BC, economy, opinion, prices, renting

Housing Action Rally Saturday Sept 17th 2pm

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151 Comments

 

Housing Action for Local Taxpayers (HALT) is a group of Vancouverites whose goal is to pressure government to take action on local housing affordability.

HALT wrote in to let everyone at VCI know they are holding a rally at the Vancouver Art Gallery this Saturday Sept 17th at 2pm.

They have a  great line up of speakers including Christine Duhaime the Vancouver lawyer focused money laundering.

More information can be found on their Facebook page.

Here’s some info from their comment yesterday:

Specifically we are calling on Government to:
– HALT money laundering and tax fraud by individuals hiding their money in our housing market
– HALT Immigrant Investor Programs that bring in owners who do not contribute to our income tax base
– HALT corporate donations to political parties. For too long, our governments have served moneyed interests and not the interests of the citizens of our city and our province
– HALT AirBnB of our rental stock. We need regulations in place to protect our renters
– HALT demolitions of affordable rentals that are being replaced by unaffordable luxury condos marketed to offshore buyers

We’ve got a great panel of speakers lined up including:
– Christine Duhaime, a lawyer heavily involved in catching foreign money launderers in Vancouver
– Josh Gordon, Assistant Professor, School of Public Policy, Simon Fraser University, who has done extensive research on the impact of foreign capital on our housing market
– Dr. Darren Joneson, whose housing story we featured on our Facebook page
– Caroline Adderson, author of the book “Vancouver Vanishes” owner of FB community of the same name, will talk about demolitions of heritage homes, zoning and how we create density in a liveable, sustainable city
– Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze, who will talk about the the challenges millenials face in getting into the housing market and Gen Squeeze’s “Homes First” policy.

Please come out, stand up, be counted, and let our government officials know that enough is enough!

Thanks for your support,
The HALT Team

You can find more info on their Facebook page and at haltvancouver.org.

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[…] –Ottawa making housing fix a top priority –Thanks for the help –Impact of housing on economy –Fake assets –Goodbye Vancouver –Empty Land –Household debt bigger than GDP –Average Weekly Inventory chart –Why the borrowing binge will end badly – […]

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Madashell

All the pressure from Kathy T, Sam C, Ian Y, seems to be paying off: “Ottawa making housing fix a top priority, minister says ”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-making-housing-fix-a-top-priority-minister-says/article31924658/

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Oracle

Haven’t you learned by now? Proof is in policy. Not MSM media story headlined.

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Oracle

Grow up and quit using my name. Loser.

Admin: can you ban that IP above. Impersonating me on a regular basis.

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franko

“Ottawa making housing fix a top priority”
Deporting McCallum to China might be a good start.

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chilled

You beat me to it!

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Best place on meth

“One announcement expected soon will involve the details of a pledge to provide federal financing to build new affordable rental housing.

Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson has proposed to offer $250-million worth of city-owned property for affordable housing if Ottawa helps pay for the construction.

That type of proposal is receiving a positive response from Ottawa. Mr. Duclos said Metro Vancouver leaders are “very willing and able” to provide property and partial financing for affordable housing.”

That’s the correct way to go, rather than the Krusty method of trying to get more people to buy real estate or Developer Dave’s stupid ideas that we need to build more condos.

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Newcomer

Couldn’t agree more. It addresses the issue head on, and it reduces demand in the private market.

I personally would like to see more co-ops on leased land but all kinds building on land leased from the city would be welcome. Leasing makes sense from a long-term planning perspective and is also less prone to attracting speculation.

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Madashell

“As of last year, fully a third of all the mortgages that were taken out in Vancouver were in the heavily indebted category, The provincial capital region was not far behind.”
BoC in report several months ago

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bullwhip29

StatsCan head quits, cites loss of independence
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/statscan-head-quits-cites-loss-of-independence-1.3075518

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UBC in Crisis Mode

Lucky guy as this is Canada.
President Xi of China put his Statistics Chief in prison.

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

That’s an extemely important story but the article is so short.

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chilled

Stats Can is having federal Liberals pass legislation this fall that would make a third world dictator blush. As to be expected, the moronic Canadian is unlikely to bat an eye.

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chilled

Again, why I am always hyping about the “stupid Canadian.” These maggots are still trying to get me to do my census. How many of you VanRE frustrated have obediently done yours? What relation does this have to VanRE you probably ask? Well, a federal organization that has blatantly and erroneously claimed an inflation rate around 1% for the last decade has helped fuel the fire. This intentional false information has suppressed wage increases, kept the prime rate down and has served our masters driving the Ponzi scheme well. GROW A SET children, refuse the god-damn census and tell Stats Can to go f*** themselves.

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tim

There’s a sale on tinfoil at walmart. Run and get some more, quick before THEY ban it!

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chilled

I can help your stupidity if your believe the inflation numbers Stats Can has been reporting the last decade are even close to accurate. That’s for proving my point, other stupid Canadian.

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chilled

can’t

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Oracle

Had to understate immigration numbers and was told not to count foreign students, TFWs, 10 year visitor holders, and Supervisa parents.

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just me

Just in the news:
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/new-zealand-extends-anti-money-laundering-rules-to-capture-property-agents

How long before maple leafs governments (Provincial? Federal?) become serious about not accepting dirty money from China? It may be good for the economy (and the provincial budget) but it erodes the very foundations of our civil society.

Christy and co. are basically saying: hey guys, money (dirty or clean) is good for the economy! Just embrace it!

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Billybonger

Listings pileup is not dramatic at this point.

Suspect the great majority of regular folks have no clue what is going on/undercurrents as of yet.

The sign I’m looking for is a listings Avalanche.

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Newcomer

The biggest factor here is probably the ’08 dip. I’ve had many people tell me that they’ve seen this one before and they know how it ends. I’ve also been told stories of people who sold in ’11, thinking the top was in. If you accept the basic narrative that prices are supported (by foreigns students, temporary workers, Chinese embezzlers, wealth transferring boomers, or whatever) then you would be a moron to sell in what looks like yet another dip. The avalanche won’t start until the fundamental story changes to “people in Vancouver are the greatest fools on the planet.” And that could take some time.

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Boombust

“This time is different” BECAUSE, the BoC rates will probably not go much lower, the CMHC has been more or less maxed out, the banks are starting to get “edgy”, debt loads are 175% of incomes, the home ownership rate is at an all-time high and, after the parabolic price rise we saw in the Spring (which in many peoples’ opinions signals a “blow off top”) …and the overall psychology has begun to change.

2008 was a head fake. There was MUCH more upside back then due to Harper and Flaherty goosing the markets to create a “Kanadian Kondo Ekonomy” through 0% down payments and 40 year amortizations. So, in other words, the market’s main drivers are out of bullets.

And, most importantly of all, ALL BUBBLES eventually pop!

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Newcomer

Well, duh.

But the average punter will never understand any of that. We won’t see a rush to the exists until they think, “Real estate is really risky. You can get burned bad,” which is about as sophisticated as their analysis will ever be. It’s hard to say when that will happen. Probably not this weekend.

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Boombust

Recent surveys are pointing to quite a shift in buyer thinking…and it’s not “Good News” for the RE industry, either.

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bullwhip29

there are two key reasons why this isnt happening in a big way… one, volumes generally dry up into the fall/winter and two, HAM (esp of the questionable variety) that is currently entrenched in this market has no real need to hit the panic button and sell. it’s all monopoly money to them anyway

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Newcomer

Are you arguing that rich people holding is stopping ordinary people from selling? What kind of mechanism would bring that about?

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bullwhip29

no, but if HAM isnt selling what they’ve already got (and are still infact buying to some degree) then all out crash ain’t happening. as i said previously, the ones who will get hurt the most will be those at the bottom of the totem pole. in US post 2008/09 the rich ended up capitalising on the little guy’s inability to stay afloat. now uber wealthy own everything including most residential. lots of average folks now rent from hedge fund or even financial inst that foreclosed on them.

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Newcomer

But HAM holds a tiny fraction of the total stock. They can influence by buying or by selling because they would be marginal buyers or sellers, but they cannot influence by holding. It’s a fundamental rule or markets that non-participants in the market do not influence prices.

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Combat roach

As everyone holds longer, the trots will explode stronger later.

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Multi_Culti

Watch this video and ask yourself if this is not very soon a reality for the GVA.
When will our crooked politicians be held accountable for the only thing they
live for now a days which is a cash grab.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtB05w-qvX8

The YouTube link is written in Polish but the lady doing the presentation is a
Canadian probably of Polish descent. Well integrated in our Canadian values.
Not a sell out like Christy!

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bullwhip29

Britannia Secondary school taken off closure list
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/britannia-secondary-school-taken-off-closure-list-1.3765049

>>> vsb wouldnt even be in this predicament if catchment boundaries were closed. name brand west side schools overflowing with students that dont even live in these neighborhoods and in some cases account for half of student population. in the case of brittania, this is nothing but good PR and spin.

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bullwhip29

or maybe it is as simple as the RE developers viewing this particular land parcel as unsuitable in many respects

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bullwhip29

Real estate market boosts B.C. budget surplus to $1.9B
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/real-estate-market-boosts-b-c-budget-surplus-to-1-9b-1.3074440

“We’re in this position, the envy of the country really, because we’ve taken a balanced approach and haven’t gone on spending sprees,” de Jong said.

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patriotz

He’s just offloaded the spending spree to indebted consumers, with his government taking a healthy commission.

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Best place on meth

“De Jong said the government will use $500 million from the property tax windfall to announce measures next week to help with housing affordability.”

This money better be going towards building public housing and not more idiotic schemes to “help” people buy into the real estate market.

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patriotz

“This money better be going towards building public housing ”

Yeah right. Looks to me like Christy is worried that her tax might be a bit too effective and is preparing a barrage of measures to get people buying again.

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bullwhip29

all she would need to do is give a wink and a nod to select RE bigwigs like rennie that the spigots will be turned back on in the spring. obviously it is too early to do such a thing, but watch out in march/april when volumes normally pickup thereby giving insider buyers the perfect cover to clean up all the low hanging fruit without anyone really questioning why all of a sudden activity is picking up. assuming she can keep beating the ndp to the punch policy wise (or at least promise she will), she should win the election hands down.

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Newcomer

All the “help” with housing affordability to date is exactly what made housing unaffordable.

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bullwhip29

Landlord opens up Vancouver rental home to bidding war
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/landlord-opens-up-vancouver-rental-home-to-bidding-war-1.3074649

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Newcomer

So other landlords are asking 3600, and the highest bid he got was 2300. Good think he opened it up to bids instead of pricing it based on what other were asking. He could save himself a lot of downtime. I’ve always thought bidding on rentals makes sense.

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Combat roach

Other landlords are asking 3600… but what are they getting?

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bullwhip29

B.C. residents ordered to cease unlicensed real estate services, as company’s bank account frozen
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/b-c-residents-ordered-to-cease-unlicensed-real-estate-services-as-companys-bank-account-frozen

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Best place on meth

God, it’s like playing whack-a-mole with these vermin.

Fines won’t stop them, only serious jail time will.

And seriously, stop admitting this garbage into our country.

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Combat roach

“…operators Feng “Fanny” Ni and Xiao Wen “Wendy” Ye to immediately cease providing unlicensed real estate services…”

Why do they always have to have nicknames like hookers or strippers? I find that very odd if not sick.

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bullwhip29

Couple claim they were told to fake assets to buy Richmond home Joanne Lee-Young Published on: September 15, 2016 | Last Updated: September 15, 2016 7:53 PM PDT http://vancouversun.com/business/mortgages/couple-claim-they-were-told-to-fake-assets-to-buy-richmond-home The prospective buyers of a $2.46 million Richmond home put down a $120,000 deposit. When they were turned down at three major national banks for financing to complete the deal, an employee at RBC Royal Bank of Canada and a real estate agent at Richmond-based Metro Edge Realty advised them to exaggerate and/or fake assets in China in order to qualify for a mortgage here, according to a notice of civil claim filed in B.C. Supreme Court. None of the allegations in the claim have been proven in court. Yan Zhao and Wei Na Hao, who currently live in Richmond and are originally from China, claim in court filings that they… Read more »

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No Money Down

“but when the deal fell through they were unable to get back their ($120,000) deposit because the offer was subject-free.”

Subject-free is for closers!

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Superfly

Ha Ha good one, very clever!

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bullwhip29

more fabricated feel good BS posted in the Vanc Sun (note footnote at very end of “story”)

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/accidental-millionaires-vancouver-homeowners-face-prospect-of-sudden-wealth-as-real-estate-values-surge

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Newcomer

As you point out, it is just an infomercial, but it is interesting that it is an infomercial urging people to sell. I don’t see it as bullish.

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bullwhip29

the message i got from this what that there could be hiccups associated with being an “accidental millionaire”. not sure why the couple they describe would have a capital gain on their principal residence, however

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Coincidence

Interested in hearing thoughts on this:
In 2012, Vancouver prices were correcting/stalling and then went stratospheric, fueled in part by unverified and illicit (given China’s rules) cash from China leveraged by Canadian banks.
In 2012, Vancouver was introduced to “A killer high” of fentanyl, manufactured in China and easily shipped overseas in the mail. Deaths from fentanyl, like housing prices, have since gone stratospheric
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/a-killer-high-how-canada-got-addicted-tofentanyl/article29570025/
Coincidence

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HAMster

The way I see it, we have had two phases to this real estate bubble. The first was more or less home grown between 2002-2012 (with the dip in 08-09) caused by lax lending, low rates, longer mtg terms etc. and then the second and biggest run-up was 2013-2016 from the Chinese. Now that they are (hopefully) no longer a factor I see prices dropping back to first phase bubble levels of 2012 quite quickly, and then a slower more measured drop down from there.

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Boombust

I think the drop will be more much more rapid and severe than most people suspect.

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Best place on meth

China is getting their revenge for the Opium Wars.

They’re all about revenge, no matter how long ago they were wronged.

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tim

Remember the USSR plan to nuke China, that the USA stopped? It was re-confirmed as recently as 2010 in a major Chinese newspaper by an academic there. Given there tight media control, it was taken as a clear “we remember this.” So I’d take it as more general than “revenge”: China as a nation has a very long memory, both positive and negative.

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HAMster

Goodbye Vancouver: Foreign buyers now flooding Seattle and Toronto real estate markets.
http://globalnews.ca/news/2943992/goodbye-vancouver-foreign-buyers-now-flooding-seattle-and-toronto-real-estate-markets/

The proportion of foreign buyers on the Westside was as high as 25 per cent,

He now says his wife has an American client who wants to sell his downtown penthouse because “he doesn’t feel welcome.”
“He brought a tech company up here from Silicon Valley… and moved a bunch of employees up here, and he’s basically saying that he’s out of here. He wants to sell his penthouse and likely move his business back down south.”

Uh huh. That certainly sounds like a rational decision to me…

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Combat roach

Lol… Realtor’s bullshit, those guys are hilarious.

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HAMster

Here is another line from that article:
“Foreign buyers are pissed off right now.”

LOL. Good!!!

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Best place on meth

Local taxpayers are far more pissed off.

Foreign buyers can eat shit.

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Newcomer

In classic bubble popping style, we are getting the mortgage fraud stories now. A little early, I would have thought, but I guess there was a lot of pent-up demand for tales of woe. http://vancouversun.com/business/mortgages/couple-claim-they-were-told-to-fake-assets-to-buy-richmond-home

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Combat roach

What else to expect from masters of deception? However they are as always innocent. Perhaps language was barrier, they didn’t understand well?

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HAMster

Lie, cheat and steal. Business as usual with them…

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Best place on meth

Fraudulent buyers: Yan Zhao and Wei Na Hao

Fraudulent realtor: Wendy Yang (formerly of New Coast Realty)

Fraudulent banker: Mr. Sun

Ok, what is the common denominator here?

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Combat roach

They all don’t speak English. Communication problem or they might be accustomed to different business culture?

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chilled

I’ll take “Name 4 bad BMW drivers” for $500 Alec!!

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Combat roach

Banks Didn’t Expect Vancouver Housing To Fall As Much As It Has

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/09/15/vancouver-average-home-price-banks_n_12034358.html

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Combat roach

Itchy situation, Manitoba wonders…

“What Is Ahead For Canadian Housing Market Boom Or Bust”

http://mytoba.ca/life/home-garden/ahead-canadian-housing-market-boom-bust/

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AirBNB

It is quite evident looking at the new listings particularly houses, that they are old farts cashing out, trying to unload 70’s décor for top dollar…..crickets…. price drops a coming

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Slava

Vancouver Boomers who started this mess 20 years ago selling to investors from Hong Kong and Taiwan and now mainland China.
They are trying to cash out, I hope they choke.

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southseacompany

“TRUMP AND THE TRUTH: THE INTEREST-RATE FLIP-FLOP”, The New Yorker

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/trump-and-the-truth-the-interest-rate-flip-flop

“Donald Trump has by turns praised and vilified the Fed chair, Janet Yellen, and the Fed’s interest-rate policies, never acknowledging when he says precisely the opposite of what he has previously said.”

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southseacompany

“Home sales eclipse resources as B.C.’s top source of revenue”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/hot-real-estate-market-lifts-bc-budget-into-billions/article31901625/

“British Columbia will haul in more tax revenue from the sale of homes this year than its combined revenues from the province’s historical economic foundation of mining, energy, forestry, Crown land tenures and natural gas.”

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southseacompany

“Canada’s household debt is now bigger than its GDP, for the first time”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-household-debt-is-now-bigger-than-its-gdp-for-the-first-time

“For the first time, the level of debt held by Canadians has exceeded the country’s gross domestic product as the red ink spilled over in the second quarter to 100.5 per cent of GDP, up from 98.7 per cent during the previous three-month period.”

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Best place on meth

Wooo hoooo!

Go Canadebt!

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Combat roach

Optimism rules…

“Canadians increasingly unwilling to buy homes amid fears that the ‘bubble might just burst'”

http://www.bnn.ca/canadians-increasingly-unwilling-to-buy-homes-amid-fears-that-the-bubble-might-just-burst-survey-1.567429

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paulb

New
175
Sold
125
TI:9759

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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rockerguy

New chart: Average Weekly Inventory. Shows the average inventory on a weekly basis rather than monthly, to provide a little more granularity of recent movements.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dYtxpv5aEMF-Ccyyb8sKmtHI4nQL8rqP4vEVxMx4VUc/pubchart?oid=1964361805&format=interactive

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rockerguy

As you can see, there is usually a bump in early September, presumably as people get back from holiday and list their homes. Now what we want to see is whether the bump carries on, or if listings fall off in the remainder of the year as per usual.

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Grim

Thanks for sharing. Judging by the trajectory, it is breaking the normal yearly cycle of peaking by week 25. It indeed will be interesting to see if these numbers keep increasing. So far 2016, while still low in inventory, is not exhibiting bullish behavior for mid term and beyond.

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Combat roach

Lots of questions…
Concerns regarding money laundering related to terrorism? What kind of terrorism? Are Mao’s henchmen and followers classified as terrorists? Who is hiding and why? Who is falsifying passports? What’s really happening?

http://www.worldfuturefund.org/wffmaster/Reading/Quotes/maoterror.htm

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