Collapse Scenario in Chart Form

Perhaps someone can inform us as to where this graph originated- both Newcomer and YVR posted this in yesterdays comments.

This is an inflation adjusted chart showing average peak detached house prices and where prices would have to go to match a couple of different historical price collapses in Vancouver:

yvr-housing-2016

The original image is posted here on cloudup.

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Grim
Guest

I am not sure why inflation matters, no asset class chart in the world uses inflation adjusted prices to determine where prices are headed. Have you ever seen analysis of the S&P 500 inflation adjusted to figure out where prices are going to find support?

tim
Guest
tim

Stocks are not a basic necessity of life, supported by wages. Housing, food, electricity, etc are.

Grim
Guest

you are kidding yourself if you think that the housing market isn’t being traded like a stock market.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Inflation matters because support is tied to incomes, which are closely inflation-coupled.

Wallie
Guest
Wallie

The Shiller P/E jumps to mind. In fact S&P 500 forecasts are almost always given as real return which is inflation adjusted.

The Man
Guest
The Man

Inflation matters as any loss in the value of money needs to be taken into account.

If you bought a home that increase in value at, say, 2% per year, but inflation was 3% per year, you are actually losing money on your investment. (IE 1% loss per year in real dollars).

Most economists use real dollars ( IE adjusted for inflation).

BTW – inflation adjusted S&P 500 charts are all over the web.

http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

patriotz
Member

” you are actually losing money on your investment ”

You’re not taking rental value into account. Note that car rental companies make money renting out cars that they sell for considerably less than they paid for.

Dave
Member

Auckland has a housing ‘boom’ too. I’m sure it’s just a coincidence, but foreign money seems to be flowing into their properties too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/07/why-auckland-is-leading-the-worlds-housing-market-boom

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Some detailed numbers here for August in the pdf’s.

http://dexterrealty.com/current-market-conditions.html

Note the soaring MOI for detached in HAM infected areas, as well as an inversion of the average vs. benchmark prices where average is now far lower for a change.

space889
Member
space889

And the sad thing is you still can’t afford one and prices are still much higher than when you first started complaining about high housing prices 8 or 10 years ago on Real Estate talk forum before being banned there, years before Jonny Horton. Quite an accomplishment I must say.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I see that Pope’s appeal for calm isn’t going to last long considering that there’s one shameless fuck here who can’t help but constantly instigate.

space889
Member
space889

Stating facts is instigation now?

DDT
Guest
DDT

The shitbag space wasn’t banned on Tuesday? Perhaps VCI getting inclined towards locusts and their advocates lately?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

No doubt the spaceborg’s goal is to normalize its antidemocratic antiVancouver disrespectful commentary so that eventually the people who become out raged by it as any normal decent person should are the ones who get banned.

space889
Member
space889

Sorry….I will redouble my efforts and put more efforts into learning from our great sage BPOM.

Slava
Guest
Slava

How about shutting up for a long while?

space889
Member
space889

But my teacher don’t and I must learn and practice what he demonstrates!

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Stupidest thing I have ever read. How in the hell do you compare unit sales in 2016 to averages dating back to 1989??? I could see maybe using an average back 5 years but almost 30 is rediculous. House sales are down and they are down ALOT. These realtors are really getting desperate trying to squeeze every last sale they can.

space889
Member
space889

I’m sure this chart is giving the Bears multiple wet dreams every night. But unfortunately there are quite a few things wrong with this chart. Take some basic stats courses and you will see why. Things aren’t nearly as bad or outrageous as this chart suggests.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Such as what, Mr. know-it-all?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

He’ll let you know once he’s finished his basic stats courses.

space889
Member
space889

Read a few books or even wiki articles and use your brain a little. I promise it wouldn’t hurt as much as you think.

Here’s a hint: x = {1, 2, 3}, y = {1, 10, 100}

-space899
Guest
-space899

I get it… space889 figures that it should be a logarithmic graph, meaning that it should be a declining curve line. That means you are all wrong because space889 would need the curve to grow 50% annually in order for him to be happy. Denial is great, and he feels entitled when things are going great. Wait until the tide goes out.

DDT
Guest
DDT

Webmaster, please ban uncontrolled chinaman. He is way bigger disgrace than any of banned people. Also his racist and insulting comments are quite disturbing for some of us.

tim
Guest
tim

Says the poster who uses the word “chinaman”?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

What’s the politically correct word to call a man from china?

Frenchmen everywhere want to know.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Always happy to educate the ignorant.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinaman_(term)

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Doesn’t answer my question.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

DDT is part of the spaceborg, right?

Sell Now!
Guest
Sell Now!
Have you been putting all of your money into your house and you are near retirement? Did you tell yourself long ago that you would be happy to sell at prices that are even lower than today’s market value? What are you waiting for? Now is the time to sell. The market has dropped and it looks like it will continue to do so. Why are you so greedy? Greed is what always kills investors. You want what your neighbor’s got in spring, but you will not get it in the current market and there’s a high chance it will not come back for many years. Price aggressively for a sale and ensure that you will have a good retirement. The market has turned, the first ones out will win in this market.
tim
Guest
tim

Up to around 1999 I’d been wrong about the tech bubble for years. Friends with stock or options would brag constantly, roll their eyes. Of course, they had picked long term winners, right? One day they started to look glum, and stopped boasting.

Not one of them sold on the way down. Not one. They rode it all the way to the bottom.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

It’s ALWAYS better to be wrong, wrong, wrong and THEN right rather than the other way around.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

A friend sold his place six weeks ago. He picked a number that was about 100 K below the asking prices of neighborhood comps. His place sold for 10 K under asking (I guess the buyers had their pride). None of the six other comps sold. If you want to sell something, be the best deal on the market. It’s that simple.

space889
Member
space889

So basically follow Garth Turner’s advice?

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

What NO!!!! Krusty describes Van RE as a “housing bubble” this morning on @CKNW .

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Does this mean Rennie will tell her to do her own slush fundraising from now on?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Did she sell all her real estate prior to the tax?

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid
This is a chart I made to understand the relationship between affordability and detached supply across Canada. http://pasteboard.co/6EXYNUwk.png Each dot represents a Canadian city. The Y axis is affordability, defined as the percentage of median income required to buy. It takes into account local incomes, interest rates, and detached prices. All affordability data come from the recent RBC affordability report. The X axis represents the relative level of detached housing stock in each city, defined as the number of people per detached house. Data comes from the 2011 census since the 2016 data has not been released yet. The line is a simple linear regression. The correlation is 0.79, which is generally considered high. Some thoughts: As expected, affordability gets worse as the you move to the right of the graph, which is to say that when you have more… Read more »
Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Oops, meant to say “more and more unaffordable”. Damn auto-correct.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s a nice chart. Thanks! It would be interesting to see some US cities added.

Bubble
Guest
Bubble

Great chart, thanks.
Agreed that Chinese money will continue to flow in.

Slava
Guest
Slava

Chinese Money for the local real estate prostitutes until there are no more locals holding or selling real estate, ie: New Coast, etc.
What would these Vancouver Boomers, and some select others do without Chinese Money?
Vancouver economy is selling real estate to Chinese Money. That is something to be surely proud of..:)

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

It is disappointing that the NDP choose to criticize the foreign buyers tax when the tax has support from almost 90% of the population. Instead of being critical of this tax, they should hammer the Libs on rental conditions such as fixed length tenancies and reno-victions. By trying to make political hay out of a tax that’s supported by the majority of the population they are shooting themselves in the foot. This is how they will lose the next election.

http://www.news1130.com/2016/09/07/ndp-leader-writes-open-letter-to-the-premier-over-foreign-buyers-tax/

As far as the article is concerned; if by prices remaining stable they mean average prices dropping by $300,000 then what would unstable prices look like?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Horgan makes no suggestions on how the tax should be modified.

This isn’t leadership. Step down, Horgan and let Eby take over.

patriotz
Member

“It is disappointing that the NDP choose to criticize the foreign buyers tax when the tax has support from almost 90% of the population. ”

He’s saying the tax isn’t tough enough. What % of the population would agree with that? And I think he’s smart not to take a specific position now – the election is 8 months away and what looks good now may not look good then.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

In that article, I don’t see where he is saying what you say he says about it not being “tough enough”.

patriotz
Member

“her actions have done nothing to make the rental or purchase of a home more affordable,” says Horgan in a statement. He highlights loopholes in the law which allow foreign investors to find ways around paying the levy.

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Oracle va BPOM

Wonder if listings will grow today or start the dramatic plunge Oracle has forecasted?

Should know tonight.

donald t
Guest
donald t

Do you have a point to make here?

Slava
Guest
Slava

That’s because Billy Bonger is probably Oracle or just a career boot licker…

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Air China warns of London’s ‘Indian, Pakistani and black’ neighbourhoods
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/07/row-as-air-china-warns-on-londons-indian-pakistani-and-black-nei/

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It’s not racist because Pakistani is a nationality, not a race. Amiright?!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

What about black?

I’m not familiar with that nationality.

space889
Member
space889

But they aren’t talking about all black people in the world, so it isn’t racist as per your definition.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

They say many Chinese investors who are now citizens here are actually selling their homes. Because many of them came through the QIIP and had purchased homes in Vancouver before applying, those homes were not declared in the application process. In light of the recent 15% tax they fear CRA will crack down and come after them for not declaring the home purchase(s) during the application process.
Part of the QIIP program, when applying, mandates that you can’t already own Canadian real estate elsewhere. If you declare you will get denied. Quebec wants you to invest in Quebec and stay in Quebec. So any real estate purchased elsewhere in Canada before applying for the QIIP is generally not declared. You can see how this is an issue amongst locals.
http://www.vancitycondoguide.com/foreign-investor-gives-insights-on-new-tax/
Please Quebec, check your QIIP list against BC’s Land Registry. please, pretty please.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Many lying on the application process from investors of QIIP! Why are we putting up with this crap! We want honest, hard working immigrants, not cheats and money launders.

space889
Member
space889

Because Canadian govt want the $$$$$ these people bring in to spend in the economy. Look how fast those wanted corrupt officials get kicked out of Canada once their money dries up.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Part of the QIIP program, when applying, mandates that you can’t already own Canadian real estate elsewhere. If you declare you will get denied. Quebec wants you to invest in Quebec and stay in Quebec. So any real estate purchased elsewhere in Canada before applying for the QIIP is generally not declared.”

So they lied on their immigration application, as is their custom.

How is that not grounds for deportation?

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

If this is grounds for deportation and if JT have the backbone to do it, we’re looking at many 10’s of thousand along with their families.
I would say lets do it.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Sounds like renaissance.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Why not also have a rule that if they buy RE outside of Que during their PR, that they lose their $800K.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

If they lie on their application, which they all do, they should be deported AND forfeit their $800K.

franko
Member
franko

Capital leaving China at fastest pace since January.
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2016/09/07/capital-leaving-china-at-fastest-pace-since-January/
Must be one helluva log jamb as more and more doors are being slammed shut, like our 15% tax, the CRA going after income tax evaders, Quebec finally agreeing to cooperate with BC to tighten the cracks in the QIIP, and our Moonbeam threatening to penalize vacant homes (WTF ever happened to that?)
Could any of this really have happened without our backlash?
Now, if we could just get McCallum and Justin to pull in the right direction there might be some hope.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Still too early to say but I hope it will be true so we can get some affordability back to our housing. Keeping my fingers crossed. We do not need foreigners taking advantage of our generosity.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

One thing that needs to happen is that we need to look at segments of our economy that have grown dependent on foreign money and investor immigrants. There are segments in other areas besides the housing industry. We need to find ways for these segments to sustain themselves without being entirely and completely dependent on immigrant investors. Otherwise there will continue to be pressure even if with respect to the housing industry proper some policies are put in place. imho

space889
Member
space889

So how many locals can buy $300K super cars, or spend thousands on luxury products? Probably not enough to sustain the existing industries.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Many locals would be able as soon as Canada legalizes corruption and criminal of all kind, therefore set fair competitive environment with ofshore Chinese.

space889
Member
space889

I’m not as successful and rich as xyz, therefore xyz must be a lying cheating scumbag.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Bingo.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Define “successful”, Shut. Do you even have anyone in your acquaintance whose parents or grandparents were millionaires or multi-millionares and who care not a wit for Ferrari and Chanel products? The crass materialism you and Space evince is just the most disgusting comment on the possible heights to which mankind can ascend

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

heights = depths in your case of course, Shut/Space

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

“So how many locals can buy $300K super cars, or spend thousands on luxury products?”
So how many space889-types have a clue how to have a happy or meaningful life other than by buying expensive cars, clothes, watches and houses?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

I predict a collapse. A collapse in amateurs real estate analysts. We are at peak blogger, the last time this happened a strong surge in the market decimated the housing blogosphere and we seem to be setting up for the same scenario again.

Of course the root cause of this lies with government policy. Critical thinking is sorely missing from our educational institutions.

tim
Guest
tim

“Vancouver bubble” on googletrends is at a record high and still climbing fast:

https://www.google.ca/trends/explore?date=all&q=vancouver%20bubble

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

what’s your point?

i assume you’re using this as evidence of a bubble popping? people made the exact same argument in 2006 and 2012.

name one thing search keywords predicted.

franko
Member
franko

No sign of critical thinking whatsoever in your diagnosis as anyone with a lick of common sense would realise by now that the pendulum had swung to utter insanity of unaffordability.
Give your head a shake. The gig is up.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

if it’s unafordable why are sales inline with the 10 year average?

obviously there are plenty of people who can afford it. just not you.

give your head a shake.

Slava
Guest
Slava

Give your head a shake.
The average income in lower mainland is 50 000.
Most cannot afford due to that fact and the corresponding fact that a crack shack costs 1.3 mil.
The buyers who are affording it, have Chinese income.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

And?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Some people with $50k incomes can afford $1.3m homes.

Biggest fallacy amongst posters here is the assumption that every buyer is a first-timer rather than a mover-upper with equity.

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Hypermegabull

So, I assume then that you believe Oracle will be proven correct with his forecast of flat prices this month and a slashing of inventory to 7,000?

That’s pretty bold.

What makes you so confident?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

McCallum and Trudeau gonna triple the in take of the Canadian Experience Class immigration stream. That’s where foreign students become PR. So those who had door slammed shut via 15% tax will be shown a wider door to get PR.

Get educated rather than spewing naive comments. You buddy are not very bright.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yeah that’s an example of an industry outside the housing industry that is really integrated with investor immigrant and foreign money processes. Some energy needs to be put into figuring out how these industries can function and thrive without foreign money/investor immigrant

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

and why would you assume that?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The elephant in the real estate room is foreign students.

28% of UBC first year students are foreigners paying $31,000 per year in tuition alone. Now add to that housing, transportation, food, car, etc and you get the picture. Local workers are competing with this wealth for rental units.

28%! Why aren’t these spaces for citizens? There would be riots in Europe if this happened.

Who paid for the UBC infrastructure ? And who gets to use it ?

Only a revolution by the workers is going to stop this Bs.

chilled
Member
chilled

Not gonna happen, Canadians have been conditioned for 40yrs now. We’d apologize to an invading army if they stepped in dog shit. Canada is broken and we will go down as the only country in the world that treats foreign nationals better than our own.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Foreign students often subsidize the locals. This is the case at many universities worldwide.

Tim
Guest
Tim

That’s BS in practice. The provincial government just starves funding a little more in response to the foreign student revenue.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

No they don’t. Domestic tuition rising faster than inflation. Now at $6300/year. Local students are paying their way.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So locals pay only 20% of what foreign students pay then? That’s a subsidy.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Thats what they’ve historically paid. Their parents taxes built the infrastructure. Government taxes pay the rest.

WE DONT NEED FOREIGN STUDENTS!!

You think foreign students pay for the infrastructure of UBC that was built by citizens? To do so would be to charge them at least $100,000 and then i would say they pay their way.

On another note, what about the local kid whose career never gets off the ground because of a foreign student. Enough is enough…people are speaking out without being afraid.

space889
Member
space889

How about the career of local kids who never get off because of those damned immigrants or their kids? Maybe we should kick out the immigrants too?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Are you with us loyal Canadians or are you against us?

nufio
Guest
nufio
lol … the cost of educating a students is not 6300$ a year. and its less than 31000$ a year I bet. Foreign students do subsidize domestic students. 4 years of 31K is 124K just in tuition. Just because departments grow to get more revenue from foreign students does not mean that if revenue did not grow the departments would still grow. As in if ubc didnt take in foreign students the univesity would be 28% smaller, not suddenly filled by locals. I did go to UBC for grad school and got the hell out of vancouver 2 years ago because I could not wait more for the bubble to burst. I bought a house in kirkland (seattle) for 500K on an income(single) of 250K . In vancouver our household income was close to 300K but would have had to… Read more »
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

“Their parents taxes built the infrastructure.”
Not to mention the blood sweat and tears of the people who worked/work there, who cannot afford to buy anywhere within an hour’s drive.

Tcg
Guest
Tcg

ECUAD is just as bad, and the community colleges too. The foreign enrolment at Langara has exploded in the last few years. Why is the media not on this story?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Because the developers want to confuse the public by not exposing the real reason for the rent/price increases.

The reason for the pause in prices after the 15% tax was the foreign student buying frenzy stopped.

Trudeau and MacCallum will restart it by increasing the rate of PR formation for foreign students.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I agree that there is a big story here.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

i would never rent to a white person. they are too high maintenance. i rent newer higher end units to foreign studentsand older ones to working immigrants.

Slava
Guest
Slava

My dad is has more units then your dad. So there!
That’s how you are portraying yourself as sharing your fantasies anonymously on cyberspace.:)

nufio
Guest
nufio

“who paid for the ubc infrastructure?”
The 28% of students paying 31 grand a year is paying for a lot.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Simple formula to predict hosuing and rent prices.

Increase immigration numbers = higher

Decrease immigration numbers = lower.

Direct your energies to policy that matters.

chilled
Member
chilled

The Federal Liberals started it, the Conservatives said ‘we can play that game too’ while Canadians said, ‘did you watch the game last night?’ Canada is a wonderful country, except for this one pesky thing screwing it up
>
>
>
>
CANADIANS!!!

patriotz
Member

“The Federal Liberals started it”

Sir John A. wasn’t a Liberal, actually. And he was an immigrant himself.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I thought you were building a saw dust house in Surrey? Better gets some tarps up before it turns to mush.

paulb
Member

New
269

Sold
110

TI:9315

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“The company offered an official apology for the ad but one executive of the company told The Global Times that people were “too sensitive.”

Oh really?

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Anyone whose ever been to China or HongKong knows that Chinese consider the Indians and Pakistanis inferior.
Even lower than the Phillopino nannies.
Visit Kowloon and you will see for yourself.

space889
Member
space889

I thought HK is all nice and westernized and ideal models?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Buying low is smart investing. In housing, you’re buying high”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/buying-low-is-smart-investing-in-housing-youre-buying-high/article31749328/

“Every dollar that house prices rise undermines the argument that buying a home today is a great investment.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Toronto is the new Vancouver, but this housing market will also cool”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/toronto-is-the-new-vancouver-but-this-market-will-also-cool/article31749252/

“The Toronto market will eventually cool. The question mark is whether the trigger will be higher interest rates or policy action.”

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

… or just people noticing that the emperor has no clothes.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s Housing Bubble Is About To Explode”, Press for Truth video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b1Ussefb84

“In this video Dan Dicks of Press For Truth explains that for Canadians, it all comes back to the Bank of Canada. By manually lowering interest rates through open market operations, they’ve left the private Chartered banks more leveraged and less capitalized than the American banks were in the run up to the 2008/09 recession. “

Rollercoast Down
Guest
Rollercoast Down

I expect a 30% dip… however likely hit 40% before DCB to 30% and flatline for a few years

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I’ve never understood predictions of flat prices. Look at the chart at the top of this post. It covers 40 years. There are no flat parts other than a bit in the 80s that was 40% below the trend line and well supported by rents. What makes you feel that slightly higher than 2015 prices is a natural price point that will neither rise nor fall?

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Yup.

Dan
Guest

Ban foreign investment in housing period…someone get Eby’s assume on this quick!
Dan

Dan
Guest

That’s not what I typed,(assumed..figure it out)
Dan

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Here is your elephant in the room…

Tens of thousands of millionaire foreign students. Also, SAIT in Calgary raised their tuition to $43000/year for diploma program (medical radiographer. Easiest way for wealthy to get PR.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-foreign-students-make-a-big-impact-on-vancouver

Ktown
Guest
Ktown
Dave
Member

That’s a very interesting graph and it’s interesting how the 2016 data has tracked that way. But I do see similarities in all years. There is a strengthening market heading into Day 100 to 150, then a softening to about now and then a Fall bounce. That fits with the model that the Spring and Fall markets and relatively stronger than Summer and Winter.

Of course, 2016 had a very strong Spring market and that level wasn’t sustainable so we’re back down to normal levels. I don’t think the steep drop implies it will continue though. Look at the bounce in 2015 for example.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

What I found most interesting about the chart was the crazy and sudden spike around October last year. All the other lines are fairly smooth but there is a very large discontinuity out of nowhere that made me think “what happened in September/October”?

Then I looked at the data from China and it all made sense: an unprecedented surge in capital outflows, starting in the fall last year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/07/03/gs%20fx%205.jpg

Note as well the chart tapers off as Spring progresses, just like Van RE did.

But I’m sure that those who deny the massive role of Chinese money in Van RE will claim this is just a coincidence.

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