What day is it?
Friday!
That means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all, our regulag end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.
-unfortunately lazy admin didn’t get to the links..
But what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
Ottawa proposes sweeping changes to spread mortgage risks
Ottawa is launching consultations with the financial industry that could see lenders shouldering as much as 15 per cent of the costs of losses on defaulted mortgages that have government-backed insurance.
And of course those costs will be passed on to borrowers as higher interest rates.
15% is a start.
.25% increase in mortgage cost?
No idea, but one possibility is more gradation depending on things like credit scores, and certainly more diligence on the part of the bank when you apply.
sweeping and launching, oh my, Ottawa snivelers will be fluffing pillows and creating Goose filled bonds for their wages next
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends
As anticipated from the “head and shoulders” technical pattern, Vancouver median detached house prices have broken down below support level at $1.88M to $1.81M. I expect prices to retest the $1.88M resistance. If it holds, would indicate a bearish outlook. 😉
Of course, the real numbers are the median detached house sale price down 30% from the peak of $2.6M, and sales down 58% from the same 4-week period in 2015. Detached sale prices are now back at or below October 2015.
I smell blood.
And Vancouver Detached MOI =11
Globe reporter Kathy Tomlinson won the Best News Reporting of year, Jack Webster Award. Congratulations!
Shame on CBC, who should be a voice of people , but a RE pumper!
She should get the order of Canada as well, she’s a true Canadian hero.
The public can nominate people for the Order of Canada I believe, I think the forms are on the Governor General’s website. Kathy is nice and she does respond to emails timely. She does good work.
Shared with Ian Young at the SCMP. True investigative journalism.
Don’t forget Sam Cooper.
Ian and Kathy are so good!
I wrote her an email thanking her for her work. She wrote back a nice note. I like that!
>When you have no debts and your money is liquid, there are a lot of options.
there are even more options when you live in a van.
despite your nonchalant tone and unnecessary details the simple facts are that you want to buy but are priced out and will soon be pushed out of the city.
these are all things i’ve predicted would happen bears.
is this you?
Are you Oracle in disguise? Or, Judy in disguise…with glasses?
Dude, you don’t get it. I want to buy a place in Vancouver, but less than I did years ago. As prices have been rising, the value of the city to me has been dropping, but I digress. The point I want to make is that even if I won $10mil in the lottery, I still would not buy a place in Van right now. I refuse to buy any asset as overvalued as is Vancouver real estate. I think most on this blog feel the same way.
Right, but for RE obsessed people that kind of reasoning is extremely hard to comprehend. Thier all universe keeps revolving around a sawdust bungalow while every hour frantically checking calculators to see how much money their divinity “made” for them.
Agreed. Bought a ticket in the BC Children’s lottery with the clear condition that (in the extremely unlikely) event we won, we would take the $2.2M cash and not one of the RE grand prizes.
What makes you say a crash would be bad for some tenants?
More competition from people who would normally buy, or who walked away from their homes. Landlords in financial trouble, getting foreclosed etc. , which can cause their tenants stress (even if the law protects them to some extent). Good luck getting your amateur landlord to repair anything when they are barely hanging on.
Stretching it further, losing jobs if they work in anything related to real estate or consumer spending. Neighbourhoods in decline, stores closing, and just knowing people who are in financial trouble.
I see the problems of general economic stress, but that applies equally to owners. Generally speaking, when prices go down, vacancy rates go up so there is less competition, and landlords are more eager to keep their tenants. This is a basic rule of housing markets. That is why Calgary rents are down by 20%. It happens because owners rent rather than sell in order to avoid selling at a loss, or rent because they cannot sell at all. At the same time, downturns reduce the level of household formation (people stay with their parents rather than moving out, live with roommates rather than getting married etc.) and cause people to move away. Tenants who hold on to their income will be fine.
Correct. It’s not as though less people buying magically decreases our supply. Your Alberta scenario is a perfect example.
The rents may seem cheap, but so is the product. I was apartment hunting a few months ago and I was shocked at the condition of so many apartment buildings. These weren’t the cheapest apartments, either.
Then I started using the Bedbug Registry (which is no longer updated as of February), and realized I had applied to a few buildings that had severe problems with not just bedbugs, but rats, mice, roaches etc. etc. etc.
I moved into a building that seems well-run and still below 20% of my income, but it easily could ended badly had I not done a bit of investigating.
Be careful out there.
Seniors can defer their Property taxes.
I think he means “special assessments” by the strata.
Did the same thing, I can’t believe other long time owners aren’t cashing out and living on their investment returns.
“investment returns”.
I’m sorry, that phrase stated in the context of the Vancouver real estate money laundering casino makes me want to puke.
interest/dividends…..that better?
“Investment returns” in Vancouver real estate is like saying investment returns after winning the lottery, casino, or a pulling a successful heist.
You don’t chase bottom or whatever but look what makes sense compared to your financial situation utilizing some fundamentals (rent vs mortgage, household income x 3 -4 , etc) adjusted for specific location. Anything else is speculation.
Exactly what Combat roach said.
Yes but we are LONG way from 2006 prices. This tiny adjustment so far isn’t even a correction yet IMO, relative to the absurd increases in the past two years alone.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/22/world/asia/china-corrupt-officials-tv-series.html
New TV series about our new immigrants!
” In many areas, they have been ordered to watch the show. And its hero is undoubtedly Mr. Xi, the only nondisgraced leader to be featured. He is described as spartan, humble and happy with a simple diet.
“Hold high a sharp saber against corruption,” Mr. Xi intones on the show. “Corrupt elements will be investigated and dealt with as they’re uncovered. Corruption must be punished. Graft must be purged.”
So says the scumbag ringleader of the party who has billions stashed away in offshore accounts.
Anyway, if each episode ends with an execution then I’d love to watch the show. I don’t even need it translated.
Amazing, almost makes me want to investigate some way to upvote! +10
Is that show supposed to last infinitely or until the end of the world, casting once a week?
“…the most crucial factor driving up Metro housing prices has arguably been Ottawa’s Business Immigration Program (BIP), which was initiated in the mid-1980s. Ley estimates the BIP has brought more than 400,000 well-off immigrants to Metro. BIP has helped make Metro one of the most sought-after markets in the world for the $52 billion Cdn each year that Chinese buyers now spend on overseas property, Ley said.”
Try competing on prices with 400k offshore millionaires. Thanks Christy, you and your buddies must have made fortunes.
“Ottawa’s Business Immigration Program”
Maybe you should consider extending your thanks to those somewhat more deserving.
The nice thing about living in Ottawa is that nobody calls the Federal Government “Ottawa”. 🙂
“Ley estimates the BIP has brought more than 400,000 well-off immigrants to Metro. ”
Vancouver metro population has about doubled since the mid-1980’s, from 1.2 million to 2.4 million. Not all of this growth was immigration, Vancouver had strong net domestic migration for much of the period. The claim that 400K of the immigrants, which would likely be about 1/2 the total, came under BIP doesn’t make any sense to me, since it’s a fact that it represents a small % of total immigration.
Further to the above, Vancouver metro’s immigrant population was about 900K in 2011 and is likely about 1 million today. That’s all living immigrants going back to WWII times.
That immigrant population number needs analysis re: moves in/out of Metro, moves (real/concealed/ fake) back to the homeland, deaths, etc. Even allowing that the number has been, as you suggest, exaggerated, the fact remains that business formation in Canada by this class of immigrant has been very low, and much of even that has been fake. Obviously, it’s been good for RE & related businesses, luxury goods, and casinos…that’s about it.
This is a big part of the problem. Vancouver reached a critical mass of chinese immigrants at some point and this made the location even more desirable. It means future immigrants can live an entirely chinese life here but enjoy the benefits of a safe and pleasant democracy that just happens to be nice to look at. Everyone they deal with from the house sales person to the plumber speaks their language. They already have significant social networks in place. I don’t blame them for wanting to come here. Even if they thought prices may fall, i suspect many would still come here above other locations just because of the factors mentioned.
That all said, just because they want to come doesn’t mean we should let them come….
Bingo! That’s why why prices will never go down more than 25%.
McCallum will seal the deal next month with 400,000 immigrants announcement.
Oracle, you promised to fuck off.
Not only to let them come, but to start cleaning the field to oust the current locust’s nests for once and all otherwise wasteland will prevail. Just get the right tax policy and go after money.
A lot of people in victoria seem to think that Victoria is going to be the new Vancouver and our prices will just keep going up and up. They think people from Vancouver have “discovered” Victria and all want to move here. I mentioned jobs … one person said – oh there is the government …..and some tech…..
Thoughts?
Never say never. Keep in mind that there are no fundamentals supporting Vancouver house prices either. I have a buddy who spends every weekend on the island shopping for a nice place to live while there are open houses his place here. The recent run up is stupid. But that is irrelevant.
People here seem to think that Victria will become the next Vancouver in Real Estate as everyone from Van will be moving here…..
Victoria will crash just like everywhere else. Bubbles always go back to their starting point.
I hear lotsa people buying up Saskatchewan jewels like Stoon and Vegina, Prince Albert.. ham wants some wheat n snow
New
102
Price Change
50
Sold
105
TI:9,939
MTD:
Listings: 2915
Sales: 1602
For weekly sales and/or new listings info on a specific neighbourhood/city of your interest, email me and I will customize a weekly update for you. The daily sales numbers only mean so much. Each neighbourhood and market segment can be quite different.
Thanks Paul!
Curious anyone know how North Van houses holding?
Median Detached price looks to be about 10% off the May peak of $1.8M. Still up 10%-15% y/y
Detached sales down 66% compared to same period last year.
MOI = 8
All in all North Van detached houses are holding up pretty well compared to Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey…
Better than most other cities in the REBGV. Nice homes under 2M will sell but very few with multiple offers anymore. The market over 2M is pretty dead.
3646 sales in the REBGV for October 2015…..1602 so far this month and the new lending rules just kicked in. Anyone that still thinks the market isnt in freefall is a blind fool.
I can’t wait to see the total tally of how few detatched homes have sold in total once this month is over.
Sales will be down about 30-40% YOY. Pretty big drop with SFH showing the most weakness.
“The new law allows for fines of up to $7,500 for people who advertise rentals of fewer than 30 days in multiunit buildings, a violation in New York City since 2010.”
My understanding is Vancouver will have larger fines.
1 yr flip 4738 Inverness
1230000 Purchase
22600 ptt
100000 reno
1345000
–
43000 realtor fee
1302000
72k in pocket
Looks staged… the CRA will be licking chops at these ones
If bailed say 3 months earlier total profit 272K
They had listed at $1.5mill. Looks like they are not amateurs and hit the bid in a newly tough market. Probably lower realtor fee as they are in the flipping biz but also taxable.
Naive people pay realtor fees. Most that. It $1 million plus have family as realtors. Max $5000 commission.
This blog so naive.
Buyers agent isn’t family. No discount there. That is 50% of commision. If you get a discount from the listing agent that is reflected in the selling price. You get what you pay for. You must live in Surrey.
World wide release of Civilization 6! Oh look! There is a Canada in the list! Wait, no, not Canada, just good old China. Guess we have to wait for some modder to add Canada in….
Can see BC joining Asia one day and Alberta joining the USA.
Vote to become communist?
No, just to wear those cute little blue caps.
Keep it up Space, and one day you’ll be hanging from Burrard Bridge enjoying the view
West Side big sale today: 1792 Wesbrook Crescent, asking $8.5 million (dropped from $9.8 million since the 15% foreign tax.
Sale Date February 14, 1997
Sale Price $1,200,000
This could be a tax free gain of $7 million after 19 years.
Good for them. I’m hearing that’s vancouver is set to go up again. 45,000 detached Vancouver home sales and 1,300,000,000 chinese.
Good for you. I’m hearing that’s vancouver is set to go down harder. 0 percent foreign buyers and plane after plane of corrupt billionaires from China flying in to sell.
“Vancouver home prices to fall as much as 20 per cent: bank”, Global News
http://globalnews.ca/news/3019232/vancouver-home-prices-to-fall-as-much-as-20-per-cent-bank/
“Canada’s National Bank is predicting home prices in Vancouver will fall as much as 20 per cent in the next year.”
“In a report issued Friday, the financial institution reported Vancouver’s curious housing market will see an “imminent pullback” as the number of home sales continue to fall.”
Feels like listings have really slowed down in the last week. Could this be because those “upgrade” buyers have lost purchasing power with the new qualifying rules, and can’t really “upgrade” any more? Although, you’d think all upgrade buyers would have a minimum of 20% down.
Nothing has changed girl. The amount of people coming into the city from abroad is accelerating. It’s sad to see how uniformed people on this blog really are.
Sad. Even sadder that they think they know it all.
Friend just bought a home for $2.4 million on Cambie today.
You guys don’t have clue what’s coming. You gonna be homeless if you’re renting.
Friend just sold that house, took him 3 months but finally found a fool. Said he’s got 10 more he’s going to dump. You gonna be homeless going all in on real estate.
You fools ever gonna realize what is causing high rents? Its demand because of people coming into the city from outside the country. No amount of mortgage changes gonna stop that. Rents going much higher. Maybe YVR and Billybonger can bunk together.
It will come to that because naive fools don’t have the brains to figure out the causes of their misfortunes.
Darwinism.
Welcome back, Oracle.
Oracle do you not have anything better to do? Loooooser
Sounds like you’r scared shtless Oracle. Sucks to be a south asian house wife with nothing but a Slurrey house. A sad life you lead.
Oracle, you lie repeatedly about leaving so we can assume you lie about everything else.
You’re a liar, period.
Beat it.
Hey guys I’m totally new to this blog. I’ve never posted here before I swear. It’s not because I’m afraid to show my face around here so I have to pretend I’m someone else. You guys should buy a house because there’s so many immigrants coming not because I’m having massive bowel movements in my pants because my prices are dropping like a rock and my sawdust McMansion isn’t finished yet. For reals.
Déjà vu…
“Prospective homebuyers in Toronto — get used to one thing: ever-increasing prices. Either that or move further out in the GTA. Or rent.
“Vancouver detached home prices to fall 20%, ‘correction will begin soon’: Economist”, BNN
“Vancouver’s detached home prices will fall 20 per cent over the next year as the number of homes changing hands in the city continues to plunge, National Bank Financial said in a report on Friday.” “In the case of Vancouver, we think a price correction will begin soon,” National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault said in the report.”
“While a correction of that magnitude sounds dramatic, the bank characterizes it as “moderate” given how high prices have climbed in the city.”
China house prices still on fire.
Absolutely, totally, no bubble….
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-20/china-s-housing-bubble-wobble
Hot new west side listing 2348 Oliver Cres. 3 days on the market. First Showing this weekend!
http://www.thecolourofrealestate.com/r2117926-2348-oliver-crescent
As we know it has been listed continuously since June 11 (over 130 days), and price has reduced from $3.888M to $2.988M (23% reduction).
Love Vancouver. Where $3mill is marketed as “liveable” and you have to have strangers in your basement.
Sarc off
The crash continues. Ozzie Jurock reporting today on CKNW October month to date 53% decline in condo sales and 77% decline in SFH sales compared to last year. Average prices down 20% since April.
I suppose Michael Campbell was flappin’ his gums and sounding like he saw it coming all along?
Actually Michael Campbell just bought a house in Victoria this Spring so he is pissed. If you want to know when there is a top in any market just look where he puts his money. I recall in Aug 2011 within weeks of the top in gold he said everyone should have 40% of their net worth in gold (like him). He was pumping uranium stocks, 3D printing stocks, Jr oil stocks all right around their peak. I wonder how he has any money left. Oh yea with a house you don’t need any.
True, but after listening to Ozzie Jurock on his show back in 2001-02 i DO wish i’d listened to him and attended one of the “make millions in real estate” workshops he was promoting.
Actually Ozzie does not sell properties in the Lower Mainland. Back in 2001 he was buying rental buildings in the BC interior, turning them into stratas and selling them to his students. Some sued him. Probably the worst of all RE investments you could have made at the time.
He’s pumping Alberta this year. The place where rents are going down. Well if oil turns around it might be a winner.
http://jurock.com/2016/01/02/edmonton-condo-near-downtown-96000/
he always says he told you gold, oil, C$, equities were about to go up/down, but never gives a link and time to the specific episode when he made the prediction. It’s always generalities.
music to my ears. So far deniers are in full denial. If i bring up the drop in prices in Vancouver’s detached market, i get a lot of “That’s because the $3m market has slowed but there are still bidding wars in the $2-3m market” (yes i actually heard that one yesterday), or “That’s only because of the sales mix. Fewer mega houses sold to rich chinese so it artificially made the median go down.” Another word for word challenge to my assertion that prices were falling already.
If we can only keep this rate of decline going for another year or two the reality will be unavoidable.
“If we can only keep this rate of decline going…”
Hopefully and not only because of housing but society and system fixing. On the other hand, $CAD at 0.748 $US today, and trending further down could be a bigger obstacle than low interest rates unless regulations and taxation of foreign money get further strengthened up?
To play the Devil’s advocate, a foreigner looking at Vancouver real estate through a CYN or USD filter would see an even sharper crash. If we take it that there was a lot of foreign buying recently, then we also have to take it that these buyers were buying into the rise. If they were attracted to rising prices up to now, why should assume that they are going to turn into bargain hunters all of a sudden? And if cheap is what they are looking for, they’d be better off shopping in Montreal, but they never do.
Just hope Toronto keeps going up, because as long as it does the Feds will keep tightening the screws. They don’t care if Vancouver crashes and burns because you know who will wear it.
Exactly. I never was about Vancouver. They could care less.
Point your friends to Zollo (https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends) where they can see that the mix has changed to include more detached but the trend has continued to go down.
Zolo is your friend.
If you scroll to the bottom of the Trends page you can graph median sale prices for houses/townhouse/condos going back 12 months. Although still affected by sales mix, median is less sensitive than the average to a small number of very expensive sales.
Median price is a trailing indicator.
MOI as a leading indicator. MOI > 8 months is considered by many (including the esteemed REBGV) to reflect a buyers market with downward pressure on prices.
Kris Klaasen has been “gob-smacked” by Metro Vancouver’s housing turmoil.
While many worry the city’s bubble might be bursting, the 61-year-old communications designer is conflicted over how his modest Vancouver home has become worth almost 20 times what he bought it for.
“Housing has become a hyper-commodity in this city. Living in Vancouver has become very tense. And intense. Every day I’m in a conversation about the price of housing and what it’s doing to the city.”
I’m often ‘gobsmaked’ by this sites regulars negative responses to Oracles comments on immigration as a primary cause. He/she/it is the only one who seems to realize that this Ponzi scheme may have been slightly tamed but will continue unless we get the immigration monster that has become Canada’s deficit under control. I’m currently posting from Europe and can explain to any of you Social Justice Warriors what unchecked idealism can do to to country when I get back.
Governments have the power to reduce RE prices by any amount (even to zero), regardless of any other factor. Given this, government policy toward RE taxation and financing has to be considered the primary cause of excessive RE prices. Or if you like, voters who want excessive RE prices and elect like minded governments.
I think, perhaps, voters want prosperity and increasing RE prices feels like prosperity. It’s an easy way for the government to give money to those who have quite a bit of money already (aka, those who are most likely vote). If people felt rich, but RE prices were low, I don’t think they would be clamouring for them to rise.
Oracle is nothing more than a troll. If you don’t see that you are easily fooled.
Think you guys are the fools. Chilled knows where I’m coming from. You really think I was building a house?? Jokes on you. I left clue after clue but your too stubborn to see the forest for the trees.
I’m a renter. Don’t own and am not building anything. Royce (one of the smarter guys) caught on.
The others here…well hopeless.
Immigration numbers are the cause of runaway prices. But continue in your make believe world. And keep believing I’m building a house if it suits your line of thinking.
So what’s the problem? Do you have a crappy landlord, or do you feel you are overpaying, or what?
Maybe he’s not coming at it from a self-interested angle, Newcomer. Maybe he is concerned about the general direction BC is taking and whether this will cause it and the people who live here to do poorly in the end.
So you see Oracle as an altruist?
And If I owned, do you think I would waste my time here?
…. OMG. I think Oracle’s been out Oracled by half the board…… again! So many predicted the return…
Canadians are freaking out over birth tourism.
http://ripplenews.com/read/unknown/people-are-freaking-out-over-birth-tourism-in-canada-1bf2v6qr
It’s about time!
Mainland scum know every trick and angle to get into Canada. They are beyond dishonest, with no ethics or honesty. We need to block them completely from Canada.
Of course, people are freaking out, it went beyond insanity. Locusts are unscrupulous and ruthless when it comes to taking advantage and benefiting on others expense. Public must step up and press authorities to do something about their shit and before the entire country gets totally FUBAR. Why those fucks think that Canada owes them something and keep milking this country to the bottom.
…and Richmond hospital has become a locust breeding factory.
I had a realtor from New Coast Realty ring my doorbell during dinner last night. I said to him “oh you are the flippers” he said “I never flipped anything…” I told him it’s people like him that have ruined Vancouver for everyone. My wife said I was rude to him so I said, “then I was successful”.
You should have called police and report disturbance or suspect break-in.
“…and I think he’s armed!”
Or let him give his rap and film him.
FYI. That house on Oliver in Arbutus neighbourhood that has been the talk on here has b en removed from MLS. Sold? Any realtors know ?
It’s a new listing (LOL). 3 days on market. I believe it takes a few days to appear on MLS.
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2348-oliver-crescent
No. I saw it the other day on rew.ca at its new price. Now it’s gone.
From Rew – http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2117926/2348-oliver-crescent-vancouver
Original/Current realtor listing – http://www.thecolourofrealestate.com/current-listings
