Paul Boenisch has been posting daily market updates here consistently for years. This gives us an interesting day by day view of the market.
Autumn means more listings, so far sales have to catch up.
Yesterday Pauls numbers show 307 new listings and 68 sold with a total inventory of 9728.
[…] Here’s some info from their comment yesterday: […]
Hi, can’t access the comments as the title overlaps…
re vacancy tax…
https://www.incomeinvestors.com/housing-bubble-vancouver-10800-empty-properties/4790/
>>> bottomline is that Mrs “I BUY THREE”, her husband and all the other 1000’s of presale condo buyers are up $hit creek starting in 2017 (esp if mayor moonbeam drops the axe on airbnb). landlords will be forced to lower rents to compete with a whack of new supply or try to sell (what is the most widely available + least desireable RE) in a market that has gone comatose.
How to stop money laundering within the real estate market
http://www.news1130.com/2016/09/15/how-to-stop-money-laundering-within-the-real-estate-market/
Very interesting and must read IMHO…
FATF Anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing measures
http://www.fatf-gafi.org/media/fatf/documents/reports/mer4/MER-Canada-2016.pdf
>>> some highlighted nuggets on pg 16 (part 52 + footnote 10) and how about pg 112 (part 310)
enjoy, everyone…
Canada given lukewarm grade on anti-money laundering efforts
I Owe, I Owe, it’s off to work I go…
Impact of housing on the economy.
1 – The institution I work for is looking for 12 IT staff. Hiring has been harder every year. The shortage is becoming a real issue. We are reaching a point where the institution can hardly function.
2 – My cousin works for a medical institution which activity relies on the use of a very expansive scan. The scan requires three staff to operate. They all announced they are relocating and it will be extremely hard to recruit because of the housing market.
Do not tell me that foreign money is good for the local economy!
Regular folk are definitely leaving Vancouver and fleeing to places like Victoria and Kelowna. I’ve seen a lot of anecdotes and the data shows it.
It will be interesting to see what the Millenials do over the next five years. I think the people who stay to make a career here are people that can piggy back off mommy and daddy one way or another. An independent person can’t reasonably do it on their own.
While I expect a correction, I don’t think it will be deep enough to really make a difference. That’s why I think people need to draw a line in their head and stick to it. If a 15 or 20% correction isn’t enough, then best to have plans to leave and follow through on it.
many average families already priced out of victoria where $1M+ listings are commonplace now
Houses are grossly overvalued essentially everywhere in Canada. A house in Winnipeg costs triple what it does in 2000. You can’t just move and escape the problem. It’s not a local problem. It’s a national problem (specifically, a debt problem). We just notice it more because houses here were more expensive to start with.
I would still rather live 45mins out of vic than 45mins out of Vancouver.https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17320924/1030-Skylar-Cir-Shawnigan-Lake-British-Columbia-V0R2W3
You would pay 345K for a cheaply built house in a village in the bush without a public school, supermarket or reliable drinking water?
Very lazy example I agree. Public schools there are many bus to school. here is another example walking distance to school. 26 mins out of Victoria.https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17339794/3277-Happy-Valley-Rd-Victoria-British-Columbia-V9C2W3
agreed and 45 min driving in vanc might not get you very far either depending on day. comparable pricewise is chilliwack and beyond which isnt doable if you have to commute back and forth
Actually I am glad..maybe shadenfreude. I am glad that the young are finally seeing there is no future in Vancouver/surrounds and jumping ship to where leaders at least have a 1/2 brain. This place gets what it deserves, and probably deserves more punishment. As far as I am concerned, let it implode.
However, knowing how corrupt things have gone, the truth will not be shown in the media, it will be the usual song and dance until people vote intelligently, but greed has been taking 1st seat, demonstrated by how bc. has been voting.
And no, I am not holding my breath for any meaningful correction, don’t waste your time young folks, your time, energy, intelligence is valuable.
Young people who leave will also gain a new perspective on the world. Metro Vancouver has a narcissistic, myopic groupthink thing going on. A little distance will probably make them wiser, better people.
I was away from Vancouver for 15 years and I think it was good for me. I wish I was still young enough to do it again with such ease.
I agree. Vancouver is very narcissistic and myopic. Our local politicians behind closed doors have been drinking that koolaid. They truly believe that all the foreign money and people coming here are doing it because they like our values and the lifestyle of the City. Anybody paying attention knows that couldn’t be further from the truth. The money comes here because it’s easy to do and because we’re viewed as a safe place. The closest HAM gets to the wildness is walking around Whistler village fully geared out in Arc’teryx clothing. For people who can’t leave the City to experience what you did, for a thought experiment, try turning off all local and Canadian media for a month. No papers, radio, TV. VCI is OK, but nothing else. I guarantee your perspective changes. I’m almost a year into it myself.
more like the $1000 Cda Goose parkas they hoard which are “essential” in this neck of the woods and must have for those cold rainy days walking from the mercedes to the mall entrance
It cracks me up though. I have heard politicians and bureaucrats give the ‘best place on earth’ speech so many times and how Vancouver attracts people from all over the World for our lifestyle. It’s so laughable if you are into that lifestyle. 90% of this City isn’t into it and the immigrants who are are typically Europeans like Brits and Germans. But they are a small minority compared to HAM, which you don’t see walking around in the bush or buying stuff at MEC. Ya, you’ll find them buying Goose parkas and expensive outdoor clothing, but it’s not used for any type of lifestyle other than shopping in Whistler. And those people who say these things are lying, they’re just deluded. HAM doesn’t come to Vancouver because you built a bike lane downtown or shut the bridge down for… Read more »
My place of work cannot find people also. I need three more on my team and I am being conservative. We worked last weekend to keep up with the workload we are working again this weekend. Not sure if that’s to due with RE.
“Should Canadians be concerned about high housing prices?”, BNN video
“Canadians are becoming increasingly worried about the real estate market, according to a new Manulife survey that found that 73 per cent of respondents believe home ownership is unaffordable. CTV’s Chief Financial Commentator Pattie Lovett-Reid has more.”
Thanks Paul for all of your updates
This would be a good joke if it isn’t cruel reality…
“Together, we will build on the progress made during my visit to China, deepening understanding between our two countries, and working on growing our economies and strengthening the middle class.”
Strengthening the middle class… Whose middle class, Canadian? Is he serious, out to lunch? How this even could be said, let alone thought? Shameless…
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/09/14/li-keqiang-justin-trudeau-canada-china_n_12010110.html
Turdeau is giving legitimacy to a bunch of vicious gangsters by befriending them.
His communist father’s legacy will kill this country.
Maybe it’s all show and he’s just being nice to them out of kindness but does not really intend to sell all of Vancouver to them and without recouping anything in taxes.
New
207
Sold
127
TI:9766
Thanks for that VCI! Very welcome. I’ve met many great people from this blog looking to buy and sell real estate over the years. Many are now friends. It’s a great community here on VCI and it’s always a pleasure talking real estate with this well informed bunch of people.
When the slump/crash/fiasco is over, you’ll be sure to ham my business, Paul!
Your autocorrect has a very on topic sense of humour.
It’s all about pork barrel politics isn’t it? Just ask Christ.
..er, Christy.
Chrispy Pork n ham
Mustard you point this out?
I relish the thought.
This place is hardcore bearish. Your best interests career-wise are for a bullish market. Why do you like it here? Different perspective from work? Or are you a self-hating type?
No, your best interests are served by growth in productivity and efficient allocation of resources. Seeing a bubble as good for one’s career is like seeing cocaine as good for one’s career — kind of true in the short term.
But people can have a bearish or bullish outlook that is not tied to personal gain. It can be about what seems likely, rather than what is desirable.
who are you speaking to, Lurker?
Eby is absolutely everywhere these days. Every time I turn on the radio or TV new, he’s there.
If the NDP win in May, it will be because of him and the work he does.
Horgan on the other hand, I’m not even sure he’s still alive.
Horgan is everywhere too; he’s busy attending Lacrosse games on the island, promising to kill Site C half way through completion, meeting with his harem of social justice warriors forming policy on female circumcision in TogoLand and everything else necessary to ‘save the world.’ Thus the big *IF* they win in May.
The guy has no “sparkle”. The NDP needs another Dave Barrett- type
Eby is the first NDPer I have liked. How can one guy, Eby, be so good and you hear nothing of value from the rest. Eby points out the problems and suggests common sense solutions not just a bunch of complaining. Future Premier. Too bad it won’t be this election.
Because housing is the big issue in Vancouver and he’s the NDP housing critic. BC is bigger than Vancouver you know.
10k party celebration soon;)
I remember our 20k party. Don’t get too giddy just yet 😉
Giddy up, im seeing houses sell for 15% off list and its just starting to unfold!
High end (2M+) is definitely taking a beating.
Just watched an Airbnb Vancouver promotion add.
Do we tax Airbnb incomes?
This is going to heat up, big time.
Wonder if Oracles new house will be an Airbnb hot spot?
Moonbeam will be unveiling policies regarding Airbnb regulation by the end of the year.
Operators will likely have to apply for a business licence, the number to be displayed on their advertisement.
Fingers crossed.
CoV will force AirBnB to comply how?
Same way as any other municipality or other jurisdiction has.
Airbnb is advertising on news1130 too, not a “use us” advertisement but one trying to garner support for why it is good for Vancouver.
Paying tax on one’s Airbnb is a voluntary thing. Even though it should be considered running a business IMO.
I wasn’t aware paying income tax on income is now voluntary in Canada. Thanks for clearing that up for me!!
Enough already.
Man O Man
Lots of msm pounding on this now.
Will the great unwashed get frightened? Or are we still too early in the trend?
I, for one, think Oracle’s bold prediction of 7,000 listings (originally for sept month end but now recalibrate a to year end) will not come to pass.
This could be the big mamma move.
“Spaces with no places: Residential land sits empty across the region”, The Province
http://theprovince.com/business/real-estate/spaces-with-no-places-residential-land-sits-empty-across-the-region
“Municipalities insist they are hung up on a way to boost the supply of affordable housing, in part, because Metro Vancouver is so hemmed in by water, mountains and land designated for agricultural use.”
“And yet, there are countless other little bits and wider swaths of land across the region zoned for residential use, or even commercial, that could be developed into multi-family home projects”
” They aren’t restricted by the Agricultural Land Reserve, but sit undeveloped with no concrete plan for the immediate future.”
David Eby:
We know an NDP gov will not have control over immigration. However, would it be possible to put the following policy in place:
“A public or private post secondary institution in BC must not have more than 10% of its students as foreign students”
–> this alone would cut prices by 20%
Foreign Students are the new Immigrant Investor Programs.
How many years till people on this blog “get it”. Even David Eby is ahead of you guys.
Again, limit one house per permanent resident family.
Tax citizens of 2nd homes a 2%-10% tax like the vacancy tax.
Problem solved.
Vacancy tax enforcement, just use the process as CoV parking tickets and problem solved! How many people has ever won a parking ticket dispute against the city?
That’s a great idea.
Just have a city enforcement officer pull up to the house, slap a yellow ticket on the front window and wait for the cash to roll in.
Student flipped Point Grey property for $1.16-million profit, research for NDP critic David Eby shows Derrick Penner Published on: September 14, 2016 | Last Updated: September 14, 2016 2:33 PM PDT http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/student-flipped-point-grey-property-for-1-16-million-profit-research-for-ndp-critic-david-eby-shows A homebuyer identified as a student in property documents bought a Point Grey property in April of 2015 for $7.19 million to sell it just a year later for $8.35 million, booking a $1.16-million profit, which NDP housing critic David Eby says is further evidence of speculation driving rapid inflation in Metro Vancouver’s housing market. Eby said caucus researchers came across the case in follow up to its work looking at who was buying and selling homes in Point Grey, which showed a high proportion were purchased by students and homemakers, many with Chinese names. And, according to Eby, the issue of where the money for the purchases… Read more »
What if the students and housewives are local trust fund babies with tons of $$$? Would that be OK with Eby then?
I guess NDP just don’t like people who are born or marry rich?
There are money laundering and corruption issues. Solve those first. Rich foreign students buying houses? That problem will always be there as long as you have an open market. You can close the market but is that the best way to go?
hello, he for sure doesn’t pay any capital gain on the one fortieth residency, at the same time working people are taxed to the yang ying.
pretty soon, only suckers pay taxes in this town, and didn’t know about it until as of late.
That’s the issue with tax system where working income & interest are heavily taxed, while if you are born and sit on your butt collecting dividends, you don’t pay nearly as much tax. how is fair that actual work income is taxed way more heavily than dividend income which requires no work?
Why do we have foreign students? We don’t need them.
Or limit them to 5-10% of total school enrolment.
Because we have no economy. We have two sectors, education and real estate that bring in money.
Also gives Lib gov’t excuse to cut higher education, and soon K-12 education funding.
Money from inheritance, trust funds or marriage is no more legitimate than stolen money. It should be taxed into oblivion. Showing off wealth you didn’t earn is obscene.
Inheritance tax is immoral.
I’m pretty sure you don’t know how to argue for a conclusion like that.
No need to, Trump is doing it for him.
“American workers have paid taxes their whole life, they shouldn’t be taxed again when they die,” Trump said Monday. What Trump calls the “death tax,” and what is more widely known as the “estate tax,” is worth an estimated $25 billion a year. Doing away with it would only benefit the children of the very wealthy (for individuals, the first $5.45 million are exempt; for couples, the first $10.9 million) — like Donald Jr., Eric, Ivanka, Tiffany and Barron.
Uh huh. Please explain.
So you don’t believe parents have the right to pass on their assets to their kids?
I think at least 50% should be taxed away, going up to 90% for large amounts. Society will steadily get more unequal over time otherwise, until an ugly crisis occurs. Capital gains loopholes also need to be plugged. #1 in real estate.
It won’t always be there. It is not usually there. Rich foreign students should not be buying houses. They should be studying. I’ve lived lots of places where it is not a problem. Foreign students who are real students don’t throw money around.
Why can’t they study and live and sleep in a nice mansion if their parents got the $$ to pay for it? Just because you are born to poor parents that can’t afford it, everyone else must also suffer? Seems pretty old style cmmunist to me.
Fallacy of the excluded middle.
Thers nothing wrong with earned wealth. But unearned, inherited wealth does corrosive, shitty things to society, both short and long term. Even Adam Smith thought inheritance taxes were justified and important.
Another model is for the wealthy parents to materially support the child till he reaches the age of majority, say 18 or 19 or maybe 20, and then for the young adult to make his own way in the world as an independent person, fighting his own battles and learning his own lessons. What Space describes is the factory for generating spoiled brat adults. What kind of leaders, or co-workers do they end up to be?
Mainlander culture is broken, due to the cultural revolution. Even more than Russia. It’s either Maoism or gangster-capitalism. It’s like the communists demonized capitalism and it’s worst class structure bullshit, so when the people tried it, they thought “ok, we’re capitalists now” and actually became the fever dream top hatted assholes they’d been taught that meant.
In societies with more memory, the upper classes instinctively know to limit their worst excesses. They have an gut memory of the guillotine.
Sure… but my issue comes when their parents pay for it but avoid taxes by putting it in the students name.
David Eby: Nine students own $57M worth of Vancouver property
http://www.news1130.com/2016/09/14/nine-students-own-57m-worth-of-vancouver-property/
Eby is on CKNW at 4:00 to discuss this.
If the $$ is not legit then why is the gov’t allowing it? Fix that problem and you don’t need to worry about kids owning multi-million homes.
If the $$ is legit then that means Eby hates rich people cuz they shouldn’t have the right to spend their own $$ however they want?
We are all fucked up by those locust motherfuckers who would stop at nothing. Sooner or later something will have to break. Such destructive shit is flagrant.
get some condom and lube and back over. I think we are f like there is no tomorrow. The Banks, the CRA, the Provincial and federal, CMHC, RCMP all together join force to f us.
Only thing can save Canadians is lube and condoms. Ask these 2 items to be GST free.
And people complain about my pic posts…geez… just get a fing room you too.
Fucked up by politicians and bureaucrats at Immigration Canada.
Until Immigration is cut in half this fiasco will continue.
This is going to create a trump in this country and a restless populace.
Future penny stock? Glad I sold but I’ll miss the 7% dividend.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=FIE-T
U.S. shocked by China’s “undue influence” in major ally’s politics
So, which of our politicians are having their strings pulled by by these totalitarian shitbags?
Oh, hi Christy!
China figured this out well.
China had a great teacher to learn from.
But when US does it, it is called bringing democracy? Like Libya and Syria? Ukraine? Iraq. That must be why US is so popular around the world.
Have you shameless assholes ever thanked the US for liberating your country in WWII?
Nope, not once.
Look up why Nixon was invited to China, “pinball diplomacy”, leading to China becoming less hostile. It was a thank you after they found out that the USA told the USSR “no, we won’t just stand by while you nuke China. You can’t do that.”
Sorry, ping-pong. Ducking spellfucker.
Anyway, there was a point where the USSR was annoyed enough at China they actually asked permission to wipe them out.
China pisses everyone off, it’s what they do.
The US should have vaporized them during the Korean War.
Russians and their politeness…
Really? US fought in China against Japanese? Read some fing history.
Oh what am I talking..you are a thick headed moron….knowledge might actually harm you.
http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/USA-C-ChinaD/
Of course they don’t teach this in China because the US aided Chiang not Mao. Mao’s hero, Stalin, didn’t even declare war on Japan until a week before the war ended, and that was so he could grab some Japanese territory.
Almost as popular as China is in Asia.
hmmmm….
Duterte Turns Back On US, Orders Philippines To Buy Weapons From Russia And China
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-14/duterte-turns-back-us-orders-philippines-buy-weapons-russia-and-china
Thanks Paul. I’ve been on this site at least 7 years and always appreciate your posts.
Our real estate situation is just a mess and it desperately needs a complete overhaul but our PM just open the immigration door wide open to those that are abusing it.
I have been following this site for years and rarely post. I would like to throw in my thanks to Paul B for keeping us in the loop with all the numbers.
I would think the banks discriminating agaist locals based on nationality is a human rights issue and the banks may be in for some law suits. Hopefully a law firm takes this up and starts a class action by locals who have been turned down for mortgages in the past with damages being the amount RE went up.
I almost would help with volunteer work were someone to pursue such a case. I am so angry at the banks.