Vancouver Market Summary so far for August 2016

yvr2zrh wrote a good summary of what the market looks like currently, how media headlines can get it wrong and where we might go from here:

With about 9 market days remaining in the month, we can start to look forward to how the month will end up. During the past two weeks, we have seen so many numbers in the media which highlights not only is the market falling but also that the intricacies of the underlying data are not well-understood by so many people.

The message (although correct in that the market is bad) is so poorly explained and supported and thus the true state of the market is not clear to people. So – here is the summary of what is really happening.

1.) Sales volumes will be down around 25% for unit sales but 33% for dollar volume. My model predicts a 10% decrease in condo sales (which is not much).
2.) The decrease in average price across the entire market is driven primarily by mix at this stage. It is not known how much is driven by actual price movement. Likely little so far.
3. ) Detached home sales are down significantly. This is likely more than a 50% decrease from July volumes and could be more than 65% down from August 2015.
4.) It is not clear what the benchmark price will do but we would expect that the condo price is probably almost unchanged. This market is mainly suffering from supply issues which will take time to resolve. Detached benchmarks are likely to fall in the higher-priced markets. The reason is that there will be buyers but only low-ball buyers testing sellers.
5.) The stats will be partially supported by the month-end date cutoff issues at REBGV. They report sales based on the date they get paperwork. Many of the sales recorded to beat the tax will actually show as an August sale, while they are actually July sales. Since these are from a period with a “different regulatory and tax framework” they are not really comparable and should perhaps be shown separately for accuracy purposes.
6.) Inventory will be up a bit but we still have a supply shortage in condos. Detached house MOI will increase to 10 or more.

Ultimately, this tax is taking money out at the top. It will take a couple months to see how it all plays out but the top of the market will now need to rely on move-up buyers and bona fide immigrants who are permanent residents.

We can already see the headlines coming but some of the intricacies of the stats will not really be understood.

I also have some stories from the front lines which I will get more info on next month and then write a more detailed update.

And – let’s try to keep the discussion on topic as much as possible – we have started to waiver a bit in the past few weeks.

Posted by yvr2zrh on Friday August 19th 2016 in the comments section.

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bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

pretty soon there will be no real estate left at YVR too…

Canada-China e-commerce conference features new Vancouver flight announcement
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/canada-china-e-commerce-conference-features-new-vancouver-flight-announcement

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Hooray! Direct flights to Zhengzhou!

It’s what Canadians have been clamouring for, our prayers have finally been answered!

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Zhengzhou… A city you’ve never even heard of and has a population of 10 million.

That’s more than twice the pop of BC. Think about that for a second.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Victoria’s housing market on its way to becoming the new Vancouver according to President of the Victoria Real Estate Board…

http://www.bnn.ca/video/is-victoria-s-housing-market-on-its-way-to-becoming-the-new-vancouver~936370

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

CNOOC posts first ever half-year loss on Canadian oil sands charge
http://www.bnn.ca/cnooc-posts-first-ever-half-year-loss-on-canadian-oil-sands-charge-1.554312

StrataHacker
Guest
StrataHacker

Dumb money bought Nexen right near the top. The flood of money into VanRE may be just as dumb and signal a similar top. Look forward to scooping up their divestments at pennies on the dollar?

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Oracle, I’m glad you are making money on your property. You seem really smart.

Question: with the dramatic (is a 65% decrease in sales volumes dramatic??) decline in detached sales, will developers slow down on building such that trades slow down and this ratchets through the local economy wig successive knockdown effects? And if so, will this have any negative impact on prices at all? Just wondering if the laws of economics apply.

Thank you.

Buzdovan
Guest
Buzdovan

They would certainly slow down but in this very special case they would do opposite and accelerate knowing that tens of millions of immigrants are coming to the country hence prices would go up and not to mention rents.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Man laws of ecocononics don’t apply when you have crazy amounts of immigration.

2 million tourists visited Vancouver last year. I bet you many have the new 10 year visa.

Incomes don’t matter anymore. Wealth does !

You guys on this blog are so out to lunch when you say rents and prices are tied to incomes. Go visit China and India where there is rampant population growth and see how your theory holds up Lol

franko
Member
franko

“Zhengzhou….a city you’ve never heard of and has a population of 10 million.”

The masters of loopholes have obviously found a way around the one child policy.
Might explain the overload in our maternity wards.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Sales of single-family homes in the first two weeks of the month dropped by 66 per cent compared with the same period in 2015, according to new data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The number of apartments and condos sold from Aug. 2 to 15 also dropped 42 per cent compared to the same period last year.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-region-home-sales-continue-to-slide-after-foreign-buyer-tax/article31528523/?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Tax axe falls on Metro Vancouver real estate prices”, News 880

http://www.inews880.com/syn/112/216082/business-report-tax-axe-falls-on-metro-vancouver-real-estate-prices

“Home sales were already sliding in the Lower Mainland, down from a year ago by 19% in June, and 31% in July, however the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reports that in the last two weeks of July, sales fell off by 42% over 2015.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Royal Bank ‘closely monitoring’ housing markets in Vancouver, Toronto: CEO”, Vancouver Sun
http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/royal-bank-closely-monitoring-housing-markets-in-vancouver-toronto-ceo?__lsa=4bf8-8ddb

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

Wow, “I am back!”

Sale Date: August 18, 2013
Sale Price: $5,000,000
Now asking for $11,780,000
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=R2102793

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

It was sold for $6,100,000 in May 2015

Openhousemassacare
Guest
Openhousemassacare

Sale Date – August 18, 2013
Sale Price – $5,000,000

Sale Date – May 11, 2011
Sale Price – $3,880,000

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

So many comments on this site. People can smell the blood on the street.

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Smell the blood on the streets?

Oracle says prices are set to scream higher…how do these two views match up?

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Because they’re not mutually exclusive. I admit that I don’t have a crystal ball, but in my view prices are set to decline in the near term due to the effects of the new tax and a general change in bubble psychology from greed to fear.

But in the long term prices will go back up (at least for detached), likely to even more absurd levels, as population grows but SFD supply does not. So if you’re hoping to ever own a detached house in Greater Vancouver, the next few months might be your last chance.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I agree. Last chance. Before McCallum announced the big news in October.

Basically, the economic stratification of BC is soon complete. Just like Shanghai and New Delhi, you will have the land class, the worker class, and the beggars.

Worker class going to get slaughtered with TPP and changes to TfW that McCallum says are coming. No LMO!!

Beggars are increasing. Single moms are starting to sell their bodies more and more on the Internet.

Tired
Guest
Tired

What happens with single dads? Do they go on barricades, start a revolution, get civil/religion/national war going on? You are projecting some sort of Beirut, Gaza, Siria, Nagorno-Karabakh i kind of story happening here? Local gangs, warlords, and that kind of shit what is an inevitable progression of your political-business vision. What are you going to do? Start loading weapons to defend your newly built houses, drive kids to school in armoured cars? Have bodyguards to take you to Costco? Chek beneath car whenever you go somewhere if something got planted?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Funny, Tired: your description captures a mindset that seems to go perfectly with the violent movies and other media most people watch as a matter of course.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

And so seems like it probably is on the mark, I should add.

supersogs
Member
supersogs

Vancouver Homes Sales Down 63% in First Weeks of August: Data
Market at risk of “over-correction”, warns one expert, but leading agent expects it will normalize following “emotional reaction to unexpected policy change”

http://www.rew.ca/news/vancouver-homes-sales-down-
63-in-first-weeks-of-august-data-1.2330009

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

I’m loving the hysterics on here. Soon this new batch of housing bears is going learn what every previous batch has learned the hard way.

Or maybe it’s different this time?

Vancouver is a meat grinder and if you don’t own you either remain a rent slave or get spit out somewhere beyond Hope.

It’s a tough lesson that many seem to only learn the hard way. So here we go again.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

yup, resume the pumping…correction soon to be over…LOL

http://www.am730.ca/syn/112/216126/vanre-realestate-vancouver

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

B.C. housing market to remain “robust”: Central 1 Credit Union
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/8/bc-housing-market-remain-robust-central-1-credit-u/

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

People are buying because 1 million more people in next 15 years here.

I don’t want to raise my family in a condo or townhouse.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
And you seem to take a peculiar joy in the resort-ification of this place and the ongoing displacement of people, from all walks of life, who used to be able to make a life in this community. I have no illusions that the present hype in this situation might fizzle out and turn into sound and fury signifying nothing. And I don’t condone the vapid or reactionary commentary that exists here (from any side), or the overly-easy attempts to argue that our current circumstance is a product of a single factor (“it’s all Chinese money!”, “it’s all local debt!”). But it’s kind of sad to mock people for hoping a once-livable community could return to that state, no? Particularly since, even though the problem is multi-factorial, our present unaffordability situation is a product of policy/ choice. Sore losers suck, but… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

No joy.

It’s just most people here still debate the cause of high prices. I laid it out for these people and still the debate rages 14 years on.

Sorry to say but That is the definition of dumb.

Take action against policy rather than debating away. If you guys haven’t figured it out what policy to act against, then live with it.

I’m out of here. You guys can continue your group think here and pat yourselves on the back and then be bewildered when detached prices continue their upward march.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

See ya.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
“You guys”? Group think? You’re tilting at windmills chief. While there are curious data emerging right now, I would not be the least bit surprised if this tax doesn’t amount to squat. Also: how is posting here mutually exclusive from engaging on this issue in real life? Why would you assume people here haven’t taken action? You’ve been here long enough to know for a fact that some have. You also should be very aware of the wide array of vested interests aligned against those efforts, so of course they’ve been questionable in their success. You present yourself as being on the right side of this equation having bought a while ago. If you bought a while back, you’re up. A lot. Great! But why get into the fray with so-called “basement dwelling losers who are obviously lying when they… Read more »
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

READ THIS ^^^^^^^^^^ So well said.
“Fact is, a previously livable community that accommodated lots of different people with lots of different income levels is being torched as a function of crap policy ….”

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Hyper, I think you’ve got to use a bit more imagination and not assume everyone seeks or should have a lifestyle similar to what you consider, in your short little era of human existence, to be ideal.

WARNING for posters here.
Guest
WARNING for posters here.
Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Canada’s tax agency is ‘out for blood’: not from global-income cheats, but from its leaking auditors
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2008684/canadas-tax-agency-out-blood-not-global-income?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeedutm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeed
law enforcement and principles lose out to the pursuit of easy audits against ‘the little guys’

Openhousemassacare
Guest
Openhousemassacare

In the period August 2-19, 2016, there were 984 residential properties sold, compared with 2,653 homes in the same period in 2015.

http://www.rew.ca/news/vancouver-homes-sales-down-63-in-first-weeks-of-august-data-1.2330009

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