Realtors warn of dramatic sales slump for September 2016

Do you feel like someone should have warned you that Vancouver real estate sales slumped dramatically in September? Well now you have been.

VANCOUVER — Real estate agents say home sales continued to fall dramatically in the Vancouver area last month and even hit a 10-year low in some neighbourhoods.

Agents say the high-end detached home market is seeing the most substantial losses, while the condominium and townhome market remains active.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, which covers a large swath of Metro Vancouver but excludes several large suburbs including Surrey, is set to release its home sales data for the month of September tomorrow.

Read the full article over at the Vancouver Sun.

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Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

These realtors are fools.

ALL they have to do is email their listings to Oracle and his relatives, who promise to buy all the inventory they have…until listings go down to the predicted 7,000 level.

He guarantees no correction due to this factor.

Is Oracle the genius he says he is? Guess time will tell.

franko
Member
Active Member
franko

Has it ever occurred to you that most of us might not give a rat’s ass about your relentless obsession with Oracle’s house.
Give it a break, PLEASE…it’s booooring!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Fucking ditto

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

So here is the important change of the day. The rest is just window dressing.

The requirement to report the sale of a principal residence to CRA.

Why this is effective depends on whether CRA is going to enforce this. They need to compare data from land registries to housing sale and and identify the people who own multiple properties NOW!

Otherwise the sanctioned tax evasion continues.

Oh the headline, prices and inventory matter more to renters than ‘sales’

ostritch
Member
ostritch

It does seem sanctioned. I wonder why they’ve decided to stop it now? At the Federal level that is. The Provincial level is obvious; the election. I wonder what devious leftie extremist policy is on its way offset this? It only makes sense if he’s planning on removing all barriers to entry so that there is more housing for all. That will make him a multi-culti “fairness” God in his eyes.

Tcg
Guest
Tcg
And here’s a Facebook post from a mortgage broker about the new Federal mortgage stress test: BIG NEWS out today from our Finance Minister – looks like there will be further tightening of mortgage lending guidelines starting in mid October: Here’s the scoop (if you are currently shopping – be sure to read to bottom): 1) All INSURED mortgage applications received on or after October 17th, regardless of mortgage term, will require a higher rate be used for qualification – today that rate is 4.64%. So basically, what they are saying is, even though today’s 5 year fixed rate is 2.39% – if you can’t actually afford a rate of 4.64% today, they don’t feel you should be buying (or you can buy – but for way less). 2) Effective November 30th, extended amortizations (30 and 35 year) which have… Read more »
Burnaby Bear
Guest
Burnaby Bear

If Garth is right, there is a bit more bite to Morneau’s announcement. According to GT:

“If you have a suite in your home, then sell it, the selling price must be split and reported. Part of it will qualify to the tax exemption and part will not.”

Having to report the sale on your tax return in order to claim the tax exemption is not a big deal, regardless of what GT writes, but all the people in Metro Vancouver who needed the renter in the basement to make ends meet will now have to pay capital gains tax on the proportion of their house that was rented will not be happy!

Disgruntled condo owner
Guest
Disgruntled condo owner

They will evict the tenants before they sell, and never mention it to CRA. But they will put it in their MLS description of course.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Of course the CRA will have a record of all past tenants on the tenants tax returns. The CRA could easily do a query of all taxpayers that filed taxes and lived in the house over the period of the principal residence claim then ask the home seller claiming principal residence on 100% of the house to clarify who these people were. Same for businesses using the house. Like shooting fish in a barrel for the CRA. Easier than auditing waiters.

Ulsterman
Member

love it. easier than auditing waiters!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

See my comment above

Newcomer-can\'t-post
Guest

I’m not so sure it’s no big deal. If you don’t have to declare it, you may feel OK about being a little fuzzy on the definition of principal residence. When you start filling out a schedule that asked you exactly who lived in it on exactly what dates, you may feel less comfortable about fudging it. Sins of omission sit more lightly on the conscience.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Only applies if the suite is > = 50% of area of home. Otherwise it does not apply. Patriots mentioned this before.

Burnaby Bear
Guest
Burnaby Bear

I found this on the CRA site: http://preview.tinyurl.com/howpwbe.

Looks to me that any legal suite would not qualify; and it many illegal suites would also not qualify. There is no indication that the suite would have to be 50% or more of the home’s square footage before being taxable.

david
Guest
david

Garth Turner…there is no ‘greater fool’ than he.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

this is already the case. nothing new here…

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

Sale Date September 27, 2010
Sale Price $1,600,000

Just sold (asking $4,497,000):
Foreign money going strong:
http://letssharesuccess.ca/mylistings.html/details-60700713

kim
Guest
kim

THis house was built in 2012. It was a tear down last sold in 2010.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Nice try UCM. Loser.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Doesn’t cost more than a million to build the nicest mansion btw. Costing me $375,000 tops to build.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

You are right here. Crap that’s build here should be even less than that given the top-shit materials used.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

While locusts are celebrating Mao and raising flags in the middle of Vancouver why would they slow down with marking territory and rather get the fuck out of here? We need bolder measures in order to make progress, this is still not enough to oust vermin.

“With the influx of Chinese capital into our real estate market, many locals are on edge with a feeling that our city is being sold off to the highest bidder.”

http://www.therebel.media/twitter_explodes_in_anger_as_flag_of_communist_china_raised_at_vancouver_city_hall

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Kerry Jang just took a big fucking piss on the graves of all the people who were murdered, tortured and opressed by the commies that he cozies up to like buddies.

Meanwhile Moonbeam is dating the daughter of a chi-com mobster.

Our local government is disgraceful, they may as well be a criminal gang themselves.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I can see a second or third generation Canadian celebrating Mao if, say, he were 24 and it was 1973. But a grownup in 2016?

patriotz
Member

Just saw Sherry Cooper on CTV News Channel. She said the new qualifying rate policy makes housing “less affordable, not more affordable”. OK, so if you have lower prices (inevitable if fewer people qualify) and the same lending rates for those who do, what do you get?

Where does Sherry work again?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

She’s an idiot. She has shown herself up over and over again…

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I thought Sherry Cooper was a marionette with a bit part in Team America.

david
Guest
david

She’s not an idiot nor a genius. Just a paid shill.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Less affordable for her with less mortgages.

Ulsterman
Member

It’s amazing how lacking many people are in basic economic understanding. When told about the higher qualifying rates and corresponding reduced qualifying amounts, a colleague of mine said, “So what? That just means the people will just have to move further into the valley. ” Not for one second did she consider that lower mortgage loans may lead to lower prices.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

THIS is the wait and see from the foreign buyer’s (phone a friend) tax.

We’ll see how long it lasts.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Yes I am sure they will reverse it within a few months. After the market has crashed 50%. By then it will make no difference. It ain’t coming back.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Prices are not falling by 50%, even with the latest news. Condos will not fall that much because they are are nowhere near 100% overvalued (which is what they would need to be to fall 50%), and detached will not fall that much because supply is massively constrained relative to population and population growth.

So I’m sticking with my prediction of a 10-20% drop. And I’m talking about Teranet or HPI prices, not average prices of west Point Grey mansions, which some people seem to think are representative of the entire metro housing market.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

detached will fall by 30-40% at least. i actually think condos could fall by way more with all that has happened. imho this is worst possible place to put your money now with restrictions on vacant properties, flipping, foreign ownership, short term rentals soon to be aspects of the RTA. and heaven forbid you should wind up in a building that has some material deficiencies that havent yet been addressed

BDK2016
Guest
BDK2016

If strata properties decline that much REIT and pension funds will buy them for their attractive cap rates.
If you chart Vancouver Condo prices back to 2008, they were very high relative to the amount of the monthly rental and then it took 7 years for the condo prices to appreciate again, because it started to make sense to own again. in Back then I was sure condo prices would crash, they slid a bit but basically stayed flat for 7 years until rent caught up.

Ive been gone from posting from this board for 6 years, glad to see a few familiar names like ULSTERMAN

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

your opinion has been noted and will be given the appropriate consideration.

patriotz
Member

Ottawa has brought this country’s housing fantasy to an end

The fantasy of endlessly rising house prices is over.If the housing market doesn’t respond to measures announced by the federal government on Monday, then expect more action ahead. Argue all you like about how economic and real estate fundamentals affect prices. In the end, it’s government action that will bring housing to heel.

Wow. There’s a Chinese proverb, “Kill the chicken to frighten the monkey”. Which city is the chicken and which is the monkey, do you think?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Mortgage broker David Larock said two-thirds of borrowers today are going with the five-year rate, so including them in the stress test is a major development.

“It’s the same as if rates went up to 4.64 per cent overnight,” Mr. Larock said. “There is a danger that government might have overtightened.”

Lets hope they didn’t over tighten. That would be awful. LOL

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

This current correction/crash is going to be a real mess for a lot of people, especially “specuvestors”/ My heart does not “bleed” for them.

I have been warning people about this market for a looooong time; some of them looked at me as if I had three heads, However, it only took one head screwed on the right way to see what was coming.

Oh well, they’ll find out

This will be the biggest housing collapse Vancouver has ever seen.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I think the biggest housing collapse Vancouver will ever see will come when China Hits the debt wall. Should interest rates rise concurrently, well then bears, you will have your day.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

What do we have to kill to scare away the locust?

A realtor? A developer? A city councillor?

history
Guest
history

dont have to kill anyone, simply Free Tibet

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

All you have to do to distract them from their usual activites is go on some site in the interwebs and start discussing what an interesting culture Tibet is and how positive the diaspora has been for the rest of the world, if not the Tibetans themselves, and what a great man the Dalai Lama is, and how the Chinese have stolen so much from Tibet and are selling it in Vancouver among other places.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I’ve update Comrade Jang’s Wiki page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Jang#Politics

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Why would a second generation Canadian go out of his way to arrange a celebration of Mao in a symbolically significant place/

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Either loyalty or bribery?

time to go
Guest
time to go
Skook
Member
Skook

Realtors have to have begun hurting especially those just starting out. Did you know that at more than 500 new Realtors joined the Board in the six months from Mar 1st to Aug 31st this year? No? Well, I didn’t either. I’ve posted details today on my stats blog…

https://sunshinecoastbcrealestatestatistics.blogspot.ca/search/label/RE%20-%20The%20Economic%20Spin…offs

I’ve also added two Sunshine Coast stats posts – both are for Dec 2015 to finish off that year.

PS. I apologize if a similar post shows up later. An earlier attempt is awaiting moderation (added coding to the link) which hopefully means it never sees the light of day – don’t know how often The Pope checks.

Skook
Member
Skook
Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Paulb must be out looking for a new job?

would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer

The real story is having to qualify at the posted 5 year rate – 4.64%. How can this not tank the market? I ran the numbers and for the average 2 br CONDO of $600K (forget about a SFH) with 10% down you need a family income of $126K. That’s $45K more than the average Vancouverite family earns. If you only have 5% to put down, you need a qualifying income of over $200K. If the market doesn’t correct then we know there are no locals in this market. Even if Vancouver holds strong, there is no way it can’t bring down markets in Coquitlam, New West, Surrey, North Vancouver etc.

Ulsterman
Member

Didn’t the Feds change the mortgage qualifying rule a few years ago? I found this on Canadian Mortgage Trends:

As of April 19, 2010, all insured variable and 1- to 4-year fixed mortgages over 80% loan-to-value must be qualified using the posted 5-year fixed rate, as published by the Bank of Canada every Thursday.

How does today’s announcement differ significantly?

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

My understanding is that 66% of buyers with insured mortgages have been choosing 5 year fixed, which were not previously covered by the regulation. Now they are. That will make a big difference.

Ulsterman
Member

Ah yes, that is a big difference. I only wish they’d brought the rule changes in with immediate effect.

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Cousin is a mortgage broker….he has his house listed…fingers crossed and bank account twisted. Hes leveraged and sweating bullets

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

never fails that those operating directly on the frontlines consumed the most cool aid. esp all the new upstart big swinging dicks out there who thought their overnight fortunes a result of financial wherewithal, business acumen and what not VS pure dumb luck, in right place at right time etc.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i believe only CWB requires clients to re-qualify their mortgages. if this becomes common practice at the big 5, then look out.

Newcomer-can\'t-post
Guest

It has gone from “variable and 1- to 4-year fixed mortgages over 80% loan-to-value” all mortgages.

YVR
Guest
YVR

It is the Bank of Canada posted rate you have to qualify for now instead of the banks 5 year mortgage rate. The difference is the banks rate is 2.17% compared to the BoC rate at 4.64%. In other words as far as qualifying goes rates just doubled.

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything

A city of paper millionaires and the food bank at its lowest levels since 1982

For Shane. 🙁

http://globalnews.ca/news/2981017/vancouver-food-bank-suffering-from-historically-low-supply-of-food/?campaign_id=A100

Newcomer-can\'t-post
Guest
Newcomer-can\'t-post

Many paper millionaires may be feeling a little less free with their money. It may be up to the bears to carry things for a while. I just donated. Let’s do our part.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

not just millionaires. any average joe that just scrounged up cash to buy in the last 12-18 months just lost his/her down payment in a matter of weeks. psychologically this will have a bigger impact than if some rich a$$hole made what amounts to a bad trade with house money

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

some groups don’t believe in charity for those that don’t look like them.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

and not to beat a dead horse with a stick, but many anecdotal stories of many well to do people being seen at food bank just for the freebies.

mls watch
Guest
mls watch

Sunshine Coast: my favourite stat website: http://www.garylittle.ca/stats.html

Skook
Member
Skook

He’s been s go to source , too.

Skook
Member
Skook

..a go to source, too

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Interesting that sales for the year are way up over the past couple years, but down a lot over Sept last year. This could indicate a pause in the cycle of boomers cashing out in Van and buying a retirement home up there, due to very low detached sales in Van. Could also mean those leaving Van to buy in more affordable areas, such as SC, have also pushed the pause button to see how things pan out here first…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

from approx jan to july pretty much every available det home w/ decent lot and/or view was gobbled up. there is nothing to choose from now. similar activity witnessed elsewhere like on vanc island for instance. prices in vanc for a comparable property are still 3,4,5x that of SC. the one wild card in all this is the proposal for a fixed link from mainland which is currently being reviewed. i think even if the foreign tax is extended to the rest of BC (probably not happening imho) that very desirable areas like this would be highly sought after if the situation with the ferries is remedied via a toll bridge/highway and/or some improvements are made to the existing ferry service

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
276
Price Change
102
Sold
152
TI:9769

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

How did we drop under 10000 if there have been more listings than sales every day?

Newcomer-can\'t-post
Guest
Newcomer-can\'t-post

Expieries.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

9K party.

Will we see an 8K party on Nov 1st?

rockerguy
Member
rockerguy

The sold vs inventory figures (i.e. absorption rate) are still really healthy, so I would not consider the market to be in full scale collapse. Absorption is running at about 20%; a sellers market starts at 25%-ish. If you own property, I think now is the time to get it on the market. If you wait for inventory to hit 12,000 before hitting the panic button, I think there is scope to really lose out.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver’s $1,000-a-Day Home Price Escalation Starts to Stutter”, Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-04/vancouver-s-1-000-a-day-home-price-escalation-starts-to-stutter

“Signs are mounting that North America’s once-hottest real estate market — where the average home was appreciating by more than C$1,000 a day — is entering a downturn. Gone are the days of frenzy when buyers placed bids without inspecting properties and sellers collected all-cash offers. Properties are taking longer to sell, transactions are plummeting and in some cases prices are coming down in a city where the cost of housing has doubled in the past decade”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Four major changes to Canada’s housing rules”, Globe & Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/four-major-changes-to-canadas-housing-rules/article32223470/

1. Expanding a mortgage rate stress test to all insured mortgages.

2. As of Nov. 30, the government will impose new restrictions on when it will provide insurance for low-ratio mortgages.

3. New reporting rules for the primary residence capital gains exemption.

4. The government is launching consultations on lender risk sharing.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

regarding item #1 banking software will do this automatically in case anyone here was wondering if parameters of test could be massaged and/or test itself could be waived.

i am also hearing through the grapevine that premiums on insured mortgages are set to at least double if not triple. stay tuned, lots of moving parts that havent settled out yet

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

With the new reporting requirement for a sale of primary residence, I think this has the potential to get much of the speculation out of housing.

As a renter, gather information to prove you’re renting a home. Gather information from land registry to see if your landlord has other properties. Then see if he claims the exemption in future on any properties and report them.

This tax evasion is costing billions.

If all renters do that, I think it has the potential to seriously affect the market.

Anyone want to comment on the suite in house/exemption situation?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

“Gather information from land registry to see if your landlord has other properties. Then see if he claims the exemption in future on any properties and report them.”

>>> good luck with that

also portion of principal residence used as a rental suite is not exempt and never has been. this is nothing new.

patriotz
Member

Two years from retirement, widow wonders whether she can afford to buy a house

Yes there’s still time to buy that ticket for the Titanic.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

you wonder how many stories of retired or nearly retired boomers who have lent big chunk of nestegg to offspring and other relatives to get into this freakshow of a market in the last few years? and now with what’s occurred over the last couple of months, many of these buyers just lost their down payments in a snap of a finger

this could all turn into a catastrophic mess for millions very quickly

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

My renter neighbours who have four young kids bought an investment property house in Maple Ridge in March because they thought they must for the sake of their children… buy now or be priced out forever FOMO . When people like this dive into the market, I know it is over. I hope they don’t lose too much money.

Royce McCutcheon
Member
Royce McCutcheon

I come from a household burned by buying at the exact wrong moment leading up to the early 1980s crash. All I can say is that, while I can look back and see how we might have been financially wanting at times, I had a great childhood and incredible support. If/ when people we care about take a hit on this – if this is the top – it’ll be important to remind them that this doesn’t define them or doom their kids.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

it is one thing being underwater and owing the bank money. having to witness your parents delaying retirement and/or returning to work is another matter. those that wind up in a mess like this can forget about funding their own kids’ education, housing etc

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger
Suspect we’ll see a bit of a surge in condo purchases as borrowers look to beat the 17th change. Will put some $ into the pockets of realtors and mortgage brokers. I suggest they save as much of it as possible. Boom bust, I am of the same view wrt this becoming by the biggest bust in city history. Anyone who can’t see this for the epic debt fueled bubble that’s it is must be daft. Or, an oracle of some kind. We could see the bank of canada drop rates, this gives them some cover to do so, and they want the Canuck buck lower as the economy is in the doldrums. But I don’t see see that helping W hat I believe will be a multi year decline in housing prices in Vancouver. Unless, of course, oracle and… Read more »
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Oh, this IS the end, alright. No turning back now.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Mass murder in China:
Yang Qingpei argued with his parents over money…
http://www.news1130.com/2016/09/30/man-suspected-of-killing-parents-then-17-neighbours-in-china/

The deaths are one of the bloodiest mass slayings in recent years in China, where deadly random attacks on schools and public transport have been blamed on people bearing grudges against their families, neighbours or society in general.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver homes sales plunge nearly 33% in second month since foreign buyers’ tax”, Financial post
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/vancouver-homes-sales-plunge-nearly-33-in-second-month-since-foreign-buyers-tax

“Average existing detached home prices dropped 4.2 per cent in one month while home sales dipped below a 10-year monthly average for the first time in more than two years.”

“The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Tuesday the average detached home in the region sold for $1,532,242 in September, down from $1,470,265 a month ago. At the same time, the average price of a condominium climbed 3.8 per cent in a month earlier, reaching $549,214.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

“average detached home in the region sold for $1,532,242 in September, down from $1,470,265 a month ago”

>>> so even UP is DOWN now? lol…

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest

The number does not matter, they are not real. Trump said he won all online pools after the last debate.
Do you know any other cities in western democracy controlled by the developer and RE industry besides Vancouver?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

*** just noticed that wording was correct, but the figures were reversed (wonder if this was intentional???). article has been edited. so DOWN is DOWN…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

actually taking another look, $1470265 was the figure for august as previously reported. if sept was in fact 1532242 then prices climbed 4.2% in sept MoM

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

article corrected
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/vancouver-homes-sales-plunge-nearly-33-in-second-month-since-foreign-buyers-tax

>>> let’s see how long it takes someone to dismiss sept price increase as nothing more than a dead cat bounce

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver home sales drop nearly 33% as new tax takes hold”, Globe & Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/vancouver-home-sales-drop-nearly-33-in-september/article32229083/

“The benchmark price for detached houses, condos and town homes slipped 0.1 per cent in September, compared with August. The benchmark price, a representation of the typical property in an area, is up 28.9 per cent over the past year in the region, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Tuesday.”

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