Ban Tuesday

We’ve banned IPs for Matsui/saul and openhousemassacre as those two seem to have degenerated into threats and insults without any other content.  When you come back maybe you could think before you post.

There are a bunch of you that are on the edge as well – remember when we discussed real estate? Poo-flinging monkeys are funny in small doses, but no-one in their right mind wants to debate them.

How ’bout we start off the school year with an attempt to be civil?

 

 

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[…] someone can inform us as to where this graph originated- both Newcomer and YVR posted this in yesterdays […]

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It was in a comment on Greater Fool. (I know, not exactly the most trustworthy source for financial analysis but, on the other hand, look at how pretty it is.)

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

All of these numbers seem odd but it’s interesting to look at another place with a similar crisis.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/07/why-auckland-is-leading-the-worlds-housing-market-boom

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“So who owns these properties?

Increasingly, not New Zealanders. Foreign investment in Auckland has boomed under the National party government (this is not confined to Auckland). According to Core Logic in 2012, 37% of buyers were investors. Today that proportion is nearly 50%, a significant number of whom are Chinese.

Kiwis living in Auckland are now having to choose between relocating to a more affordable part of the country (Hawke’s Bay, Tauranga and New Plymouth are popular choices for those leaving Auckland) or giving up dreams of home-ownership and settling for a lifetime of renting, which isn’t cheap either. ”

Different country, same scourge.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“B.C. government will not reconsider tax on foreign homebuyers, says Christy Clark” CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/christy-clark-foreign-homebuyers-premier-september-1.3750750

“While the premier said changes to the new legislation are not an option, the government will be doing even more to try to address housing affordability in Metro Vancouver.

“We need to make it easier for first-time homebuyers to get into the market, and that’s not just about price.””

Help to buy coming? To help prop up prices?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Whatever helps her developer overlords, I suppose.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

“We need to make it easier for first-time homebuyers to get into the market, and that’s not just about price.”

Translation: We want to “increase affordability” without lowering prices, so we will offer more rebates to builders and grants to first time buyers. In other words, give people more rope to hang themselves with.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Toronto area’s home sales, average prices soared in August”, CTV

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/toronto-area-s-home-sales-average-prices-soared-in-august-1.3061275

“A record number of homes were sold in the Greater Toronto Area last month as listings continued to dwindle, the city’s real estate board said Wednesday.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 0.5 per cent, predicts ‘substantial rebound’ in second half”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-holds-interest-rate-at-0-5-per-cent

“the Bank of Canada is not budging from its interest-rate stand, saying Wednesday it is prepared to weigh the heavy impact of the devastating Alberta wildfires and weaker exports against the anticipated boost from consumer spending and recouped oil output.”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

In north Surrey, I can tell you via my analysis that prices for detached homes are down 10% ($70,000) from the ridiculous levels of 2 months ago.

Still, they are up about $150-200,000 from this time last year.

space889
Member
space889

So what’s going on with that house you are planning to build?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

being built right now

space889
Member
space889

I guess the 50 cents party have successfully penetrated Quora completely? Look at all those China favoring answers. Probably enough to cause BPOM to blow a blood vein or two.

Would China have a better view of democracy if they looked to Europe instead of the US?

https://www.quora.com/Would-China-have-a-better-view-of-democracy-if-they-looked-to-Europe-instead-of-the-US

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

@space4+4+4+49
Joy was conspicuously absent…. China has made it abundantly clear that the next election for Hong Kong’s chief executive, due in 2017, will be rigged. The only candidates allowed to stand will be those approved by the Communist Party in Beijing

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21615583-territorys-citizens-must-not-give-up-demanding-full-democracyfor-their-sake-and

space889
Member
space889

Because it’s always a good idea to allow people whose loyalty maybe suspect or even bought by other countries to be elected as leader of a province?

Tim
Guest
Tim

What would “loyalty” be to in that context?

I can remember both a premier of BC and a federal minister calling environmentalists “traitors” to Canada, and questioning their motives, for daring to make something other than money their highest value. They couldn’t conceive of it. Just didn’t fit in their little minds.

I’m starting to suspect something similar is going on with you.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

“The agreement stipulated that under Chinese rule the HKSAR would enjoy a high degree of autonomy, except in matters of foreign relations and defense, and that the social and economic systems as well as the lifestyle in Hong Kong would remain unchanged for 50 years after 1997. Many observers, however, expressed considerable skepticism about China’s pledge to abide by the “one country, two systems” plan outlined in the agreement. They feared that China would drastically curtail the rights and freedoms of Hong Kong residents.”
https://www.britannica.com/topic/reversion-to-Chinese-sovereignty-1020544

Tim
Guest
Tim

Looks like they all from “Godfree Roberts”, a poster so prolific and loopily pro-China that I doubt he’s even a real person.

space889
Member
space889

Right, because no one who has any shred of intelligence could possibly be pro-China. And Godfree Roberts, such a deal giveaway too.

Tim
Guest
Tim

Anyone who was such uniformly born-again-zealot for the EU, Canada, usa or Russia would be equally suspect. This guy is is much so, he’s a joke. And yes, reading that you accept him at face value has me freshly revaluating your judgement.

Tim
Guest
Tim

“Right, because no one who has any shred of intelligence could possibly be pro-China. …people whose loyalty maybe suspect or even bought by other countries …”

You need to read your own posts.

space889
Member
space889

When is China’s economy going to crash?

https://www.quora.com/When-is-Chinas-economy-going-to-crash

MarKoz
Member

Crispy takes credit, or does she?
“The prices were going up way too fast and if we helped slow that down, that’s good,” she said.
Ms. Clark said it is too early to tell what the impact of the foreign-buyers tax and a luxury sales tax on homes priced over $2-million has had on the market.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/slowdown-shows-vancouver-foreign-buyer-tax-working-as-intended-bc-premier/article31732034/

What is the luxury tax on homes over $2 million? I don’t recall hearing about that before.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

The property transfer tax is 2% on any amount over 2m.
“Luxury tax”

space889
Member
space889

Should be graudated like income tax, 1% for every $1M over $2M until it hits say 10% or 15%? But how would new construction be taxed? I mean Chip Wilson $50M mansion he’s building, I don’t think he’s paying any luxury tax on that?

patriotz
Member

It is graduated:

1% on the first $200,000,
2% on the portion of the fair market value greater than $200,000 and up to and including $2,000,000, and
3% on the portion of the fair market value greater than $2,000,000.

www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/taxes/property-taxes/property-transfer-tax/understand

And remember, it’s a tax on the transfer of the title of a property, not on construction. So Chip would pay PTT on whatever he paid pre-construction.

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Thanks PaulB!

Likewise, wow!!

Oracle, did you list your house that is under construction? If not, why such a surge?

Guess it could just be that it’s beginning of month and after a long weekend.

But…wow….that’s a lot of listings…if we see a surge into 10,000 plus listings and tepid sales, I imagine things could get very interesting quickly.

Look forward to what Oracle has to say. With a name like that, he clearly has worthy insights and we should perhaps pay heed to his postulations.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s not really a lot of listings, take a look at the New Listing Count graph here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dYtxpv5aEMF-Ccyyb8sKmtHI4nQL8rqP4vEVxMx4VUc/edit#gid=0
and 10K would be a low number.

Oncebittwiceshy
Guest
Oncebittwiceshy

Paul is very generous with his stats. A big thank you, Paul.

I was actually a lot more interested in the sales. It would appear that we had an average of 42 sales per day over the long weekend.

What I find even more interesting is that there is not another 3 consecutive day period going back to 2012 on the chart, where sales were so low.

126 sales is indeed a dubious record.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Can’t get enough of me can you?

With regards to house, trusses are up and windows installed. Next is shingles, exterior siding, electrical and insulation. will keep you posted.

Do you even realize that prices would have to crash 70% for me to be ‘underwater’ ……meaning my entry point into real estate over a decade and half ago?

space889
Member
space889

Rain season is starting, better get those sidings and shingles on fast!

paulb
Member

New
444 lucky number? 😉
Sold
126

TI:9224

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Tim
Guest
Tim

Wow

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Had me excited until I looked up last years tuesday following labour day.

New Listings 452
Price Changes 79
Sold Listings 173
TI:11792

UBC in crisis mode
Guest

Anyway big jump compared to last month, very likely duped by all the media.

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

Meaningless August is always slow.

The fact that we’re trending behind last year means that there isn’t a lot of downward pressure on prices. We’re entering a holding pattern.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

You sure about those numbers?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Never mind, they are correct.

Oncebittwiceshy
Guest
Oncebittwiceshy

Not to question Paul on his stats, but Rob Chipman is only showing 117 sales … only 9 sale difference….ugly either way.

Date Sales Avg. List Avg.sale
2016-09-06 117 $794,659 $782,184

Tcg
Guest
Tcg

We’ll 8 less listings but 47 less sales! That’s a significant inventory jump. Prices won’t be too sticky if that pace of listings continues.

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Fair enough.

That said, I continue to eagerly anticipate today’s numbers (and tomorrow’s and so on and so on)…

Trends start somewhere and if listings pour on post long weekend that could be an interesting signals.

That said, I hear ya…many a false start from reading too much into too little.

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Really curious to see if listings increase or decrease today!

Oracle vs BPOM

I know which side I would like to see win:-)

But will have to wait with baited breath to find out…

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

I doubt if today will be any “harbinger”. Best to wait a few weeks to see the general trend.

space889
Member
space889

Who cares? With inventory this low, good luck trying to score a deal on anything good or decent.

different this time
Guest
different this time

Looks at this realtors great pics. Slanted dark pics of the interior taken with an old broken I-phone. ridiculous
http://www.realtylink.org/listings/view2.cfm?url=http://images.realtor.ca/listing/reb89/medres/8/r2105008_12.jpg

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Thanks BPOM…

Looking forward to seeing today’s stats.

Oracle, you truly think net listings will dive that significantly this month?

Should be interesting to watch this battle on inventory levels unfold this month, let’s see if the surge or tank as you believe.

I have no idea what will happen, will watch eagerly.

Oncebittwiceshy
Guest
Oncebittwiceshy

Grim 4 minutes 58 seconds ago I’ve attempted to do Elliott Wave analysis on Vancouver real estate for awhile, we’ve certainly had a blow off top of some kind. Grim, Nice analysis. The blow off top of some kind ……….. was the fear of being priced out of your own country ….. disappearing. In a normal market people do buy for many reasons. In a manipulated market, where real estate brokers have created this fear of Chinese taking over the city of Vancouver and the media picked it up and broadcast it throughout the province, it’s another matter. People were buying because they were afraid that if they waited to buy when they could afford to (realistically) they would be priced out. I couldn’t count the number of Global news reports we have seen over the last several years which… Read more »

Grim
Guest

I’ve attempted to do Elliott Wave analysis on Vancouver real estate for awhile, we’ve certainly had a blow off top of some kind. In my view, its either topped for good, or we have another thrust higher as long as 1.38ish million doesn’t get breached. If price action goes below that previous thrust up from 2013-2014, then the chances are very high we have reached a significant top for years to come. Price action is nearly guaranteed to visit the 2010 lows, and perhaps the 2008 lows.

Grim
Guest
Grim
Guest

Sorry, here is one that you can click: http://goo.gl/9OQKGp

Also, I had a typo, I meant 2012 lows, not 2010.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

jhj

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

My prediction is prices remain flat this month and we test 7K inventory levels.

Hopefully my imposters are IP banned. Truth apparently hurts too much.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Oh, I don’t know about your inventory prediction.

Summer is over and everyone’s back in town, new listings are coming in fast on the first day of school.

So far today we have 26 detached listings on Vancouver’s east and west sides, with 2 sales.

I think inventory will resume rising from here on out.

franko
Member
franko

If the latest ban means more uninhibited baiting by Spaceshit, I’m not sure we’re any farther ahead.

space889
Member
space889

What baiting? When did team BPOM become stupid enough to respond to race baiting? I thought all their posts and opinions are honest expressions of their true feelings arising out of their love for Canada and hatred for all things evil, communist and Chinese?

Nom Nom Nom
Guest
Nom Nom Nom

Space… I wish you had been around during McCarthyism.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Let’s all just sit back this month and the listing and price drops come in. The REBGV can only manipulate numbers for so long.. including sales from frantic overseas buyers before the tax came into affect into the August numbers is a twist. September will hopefully shed more light on the extent of this correction. I wouldnt be suprised if we dont see Januarys high prices for another 10 years. Be prepared for a 30-50% actual price reduction over the next ~2years.

PAULB – could you please include ‘Price Change Down’ in your postings. I believe you used to include them?

space889
Member
space889

Thank goodness for not overstepping the censorship line and still allow thoughtful posts about nuking China and killing 1 billion+ innocent people, or calling them locusts, scum, thieves, subhuman garbage, etc. I was so worried for a second about the total clampdown on freedom of expression and discussions.

tim
Guest
tim

Careful, Dr. Evil’s finger is probably hovering over the button for your chair.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Study: 45% of 2015 purchases in Shenzhen under false pretenses
http://english.caixin.com/2016-09-06/100985972.html
Wondering if the Lower mainland foreign buyers tax with work here?