Vacancy Rates almost double 2001

After that irritating interruption from a hack attack, we’re back.

Meanwhile a lot of other people have gone to live somewhere else while they leave houses here empty.  According to this article over at BNN the number of vacant homes in Vancouver has nearly doubled since 2001:

Mayor Gregor Robertson, who has criticized some of Mr. Yan’s tracking of foreign home ownership in his city, said this latest study reinforces his government’s commitment to penalizing those who leave properties vacant.

“Seeing data that demonstrates there may be even more underutilized homes than BC Hydro suggests gives us more reason to aggressively move on the empty homes tax,” Mr. Robertson told The Globe and Mail Tuesday.

“We certainly hear, anecdotally, concerns about empty homes in various neighbourhoods, and now the body of evidence is building, so that helps.”

The B.C. government passed legislation in the summer allowing Vancouver to impose a tax on empty homes, which the city argues are taking up housing that could be rented out.

The province has said it will consider similar requests from other cities.

Read the full article here.

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Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Michael Campbell (don’t ya just LUV that guy?) was flappin’ his gums on Global BC’ 5 o’clock News tonight. Instead of giving people “facts” he (as usual) diverted his “logic’ and cited a recent Price-Waterhouse report that claims millenials will save the day due to their high percentage stage of the population (as IF any of them have much money to spend). HOWEVER, when pressed by that twangy, American-sounding Chris Gailus, he eventually caved and suggested things will be iffy in the “short term. Such a creep.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

He said that last part with those pursed lips and furrowed brow of his…

Ugh.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Saw that, he completely brushed over the CMHC Red Alert – “Oh ya that, well we are seeing bit of softening but no worries we’ll go back up”

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

I’m GLAD he bought that house in Victoria at peak price. Such an idiot. He deserves the results of his own lousy “forecasts”.

Dave
Member

Stop feeding the trolls and turn off the ‘News’. I cut my cable a year ago and it’s been great.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Posted by Michael Campbell & Ozzie Jurock (Whaaaa)

This is what happens when government doesn’t understand markets as sales numbers for Vancouver to October 21st has condo’s down 53% & single family homes down 77%! Thank you foreign buyers tax and Canada’s Mortgage rule changes. Where to from here for Canada’s strongest industry?

http://moneytalks.net/article-and-commentary/todays-best-money-making-ideas/real-estate/18450-hot-properties-government-blows-up-canadas-hottest-industry.html

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

“Canada’s strongest industry”…he’s such a dud; the tax is only speeding up what would happen in any case.

Dave
Member

Our biggest industry is importing millionaires IMO.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

If only he had said even HALF of what he says on that video on tonight’s 5 O’clock Global News.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Wow I can’t believe he did that interview with Ozzie yet made it sound like everything was going to be just fine.

patriotz
Member

“Canada’s strongest industry”

Canada’s most subsidized industry, by a mile.

patriotz
Member

“This is what happens when government doesn’t understand markets ”

“Understanding markets” for them means juicing RE. What Mike and Ozzie are steamed about is that they’ve decided to ease off on the juice.

The intended consequences of new housing policies

paulb
Member

New
198
Price Change
58
Sold
82

TI:9966

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

“Bubble observers” have said that the new mortgage rules would pull sales up for a short while after October 17; maybe this is starting to happen with a low sales number like today’s.

Buynow or Getlaidnever
Guest
Buynow or Getlaidnever
There’s a huge difference between sold date and processed date. The Real Estate Boards monthly stats are released using processed date. Meaning when they receive the paperwork for the sale. This means that although you may have an accepted deal on August 15 and subject removal on August 21 it likely will show up as an August sale because the board doesn’t receive the paperwork right away. **Note processed sale DOES NOT mean when the deal closes. It simply means when they receive the paperwork. Deals can take months sometimes years to close (pre-sales) so the board does not wait until closing to post a sale. They merely post a sale once the paperwork is received. This generally results in roughly 25% of deals being reported a month late which can skew data. However, because sales take weeks to process… Read more »
Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

Realtor question. ..is it still possible to double end deals? Or has that stopped?

Dave
Member

Still possible to my knowledge. I did this about 9 months ago.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Right now yes. At the top of the list to eliminate by the new chief.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I loved my double ended deal. Paid 100K under ask in the last breath of the last bearish turn in the market. Then it went up by 70%.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Get ready for it to go down by 70%.

I will do the math for you

100 x 1.7 = 170 x 0.30 = 51

You only lose 49% of your money!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

No way. Not unless there’s another global collapse. Look at the prices in comparable US cities. No way Vancouver will be miles less than other west coast cities. Not for long anyway.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

We should be priced about the same as San Diego

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything

We should be lower than San Diego. Way better jobs there.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

weather also better there…

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Should be the same as seattle.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

That would be a stretch, Portland makes much more sense given the economy and infrastructure.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

way more opportunities in Portland

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

“Comparable US cities”

I would love to know what you consider to be a “comparable US city”…. At some point we really need to stop the BS story that Vancouver is “world class” or comparable to other cities that actually have plenty of good paying jobs and opportunity.

Don’t get me wrong, I love it here. The mountains, the ocean, the natural beauty – all things that make it great. We cannot ignore the lack of jobs and opportunity when trying to compare Vancouver to other places.

patriotz
Member

” Look at the prices in comparable US cities. ”

You mean Las Vegas or Phoenix. Remember, RE is our “strongest industry”, as opposed to making planes and other boring stuff.

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Only lose 49% of your money… assuming of course that the initial purchase was not levered. Leverage is a bitch when prices on way down…

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

Only lose 49% of your money… assuming of course that the initial purchase was not levered. Leverage is a bitch when prices on way down…

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Uh huh.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Double ending deals is supposed to come to an end soon, but anyone will still be able to double end Julia Lau if the price is right.

specuskeptic
Member

Spit roast reference?

Dave
Member

I’m schizophrenic about this market. Some days I feel bearish and other days bullish. I see a lot of conflicting signals. In terms of real data, I give the edge to the bulls.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

You’re kidding. What “real” data? Everything I have laid eyes on looks “grim” (fore vendors that is…)

FYI
Guest
FYI

Inventory

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

That is a lot of “shadow inventory” out there; condo developers, etc. who don’t list on the MLS.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

How much? Remember we are taking about stats here.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

You’re the “expert” here. Rummage around and find out.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

lmao. you believe that the size of the “shadow inventory” shows that the market is crashing, but you don’t even know how big the shadow inventory is. hahaha, that’s classic bear logic.

add snarky passive aggressive responses and you get a new species of bear that we haven’t seen around here before, the millennial bear.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

I’m surprised you even have an ass left anymore; you’re so busy laughing it off all the time.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Oracle at least stay away for 1 week? SFH are over 20 months inventory. It will get worse from here. Sawdust houses have gone no bid.

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

” I see a lot of conflicting signals.”

It all comes down to MOI. And from that perspective detached looks likely to fall in the near term while attached/condo currently looks fairly stable.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

i believe realtor, Steve Saretsky, that attched properties are quickly shifting downward.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Clearly you do not understand how to read or interpret data. Even the shills have thrown in the towel.

Dave
Member
You must be new here. lol. This post is not for your benefit but others who might be interested to see another perspective. We’ve all seen the bear case so I won’t repeat it. On the bull side: 1. Inventory is very low. Yes, sales are low too, but people just aren’t listing. That means that people aren’t rushing for the exits and trying to sell. That’s usually what happens in speculative markets. In 2008/2009, the market stalled as well but quickly recovered by Spring. 2. MOI is important to be sure and the best correlation to prices, but it’s not absolute and there is some variance. Maybe this metric has less relevance in a low volume market. 3. Condos and townhomes are holding up. That’s the data case for the bull side. On the anecdote side, I’m still seeing… Read more »
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

That’s because Joe Sixpack hasn’t gotten the memo.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

When I see many new listings here in the Tri-Cities, Joe still thinks his house is worth $1,000,000 +. despite the fact that nothing is selling.

I guess the memo is stuck somewhere in the mail.

LS in Arbutus
Guest
LS in Arbutus

Check out the # of single detached homes for sale in Dunbar, 70. And then check out the prices. Unbelievable what people think they can still get for these homes.

$5 million crack shack:
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2104329&rowc=60&rowp=56&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=23&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=200000&MXPRC=90000000&SCTP=RS

Here’s a pre-build, ready in one year for $8.8 million….
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2110295&rowc=70&rowp=66&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=23&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=200000&MXPRC=90000000&SCTP=RS

This market can EASILY fall 50%. You cannot tell me a lot in Dunbar is worth $5 million, or even $2.5 million for that matter. This gotten way out of hand.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Listing prices are meaningless. People can dream whatever they want. The first one wouldn’t sell for 50% off that price today.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Fascinating Dunbar Detached Stats on Zolo
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/dunbar/trends

Feb – June Detached MOI was less than 2 months.
Detached MOI has been increasing since July. Currently, MOI is about 7 months.
Median detached sale price has fallen from about $3.5M to $2.5M, down 29%.

Like Dave I’m schizophrenic about the detached market. Some days I feel that it is suffering a major correction, and on others I feel that it is totally fcuked.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

You guys are really goingnfor it. But here’s the power that be saying they’re trying to cool the top, which has gone crazy with foreign cash, and the bottom, which has gone crazy with debt and meet somewhere in the middle.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-housing-market-analysis-1.3822175?campaign_id=A100

ostritch
Member
ostritch

How is the world’s most over-inflated housing market doing SIX YEARS after the government imposed even more restriction that our government has?

Hong Kong’s de facto central bank and lawmakers in 2010 embarked on a plan to cool soaring property prices that had put home ownership beyond the reach of most people. The measures included higher minimum down-payment requirements on mortgages, taxes on non-resident homebuyers, so-called ad valorem taxes tied to a home’s value and a special levy for purchasers who flip properties within three years.

ostritch
Member
ostritch
It went down 12% earlier in the year but the government wanted more. Developers were bitching and crying foul but the government paid no nevermind. And now this: http://english.caixin.com/2016-10-09/100994786.html Strong demand, particularly in September, has led to some condominium projects selling out on the day they hit the market. All 300 apartments built by China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. in its One Kai Tak project in Kowloon were sold on the first day when sales opened on Sept. 3, generating about HK$2.6 billion in revenue, the homebuilder said. The same day, eager buyers snapped up all 228 units at Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.’s Grand Yoho project in the northwestern New Territories. Hundreds of homebuyers lining up outside the offices of property developers since the early hours of the day, waiting to place an order, have again become a… Read more »
squeak
Member
squeak
After reading all the inns and outs on the housing market: I am thinking is this engineered slavery: Hype people up about real estate, renovations, flipping, selling/buying. Get them brainwashed through media: TV, Newspapers etc. Get them to taste the blood and go stir crazy. Keep interest rates super low. Housing prices go up for over a decade: it paid more to flip than to work as a Doctor or other professional. Governments ignored the situation well into a housing crisis for the working average productive young person. So, due to the created psychology, too many jumped in taking on too big mortgages with no margins for any “what ifs”. “If you don’t buy now, you will miss out” thinking rooted in the old powerful survival mechanism of “if you don’t take the chance to catch the fish now, you… Read more »
hmnhrmmm
Guest
hmnhrmmm

Absolutely true. Fractional reserve banking and credit manipulation (expansion / contraction). Banks win on both sides. It’s one of the main fundamentals of the banking system…been happening for the past 5,000 years since debt was invented.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Red pill realization…

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

and washing your with shampoo is a conspiracy by cosmetic companies.

think about it, did cave men have shampoo?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Absolutely correct but how about China’s factor and their injection? They were and still are a major component inflating the global housing bubble. If it weren’t them we wouldn’t be nowhere close to these insane prices, no matter how slavery engineers tried hard.

squeak
Member
squeak
It is a factor. I think massisve asian injection was another tool in the spiel. Adds to the psychology of the game in that I think it adds the to the” fear factor”, invasion of foreigners (immigrants… politically correct term) that look different, talk different, different culture, different values etc. People have felt being pushed out of their own neighbourhoods due to very visible massive immigration in combo with housing prices going through the roof and a government that seems to have disconnected from its citizens. Think survival mechanisms of the early mankind brain, it is still there: Early homo sapiens brain says “invasion”, those in power use the word “immigration”. The old brain still has a function, and is a part of our “modern brains”, without it we would be extinct, but it has been deemed politically incorrect to… Read more »
Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

How much more of this crap is going to clogging up our court system? Some people just can’t take a loss.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lawsuit-house-private-school-1.3821361

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

*be

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Unscrupulous corruption at all levels makes locust world to run. No wonder they would get surprised when something legit comes along and breaks their usual pattern.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“CMHC plays catch-up with vaguely alarming house price warning: Don Pittis”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-canada-real-estate-1.3822489

“Warnings about the Canadian property market are nothing new. International business publications and global banks have been calling it a bubble for years.”

“Nobody listened.”

“To many critics it might seem absurd that after property prices have been rising between eight and 25 per cent for years the CMHC is only now discovering overvaluations are in the “red” category.’

Dave
Member

It’s not playing catch-up to caution people at the top of a bubble. That’s like warning somebody to watch out for a curb after they trip over it. They just want to be able to claim they warned people.

I thought it was obvious 1.5 years ago what would happen to real estate valuations when Poloz cut rates twice.

If the government and CMHC had half a clue, they would have brought in all their rules to prevent speculation at that time.

patriotz
Member

First of all CMHC does what the government tells it to do. It is not an independent agency. Second 1.5 years ago we had a PM who was committed to juicing the RE market as much as possible. Remember ” incentives to help home owners”, from any politician, really means enabling them to pay higher prices.

We believe in bringing in specific incentives to help home owners, for instance the home renovation tax credit we’re bringing forward, improvements to the home buyer’s plan, the doubling of contributions to tax free savings accounts, things that allow people to save and invest more in their homes.

Dave
Member

And this is contrary to what I said in what way?

patriotz
Member

“If they had half a clue”. They had more than half a clue, they knew full well prices would go up and that’s exactly what they wanted. Whatever you may say about Harper he’s not dumb and he did study economics.

Dave
Member

We can both be right on this. You’re claiming they wanted to juice prices. Sure I’ll buy that.

That doesn’t take away from my point that they didn’t realize it could create a bubble.

Never ascribe to intelligence what can be explained by stupidity.

patriotz
Member

RE pumpers don’t admit to the standard definition of “bubble”, so your point is meaningless.

There was already a bubble, by the standard definition, in Vancouver and Toronto 1.5 years ago.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

and the “standard” definition of a bubble is found in the middle of an 11 year old magazine article by an anonymous author, correct?

gee, i wonder why no one is following the “standard”.

Dave
Member

And that takes away from my point in what way? We don’t have to agree on the definition to agree that valuations are crazy. If I use the term bubble in a colloquial sense, it changes nothing in what I said.

Why do you feel the need to be so pedantic?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

SCAM: SHAMPOO, SOAP, DEODORANT!

the truth is out there!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM2mk-Vf6nw

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

So, THAT’S the kind of stuff you like to look up on You Tube? Why don’t you at least watch old Ozzie and Harriet re-runs instead?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Oh my god you found Squeak. Tell him that when he’s old and farty, he’ll need plenty of soap and shampoo. Haw. Haw. A conspiracy to hype people on homes. Puleeze. An easier explanation is to be found in the records of this blog: bears refused to recognize the globalization occurring right under their noses. Refused. Argued. Obfuscated with logic. So much for logic.

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Great comments.

Weird hack yesterday! Glad that’s resolved.

A signal I am waiting for is FEAR. As measures by a leap in inventory (as yet, absent).

I am of the opinion that the vast majority of vancouverites are unaware of the current slowdown and rule changes and/or are of the belief that the Asian buying will return in the spring.

Bit of a Mexican standoff at present. My bet is that the bear case will prevail.

Perhaps in magnificent proportions.

Dave
Member

I agree that we are in a ‘standoff’. But, I don’t think we get a correction until we see far more listings. At present, 10,000 listings is VERY low. That’s hardly a rush to the exits. We might see some price drops in the data, but until we see volume, I would consider it as noise.

I think listings are really what we want to keep our eyes on. Every year in the last 10 years, we dropped from here until the end of year. If that doesn’t happen (let’s say listings are above 10,000 come December), then that bodes well for the bear case. If listings fall, then I think it bodes well for the bull case.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Once upon a time (Romeo Jordan days) listings at 13,000 were low. It wasn’t fat lady time until it hit 15K-16K.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

You’re absolutely correct. There is nothing on the horizon that will stop this train wreck from happening. It’s a standoff, for now; not at all surprising. After all, who would want to see their “rightful gain” slipping away? But, once it finally sinks in that the party is over, there will be a wringing of hands and a gnashing of teeth.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

wait, is it a standoff or are prices already down 20%? please make up your mind.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

It;s a stand-off for those unwilling to lower their prices. And you’re right…20% it is.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

so let me get this straight. it’s a standoff and crash at the same time?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

I think you prefer it “crooked” rather than “straight”.

Yes.

Newcomer can\'t post
Guest
Newcomer can\'t post

Standoffs happen all the way through crashes because sellers always try and always lose.

squeak
Member
squeak

I think there is a standoff . I also think there is a lot of planning in the board rooms happening now, to play on the psychology of the masses when the spring comes and people are coming out of their winter cocoons. I have a feeling it is going to be a lot of pretending that things are wonderful to get the lemmings going. “Bad” facts are going to be drowned out with song and dance for a while in attempts to get somebody else to hold the hot potato. But given time, the music will slow and fade..
This is going to be interesting to watch. Oh the drama..

Liarsstrike
Member
Liarsstrike

Poloz may do his bit to support prices by driving the loonie down to a 6 handle. This would help foreigners buyers by wiping out the impact of the foreign PTT.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

i think that people are more aware of real estate, HAM, and the foreign buyer tax etc today than they have been at any point in the last 5 years at least.

the proof of this is that politicians are “doing something”. they wouldn’t do anything if people weren’t aware. however these measures are nothing more than PR gimmicks.

meanwhile the developer, political, and environmentalist trinity are pushing density now more than ever. they want to rezone the entire city as high density. this will push the value of single family homes even higher.

every day there are fewer single family homes. they are becoming more and more scarce. so downward force on demand will have to contend with this dwindling supply.

as for condos, who gives a fuck. they are for COCs.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Fewer Single Family Houses?

Y/Y Detached Listings:
Vancouver +30%
Burnaby +44%
North Van + 107%
Richmond + 52%

Condos a different story.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

Confused
Guest
Confused

These dumbasses don’t even know when your trying to help them.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Billy you buying in the pit of fear aye? Not easy to do. Real easy to blog about tho.

DaMann
Member
DaMann

Wake me up when we hit 20,000 inventory. To me that’s my magic marker where i will sit up and take notice. Until then it will be a bit of a stand off and a waiting game. I’m as bearish as they come but everyone talking about price drops means nothing. Comparable SALES haven’t dropped very much at all. Listing prices being slashed means squat. has there been a definite turn in the market? You bet but we have a long way to go before desperation sets in.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

What difference does it make when sales are as low as they are now at thsi currents level of inventory? Price declines are already happening. And, as far as the ultra-high-priced listings go, they might as well not be listed at all since their prices are far too high and aren’t drawing any interest OR bids.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

You can be sure that listings WILL rise far beyond what we a currently sitting at, BTW.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Far? To, say, 13K?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

20,000+

DaMann
Member
DaMann

I’ve watched this market very closely for about 10 years now ( as has everyone here i would suspect) We haven’t had 20k since i sold my place early 2008. There was vicious price declines at that time. Since then no 20k inventory ever and pretty much no price declines either, 2-5% doesn’t even register with me. Just saying for me personally I won’t get excited until then. I have seen too many false starts over the last decade only to be disappointed.

Dave
Member

I agree. It’s all about the inventory. Sales and prices are secondary for the next half year IMO.

If the market is going to roll over, it has to be on big inventory.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

I think large debt loads is what is turning this market down along with 70% home ownership rates (an all-time high in this country).

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Yup.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

What, in your opinion, are the reasons for the MoM and now YoY sales declines then?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

>MoM

winter

Dave
Member

Three reasons.

1. Early sales this year took away from current demand.
2. Low Inventory. People don’t see the product they want because inventory is so low.
3. New Tax. The new tax has probably caused some people to decide to wait it out.

I think of those, number 1 likely has the biggest effect.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well then…

1. If people could afford THOSE prices earlier this year, it doesn’t bode well for now (or later, for that matter) with prices already off 20%)

2. I’m quite certain there is enough “variety” in the inventory out there at the present time across all product lines; SFH, condos, townhouses)

3. The new tax indeed. I agree. Both the foreign buyer’s tax and, more importantly, the new mortgage rules, have the potential to “exclude” a large percentage of buyers, particularly first time buyers.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

3. Unless parents co-sign or cough up more for the DP.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

With many boomers using their houses as “pension plans”, there isn’t that much money to spread around.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

2. As it happens 2 is also the current number of townhouses listed in Van west under $800k. I guess that’s technically variety?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

You are forgetting an important point. Nobody is ever forced to buy anything.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

2008 was when the “correction” actually began. But, Harper and Flaherty goosed the market and the can was kicked down the road to where we are now. IF the market had been ALLOWED to correct back then, we would be seeing far less pain ahead of us as this BIG ONE blows.

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest

No price drop on the west side.
And developers are still buying the lot to flip:
4120 Balaclava St Vancouver just sold, asking $2.2 million.

Sale Date June 12, 2014
Sale Price $1,550,000

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

What’d it sell for?

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

What was the actual sale price?

Simple Solution
Member
Simple Solution

“no price drop on west side”

What are you smoking????

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Hard to make predictions but still very noticeable a shitload of locusts currently cruising downtown streets like scavengers in their flashy cars. A question is what the fuck are they doing if not laundering or flipping?

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

They are just hanging out here and relaxing while their income is generated in China. The rest of us get to work for a living.

Confused
Guest
Confused

They will Be the majority soon.

They live here. Their land.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Agree. The sold updates I get are lower, yes way less is selling, but too many things are still selling for over asking. The benchmark for a good place is still at $1000/sq. ft. which is outrageous. So what if it goes down to $900?

Disgruntled condo owner
Member
Disgruntled condo owner

Move to Ottawa anyone? Where’s all the Chinese money, they don’t like Ottawa? That makes it a rather attractive city to me.
http://www.ottawarealestate.ca/listing/1028157-424-brunskill-way-ottawa-ontario-k2t0b1/

Billybonger
Guest
Billybonger

Agreed, but I think rising listings will be a trailing indicator.

Listings will build as and following price declines.

Rinse and repeat. I think listings surge at the bottom not the top.

This time.

Let’s see when we get to 11,000…

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Very plausible.

Dave
Member

It’s a certainty that listings are higher next Spring compared to present.

I think end of year listings will be an early indicator. If higher than today (say 11,000), it’s a bearish sign. I won’t say bullish if lower, but it’s not a bearish sign.

Confused
Guest
Confused

Trailing indicator?

Hahahaha. Rising listings is a leading indicator. LMAO

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

International student arrested for allegedly threatening to harm teacher

Police says a weapon was seized near the North Vancouver school property

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/international-student-arrested-north-vancouver-school-1.3824682

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Not sure why the RCMP would not have seized his passport. He should have never been allowed to leave the country while facing serious charges.

chilled
Member
chilled

Holy shit Fascist Batman!! Let the courts decide who’s passport gets seized NOT the fucking RCMP.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Fuck that. You come to Canada and threaten your teacher with a gun… then actually have a gun??? Shouldnt even be allowed out on a promise to appear. RCMP should have taken his passport or remanded him into custody until he saw a judge. He was likely released with a promise to appear. Yet he will likely never step foot in Canada again.

chilled
Member
chilled

“Shouldn’t even be allowed out on a promise to appear. RCMP should have taken his passport or remanded him into custody until he saw a judge.” You are totally confused about the role of the courts and the role of the police and are overlapping the two. Dimwits such as yourself on social media scare the hell out of me.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

I have a connection at that school…I’ll get the details…

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Time to ship all of these criminals back.

Kim
Guest
Kim
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

this is how business is done in the sinosphere. HAM has no problem making these kinds of “arrangements”, no problem using credit cards in other people’s names, or buying houses in other people’s names.

that’s why the foreign buyer’s tax is known as the phone a friend tax.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Based on the plummet in detached sales, I guess not too many with friends…

Confused
Guest
Confused

Yeah but prices not crashing. Next months after MCCallum announcement then watch out.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

CBC pricks didn’t make the comments available on that interesting and educational story.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Course not. Doesn’t fit their narratives. Fact they published it at all is surprising.

Dave
Member

Ask for a refund. Can’t believe people are OK with this billion dollar expenditure.

Confused
Guest
Confused

Cbc is not owned by the people anymore even though you pay their bills.

chilled
Member
chilled

I’ve got this overwhelming urge to buy a condo in Bangladesh for some reason.

paulb
Member

New
151
Price Change
69
Sold
140
TI:9913

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Oh, I guess my last theory was wrong…for now.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

ONTH, 140 sales isn’t a lot, is it?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Uh huh.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Hypothesis wrong? Just move the goal posts. A great example of Millennial bear logic (MBL).

Confused
Guest
Confused

Almost 100% sell to list ratio. WTF!?

I thought we had it all figured out. Maybe we’re missing something. Any ideas people?

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

“Sales to Actives” will make you feel better.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Can’t figure out the Chinese.
Time to get the hell out.

would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer

Apparently, there has been a surge of capital flight out of China in the last month. I guess some of it is finding its way here.

would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer
Confused
Guest
Confused

I just had to come back. The naiveness on this blog was getting to me.

Do you guys realize that a decline in sales of detached homes is eventually going to result in pent up demand. People are immigrating here at a record pace.

It’s not about you anymore. TPP,, NAFTA, CETA will make sure you work at $5/HR. Then you will continue with the same delusional Bs that incomes don’t matter match prices.

FYI, 80% of all detached homes in Vancouver will Be owned by visible minirities by 2025. Figure it out.

Confused
Guest
Confused

And I’m Oracle.

Besides Chilled, ALR, and a few others, is there any critical thinkers here?

Hyper-mega-Bear
Guest
Hyper-mega-Bear

Yeah yeah, it’s not what you say that annoys me, it’s that you repeat the same thing over and over. You’re either insane, partially retarded or you’re just trying to scare people into buying your sawdust McMansion. The detached market has ground to a halt, the immigrants will arrive just in time to buy your sawdust for pennies on the dollar. Welcome to Canaduh.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

“Turning a new leaf” are we?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Ugh… Millennials.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Like that one, “partially retarded”.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Can we get an IP ban on Oracle and all of his other personas for spamming?

Repeating the exact same shit 5,000 times is no different than those “I make $576 an hour working online” posts.

space889
Member
space889

But you & your ilks repeating racists hate messages 5000 times is just so different right? Oh wait, it actually is different, cuz it is way worse.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

No other poster makes such frequent demands for IP bans.

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) results

2016-10-27 129 $930,600 $888,000 $42,600 4.58

Lucky 888,000

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Check out the amount of houses up for rent on Craigslist, and imagine the cap rate. This may explain slightly lower listings. Some of these houses have been sitting for over a month and have been reduced. Almost all of them are “available now” and pictures show empty rooms.

I follow Kits vacancies, have for a few years, the lowest amount of listings I’ve ever seen was 160 and the highest was 370 (this Sept and one other time), we are now at 450 listings. Some repeats of course, but there were repeats when we had 160.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

“Teresa” has more than a few listings, some with only 6 month leases (list in spring?) and some using Vansky photos http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5849457096.html

vangrl
Member
vangrl
Ulsterman
Member

I’m surprised at how “reasonable” this one is. 6 bedrooms, good back yard, Dunbar, and both cats and dogs allowed. All for the asking (negotiable?) price of $3600. They’d want over 3k for this house in N Burnaby.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

No interior photos?

Newcomer can\'t post
Guest
Newcomer can\'t post
Ulsterman
Member

For those saying prices aren’t moving down:

R2117325 down twice now for a total cut of 13%.

R2119240. Not sure what this was priced at originally but it was once listed for 2,988,888 and is now $2,698,000. So it’s down 10% from the last known price.

These are North Burnaby listings and i haven’t seen a house sell for weeks.

DDDD
Guest
DDDD

Problem was those peak prices were obscene. Now they’re obscene. But prices way up from 12 months ago.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

They were obscene. True, still would have been better to buy last year, but those gains look shaky now. 20 percent puts all CMHC buyers since Spring underwater and they’re going deeper by the second.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Wrong. LOL. CMHC is irrelevant in Vancouver detached market.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Trouble understanding? Yes all CMHC buyers are underwater now because they had under 20 percent down payment. People like you may not be under water, but are watching their equity evaporate quickly.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

You have no stats!

Ulsterman
Member

A percentage is a percentage. OK, let’s take your assertion that CMHC is irrelevant in Vancouver. If you had $1m in loose change rattling around and decided to buy an average westside beater for $3m (33% down) in March 2016. Now it’s down 20% in 6 months and you’re telling me watching your $1m retirement nest egg shrivel to $400k doesn’t make you wake up in the middle of the night yelling “SHRINKAGE!”?

At the moment there doesn’t appear to be any end in sight, and there’s a good chance that if things keep on going like this until summer. that $1m down payment will be history.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Same thing in the Tricities. Most people are still listing for the prices their neighbours got in Spring, but the few houses that are selling are going for around 20 percent lower.

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

Asking price isn’t selling price. Are selling prices down?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Cherrypicking stats like Garth T.

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