What day is it?
Friday!
That means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all, our regulag end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.
-unfortunately lazy admin didn’t get to the links..
But what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
“This Housing Bubble Is Different Than 2008, But Equally As Scary”, Nasdaq
“Fast rising prices coupled with increasing household debt levels are overheating the property market that could eventually threaten the global economic recovery. In a recent report, UBS highlighted 6 cities exposed to bubble risk which they so aptly named the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Naturally Hong Kong is featured on the index with Vancouver, London, Stockholm, Sydney and Munich rounding out the list. “
“Canada’s Record Household Debt Is Threatening Its Financial Stability”, Bloomberg
“Canada’s debt, swelled by a decade-long housing boom to almost triple the size of its economy, is drawing increasing concern from an international banking community that says it threatens growth and financial stability.”
“Moody’s Says Canadian Housing OK As It’s Sued Over U.S. Bubble”, Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/10/24/moodys-canadian-housing-us-bubble_n_12621332.html
“Moody’s recently gave Canada’s housing market a clean bill of health, and says it is about to be sued by the U.S. Justice Department for its alleged role in the U.S. housing bubble that triggered the 2008 financial collapse.”
“Record high housing prices could spur further B.C. sales slide”, Globe & Mail
“Real estate prices in the Vancouver region have gone up too much too quickly, creating conditions ripe for sharp declines, the author of a report on the country’s most expensive real estate market says.”
“The value of detached houses could tumble 20 per cent over a 12-month period, likely to begin in late 2016, Mr. Pinsonneault estimates. For detached houses, it roughly translates into values that could retreat to levels last seen in October, 2015.”
The article doesn’t have much value unless is followed with yet another brilliant post from Dr. Demento. Doctor Demento 22 hours ago It is amazing how badly this article misses, completely misses, the actual NEWS event. The first several paragraphs and the headline babble on about the (irrelevant, inaccurate and non-news-worthy) predictions of some bank analyst. And yet buried way at teh end of the article is the actual BIG news item. Here, allow me to re-write the headline and re-format the paragraphs, using the exact same information but in a different order: CHINESE MONEY LAUNDERING BEHIND VANCOUVER HOUSE PRICES: EXPERT A prominent Canadian bank analyst has determined that overseas money from China, accumulated there and exported from there illegally and in violation of Chinese and Canadian law, accounts for a very substantial amount of real estate purchases in Vancouver… Read more »
Bingo! If the money from China stops, prices will fall to where at least the top 10% BC wage earners can afford to buy. That is a fact.
Their deceiving creativity has no limits. Canadian authorities should be more proactive, determined and focused in fighting unscrupulous greedy cheaters before everything gets f*cked-up. It is almost as fighting some serious disease that always takes an another shape while entirely destroying the organism.
Chinese find a way to get around strict property laws — with a divorce
The most alarming part of the article: “There’s some risk that such measures will succeed too well. In a Sept. 28 report by Deutsche Bank, economists Zhiwei Zhang and Li Zeng estimated that a 10 per cent decline in housing prices nationwide would lead to 243 billion yuan in losses for developers. Consumer spending could fall, too, since people have taken on more debt to buy property. Mortgages accounted for 23 per cent of new loans in 2014, compared with 35 per cent in the first half of 2016 and 71 per cent in July and August. “The potential macro risk is alarming,” Zhang and Zeng wrote. That’s not to say China is headed for a meltdown. Banks haven’t resorted to the subprime lending that proliferated in the U.S. before the Great Recession, and despite the recent rise in mortgage… Read more »
remember when all of you thought that the “fox hunt” was going to cause real estate to collapse? lol, good times.
seems that every few months there’s something new that’s going to cause real estate to collapse.
We all know that real estate always goes up. It always has done and it always will.
looks like you are wrong again.
Can any of you answer my question?
When I go to Zolo.ca, the inventory totals are listed at the top of their page (today it is 20,000 +). What is the number referring to? Metro Vancouver? British Columbia? All of Canada?
Thanks in advance!
Genworth Mortgage bought by China
Chinese homemakers and students will be assessed differently than canadians for mortgages. And Canada taxpayers will backstop the risk.
Soon China will own everything.
To clarify, it was Genworth US that was sold. Genworth Canada remains a publicly treaded company, with a controlling interest owned by Genworth US.
Wrong again.
Go to Canadian Mortgage Trends website.
I just had a pleasant WTF! moment. R2117325 is in my area and was originally listed at 1,499,000. Then i posted here that i was pleased to see it reduced to 1,425, 000. Now to my joy i see it at 1,298,000. That’s a not-insignificant 13% decline. Still a stupid price of course. It’s directly across from Burnaby North Secondary so the traffic is grim in the mornings and at 3pm, and there’s a bus stop right across from the house.
The land definitely worth below $1 million at peak value. Now $900,000?
Maybe being a realtor and buying empty houses does pay the mortgage
I wonder how this realtor feels about the new RE regulator? Can you say career change coming.
3192 W 16th Avenue
$2.988M
http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2095784/3192-w-16th-avenue-vancouver
Property Description
EXCELLENT PRICE FOR FIRST TIME BUYER OR INVESTOR.
Monthly Mortgage with $600k (20%) down: $ 11,124
I couldn’t determine the income required for the first time buyer as it crashed the online calculator
I think this is one for the scrap book!
This beauty has been listed since early spring. Started at $3.88.
I was wondering if there might have been a price reduction making the realtor think of it as somehow “cheap.” This is where we have arrived where absolute values numbers are meaningless and a three million house is cheap — suitable for kids.
The price reduction happened in one fell swoop first week of August. They knocked a million off in a day. 3 months ago…
Oh. And current owner is chinese.
But with the 8’s it will surely sell?
11,124 a month + 1,000 a month of property tax + 200 a month for everything else * 12 months / 0.4 Total Debt Service Ratio gives you about 370K a year in steady, declared income. Macleans magazine says you are in the top 0.71% of Canada. Multiply by Canada’s population, you get roughly 250K potential buyers. Should be sold in no time.
That’s after tax income. Roughly $550k gross income required. Maybe the new President of UBC?
Either president of UBC or a small town corrupted clerk responsible for some kind of local agricultural permits in China, same thing income wise.
With a 70% reduction this 3 bedroom dump of a house would still require a $180K downpayment and $115K income to buy at todays interest rates. At slightly higher rates that would be $150K income.
the buyer will have zero income.
Also one more think I have a friend who is an older Westside Realtor. 8 years ago, he said was VERY happy with the off shore money. He would tap local seniors and sell to Chinese buyers.
Now even the locals are listing directly with realtors who have mainland connections.
So no work for him and he is pissed off and quitting
“Now even the locals are listing directly with realtors who have mainland connections.”
And then whine when they get ripped off.
There are lots of listings available. It is the sales that are hard to come by. Getting the listing makes a realtor zero if there are no buyers.
or the new Chinese only deal with Chinese realtors who work for Chinese RE companies. The old guard are left out in the cold.
Walked down 11th street from Arbutus to UBC
Every forth house and all the nice ones, dark and clearly uninhabited. Remember when Crusty said “maybe the empty homes belong to UBC professors taking sabaticcals” Ha! at $3 Million a pop?
I somehow think that the off-shore buyer will find a way around 15% and empty homes taxes and everything else these bozos throw at them (ten years too late)
Lets face it, if you were resourceful enough to make money in China, with 1.2 Billion competitors and able to skirt the rules to get your money out., do you really think they are going to play by our rules.
There are probably an army of accountants, lawyers and realtors waiting to help them.
I’m not sure it really matters if some of the Chinese buyers find a way around it. At this point, they may not want to find a way around it, unless they are 100% set on Vancouver as a long term re-location destination (if they have friends and/or family here)…but this number of buyers won’t have much of an impact. The 15% tax is an attack on sentiment of both locals and foreigners and as long as the sentiment is that prices will be dropping, a lot of these buyers will either wait and see or buy elsewhere. Chinese investors and speculators don’t like buying in dropping markets any more than locals. I also think the new mortgage rules have a bigger impact on the foreign buyer than most realize. Before they put down 35% and get the mortgage no… Read more »
You’re right. Chinese aren’t stupid. There are other places to park their money. Dallas, for instance has seen their real estate market surge in the past year. Same with Seattle. Who knows if it’s foreign buyers but people in Vancouver seem to live in this box where maybe through years of pumping our city as the “world’s most livable” we think that Chinese and everyone else will pay an ultra premium to live here. Well, sorry to say that that’s not true. The Chinese have ALWAYS preferred the US over Canada. And if Canada implements rules that are meant to discourage Chinese from buying (ie. you’re not welcome) they will go to where they are wanted.
The Chinese are terrified of the IRS. They know the CRA is a joke. That is way they come to Canada. They can’t pull their money laundering BS in the US.
“Walked down 11th street from Arbutus to UBC”
I take it you mean 11th Avenue? Everyone familiar with Vancouver knows that avenues not streets are numbered, so getting it right adds authenticity to a post.
WHO gives a crap? You want me to pick through your inane comments for errors. Why don’t you walk down 11th Ave yourself, oh that’s right you are in Ottawa
Maybe Patriotz is actually a post-scanning computer algorithm 😉
I somehow think that the off-shore buyer will find a way around 15% and empty homes taxes and everything else these bozos throw at them
There why has the Westside SFH market and West Van gone no bid? Almost 3 months since the tax was introduced and sales are still down 80%. I think that tells you everything you need to know about how many off-shore buyers are finding a way around it.
“tells you everything you need to know about how many off-shore buyers are finding a way around it.”
Right you are. And it follows that the no-bid status also tells you how completely dominated these markets are by off-shore buyers, able or not to get around the tax. My assertion stands that there are no buyers of significance on Vancouver westside and West Van, other than the off-shore. For years…as to the future, we shall see.
UBC professors who were hired as assistant professors in the last 8 years often rent.
11th Ave West from Arbutus to UBC, or even from Granville to UBC is exactly where to find many nice dark uninhabited houses. There are other pockets.
Looking at Airbnb in NYC there are still a ton of listings for whole apartment. My guess is policing this is another problem.
For once Vancouver is getting it right by requiring a business license ( hello CRA) to regulate this.
I’m interested in New Builds in Vancouver.
88 (!) E26th was sold in the last couple of days. Was listed for $2.498M.
Can anyone provide the sale price?
Get a realtor
2.3m 5% off ask. …they lucked out with a sucker buyer
FYI. That house on Oliver in Arbutus neighbourhood that has been the talk on here has b en removed from MLS. Sold? Any realtors know ?
It’s a new listing (LOL). 3 days on market. I believe it takes a few days to appear on MLS.
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2348-oliver-crescent
No. I saw it the other day on rew.ca at its new price. Now it’s gone.
From Rew – http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2117926/2348-oliver-crescent-vancouver
Original/Current realtor listing – http://www.thecolourofrealestate.com/current-listings
I had a realtor from New Coast Realty ring my doorbell during dinner last night. I said to him “oh you are the flippers” he said “I never flipped anything…” I told him it’s people like him that have ruined Vancouver for everyone. My wife said I was rude to him so I said, “then I was successful”.
You should have called police and report disturbance or suspect break-in.
“…and I think he’s armed!”
Or let him give his rap and film him.
Canadians are freaking out over birth tourism.
http://ripplenews.com/read/unknown/people-are-freaking-out-over-birth-tourism-in-canada-1bf2v6qr
It’s about time!
Mainland scum know every trick and angle to get into Canada. They are beyond dishonest, with no ethics or honesty. We need to block them completely from Canada.
Of course, people are freaking out, it went beyond insanity. Locusts are unscrupulous and ruthless when it comes to taking advantage and benefiting on others expense. Public must step up and press authorities to do something about their shit and before the entire country gets totally FUBAR. Why those fucks think that Canada owes them something and keep milking this country to the bottom.
…and Richmond hospital has become a locust breeding factory.
Kris Klaasen has been “gob-smacked” by Metro Vancouver’s housing turmoil.
While many worry the city’s bubble might be bursting, the 61-year-old communications designer is conflicted over how his modest Vancouver home has become worth almost 20 times what he bought it for.
“Housing has become a hyper-commodity in this city. Living in Vancouver has become very tense. And intense. Every day I’m in a conversation about the price of housing and what it’s doing to the city.”
I’m often ‘gobsmaked’ by this sites regulars negative responses to Oracles comments on immigration as a primary cause. He/she/it is the only one who seems to realize that this Ponzi scheme may have been slightly tamed but will continue unless we get the immigration monster that has become Canada’s deficit under control. I’m currently posting from Europe and can explain to any of you Social Justice Warriors what unchecked idealism can do to to country when I get back.
Governments have the power to reduce RE prices by any amount (even to zero), regardless of any other factor. Given this, government policy toward RE taxation and financing has to be considered the primary cause of excessive RE prices. Or if you like, voters who want excessive RE prices and elect like minded governments.
I think, perhaps, voters want prosperity and increasing RE prices feels like prosperity. It’s an easy way for the government to give money to those who have quite a bit of money already (aka, those who are most likely vote). If people felt rich, but RE prices were low, I don’t think they would be clamouring for them to rise.
Oracle is nothing more than a troll. If you don’t see that you are easily fooled.
Think you guys are the fools. Chilled knows where I’m coming from. You really think I was building a house?? Jokes on you. I left clue after clue but your too stubborn to see the forest for the trees.
I’m a renter. Don’t own and am not building anything. Royce (one of the smarter guys) caught on.
The others here…well hopeless.
Immigration numbers are the cause of runaway prices. But continue in your make believe world. And keep believing I’m building a house if it suits your line of thinking.
So what’s the problem? Do you have a crappy landlord, or do you feel you are overpaying, or what?
Maybe he’s not coming at it from a self-interested angle, Newcomer. Maybe he is concerned about the general direction BC is taking and whether this will cause it and the people who live here to do poorly in the end.
So you see Oracle as an altruist?
And If I owned, do you think I would waste my time here?
…. OMG. I think Oracle’s been out Oracled by half the board…… again! So many predicted the return…
The crash continues. Ozzie Jurock reporting today on CKNW October month to date 53% decline in condo sales and 77% decline in SFH sales compared to last year. Average prices down 20% since April.
I suppose Michael Campbell was flappin’ his gums and sounding like he saw it coming all along?
Actually Michael Campbell just bought a house in Victoria this Spring so he is pissed. If you want to know when there is a top in any market just look where he puts his money. I recall in Aug 2011 within weeks of the top in gold he said everyone should have 40% of their net worth in gold (like him). He was pumping uranium stocks, 3D printing stocks, Jr oil stocks all right around their peak. I wonder how he has any money left. Oh yea with a house you don’t need any.
True, but after listening to Ozzie Jurock on his show back in 2001-02 i DO wish i’d listened to him and attended one of the “make millions in real estate” workshops he was promoting.
Actually Ozzie does not sell properties in the Lower Mainland. Back in 2001 he was buying rental buildings in the BC interior, turning them into stratas and selling them to his students. Some sued him. Probably the worst of all RE investments you could have made at the time.
He’s pumping Alberta this year. The place where rents are going down. Well if oil turns around it might be a winner.
http://jurock.com/2016/01/02/edmonton-condo-near-downtown-96000/
he always says he told you gold, oil, C$, equities were about to go up/down, but never gives a link and time to the specific episode when he made the prediction. It’s always generalities.
music to my ears. So far deniers are in full denial. If i bring up the drop in prices in Vancouver’s detached market, i get a lot of “That’s because the $3m market has slowed but there are still bidding wars in the $2-3m market” (yes i actually heard that one yesterday), or “That’s only because of the sales mix. Fewer mega houses sold to rich chinese so it artificially made the median go down.” Another word for word challenge to my assertion that prices were falling already.
If we can only keep this rate of decline going for another year or two the reality will be unavoidable.
“If we can only keep this rate of decline going…”
Hopefully and not only because of housing but society and system fixing. On the other hand, $CAD at 0.748 $US today, and trending further down could be a bigger obstacle than low interest rates unless regulations and taxation of foreign money get further strengthened up?
To play the Devil’s advocate, a foreigner looking at Vancouver real estate through a CYN or USD filter would see an even sharper crash. If we take it that there was a lot of foreign buying recently, then we also have to take it that these buyers were buying into the rise. If they were attracted to rising prices up to now, why should assume that they are going to turn into bargain hunters all of a sudden? And if cheap is what they are looking for, they’d be better off shopping in Montreal, but they never do.
Just hope Toronto keeps going up, because as long as it does the Feds will keep tightening the screws. They don’t care if Vancouver crashes and burns because you know who will wear it.
Exactly. I never was about Vancouver. They could care less.
Point your friends to Zollo (https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends) where they can see that the mix has changed to include more detached but the trend has continued to go down.
Zolo is your friend.
If you scroll to the bottom of the Trends page you can graph median sale prices for houses/townhouse/condos going back 12 months. Although still affected by sales mix, median is less sensitive than the average to a small number of very expensive sales.
Median price is a trailing indicator.
MOI as a leading indicator. MOI > 8 months is considered by many (including the esteemed REBGV) to reflect a buyers market with downward pressure on prices.
Hot new west side listing 2348 Oliver Cres. 3 days on the market. First Showing this weekend!
http://www.thecolourofrealestate.com/r2117926-2348-oliver-crescent
As we know it has been listed continuously since June 11 (over 130 days), and price has reduced from $3.888M to $2.988M (23% reduction).
Love Vancouver. Where $3mill is marketed as “liveable” and you have to have strangers in your basement.
Sarc off
China house prices still on fire.
Absolutely, totally, no bubble….
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/china-s-housing-bubble-wobble
“Vancouver detached home prices to fall 20%, ‘correction will begin soon’: Economist”, BNN
“Vancouver’s detached home prices will fall 20 per cent over the next year as the number of homes changing hands in the city continues to plunge, National Bank Financial said in a report on Friday.” “In the case of Vancouver, we think a price correction will begin soon,” National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault said in the report.”
“While a correction of that magnitude sounds dramatic, the bank characterizes it as “moderate” given how high prices have climbed in the city.”
On the west side, prices already down over 20%. Due to the illiquid nature of real estate the correction will take a long time and will be a lot bigger than anyone expects. This bubble has been fueled by the popular delusion that real estate prices never drop over the long term. That may be true – over the long term prices end up higher. In the long term we are all dead, and within the long term there are periods when prices get higher than anyone ever thought they could and lower than anyone thought was possible. Speculators will be surprised when they see what can happen to prices while they wait for the “long term”. Amature speculators will be introduced to the effects of leverage on the way down. This will be an ugly lesson for many people.… Read more »
Déjà vu…
“Prospective homebuyers in Toronto — get used to one thing: ever-increasing prices. Either that or move further out in the GTA. Or rent.
Hey guys I’m totally new to this blog. I’ve never posted here before I swear. It’s not because I’m afraid to show my face around here so I have to pretend I’m someone else. You guys should buy a house because there’s so many immigrants coming not because I’m having massive bowel movements in my pants because my prices are dropping like a rock and my sawdust McMansion isn’t finished yet. For reals.