Friday Free-for-all! October 14th 2016

It’s the end of another week!

Let’s do another Friday free-for-all, our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

RBC: sfh out of reach
Slower growth or reversal
Blissful ignorance stage
Big market swings
Interest rate optimism
Change and pain
Condo prices dropping

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

newest oldest most voted
Notify of
trackback

[…] Skook wrote in to let us know of updates to the Sunshine Coast / Bowen island stats.   […]

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Oracle I wonder if you will be righter or wronger on this prediction than your call for 7,000 listings by the end of September.

What’s your guess on that?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

People gonna hold on to detached housing. That’s why listings continue at decade low per capita.

You realize that there is going to be no 90% correction right?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

And you do realize your wasting other people’s time by posting the 7000 thing over and over again. Move on.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

So far, mortgage rule changes are affecting locals more than recent immigrants/foreigners. Harder to qualify for the locals now. The $2 Million plus homes are whats driving the Vancouver market and that hasn’t been addressed.

SEEMS TO BE A WAR ON LOCALS AS OPPOSED TO THOSE BRINGING IN FOREGN MONEY ILLEGALLY.

Until they address foreign money inflows by Permanent Residents and limit immigration numbers both permanent and temporary (foreign students, 10 yr visitor visas, TFws), then this show goes on.

Rents will continue to increase with this massive immigration REGARDLESS of what happens to housing prices.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

I’ll say it again: for a guy who should be sitting pretty, owning his own piece of can’t-miss wealth via Lower Mainland real estate, you sure spend an awful lot of time here.

Just a theory, but if you’re wondering why people challenge you as much as they do, it might be because you’re not really coming off as a guy who has “made it” and feels comfortable in his position.

Foo Man
Guest
Foo Man

Your view is the amount of time one spends on here should be determined by whether they own real estate or not? So space on this blog rightly belongs to folks waiting for a crash to buy 1/2 price houses? Seems like that group has been pretty well represented – sadly.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You are one of the smart one’s here.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Faint praise…

Zero Down Forty
Guest
Zero Down Forty

Sales of homes worth over $1 mil typically have not accounted for a significant % of total sales.

For instance, in Greater Vancouver, 4,578 homes over the $1 million mark were sold in 2015, out of 42,000 total sales in Metro Van both sides of the Fraser. That’s around 10%.

Sales of homes over $ 2mil would obviously be significantly less than 10%.

More importantly, nearly 90% of sales were for product under $ 1mil.

Sources;
http://www.investmentexecutive.com/-/luxury-homes-sales-up-in-toronto-vancouver-in-2015-report
http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports?month=December&year=2014

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

The $2 Million houses are what’s contributing to the rapid rise in prices in Abbotsford. Spillover effects. U sellers in Van buying a 2nd house in Abby.

CRA got to show some balls and tax these guys when they sell. Examples need to be set. Otherwise the primary res exemption fraud will continue.

space889
Member
space889

BPOM suggestions about what to do with people that owns mutiple properties, like that guy with 37 properties, sounds a lot like what the Communist party did to those large landowners in the 50s. You sure you aren’t a closet Communist BPOM?

And if no one can own multiple properties where are you going to get the amateur landlords that will subsidize bears rent going forward? As they wait for the promised crash and 80% drop to 2000 prices plus inflation? But what if that is still to expensive for the Bears? What then?

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Chinese real estate billionaire says Vancouver customers troubled by B.C. tax

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/chinese-real-estate-billionaire-says-vancouver-customers-troubled-by-b-c-tax-1.3118404

BPOM should probably make sure he’s taken his blood pressure meds before reading the next quotes.

“Chinese investors have told him that the 15 per cent tax implemented in August is discouraging them from buying property in the city.”

Oh no! I feel so so sorry for these Chinese billionaires.

“He says he plans to discuss the matter with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau”

Hopefully our dear leader will rectify this injustice immediately upon hearing about it.

“Wu says the tax won’t deter him from plans to invest more than $100 million over the next two to three years to build mainly residential properties in Canada for Chinese buyers.”

That’s a relief. Hopefully he won’t stop until all Canadian real estate is finally in the hands of Chinese buyers where it belongs.

space889
Member
space889

So I guess instead of a $200K donation to BC Lib for next year election, it will be $400 to the Fed Libs then?

The 15% tax don’t apply to developers so I guess he figured out a way to either get around it, or pay less for land to the locals. Either way, don’t see how the locals will win here, aside from construction jobs and more taxes. Housing affordability probably isn’t going to be helped here.

Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

The way they will win is called expropriation. Look it up. That’s what is coming next.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Perhaps Justin should ask Mr Wu WTF is China doing by banning foreigners from buying there! If Justin have guts, ban all Chinese from China from buying here.

patriotz
Member

““He says he plans to discuss the matter with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau”

He appears unaware that unlike back home, JT does not have the power to jail provincial politicians on “corruption” charges if they do something he doesn’t like.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

“Frank Wu, vice-president of the China Real Estate Industry Association, said Chinese investors have told him that the 15 per cent tax is discouraging them from buying property in the city.”

That is exactly what the tax is supposed to do.

Now fuck off back to china, asshole.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

When you take the 100 mills in context, it only buy 3 of the student’s $31 m house.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Those obnoxious Sold Too Late! signs that proliferated in Vancouver over the spring and summer.

I am going to get a bunch of Too Late! stickers and slap one on any sign that has “New Listing!”

space889
Member
space889

I want photo evidence. Otherwise it is just more empty hot air talk.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Cool Idea!

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

From Steve Saretsky today: Happy Monday Morning! Mark this Monday in your calendar. It could go down in the history books. The new federal Government stress test goes into effect today. All insured mortgages will now have to get approved at 4.64% instantly reducing buying power, demand, and likely prices. I wrote about its potential impacts a few weeks ago here. But don’t just take it from me. Kevin O’Leary famous businessman and investor says new lending policies and government intervention will end badly and will result in a “massive correction”. Here’s his full interview. While I don’t agree with everything he says, specifically that the government shouldn’t be getting involved. Let’s be honest the government (or rather the fed) created this housing bubble with prolonged dangerously low interest rates. Vancouver prices are up 250% since 2002. One has to… Read more »

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

They aren’t killing the local born and bred taxpayer worker with these rules.

What about the foreign money inflows brought into the country by recent permanent residents. Nothing!

Talk about a war on its own citizens.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Should read “are” above.

Admin, plz fix the mobile lag issue. Autocorrect goes nuts.

patriotz
Member

O’Leary thinks the government shouldn’t be involved? That it should get rid of CMHC altogether? Oh I forgot, for him “government intervention” really means less intervention in support of RE prices.

And it wasn’t just the low rates that created the bubble, but government guarantees on lending. Without those the credit just wouldn’t have been there, at least from 2008 onward.

space889
Member
space889

Basically if you are cash or asset rich, you win. Regular working folks are screwed as usual. Which group are you part of BPOM?

chilled
Member
chilled

O’Weary is alot like the Canadian Taxpayers Federation with nutty beliefs that utopia will somehow come with zero government. He’s a fool, they both are. But hey, looking at it from another angle, maybe O’Weary is right? We should also do away with the Criminal Code then someone could put a bullet in the peckerheads skull? Law of the jungle, O’Weary style!!!

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Central bankers have collectively lost the plot. They must raise interest rates or face their doom”, The Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/17/central-bankers-have-collectively-lost-the-plot-they-must-raise/

“Eight years after the global financial crisis they are still pursuing emergency policies that are becoming steadily more unpopular and counter-productive. Unless they change course soon, they will find their independence increasingly under attack. “

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

When Carney said awhile ago that CBs are not responsible for anything other than fiscal policy, he was ignoring the ramifications that fiscal policy has on the political and social landscape.

patriotz
Member

Want to think that one over? Fiscal policy = taxing and spending.

Anyway, central bank directors are appointed by governments and have mandates set by law. Nobody elected them and it’s not their business to deviate from those mandates.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Is that your definition of fiscal policy? I was commenting on the article above and I agree with its premise, that there are social ramifications to CB fiscal policy. If you want to inject a different definition of fiscal policy then go ahead but it doesn’t change the meaning. Should we call it monetary policy so you don’t get confused? And who cares if these guys are elected or not, still doesn’t change the fact that their decisions have farther reaching consequences than just monetary policy.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

I think Patriotz is simply pointing out that you have your definitions of fiscal policy and monetary policy mixed up.

Fiscal policy = government spending, borrowing, taxes, etc.
Monetary policy = the setting of interest rates and money supply by CBs

There is no such thing as “CB fiscal policy”.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Mortgage stress test gets Poloz off the hook on interest hike: Don Pittis”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-bank-of-canada-interest-rates-1.3804915

“Tougher lending rules give Bank of Canada room to manoeuvre as U.S. rates rise”

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Many concerned about making mortgage payments if interest rates rise: poll
http://www.news1130.com/2016/10/16/many-concerned-making-mortgage-payments-interest-rates-rise-poll/

Many people are financially stretched to the breaking point.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Housing market correction or ‘a whole lot of nothing’? Uncertainty as new mortgage rules come into effect”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-market-correction-or-a-whole-lot-of-nothing-uncertainty-as-new-mortgage-rules-come-into-effect-1.3806113

“Analyst says ‘radical change’ will trigger ‘full correction’ in Canadian housing market”

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

China’s billionaires club of entrepreneurs embarks on cross-Canada tour.
http://www.news1130.com/2016/10/16/chinas-billionaires-club-of-entrepreneurs-embarks-on-cross-canada-tour/

Now there is a Chinese billionaires club?
What a nightmare.

YVR
Guest
YVR

If anyone had any doubt what the government’s intentions are with the housing market this should clear it up.

Some critics now accuse us of overlooking the “unintended consequences” of our actions. In fact, the results of these policy changes were fully intended.

– Evan Siddall
President and CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/the-intended-consequences-of-new-housing-policies/article32383166/

YVR
Guest
YVR

For those who will say these changes will not work it just means more tightening and higher mortgage rates until prices go down. All this is 100% in the federal governments and CMHCs control and they have said that is their intention. This bubble is done. Keep your eye on Toronto If it keeps going up they will run Vancouver into the ground trying to stop it.

patriotz
Member

“If (Toronto) keeps going up they will run Vancouver into the ground trying to stop it.”

Right you are. Kill the chicken to frighten the monkey.

CMHC to issue first ‘red’ warning for Canada’s housing market

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

Yes, Greater Toronto has more than twice the population as Greater Vancouver. It also has, I’d guess, about three times as many Liberal MPs.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Does the Rate Spy know something? He is predicting OSFI will require all mortgages be stress tested (2%+ to qualify) and it is coming next Spring or sooner! Ouch.

The Spy says: October 16, 2016 at 10:30 AM
Thanks Paolo, The change on Oct. 17 hits the 20-25% of high-ratio buyers with above-average debt ratios. That’s a segment mostly made up of first-timers. Home values in most markets, especially weaker markets, will be under pressure. High-demand regions and high-end homes will withstand the change better, at least until OSFI asks that low-ratio bank borrowers be “stress tested” also (that could happen by next spring, possibly sooner).

https://www.ratespy.com/temporary-reprieve-low-ratio-mortgagors-10143324

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Finally something interesting…

Anti-immigration party registers for B.C. election

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/10/16/anti-immigration-party-registers-for-bc-election

I\'m With Stupid V
Guest
I\'m With Stupid V

“a political party devoted to “Canada’s traditional identity”

LOL

space889
Member
space889

So residential school for first nation children? No rights for women to vote and divorce? No more alimony payments? Legal for husband to discipline wife? I believe these are all part of traditional Canadian values in the recent past?

Kim
Guest
Kim
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

The exculpating (and dangerous) thing about China’s bubble is that they’ve never lived through this before. It’s all new to them.

I\'m With Stupid V
Guest
I\'m With Stupid V

We have lived through this, what has that taught anyone here?

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

A lot of the houses purchased in Vancouver uses borrowed money from China. When their credit bubble burst, heaven help Vancouver!

space889
Member
space889

Hahaha..the ad on the left has only 1 English word, KEY, and all rest are Chinese. Seems like this blog owner should take advice from some of the readers here about having official languges in ads. Unless that one word KEY counts as enough?

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

That’s because that ad is directed at YOU! None of us see that ad. Ad space marketing is sophisticated enough to know you’re a Chinese plant, and serves it up the way you like it.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Space thinks we all have ads for dildos in the sidebar. LOL. Not so little buddy.

space889
Member
space889

Hmm. .interesting. ..I didn’t know watch SC2 tournaments, total war let’s play on Youtube, and surfing VCI and Yahoo France, make me a Chinese plant.

space889
Member
space889

Hmmm….reading this blog all these years, I get a distinct impression that most bears on this blog want that SFH in that nice neighborhood they grow up in, that their parents bought for 3x income back in the day on middle class salary. I have NO idea that what they really mean is they want the SFH in Maple Ridge, Port Moody, Abbortsford, and beyond!!! That’s an eye opener for me. Now it all makes sense why Van West SFH prices are crazy despite shrinking supply and increase demand. Nobody really wants the Van West SFH, so there is no actual increased demand.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

It seems this crash has driven you to drinking….you’re clearly making no sense at all. Go easy on the booze and stay away from windows and balconies.

space889
Member
space889

Really? So you are saying very bear wants a Van west SFH and that is why price has to fall? Despite low interest rate, pop growth, and shrinking supply? Yah, that makes total logical sense.

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything
Tim
Guest
Tim

The “Chinese only” part is actually the least dickish and suspect part of the post.

space889
Member
space889

Why do I get the feeling that this post is just the kind of thing BPOM & Co. would do to generate anti-Chinese feeling on purpose? Seriously? Reading the ad sounds like it came straight out of this blog by morons who want to imitate the scummy Chinese landlords without actually knowing anything. It certainly got all the checkboxes ticks. Landlord living underneath tenants – but it’s a self-contained rental unit which is usually on the ground floor / basement? Old parents No cooking fish – which I’ve never heard as a complaint from people who are from China, but cheese, that’s another issue. No guests, no take out because of privacy? And seriously, if the poster really wants Chinese female only with interview, why the hell is the poster advertising on Craiglist?? Instead of say Van001, WestCA, etc or… Read more »

Told you so....
Guest
Told you so....

West Vancouver is back!!!!!!!!!

Average price rise is 85% this month!!!!! wowowowowowow

Smart money plowing back into housing.

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/trends

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Another clear indication that average prices are completely useless as indicators of changes in market direction.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You have to learn how to read charts. See the one on the right, next to the one that shows the exciting uptick? Do you see how the percentage of detached in the mix went up at exactly the same time? That’s what is making the average price go up. And why, you might ask, did the mix change? Did more people start buying SFHs? No. You can scroll down and see that there were only 21 houses sold in the period (a 75% drop), one of which sold for 6.5 M . Now look at townhouses and condos. Only 4 of each sold. There is about 19 months of inventory in West Vancouver detached and, with the exception of that one 6.5 M house, prices are down about 20%. Charts are fun, but you have to look carefully before… Read more »

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

So what’s happens when 80 houses sell next month. MOI then equals 5??!

Hope your enjoying not basing your future on this.

West Van is back!

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Small sample size. West Van Detached MOI = 20!!!!! Worse than Surrey.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Still back!!

Correction there over.

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

We spoke to Rock Star Remax agent about listing moms house, we last spoke in April before mom decided not to sell, he said then to list at 1.7 and expect over asking. Today he says list 1.49 or don’t bother…and to expect under asking likely take a few weeks to sell. Moms face turned red when he said that

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

He also wasn’t excited about a potential listing. ..must be that he has 12 listed and sitting collecting price reductions

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Realtors have become very lazy. They’re accustomed quick sales (money for nothing) so they don’t want listings collecting dust…too much work for no return. They will therefore be giving sellers the reality check at listing time. They’re now playing for home team: The Bad News Bears.

Ulsterman
Member

realtors will encourage price reductions because a speedy sale more than makes up for the small reduction in commission

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything

There’s got to be a lot of kids pushing for older mum and dad to sell. Inheritance depleting.

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Curious can agents still double end deals or is that now in the history books? Paul?

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

https://www.ratespy.com/temporary-reprieve-low-ratio-mortgagors-10143324

Buy now and be priced in forever.

Prices are falling… why buy now Mr Ratespy

YVR
Guest
YVR

For those not paying attention mortgage rates went up without interest rates moving for pretty much every mortgage after Nov 30. You will have to either qualify at a higher rate, will pay a higher rate for the mortgage, will both have to qualify and pay a higher rate or will not qualify period.

Uninsured mortgages remain available without any new strings attached, but again, those often come with higher rates and all require at least 20% down.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

A speculator who can’t sell his houses now for what he thinks they are “worth”?
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/bnc/apa/5831742097.html

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Sounds like they are meant to be sold as a package to a developer.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The shitty fixtures and appliances make them look like they’re were intended to be rentals.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Nah, they were just owned by poor people. Remember, that everyone in that neighborhood was poor until their houses quintupled in price.

Ulsterman
Member

I love how in photo 5, the PROFESSION house sales person can’t even take the photo without being fully in the reflection! Professionalism at its best.

Ulsterman
Member

professional – nice one….

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

He has changed the ad from when it was first posted. The addresses are now deleted.

Sum Ting Wong
Guest
Sum Ting Wong

A good read in case anybody forgets how expensive BC is:
http://www.cknw.com/2016/04/07/the-hidden-costs-of-moving-to-b-c-for-work/
BC=Bring Cash

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada Won’t Ride Out Another Financial Crisis Like Last Time: HSBC”, Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/10/14/canada-financial-crisis-hsbc_n_12493592.html

“It was a point of pride for Canada that it came out of the 2008 financial crisis in such good shape. The country benefited from strong banking regulations, as well as solid prices for commodities such as oil, coal and iron ore, the Toronto Star reported last year.”

“But Canada’s luck has essentially run out. The Great White North is no longer positioned to weather a crisis like that one, says an HSBC report released last week.”