Friday Free-for-all! Sept. 2nd 2016

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday free-for-all here on VCI.

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Some recent stats
Rentals, the other disaster
For rent, van with no toilet
Scotiabank: Buyer tax the right move
Mansion prices drop
Prices to dip 10%
Thousands of job losses
What 3 mill gets you in Scottsdale
Vancouver & Toronto go in different directions

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
MarKoz
Member

Sales down 26% year over year in August. Down only 3.5% from the 10 year average.
http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports?month=August&year=2016

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Vancouver home sales fall 26% after new foreign buyers’ tax, but prices keep climbing
http://www.bnn.ca/vancouver-home-sales-fall-26-after-new-foreign-buyers-tax-but-prices-keep-climbing-1.559820

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

More Victoria real estate records fall in August
http://www.cheknews.ca/victoria-real-estate-records-fall-august-214265/

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“26% slump in Vancouver real estate sales called a return to ‘historically normal’ levels”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/26-slump-in-vancouver-real-estate-sales-called-a-return-to-historically-normal-levels-1.3745825

“Despite dropping sales, prices are still creeping up, according to the August statistics”

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Now we just need some historically normal prices and we’ll be all set.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Fear and loathing in the Vancouver property market: Don Pittis”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/vancouver-canada-home-prices-bubble-1.3744304

“In the property market, where the mood of individual buyers matters so much, there is no question that fear — and loathing — have an effect. By tradition the two great forces in speculative markets are greed, which makes people buy, and fear, which makes them sell.”

“Leverage — buying on borrowed money — which propelled markets to new heights, goes into reverse. Leverage is why you can make so much money in real estate when you have a mortgage. But when property prices are falling, leverage becomes a serious disadvantage, and speculators may be wise to try to get out before prices fall too much more.”

david
Guest
david

The politicians are horrified. Though this preliminary result is objectively good for Vancouver, it has worked far too efficiently and exposed the scale of the problem as far bigger than what anyone in authority honestly thought.

I suspect a quiet, backdoor relaxing of the policy…and never to speak of any of this ever again.

Openhousemassacare
Guest
Openhousemassacare

Now the truth comes out Chinese money was influencing RE market upto 40% other 40% is driven by people who FOMO and others 20% trying to make a quick buck.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
I stand by my earlier personal refusal to get excited about this yet. But, regardless, I’ve been thinking a bit about these sorts of % values you’re talking about in the context of this market again. Once again taking pains to say that I think foreign money is absolutely a significant factor here, I think it’s possible that the tax on foreign buyers ALSO has the ability to spook regular ol’ Canadian market participants who believed the market was driven by foreign buyers, changing their view of the market as well. Ultimately, I don’t care about the drivers. I don’t care much about being proven right about the perils of this market (not at all a guarantee at this point). I just want this done and I want people from this region to finally be over this topic, moving on… Read more »
Ulsterman
Member
As I’m sure you know I’m also of the “don’t get too excited by this” philosophy. We saw a false correction in 2008/9 that proved to be nothing but an opportunity for those who’d missed out on the 2000-2007 price explosion to get on board. People like me, expecting to see prices crash missed out again, sitting on the sidelines and explaining to work colleagues why the fundamentals ….bla, bla, bla. You know the story. I think the big jump in prices annually is hopefully behind us, but i’m skeptical that we’ll see significant and meaningful price declines without interest rate rises. Even if prices correct 20%, i think the housing mindset is so strong amongst people here that with low rates, people waiting to buy will be persuaded by their owner friends and family that NOW is a once-in-a-lifetime… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch

It’s not just about mindset. It’s about finding a place to live in Vancouver. Period. What does the rental market tell us? It’s gone up almost as much as house prices. What does T2’s trip to China tell us about immigration?

The days of being a bear in 2003 are long gone. Looking at fundamentals like income seems so quaint now. There are other factors that have now been proven by this tax and it’s just a tax–a 15% premium to buy in Vancouver vs say Toronto or Victoria. Every day that they don’t have a tax is a day their prices grow more than Van prices until they catch up.

Vancouver is Asia’s Preciousssss.

Ulsterman
Member

I agree to an extent. The asian phenomenon is troubling and i think there is a love affair between China and Vancouver property that’s hard to break. There aren’t many cities where a Chinese speaking person can relocate to and find a massive Chinese population that allows them to live an almost Chinese life, without the tedium of having to learn English or interact with non-Chinese. I get it why that’s attractive.

I disagree on rents. They’ve gone up significantly in the past 2-3 years but not close to the tripling or quadrupling of prices.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

QIIP: “If you have B.C. property, if you have a child attending a B.C. school, there is a question mark on your intent to settle in the province of Quebec,” Vancouver-based immigration lawyer Richard Kurland said. “Immigrant investor cases are now being refused because you have B.C. property or you have a child in a B.C. university.”
http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/quebec-to-clamp-down-on-deceptive-wealthy-immigrants-213200.aspx
Tens of thousands of these scumbags has to be shipped back to China NOW!

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Can someone explain why Quebec still has this program at all? The data show that users (abusers) of this program have contributed less income tax than the most impoverished of refugees. So Quebec gets an 800k loan which they have to give back in 5 years interest-free. I guess that means they save on interest payments. Big deal – at today’s interest rates that’s an insignificant amount. Why bother at all? I really feel like there’s something we’ve not been told.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Its a cash grab for Quebec. I will be very surprise if they will actually reject these lying assholes. If Quebec is smart, they should increase the amount to $10 millions.

patriotz
Member

Quebec will not unilaterally give up power over anything. Whether the program is really useful isn’t the point. They will want to be offered something in return for giving it up.

david
Guest
david

Correction: they expect to be offered something, give nothing up, and get more power.

You must have been studying the ‘Politics for Any Dummy but Quebec’ guide.

patriotz
Member

Do keep in mind the 1982 Constitution was adopted by the Feds and the other 9 provinces without Quebec’s consent, but it applies to them regardless and thus resulted in Quebec facing new limits on their powers without their consent.

Now imagine if instead BC had been the odd man out and you may understand the attitude.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

They’re free to leave.

Last referendum they chickened out, maybe the next one will get them out once and for all.

david
Guest
david

Chickened out?! You’re as thick as lead.

Quebec has had its way on every issue…including the wink wink immigration program… for the 20 years since. Want an oil pipeline to NB? Gimme gimme.

Give your head a shake and figure it out, Einstein. They’re political geniuses, dealing with completely self-preserving idiots in Ottawa at every Canadian’s expense.

david
Guest
david

I lived in Quebec. I voted in the 1995 referendum. I know a little bit about Quebec.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Yup. And approaching this poorly has the potential to stir up the whole sovereignty debate, like it or not. Something absolutely needs to be done, but I would definitely agree that a tactful, quiet, behind-the-scenes approach is most likely to yield results.

franko
Member
franko

They need to be threatened with something in return.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Like being kicked out of Canada or having their Strategic Syrup Reserve attacked.

franko
Member
franko

Sell’em to China!

david
Guest
david

Maple Syrup is a bit more honourable a legacy than bog weed.
Oh. And a big Stanley Cup riot…for losing !?
Bwa ha ha ha ha

ostritch
Member
ostritch

A rare agreement with Patriotz on this point.

david
Guest
david

You’re suggesting that government is not being transparent with its citizens That other, non-altruistic motivations are at work ?!?
What?!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Or go to McGill. Or Concordia.

Oncebittwiceshy
Guest
Oncebittwiceshy
News Release FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE For more information please contact: Craig Munn, Assistant Manager, Communications Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver Phone: (604) 730-3146 Fax: (604) 730-3102 E-mail: cmunn@rebgv.org also available at Ü http://www.realtylink.org Buyer activity brings greater stability to the housing market VANCOUVER, B.C. May 4, 2009 With more buyers and fewer homes for sale in recent months, the Greater Vancouver housing market has entered a more moderate and balanced state. For the sixth consecutive month, new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined in Greater Vancouver, down 33.7 per cent to 4,649 in April 2009 compared to April 2008, when 7,010 new units were listed. The total number of property listings on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), while slightly down compared to last month, remains unchanged compared to the same period in 2008. The Real Estate Board… Read more »
franko
Member
franko

McCallum has not only unloaded the QIIP problem squarely on the shoulders of BC, but compared to the flood of new immigrants he wants to bring in from China will make the QIIP look like a tiny irritating drip. The guy is totally out of control and needs to stopped!

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Recall McCallum….anyone?

david
Guest
david

Some ex-banker who really likes the booze…no?

chilled
Member
chilled

I call him Santa McCallum because every time he opens his mouth he is giving something away.

david
Guest
david

And Santa enjoys it when you leave out a glass of rum for him.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver real estate ‘kicked in the face’ by new foreign buyer tax”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/vancouver-real-estate-kicked-in-the-face-by-new-foreign-buyer-tax-1.559993

“Vancouver’s home sales plunged last month, and while one prominent Bay Street economist warns against giving too much credit to the new tax on foreign buyers, another industry expert deemed the levy a “kick in the face.””

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

McLister the whiny mortgage broker crying about a kick in the face.

Hopefully he witnesses follow up kicks to the ass, nuts, and throat.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver home sales fall in August as demand cools”, CTV video

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/vancouver-home-sales-fall-in-august-as-demand-cools-1.3055490

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
I tip my hat to Krusty and co…she’s definitely got some very clever people working for her – beat the NDP and other critics to the punch by rolling out foreign tax – set rollout date that coincides with seasonal sales downturn – tipped off rennie and co (among others i am sure) weeks or months in advance which allowed them to pull forward record numbers of sales (concord brentwood presalers take note) and take a vacation for a few months – maintains complete control of msm spin which suggests overwhelmingly that sales slowdown directly attributed to 15% tax and that plan to make housing more affordable a huge success – will take credit for “doing the right thing” (or at least appearing to) heading into election – by spring/summer time, when sales typically ramp up and the election is… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

FINAL POST FOR NOW glta…!

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

glta? Gay and Lesbian Tennis Alliance?

chilled
Member
chilled

Where the clubs manifesto is ‘How to Lick your Opponent’??

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

They don’t seem so clever to me. I know too many good capable people who are leaving.

Ulsterman
Member

What is this “NDP” you speak of? Initially i thought it may be an opposition political party, but surely this close to an election i would have heard from their leadership team and be considering their innovative ideas for BC’s future?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Interesting. You might be right.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver Average Detached Home Prices See Worst Slide In 39 Years”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/09/02/vancouver-detached-home-price-crash-housing_n_11837936.html

“The average price of a detached Greater Vancouver home fell by 16.7 per cent last month, representing the biggest single-month drop it has seen in 39 years, according to a graph provided by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver”

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

I really with the media would stop obsessing about average prices as if they mean anything. For reasons that have been discussed a million times on this blog and elsewhere, average prices are just about useless as indicators of current market trends.

Note that benchmark prices were actually UP month over month in August. This is a much more indicative statistic.

Oncebittwiceshy
Guest
Oncebittwiceshy

Vancouver real estate prices break records
BRENT JANG
VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Mar. 04, 2014 1:24PM EST
Last updated Wednesday, Mar. 05, 2014 11:28AM EST

The million-dollar club isn’t so exclusive in Greater Vancouver, where the average price for single-family detached houses sold has soared to a record high of more than $1.36-million.

Prices surged as total residential sales climbed to 2,530 last month for detached homes, condos and townhouses, up 40.8 per cent from volume of 1,797 properties changing hands in February, 2013, according to data released Tuesday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

Interestingly enough, nobody but the bears complained about averages when the market was surging forward. It cuts both ways.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Median prices also dropped hard, yet the mysterious benchmark prices that the board concocted didn’t.

Only a 0.1% drop in detached according to the benchmark.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

While it’s certainly a better statistic, even median prices have some of the same drawbacks as averages. In particular there seems to be strong evidence that the new tax disproportionately affected the top end of the market. So both medians and averages could seem to indicate a price drop, when in actuality it may just be that people stopped buying at the high end.

Nonetheless I am also suspicious of the “mystery” benchmark, but sadly we don’t have much else. Teranet is pretty good, but they don’t split out condos from detached, which is unfortunate since they have become completely decoupled from each other in Vancouver.

donald t
Guest
donald t

What does that tell if no one buys at the high end? It is telling the market price are too high even for flippers/money laundriers. Medians and averages are 2 indicators you can’t easily temper, that is better lies, stupid.

MarKoz
Member

Agreed. Total sales down 26% yoy. Detached down 40%.

MarKoz
Member

Oops, that should be down 44% yoy.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Average prices seem to be able to track housing price trends perfectly in this graph over the last 40 years. All of a sudden they mean nothing when it goes off a cliff?

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/4657294/thumbs/o-HOUSING-CRASH-570.jpg

ostritch
Member
ostritch

It’s generating great headlines but the townhouse next to me just sold over ask in record time.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

U.S. economy may need much higher interest rates: Fed’s Lacker
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-lacker-idUSKCN11828K
Can’t be good news for those that are holding million dollars mortgages with 5% down.

Brian Ripley
Guest

Still lots of rentals available:
http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html#Rentals

Everyone wants income. Are they getting what they want?

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

English ousted as Wellington Court language dispute escalates
Promises of English-speaking at strata meetings overturned, GoFundMe page killed
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/wellington-court-richmond-condo-language-dispute-1.3745602
First step of Richmond gaining independence from Canada. Vancouver and Burnaby, you’re next.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

I very seldom go to Richmond now as it became a city of China. Most do (or want to) speak english and most signs are in Chinese. Chinese infants freely piss into garbage can in malls and old man spits on the streets. Ferraris and Bentlys with “N” signs everywhere either driving too fast or too slow. What a mess and McCallum wants to open the door wide open to this shit.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

There’s a spa and swimming and workout place that refuses to print their brochures or website in English and whose staff do not speak English and who show no interest in having new customers if the potential new customer speaks only English. In the U.S. South in the 1950s when people refused to serve people it was called discrimination. What does it even mean to for a country to have an “official language” or two.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Arrogant chinamen disrespecting our country time and time again.

These vermin have become universally despised.

chilled
Member
chilled

I’d want to die if I lived in a Richmond ̶c̶o̶n̶d̶o̶m̶ condo regardless.

2.9milCrackHouse
Guest
2.9milCrackHouse

This is insane!!! Chinese imperialism means flooding our nation with Chinese through our naieve government. We have been sold out. What ever happened to balanced immigration. No integration. Time for a call to arms.

YLTNboomerang
Member
chilled
Member
chilled

http://www.theprovince.com/news/crime/facing+extradition+money+laundering+charges+ordered+released+24500/12168353/story.html

Proving what I have been saying for years; Canada is the only country in the world that treats foreign nationals better than her own citizens. Money laundering in BC? Yeah, go after that white guy!!

Syrian
Guest
Syrian

MAcCallun say he allow 1200 family into metro Vancouver by December.

We have average 6 kid so we get $3000 child benefit tax free to pay rent. We love Trudeau.

We want your rental unit. You be on street with 2 kid and wife.

paulb
Member

New
130
Sold
99
TI:8983

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

Hhahaah sub 9K. Low inventory = high prices.

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Hhahaah another sub 100 Sale day = low prices

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

HaHa…. a -100 a day sold that will take some time to move 9k homes!!! Prices are next.

anon. soon
Guest
anon. soon

Quebec real estate is all over the map. Lachine especially.

david
Guest
david

? Lachine is in only one place on any decent map: Lachine.

anon. soon
Guest
anon. soon

I offer to donate lightly used furniture to Refugee but was told they will get everything for free from government. including 6s phone.

Collette
Guest
Collette

“Facts omitted by Van realtors in their media release on Friday”” according to a well known Canadian Realty Consultant, “Average price of all properties sold in August are back to January 2015. Whoever said %10 is trying to play it down. What can one expect from the real estate cartel.

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