Friday Free-for-all! September 9th 2016

It’s the end of another work week and Friday is here, that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Refinance before it’s too late
More bubble warnings
The purple hill of 2016
Toronto is the new Vancouver
Buying high or low?
A collapse in the blogger bubble
Affordability vs supply

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] Yesterday Pauls numbers show 307 new listings and 68 sold with a total inventory of 9728. […]

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Detached Prices in North Surrey and North Delta about 45% higher than 1 year ago. $550,000 detached is now $800,000. Prices would have to crash 31% before they would get to 2015 prices. Gov won’t let it happen.

This sales slowdown is having NO effect here. FOMO is mad as ever.

Six Figs Ain\'t What It Used To Be
Guest
Six Figs Ain\'t What It Used To Be

Easy come, easy go. Just embrace it, the government doesn’t exist to preserve your perception of peak/current market value and honestly won’t give a crap.

It’s not really a surprise that the affordability-constrained who can only afford crappy parts of Surrey are dumb money.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada should take regional approach to address housing problems: IMF chief”, Globe & Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canada-should-take-regional-approach-to-adress-housing-concerns-imf-chief/article31870606/

“IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said it is clear from her organization’s research that Canada’s housing market has strong regional differences.”

““I would suggest that macroprudential measures by the banks under the authority of the central bank is certainly one good avenue to explore in order to keep control over the housing markets and avoid excesses.””

“Macroprudential measures essentially refer to policies such as mortgage rules requiring minimum down payments. The term excludes changes to interest rates. “

patriotz
Member

““I would suggest that macroprudential measures by the banks under the authority of the central bank”

This is off base regarding Canada because the BoC has no control over banks’ lending policies. This is done by OSFI and CMHC.

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

The Globe report Kathy Tomlinson answers questions:
https://www.facebook.com/theglobeandmail/videos/10154492438668904/

Bubbletea
Guest
Bubbletea

A lot of people, especially the mainland chinese are playing the Canadian flip the housing game and the losers are the local people that needs it the most.

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Wow! Shocking! Great piece, I hope the provincial and federal government watch this interview and fix the holes in the systems! Thank you Kathy T.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

People living in cages. This could never happen in Halifax or Seattle. But it seems like it could happen in Vancouver. The complacency of so many Liberals living in their long ago bought houses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9g4quQggu2k#t=178

space889
Member
space889

Hmmm…cage vs capsule hotel where you can barely even sit up straight….

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Of course, it is just a step away from those monstrous micro condos.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

With prices like this … Lots of 8s!

http://www.remax.ca/bc/vancouver-real-estate/na-1969-e-1st-avenue-na-wp_id149488967-lst/

We really have to ask ourselves if the Chinese are to blame. Or rather the locals maxing out their own worth disregarding the more long ter, ramifications. ….

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Are they to blame? Probably not, but why 85% audience if not more were Chinese going to the open houses in the past several years? Perhaps they didn’t have other things to do but to frequent open houses and taste free food samples in Costco, but I doubt.

space889
Member
space889

hahahaa….this is so funny if you aren’t so pathetic….

At least I have to give you credit for able to come up withless ways to blame the Chinese…

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

59 day on the market. I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that the current rent is 2500/month and, right next to it there is a mortgage calculator telling you that your mortgage payment would be 3250/month.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

The colossal error this seller made is they’re trying attract a corrupt chinese buyer with a half duplex.

Kim
Guest
Kim

East side Killarney home now asking under 1 million

3296 School Ave

Let the bidding begin!

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Not yet.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

This week is either going to be a 10K party or a 7K party.

Hard to say which at this point, could go either way.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Ha ha! I vote for 10K!

paulb
Member

New
307
Sold
68

TI:9728

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

Over 500 comments. .similar to a day’s new listings count

JayTor
Guest
JayTor

Wow

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

Price drops are about as same pace as price increases last year

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Wow! As Trudeau Sr. said when he lost the 1982 election, “Perhaps the universe is unfolding as it should”.

patriotz
Member

The 1979 election, the only one he lost. Remember the equally famous quote when he regained a majority in 1980, “Welcome to the 1980’s!”

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Ah so. I stand corrected.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Remember this SCMP story from a year ago…”Immigration mega-fraud: the rich Chinese immigrants to Canada who don’t really want to live there” and there were 1,200 fraudsters. Wonder how many were deported back to China. My guess is 0, zippo! Now if we can get immigration Canada to do their job along with the CRA!
http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1883085/immigration-mega-fraud-rich-chinese-immigrants-canada-who-dont-really

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

We need to bring back the death penalty for scum like Wang.

It’s an injustice that he’ll be out on the street in five years, he should be 6 feet under.

space889
Member
space889

While we are at it, we should include you in that list as well….I would even consider donating some $$$ to the Cdn gov’t to cover some of the costs.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Who says real estate always goes up?

A buddy bought a small rental house on the flats in Medicine Hat 10 years ago for $112,500 and he sold it today for $75,000. 33% loss before realtor fees which are about 7%.

JayTor
Guest
JayTor

I have a friend who moved to Saskatoon in 2012 bought a place and in 2015 he had to move back to Ontario. The purchase price and sale price were within a 1%…. but the transaction costs really added up, he believes when he adds up the legal fees, transfer taxes, mortgage early termination fees, etc. he lost over 25K.

The 25K is on top of the mortgage interest, property tax, repairs that all home owner fork over.

Not as bad as your buddy… but still crappy.

Ummm
Guest
Ummm

umm…rent savings. 10 years x 12 months x $800/month = $90,000 rent saved

Kim
Guest
Kim

Umm yeah and also opportunity cost to invest the money elsewhere.

JayTor
Guest
JayTor

interesting thought Ummm, but you don’t count any of the costs of ownership. Remember mortgage interest, taxes, utilities, repairs, maintenance, city assessments, insurance, condo fees, etc. are wasted money equivalent to rent. Additionally any money put down as a deposit does not provide income from investment.

space889
Member
space889

How many average Joe/Jane actually makes the market or the standard 60/40 asset mix return. I’m guessing not a whole lot.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Renters often pay utilities and insurance too.

Dave
Member
Here’s my prediction for the next couple years… I think we have a soft Fall and Winter 2016 for obvious reasons and we’re seeing the early stages of that. By the time the Spring market starts, we’ll be into the next Provincial election and housing will obviously remain a big issue with each party fighting over who is going to fix the problem. That’s going to scare a lot of the foreign money away temporarily. Interest rates will have risen a quarter to half point in the US by Summer 2017, possibly putting pressure on our long rates. I think the real litmus test for the market will be Fall 2017. If the market remains balanced, then foreign money was likely a smaller factor than many currently think. That would bode well for prices going forward. Conversely, if we’re in… Read more »
Oncebittwiceshy
Guest
Oncebittwiceshy
Dave, you tend to sound like a bear that recognized the fundamentals were way out of whack years ago. I’ll also presume that you knew enough back in 2008/2009 that emergency interest rates would create a lot of Monopoly money for kids who previously didn’t have enough money for down payments. I’m going to also presume that you are shrewd enough to understand the influence media has on the real estate markets. The yellow invasion, via helicopter and mile long lines, inundated the media scaring the beejesus out of new buyers (fomo) and created illusions of mass wealth in boomers hoping to retire on 2 or 3 property investments. The mass media, marketers of prices going up forever, are a fickle group as on the news tonight Chris Gaelus on Global commented on the freefall in real estate prices and… Read more »
Dave
Member

I did know all about what the Fed could do at the time because I’ve studied economics, do my homework and was well read up on it. I did predict QE before anybody heard of it here.

I called the correction before it started, said how deep it would go, when the recovery would start, that prices would resume their rise and take out the prior peak.

For the record, I turned bearish on this market before prices turned. I self described myself as a bear about a year ago.

My preference is for this market to return to sanity, where regular middle class people can live out their dreams. I don’t see that though.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Excellent, but what if interest rates rise? Just theoretically, how your scenario plays out on the current prices ( minus 10-15%). Who will be the local buyer?

Dave
Member

Our population is still going up, rental vacancies are very low and we don’t have an overhang of inventory. It doesn’t take a lot of buyers and it can be first timers, move ups or HAM.

Rates aren’t moving much, if anything I think the BOC is more likely to cut. Long rates could go up though too.

nufio
Guest
nufio

rates are never going up. there really is nothing new in the world. rates will eventually go negative like in europe and japan. you will be forced to take a position in assets that the elites own already by inflating currency.
but even if rates go to zero there is no earning power in the population in vancouver to service current prices.
im not talking about detached. Im talking about condos. detached houses if waht ALR says is correct is almost an insignificant factor in the median price of housing in vancouver.

AirBNB
Guest
AirBNB

Speaking detached houses here…..already down 10-20% since peak earlier in the yr…FACT

Dave
Member

No they’re not. Average is meaningless.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Bullshit it’s meanlingless.

You know what’s meaningless? Your self-important predictions are meaningless.

space889
Member
space889

And your constant insults, hatred, tirade are worse than useless.

The best part? You started complaining in what? 2006? now its 2016, talk about a lost decade and you are ever further, way further behind. But I’m sure your investing prowess and career have more than compensated?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

“investing prowess”? Pah. You’re missing the whole point. Housing is about housing, not, in the first instance, investing. Or, to the extent it is about investing, that has to mean collecting taxes. But in other comments on this thread you show that you’re in favor of immigrant investors and other speculators evading taxes. @Space

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Space, you deserve every insult Meth and others throw at you.

Dave
Member

If my predictions are meaningless, what does that make yours? I’ve been posting for just over eight years and I’ve basically shown myself to be Nostradaveus.

If I say it has no meaning, you should ask why.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

What a fuck-up we live in… All your predictions are revolving around RE-voracious Chinese and lack or absence of laws and regulations. Nothing is based on any economic fundamentals or any other logic and you aren’t necessarily wrong. Complete clusterfuck…

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Any hope for “normalization” is to get substantial tax policy changed and its strict enforcement. Basically to get institutions to their job properly and in accordance with laws and regulations, CRA, Immigration, Police, Banks.

PS. and regarding “normalization” I don’t mean barista or yoga-instructor buying a mansion on the west side, as the clown frequently claim to ridicule bears expectations, but a doctor with 20 years of experience, CEO of a local tech company, etc…

franko
Member
franko

“I have the benefit of seeing a lot of things first hand”

Care to enlighten us poor dumb slobs with whomever you might be rubbing shoulders with? Sounds a lot like the realtor gang to me.

Dave
Member

I’ve been through this discussion a number of times before. I need to stay anonymous. I think I’ve been posting long enough here and have gotten enough things right to have credibility. If I wasn’t anonymous, I wouldn’t be able to say the things I see first hand. So it’s not in your benefit to know this if you value my opinion, which quite frankly, you should.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

In your scenario, where will the money come from to pay for the higher priced housing?

Dave
Member

Once things settle out after the election, I think HAM will come back. Prices aren’t really an issue to HAM. Regulatory certainty definitely matters but after the election, that will be all cleared up. No chance the federal government stops the flow of bodies into this City in my opinion.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Do you disagree with studies saying that HAM represents 5, 10 or at most 15% of sales, or do you believe than even at this level, it’s enough to push prices higher?

My guess is that most of the money comes from locals leveraging and I would have thought that, in the absence of either increasing prices or cheaper credit, there will not be enough money to support the market. Do you see HAM driving the market even if leverage is maxed out?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

I agree with you. It was the locals pushing this market into the stratosphere. They used their home equity to buy other properties and they will be the ones to bail out of those properties with substantial losses, increase inventory levels because of this and drive prices even further downward.

Rising interest rates and tightening lending standards will be another factor in this along with the FACT that home ownership rates are already at all-time highs. The market has reached a saturation point

Dave is a RE pumper. with, it seems to me, a lot to lose…

Dave
Member

Ya, I’m such a pumper that I am calling for a real estate correction.

What is this 2008? Find a new line that at least makes sense.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

We are in the middle of a correction which, stated in average prices, recently clocked in at 20% down, so calling for a 10 to 15% correction would be a very optimistic view. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate your input, but it has never been at odds with the view of the official press releases from the Real Estate Board. You consistently call for moderate growth, except when prices are falling, when you call for a limited fall and a rapid return to growth. That’s fine, but not special.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

A “mild correction”…sounds like realtor-speak to me.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Dave forgets (or didn’t know) that Harper and his flunky Finance Minister Flaherty goosed the RE market with 0% down payments and 40 year mortgage amortizations, etc. back in 2008 on the heels of the GFC. They also upped CMHC limits…so, a “mild RE correction” it was. THEN. However, THIS time, the FEDS and the BoC are out of bullets.

Dave
Member

They can still cut rates to the zero bound. And then go negative.

Read what I said when Poloz made that first cut last year. I said I thought it would pump the bubble but probably only for a couple years.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

It seems to me that when it comes to real estate, people tend to confuse what they want to happen with what is actually likely to happen. That’s why so many people here seem to believe that RE is going to correct by 50 to 80%.

I know because I was one of them. For years I desperately wanted the big crash to happen – and I told everyone I knew not to buy because I was so convinced it would. Thankfully few of them listened.

So while I would love nothing more than an 80% correction, sadly I think 10 to 20 is more likely. There are just too many things holding this puppy up that are not likely to change.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I agree that there are so many, too many, things holding this puppy up. BUT. Cohodes says over 50% correction and in his case I don’t think it’s wishful thinking.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well, better to be wrong, wrong, wrong and then right instead of the other way around.

You should have listened to your gut.

Dave
Member
It depends on how you want to define HAM. I would call a lot of people who have say Permanent Residency or even full Citizenship HAM, while the government data would not. My definition of HAM would be people who invest in real estate here but are using the City as a place of convenience more than a place to permanently work and live. For example, a person attending UBC while living in a mansion is still HAM in my mind. Nobody can ever measure my definition of course. It’s just a speculative number. But in my view, it’s probably at least 25% of the market. No question, local money is the bigger factor. But there is more than enough HAM to distort the market. As far as running out of cheap credit, I don’t see that changing for a… Read more »
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Possibly some shit happens between US and China in the next while after the election. It isn’t sustainable to have them as many in North America.

Dave
Member

I trade stocks and one of the principles I follow is that trends continue until they stop. Sounds tautological, but the idea is to ride trends, not jump off too early or trade against trends.

Right now, we’re in a trend of where capital is leaving China and finding a home in a number of Western cities.

No trend is sustainable and all trends eventually end. The key is when. I have no idea and I don’t think anybody does. It could end in a year, 10 or even 20 years.

It’s fun to speculate what will cause a trend to end. In my experience, having traded hundreds of trends, most predictions are wishful thinking. The big events that everybody is convinced will end a trend are quite often incorrect.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

this would only divert more of “them” into canada

i tend to agree with Dave to a certain extent. once the election is over all bets are off as to what happens with foreign tax among other things. once a crook, always a crook in my opinion. for now i am not paying too much attention to what is effectively a thinly traded market. “average” prices for detached could move up/down double digit % in weeks just on a few outlier sales or lack thereof in certain price ranges (which is what we are currently seeing as no high end stuff is moving)

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Just saw the stats for attached sales volume Burnaby and East Vancouver combined Sept 1-13

2015 164
2016 24

Draw your own conclusions

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Housing Rally to #HALTtheMADNESS

Wonder if some organized group from Richmond will show this time, to beat protesters and fight for the rights of RE investors, like those idiots who came to lynch BC teachers during their strike.

https://www.facebook.com/events/866008003533169/

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

I will be there. My calender is marked.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
JOIN US on Saturday Sept 17th at 2 PM on the south side of the Vancouver Art Gallery. Let government know that you’ve had enough of the MADNESS that is the metro Vancouver housing market! We’ll be hosting a rally to demand continued government action on our out of control housing crisis. The best way to get the government’s attention is to fill the streets with upset voters and that’s what we intend to do. We want to make sure this is the #1 issue heading into the May 2017 BC Provincial election and we want to make sure your voice is heard. We’ve got a great panel of speakers lined up: – Christine Duhaime, a lawyer heavily involved in catching foreign money launderers in Vancouver – Josh Gordon, Assistant Professor, School of Public Policy, Simon Fraser University, who has… Read more »
space889
Member
space889

So you gonna be there?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

“– HALT Immigrant Investor Programs that bring in owners who do not contribute to our income tax base”

—–> Now its called the foreign student program and 10 year visitor visa program. Why not a halt to that? One well heeled foreign student who just got PR can buy as many houses as he wants to.

—->Why not tax 2nd homes with a property tax rate of 5X or higher?

—–>Why not enforce laws against those fraudulently claiming principle residence exemptions (MAJORITY)?

Dave
Member

Golden handcuffs, that’s why. Importing millionaires is the biggest industry in this Province. How far do we really expect the government to go in biting the hand that feeds it?

I think it will take a few big changes to sink this market. I’ll give the Province credit for taking the first shot by bringing in this tax.

The other two easy fixes are raising interest rates and cutting immigration. Good luck changing the later.

So if you really want to slow the market, lobby government to raise rates. In theory the BOC is independent, but they will ultimately listen.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I just read something that said the IMF is saying Canada should target any fixes to Vancouver and Toronto areas only. That makes me think it is recommending that Canada NOT raise its interest rates….

Dave
Member

Surprise surprise that the Poloz cuts did nothing for exports and only juiced real estate. I felt it would play out this way this time last year. We offshored manufacturing for the last three decades and became a service sector based economy.

I think a low dollar hurts our economy as much as it helps it. Going from parity to $.85 was already the maximum stimulus.

I think Poloz should raise rates to stop misallocation of capital into real estate. Central banks are supposed to reign in excess liquidity when it gets out of hand. He’s going to go down as the worst central banker in our history.

franko
Member
franko

Scythes and pitchforks are optional.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/cooling-vancouver-home-sales-cramp-average-price-but-b-c-market-still-strong

Muir admits to fewer supercharged prices from detached Vancouver properties and cooling sales in the city compared to the rest of B.C. Apparently the province-wide average price “skidded” 8.5%. Nothing to get excited about.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“The Canada Revenue Agency is looking deeper into tax evasion in some of the country’s hottest housing markets after reports suggesting many speculators are abusing the system and not paying enough tax on their gains.”

Lol, … not paying enough tax on their gains. Motherfuckers don’t pay any tax let alone enough.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cra-real-estate-tax-1.3759712

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canadian borrowers could face payment shock if interest rates rise” Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/canadian-borrowers-could-face-payment-shock-if-interest-rates-rise/article31838268/

“More than 700,000 Canadian borrowers could be facing payment shock on their debt obligations if interest rates rise by a quarter point, and that rises to as many as one million people should rates go up by 1 per cent, says a study by credit monitoring firm TransUnion.”

space889
Member
space889

This kind of study comes out almost every year for the last decade. Interest rate are more likely to fall to 0 before they go up 1%.

Also in 2008/2009, mortgage rate went up more than 1.5% to over 5% very quickly and most people handle it OK.

patriotz
Member

“most people handle it OK.”

During the US housing bust the proportion of properties in any state of foreclosure peaked at 3.5%. The total number of foreclosures was under 10 million. So yes, most people handled that OK.

JayTor
Guest
JayTor

Good point Patriotz, there were a lot of people stuck in their homes (underwater and no money to pay the difference). We also saw a lot of people walking away from the sale of their home with very little capital. They had paid a deposit and mortgage payments for years with nothing in return in the end.

space889
Member
space889

Uhm…so you had something to show in the end after paying years of rent??

patriotz
Member

Actually the point is that takes relatively few people in trouble to tank the market.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Maybe the 80/20 Pareto Principle will be “just enough”.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
vancouver is a tale of two markets though, one that feeds off varying grades of hamburger and one that gorges on wagyu beef among other delicacies that the average person can’t even relate to. the low to mid end buyer is going to feel it, maybe even wind up going belly up while HAM (not to mention sketchy european, russian, middle eastern and s. smerican money) will buy just more at a discount like spoiled fuerdai stock up on chanel handbags or race cars when a sale occurs. average local buyers that think they’ll be able to step into the market at the “bottom”, cherry pick a top shelf property in pt grey or elsewhere without any competition are dreaming. in the US post 2008 more and more RE wound up in the hands of the 1%. the small time… Read more »
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

I agree, nothing to worry about. Everything will be fine, should load up more condos in the meantime, off to openhouses.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Mortgage rates dropped from 2008 to 2009. This was part of the historic monetary stimulus that Central Banks initiated in the wake of the Financial Crisis.

https://www.superbrokers.ca/tools/mortgage-rate-history/

A litte bit of history;
“Monarchs of Money”, CBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8Seu9Uw4io

JayTor
Guest
JayTor

Space if the 1.5% raise comes with an employment shock they’ll be a lot of people not able to handle it.
The US fed is finally strongly signaling a hike, and bond rates are raising, the bank Canada can lower the rate but not without major fallout.
We could be sitting with a 50 cent dollar and 20% food inflation if they drop the rate.

space889
Member
space889

Uhm…check the rate hike odds, not really going up that much, might even be going down a little.

As for $0.50 dollar, not gonna happen unless Ottawa runs up $100B deficits. Please actually learn some econometrics basics before starting predictions like $0.50 dollar.

20% food inflation, yes very possible due to natural disasters and the fact that most of our “food” isn’t really actual food anymore.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“What were investors thinking? Interest rates must rise: Don Pittis”, CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/efficient-markets-interest-rates-1.3758179

“The reason for the market shock, as reported in the financial papers, was that both the European Central Bank and members of the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted that the free money era was coming to an end.

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi suggested Europe was considering ending the flood of new money into the world economy through the bank’s purchase of securities.
There were new rumblings the Fed might actually raise rates as soon as September.”

HAMster
Guest
HAMster
Rise in interest rates could cause trouble for some Canadians: TransUnion The Canadian Press, at 07:09 on September 13, 2016 TORONTO – A report by TransUnion says up to one million Canadian borrowers may not be able to absorb the increase in their monthly payments if interest rates rise by one full percentage point. The company says that while the majority of Canadians will not be materially impacted in the near term by an interest rate increase there is a “material subset” that may be challenged. TransUnion estimates approximately seven million Canadian consumers carry a variable-rate mortgage or a line of credit with a variable interest rate. The study found more than 700,000 could struggle with the increase in monthly payments related to a quarter-point hike and that rises to up to a million with a one percentage point increase.… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Plus if the inventory hits 10,000, then all bets are off as speculators/real estate agents will liquidate their holdings. Prices could drop 20%.

If inventory numbers hold then prices remaining stable.

I still think that we may see 7K inventory by year end.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Prices are already down 20% in August. With sales down even more than August at 75% so far in September prices are heading down fast. A little late for stability. Dreams of an amateur speculator? Don’t worry it will not affect the sawdust houses in SLurrey.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

So I just came back from Coal Harbour. Had dinner with some people and some notes:

1) 4 local investors put a bid on a westside home…a teardown…for $2.4 Million. $100,000 repost accepted. Then the tax came in. The buyers walked away from the deal and lost the $100,000 deposit.

Who says HAM isn’t driving this market?

2) talk was hang on to real estate for the long term as the population is only going to grow.

Slava
Guest
Slava

You declared you were leaving a week ago? So we all want to know what you are still doing here? Why did you change your mind?

Yellow Beaver
Guest
Yellow Beaver

First to call bullshit!

YVR
Guest
YVR

I think you can just call every post from the village idiot as bullshit. Just a troll.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Not great timing on Vale buying Whistler mountain…

Just saying

Madashell
Guest
Madashell

Bad news for Kenny Gu….”The Canada Revenue Agency has launched a review into the actions of B.C. real estate speculators in light of a Globe and Mail report that uncovered possible tax evasion and fraud.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/cra-launches-review-of-bc-real-estate-speculators/article31847258/

Dave
Member
The quality of staff at CRA is a big issue. The average person is just there to collect a pay check and benefits without accountability. Here is my solution…. In the 1980’s crash, the professionals involved in real estate switched teams. They went from working for developers to working for the banks that were foreclosing. Only the lawyers, accountants and engineers could help figure out where the money was ‘hidden’ and what value there was in partly constructed projects. In the same light, if the market softens, CRA should go and hire the private sector lawyers and accountants that know what’s really going on. They know how the money is getting into Vancouver and how all these deals are structured. A big part of that would be retaining these people anonymously. Nobody will sacrifice their client base or reputation otherwise.… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch

Even if this were possible, the CRA would need a huge Federal cash injection, which is the opposite of the way their budgets have been going for the last few years. I know quite a few folk who work there on the prosecution side and they are hampered and disinterested in doing what every bear is hoping for. It would take a major new innitiative from T2 down with money not just for investigstions but court time as well. Sorry to burst everyone’s CRA bubble.

Dave
Member

I agree. We have a broken system.

The Courts have enough budget. They just no idea of how to run things efficiently. Our Courts operate on the basis of making up the rules as they go along so there is never any legal certainty or predictability. I don’t think the public fully appreciates how arbitrary the whole thing is.

YVR
Guest
YVR

” Diane Lebouthillier, the minister responsible for the Canada Revenue Agency, said in statement on Monday. “That is unacceptable and I’ve since asked Canada Revenue Agency officials to look into the specifics of the case that was reported by the Globe and Mail recently.”

I bet we see about 10 houses being listed tomorrow tied to Gu. If you want to sell a Westside or West Van house fast you are going to have to list about 20% below peak then take what ever someone offers. Then those 10 sales at say 30% below peak set the price for the market. The house of cards is falling.

space889
Member
space889

How does CRA audit makes him want to sell more houses and generation more transactions & cash for CRA to audit and potentially pay taxes on?

I would be very interested in learning what CRA will eventually conclude from the audit. Hopefully some serious income tax penalties. But if the fines are light or non-existent then that would send a green light to everyone else to basically do the same thing. Likely affect how well that 15% foreign tax thing go as well.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I agree with Space, which is sad, why would he sell and trigger more paperwork? Besides which laws has he broken apart from tax evasion? He’s running a private mortgage pool. My wealthy mechanic does the same with his family. Even Rob Chpman’s brother set one up to buy Phoenix houses. Legal. When we were renting we ran into many landlord who were doing the same, including one run by the VPD chief at the time.

space889
Member
space889

Wow, VPD chief?? Wow….

I guess you better make sure the rent cheque is always on time and never cause any troubles? 😛

YVR
Guest
YVR

He won’t have to pay taxes on the recent sales because he won’t be making any money.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Because he will be fleeing the country. Otherwise he will be doing 10 years prison and have to pay millions in back taxes.

space889
Member
space889

Very unlikely.. .

Remember that fraud immigration guy? He didn’t even has to pay back all the ill gotten gains and very lttile if any jail time.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

If he got punished properly that could be seen as racist, right?

space889
Member
space889

Only by you…

Bob
Guest
Bob

Probably posted before, but heck lets see it again:

Top 100 Chinese Fugitives:

Anyone see their neighbor?

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/att/site1/20150423/002170196e1c16a28b910f.pdf

space889
Member
space889

They would all claim either death penalty if they are send back to China, or refugee status on some other causes like potential likelihood for personal harm, political dissences, etc, and fight a lengthy decade+ court battle with any attempt to extradite them, likely at taxpayers expense.

3 words – Lai Chang Xing – the best ad Canada ever put out to all corrupt officials with dirty laundry.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

True. Again: a CRA audit is one thing. Getting a judgement is something else. A six year court sentence should net 18 months of actual time served.

space889
Member
space889

And that’s if th gov’t sticks it out to the end….and really, after all the costs, is it even worth it? Given that our jail is pretty comfy relatively speaking to other jails around the world. And I read that it costs like $100K / prisoner / year in a med security jail?

Really, I would prefer the money to put better use like maybe compensating the victims. Our justice system is really just a forced vacation for these type of people.

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Oracle,

7,000 listings this month, by month end…were you serious when you said that?

You sticking to that forecast? Immigration going to scoop up a few thousand listings in coming weeks?

HAM? Syrians? Portuguese?

Who’s going to flood in before month-end?

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

I hate how all the Syrians are snatching up all the good property on the westside… All corrupt arent they oracal?