Yvr2zrh posted a snapshot summary for what’s currently going on in the market:
So – Here are some interesting takeaways from the numbers yesterday.
1.) Across Canada, you saw the impact of the mortgage rule announcements. Markets most likely to be affected by this rule change saw a spike in transactions.
2.) REBGV region is likely going to be the only region in Canada which saw a transaction volume decrease from September to October. This shows how soft it is.
3.) In REBGV – The components outside the 15% tax zone had the lowest sales decrease for detached (VWS, VIS, VMR, VSC).
4.) Zones with most concentrated foreign investment are having largest volume decreases. West Van leads with Burnaby and Richmond coming up next. Van West Detached had a pretty good month, comparatively. (Perhaps the tax auditors will start to pull apart those transactions to find some GAAR violations for the new taxes!).
5.) Prices are down for detached in almost all markets. In REBGV, only the zones outside the tax area are up. Although down, VVE and VVW have the lowest decreases in the 3-month range. West Van, Burnaby, New West and Port Coquitlam have the largest decreases so far.
6.) In the FVREB area – the most amazing statistic was the very large increase in sales of apartments. This has to be showing that people rushed to purchase to beat the mortgage rule changes.
7.) FVREB – Detached are doing poorly with White Rock showing the most significant sales decrease.
8.) Van West apartments – one of the largest apartment markets – was noticeably down in volume and price. This is counter to the trend in apartments. Perhaps this is showing the impacts of the new AirBnB rules and vacant home tax. Investor demand should now basically be capped unless they are buying to rent – – which is a terrible proposition at todays prices. Thus – we are now already seeing the impacts of the new rules – before they are even in place. Next step will when rules force current owners to re-assess their situation and likely sell (if you don’t want to rent to long-term renter – you won’t be able to be hold a second home or rent to Air BnB – – too costly and illegal respectively).
9.) Trends? From September to October – the following were the most significant declines in significant markets: Maple Ridge – Apartment, Burnaby – Detached, North Van – Apartments, Richmond Detached, Van West Townhouse, Port Coq Apartment, Van West Apartment.
– – Strangely enough – Van West Detached was modestly stable.
There’s the current month thoughts. Overall – a pretty good price decline. If we get any month over 1% across the market as a decline – that’s pretty significant.