Capitulation time

Some people say there are three stages to a bubble: denial, concern and capitulation.  Have we reached the last stage yet?

This comment from YLTNboomerang:

I’m almost ready to call this bubble done, my evidence?…my historically poor timing! Family is getting flown down to TX next month for interviews and to check out RE/Lifestyle that Houston offers. If we finally pull the trigger and move South, even for tremendously more dough, I will post it and that will be the point that YVR becomes cheap cause as a bear since 2007 I can’t get this F*&$er timed right. BTW, I already stipulated a “Trump clause”, if through regime change foreign workers are kicked out, I get 3 years pay and no non-compete plus relocation costs.

Any one else hit the capitulation stage yet?

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
I always took capitulation to mean saying “screw-it-I’ll-buy”, but this definition – giving up on the region – definitely makes sense as well. By that measure, I have been half-capitulated for a few years now. I no longer need to work locally and my spouse continues to test the waters about other places (very in demand – not worried). At this point, our renting circumstances remain stable. We have not seen much evidence of upward pressure on rents in the detached market and we have a good set-up. For as long as that continues to be the case and we don’t see a ton of other people we care for leaving (though many have left over the last few years), we’ll comfortably make this work. We don’t want to leave and we earn enough to pay a lot of taxes,… Read more »
Nufio
Guest
Nufio

I left 2 years ago and my after tax income from 1 income was our after tax income from 2 incomes in Vancouver. Real estate is not the only reason to leave vancouver

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Minister begs for help to resist public “pushback” on immigration levels:
http://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=OGW1741&mobile=false

Taxpaying Canadians are getting pissed off with high immigration levels and fear for their jobs.
Government needs to do a better job of “explaining” (brainwashing) why Canada needs high immigration levels.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

At this point, the push on immigration is a blatant demonstration of a government weakness and its immigration minister being lost in time and space. It is a safe last resort for pretending of doing something related to economy and development while actually making things worse. At least public doesn’t appear irresponsible or stupid when pushing back on it.

chilled
Member
chilled

Santa McCallum isn’t lost is space, he’s just another champagne socialist overwhelmed by his guilt but will give *YOUR* house away as retribution, not his.

chilled
Member
chilled

Not only has Canada’s immigration policy become our ‘holy grail’ – beyond criticism and reproach, it has also become our economic rabbit hole. The costs of immigration can only be satisfied with more immigration!! FINE, but I wish they would stop pretending Canada is some type of ‘green’ leader when what we are doing is supporting the worlds population explosion and the environment degradation that goes with it. Canada’s immigration and refugee numbers should be capped about 100K per year and our fucking economy and lifestyles will be fine. Our foreign policies and aid should be directed to countries that seriously solutions to population control. Bains can go fuck himself, he most likely has no idea what this country was like before it got infiltrated. *NO* Canada doesn’t owe the world fuck-all!!

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Capitulation?
Vancouver home prices may have seen ‘final hurrah,’ Royal LePage says:
http://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=TGB0600

HAMster
Guest
HAMster
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

this is such a scammy rigged mkt, you watch tonights data out of china will now magically surprise to upside and those that went short today will get taken out to the woodshed. wouldnt be the least bit shocked if mtks close unchanged or green. insiders and robots rule the world of trading now. retail doesnt stand a chance. RE is slower moving, but really no different. someone else always knows beforehand where the puck will end up.

david
Guest
david

My biggest concern is that young, financially ignorant people, including almost every person under 30 years old, who outright dismiss the concept of even modest interest rates, will simply step in to the real estate market — with that horrifying self-confidence that characterizes their charmed millennial life —- and further delay the completion of what simply must occur.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Setting aside inter-generational sniping, isn’t their capacity to do what you’re describing objectively decreased at this stage? Or do you think present measures don’t go far enough to reel in their borrowing potential?

(Setting aside discussion of how much foreign money influences the market entirely for this point.)

david
Guest
david

One’s ‘borrowing potential’ in a completely irrational credit market has no use in measuring value or price paid.
And FYI, “borrowing potential’ is a ‘nouveau banker speak’ euphemism for selling more credit to utter fools.

Many Franks
Member
Active Member

Why blame twentysomethings for potential future sins when you’ve got great swathes of the population, mostly considerably older than that, already doing exactly what you’re worried about? It’s a huge stretch to pin any blame at all on millennials here.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/09/most-vulnerable-canadians-debt-shock_n_8511890.html

david
Guest
david

At least older people have seen high interest rates, and therefore accept that such a reality is within the realm of the possible.

That gives them a real leg up on the completely clueless.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Have you seen the raft of articles about baby boomer parents helping their kids get into the market?

david
Guest
david

It’s simply a sad predicament for many families who are driven to an action they regret even as they do it.

My view is that they are not doing it out of a complete lack of financial acumen, but other reasons.

Obviously, you think it is irrefutable evidence of nothing but.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
I think you’re ascribing a level of certainty to me that I don’t have. I just question the notion that the Millennials are somehow special in this. Some of them, raised to expect low rates forever, are deluded. Others I know are just resigned to over-paying and taking on what they know to be too much risk in order to stay in their hometown. I agree that it’s a sad state of affairs and completely agree that lots of people – of any age – are making buying decisions that aren’t entirely about having a lack of financial acumen. This longstanding mess has fostered fear of missing out on many levels (whether that’s fear of missing out on owning for yourself, fear of angering a spouse, placing a too-high premium on the stability of owning, or fear of missing out… Read more »
david
Guest
david

You presented the issue of boomer parents buying houses for their kids to refute my point about that generation being more inherently aware of the reality of interest rate risk. I responded to that, briefly but fully.

Don’t be a putz.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

Evidently I’m a putz who believes he obviously has irrefutable evidence of something and trades in ‘nouveau banker speak’ euphemisms.

Yikes.

david
Guest
david

I suggest we not converse anymore. It clearly upsets you and does absolutely nothing for me.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

David, if you’re looking for a putz-free zone, you’ve definitely come to the wrong place.

patriotz
Member

I think everyone who buys, and everyone who helps them buy, at least thinks they are not going to lose money on it. Clearly there are other motivations to buy but they are subject to this. So it’s always a financial decision above all else.

david
Guest
david

p: No one who buys a lottery ticket ever thinks its equivalent to putting a match to a dollar.

“Hope” is different from “think”.

Ulsterman
Member

David, I’ve noticed that the older people who lived through the 10-20% rates say, “The government would NEVER LET rate go that high again.” The believe that the BOC can just magically control the rate regardless of economic circumstances. So even though they may have seen high rates they don’t think they can ever get high again. Who knows, with the massive amounts of debt the world has taken on since 2008 maybe they’re right.

Kim
Guest
Kim

But sometimes, it’s out of their control. If the US ever gets its act together and raises rates, we will have to. Otherwise, the loonie will drop and everything will be expensive anyway. So you’re going to be either stuck paying high rates for mortgage or paying for that 20 dollar head of cauliflower along with every other necessity in life. Take your poison.

Ulsterman
Member

I realise this of course, but this is something i hear from people when i trot out one of my boring, “But what if/when rates eventually rise” yawn-fest bear arguments.

patriotz
Member

“So even though they may have seen high rates they don’t think they can ever get high again. ”

They don’t have to get high, they just have to get normal. The problem is so many people see today’s rates as normal.

The other threat that too many people are ignoring is that the Feds have clearly signaled that they would like to keep rates low for themselves, but not for homebuyers. Making lenders take on more risk means higher rates for borrowers – if you can get a mortgage in the first place.

david
Guest
david

patriotz: To young people this IS normal. Completely, permanently, and with certainty.

Which is how anyone could possibly take out a 30 year mortgage for every last cent they can barely (maybe even not) currently afford.

That’s the problem.

Many Franks
Member
Active Member

This generational labeling is overworked and you’re making up this “completely, permanently, and with certainty” stuff. I can generalize too: one much-touted characteristic of millennials is their lack of faith in the financial system, stemming from unprecedented tuition burdens, low-quality employment, housing costs, and ringside seats as the financial system shat itself in 2008.

Look at who’s been taking on those crushing mortgages in Vancouver on local wages and you won’t see many twentysomethings — even fewer without eager cosigners.

david
Guest
david

Many Franks: This is an internet message board. “Generalizing” is quite normal and common.

If you don’t like generalizing, and prefer discussing specific details and minutia, e-mail will be much more satisfying. for everyone.

david
Guest
david

Some people might say that. But I would neither suffer nor repeat such abject stupidity.

Ulsterman
Member

I wonder about this too. If prices drop 20% in a year, is there a significant number of frustrated wanna-be buyers who’ll be thinking that this is a great time to buy, or will they hold off hoping for lower prices?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Yes, People desire vancouver real estate. That’s what we’ve been trying you idiots for a decade.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

imho we are still somewhere between DENIAL and CONCERN but much of what has happened (and will happen going forward) is in the hands of the money changers who could lie, cheat, steal, manipulate to move their own agendas forward and whip the rug out from under us at any given moment. six months ago this market looked like it was going to infinity. today some say it is going completely bust. both of these scenarios are laughable. unfortunately many have been and will continue to get whipsawed around if they lean too far one way or the other.

patriotz
Member

According to the article linked below, which I think uses standard terminology, capitulation is actually one of the last stages of a bust. It means owners give up hoping for a price recovery in the near term.

http://ochousingnews.com/blog/psychological-stages-of-a-financial-bubble/

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

According to the graph, we are possibly at the “Bear Rally” point. I would expect lots of “denials” to take place in the close future unless another miracle reverses path on the way up. Anyhow, we’re collectively f*cuked.

lostandconfused
Guest
lostandconfused

does anyone here have any experience with simplewealth or money geek?
Rather invest my money than wait for this housing market to correct.

Newcomer-can\'t-post
Guest

The classic ways of analyzing bubble formation and bursting don’t factor in government intervention and they are likewise not made for a near-zero interest environment where people are desperate for any kind of return. I think we are in uncharted waters. If gravity starts working again it’s going to be very interesting.

patriotz
Member

“a near-zero interest environment where people are desperate for any kind of return”

This sounds as though people have big amounts of cash and are buying RE because the interest on cash is so bad. The reality of course is most buyers have very little cash and are buying RE because so much leverage is available and they “can’t lose”. Those who do have lots of cash are generally aware that RE is a bad investment in fundamental terms and they can get much better yield at reasonable risk in stocks. I mean Vancouver RE of course.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Well, yes and no. I have a lot of cash/liquid investments and it is certainly not doing well across the board in my equities. And I’m not the only one. Averaged out over many years it’s fine, but there are lots of pretty poor years in there too (last year being one of them for me). I know some people are getting a solid 5% but even that is not great, especially in an environment (YVR) where rents are up nearly 60% in the past 10 years.

Kim
Guest
Kim
For me, all I see in Vancouver RE is risk. There are other ways to play the immigrant card (according to Oracle) that are way less risky. All those immigrannts, for instance, will still need telecom services, so I buy RCI-B, Telus, BCE, etc with their dividends that increase yearly or in the case of Telus, every six months. Same with utilities, and REITs. Boring? Yes, but dependable for sure. The problem with RE is that you need to leverage to buy, which is essentially borrowing to invest. I can’t risk my family’s future on a couple assets in one city. Maybe I’m just an idiot, but I am super risk averse and in Vancouver RE, that’s all there is to me right now. Certainly to me, much riskier than dividend stocks. (And with the imminent rise in interest rates,… Read more »
tokyorealestateman
Guest

good comment Kim–I do own many properties that I have held since the 1990’s but I too am quite addicted to dividend paying stocks–I like DFN on the Toronto exchange–monthly dividend–with the low Canadian dollar it is a steal-I will continue to purchase this and others monthly-imho

I also make beautiful computers–please follow me at–
https://www.instagram.com/shibuyacraftronics/

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest

Bubble not bursting: new listing, a small lot asking for $4.38 million:
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=R2115295&REBoards=All&From=MLS

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Why so cheap?

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

Lets talk when it sells.

Newcomer-can\'t-post
Guest

Exactly, high listing prices mean nothing.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

small lot? 55 ft frontage

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

saying there is a mtn view from there is a stretch imho. nice area though…

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Capitulation? Not yet. I’d say in about 2 years. It’ll take that long to unravel the financial mayhem that many people will find themselves in.

We are still in the early stages of “denial”.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

agree. people suddenly realized things could get ugly very quickly in 2008. instead of doing the prudent thing over the past 8 yrs, many ended up even more over leveraged than they already were partly due to the fact that it seemed the govt would now have everyones back going forward and should any trouble spark up with the banks again, they would be there to bail them out in an instant. we are so far away from a true market that it is impossible to say what will happen…either frankenstein gong show continues in some shape or form OR epic meltdown that most will not see coming and have not prepared for.

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

None of the above. …we are well into the f@cked stage. ie seller’s waited ed too long most are heloced to the nuts. Party is over time to feel the pain

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

I agree with those who think the downturn will be choppy and take at least a couple of years.

Read Steve sattesky blog, signs of stress in the market are starting to percolate.

That said, early days imho, and new mortgage rules will pull sales forward so expect a bump in closings over coming weeks.

All that said, I think listings grow and do not plummet to Oracle’s predicted 7,000 by year end with flat prices.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

TORONTO – Finance Minister Bill Morneau says it’s “impossible to say with absolute clarity” what the impacts of new mortgage rules introduced by Ottawa earlier this month will be.
http://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=TB8452&mobile=false

In other words, lets try this and see what happens… I don’t have a lot of confidence anybody really knows what they are doing.

patriotz
Member

He’s just being honest. Nobody can predict markets with any certainty even without policy changes. All we can say with some certainty is that prices would be higher without these changes than with them.

Etremely Rich Chinese houses owner.
Guest
Etremely Rich Chinese houses owner.

When another 100 years?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Wishful thinking on their part; there has never been a housing bubble anywhere; especially one of this magnitude that has never ended in anything BUT a collapse.

However, I guess RBC has to say “something” in order to look somewhat credible going forward.

It looks like “cover your ass time” to me.

Ulsterman
Member

exactly, they haven’t got a clue, just like their analysts have no idea where any other markets are headed.

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

Happy 10k day

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

It’s a load of shit.

Houses obviously aren’t worth $1M. Incomes here don’t support it. The prices are speculation because people feel that it’s okay to pay X because someone else will pay X+1 later. So if that perception changes and prices cool, why would they only recede a little? If you no longer think it’s a brilliant investment then you’re just going to say fuck it and pay what it’s worth to live.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I agree, but I will also note that this was true in 2008 and in 2011. It may take years of significant declines to change the narrative.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
197
Price Change
67
Sold
99
TI:10,034

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Ulsterman
Member

I’d say we’re still in the blissful ignorance stage. Unlike the people reading this, most people don’t read about real estate, nor think about it. That’s the impression i get from my long term owner friends. I’ve talked to a few different people and not one of them knew about the impending changes to mortgage lending rules, the airbnb issue, the impending Vancouver homes tax, or the changes to the principle residence rules.

Maybe if prices really start to drop right through the Spring and Summer, and we see 20% or more headlines, then fear will set in.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Agreed. This was my point in an old post. Sentiment has not changed. Almost everyone still thinks the market has not changed from the spring. Almost everyone that has wanted to buy has already done so. We’re out of greater fools. Credit is tightening and there could be a tsunami of listing once the masses realize the music stopped.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well, there ARE three kinds of people: the ones who make it happen, the ones who watch it happen and the ones who say, “What happened?”

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

Hahahah the what happened were the same ones winning bidding wars.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“I’d say we’re still in the blissful ignorance stage.”

That ignorance is not going to last long. Both the media and RE industry pumpers have turned negative. I do not recall the RE industry ever predicting prices to decline.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Someone I know who has always been a firm believer in “prices always go up” has sold and is couch surfing waiting for another property to complete.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

RE industry is bleeding all over the front pages to get the government to moderate or reverse policy.

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

spring 2017 fear stage will begin mark my words. It will be the top story on every news cast in yvr just like it was on the way up.

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

After that the colapse will be under way. My prediction spring 2018 capitulation will materalize. Patience key , prepare for glory! -40% from peak 🙂

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

All hell will brake loose in Spring 2017, it’ll make Canucks riots look tame

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

Lol that was one night of destruction what is about to happen in yvr will compare to being locked up in guantanamo bay.

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Now that the tide has turned, aint nobody with half a brain gonna buy until prices revert back to 2014 ie 40% from peak, that’s best case, but don’t be shocked if we see a 50% drop from peak or more

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

Still in denial, no one has schitt their pants yet. When pants get soiled thats when capitulation begins. We are about 18 months out.

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

By pants getting soiled i mean no options left.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I don’t know what stage in the bubble this is but the pumpers clearly have changed their stage from denial to fear.

chief economist Helmut Pastrick of Vancouver-based Central 1 Credit Union predicts the reaction of the market across the country will be felt quickly with monthly sales declining for about six months, estimating a drop in sales of 10 to 20 per cent. He also forecasts that national housing prices could slip by five to 10 per cent

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/vancouver-home-prices-may-have-seen-final-hurrah-royal-lepage-1.3114177

10% decline in RE prices nationally by Spring next year. What does that mean for Vancouver?

Anyone see the change in sentiment for Helmut from 2 weeks ago?

Metro Vancouver house prices will more than double over the next 25 years, as supply continues to be tight and more people move to the region, a senior B.C. economist predicts.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-economist-says-price-of-metro-vancouver-houses-will-keep-climbing

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Not to mention Bob rennie,,, pimp pumper….he’s in hiding tail between his legs

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

Crooked Bob will survive, the speculators will be destroyed. We must make sure that the future generations dont fall for this corrupt cartel BS again.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Last we heard from him, he said expect housing shortages to continue. Let me know when he’s actually been proven wrong.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

That is a BIG change from “Crashproof Helmut”.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

BTW, “10% nationally” is a big wallop for Vancouver…

YVR
Guest
YVR

When the US bubble popped the bubbliest places like Vancouver went down more than double the national average. 10% nationally could be 25% in Vancouver. And we are already down close to 20%.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

We are not down close to 20%.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Just over 20% for SFD

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

This blogs become delusional. Prices not down.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

2256 W 16 just sold for 2.388… 6 months at 2.988 lowered to 2.898 then to 2.588. Finally sold at 2.388.

In the spring, 2568 west 16 sold for 3.1. Same size lot, same side of the street…

Yes, I agree, prices have NOT fallen….

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

10% nationally = 30-40% vancouver

Ulsterman
Member

Funny thing is, doubling in 25 years is only 2.8% per year compounded. Probably 0% when adjusted for inflation.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I just want to get to the carnage stage when the blood runs in the streets.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Slower growth or even reversal predicted for Greater Vancouver home prices”, CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-1.3803046

“Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said house prices in Greater Vancouver grew 30.6 per cent year-over-year in the third quarter of the year, marking what may have been the real estate market’s “final hurrah.”

“Soper said he expects that price growth in Vancouver will slow or even reverse in the months ahead as the effects of recent federal and provincial government rule changes begin to be felt.”

Some Guy
Guest
Some Guy

Per Teranet Index, Vancouver prices were up 2.9% month over month in May, 2.6% in June. 2.3% in July, 1.7% in August and 0.2% in September. And here comes Fred to tell us ‘he expects price growth to slow in the months ahead”. I’ll give him credit, so far he is very accurate in predicting the past.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Real estate I did try needs to paint a dire picture to avoid further action.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Thanks, Yoda.

Now I want all of you to turn off your auto-correct and never turn it back on again.

Try speaking English without the help of a machine for a change.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The mobile site is broken. It pegs the CPU and drains the battery. Probably one of the stupid “pop over” ads causing it. Even if you type correctly the lag triggers absurd autocorrections. It’s been like this for weeks.

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

Gamblers always mistake themselfs as investors. Time after time, it will be no different in yvr. The house always wins ( govt taxes and banks ).

Adult huggies
Guest
Adult huggies

By gamblers I mean taking on too much risk. 🙂

Just me
Guest
Just me

This is a great idea!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/13/properties-seized-assets-corrupt-cash-crackdown-criminal-finances-bill-tax-haven

Will any of our politicians use it forminspiration for Canada? Mr Eby, are you listening? This would be one of the most popular legislative initiatives of the last 20 years.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

All governments are going broke and are on the hunt for revenue and taxes of any kind, so this will come here eventually as these money laundering crooks are an easy target to shake down.

Once their homes are seized, it will be a pleasure to see them at the food bank again – this time for a valid reason and minus the Mercedes.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Brits can eventually pull it off but we are to much PC to do the right thing. Anyhow those fuckers should face the judgment day sooner or later.

patriotz
Member

BC’s civil forfeiture law gives the government all these powers already. The problem is not the law, but who they are choosing to go after.

http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/crime-prevention/civil-forfeiture-office/civil-forfeiture

Just me
Guest
Just me

So, once again, it is about political input: our corrupt/incompetent politicians and giverment bureaucrats chhose not to use these powers? Is it going to change if we agree on some kind of quasi-extradition areangement with the PRC?

Christy clark should be going after these criminals like a hound, instead of spending time fundraising with developers. Useless wpman that she is.

Just me
Guest
Just me

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-real-estate-china-1.3803445

Chinese buyers look beyond Vancouver to Montreal’s real estate market

patriotz
Member

The source? Well you don’t even have to ask:

An increasing number of Chinese buyers are showing an interest in Montreal, drawn by the relatively affordable housing market compared to Toronto and Vancouver, real estate agents say.

Just me
Guest
Just me

As much as I dislike agents, they have been more correct than you have for the past 10 years. Also about busloads of Chinese buyers.

wpDiscuz