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Friday Free-for-fall!

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Autumn is here! Can you smell it?

This being the end of the week, let’s do another Friday Free-for-all shall we?

This is our regularly programmed end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, we do this every week if you’re new here.

So let’s get to a few links to kick off the chat:

–Mayor: foreign buyer tax too little, too late
–Opinions? Share them with the city.
–Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis in same trap
–Bigger bubble than London
–AirBn…waitwhataretherulesagain?
–Housing Crisis? Blame Canadians.
–Skook blogs again! Bowen and Coast stats
–Millenials: No Retirement for you!
–Correction to be painful.
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent bubble-filled weekend!

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bullwhip29

Christy Clark’s government stands alone in denial of housing crisis: NDP
http://www.voiceonline.com/christy-clarks-government-stands-alone-in-denial-of-housing-crisis-ndp/

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bullwhip29

New mortgage rules will ‘reduce the risk’ a housing crash poses to Canada’s economy
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/new-mortgage-rules-will-reduce-the-risk-a-housing-crash-would-pose-to-canadas-economy

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Newcomer-can\'t-post

As I understood it, the idea was to address “concerns that pockets of risk have emerged in some housing markets.” I guess they are referring to the risk of bubbles forming, but I doubt that would happen. We are pretty financially conservative in Canada, after all.

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bullwhip29

Vancouver realtors warn of dramatic sales slump as September data expected
http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/vancouver-realtors-warn-of-dramatic-sales-slump-as-september-data-expected

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bullwhip29

FULL TEXT: VANCOUVER — Real estate agents say home sales continued to fall dramatically in the Vancouver area last month and even hit a 10-year low in some neighbourhoods. Agents say the high-end detached home market is seeing the most substantial losses, while the condominium and townhome market remains active. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, which covers a large swath of Metro Vancouver but excludes several large suburbs including Surrey, is set to release its home sales data for the month of September tomorrow. The numbers are expected to provide more insight into the effects of British Columbia’s foreign-buyers tax, which was introduced Aug. 2 after the market already showed signs of cooling. Realtor Steve Saretsky has analyzed the listing and sales data and he says sales fell to 2006 levels on the city’s east side, to 2008… Read more »

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bullwhip29

Twitter explodes in anger as flag of Communist China raised at Vancouver City Hall
http://www.therebel.media/twitter_explodes_in_anger_as_flag_of_communist_china_raised_at_vancouver_city_hall

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Combat roach

“Poor guy” got banged by pranksters. He must be naive as Little Red Riding Hood.

“Peschisolido, who also participated in the event as a Liberal MP, said it was a good way to engage with the Chinese government and promote democratic reform.

He said he was told the red scarf was a symbol of “the cultural background of 5,000 years of Chinese civilization.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-city-hall-chinese-flag-1.3789155

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Newcomer-can\'t-post

Oh, OK. Now I get it.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/10/03/the-tax-whack/

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Boombust

I wonder why it is taking so long for the September REBGV stats? Is spinmeister Muir trying extra hard to word things “just so”?

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Combat roach

Vancouver Realtors warn of dramatic sales slump as September data expected

http://www.metronews.ca/business/2016/10/03/vancouver-realtors-warn-of-dramatic-sales-slump-as-september-data-expected.html

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Kim

Funny one of my realtor friends told me that sales trends have absolutely reversed in September and that the foreigners were buying again.

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Boombust

Your “friend” is a liar.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

What we want is a SUSTAINED sales slump, not a dramatic one that might pop up high again next week. IMHO in gratitude for all good things .

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Boombust

It doesn’t work that way. It’s going to be going down for a LONG time.

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southseacompany

“Ottawa’s new mortgage requirements could make it harder to secure a mortgage”, Global News with video

http://globalnews.ca/news/2979863/ottawas-new-mortgage-requirements-could-make-it-harder-to-secure-a-mortgage/

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YVR

And starting Nov. 30, mortgage loans insured using portfolio insurance (mortgage default insurance) will need to meet loan eligibility criteria that previously only applied to highly leveraged insured mortgages, including a maximum amortization length of 25 years and minimum credit scores.

Looks like these new rules will impact virtually all mortgages! Wow.

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Billybonger

Oracle – will this change spur an avalanche of buying prior to the 17th?

Buy now or be priced out forever?

Is this part of the process to take total listings down to 7,000 by month end?

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Boombust

Rate Hub has done some calculations re: the new mortgage rules…

Currently, buyers with a combined income of $100K and a $40K down payment can qualify for a $665,435K mortgage. AFTER October 17, the same buyers will “only” qualify for a $505,762K mortgage.

Oracle?

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Whistler or Bust?

Two more nails driven into the coffin of the Vancouver RE market today.

After years of pretending nothing was happening its a race to implement new measures by politicians trying to save their own hides.

After years of wanting these spineless politicians to do something it has become and embarrassment of riches!

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YVR

That essentially takes 25% off the amount they can qualify for. That is massive.

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YVR

We have just seen the equivalent of rates going up by a full 2% for CMHC mortgages. So much for that hot condo market.

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Combat roach

I wouldn’t be surprised if Canada now goes through some serious subprime mortgage’s adventure (Vancity, private lenders, etc.) for some time and before everything totaly falls apart.

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bullwhip29

so, i guess this means underwriters will be swamped with applications over the next couple of weeks

also important that sale of principal residence must be declared now

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Combat roach

No problem, Costco in Bellevue, Washington – Special Events, Bosendorfer – Butterfly Marquetry Piano (includes matching bench) – $139,999.99 USD. Guess who the target audience is, although why all these 9s in price?

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Combat roach

In keeping with the Viennese tradition of incorporating art into the craft of piano-making, the unique design on the inside of the lid recreates a beautiful scene from nature, inspired by the Viennese Schönbrunn Palace and the Imperial Butterfly House. “The back story makes the piano more remarkable and beautiful, adding value aesthetically that other pianos don’t,” Oss says. “Another interesting aspect of the design is the inclusion of eight butterflies; a number considered as lucky by Asian cultures. The butterflies symbolize love, romance, happiness, immortality and rebirth.”

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HAMster

Here’s another puff piece from the CBC:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/does-owning-a-home-make-you-feel-more-canadian-1.3788419?cmp=rss

Kind of a strange “news” article considering the reason why Canadians can’t afford a house in the first place is because of foreigners buying our houses out from under us.

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Billybonger

Boom bust,

Will it impact on Oracle’s mansion under construction?

What about his claim that he and his relatives wil buy up ALL the detached homes, hence preventing any correction?

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Boombust

Worse than that. He may have to emigrate to South Africa and live in a cardboard box on the outskirts of Johannesburg.

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Ray

Update for West Van & North Van detached, last 3 quarters. West Van Q1 Sales: 368 Q1 Average Price: $3,791,806 Q1 Gross Dollar: $1,395,370,000 Q2 Sales: 290 (-21.98%) Q2 Average Price: $3,683,264 (-2.68%) Q2 Gross Dollar: $1,068,646,000 (-23.42%) Q3 Sales: 80 (-72.41%) Q3 Average Price: $3,210,183 (-12.84%) Q3 Gross Dollar: $256,814,685 (-75.96%) Since Aug.2 Sales: 39 (30 excluding Lion’s Bay) Since Aug.2 Average Price: $2,868,781 Since Aug.2 Gross Dollar: $111,882,471 North Van Q1 Sales: 413 Q1 Average Price: $1,719,471 Q1 Gross Dollar: $710,141,648 Q2 Sales: 469 Q2 Average Price: $1,922,114 Q2 Gross Dollar: $901,471,753 Q3 Sales: 177 (-62.26%) Q3 Average Price: $1,768,573 (-7.98%) Q3 Gross Dollar: $313,037,550 (-65.27%) Since Aug.2 Sales: 101 Since Aug.2 Average Price: $1,712,398 Since Aug.2 Gross Dollar: $172,952,228 In short, it’s a bloodbath. Sales have dropped -70%, Prices have dropped -10% on average, and North Van… Read more »

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Boombust

There is nothing that can turn this market around. It is now in free fall and it is searching for a bottom.

And, so ends the BIGGEST RE bubble Vancouver has ever seen; in both intensity and duration.

“The bigger they are, the harder they fall”.

Oracle? Over to you…

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funky monkey

According to Oracle its almost time to buy.

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Oracle

Not really, prices are still much higher than 12 months ago.

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Oracle

Delusional i tell you. Sellers aren’t selling for lower prices. Its a stand off right now.

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Combat roach

So? It is time to buy while the “stand off” still lasts. From here prices will only go up, right?

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Combat roach

“The Chinese government is extending its influence into our society and into Canadian governments — municipal, MLAs and MPs,” Huang alleged. “Lots of people are worried about this … We worry about our economy, our society, and our national security.”

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2016/10/02/china-flag-ceremony-vancouver-city-hall-raises-red-flags.html

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Best place on meth

“But Jang, who attended the event as the city’s Acting Mayor, lashed out at critics — asking why no one protested City Hall’s recent Mexican or Slovenian flag-raising events.

“To me, this is just racism pure and simple,” he told Metro. “Why pick on the Chinese?”

Yes, it’s always racism, isn’t it?

Even when it’s chinese who are outraged at the communist flag being raised on Canadian soil, it’s because of racism.

Vote out this disgusting traitor at the next election, along with Moonbeam.

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Newcomer-can\'t-post

Of the two things announced, the mortgage rate stress test is much more important. To be honest, I can’t even understand how the foreign buyer thing is a change. “[A]n individual who was not resident in Canada in the year the individual acquired a residence will not be able to claim the exemption for that year,….” It seems hard to imagine that a significant number of people were claiming both that they were not resident in Canada and that, at the same time, their principal residence was in Canada, in a given year. I am probably missing something. Can anyone set me straight.

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Donald T

Your thinking is too linear, try looping it may help.

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Oracle

semantics. no real change here.

they just threw the words ‘foreigner’ in there to make it look like it has substance.

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cat in the hat

“an individual who was not resident in Canada in the year the individual acquired a residence will not be able to claim the exemption for that year,” Morneau said.

It reminds us resident or residency or reside could have very little to do with a “person living in a home”. It makes me wonder what an individual is? Is cat an individual, can I put land title under may cat name? or can thingamajigger files a tax return, and exempt form capital gain?

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bullwhip29

so, it all boils down to many checks and balances by CRA to insure that… – a tax return is filed properly – the income declared by tax filer makes sense – person resided not only in Cda but at a particular address (if property was sold) – current law should require sale of any property to be declared now (incl principal residence); if you arent cheating, you have nothing to worry about – address and names on title also jive with date of acquisition (for capital gains purposes and other reasons) – any declared rental income for a particular property reconciles with “principal residence” declaration and vacancy tax purposes; can no longer have cake and eat 100% of it now; of course now airbnb operators currently not declaring income will need business licence – and so on and so… Read more »

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Combat roach

The more rules are convoluted the more room for cheat-masters and notorious fraudsters becomes available to excel in their game of scamming the system. Only right way to do it is to stop the plague entirely at the gates, immigration, students, housewives, fake parents, etc…

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bullwhip29

article from the Guardian re Vanc foreign buyers tax…
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/sep/30/vancouver-canada-house-prices-solution-super-heated-housing-market

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southseacompany

“Ottawa alters rules to curb foreign money in Canadian housing”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ottawa-housing-tax-real-estate-1.3788725

“Another change is that from now on, all insured mortgages must undergo a “stress test” that ensures a borrower’s ability to make their mortgage payments at a higher interest rate. Effectively, borrowers will be tested against their ability to pay their mortgage if actual rates were as high as the Bank of Canada’s conventional five-year mortgage rate, which is currently 4.64 per cent.”

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franko

“The CRA says it completed nearly 2,500 audits related to real estate I BC and Ontario between April 2015 and June 2016, and that the agency plans to do as many (or more?) next year”

In other words, NO CHANGE…while McCallum is bent on doubling immigration from China.
What a pitiful joke!

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bullwhip29

http://www.fin.gc.ca/n16/16-117-eng.asp

>>> not exactly a lot of details here but definitely lots of balls flying in the air now for many participants in the RE mkt

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Combat roach

“Overall, I believe the housing market is sound but as Minister of Finance I want to make sure we are proactive in assessing and addressing the factors that could lead to excess risk,” he told reporters in Toronto.

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Boombust

Yeah. Sure.

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history

http://www.sciencealert.com/80-of-the-data-in-chinese-clinical-trial-is-fabricated

“A Chinese government investigation has revealed that more than 80 percent of the data used in clinical trials of new pharmaceutical drugs have been “fabricated”.

“The report uncovered fraudulent behaviour at almost every level, and showed that some pharmaceutical companies had hidden or deleted records of potentially adverse side effects, and tampered with data that didn’t meet their desired outcomes.”

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HAMster

Lying, cheating, stealing. That whole country is a fraud and a sham.

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history

Assymetrical warfare. Employing every conceivable business vice to invade. It makes me think of the opposite. What would it look like for a Westerner to employ every conceivable virtue to move to Tibet?

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Combat roach

And, that is alright as long as they keep it there and stop spreading their shit across the globe.

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david

Breaking News!
Ottawa finally tries closing real estate barn door

Not only are the stalls empty, but the hinges and most lumber on the barn door are gone.

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HAMster

Feds to close tax loophole for foreign home buyers: report.
http://globalnews.ca/news/2978745/feds-to-close-tax-loophole-for-foreign-home-buyers-report/

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Best place on meth

This legislation is clearly racist, anti-chinese and nothing more than a thinly veiled head tax.

A class action lawsuit is warranted.

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Dubai..”.By contrast, the recent price falls feel benign. To Godchaux, they demonstrate an economy that is more diversified, a mortgage industry that has learnt its lesson — a 25 per cent minimum deposit, increasing for second and more expensive homes, has been introduced — and a banking industry that is better regulated. “Buyers haven’t all left at the same time. Fewer of them are speculators, and those that are have deeper pockets,” he says”

Why can we not do this?

https://www.ft.com/content/7847818a-8012-11e6-8e50-8ec15fb462f4

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patriotz

“Why can we not do this?”

Because Dubai is a monarchy where the ruler doesn’t have to worry about the next election. Not a joke.

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patriotz

I should have added they have already had their bust, so these measures are aimed at preventing another bubble, not popping an existing one.

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Oracle

If houses fell 30%, my friends and I and extended family will buy up all he detached that go on sale.

So you see, no 50% correction coming.

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david

This shrewd thinking is why the stock market is actually risk-free ( unlike what most dumb people think!)….if it ever goes down, you just buy it all up.
Presto!

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funky monkey

If houses fell 30% you would have no job its our only economy. Also people stop buying when prices drop.

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Nom Nom Nom

Ah… the hubris of a speculator who has not seen a correction… This is going to be entertaining on so many levels. My schadenfreude is on the rise!

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