Will dropping house values help affordability?

According to RBC, Vancouver just saw the biggest back to back deterioration in housing affordability in 26 years of record keeping. So for those thinking they might want to be able to afford property, they might like to hear that the Vancouver market is apparently ‘softening’ according to TD:

A new study suggests the two hottest real estate markets in Canada appear to be headed in different directions, as Vancouver softens and Toronto looks to maintain its momentum.

In a report published Tuesday, TD Bank said Vancouver has started what is expected to be a modest correction, which will be reinforced by the recent implementation of the land transfer tax on non-residents.

“Home prices are projected to decline by about 10 per cent in the region by mid-2017, before stabilizing later in the year,” TD said.

Of course even with that predicted price decline, it’s not exactly going to bring Vancouver house prices into the really ‘affordable’ range.  Read the full article here.

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specuskeptic
Member

On the whole, yes. For those put out of work, no.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Only 1 sale on the west side yesterday but an interesting one.

811 W. 64th Ave, 4 bed 4 bath.

Listed June 22 at 2.58M, reduced to 2.28M, sold for 1.8M.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Meanwhile, over on the east side yesterday:

Postwar 5 bed, 2 bath bungalow.

4493 Perry listed July 21 at 1.249 sold for 1.068

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

what we really need are comparable SOLDS pre-Aug 2. some of these asking prices are just plain ridiculous

Disgruntled condo owner
Guest
Disgruntled condo owner
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/as-ottawa-doubts-effectiveness-of-vancouver-tax-to-slow-housing-market-trudeau-finds-himself-in-a-bind “It could, however, be a problem for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He has promised to act on the affordability issue but is worried any full-blown attack to contain Vancouver and Toronto — the country’s two most expensive markets — would trigger declines in the rest of the economy, **or even produce a major correction**.” Christy Clark says the same idiot thing!!! Can somebody please explain how these politicians expect to “improve affordability” from housing that is FIVE TIMES overvalued (yes I’m looking at you, million dollar East Vancouver tear-down) WITHOUT “producing a major correction”???? White man (and woman) speak with forked tongue. I feel like voting NDP just for the justice factor alone, but the idiots will probably bring back photo radar. Both parties I predict will also pull this foreign buyers tax if a real correction actually does… Read more »
franko
Member
Active Member
franko

“In Ottawa, the big worry is that the 15% tax won’t be enough”

Right, and their solution is to tripple immigration from China.
WTF have we hitched our wagon to???

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

The foreign buyer’s tax should stay. People at UBC will try to get it taken away if the market corrects, because they want their junior faculty members hired from far off lands to be able to buy a house right away. (Similarly for other employers who hire large numbers of people intending to eventually make their lives in Canada). But it doesn’t take that long, only a couple years, to get permanent residence and then citizenship, so they can rent. .

patriotz
Member

“they want their junior faculty members hired from far off lands to be able to buy a house right away.”

Dropping the 15% isn’t going to get these people anywhere near close to buying.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yes, but rather than being replaced, it should be added to.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Photo radar is needed. I used to be against it but looking at what the idiot locusts are doing makes me think we need it badly.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
the market here is completely ruined. i sincerely believe much of the spring panic buying spree (which exploded out of nowhere) was due to rumors of imminent foreign tax. the fact that soon to be tax free markets in the fr valley, vanc island and even sunshine coast lit up like a bonfire after being quiet was also a telltale sign something was up. if rennie was aware, other players in the game surely knew as well. the same thing will happen again as chatter of tax unwinding/reduction/modification begins to circulate among friends, family and close associates. not only will poor locals get kicked in the teeth, they’ll also take it up the a$$ when prices hit new highs in 2018. what i believe is taking place right now is a coordinated effort among industry players and msm to spread… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Houses are not stocks. A few insiders cannot buy enough of them to make cause sudden price changes over large areas. The island and the valley went up because ordinary punters were desperate to get the last affordable places within driving distance of Vancouver.

patriotz
Member

“what is the NDP going to come up with at this stage of the game?”

It isn’t going to come up with anything at this stage, except to criticize the 15% tax as inadequate, which it has done already. Reason is that nobody knows what the state of the market will be next spring. Wait until then to see a concrete proposal from the NDP.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

which is why were being bombarded by all kinds of stories about a housing crash and what not. it remains to be seen if any of this is true and christy’s plan to make homes more affordable actually made a difference. imho she’ll just say it worked and give everyone (who is long RE) what they really want but are too afraid to admit

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i disagree. many of the outer lying areas were completely quiet (despite vanc going gangbusters) for many years. early in the year “something” changed and all of a sudden there were bidding wars in places like gibsons and stories of foreign investors buying handfuls of properties site unseen. so you honestly think that if another change in legislation is coming next year that some close to the matter wont leak the info to their friends (who will in turn tell two friends and so on)? come on now, look who were talking about…

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Huge injection of money from China causing ripple effect?

Super Rich Chinese Houses owner
Guest
Super Rich Chinese Houses owner

Dont worry Rich Chinese from Beijing and Shanghai will goggle up in few days.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets headed in different directions: TD”, Vancouver Sun
http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/vancouver-and-toronto-real-estate-markets-headed-in-different-directions-td

“A new study suggests the two hottest real estate markets in Canada appear to be headed in different directions, as Vancouver softens and Toronto looks to maintain its momentum.”

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Oh, FFS! In other news, there has never been a better time to buy or sell a house, and TD will be happy to help you.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Canadian Cancer agency spinoff faces fraud allegations
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2011211/canadian-cancer-agency-spinoff-faces-fraud

“…Chinese immigrant businesswoman is suing a troubled BC Cancer Agency spinoff company after a board member allegedly defrauded her out of more than C$200,000 by promising to help fast-track her immigration application…”

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

The issue with immigration from China is just a mess, with frauds, lying, cheats, etc and that’s why the government have to step back. Instead of stepping back, Baby
trudeau took a leap forward and Canada will never be the same. I can only compare it to Cuba releasing criminals refugees to the US in the 80’s.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Why oh why can’t McCallum et al understand there comes a point of saturation. It’s really hard to deal with the drag on everything, all systems, education systems, health systems, traffic, insurance, housing. He doesn’t have a clue because he doesn’t live in Vancouver.

patriotz
Member

I would say he has a clue because he lives in Toronto which has as much immigration per capita and higher net domestic migration. That’s not meant as a defense of his policies, just pointing out that Vancouver isn’t quite that special.

franko
Member
Active Member
franko

If he has a clue, he obviously doesn’t give a rat’s ass about Vancouver. Either way, we’re stuck with him for another 3 years unless he falls off the wagon and stumbles in front of a bus.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Maybe someone could invite him to a speech at UBC in a huge auditoriam where the public could attend. His topic could be why we need to have three times as many people entering from China in the next year and there could be an agreement ahead of time that any question from the audience that was politiely phrased about housing, ICBC, traffic, use of health care or education would be addressed or promised to be addressed at a later time.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Trudeau wants to join the China led Asian infrastructure investment bank. This man is selling us all out.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Toronto is a very very different city from Vancouver in size and economic robustness and history and cultural influences (including first nations and history of settlement) and geographic and climate influences, relationship to the wilderness and situatedness to farmlands and other major urban centres. I think the amount of immigrants it can absorb over X amount of time is not necessarily the same number as amount of immigrants we can absorb per X amount of time. I used to live in Toronto.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Eastern Canada doesn’t have a clue about us.

david
Guest
david

N one in the world has a clue about Vancouver….except that it has expensive housing.

There’s a glaring economic message in that little factoid.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Nothing is going to change until politics comes down to the people (street) and shit hits national and economic (existential) fan.

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest

zolo stats got a lot of media attention lately. What do you think?
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

at the end of the day these folks are just another bunch of real estate sharks and would take anything they say (either positive or negative) with a grain of salt

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Thanks BPOM!!

Wow, this could mean that current (future) comps will all be to the downside…realtors can use this to encourage sellers to be ‘more realistic’ with masking prices due to comparable weakening!

Still, if Oracle lists his house, will there be a massive bidding war?

That’s the real question.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

It’s ALWAYS about “the comps”.

Kim
Guest
Kim
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Got to love those cute little dips.

xyz
Guest
xyz

China doesn’t want our canola apparently due to contamination concerns, so should we ban all cash inflows from China into our residential housing until we are 100% sure of it’s source?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Contamination with what? The US and other countries import it with no contamination concerns. Are you joking?

YVR
Guest
YVR

That would make China happy. They would prefer to keep the money in China.

xyz
Guest
xyz

@YVR

It’s a deal….someone call Trudeau.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
124
Sold
88
TI:9280

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Did spacetard’s rude post disappear?

It doesn’t seem to be here anymore.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Why would you put lipstic on the pig at our expense?

“Justin Trudeau suggests China improve its image by tightening ties with Canada”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-china-day-1-1.3741070

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Canada, Trudeau added, can help China when it comes to governance and rule-of-law issues as well as global fears about the “tremendous appetite” of Chinese entrepreneurs and companies as they seek out foreign investments and partnerships.

“This isn’t always well received by populations and governments around the world,” he said.”

Tremendous appetite? Not well recieved?

Holy shit, if I didn’t know better I’d swear he just called them locusts in a very diplomatic way.

Better speech than I expected, I must say. We’ll see how he does tomorrow when he meets with the head gangsters/vermin from the communist party.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

At the expense of Canada’s image

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

He’s selling association with Canada’s positive reputation in the area of human rights.

YVR
Guest
YVR

CTV News reporting tonight changes to the Quebec Immigrant Investor Program. New applicants will be rejected if there is any indication they will not be settling and staying in Quebec. This includes rejecting those who already own property or have family outside Quebec. Just another nail in the coffin for YVR RE.

YVR
Guest
YVR
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Awesome!

If they follow through on their promise then all applicants from china will be immediately disqualified.

KEEP THEM OUT!!!

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Wow if this isn’t just lip service I would say this is a really big deal.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

When you think about it, it makes sense for Quebec to crack down on the QIIP cheats because it would force these monkeys to set up residence in Quebec thous helping their bewildered housing industry and buys lots of brownie points from the rest of Canada.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

It would be terrific if this change could apply retroactively. It could clean up a boatload of crap which polluted Vancouver so badly over several years.

D Trump
Guest
D Trump

Can you imagine taking out the lie detector on people? or at best, there is one more box to check on the application. The BS index has hit a new high here.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

It isn’t “just one more box”. They have to answer lots of different kinds of questions some of which get at the same information in different ways, so inconsistencies can be noticed. If they lie about where they own property or how long they’ve spent in Canada or location, or employment etc., they will lose their PR status.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Prices for Vancouver mansions drop, but realtors don’t expect a trend”, Vancouver Sun
http://vancouversun.com/business/mortgages/prices-for-vancouver-mansions-drop-but-realtors-dont-expect-a-trend

“Less than a month after the B.C. government imposed a 15-per-cent tax on foreign buyers of residential real estate, sellers of a handful of multi-million mansions have slashed their asking price, in one case by millions.”

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

If it is like the 51 million home that was sold last year, whats a million or two.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver foreign buyers tax was the right move: Scotiabank CEO”, BNN
http://www.bnn.ca/vancouver-foreign-buyers-tax-was-the-right-move-scotiabank-ceo-1.557998

“The bank is taking its “foot off the gas a little bit” when it comes to mortgage lending in Canada’s hottest real estate market, he said Tuesday. It’s a move Porter credits to a “longer term perspective of our balance sheet and our asset quality.””

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s housing in “extreme bubble” says ex-Lehman exec”, Canadian Rea Estate News

http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/canadas-housing-in-extreme-bubble-says-exlehman-exec-212955.aspx

“A former executive of Lehman Brothers says that Canada’s housing market is building to a huge bubble surpassing that in the US when its bubble burst.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Runaway housing growth in Toronto and Vancouver: TD”, BNN video

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-runaway-housing-growth-in-toronto-and-vancouver-td/article31611288/

“Derek Burleton, VP & Deputy Chief Economist, TD Bank Group talks about TD’s latest housing report.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Airbnb bonus not helping housing rental shortage in Vancouver: Expert
http://www.news1130.com/2016/08/31/airbnb-vancouver-rental-shortage/

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Chinese entity created immediately before $2.1-billion offer for InnVest
http://tinyurl.com/htpgdlz

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

This paragraph – the irony…

“It has been fascinating, in the interim, to observe the angst the tax has stirred in the same real estate sector that had been insisting foreign nationals had little to do with the spectacular rise in house prices. Today, many realtors are suggesting sales have fallen off a cliff since the tax was introduced. Prices are cratering. Locusts should be arriving any day now.”

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