Vacancy Rates almost double 2001

After that irritating interruption from a hack attack, we’re back.

Meanwhile a lot of other people have gone to live somewhere else while they leave houses here empty.  According to this article over at BNN the number of vacant homes in Vancouver has nearly doubled since 2001:

Mayor Gregor Robertson, who has criticized some of Mr. Yan’s tracking of foreign home ownership in his city, said this latest study reinforces his government’s commitment to penalizing those who leave properties vacant.

“Seeing data that demonstrates there may be even more underutilized homes than BC Hydro suggests gives us more reason to aggressively move on the empty homes tax,” Mr. Robertson told The Globe and Mail Tuesday.

“We certainly hear, anecdotally, concerns about empty homes in various neighbourhoods, and now the body of evidence is building, so that helps.”

The B.C. government passed legislation in the summer allowing Vancouver to impose a tax on empty homes, which the city argues are taking up housing that could be rented out.

The province has said it will consider similar requests from other cities.

Read the full article here.

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[…] –Post-tax foreign buyers 1.3% –Housing market problems –CMHC issues warning –Whats the magic inventory number? –Real estate trends –No rate cut for Canada –CMHC plays catch up on warnings – […]

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
3 years ago
ostritch
ostritch
3 years ago

Interesting. Thanks for posting.

Just me
Just me
3 years ago

Here we go, the onslaught is starting again

http://www.reuters.com/article/unionpay-regs-idUSL4N1CZ049

Unionpay, which said it had seen a “significant increase in overseas insurance transactions via cards issued from mainland China”, added that the rules underlined existing regulations.

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago

Oracle posting count indicator is off the charts! Sales were up for a bit when he took a couple of days off, but the market is surely crashing now.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Confucius

Sure whatever you say.

McCallum is in India next week.
425,000 is the immigration number I’m hearing.

patriotz
3 years ago

Vancouver condo sells ($438,800) to buyer who intends to rent it out (est. $1700/month)
So that’s negative cash flow from the outset, and it would be negative taxable income if full CCA were applied, but CCA can’t be used to create a tax loss. So only partial CCA applied for net zero taxable income. But it’s a real loss because depreciation is real.

YVR
YVR
3 years ago
Reply to  patriotz

Looks like condos are going down too.

This corner one-bedroom unit with den was originally on the market for $488,000 but after a month it received no offers. Listing agent Bryan Yan says he showed it to at least 30 parties, but it was priced too high. When he lowered it to $438,800, he got two offers for the full price. .“I found it astonishing; 30 groups coming through and no offers,” says Mr. Yan. “Before the 15-per-cent foreign-buyer tax, I could have sold this for $468,000, easily. But after 30 showings, you know what the market is telling us – the market is not great.”

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  patriotz

You have these guys tapped around your finger. Impressive.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

*wrapped

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Going rate is 10K. That’s why so many bad drivers out there.

chilled
chilled
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

This article is from 2004, are you high?

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  chilled

Hahaha. Gotta love people like you. No, it doesnt happen anymore. LMAO #clueless

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago

YVR has gone on record saying inventory will hit 20,000 by March. 123 days away…

Let’s see

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago

The racist attacks have to stop on this blog.

FYI, we Asians and South Asians will vastly outnumber you in 10-20 years. Get used to it.

I forgot you want to complain, direct it at the politicians you elect. Sunny ways!

patriotz
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

“we Asians and South Asians”

As if all these ethnic groups didn’t dislike each other. Some “we”.

YVR
YVR
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Lets hope there are enough dump truck driver jobs to keep all those South Asians working. Otherwise not looking good for Surrey sawdust house prices. With the cab driver jobs and paper routes in decline already not looking good.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  YVR

Racists like you won’t have a place in the new Vancouver that’s shaping up nicely. Where you gonna flee to?

southseacompany
southseacompany
3 years ago

“Foreign buyers 1.3 per cent of Vancouver-region real estate sales since tax”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/foreign-buyers-13-per-cent-of-vancouver-region-real-estate-sales-since-tax/article32572605/

“The influence of foreign buyers on the Vancouver region’s real estate market remains at levels far below what they were before the introduction of a new tax, with purchasers who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents accounting for only 1.3 per cent of the total deals closed in August and September, according to the B.C. government.”

YVR
YVR
3 years ago

“Foreign buyers 1.3 per cent of Vancouver-region real estate sales since tax”

RE deals signed pretax that completed Aug to Oct count in those months. I bet most of these sales were initiated pre tax. Many people cashing out want long completion dates.

patriotz
3 years ago
Reply to  YVR

Well what they really want is long move out dates. I wonder how many of those closings rushed before Aug 2 contain provisions for the seller to stay for a while after closing. Seller gets the money now, buyer saves the tax – win win.

No Money Down
No Money Down
3 years ago
Reply to  patriotz

Patriotz what evidence is there for a pulling forward of closings to beat the Aug 2 date? The FBT was announced July 25, not a lot of time to organize a rush closing.

July 2016 detached sales were down 30% m/m and y/y, so no indication of a massive pulling forward of sales.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago

Why is it that space and shut it down always seem to go on holidays at the same time and then re-appear simultaneously?

The blog became far more civil in their absence, now I’m sure they’ll instigate and agitate to the point where it goes down the toilet again.

space889
space889
3 years ago

Speak for yourself there buddy.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  space889

Did you two lovebirds have a nice week off together?

Left the blog together last Friday, returned together this Friday.

Oh never mind, it’s probably just coincidence but you should both leave permanently and take Oracle with you next time.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Hyper-mega-Bull
3 years ago
Reply to  MarKoz

But I’m sure they won’t evade the foreign buyer’s tax.

In the Chinese community there are professionals who’s job it is to commit fraud. Everyone knows what they do but Chinese follow their own set of rules. It is a parallel society.

Combat roach
Combat roach
3 years ago

It’s called organized crime.

space889
space889
3 years ago

You mean people pays tens of thousands to accounting firms & law firms to set up those Caymen Island offshore bank accounts are just following the law and doing what’s ethical to protect their wealth??

chilled
chilled
3 years ago
Reply to  MarKoz

I think I just heard BPOM’s head explode.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  chilled

As far as our country is concerned, this barely human trash from china is worse than ISIS.

space889
space889
3 years ago

And yet, they are still better human beings than you….that’s the really sad part….

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  MarKoz

“All three have pleaded guilty to immigration offences, fraud and falsely claiming tax refunds.”

Par for the course when it comes to mainland vermin infesting Canada.

That country and it’s culture disgusts me to no end, they really believe our rules don’t apply to them which makes them completely incompatible with our society.

Investigate them all, every single fucking commie chinese coming here since at least 2005. I guarantee if that happens then the vast majority will be found to have committed a criminal offense either on their immigration application, or after they arrived or both – enough to warrant a prison sentence or deportation.

Combat roach
Combat roach
3 years ago

Fraud, lies, scams, deception are the pillars of their religion. Sick, addictive fanatic religion they preach wherever they go…

space889
space889
3 years ago
Reply to  Combat roach

Child molesters, children pornography, sex crazyed serial killers, gay killers, world famous stock fraud center….i say Canada is certainly punching above its weight in certain areas too….

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago

Why be such a racist? It’s your politicians that you elect that are asking the world to come thru lax immigration policies.

Blame them.

Just me
Just me
3 years ago

Very sad to hear our new BC senator releasing interviews and effectively arguing that the tax on real estate transactions by foreigneirs is antichinese (he did not say so explicitly but that much was clear). Yet another one failing to grasp that this is not about race, but about the endless flow of dodgy money.
When I see this level of partisanship based on race and belonging, I feel Canada has failed . The real racists are those who use these arguments to condone the breakup of the rule of law.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  Just me

I listened to him on the radio yesterday, same old shit bringing up racism and whining about mainlanders being unfairly portrayed as corrupt, money-laundering tax evaders.

When faced with overwhelming evidence these fuckers resort to race-baiting right on cue.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
3 years ago

What evidence exactly? Or are you just going to pull out some anecdotal news articles again?

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago

Good one, Baghdad Bob!

space889
space889
3 years ago

You really shouldn’t always congratulate yourself…it looks lame.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
3 years ago

No evidence then? Gotcha.

xyz
xyz
3 years ago
Reply to  Just me

Hong Kong has a similar tax….and it is part of China last time I checked…..

BubbleTea
BubbleTea
3 years ago
Reply to  Just me

I am Chinese and the law does not discriminate against my race, in fact, I don’t think it goes far enough! Vancouver is for Vancouverites first, foreigners last.

space889
space889
3 years ago
Reply to  BubbleTea

You seriously think all the RE issues are caused by actual foreigners buying up RE?? Gosh you are stupid like BPOM. Maybe you should be his new buttboy.

There is foreign money and there is foreign buyers, try to understand the difference. And I’m sure Manitoba housing price went up 300% is also because of HAM money.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  space889

It’s caused by immigrants who are no easy permanent residents or citizens that have wealth stashed overseas AND is hidden from the CRA.

They are buying 2nd 3rd etc homes.

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago
Reply to  space889

“you are stupid”

“you should be his new buttboy”

As I said, the tone of the blog was much more civil when space took a week off, and will now go downhill fast with his unfortunate return.

And I don’t expect admin to follow up on his hollow threat “personal attacks and insults to other posters will get you an IP ban.”.

Nope, just talk.

paulb
paulb
3 years ago

New
116
Price Change
59
Sold
74
TI:9901

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago

This is “WHAT IF” post.

What happens if this is the extent (or 5% more) of declines for detached homes? MSM has already started to throw around the notion that working class people won’t be able to ever buy detached homes here.

What happens then?

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

WHAT IF you kept your promise and stayed off this site?

Best place on meth
Best place on meth
3 years ago

It’ll never happen.

He’s like Hillary and herpes – just when you think they’re gone for good, they make another unwanted appearance.

dyugle
dyugle
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

The working people all leave, the market crashes but there is nothing left of the pre bubble economy so we become Atlantic City. Maybe Trump tower can be turned into a casino.

UBC in Crisis Mode
3 years ago

There are still money to be made by flipping:
http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?MLS=R2117102&REBoards=All&From=MLS
Lot purchase: $3.7 million
Construction: $1 million
Asking $13 million +
Profit!

Ktown
Ktown
3 years ago

Dont be a fool. That house was an easy 3m to construct – at least!

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
3 years ago
Reply to  Ktown

How is this a valid example when you’re referencing ‘asking price’? This seems to be a common theme with your posts.

YVR
YVR
3 years ago

If there was money to be made you would think all those westside building lots and teardowns would be selling? What is holding you and everyone else back from making all this easy money?

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  YVR

Sell and go where?

People know this market will be much higher in 5-10 years for detached homes. Thats why no rush to the exits. Anywhere else and inventory would have exploded by now.

YVR
YVR
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

I know you are a little thick so I will spell it out for you. There are plenty of SFHs lots for sale on the westside and none are selling. If it was so easy to buy a lot, build a house and then sell it for $13M then what is holding you back? Sorry I don’t literally mean you I mean others with cash and credit. Not Surrey sawdust house builders who drive dump trucks.

YVR
YVR
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

“Anywhere else and inventory would have exploded by now.”

Inventory is over 40% higher now than your prediction of 7000. That seems significant to me. Prices are down over 20% in a few months. Annualize that and it is a crash no question. Inventory will hit 20,000 by early Spring.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
3 years ago
Reply to  YVR

He didn’t predict 7000 inventory, he predicted a “7k party”. That’s 7999 or lower.

Boombust
Boombust
3 years ago

Sales to foreign buyers in Metro Vancouver in September amounted to 1.8% of all sales according to gov’t stats released today.

Donald T
Donald T
3 years ago
Reply to  Boombust

1.8% too much.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Boombust

And what percentage to recent Permanent Residents from China. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th homes purchased with illicit money from the mainland?

I’m betting about 25%. 50% in Vancouver. 60% in Burnaby and Richmond.

Until there is a huge tax on 2nd homes or CRA enforces its policies, nothing gonna change.

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

It already changed

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago

Wrong. There would have been a rush to the exits. Instead, we have record low inventory into the 4th month of changes.

People are not rushing to the exits cause they expect this market to go higher over the medium term.

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Lol, detached is not at record low inventory. People aren’t rushing because most don’t realize what’s going on.

Bag it and tag it
Bag it and tag it
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

denial helps you sleep at night, huh?

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago
Reply to  Boombust

That’s a fair amount of buyers paying the “Phone a friend tax.” I guess their friends told them to pay up.

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago

Whoa. Surrey MOI up to 10.78. If prices haven’t fallen as Oracle has said, they will.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Confucius

Hopefully prices fall by $300,000. So far have fallen by about $60,000 for detached.

YVR
YVR
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

$60,000 in the past 3 months or $20K per month. That is before the new CMHC rules. It will take another 12 months to be down $300K in Surrey. What will Surry look like in 36 months?

36 months x $20K per month = $720K loss from peak.

Ouch. That is a lot of $ to trim off a sawdust house.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  YVR

Oh please. Your analysis is saying a $900,000 house wil go to $180,000. LMAO

Any credibility left to on this blog?!

Sebastien
Sebastien
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Some postal codes in Phoenix crashed 80% between 2007-2012.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Sebastien

So they must here to? LMAO

Been to Phoenix many times son and they have so much land. Low density. Not a condo to be seen.

Very different from vancouver.

funky monkey
funky monkey
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Low density here also!

Boombust
Boombust
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Yeah. Butt ugly, too. Except, maybe, Scottsdale.

Combat roach
Combat roach
3 years ago
Reply to  Sebastien

You can’t compare Phoenix and Surrey. Surrey is in pair with Queens or Greenwich Village (NYC) and Pacific Heights (SF).

Simple Solution
Simple Solution
3 years ago
Reply to  Combat roach

Oh, yeah. Surrey is “in pair” with Queens or Greenwich Village and Pacific Heights. Maybe the MOST moronic statement ever made on this blog. Obviously have never been to any of those places….

No Money Down
No Money Down
3 years ago

I would say it’s the most “ironic” statement ever made on this blog.

Combat roach
Combat roach
3 years ago

Lol!

Ulsterman
3 years ago
Reply to  Combat roach

It’s OK Combat Roach, I got it even if some of the more literal readers didn’t. They may need that worst of all assists – .

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

They just love to extrapolate, don’t they?

Donald T
Donald T
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

i thought you will go? can’t keep your words for more than a weeK?

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Donald T

Words don’t matter. Prices do on this blog.

Donald T
Donald T
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

call your mother, you need love and compassion. you are looking at the wrong places, won’t find it here.

space889
space889
3 years ago

Well, there goes the neighborhood…fing foreign money

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/michael-buble-burnaby-mansion-photos

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  space889

He must be crazy, right? Prices gonna crash 80%. LOL

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Nope, his net worth is 60 million so he can afford it. People throwing all their net worth into houses during the spring, not so much.

Oracle.
Oracle.
3 years ago

Another thing you guys might not want to hear:

China capitals outflows at record highs. They want to go to Australia, Canada, Britain, and New Zealand.

Britain: reducing immigration to 100,000
USA: Cant immigrate your parents along with you, tight money maundering laws.
Australia, Canada, and New Zealand only places to go.

YVR = Ground zero.

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle.

That explains the records sales the past few months, lol, whatever helps you sleep at night.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Confucius

isn’t it prices you should be concerned about?

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

No, I’m happy about them going down. You should be concerned.

Newcomer can\'t post
Newcomer can\'t post
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle.

What does record highs imply about future levels?

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago

Absolutely nothing!. what does flipping tails on a quarter 3 times in a row imply about the fourth flip?

Newcomer-can\'t-post
Newcomer-can\'t-post
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Ah, I see. You are under the impression that markets are random. That explains a lot. Thank you.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
3 years ago

That’s not what he said. He said that future prices aren’t a function of past prices. Which is true – otherwise you’d have seen the crash by now that’s been called for the last 10 years.

Ulsterman
3 years ago

For those saying prices aren’t moving down:

R2117325 down twice now for a total cut of 13%.

R2119240. Not sure what this was priced at originally but it was once listed for 2,988,888 and is now $2,698,000. So it’s down 10% from the last known price.

These are North Burnaby listings and i haven’t seen a house sell for weeks.

DDDD
DDDD
3 years ago
Reply to  Ulsterman

Problem was those peak prices were obscene. Now they’re obscene. But prices way up from 12 months ago.

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago
Reply to  DDDD

They were obscene. True, still would have been better to buy last year, but those gains look shaky now. 20 percent puts all CMHC buyers since Spring underwater and they’re going deeper by the second.

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Confucius

Wrong. LOL. CMHC is irrelevant in Vancouver detached market.

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

Trouble understanding? Yes all CMHC buyers are underwater now because they had under 20 percent down payment. People like you may not be under water, but are watching their equity evaporate quickly.

funky monkey
funky monkey
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

You have no stats!

Ulsterman
3 years ago
Reply to  Oracle

A percentage is a percentage. OK, let’s take your assertion that CMHC is irrelevant in Vancouver. If you had $1m in loose change rattling around and decided to buy an average westside beater for $3m (33% down) in March 2016. Now it’s down 20% in 6 months and you’re telling me watching your $1m retirement nest egg shrivel to $400k doesn’t make you wake up in the middle of the night yelling “SHRINKAGE!”?

At the moment there doesn’t appear to be any end in sight, and there’s a good chance that if things keep on going like this until summer. that $1m down payment will be history.

Confucius
Confucius
3 years ago
Reply to  Ulsterman

Same thing in the Tricities. Most people are still listing for the prices their neighbours got in Spring, but the few houses that are selling are going for around 20 percent lower.

Lurker
Lurker
3 years ago
Reply to  Ulsterman

Asking price isn’t selling price. Are selling prices down?

Oracle
Oracle
3 years ago
Reply to  Ulsterman

Cherrypicking stats like Garth T.

vangrl
vangrl
3 years ago

Check out the amount of houses up for rent on Craigslist, and imagine the cap rate. This may explain slightly lower listings. Some of these houses have been sitting for over a month and have been reduced. Almost all of them are “available now” and pictures show empty rooms.

I follow Kits vacancies, have for a few years, the lowest amount of listings I’ve ever seen was 160 and the highest was 370 (this Sept and one other time), we are now at 450 listings. Some repeats of course, but there were repeats when we had 160.

vangrl
vangrl
3 years ago
Reply to  vangrl

“Teresa” has more than a few listings, some with only 6 month leases (list in spring?) and some using Vansky photos http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/5849457096.html

Ulsterman
3 years ago
Reply to  vangrl

I’m surprised at how “reasonable” this one is. 6 bedrooms, good back yard, Dunbar, and both cats and dogs allowed. All for the asking (negotiable?) price of $3600. They’d want over 3k for this house in N Burnaby.

Shut It Down Already
Shut It Down Already
3 years ago
Reply to  Ulsterman

No interior photos?

Oh NO
Oh NO
3 years ago

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) results

2016-10-27 129 $930,600 $888,000 $42,600 4.58

Lucky 888,000