BC, economy, opinion, politics, prices

HALT Rally Recap

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155 Comments

HALT_YVR wrote in with a recap of this weekends rally and a link to video of the first 4 speakers:

Hi all,

We just wanted to say thanks to everyone that managed to make it out to our rally this Saturday. Despite the lousy weather, we managed to get 200 people out to make noise about this housing crisis slowly grinding local Vancouverites into dust. We had some great speakers that ran the gamut from average citizens to lawyers, economists, and activists. For those that didn’t get a chance to make it out, here’s a video of the first 4 of our 6 speakers. It’s long at 45 min but well worth the listen: https://youtu.be/h6wRS-fMHi4

We’ll keep you posted on future events that are just now in the planning stages. Expect another event to draw attention to our housing crisis and pressure government in the next two months.

In the meantime like our FB Page to keep up with all the latest updates: https://www.facebook.com/HALTVancouver/

Thanks again for your support,
The HALT Team

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Oracle

I’m thinking 50% of the money buying real estate in metro Vancouver is foreign. It’s recent immigrants who just got Permanent residency that are buying multiple properties.

Either CRA should do its job by cross checking land registries or cities/provinces should start taxing second homes at 2,5% per year.

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Oracle

Eliminating this foreign money would result in a 40% crash in prices in metro. I kid you not.

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yvr2zrh

I know I’m stating the obvious – but – – don’t we all recall several real estate agents making public comments such as: “My foreign clients don’t care – this tax will not stop them”. or some West Vancouver real estate agent saying “After the tax, my business has never been busier”. So – with 98% of the foreign $$$ seemingly taken out of the market by this tax, and with West Vancouver being completely comatose with no sales over $2 million and only 5 detached sales Month to Date – – – This West Vancouver guy is completely lying – – as are all the agents that are saying that the tax will do nothing. So – here we are – at a turning point. What will the market do? Will it now essentially collapse downward from the top?… Read more »

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Oracle

Correction. Foreign money is still coming in via permanent residents.

It’s the students who can’t funnel money in anymore. They will wait for PR and then buy.

Got to institute the 2nd home tax ASAP to bring this market to sanity.

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Its_the_ALR_stupid

Completely agree that those 60 foreign (and partially-foreign) owned properties should be thoroughly investigated and any cheats very publicly named, shamed, fined, and jailed.

However I think there is likely a much bigger problem afoot – the other 99.3% of sales where the buyer claimed to be 100% local. I strongly suspect that many of these are proxy buyers, but there’s no way to know how many. Unfortunately I don’t think the auditors have much chance of finding most of them, assuming they even look.

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yvr2zrh

Not to be funny but – – if I was to audit the 100% owned transactions, I would start by looking at the owners list and choose the items which sound like my favorites on a dim sum menu . . . . .

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Shut It Down Already

Another racist steps forward!

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YVR

I bet most of this local/foreigner partnership was done for deals already committed pre-tax that the foreigner couldn’t get out of so they brought in a local partner (real estate agent?). Obviously the government will audit these and out them. Either way it is a one off for August for deals already committed. Foreigners have moved on now and won’t be back.

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Combat roach

Most important part would be the speed by all means. Sooner and faster Canada starts to ship garbage back, better.

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bullwhip29

West Vancouver wins ‘locals first’ sales plan from condo developer Joanne Lee-Young Published on: September 21, 2016 | Last Updated: September 21, 2016 6:56 PM PDT http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/west-vancouver-wins-locals-first-sales-plan-from-condo-developer Prices for proposed Westbank Corp. condos in Horseshoe Bay are dropping by more than 25 per cent on average at the same time as the Vancouver-based developer adopts a “locals first” policy that will initially sell only to buyers who live, work or own businesses in West Vancouver. Earlier this week, the company got initial rezoning approval from the District of West Vancouver for its plans to build an upscale condo project in Horseshoe Bay on land long-held by the family that runs Sewell’s Marina. Westbank and the Sewells had pulled back their development application in July after local residents, business owners and councillors complained the initial prices presented by Westbank to potential… Read more »

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bullwhip29

Is the B.C. property levy on ‘foreign buyers’ a new head tax?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/is-the-bc-property-levy-on-foreign-buyers-a-new-head-tax/article32013536/

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Combat roach

who cares, it can be called a locust tax…

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Best place on meth

Dumbest question ever.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Stupid article, not reflective of the facts. How does he have tenure at a place like UBC?

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bullwhip29

Foreigners were buying one in four Richmond homes before tax
http://www.richmond-news.com/news/foreigners-were-buying-one-in-four-richmond-homes-before-tax-1.2349606

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Shut It Down Already

The greedy greedy locals just aren’t getting the memo:

http://www.vancouversun.com/gamble+double+your+housing+market+keeping+your+home+after+moving/12214968/story.html

But, hey, blame China.

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Oracles sawdust house

PaulB how much closer are we to 10k today?

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paulb

New
194
Sold
131

TI:9905

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Ktown

Sept 23, 2015
New – 675
Sold – 546

Sept 25, 2015
New – 976
Sold – 878

Nope… doesnt look like things have slowed down at all….

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Ktown

TI was just shy of 12k these days last year.

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wwwww

Everyone agrees that things are slower now than they were last year. But that isn’t because this year is bad. It’s because last year was so amazing. Just look at

Sales activity is normal and inventory is low. All you have to do is look at the numbers. This isn’t rocket science people. Wishful thinking doesn’t work despite what you read in “The Secret”.

Sept 23, 2014

New Listings 277
Price Changes 101
Sold Listings 175
TI:16037

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Boombust

Oh, this year is bad, alright. It really is “different this time”.

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Shut It Down Already

Those numbers were for the entire week, not one day.

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Newcomer

I don’t think those numbers are right.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dYtxpv5aEMF-Ccyyb8sKmtHI4nQL8rqP4vEVxMx4VUc/edit#gid=0

Also, here is some historical perspective:
http://vancouvercondo.info/2012/10/lowest-september-sales-in-15-years.html

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Ktown

They are single day numbers posted by paulb i went back to the individual days and screen shotted them to gather all the numbers. They are correct or paulb posted them wrong.

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Newcomer

Those would be the second and third highest days in the four years of data I have. You go them from here at VCI?

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Oh oh

1 more sleep 1 more digit. …Thanks Paul

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xyz

Oliver: We have no choice but to slap a tax on Toronto houses being bought by foreigners

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/joe-oliver-we-have-no-choice-but-to-slap-a-tax-on-toronto-houses-being-bought-by-foreigners

TO next?

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Combat roach

The U.S. Treasury Department has designated Vancouver-based company PacNet a “significant transnational criminal organization” as part of a crackdown on mail fraud.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/pacnet-criminal-fraud-treasury-1.3774587

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No Money Down

Interesting Stats on Foreign Buyers/Property Transfer tax
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/Property_Transfer_Tax_Report_June_10_to_Aug_31_2016.pdf

Metro Van Sales to Foreign nationals (% in terms of total value)
Metro Van June 10 – Aug 1 (Pre tax): 1974 sales or 16.5% of total value (27% in Richmond!)
Metro Van Aug 2 – Aug 31 (Post tax): 60 sales or 0.7 % of total value

Metro Van Foreign sales averaged 282 per week (1974/7weeks) pre tax , and 15 per week (60/4 weeks) post tax , down 95%.

Wow!

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Best place on meth

They’re going to other locations, thank god.

The “dispersion” of chinese hordes is a hot topic on many fronts.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/profdrwolfganggarlt/2016/09/22/countries-want-chinese-tourists-just-not-all-in-the-same-place/#6109b9b95c0d

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Combat roach

Chinese should build replicas of all interesting cities and tourist attractions in China. In that way, they would invest locally and spend as tourists locally, while sparing the rest of the world of their bold presence and annoyance either as investors or tourists.

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Best place on meth

They should also build replicas of all types of toilets in first world countries so that they can practice using them when they unfortunately travel abroad.

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Best place on meth

Thailand, which in the first half of 2016 alone saw about five million Chinese arrivals, stopped the flow of Chinese driving RVs through Laos to northern Thailand after a spike in road accidents and waste management problems involving Chinese drivers.

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Shut It Down Already

Yet sales continue. What does that tell you?

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LS in Arbutus

Thank god for David Eby. Truly.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Amen Amen

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david

Anyone got a timeline of Garth “the idiot” Turner’s insightful posts over that same period?
Greater Fool indeed…

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Billybonger

Oracle

Will these stats help drive listings down to 7,000 by month (oops, I mean updated to year end) end?

Do you foresee a significant slowing of listings and ramp up in sales this fall?

Pray tell Oracle?

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Oracle

Grow up Loser.

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Oracles sawdust house

You sure like spouting off when you think your right Oracle.
Your a fool just as blind as the other suckers building in the current market. I sure hope you didnt take out a builders mortgage that requires an appraisal after completion… your sawdust house wont be worth the land you built it on.

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Shut It Down Already

IP Ban?

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donald t

3rd grader.

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Best place on meth

Seize this dirtbags properties and send him back.

http://theprovince.com/business/real-estate/mysterious-wheeler-dealer-is-at-centre-of-a-web-of-b-c-real-estate-deals

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Its_the_ALR_stupid

So I think I have partly figured out the discrepancy pointed out by yvr2zrh above. First off, here is a link to the the data from the BC government: https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/Property_Transfer_Tax_Report_June_10_to_Aug_31_2016.pdf The curious thing is how $50M in foreign purchases resulted in only $2.5M in tax, when it should be $7.5 (15% of $50M). Here’s what’s going on: From the data: Total value of all property transfers involving foreign nationals (Aug 2-31): $46,869,877 Total investment from foreign nationals based on % ownership (Aug 2-31): $17,135,140 So it seems that many of the sales involving a foreign owner are partly owned by foreigners (who are subject to the tax) and partly owned by locals (who are not subject to the tax). Interestingly, only 36% of purchases (by dollar value) involving at least one foreign buyer were claimed to be “foreign owned” (17.1M… Read more »

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Oracle

Who said this tax is prorated ?

If a foreign purchaser is partly involved then tax full price. This seems shady.

Gov left loophole purposely ?

Foreigner buys 10% and PR buys 90%. Later , PR mysteriously gets name off title.

Unbelievable. Not really. This gov is corrupt.

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Oracle

Denying purposely left in this loophole. Now every property is going to be bought this way. Will even declare Principal residence lol. And then local buyer takes name off title as a ‘gift’. All without CRA knowing. Hahaha

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Oracle

Denying = Dejong

Damn auto correct

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southseacompany

“Canada’s Housing Market Crisis Is Your Fault”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/ben-myers/canadas-housing-market-crisis_b_12134820.html

“The first time I heard the line “you’re not stuck in traffic, you are traffic” I immediately liked it. People tend to ignore their participation and impact on a situation and often believe things are happening to them, not because of them. I wanted to explore this concept as it applies to the Canadian real estate, specifically the Vancouver and Toronto metro area housing markets.”

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southseacompany

“Foreign investment was almost 6% of about 48,000 residential real estate transactions from June 10 through August 31”, Indo-Canadian Voice

http://www.voiceonline.com/foreign-investment-was-almost-6-of-about-48000-residential-real-estate-transactions-from-june-10-through-august-31/

“FOREIGN investment accounted for nearly 6% of the approximately 48,000 residential real estate transactions in British Columbia between June 10 and August 31, amounting to about 8.8% of the $31 billion in residential property that changed hands, according to the latest real estate transaction data released by the provincial government on Thursday.”

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Just me

Numbers do NOT add up. Dividing tax revenue by value of sales to foreigners, we get a number much smaller than 15%. What is going on? Are the BC liberals going to examine the discrepancy, or let it fall through the cracks?

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HAMster

Foreign nationals buy nearly $1 billion in real estate day before targeted tax.
http://www.news1130.com/2016/09/22/foreign-nationals-buy-nearly-1-billion-in-real-estate-day-before-targeted-tax/

Chinese will buy the whole city if given the chance.

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southseacompany

“Foreign investment in Vancouver residential real estate plunges after new tax introduced”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/foreign-buyers-tax-data-1.3772158

“Total percentage of residential sales involving foreigner buyers dropped from 16.5% to 0.7%”

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patriotz

As the subsequent post by HAMster shows, this has to be taken in context with the huge number of closings pulled forward to beat the deadline. I think you’ll really have to wait to October to see the real picture.

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Madashell

David Eby Tweets: $2.3bn+ int’l money into #VanRE in 3 months. 1 in 4 transactions in Burnaby and Richmond. 15% in Vancouver.
But…. Krusty said it was only 5%, now she won’t even release stats.

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Oracle

Wake me up when they:

1) start preventing PR people from buying second homes. It’s the IIP people that are still funnelling money into RE. And also raise the capital gains on a RE sale.

2) stop the “principal residence” fraud.

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realist

” “stop the principal residence” fraud.”
Well said. The main vehicle of tax evasion via RE is the tax exempt status of the “principal residence”. Its beauty is that it is a passive evasion: there’s no need for declarations, applications, etc.: the homeowner simply does not report to CRA the rental income or capital gain on a sale, as pointed out by patriotz. So long as the current arrangements are in place, these will continue to be very widespread practices. And this dependable, low-risk opportunity for tax evasion mightily contributes to the current lust for RE.

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patriotz

“And this dependable, low-risk opportunity for tax evasion ”

Having every transaction permanently on record with the government and open to the public is not what I would call low risk.

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realist

Rents are usually not on record with government, but of course sales are. Evasion has been low risk because CRA has chosen consistently to ignore this sector for decades, as so well covered by Ian Young/ SCMP. And that is why the practice is so prevalent.

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yvr2zrh

Foreign buyer stats for August are released. A couple of things to note. 1.) Only 60 transactions . Total was around $50 million in sales. 2.) Tax raised was $2.5 million. Two things stand out. 1.) 90+ percent of the foreign money has been pushed away. 2.) How the freakin’ h-ll did this only raise 5% tax – – – sounds like some serious deal structuring. . Looks like in these 60 transactions – people are partnering with a local who is not subject to the tax. The auditors should look through to see if the funds were essentially gifted from the foreigner to the local – to make the “purchase” on behalf of the foreigner – – and then just go after the foreigner anyway – under the GAAR provisions of the act. So – there you have it… Read more »

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UBC in Crisis Mode

“The auditors should look through to see if the funds were essentially gifted from the foreigner to the local”.
Which auditors? There is none from CRA.

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yvr2zrh

BC has its own property purchase tax auditors. The press release says it and says these auditors are basically going to go see what’s going on. You can see why Dejong was saying last week that there were some unusual anomalies. The anomalies are massive. Either the government has some bad math or somebody has some splanin’ to do . . . . They have a serious incentive to get someone on display as having been caught pretty quickly.

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tim

Does anybody remember the scene in “Never Cry Wolf”, where the isolated biologist has his supplies eaten by mice, and hits on a solution?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKMBk3js7e0

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Foreign buyers haven’t been pushed out. They are simply evading the foreign buyer’s tax (aka “phone a friend tax”).

After everything we’ve seen Canadians still don’t get it. Even I didn’t expect this kind of naivety.

Cheating and crooked dealing is their primary nature. We’ve seen countless examples. You people don’t stand a chance. I feel sorry for all of you.

Learn Mandarin.

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Oracle

Agreed.

Only way is to have a yearly tax on 2nd homes and also enforce the capital gains tax.

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