Friday Free-for-all! Oct 7th 2016

Well, it’s the end of another beautiful work-week and that means it’s time for another Friday free-for-all!

This is our standard end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Vancouver down for the count
Sales plunge 33%
AirBnb registration system
Government wants your opinion
IMF lowers canadian economic outlook
Foreign buyers almost disappeared
2 years from retirement, buy a house?
Why would anyone get into the market right now?
West Van vacancy tax

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
exx
Member
exx
Wow, it has been a few years since I’ve actively participated here. Back in 2013 we were renting a 2 bed condo, had our 2nd child on the way and were faced with a scenario where either we found a bigger place to rent or buy. Despite my hesitation we bought a townhouse because with our down payment (20%) and the silly low rates it was cheaper to buy than rent something equivalent. Now here we are, 3 years later (and with 3 kids) finding we’ll need more space eventually. For the last few months we’ve contemplated listing after seeing the value of this townhouse go up 50%. But we couldn’t justify it not knowing how much crazier this market would get despite me being convinced the government would step in to stop this. Of course now that they have… Read more »
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Ditch it and rent.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
your decision is definitely a tricky one. the problem is that because the squirrely folks running the show could do anything and everything at a moments notice depending on what the flavor of the day happens to be, being left with no skin the game is also a risk. who knows what happens after the election is over. timing things is next to impossible. if this correction turns out to be of the ugly, drawn out variety policy makers will ultimately cave into the pressure and restore things to they way they were (but only after friends, family and accociates pick all the low hanging fruit first). imho the RE mkt is too big to fail and a catastrophic price decline would wipe out millions of Cdns for decades (maybe generations). the funny thing is that the very same buyers… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the stock market is a perfect example. just when it looks like it’s game over (or is being made to look that way), the invisible hand steps in a messes with all the naysayers once more. safe to say those that bet on further collapses post 2008-09 are totally extinct now

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Makes tons of sense to sell then buy in a down market, which we are not yet in for townhouses. The gap between what you have and what you want shrinks. I would hit those “$2500” rentals with your family in tow to see if your family is as enthusiastic as you are before doing anything.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

I agree with ostritch on this. I speak from personal experience when saying the rental market is brutal right now. It is hard to even get responses to inquiries. Some building caretakers are in bad moods because so many people are responding to their ads that they are overwhelmed.
exx, how do you feel about co-ops? I know some are crappy buildings full of irritating people. Others are well run and actually welcoming to families (even with pets). Vacancies come up now and then. If I were in your position, I’d send applications out to the co-ops and at least check them out.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Co-ops? I think of every strata building in this city as being crappy and full of irritating people.

Another question to ask yourself before you sell and rent is what do you do with your equity? If you keep it safe, you’re looking at 3%. If you want to grow it to maximize what you can buy and to offset your rent, you’re putting it in stocks, which may be in the same bubble as housing.

It all comes down to how well you can predict the future, which you can’t.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon
I can’t in good conscience tell you to tell sell and rent (vs. buy in again), simply because this market has defied logic for so long. Sure, these new measures are in place. But is it a precursor to a rate cut that is going to tank the CAD and lead to increased foreign participation? I do believe we’ll see a substantial correction, but is this it? Will it happen in two years? Five? We’ve gone so far beyond what I thought would happen. Some people will say this is the end of the line for the run-up. I think many who’ve seen this thing play out over a lot of years will have a hard time moving beyond cautious optimism until listings are at 15k+, prices are falling, and the volume on public discourse and teeth gnashing over falling… Read more »
Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

I want to add that, of course, it would be sad to lose (yet another) young family. But you’ve got to do what’s best for you and yours.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Most here will mistime the bottom, same as their calls of a top were wide of the mark for a decade (and, technically, still counting).

patriotz
Member

“same as their calls of a top were wide of the mark for a decade”

I don’t think anyone was calling a top during the 9 months in 2008-9 when prices were falling.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You miss the point just like you’ll miss the bottom.

Some were waiting for prices to fall further. Now 7 years later they’re even further behind.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Agree. Which is why you have to follow the rule of what makes financial sense for our family. Buy back in when you hit that mark or very very shortly thereafter.

chilled
Member
chilled

My thoughts? Assuming you are a male and you produced children the conventional way, I’ll just say; treat her like gold, it’s rare to find a woman who doesn’t go bat shit crazy at the mere mention of selling and renting. (And no, Patriotz I don’t have any statistics to back up my statement, just life experiences that come from doing other things than compiling numbers and being a complete asshat at times)

exx
Member
exx

lol, agreed.. she is gold. She wants a bigger place. I don’t see that happening unless we take our money and run and position ourselves to scoop something up, but she knows we agreed to do this together so if this plan goes south well, we can afford something pretty nice in almost any other part of the country except for Toronto.

exx
Member
exx

Plus we’re not looking for prices to return back to 2006 or whatever I had originally believed. Even if they revert from this recent insane run up back to 2014 we’ll be in good shape. (ie: townhouses we want selling for $500 and not $750…)

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Like.

mls watch
Guest
mls watch

Townhouses are not very overpriced compare to detached. Might not go down that much. My choice would be: buy a home in a nice place with fresh air, big yard, animals, for the little kids to grow (Sunshine Coast, Nanaimo, Galiano). Park wife and family there for a few years, save one daycare. Commute/Air B and B/ rent small basement bedroom in Van if you cannot relocate your job. Work online as much as possible. Repay the house asap, and see what’s next.

Ulsterman
Member

i considered such a move myself and then realised it’s insanity. Live by myself downtown weekdays, missing 5/7th’s of my precious children’s lives just so i can own in this city. That’s crazy. I’d pack up and move to another Canadian province before i’d inflict that on my kids.

patriotz
Member

In addition, if Vancouver tanks, the fringe markets are going to tank even worse. Lower price does not mean better value. Nanaimo looks about at expensive as Ottawa – it doesn’t make any sense.

exx
Member
exx

Thanks everyone for all of the thoughtful responses. Definitely a good amount of food for thought in here.

atomicfrog
Guest
atomicfrog

I just wanna say to be very cautious when you list the townhouse now, you may not get a single offer at all. Wait till next Feb/Mar. This market is definitely slowing down for all housing types. I know because I am listing my townhouse now and is stilling having problem getting an offer. There is nothing wrong to sell and run in this market. Good luck

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Wait till next Feb/Mar.”

It will be much worse in Feb/Mar. Take what you can get now or plan on staying forever.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I feel sorry for those who took that advice from people here in 2013.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Nobody cares what you think.

Burnaby Bear
Guest
Burnaby Bear

My pat answer is to sell and rent. But I did that in 2004 and I am still renting!

But, depending on where you want/need to live you should be able to find something reasonable to rent for $2500. I am living in a 1970’s house, about 3000 sq ft in North Burnaby – paying $2100. The downside is the crappy landlord who takes forever to get things done. But there are a lot of houses in Burnaby for $2500 and all the landlords can’t be mutton heads,

Ulsterman
Member

BB – I too am in N Burnaby paying $2100/month for a 10,000 sqft lot. I will be out by next summer because the owner want to build a duplex. Equivalent houses are at least $3k++++++++. Not sure where you are seeing the 2500 places. I’d welcome links to these rentals.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

The owners plans may well change by then. I also posted some Craigslist rental links for Burnaby house rentals around $2500 but the post went to moderation. Many houses for rent at that price point.

Burnaby Bear
Guest
Burnaby Bear
Ulsterman: I have been looking at Craigslist for the past 6 months or so, as we want to move closer to my kids school so she can walk. My target area is VERY small – maybe 15 square blocks in Sperling-Duthie. In Sperling-Duthie/Westridge prices for 4 BRs range from 2500 to 3500 with some even higher. But there are a lot in Brentwood Park, Willingdon Heights that are priced lower. Also there are a lot in the Deer Lake/Lakeview area (not the mansions) that are in the $2500 range. Unfortunately for me, all of these areas are too far from our school. Note that all of these are the listed price. I always offer a lower price. It doesn’t always work – but the place I am in was listed at $2500, I got it for $2000. The market may… Read more »
Ulsterman
Member

BB – we are neighbours. I too am in the Sperling-Duthie areas with kids at both Sperling and Burnaby North, so i’m keen to stay close. I should have mentioned that I always look for larger homes (5 bed+) because i have homestays pay the bulk of my rent. For a delightful three year period when my rent was only $1800 i lived essentially rent free.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I see lots of houses in the 2500 range in N Burnaby. If you are a family with a high credit score you might be able to get a few hundred taken off the listed price. Most applicants for houses are groups of freinds, which landlords justifiably distrust. By offering peace of mind, you can demand a quid pro quo.

I\'m With Stupid V
Guest
I\'m With Stupid V

Seriously not worth the hassle to rent. Can you imagine having to move if your landlord decide to sell? How many times do you really want to move with 3 kids.

You time it wrong you will eat away all your savings by renting.

If your townhouse goes down, that should be fine since the property you eventually buy will probably be down.

Ulsterman
Member

well said. It’s fine moving if you are 25 and single, but with three kids…

Burnaby Bear
Guest
Burnaby Bear

Definitely a consideration. I always read about people who have been renting the same house for 10 years with no rent increases – I would love to find a landlord like that!

We have a LOT of stuff (books/crafts/ etc) that we have accumulated and moving it all is back-breaking (if DIY) or expensive (if movers).

I hope to be able to negotiate a reasonable rent in return for a long term lease.

Ulsterman
Member
Exx: The rental market sucks as has been said by others. You currently have the peace of mind and equity to withstand a very significant price correction. Stay where you are with your wife and three kids and get on with your life. The trauma of uprooting your family to move to a house that may end up being sold out from under you within 1-3 years just isn’t worth it. Focus on the other thing that make your life good. Every time there a small correction in sentiment and price the bears come out beating their chests proclaiming that’s it’s blindingly obvious that the end is nigh. It just isn’t. Maybe prices fall 20%. Ooooooh! That takes us bake to what? 2015? I bet your townhouse is bigger than most people in Europe has to raise a family. Just… Read more »
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

I am starting to HEAR the silence of those around me who ran out and bought properties in the past several years and who thought they “had it in the bag”…the ones who also used their homes as ATM’s like there was no tomorrow.

I am SEEING RE sitting for longer and longer despite major price reductions; especially here in the Tri-Cities.

I think renters (especially the ones who had the foresight to see this collapse coming and who sat it out) will be the “envied ones” for quite some time to come.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

You had me until your last paragraph.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well the, stick your tiny head in the sand.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Lol

Ulsterman
Member

If he’s referring specifically to those who bought around March 2016 i agree with him. But i don’t think anyone who bought more than a year or two ago would be envying renters any time soon.

patriotz
Member

Depends a lot on whether they get hit with higher rates due to risk sharing by the banks (or even a BoC rate rise LOL) when they renew. I have said all along that betting on today’s rates staying that way indefinitely is a big gamble.

Larry
Guest
Larry

How much would they need to fall before the renters jump in? Keep in mind Vancouver condo prices increased 50% YOY while they patiently awaited the crash they thought was going to occur since 2006.

Has the average rent increased or decreased since 2006? Will the average rent go up or down by 2026?

patriotz
Member

“How much would they need to fall before the renters jump in?”

Other things being equal, prices would only have to fall incrementally before some renter jumps in (marginal pricing). But the new mortgage qualification rules have changed that.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

How many times have you made this same post over the years?

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

BoomBust

You ain’t seen nothing yet. Will get much worse imho (note: this is the opposite view to Oracle’s).

Could see a bit of a burst in buying to beat 17th and also some nov 30 changes, but that is all window dressing.

We know what happens when greed is replaced by fear.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

What happens? You conjure up another alter ego?

Gora
Guest
Gora

Can you pst once without writing the word “Oracle”?
Or are just an alter ego of Oracle spamming this board?

patriotz
Member

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/canadas-housing-markets-well-that-was-fun/article32288385/

Canada’s housing and mortgage markets are in the midst of wrenching change as policy makers scramble to ensure a bubble doesn’t burst, that homes are more affordable and that the risks to the financial system are limited.

Wow he managed to pack a lot of contradictions into that paragraph. The rest of the article is good though.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Three levels of government taking action within three months of each other when they should have done so over a decade, I would say it won’t end well but I rather I think it won’t middle well.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

FYI, there is no such thing as a “soft landing” if that’s what you’re hoping for.

Larry
Guest
Larry

how about 2008-2014?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

The pilot aborted that landing, pulled back the throttle and set the autopilot to CLIMB, having decided that he’d let the next pilot take care of issues like fuel and gravity.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It was a soft landing. Of course if you limit your observations to only hard landings then, by definition, that’s all you will see.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Harper and Flaheerty goosed the market with 100% financing. What else could anyone expect except for a take-off? Jesus! Give your head a shake!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So it wasn’t a hard landing then?

Gora
Guest
Gora

Oracle is that you?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Because,we NOW have 170% debt to income ratios, a 15% foreign buyer’s tax, 70% home ownership rates, new mortgage rules, a huge amount of new construction inventory in the pipeline, an economy on the skids and NO Harper.

avgjoeblow
Guest
avgjoeblow

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-financial-services-watchdog-short-staffed-due-to-low-pay-auditor-general/article32287291/

This government has got to go. Take money from BC Hydro, ICBC, and now this. Certain money received should be earmarked and has to be spent on what it was intended for. This, carbon tax, transit tax…etc…all should be earmarked.

history
Guest
history

my g/f holds me by the ears….not sure if thoy are good for much else, since i dont wanna hear the crap from the main stream media that posters love to link.

‘hear’ is another link to canadian mortgage trends…..gawd i love this website… mortgage workers slitting their throats as we ‘chat’

marginal lender… didnt know there was so many…. and the refi -balance sheet screwage looks epic…. tawk about Garbage…. we be takin’ it out for many more years!!

history
Guest
history
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Some very high end west side properties hitting the market in the last 24 hours.

1919 W. 57th listed at 17,8M

2106 SW Marine listed at 38M

2711 Pt Grey Rd listed at 16.8M

Larry
Guest
Larry

2106 SW Marine is $38,000,000 also just listed

YVR
Guest
YVR

2106 Marine sold for $9.5 M in 2014. Had a major reno since but $38M? Good luck with that. Someone is out to lunch.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Even they can sniff the change in the air.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Unless there is a word that lots of money recently left China so better get the laundromats ready.

Start tracing money for fuck sake!!!

YVR
Guest
YVR

1919 W. 57th listed at $8.8 in 2013. Maybe they had it gold plated to bring the price up to $17.8M. Delusional.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Chinese are now smuggling Carfentanil into Canada and other western countries, which is 100 times more deadly than fentanil, which itself was 50 times more powerful than heroin.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-china-synthetic-opiate-20161007-story.html

In late June, Canadian authorities seized a kilogram of carfentanil shipped from China in a box labelled printer accessories.

The powder contained 50 million lethal doses, according to the Canada Border Services Agency — more than enough to wipe out the entire population of the country. It was hidden inside bright blue cartridges labelled as ink for HP LaserJet printers. “Keep out of reach of children,” read the labels, in Chinese.

chilled
Member
chilled

Wait until Santa McCallum builds his monorail to Beijing

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Racist press with their racist intentions to suppress progressive entrepreneurialism and business creativity when it comes to product eficiency, packaging and shipping.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“We can supply carfentanil … for sure,” a saleswoman from Jilin Tely Import and Export Co. wrote in broken English in a September email. “And it’s one of our hot sales product.”

Fucking mindset, the same as “supplying garlic” as long as it makes a profit. Who cares anyway, millions dead or not..

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I think the motive on their part is far more sinister than just profit.

mls watch
Guest
mls watch

PS: good luck finding rental for a family of 5. Do your research.

Oncebittwiceshy
Guest
Oncebittwiceshy
Royce McCutcheon3 hours 10 minutes ago I can’t in good conscience tell you to tell sell and rent (vs. buy in again), simply because this market has defied logic for so long. Sure, these new measures are in place. But is it a precursor to a rate cut that is going to tank the CAD and lead to increased foreign participation? Ahhhh Royce, quite the contradiction of purpose in that statement. It would appear that you are attempting to dissuade our friend exx from selling and renting by throwing out the strawman of potential further increases. Let me attempt to describe the psychology of the market as prices are falling ….. and our good friend exx probably sees this kind of news on Global and in the newspaper. The increased media attention is the only ammunition needed to further exacerbate… Read more »
Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything
Kim
Guest
Kim

Stroll through Aberdeen Square and it’s the same thing. Been open for like two years now and still many empty storefronts and few customers.

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

Lotsa bubble tea sales pun intended …not so much retail sales.

I\'m With Stupid V
Guest
I\'m With Stupid V

That is high end shopping?? More like another crystal mall.
Real high end shopping like Holts and Nordstrom are killing.

Kim
Guest
Kim

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/parents-cautiously-optimistic-richmond-bc-board-will-keep-schools-open/article32309513/

Closing schools left right and center in Richmond and Vancouver. I thought tons of immigrants and their families were moving here. After all that’s why home prices are skyrocketing right?

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

632 E20th, 1/2 block off Fraser, 25′ lot, peat bog.

Pre foreign buyers’ tax
Sold in 15 days for $1.20M on July 5 2016.
Featured in the Vancouver Sun!
http://vancouversun.com/life/homes/craftsman-style-home-has-modern-flair

Post foreign buyers’ tax
Listed September 26, 2016 (apprx) for $1.288M
Price reduced October 7, 2016 to $1.248
https://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=17431695

3 month flip for $48k?
WTF?

Kim
Guest
Kim

This will be a loss after you factor in all the fees and property transfer taxes. And the loss is magnified if they leveraged.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

The vendor seems “motivated”. Haven’t heard that term for a while.

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

Panicvated

I\'m With Stupid V
Guest
I\'m With Stupid V

How much you wanna bet the owner is probably also the agent.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

dont think so. wouldnt be hard to check anyway.

my theory is that buyer was a classic Holmes on Homes sucker who fell in love with the cheap Maytag appliances with stainless steel finish, the cookie cutter 0.75in granite counters and “character” oozing from every nook and cranny and bought (sight unseen) a fluffed up remodel off a someone intent on simply flipping house. this house is over 100 yrs old likely needed to be gutted down to the studs. how much do you wanna bet this wasnt done and all kinds of corners were cut?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

surely the clawfoot tub was the clincher…

YVR
Guest
YVR

“3 month flip for $48k?”

Obviously not the plan. Transaction costs make it a loss if it does sell for asking (it wont). Just a rush to the exits by those who have clued in to what is happening. Cutting their losses in other words.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Wtf is wrong with Canadian newspapers that that is ‘news’?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

How many Vancouver homeowners know this, I wonder?

“In deciding to apply the gross negligence penalty on the unreported taxable capital gain (which is equal to 100% of the income not reported), the judge took into account the fact that Mr. Boulet built the house so that it would have two separate housing units and sold it on the basis that it had two separate housing units. ”

Now that everyone will be reporting their capital gains, this little factoid should change the calculations for quite a few people basement suite loving Vancouver.

http://househuntvictoria.ca/2016/10/07/do-you-have-to-pay-capital-gains-tax-on-your-suite/

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Problem is no one reports basement suites income. T2 and Christy seem fine with that.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
without knowing exactly how principal residence declaration will work it is hard to say if anything really changes going forward. this said, to better get a handle on things one would would have to assume that CRA would now require disclosure of all properties owned whether for investment purposes or principal regardless if they are sold in that tax year or not. things then get tricky when it comes time for your tenant to do the same thing (and possibly file certain deductions on own tax return). at this point even a chimp could figure out if you are renting out part of your principal residence and whether or not you are declaring any of the income. if you are going the airbnb route a business licence would need to be applied for (and filed away for future reference) too.… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It looks like it will be a pickle for people who have not declared to date. When they sell, they will have to fill out the schedule. They will either have to lie on the schedule or do a lot of explaining about their past returns.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I guess you didn’t get the memo. The tax code changed last week.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Little Billy,

I’m in Laguna beach. Looking for a property near Heisler Park. Very nice day here.

Are you still worried about my predictions? Lol

Prices here crazy compared to vancouver.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You made it through the US border? Better wait till after the election before you buy in the US. If Trump is elected you may not make it through next time.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You’ve drank too much koolaid. Nothing is going to change. Two puppets runs by the same masters. That’s what everyone here saying.

Canadian media Messing with your guys critical thinking skills.

dyugle
Guest
dyugle

Laguna beach is to LA as White Rock is to Vancouver. Only problem is LA is one order of magnitude larger and has a diversified economy that is orders of magnitudes larger. They also have Fortune 500 companies located there where as we have none. But other than that the comparison is spot on, I guess prices will never go down, there will never be a NDP government or a recession and we will all get a pony.
Seriously though, do you think that this tax of Kristy’s is a plan to create an economic crisis leading to her reelection as the voters do not trust the NDP with the economy?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

More jealousy.

Expected from the fringe here on this blog. There is a group here who has been saying Laguna prices gonna crash 90%. Been saying it for 20 years now.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

I doubt that. Laguna is world class and the prices are not crazy compared to Vancouver.

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything

You are of course aware that if you buy property in the US you are deemed a US person by the IRS. And taxable on global income by the IRS.
Forever.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Bull. There is not a scrap of truth to that (it would be nice if that were true) but even if you weren’t just making stuff up, why would a Canadian care? We have a tax treaty with the US.

Ulsterman
Member

exactly. you have to complete an IRS tax report each year i think but of course you are not double taxed. Fear mongering!

patriotz
Member

“You are of course aware that if you buy property in the US you are deemed a US person by the IRS.”

That is complete nonsense. Vancouver residents have owned properties in Pt. Roberts and Birch Bay for generations. If you own a property in the US and rent it out you do have to file a return for the income, and when you sell it you have to report the capital gain. Just like a foreigner owning a property in Canada.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“How the new housing rules affect your purchasing power”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/how-the-new-housing-rules-affect-your-purchasing-power/article32307002/

“We’ve asked RateHub.ca, an online personal-finance resource, to calculate what buyers at three income levels could afford under the new and outgoing rules. “

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canadian mortgage rates could rise under Ottawa’s new rules”, Global

http://globalnews.ca/news/2990237/canadian-mortgage-rates-could-rise-under-ottawas-new-rules/

“Mortgage lending changes by the federal government are going to make it harder for non-bank lenders to operate and could see Canadians pay higher rates on their loans, mortgage brokers warn.”

Kim
Guest
Kim

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/first-time-home-buyers-take-hit-with-new-mortgage-rules-1.3795836

Poor Dil Kaur. Must be one of Oracle’s relatives.

The article makes the assumption that prices will keep on rising. Don’t people realize that this is the problem? Low interest rates? And this lady is some admin person (probably making at most 40k a year) who was looking for a 600k-700k house? With parental help, of course.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

and how does differ from your thesis that high dividend paying stocks are the place to be?

Kim
Guest
Kim

I’m cash flow positive from day one when I buy a dividend paying stock.

I generate enough income right now to retire in my 30s. Don’t care what the stock market does. I’m diversified enough such that my portfolio will never go to zero. If it does, it’ll be because of some major catastrophic world ending armageddon.

I don’t need to take on debt which has risk, always.

That’s what’s different.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

What’s happens I find enough dividend cuts mean you have to start withdrawing equity? It’ll go to zero then.

patriotz
Member

Even during the 2008 financial crisis bank stocks didn’t cut dividends. We’ve seen big dividend cuts in the energy sector recently but a diversified dividend paying portfolio has continued to do well and will continue barring a repeat of the 1930’s. And we know how well RE did back than.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

US banks cut dividends.

Kim
Guest
Kim

What happens if a 9.0 earthquake strikes Vancouver and your home crumbles and all Chinese refuse to invest in Vancouver? Canadian insurance companies go bankrupt and your million dollar bungalow is just dirt.

I hold companies that have been increasing dividends for 25 years plus. Not likely that all of them will cut dividends all at once. Didn’t happen in 2008. Not likely to happen in the future.

patriotz
Member

“how does differ from your thesis that high dividend paying stocks are the place to be?”

The government doesn’t guarantee loans to stock buyers with 95% margin.

Gora
Guest
Gora

No, Ramindeep and Hardik are it’s relatives.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
patriotz
Member

Translation: We’re afraid the new Federal regulations will bring on a bust, and the provincial election is less than 2 years away.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
160
Price Change
69
Sold
101
TI:9852

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Brian Ripley
Guest

On my absorption rate chart there is a clear break in trend for Vancouver sellers:
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

It has been a fascinating blow off top to a mature bull market. The Toronto market is a bit slow on the change but their sales volume is 4 times that of Vancouver’s and I suspect unless earnings pick up, the sentiment change will pick up speed there as well.

Seasonally, it’s all over until 1Q 2017. It’s going to be a long wait for any flippers who have purchased recently.

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

I can’t read your charts. Could you try making them simpler? One piece of data for one city at a time?

This is insane:

http://www.chpc.biz/uploads/9/7/9/5/9795010/sep16-moi_1_orig.png?716

YVR
Guest
YVR

Listening to Ozzy Jurock today and his outlook on the new changes are pretty dire (for RE pumpers that is). One interesting thing he noted is you must claim your principal residence every year on your income taxes even if you do not sell. I assume they will also ask if there is a suit, specific questions on rental income, etc. Plus how many audits will this start. Those who all of sudden claim a suit who didn’t in the past claim any rental income. Game change for those with suits. Get ready to pay your taxes and penalties!

history
Guest
history

All those mortgage writers laid off by the new rules could be hired as goo tax auditors. But that might be conflict of interest.

history
Guest
history
Ryan Kirwan, HQ Mortgages Inc. October 4, 2016 at 8:24 AM Wow! “Of all the changes the government has made over the past couple of years to curb housing prices, this may be the one that gets it done! For those buyers with less than a 20% down payment, this new policy could mean a HUGE difference in affordability. And the Finance Department just didn’t pick on the rich this time! Relatively speaking, everyone that needs Mortgage Default Insurance will be affected. “What this new policy ‘should’ accomplish, is that in due time, housing prices will have to adjust to the Buyer’s affordability. If the Seller wants to wait for someone to come along with 20% down payment, they may be waiting a long time. In order to sell their home quicker and open up to more buyers, they’ll have… Read more »
Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

Why did this couple go to the media? Did they think they were helping AirBnB?

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2016/10/04/vancouver-renters-fight-for-the-right-to-airbnb.html

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“He came to us saying…stop using short-term stays, and we gave him the finger”

He sounds like a fantastic tenant.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

Imagine him as your host. What would he say if you asked for an extra towel?

Sailor55
Guest
Sailor55

He’d probably give you the boot.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Did they declare that $2,000 month income on their taxes?

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything

Not a chance

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

I would assume they just did it.

chilled
Member
chilled

I’ll bet the airhead names her son ‘Cole’

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

How about “Jamie” or “Cody”?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

These guys think that there should be an exception for this kind of BNBing, but it is the worst kind. This is the renter’s version of low interest rates. They can’t afford the asking on their local income, so they turn it into a hotel to cover the rent. This is now a rent comp for the neighborhood, so everyone else has to BNB to cover their rent. I know many people doing this. Horrible practice.

patriotz
Member

This is the best part of the story:

“adding that after fighting several eviction attempts, he and Slaw decided to buy a condo in False Creek.”

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