Collapse Scenario in Chart Form

Perhaps someone can inform us as to where this graph originated- both Newcomer and YVR posted this in yesterdays comments.

This is an inflation adjusted chart showing average peak detached house prices and where prices would have to go to match a couple of different historical price collapses in Vancouver:

yvr-housing-2016

The original image is posted here on cloudup.

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Royce McCutcheon
Royce McCutcheon
4 years ago

Kind of worth a chuckle and doubt this will get seen, but what possible reason would there be for banning me? Trying to click on most recent Friday Free For All and all I get is “you are banned”. Cannot imagine what specific conduct I’ve engaged in that would warrant this.

2.9millCrackHouse
2.9millCrackHouse
4 years ago

Hahaha I am banned as well. I think the site has been hacked.

trackback

[…] –Refinance before it’s too late –More bubble warnings –The purple hill of 2016 –Toronto is the new Vancouver –Buying high or low? –A collapse in the blogger bubble –Affordability vs supply – […]

southseacompany
southseacompany
4 years ago

“Vancouver presales figures breaking records despite softening in real estate market”, Vancouver Sun

http://vancouversun.com/business/mortgages/vancouver-presales-figures-breaking-records-despite-softening-in-real-estate-market

“Presales of brand new condos in Vancouver have never been stronger, even as recent figures show a slump in real estate sales in the wake of B.C.’s new 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers.”

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
4 years ago
Bbbbb
Bbbbb
4 years ago

Check this house out. one of the best I’ve ever seen. Incredible and marketed in China only.

V shaped recovery in Richmond
V shaped recovery in Richmond
4 years ago

Looks like the correction was short lived. Average prices up 8% this month in Richmond. So much for the correction.

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/trends

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
4 years ago

Wow. What a rebound. Looks like where we go from here is anybody guess now.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
4 years ago

Classic dead cat bounce.

Newcomer
Newcomer
4 years ago

Burnaby has flattened and the Vancouver drop is less severe, but that Richmond bounce is pretty pronounced. Interestingly, condos are down, it’s SFD and townhouses that are up.

Tim
Tim
4 years ago

Fail. Those charts did not include that last datapoint up top.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
4 years ago
Reply to  Tim

Of course not, they were made 6 years ago.

Whistler or Bust?
Whistler or Bust?
4 years ago

Wow it seems like so long ago I wrote this. I for one never thought the air would come out of this gas bag so quick with one 15% easily avoidable tax. It shows just how fragile this market really was. I also have to hand it to the NDP to force the Libs to make a move they absolutely did not want to do but had to for their survival. I think we are in for a slow grind down. I don’t believe for one second that prices have dropped even 10% yet. That said, it will be a slow and demoralizing grind down for the bulls with each month lower than rest. This will be far more painful than a massive and immediate drop unfortunately. Lower prices will equal lower prices. People banter about how 30% will just… Read more »

space889
space889
4 years ago

so if you are right and enjoy this slow water drip torture of the bulls then after maybe 1 decade, the prices will sank back down to say 2008/2009 which is still expensive to the bears? Unless you believe your income will double or triple in that time? How exactly is this a victory?

Tim
Tim
4 years ago
Reply to  space889

Space, you seem obsessed with the notion that bears are full of envy, that we just want to be proud, upright property owners like yourself. “They’re just jealous”, sneers the teenage queen.

Not so. There are plenty of reasons to want to see this part end.

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
4 years ago
Reply to  Tim

Seems like bears are full of envy at Oracle building and owning a house.

Tim
Tim
4 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbb

No oracle’s just getting annoying.

vangrl
vangrl
4 years ago
Reply to  Tim

Space doesn’t own, that’s the weird part, he sits on the sidelines as a Bull for last 5 years.

YVR
YVR
4 years ago
Reply to  vangrl

No balls.

Chinabuyeverything
Chinabuyeverything
4 years ago

In any asset class. I have never in my life seen a soft landing correction.

Ktown
Ktown
4 years ago

I have some doubt towards PaulBs numbers as they do not match Rob Chipmans for the rebgv.

Here is a a mix of vancouver area and fraser valley mixed. Check out robchipman.net

Sep 7
New Listings 373
Price Changes 100
Sold Listings 148

Ktown
Ktown
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

Sep 8
New Listings 356
Price Changes 87
Sold Listings 124

Ktown
Ktown
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

Sep 6
New Listings 584
Price Changes 112
Sold Listings 159

Ktown
Ktown
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

The number of price changes is significant and PaulB no longer includes these in his posts. Also they do not match what other realtors post for rebgv numbers. Average DOM is around 28 right now as well.

Whistler or Bust?
Whistler or Bust?
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

But how many of these price changes are INCREASES?

🙂

Ktown
Ktown
4 years ago

Stupid question. Obviously very few. Houses are selling 2-3% below current lists on average. No more bidding wars. Only houses that are priced very aggressive are getting offers.

vangrl
vangrl
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

I ran Rob’s stats & Paul’s stats against REBGV stats last year for a few months and Paul’s stats were waaaaaaay more accurate.
Granted that was around the time that the board changed the way they reported and Rob admitted some difficulty with the switch, but I’m more prone to trusting Paul’s numbers.
Tonnes of SFH price reductions right now. Some obvious but many have just re-listed at a lower price making it less obvious.

Whistler or Bust?
Whistler or Bust?
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

I was joking dumbass. Did you miss the smiley face?

Newcomer
Newcomer
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

Paul’s reporting area is different. Smaller than Rob’s. What matters is the relative trend, not the absolute values.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 years ago

Are we almost at 7K inventory?

Oracle
Oracle
4 years ago

Hold on a sec, i’m going to tarp my particle board house before the rain washes away what little equity I have left.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
4 years ago

We’re closer to 7K than anything that might precipitate meaningful price reductions. But you know that already, and I don’t need to remind you that you’ve been wrong for, like, a decade.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 years ago

Again, you don’t know how to answer a simple question.

You’re completely useless.

space889
space889
4 years ago

If SIDA is completely useless and you are ever more useless and worthless of a human being than him…that’s just sad…

Ktown
Ktown
4 years ago

Dumb. There are nearly as many proce reductions per day as there are sales. Open your eyes. Sales to rolling inventory have dropped well below 2015 levels.

YVR
YVR
4 years ago

Prices are already down 20%. That is meaningful. Do the math on where we will be in 2 years at this rate of decline.

Oracle
Oracle
4 years ago

Too many personal attacks on this blog.

For the majority of people here who deny immigration has anything to do with house prices, Good luck to you and may you wait in peace for that mythical 30% detached home price crash that will bring prices to August 2015 levels.

Nah wait. It will crash to levels which make sense based on your income. Your take home is $4000/month after taxes so 30% of your salary would be $1334. Good enough for houses to be at $300,000.

Yup , houses will crash to $300,000 because that’s what YoUr income says.

Unbelievable.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Are you leaving again?

Shame, I was hoping you’d stay to celebrate 7K inventory with us.

Boombust
Boombust
4 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Oracle, did you ever IMAGINE this bubble would get so out of control? Well, guess what? It can go the other way, too.

Royce McCutcheon
Royce McCutcheon
4 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

“For the majority of people here who deny immigration has anything to do with house prices”

You’re again attacking a position pretty much no one here holds. Even those who think local participation is the primary driver have typically acknowledged that there is a big role for foreign money too.

As to personal attacks, I agree. Too much lame bickering too. Might be worth looking at your post volume to see if you’re contributing to it.

In a week where I’ve seen some truly bad stuff go down, all I can say is: here’s hoping that each of us has some good and positive things in our lives away from this stupid topic. My best to all of you.

paulb
paulb
4 years ago

New
207
Sold
101
TI:9370

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Fear monger
Fear monger
4 years ago
Reply to  paulb

Paul,
You are our hero.
Keep the listings coming.

kim
kim
4 years ago

For what it’s worth, parents’ neighbour’s detached home, east side, reduced price now to 2.398m, after sitting on market for two months trying to sell at 2.798m, then 2.498m. Relatively new 6 year old on big lot.

Oracle
Oracle
4 years ago

Just got a heads up by FED liberal insiders .

Expect huge immigration announcement on the 2nd Friday in October. Sources say expect the biggest increase in immigration numbers ever.

Don’t shoot the messenger. Sources say target 400,000.

Plus tripling of students that is already happening. New 50 storey tower to be built for foreign students
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/former-surrey-stardust-roller-rink-site-proposed-for-50-storey-education-centre

Students growing at 24% year over year means 30-40,000 MORE new students here in metro each year. Plus 30-40,000 ten year visa holders. Plus 30-40,000 new immigrants, plus ? Foreign workers

Result 90-120,000+ new residents here by next year. Watch rents soar.

Boombust
Boombust
4 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

So the, we heard it here first, Just like the 7K inventory level.

Confucius
Confucius
4 years ago
Reply to  Boombust

I think he’s really worried about how much his house will be worth when it’s completed. Kind of sad that he has to resort to constant immigration scare postings.

space889
space889
4 years ago
Reply to  Confucius

On this blog? Who’s he trying to scare? The bears who has been priced out for 8 years running and is in even worse position to buy?

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
4 years ago
Reply to  Confucius

I think he’s tryn’ to save you from your own stupidity.

Combat roach
Combat roach
4 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Perhaps entire Vancouver will become one big university and all, but all available housing resources will be converted to dormitories and all commercial RE into classrooms. University staff and other service’s staff will be driven to work by busses on a daily basis from distant BC, Alberta and Washington (US) villages. The rest of population will become economic refuges and look for asylum in Africa and Asia, right?

Oracle
Oracle
4 years ago
Reply to  Combat roach

Make no mistake. Immigration is our only industry right now.

HAMster
HAMster
4 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

I thought real estate was our only industry.

YVR
YVR
4 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Do you think any of those students will want to buy your particle board house in Slurrey?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
4 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Are they good students? If they are bad students they’ll drag down the others. The quality of education depends in part on the preparedness and open-ended curiosity of those involved in the process.

space889
space889
4 years ago

Does it matter anymore when the most important thing public education teaches is there are 7 genders and if you dare to suggest anything otherwise, you are a bigot and xxx-phobic?

Who cares about actual RRR anymore?

And yes, most of the ones from China who aren’t here on a scholarship are only here cuz they can’t cut it in China. So you are basically getting the dredge and leftovers who made at least 1 good decision in their life – picked either rich parents or at least ones who are willing to pay for their kids “education” through whatever sacrifice required.

franko
franko
4 years ago

“Mao Zedong was responsible for the death of 60 million people”

More than Hitler and Stalin combined, according to a documentary I watched on the Knowledge Network last night. The host of the program seemed to be baffled that the vast majority of people in the PRoC still revere and worship the prick.

Diadora
Diadora
4 years ago
Reply to  franko

Many were not born at the time of the massacres, famine. All were brain washed since they were small child that Mao was their father and man of great things. No mention of anything bad exist is China which is strictly controlled by an authoritarian communist (asshole) government. The present government is basically the same government that Mao founded and the west went to war against.

space889
space889
4 years ago
Reply to  Diadora

Or maybe they actually know something about the actual history from their parents who lived through it, rather than colour version filtered by a particular ideology? I personally don’t know anyone who worship Mao, outside of maybe pretending for some purpose. Most people I know do believe 2 things: 1 – The guy was good at conquest and without him, there wouldn’t be the modern Communist China. 2 – It would be much better if he died 10 years or 15 years earlier, or just after Korean Wars. As for the 60 million number, that’s including death from 3 year famine. I don’t think he has the power to summon natural disasters so is it really fair to blame it all on him? And if that’s the reasoning, how about all the people Japan killed during their occupation of Asia,… Read more »

Ray
Ray
4 years ago

Vancouver Mortgage Brokers are recommending that homeowners refinance their mortgages “before it’s too late”. They suggest an immediate refinancing to the maximum possible debt (80% loan-to-value) because Vancouver Real Estate has just “collapsed -$294,000 in one month”. Appraisals are coming in soft, banks and insurers are tightening lending, and therefore “skittish homeowners whom have had the bejesus scared out of them” should impulsively act in due haste. Probably time to really ramp up on that Line of Credit while you’re at it?

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2016/09/clock-ticking-on-80-ltv-vancouver-refis.html

LS in Arbutus
LS in Arbutus
4 years ago
Reply to  Ray

What? But how will I continue my HELOC lifestyle if the credit tap is shut off?

Ktown
Ktown
4 years ago
Reply to  Ray

Great advice. Borrow heavily against equity you are soon to have less of. Sounds a lot like fraud to me.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

McLister is first and formost a shifty weasel.

He’s a fraudster second.

Etremely Rich Chinese houses owner.
Etremely Rich Chinese houses owner.
4 years ago
Reply to  Ray

No, problem wealthy Chinese will come to the rescue. Chinese immense purchasing power will shock and awe Vancouverites in 2017. Vancouver Real Estate will surge skyward again as usual, remember 2009?

diadora
diadora
4 years ago

In Vancouver, there was a celebration of the biggest mass murder in the history of the world Mao Zedong. He was responsible for the deaths of 60 million, double that of Adolf Hitler.
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2017766/vancouver-fans-mao-zedong-gather-sing-his-praises?utm_source=&utm_medium=&utm_campaign=SCMPSocialNewsfeed
It makes me sad to see that we had let so many of Mao’s henchman into the country.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 years ago
Reply to  diadora

Where’s the outrage?

Any gathering of neo-nazis celebrating Hitler would be roundly condemned by the public, media and politicians of all stripes and they’d be run out of town, but these Mao-loving clowns seem to get pass.

The only ones fighting back are Chinese-Canadians who care about Canadian values.

Proud Chinese Canadian
Proud Chinese Canadian
4 years ago

Our family were one of those, grand parents were land owner so they were tortured by Mao and had their land taken away. They were not rich so they escaped execution. We still love China but despised the Communist government and we immigrate to Canada. We hated all the Communist officials now living in Canada with corrupt money that once belongs my family. Justine, you are a trader.

space889
space889
4 years ago

Uhmm…no… the corrupt money belongs to the poor victims and taxpayers of China, not your family. Geez…you are a fing entitled little ahole thinking that your family are owed billions in Chinese because of something that happend 60 years ago? Using bear terminalogy, stop being so butthurt for something that happened over 60 years ago.

And what do you think a peasant revolution involves? Poor people letting rich people hoarding more wealth while everyone sing kumbanya around a camp fire?

space889
space889
4 years ago

Well, that’s the problem with freedom isn’t it. People are free to have opinions and worship idols that are disagreeable with yours.

Mao must have some magical power to personally kill so many people and summon natural disasters. I didn’t know multi-year drought can be summon at will.

Also, given that you people never lived in China, ever, seems you are much more worked up over this guy than people in China, who actually lived through all those years like my parents. Most people in China are past it now. But you people seem so work up over this.

Combat roach
Combat roach
4 years ago
Reply to  diadora

All those celebrating Mao in Vancouver should be loaded on old cargo boats (tankers) all together with their extended families and let to float on the see. Their only hope would be the Mao’s motherland to give them a hand and let those boats to dock on their shores. No other country would let that garbage on its soil.

Joe
Joe
4 years ago
Reply to  Combat roach

Letting in so many corrupt chinese officials is comparable to Argentina letting in thousands of murderous Nazis in the fifties with names like Josef Mengele.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 years ago
Reply to  Joe

Excellent comparison.

space889
space889
4 years ago

Indeed…Canada is a corrupt rotten whore who will let anyone in with $$$$, and then refuse to hand them back when their original country come knocking due to some “human rights” concerns and objection to capital punishment.

I guess that explains the general low level of culture and brain among a lot of bears here? With you being a prime example of this $$$ whore culture and upbringing?

Fear monger
Fear monger
4 years ago

Paul B. will be the most popular guy on this blog this fall.

Billybonger
Billybonger
4 years ago

My only question at the moment is does our Oracle still produce flat prices this month and inventory cratering down to 7,000 or so?

southseacompany
southseacompany
4 years ago

“Morneau Still Considering Measures for ‘Charged’ Canada Housing”, Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-08/morneau-still-considering-measures-for-charged-canada-housing

“Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau said additional measures may be needed to manage the risks associated with the “highly charged” Vancouver and Toronto housing markets, even after British Columbia imposed a foreign buyer tax.”

Yellow Beaver
Yellow Beaver
4 years ago

Let me translate: – Vancouver is fucked, but they’re on their own. Now that Toronto has a problem – we really need to do something.

patriotz
4 years ago

Air China Will Fly You to London, and Warn You About Dark-Skinned People There

Safety: London is generally a safe place to travel, however precautions are needed when entering areas mainly populated by Indians, Pakistanis and black people. We advise tourists not to go out alone at night, and females always to be accompanied by another person when travelling.

Yes I know, but this was too good to pass up.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
4 years ago
Reply to  patriotz

Third time this has been posted to the thread now. Well done.

YVR
YVR
4 years ago
Reply to  patriotz

Are you calling out Air China for being racist on arguably the most racist blog on the web with a racist post of your own? Too funny.

patriotz
4 years ago
Reply to  YVR

“arguably the most racist blog on the web”

Now that’s a whopper worthy of Donald Trump, and the Orange One’s fanboys (aka Alt-Right) have the worst content on this blog beat by a mile. It’s not even the worst in Canada by a very long shot.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
4 years ago
Reply to  patriotz

Perhaps admin could make that the site’s slogan? “Not the most racist blog in Canada”.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 years ago
Reply to  YVR

How exactly was his post racist?

YVR
YVR
4 years ago

Racism is about intent. It has nothing to to with Vancouver RE and the intent of the link is to belittle or put down a specific race. That is racism.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
4 years ago
Reply to  YVR

Gee, I must have interpreted wrong.

To me it looks like the intent was to point out the hypocrisy of people who are constantly whining about racism who are actually horrible racists themselves.

Same people who have flooded our country and laundered hundreds of billions in our real estate market.

But I guess I’m wrong, perhaps I need to go to a re-education camp.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
4 years ago
Reply to  YVR

“most racist blog on the web” Huh? A very poor attempt at spin.

Food for thought.
Food for thought.
4 years ago

https://www.asiapacific.ca/media/news-releases/28323

300,000-600,000 Hong Kong residents are Canadian citizens. And China and Hong Kong elections are about to get ugly.

That would send prices to highest in the world by far. Detached homes easily would fetch $7-8 million Canadian pesos.

HAMster
HAMster
4 years ago

Your link states 295,930 residents are Canadian so where do you get 600,000 from? Fool.

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
4 years ago
Reply to  HAMster

HAMster= troll

Their kids born in Hong Kong that never set foot in Canada. 2 generations of kids are automatic citizens.

HAMster
HAMster
4 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Canadians

“with approximately 300,000 Canadian citizens of all ethnic backgrounds living in the city.”

Their kids? LOL.
Try harder to not be an idiot.

Bbbbb
Bbbbb
4 years ago
Reply to  HAMster

Can’t handle the truth can you HAM.

People have a right to know. Those are the values we have in this country. Otherwise go back to China. Your not welcome.

Canadian gov has no way of knowing how many kids abroad born to canadian citizens.

HAMster
HAMster
4 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbb

They all need Canadian passports so yes we do know the numbers. Try not to embarrass yourself next time. PS: I was born here and I’m not Chinese.

space889
space889
4 years ago
Reply to  HAMster

Canada recognize dual citizenships and as long as those kids mainly stay in Asia, they don’t need Canadian passports. The HK resident card & China passport works fine. But if there is some bad events and they need to get the hell out of dodge quickly, you bet they will get their Cdn passports ASAP.

Or when they can’t make it into the competitive university in Asia and decides for an easy party route in univ here and pay the local rate. Or just when they want to work in Canada or live and grab all the social benefits they can.

Dave
4 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

That’s a very interesting graph and it’s interesting how the 2016 data has tracked that way. But I do see similarities in all years. There is a strengthening market heading into Day 100 to 150, then a softening to about now and then a Fall bounce. That fits with the model that the Spring and Fall markets and relatively stronger than Summer and Winter.

Of course, 2016 had a very strong Spring market and that level wasn’t sustainable so we’re back down to normal levels. I don’t think the steep drop implies it will continue though. Look at the bounce in 2015 for example.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Its_the_ALR_stupid
4 years ago
Reply to  Dave

What I found most interesting about the chart was the crazy and sudden spike around October last year. All the other lines are fairly smooth but there is a very large discontinuity out of nowhere that made me think “what happened in September/October”?

Then I looked at the data from China and it all made sense: an unprecedented surge in capital outflows, starting in the fall last year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/07/03/gs%20fx%205.jpg

Note as well the chart tapers off as Spring progresses, just like Van RE did.

But I’m sure that those who deny the massive role of Chinese money in Van RE will claim this is just a coincidence.

Oracle
Oracle
4 years ago

Here is your elephant in the room…

Tens of thousands of millionaire foreign students. Also, SAIT in Calgary raised their tuition to $43000/year for diploma program (medical radiographer. Easiest way for wealthy to get PR.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-foreign-students-make-a-big-impact-on-vancouver