Usually we post this as a Friday Free-for-all, but we’re a day late this time.
It’s our open topic discussion thread for the weekend!
Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
–Post-tax foreign buyers 1.3%
–Housing market problems
–CMHC issues warning
–Whats the magic inventory number?
–Real estate trends
–No rate cut for Canada
–CMHC plays catch up on warnings
–
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!
[…] Yvr2zrh posted a snapshot summary for what’s currently going on in the market: […]
“Toronto home prices jump 21%, putting sales at record high”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-house-sales-prices-1.3834367
“October was another hot month for the Toronto area’s residential real estate market, with the number of sales hitting a record high and prices soaring by double-digits.”
So – Here are some interesting takeaways from the numbers yesterday. 1.) Across Canada, you saw the impact of the mortgage rule announcements. Markets most likely to be affected by this rule change saw a spike in transactions. 2.) REBGV region is likely going to be the only region in Canada which saw a transaction volume decrease from September to October. This shows how soft it is. 3.) In REBGV – The components outside the 15% tax zone had the lowest sales decrease for detached (VWS, VIS, VMR, VSC). 4.) Zones with most concentrated foreign investment are having largest volume decreases. West Van leads with Burnaby and Richmond coming up next. Van West Detached had a pretty good month, comparatively. (Perhaps the tax auditors will start to pull apart those transactions to find some GAAR violations for the new taxes!).… Read more »
I can’t give an up-vote from an iPad, so I’ll say thanks instead. Thanks!
“Vancouver Home Prices Drop Noticeably For The 1st Time In 4 Years”, Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/11/02/vancouver-home-prices_n_12774434.html
“You did it, Vancouver.
Your benchmark home price has finally taken a noticeable fall — down to $919,300, the fourth-highest it’s been in four years, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
That’s a decrease of about 0.8 per cent from September. However, it’s still a 24.8 per cent increase from the same month last year.”
Dropped just as much in Sept.
Recheck the stats, they were jus backtracked and updated by rebgv.
Bullshit corruption.
Bastards just outdid themselves again at the top level. Stealing design, cheating, falsifying and manufacturing fake goods like clothes, bags and sunglasses is apparently not enough? Unfuckingbelievable…
Separated At Birth? China’s J-20 Stealth Jet Looks Just Like MiG Prototype
Read more: https://sputniknews.com/military/201611021047001359-china-j20-russia-mig-144/
Actually they’ve been copying military/aviation designs from the Russians ever since Mao broke with Khrushchev. Just desserts since the Russians have been copying Western designs since Stalin’s time. Copying consumer goods is a latecomer.
“Home sales continue to plummet in October across Metro Vancouver: REBGV”, Business in Vancouver
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/11/home-sales-continue-plummet-october-across-metro-v/
“Vancouver home sales down 39% in October”, CBC News
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-esate-down-1.3833789
“The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says home sales plunged 38.8 per cent last month compared with October 2015.”
Yatter showing YOY 0%. Wasn’t it +30% in the summer. Inventory is also interesting.
http://www.yattermatters.com/2016/11/vancouver-real-estate-says-call-someone-cares/#more-40490
https://mobile.twitter.com/cduhaime
Read down to her points 1-10. Locals r kinda effed if true.
That’s ugly…
We live in a dictatorship. Banks and Big Corps control gov policy. T2 is the faux “dictator”.
REBGV admits mistake in numbers for September. Decline bigger than originally reported… go figure… someone called them on it.
Correction Notice: This report was revised on November 2, 2016 to correct a calculation error in our MLS Home Price Index® benchmark prices for September 2016. This error resulted in variances of between 0.1 and 5 per cent in the benchmark prices the REBGV released on October 4, 2016
They’re still lying.
Today’s stats have east Van detached STILL over 1.5 million, only down 1.3% from last month.
This is garbage, nothing is selling that high.
Report on CTV news tonight 66 detached sold in East Van for October. Lowest sales in last 10 years. Even lower than 2008.
Even 66 seems like a lot.
What a joke.
Can’t trust those guys.
It was me who informed them first . . There were some glaring statistically impossible amounts they had presented so I called them on it. Specifically, in Richmond – the benchmark of all the property categories had a fall in price. However, the composite for Richmond showed prices had increased. Seemed impossible (I know how they made the mistake but it was still inexcusable). I’m sure they went back to the drawing board to come up with a new way to compute the indexes which were being impacted by massive mix changes between detached and apartment as well as regional mix changes.
New
192
Price Change
58
Sold
112
TI:9617
Wheeeeee!
Vancouver home sales plummet almost 40% as wary buyers wait out rapidly changing market
Nobody is buying in Vancouver because of rapidly changing market conditions, partially brought on by government regulation, say Vancouver realtors who reported Wednesday that sales were off 38.8 per cent in October from a year ago.
There were 2,233 residental sales in the region last month, down from 3,646 a year ago, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Sales were down 0.9 per cent from September. October sales were 15 per cent below the 10-year average for the month.
15% below average is not really a big deal.
Inertia. The same as any type of motion, when changing the direction of movement.
15% below the 10 yr average. I bet its 30%+ below the 3 yr average.
“Poloz Gets No Relief From Trudeau in Infrastructure Plan”, Bloomberg
“Canada’s stimulus ball is back in Stephen Poloz’s court.”
“Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s fiscal update Tuesday provided no new immediate spending measures, potentially leaving the central bank governor alone in combating any further weakening of Canada’s economy.”
““From a monetary policy perspective, this tilts the odds in favor of further monetary easing, though we still consider this to be a tail risk at this time,””
He won’t cut again. He’s already talked about the housing bubble and has acknowledged that people are making a link to the Bank.
He doesn’t want to own the fallout of a crash. It’s a hot potato.
“A sales executive at Yuwo Capital, which helps Chinese invest in or migrate to the United States, said it has seen a rise in client enquiries recently, with some bringing forward their U.S. investment plans due to depreciation fears. He asked not to be identified.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-yuan-outflows-analysis-idUSKBN12X0T7
A serious government would protect us all fom this wall of money in search of safe heaven. But Christy and her band are not in the business of protecting us.
Vancouver has Dutch disease: we “export” safe deposit boxes for scared mainlanders. And our government actually likes it!
Why do we need to be protected against money coming into the country? Don’t we have whole industries and government departments trying to bring money into the country? The Chinese government wants to stop the outflow. Are our interests that same as theirs?
If this money wasn’t being spent on residential RE, would anybody have a problem with it? That’s what needs fixing.
Yes. Money that generates investment in sustainabke longterm industries would be most welcome. Parking money in unproductive safe deposit boxes (homes) does not qualify as productive investment. Even more important, it is no way to plan long term economic development.
Of course some groups benefit from it (RE agents, lawyers, construction) but this is a temporary gain with a long term loss attached.
These chinese millionaires have no intention to set up businesses here: too expensive and regulated fir them. They use us like a safe deposit bix, making life impossible for all those who actually want to work/produce long term here.
I should also remind readers that, while beneficial to many intermediaries, all this money from mainland China is of dubious origin and in clear contravention of money transfer limits in that country as well as in Canada.
But hey, money is money. People will take it, damn the consequences…
Canada has no restrictions, other then reporting, on the transfer of any amount of money into or out of the country. China’s restrictions are just another form of state intervention in the economy so they can unfairly compete against the West. If a country that jails defense lawyers and clergy can’t get the will to put their bankers in line, that’s their problem.
Right, and until local people do not stand against such practice and oust the locust swarms away this country will go nowhere but backward. Tragic…
Umm, the money goes to the seller of the property. And that person is local, right?
Then the seller moves to the island or somewhere affordable, pockets the difference and disappears.
That housing unit is now inaccessible to local income earners.
Private gain, social loss. In fact the loss should also account for the fact that unaffordable housing makes hiring and retaining workers a nightmare for local companies (and I am not even mentioning commuting costs).
The fact is: land is a finite stock. Once it is removed from the market, there is no way to replenish it. This is not your textbook capital, that can be reproduced at will.
Of course, one could build towers: good luck convincing SFH owners to accept rezoning.
but the seller puts the money in the bank at 0% interest and pays the bank monthly fees for the privilege of doing so and the banks turn around and buy debt of growing industries.
the problem might be that there really arent any viable industries in canada.
The overall, cumulative damage impacting the entire region and society is not comparable to individual benefit of a minority who scored a trade with a foreigner or fugitive that has no interest in the local ecosystem and its future whatsoever.
Individual? What happened to “trickle down”?
The point here is that we are trading away a nin-renewable resource. When we have sold the last plot of land to,the chinese investors, what business do we have left? Cutting the hair and doing the nails of our rich residents?
That’s a good point. Canada has a real shortage of land. I can see us running out any day now, especially as we are giving it away at bargain prices.
“When we have sold the last plot of land to,the chinese investors…”
Drama queen.
Posted already, but title is worth of reposting…
It Begins: TD Bank Raises Mortgage Rates…
Don’t say the banks didn’t warn you: mortgage rates are on the rise in the wake of the federal Liberals’ tightening of mortgage rules.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/11/01/td-bank-mortgage-rate-new-mortgage-rules_n_12754620.html
For owners who bought either below or within their means, it’s time to ramp up those pre-payments. For those who went all in on mutliple properties leveraged to the hilt, about time to feel some pain.
2.79% 5yr never again?
Now sure, but I’m on hold with TD right now to ask what their fixed rate is. Why is TD always “experiencing longer than anticipated wait times”, like an hour? You’d think by now they would anticipate it, LOL.
Voice recordings can be really dumb. They dumb us all down. It’s better in the long run to interact more with people and less with machines.
rates are going to consistently stay below inflation so its pointless to prepay these cheap loans.
Police: Speed a factor in fatal car accident early Sunday morning
Holly shit… Driver of that Audi R8 must be the similar shitbag as Chinese student idiot who rear-ended a friend of mine while “driving” and texting his mother’s 300K Coupe with “N” sticker at the back. I saw the idiot and I wouldn’t trust him to take elevator to get to the second floor let alone driving a performance car in inhabited territory.
I see so many of these — N sticker plus 200,000 dollar or more car — getting into an accident, causing an accident. I saw one just Saturday night. Well, this car was only an 90.000 dollar car.
I really wish these wouldn’t cause all of our rates to go up but I bet they do. Not to mention all the traffic jams due to double parking, uturns in the wrong places, and not to mention all the wasted parking places — people taking up two parking places claiming they need the space to get out of the parking place if you call them on it.
True, to have so many of them driving cars in the city with relatively limited infrastructure is equivalent to natural disaster. Interestingly all issues caused by them are of a large scale due to their numbers ang complete lack of sense of space and others in it. Sometimes I wonder are we becoming another verbatim shithole based on the original?
from the picture it looks like the civic turned left and got struck by the audi. still not relevant to this blog.
It’s relevant if the situation is an effect of housing policies, which it surely is.
New
212
Price Change
70
Sold
110
TI:9597
Paul,
Your numbers don’t add up.
Yes they do. End of month expiries!
“Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged Wednesday; primed for possible December hike”, BNN
“The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but set the stage for a hike in December amid signs the economy is picking up steam.”
“TD boosts some mortgage rates in wake of new housing rules”, Globe & Mail
“One of Canada’s largest banks is raising rates on some of its mortgages amid tighter federal mortgage-insurance rules and mounting concerns about soaring home prices.”
“Toronto-Dominion Bank said it has increased its prime rate for variable-rate mortgages by 15 basis points, to 2.85 per cent from 2.7 per cent, starting on Tuesday.”
Yup, my variable went from 2.05 to 2.20% overnight. Funny thing is, I can only lock in for a 4 or 5 year as maturity date is 4 years out. The rate on that is 2.39/2.49. Still very low. Still, I’m now paying about 70 dollars more a month on my mortgage. And that’s only with a 0.15% increase!
This is only the beginning. I’ve been frantically paying off my mortgage the past few months, bracing for this. Those who’ve over extended are in big trouble.
Kim are you sure TD is offering a 5 yr fixed at 2.49%? If so I would grab it.
That’s what my financial advisor told me. They are still advertising a 2.39 4 year fixed on their website.
Anywho… look at this. My buddy is convinced it’s arson. He knows the house. HAM owned and vacant for years. He is CONVINCED this will become a trend among HAMsters who don’t want to settle for less money.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3037607/fire-breaks-out-at-massive-16m-home-in-vancouver/?sf40600898=1
Insurance won’t pay on an empty house
That’s absurd. If you’re covered you’re covered.
Check the policy. Most times the house must be occupied for coverage.
Most policies require someone to check the house inside and out every 4 weeks if you are out of town for longer than that. If you don’t you are SOL.
YVR that is correct however for many policies this is not sufficient. A place left vacant for more than 30 regardless of if it being checked on is not covered with Intact I know for a fact. I would assume most others are the same.
HAM who leave places empty think they are pulling a fast one on the insurance companies. They are not. If the place burns they ask A LOT of questions.
No they wont…. House needs to be occupied unless of course they had a special policy for a vacant house, Highly unlikely given the HAM ownership.
This is sort of what I was getting at. Surely there must be insurance for properties that are left unattended. Whether a person opts for that specific insurance is another matter. That’s what I meant about “if you’re covered you’re covered” But i see your point.
Wife and I are both mainland Chinese but she is of the poor variety. Parents still rent, mom makes less than minimum wage at a factory here in North America. When I told her this story, she just said, stupid Chinese. When they come back, at least they will have a 10 million dollar plot of dirt to call home.
Probably some local douchebag playing with fireworks.
I think the real point here is that insurance companies will only pay to rebuild. They will not just hand the owner a cash payout since they understand that’s an incentive to torch the place. At their option they will make a payout where there’s no economic reason to rebuild and the cause of the fire is beyond suspicion, e.g. Ft. McMurray.
Anyone know what happened to 10751 Southdale Road, Richmond. Sold for? Off market?
David Eby takes centre court in the fight for affordable housing
http://www.bcbusiness.ca/David-Eby-takes-centre-court-in-the-fight-for-affordable-housing
Awkward correlation between multicultural society and crime scene…
“Multiple stabbing at Plaza of Nations”
Roach, problem starts when you marry your close relative of yours. You still have time, just stop breeding.
“LIVE: Housing and debt risks best addressed by government, rates blunt tool: Poloz”, CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stephen-poloz-inflation-targets-1.3830924
“Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says risks from household debt and the housing market will be better addressed by the government’s recent policy moves than by adjusting interest rates. In a speech in Vancouver, the head of Canada’s central bank says adjusting interest rates is a “very blunt tool” that has widespread effects”
“Household debt levels have hit record levels in recent years and housing markets have boomed, helped by low interest rates that have allowed consumers to borrow cheaply”