BC, data, economy, prices, supply

Houses selling at a loss

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198 Comments

The great real estate market pause of 2016 seems to be creating some losses out there. Southseacompany pointed out this article that finds 3 homes selling for less than they were purchased for:

Vancouver real estate often gets hailed for excellent returns, but this one has us scratching our head. Three single family detached homes have listed for less than the owners paid for them. The kicker? They were all purchased less than 8 months ago. Is this the beginning of the end for Vancouver’s market or are we just insanely good at finding deals? Check out the listings and you can decide.

The rough estimated losses on those properties range from $73k to $125k if they sell for asking. View all three listings over at BetterDwelling.

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[…] House prices never go down in Vancouver, except when they do. […]

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vangrl

Listings are also in this section of craigslist, flag these as well
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/search/apa?query=polina&availabilityMode=0

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

She keeps shifting the category. Where next? Casual encounters?

Really though. Anything in sublets that is gleaming new staged to the hilt is just another version of Airbnb. #FLAG

I also have half a mind to flag all the “homestay” ads in shared section. That’s another business that is not paying taxes. Plus it’s racist and ageist and sexist as they all seem to want “female international students” only. #flaghomestays

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vangrl

I’ll flag any I see, others do the same!

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/search/roo?query=homestay&availabilityMode=0

#flaghomestays

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

295 listings on Craigslist for homestays. Almost every ad specifying young female international students.

If they made those rooms/spaces available to locals, it would really help the rental crisis!

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Oracle

The 1% vacancy tax will release more supply.

Which be accounted for in a matter of a few months via new arrivals to Canada. Then what?

Hahaha. They playing the naive.

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bullwhip29

Imagine the $hitstorm this would cause if such a plan were floated in Canada…

Australia Should Scrap Big-Denomination Bank Notes, UBS Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-13/australia-should-follow-india-and-scrap-big-bank-notes-ubs-says

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Best place on meth

It’s always a great idea to follow India’s lead……said no country ever.

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Oracle

You think you live in a country less corrupt than India?

Hahaha. Naiveness is killing me.

You live in a fascist state dude.

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Combat roach

Do you know what fascism is, just asking?

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Best place on meth

“You think you live in a country less corrupt than India?”

I’m now convinced that you’re not only a compulsive liar, but also psychotic and brain damaged.

Please go now, and come again!

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Funky monkey

Oracle I believe you may have been born in India and came here as a child.
Some of my best work friends are from India they talk much different than you. They are all housing bulls and have offered to lend me money for a down payment. They never talk of rich people coming here from India. They were all poor when they came to Canada and now are wealthy.
Just like my ancestors.
Some of them see the tides turning.

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YVR

It has actually be floated around in both US and Europe already. At some point large bills will be gone. Gold will be the only option.

The Plot to Kill the $100 Bill
former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers is calling for a global agreement by monetary authorities to stop issuing notes worth more than $50 or $100.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-plot-to-kill-the-100-bill-1455667926

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/need-know-overseas-investors-scooping-torontos-skyline/

Looks like Toronto has a different class of foreign investors.

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Best place on meth

Still seeing Hot Asian Money and Hot African Money.

They all look like they’re laundering.

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vangrl

We may get a listing splurge sooner than Jan 1st, with people thinking American Trump haters are going to storm here to buy properties (they aren’t)

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Boombust

I think most people are thinking that is now a dead duck.

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Oracle

Another naive post.

Americans/Mexicans coming here will push rents up.

Locals that own know prices going up medium/long term. It’s a Numbers game. They not going to list. Where they going to go????

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Best place on meth

Alec Baldwin promised to leave the US in 2000 if Bush was elected.

He was full of shit like all the other crybabies who stamp their feet when they don’t get the president they want.

Ironic that his American-based ass has been doing a pretty hilarious job portraying Trump on SNL.

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YVR

Dave Chappelle on Saturday Night Live regarding leaving the US due to Trump winning. “I think I will be sticking around to take advantage of that 15% tax cut.”

These lefty celebrities will be campaigning for Trump in 2020 once they get a taste of lower taxes.

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Absolute flood of new listings in sublets category on Craigslist since Airbnb removed 130 listings. It’s getting interesting.

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vangrl

Flag Polina’s listings , I think it just takes 5 flags for them to be removed. I hate these guys using locals to fill in on AirBnb off months
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/search/sub?query=polina&availabilityMode=0

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vangrl

definitely STR company , all listings are on here as well http://www.booking.com/hotel/ca/holiday-home-on-west-5th-avenue.ja.html

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

You and I are thinking the same way! Flag em!

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vangrl

I think we managed to have them removed, keep it up!

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Actually. I’m just going through everything that’s pricing by the night. Get a business license. You are running a hotel!

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vangrl

make it hard for these guys to rent until they have one year leases available. #FLAG

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No Money Down

That makes 4…

632 E 20th
Sold July 2016: $1.2M
Currently Listed $1.18M
Legal fees, PTT, commission. Guaranteed loss $82k and counting.

Sellers have bought – Hurry on this one! OPEN SUN. 2-4PM.
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/632-e-20th-avenue

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Oracle

Realtor fees are negotiable. Nonone pay more than 10K unless….

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Oracle

Don’t buy that GT BS on realtor fees.

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No Money Down

Yes you can negotiate. Not sure how many actually do. I doubt the Realtor is setting up the 8th or 9th Open House for $5k in commish.

Here is the standard calculator:
http://www.mikestewart.ca/commission-calculator-for-realtor-fees-in-vancouver-with-net-proceeds-for-sellers/

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Oracle

Sure they do. 5K Is a lot of money

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Funkey Monkey

I would get the best relator always! You get what you pay for. They would sell your house fast and for more money. That’s my experience anyway.

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YVR

“Sellers have bought – Hurry on this one!”

Hugh? The seller bought this to live in then they buy another house and decide to move all within 4 months? Only in Vancouver.

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paulb

New
196
Price Change
54
Sold
71
TI:9548

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Its_the_ALR_stupid

Interesting. In most years inventory is falling steeply by mid-November, but it seems to be holding fairly steady at around 9.5k lately.

Still too early to say for sure but given the relative strength (for the time of year) it looks like we just might finally get that big listings surge in the spring that so many of us have been waiting for. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

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Best place on meth

Sell/list ratio is weak as well.

If we don’t see at least a couple of days by the end of the month where sales exceed listings, that’s yet another red flag.

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Oh oh

Listings will splooge like a teenage boy on prom night…spring market begins Jan 1st in Vancouver guaranteed exodus

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Best place on meth

Jan 2nd, actually.

Sorry patriotz, I beat you to it!

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Boombust

Does anyone have November listings stats from previous years?

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Ktown

For reference, Pauls #’s 1 year ago.
New:165
Sold:243
Ti:9626

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Oracle

Those numbers are what made the market take off.

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history

“While the rest of the world was focused on the US Presidential Election last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suddenly declared that he was voiding about 86% of the rupees in circulation.”

http://www.rollingalpha.com/2016/11/15/indias-jaw-dropping-money-experimen

Well, the official story is that this is trying to root out ‘black money’ and reduce corruption. Essentially though, this is about tax collection. Two things to point out:

1. Cash is almost entirely anonymous.
2. Bank transfers are never anonymous.

another blow to RE money laundering, this time as it applies to Surrey

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history

People in India were told to deposit their discontinued notes in banks and post office savings accounts before the end of the year. They were also told they could exchange limited amounts for new 500 and 2,000 rupee bills that are being delivered.

But for anyone with the cancelled currency outside India _ including members of the large Indian diaspora in Canada — there appears to be confusion on what to do with the discontinued bills.

The High Commission of India in Ottawa said it did not yet have any official guidance on the matter.

https://prismbusinesscapital.com/india-cancels-rupee-notes-leaving-some-canadians-with-worthless-cash/

“large indian diaspora in canada” with wads of worthless paper

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Ktown

What will Oracle do if his family money is now worthless? Im guessing there will be a suspicious fire in surrey soon.

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Best place on meth

All suspicious fires must be treated as hate crimes from now on.

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YVR

No need for a fire. Sawdust turns to mush in the rain.

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Oracle

Another naive statement.

Black money is plowed into Gold, real estate, and tax haven accounts.

Just like what Is happening here.

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southseacompany

“Vancouver’s Housing Market Has Seen 42% Of Its Money Vanish”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/11/15/vancouver-housing-toronto-crea_n_12988116.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-british-columbia&ir=Canada+British+Columbia

“As Toronto and surrounding regions hit new heights, Greater Vancouver’s market is crumbling. After peaking earlier this year, the amount of money flowing through it shrank by 42.1 per cent this October from the same month last year.”

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bullwhip29

so what does this tell you? answer, it was all about HAM and getting the money out of china from the onset, not purchases of homes to actually live in. this said, will HAM that is already here pick up and move? probably not.

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Combat roach

Be careful, soon the usual idiot will call you “racist” and explain it was always low rates and local greed.

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Best place on meth

Perhaps we could somehow encourage them to move.

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space889

Lots of bears love having ability to dictate how homeowners who pay for their assets should use it, despite putting up no $$ and taking no risk. Sounds like the worse of communism. You guys should be so proud of yourselves. Looking forward to worsening of living standards for renters over the decades.

Cuz if regulation & taxes can fix stuff, we should all be living in utopia now.

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history

peak utopia, 10am EST, Nov 8, 2016

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yvr2zrh

Regarding AirBnB and the 1% tax. These are basically mutually exclusive. Since you can not rent on AirBnB unless it is your principal residence, and the 1% tax does not apply to principal residence, then the 1% tax does not apply to AirBnB. If the city actually tries, AirBnB of a unit on a full time basis (outside of one’s principal residence) will be a thing of the past in Vancouver within 24 months. Too bad for those who flew under the radar for 20 years – but are now caught because so many people are doing it.

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bullwhip29

the 1% applies indirectly. if you have a secondary property or even other legal unit on same lot as principal residence (duplex, 3-plex, coach house etc) you will have to pay the vacancy tax (and maybe more) if either (1) property is vacant for > 6 mos or (2) property is being rented out illegally on short term basis

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bullwhip29

translation (for those that can’t figure the math out): a condo market crash in red flashing lights is imminent.

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Newcomer

The tax specifically exludes structures on the same property as the principal residence.

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YVR

Newcomer you need to change your name to “I dont get it”.

The city has said all unlicensed Air bnb properties will be declared as empty homes. Air bnb licenses will not be given for lane homes. If you rent a lane home as an air bnb then it is considered and empty home and will be subject to the undeclared empty home fine. Read this 5 times before you give one of your dumb responses.

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bullwhip29

tax will also apply to duplex, 3-plex and the like which have distinct addresses from principal residence.

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Billybonger

Oracle,

A lesson for you:

It is NOT the last straw that breaks the camel’s back.

It IS all the straw already in the back of the camel.

Load keeps getting heavier.

Enjoy your new Surrey spec home. Sincerely.

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Oracle

To all this posting stories of impending doom from a 25 basis rate hike:

Please stop with the naiveness.

what did

– reducing amortizations from 40 years to 25 do?
-eliminating CMHC on $1 million + properties do?
-raising downpayment to 10% on properties over $500k do?

and nothing going to happen when you:

– elite airbnb rentals
– impose a 1% vacancy tax (hahaha)

——————————-
Only way to stop runaway prices is to 1)limit immigration 2) tax foreign money entering Canada, 3) tax 2nd homes at x%, and 4) get CRA to enforce capital gains/rental income

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bullwhip29

none of these measures will affect HAM, just everyone else. for those that didnt believe primary driver of market was HAM, look what has happened since the rollout of the 15% tax. we’ll see about the CRA enforcement. obviously we will hear very little in this regard, but now everyone has to declare principal residence on tax returns and at least a paper trail is being established.

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southseacompany

Vancouver HPI had risen 25% from June 2009 to June 2012, when Flaherty capped amortizations at 25 years. That month the HPI started falling. It fell modestly by about 4% over the rest of the year and remained fairly flat thru 2013.

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Diadora

Average Greater Vancouver home sale price down almost 6% in October: BCREA
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/11/average-greater-vancouver-home-sale-price-down-alm/
For BCREA to admit falling prices, houses must be crashing hard!

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UBC in Crisis Mode

Right, now Point Grey lot can be had for $3 millions. Who has this kind of money, again? Foreign money will always come in, maybe at a slower pace.

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Newcomer

This is true, but says nothing. Is the slower pace a hundred sales a year or one sale every ten years.

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YVR

That is why those $3 million lots are not selling. The houses that are selling seem to be livable houses with suites under 1.75 million . Ones locals trading up are buying. That 40% interest rate hike should kill what is left if that market. That hike cost a $1 million morgage $8.5k per year in interest. Lets hope people on the edge dont’t have to renew anytime soon.

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space889

Funny reading all the bear comments. Love it! Almost as good and hilarious as those Clinton supporters who are crying and rioting right now in US.

I’m sure all the new measures make housing less appealing will increase supply, drop prices, and make every bear happy owners of SFH in nice little hoods like West Van / Van West, and other choice spots they so deserve to live in.

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ostritch

Last time NAFTA was negotiated hard to get water rights in Canada. That was Clinton vs Mulroney. This time it’ll be Trump vs Trudeau. Who do you think will win?

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space889

Nestle already owns water rights in this country. Pumping fresh water out of BC at rate of $2.25 per million liters. It also recently outbid 2 Ontario towns for exclusive rights on 2 water wells.

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ostritch

Was that part of a trade deal or a private sale?

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space889

I think they are water permits / license. But I’m not surprised if water rights were in the latest free trade deals. Nestle do push for that since they don’t believe in water is a fundamental human rights and should be privately owned and priced.

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southseacompany

“Strong U.S. retail sales reinforce December interest rate hike”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/us-business/us-october-retail-sales-beat-expectations-prior-month-revised-up/article32847749/

“U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in October as households bought motor vehicles and a range of other goods, pointing to sustained economic strength that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.”

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bullwhip29

Vancouver’s last Inner Harbour marina space goes on market
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/vancouvers-last-inner-harbour-marina-space-goes-on-market

>>> imho this wont be the last. eventually much of port of vanc current operations will be relocated after cooler heads (and greased palms) prevail. the new massey bridge is key a piece of the puzzle.

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space889

Political contribution & lobbying are the best investment you can make by a HUGEEEE margin.

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southseacompany

“Vancouver home prices dip for first time in almost 2 years, Ontario prices rise”, BNN

http://www.bnn.ca/vancouver-home-prices-dip-for-first-time-in-almost-2-years-ontario-prices-rise-1.608362

“Canadian home prices rose in October as continued strength in Ontario, the most populous province, offset the first decline in Vancouver in almost two years, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed on Tuesday.”

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patriotz

As others have already pointed out, Vancouver falling with Toronto continuing to rise is the worst case scenario for the former.

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southseacompany

‘RBC hikes some fixed mortgage rates as bond yields spike”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/rbc-hikes-some-fixed-mortgage-rates-as-bond-yields-spike/article32847841/

“Royal Bank of Canada is boosting its five-year mortgage rate, a move that follows rival Toronto-Dominion Bank and responds to spiking bond yields as well as Ottawa’s tighter mortgage rules.”

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southseacompany

“Condos follow Vancouver’s detached home slump”, Metro News

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2016/11/15/condos-follow-vancouvers-detached-home-slump.html

“Statistics published by REBGV show that prices have fallen for most property types in many neighbourhoods between September and October. MLS statistics show the benchmark price for a condo on Vancouver’s Westside fell 2.5 per cent between July and October.”

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bullwhip29

the is just the beginning of greater divergence between condo/apt and detached. with all the new measures in place (or soon to be) the condo as an investment will be the worst place to put your money. top shelf view or well located detached will always attract a buyer at some price. owners of pre-sale or recently built condos in some “concept” neighborhoods will wind up finding zero interest if they intend on flipping and getting out of the market. owners of these will have no choice but to add to quickly expanding rental pool and pray they can find someone both willing to pay their mortgage for them and responsible enough to not completely destroy their property in 3 months flat

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Newcomer

It better be a pretty good prayer as we have repeatedly shown that rent on a new condo in the Vancouver area will not cover mortgage unless the owner supplements it by at least the monthly pay-down amount.

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bullwhip29

my bad…i meant “help pay their mortgage”

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space889

Maybe because principle repayment isn’t really part of the cost of operation? But rather financing decision?

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