Interest Rates, Price Plunge & CMHC Losses

Southseacompany linked to this article in the Globe and Mail that talks about the CMHCs vulnerability to rising interest rates:

The most dramatic scenario involved a severe and prolonged global economic depression that sent unemployment soaring to 13.5 per cent and triggered a 25-per-cent drop in national home prices.

In that case CMHC said its mortgage insurance business could lose more than $3.1-billion over five years. However CMHC said it would have more than 200 per cent of its required minimum capital, even after accounting for stricter capital requirements that OSFI is expected to introduce in January. Insurance companies are required to stop writing new insurance business if their capital ratio falls below 100 per cent of its required minimum level and are insolvent when their capital levels hit zero.

CMHC’s stress testing comes amid heightened concerns over the health of the Canadian housing market. Last month, the housing agency issued its first “red” warning for Canada’s housing market as a whole, saying it now sees “strong evidence of problematic conditions” in six of the country’s largest housing markets.

In yet another scenario the Crown corporation said its insurance business would lose more than $2-billion if Canada experienced a “U.S.-style” housing correction, where home prices drop by 30 per cent and the unemployment rate rises to 12 per cent.

Read the full article here.

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Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

JPMorgan fined for hiring kids of China’s elite to win business

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/17/investing/jpmorgan-china-hiring-bribery-settlement/index.html

space889
Member
space889

What about hiring Chelsea Clinton?

patriotz
Member

Is Sydney really in the grip of a housing bubble??

The most bubbly city on the list, Vancouver, has already seen a significant albeit tax-driven correction of 18%-20%.

Which is wrong of course. If that had already happened there would be blood in the streets. Disappointing from the BBC.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Looks like blood in the streets on the west side.

The few sales that are taking place are typically 10-15% below the original asking price.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

blood is not flowing yet btw. many owners just took a major body blow in last 3 months. they still think with a little bit of time and good luck the injury will just heal all by itself.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

even using the very crude and probably doctored REBGV average prices a correction (and probably something more severe) appears to be well underway

Jan 2016 – $1.826M
Aug 2016 – $1.470M (- 19.5% from Jan high)
Oct 2016 – $1.598M (prices still need to climb by another 15% to get back to even for the year)

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not in the valley.
Detached still up 40% from Aug 2015.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

that’s fair enough but despite no foreign tax, prices are in fact down from the highs of a few months ago (albeit not to same degree as gr vanc). if the “body blow” i referred to becomes more of a festering internal injury then vanc will drag down everybody else and what we are currently witnessing is just the tip of the iceberg. i think many aggressive investors and first time buyers of condos in partcular will now get kicked in the balls (after having been punched in the teeth in august). worst catagory of RE to be long right now

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

The Valley will be the hardest hit. After all, nobody lives there by choice.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

9 Acres Of Vancouver Real Estate On The Water, Only Worth $1
https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/9-acres-vancouver-real-estate-water-worth-1/

YLTNboomerang
Member

They did this as Concord was supposed to covert it to parkland…yea right, just look at the green protest lights at the South End of False Creek. Funny thing is the parcel looks bigger a few years back, I guess they finally decided to build some condos on that parkland. Concord needs to go; korrupt ka-shing

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/concord-pacific-land-assessment-outrages-residents-1.1339027

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
space889
Member
space889

How about just end all realtors instead. Remind me again why I should not be allowed to hire someone without a realtor license to house hunt for me for say $1000?? Seriously, what’s the deal with requiring realtors to be hired for RE transactions? What value do they provide aside from maybe some negotiation skills and basic market knowledge? It’s not like they are actually liable for selling defective houses or unsuitable houses that a financial planner would be liable for.

Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already

Yes, what value do they provide except maybe saving you thousands of dollars….? Oh.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

you are not legally required to use a realtor you idiot

bullwhip29
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bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Just last night I was speaking to a friend who dropped the rent by 10% on his Calgary apartment to keep a tenant.

It is interesting to note that this increase in the vacancy rate and decrease in rent is happening even though the population of Calgary is actually growing. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-civic-census-results-2016-1.3687258

I would guess it is due to negative household formation rates and increases supply from speculators unwilling to sell but wanting to get some return, as flipping is no longer an option.

Perhaps our resident bulls have other explanations.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
space889
Member
space889

Right, cuz those politicians and their donors totally don’t want the tax free housing lottery they got. Bless their black little hearts.

Newcomer
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Newcomer
HAMster
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HAMster

http://www.cknw.com/2016/11/17/vancouver-police-make-big-stolen-baby-formula-bust/

“The biggest market for the stolen baby formula is China, where a can can be resold for 3 times what it’s worth in Canada.”

Why? Because if it’s from Canada it is sure not to be tainted.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

What the fuck is the deal with locusts and their obsession with baby formula?

Do their women not have any tits?

space889
Member
space889

ok, there you go, a free money making idea. Export Cdn manufactured baby formula to China.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Citi to sell Canadian subprime lending unit to private investment firm as it scales back international footprint
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/citi-to-sell-canadian-subprime-lending-unit-to-private-investment-firm-as-it-scales-back-international-footprint

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Citi sees what’s coming

bullwhip29
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bullwhip29

Effective Jan 1 employees of shops in Landsdowne mall will have to register their plate #’s and manned patrols to will be ramped up to maintain some sort of order. Friends and family members will not be exempted either. Looks like free park and ride is over. Suggestions have also been submitted to costco bridgeport to issue numbered parking decals to members only. all other riff raff using that lot as a free park and ride will be subject towing. i guess the plus in all that is those a-holes who find it necessary to back their porsche cayennes up into the entrance, park in the autoshop stall or simply stop in the middle of the road with hazrd lights on won’t need to do this anymore

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Apparenlty EasyPark was not making enough money off the students parking at Kwantlen who neglect to buy a daily parking pass and get a ticket from EasyPark. There are plenty of spaces at Landsdowne Mall.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

parking on west side of mall littered with cars parked there all day (ie. canada line park & riders) despite the mall being nearly empty. costco’s lot starts filling up hrs before they are even open

space889
Member
space889

Right, cuz people driving $100K+ cars would totally care about that $300/month downtown parking and would instead cram onto crowded skytrain in the morning & at night.

HAMster
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HAMster

Metrotown mall uses license plate recognition now to stop people from parking there for more than 4 hours. They will tow if a person violates repeatedly.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Good. Let’s hope they don’t clog up free parking on small streets instead tho.

HAMster
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HAMster

No because all the construction workers already do that.

YVR
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YVR

Pope can you just ban this Space loser. He comes on here to troll and offers nothing. Just read his last 10 posts. What kind of loser continually posts about molsting childeren on a housing blog. He is probably a pedofile himself and is such a loser they even banned him from the pedophile blogs. Time to show this blog has a small amount of class and ban him for good.

space889
Member
space889

What??!! What’s the obsession with banning? When I’m posting cheering how proud Canadians should be of their habits. People here are so focused on the Chinese vermins and locusts that they often lose sight of what makes a Canadian so unique and a role model to the world. Are you saying celebrating good old fashioned Canadian values and what makes Canada so great occasionally here, to lift the spirits of people who are so depressed about high housing prices and insects invasion is WRONG?? Really??

oh la la
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oh la la

Yo YVR, you gotta come to YUL. We might have some cheap condos for you. It is good for your health at least your whining will decrease from 10 to 9.

Foo Man
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Foo Man

Did you mean to send this to your Mommy Numbnuts?

Maybe review your own 10 posts. Then return to fiddling with your comically tiny dingus.

space889
Member
space889

Canada – Be Proud – Land of sexual deviants and predators, harming those least able to protect themselves. So f*ed up. All fing real Canadians like these should be locked up. I’m looking at you BPOM & Co! Bunch of fing perverts and deviants. You people should not be allowed near any children!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/7-year-old-and-her-older-sister-made-available-on-craigslist-for-sex-multiple-charges-laid-1.3854925

The Man
Guest
The Man

No prob. JT’s lowering the age of consent for anal sex. Will all be legal now.

BTW it’s not ‘perverts and deviants’ its LGBT2P&D. Show some inclusiveness.
P&D lives matter!

HAMster
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HAMster

Selfie JT tackles the hard issues.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

who is the more f’d up, the one posting the ad or rich, arrogant pricks who respond to the ads?

space889
Member
space889

Both and they are all likely to be local real Canadians that you, BPOM & co would be proud of to be called Canadians and be friends with.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Anbang Close to Buying Toronto Tower for About $395 Million
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-16/anbang-said-close-to-buying-toronto-tower-for-about-395-million

>>> the plan is to obviously set up satellite offices globally so their clients can access their “wealth management products” offshore.

space889
Member
space889
Btw, someone mentioned that Filipinos are the biggest source of immigrants to Canada now. So in another decade or two, this will likely be a Filipino city cuz once one get citizenship, they work together to start sponsoring all their extended family here. They don’t make a lot of $, but they sure seem to be way happier than the bears with their big fat investment portfolios. They certainly don’t seem to be complaining on this blog, probably too busy working and make a better future for their kids. Hmmm…actually thinking about, most of the immigrants are likely to be females too under the domestic helper program. Young, single females. No wonder real Vancouver women are always complaining about trouble finding good men. Maybe the good men of this city wants a genuine hard working, happy, youthful, beautiful, and appreciative… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You’re right space, Filipinos are great people. They’re friendly, happy, outgoing, speak English….

Totally opposite of you-know-who.

And your hatred of women seems to be getting worse.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

this is good stuff. you should post it on your PoF profile

space889
Member
space889

Is that site still alive?? I guess you would know if you are still frequenting it?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Thanks for sharing.

space889
Member
space889
So, bears get a few more wet dreams and then what happens when they wake up? Maybe a nice bills to make up for the losses, or tighter lending restrictions that shuts them out faster than house prices fall. All I see on here is a bunch of whiners who’s wrong for a decade, and now getting excited yet again at the hint that maybe, just maybe their suffering will end and things will get back to 2008 prices when they couldn’t afford to buy because prices are too high. 70% of households own in this country. All housing in this city is owned by someone. Many by people who likely make far less than the bears. Yet, life goes on for them and they don’t seem to feel the need to blame their troubles on those evil Chinese who… Read more »
Confucius
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Confucius

Space, you do realize you’re just as prejudice as the racists on this blog. You’re assuming all bears are the same, but really there’s only a couple of racists hear. You’re wishing ill will on all of us when most of us have not done anything to you.

space889
Member
space889

What are you talking about??!! I’m learning from the model bears on this blog and you are slagging me for it? Seriously??

Is it because I haven’t called anyone locust, scum, insects and advocate for their exterminations yet?

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Because you are insulting me when I’ve done nothing to you so STFU. You think whining and bitching to racists is going to change how they think? You think insulting these rest of us will get us on your side? You’re acting like a baby and not doing any favors for China.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
He’s not slagging you at all, but instead commenting that you’ve grouped him in as a whiner bear with wet dreams when he’s likely just a regular joe wanting to see the city be more affordable to local income earners. I am curious, why do you get so worked up about that ideal? Why should Canadians and Vancouverites welcome and encourage an environment where people live in 400sq ft boxes and toil their whole lives to pay off crushing debt just because other countries have that problem? Homes are overpriced. There’s no doubt about that. It doesn’t matter what the prices are elsewhere because as countrymen we can band together to determine what WE want our living conditions to be. China has plenty of protectionist policies and I don’t see anything wrong with protecting our own citizens too. You live… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You are right, even a pretty big crash probably would not bring prices to a level that would make buying a good deal, but we’ve been putting our money elsewhere for so long that I’m not sure I would buy, even if there were a slight premium over renting. But that doesn’t make watching the phenomenon any less interesting. There are plenty of people on this blog that don’t even live here, and so have zero potential for skin in the game, but they are still entertained.

May I suggested that you too shrug off these strong emotions and try to enjoy the fortunes of Vancouver real estate as the light entertainment that it is.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

O please. You wouldn’t frequent this site if you had a lot of money.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Yes, my question too. What counts as “a lot of money” Oracle? How much money does one have to have to meet the minimum for “alot”?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Not that I ever said that I have a lot of money (all depends on your defenition of “a lot”), your comment makes no sense. Why would a person who was broke be interested in markets or investing?

Why do you visit this site?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

70% is too much. even a small tremor will cause all kinds of turmoil with millions potentially being underwater on at least one or more properties. the Mrs + Mr “I buy three” type of people are about to get their a$$es handed to them with the rollout of the vacancy tax (on top of forieng buyer tax). in a snap of a finger tenants hold all the cards now and will not resign new leases in the coming months (assuming those will even be allowed in 2017). very suddenly you will see a pile of new listings in brand new new bldgs and countless pre-sale buyers with no exit. i heard the other day that the site concord brentwood is being built on is unstable too.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

It makes no sense to have any sort of positive thoughts on hearing about problems in developments. That will only push up costs and potentially prevent inventory from coming online. I see all this frantic building as a good thing because if there’s a correction all that supply will help push down pricing metro wide.

space889
Member
space889

Until I see at least 5% vacancy rate, I highly doubt tenants will hold any cards….

I do foresee maybe 6 months of panic thanks to home vacancy tax & AirBnB crackdown. But after that I have serious doubts about having a renters market in Vancouver on a longer term basis.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s very hard to say what the current vacancy rate is because the posted rate is based on purpose built multifamily building and they only represent a tiny fraction of the rental stock in Vancouver. But the vacancy rate has been low for the past 10 years, and it has only been a really tight market for the past year.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

wrong. 1000’s of vacant units will hit the rental mkt soon. when condo prices wilt even further, there will be more as sellers resort to plan B. the other unknown is what will happen with fixed term leasing arrangements going forward. imho the true vacancy rate is higher than advertised.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Christy has already said she will nuke fix-term once the new session starts.