Market snapshot

Yvr2zrh posted a snapshot summary for what’s currently going on in the market:

So – Here are some interesting takeaways from the numbers yesterday.

1.) Across Canada, you saw the impact of the mortgage rule announcements. Markets most likely to be affected by this rule change saw a spike in transactions.
2.) REBGV region is likely going to be the only region in Canada which saw a transaction volume decrease from September to October. This shows how soft it is.
3.) In REBGV – The components outside the 15% tax zone had the lowest sales decrease for detached (VWS, VIS, VMR, VSC).
4.) Zones with most concentrated foreign investment are having largest volume decreases. West Van leads with Burnaby and Richmond coming up next. Van West Detached had a pretty good month, comparatively. (Perhaps the tax auditors will start to pull apart those transactions to find some GAAR violations for the new taxes!).
5.) Prices are down for detached in almost all markets. In REBGV, only the zones outside the tax area are up. Although down, VVE and VVW have the lowest decreases in the 3-month range. West Van, Burnaby, New West and Port Coquitlam have the largest decreases so far.
6.) In the FVREB area – the most amazing statistic was the very large increase in sales of apartments. This has to be showing that people rushed to purchase to beat the mortgage rule changes.
7.) FVREB – Detached are doing poorly with White Rock showing the most significant sales decrease.
8.) Van West apartments – one of the largest apartment markets – was noticeably down in volume and price. This is counter to the trend in apartments. Perhaps this is showing the impacts of the new AirBnB rules and vacant home tax. Investor demand should now basically be capped unless they are buying to rent – – which is a terrible proposition at todays prices. Thus – we are now already seeing the impacts of the new rules – before they are even in place. Next step will when rules force current owners to re-assess their situation and likely sell (if you don’t want to rent to long-term renter – you won’t be able to be hold a second home or rent to Air BnB – – too costly and illegal respectively).
9.) Trends? From September to October – the following were the most significant declines in significant markets: Maple Ridge – Apartment, Burnaby – Detached, North Van – Apartments, Richmond Detached, Van West Townhouse, Port Coq Apartment, Van West Apartment.
– – Strangely enough – Van West Detached was modestly stable.

There’s the current month thoughts. Overall – a pretty good price decline. If we get any month over 1% across the market as a decline – that’s pretty significant.

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time to go
Guest
time to go

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lAoTBVTTO8

Good current video on the mentality behind the Chinese property bubble mentality. The vlogger has lived in China for 10 years and explains why he’d never buy property in Shenzen. Skip to 7.01 for some good insight.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Informative and scary.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Know your enemies.

Donald T
Guest
Donald T

Hermes sale in the middle kingdom jump. West side prices will be up as a result or because of that.

refused to stay
Guest
refused to stay

I don’t remember seeing such a dramatic title on the Okanagan most use news site:

http://www.castanet.net/news/BC/179879/Vancouver-home-sales-tank

Midnight toker
Guest
Midnight toker

Last time I checked the okanagon was still super pricey, wonder what ll happen

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Real estate board’s “corrections” to September stats:

ALL PROPERTIES:
Previous -0.1%
Revised -0.7%

DETATCHED:
Previous +0.1%
Revised -0.6%

APARTMENTS:
Previous: -0.5%
Revised: -0.7%

Its_the_ALR_stupid
Guest
Its_the_ALR_stupid

Maybe an honest mistake, maybe intentional. Definitely suspicious, especially considering the timing.

This is just another reason why we need the competition board to keep up its anti-monopoly fight against the real estate boards and force them to provide sales data with the public.

space889
Member
space889

Uhm…there is nothing preventing you from collecting all the sales data and compile your own data set. Kind of like what National Bank / Teranet Index is doing.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

2% drop for detached ober 2 months. Even with the skewed “benchmark” thats a decent drop. Lets not forget it was increasing 2-3% a month in the spring. So if you factor that in its closer to a 6-8% drop in 2 months from where investors thought it would be…

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Oh please. So 2% drop in one month means prices will be -25% in 5 years?

LMAO…go back and retake grade 7 math.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey
Confucius
Guest
Confucius

A drop of 2% per month over 5 years is exactly -70.24%. His math is correct in what investor expectations would have been based on the previous rate of increaeses. Do you not understand?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Now for October stats (pending downward revisions):

All properties -0.8%

Detached -1.4%

Apartments +0.3%

Biggest losers for detached:

West Van -4.5%
Burnaby East -3.9%
New West -3.7%
Ladner -2.7%
Squamish -2.3%
Burnaby south -1.9%

YVR
Guest
YVR

Considering the expected spike in sales for condos with the sheep trying to beat the new CMHC stress test qualifications this is pretty dire. Coming Nov 30th the new CMHC bulk insurance rules come into effect where we will see higher rates for any amortization over 25 years or the elimination of amortizations over 25 years period by some lenders (most mortgages in 2015). Then in early 2017 year over year declines reported by the RE cartels will let the sheep know the party is over. The real carnage will be Spring. Then there is the bonus Toronto is still on fire. More government tightening to come?

Kim
Guest
Kim

Not to mention actual rates are going up. US Fed strongly hinted US rates are going up in December probably 0.25%. TD just raised its prime yesterday. If BoC doesn’t follow suit our loony will be worthless. Either way those over extended are going to be in trouble.

Reasonfirst
Guest
Reasonfirst

Also effective Nov. 30, bulk insurance can only be applied to property value’s below $1,000,000.

Does anyone know if this is a new change? We’re there limits before?

DoF Techinal Backgrounder:

http://www.fin.gc.ca/n16/data/16-117_2-eng.asp

Reasonfirst
Guest
Reasonfirst

we’re = were!

Reasonfirst
Guest
Reasonfirst

Techinal = Technical!! …should review before posting 🙂

Just me
Guest
Just me
patriotz
Member

Thousands of empty homes adding to Sydney’s housing crisis, experts say

Sydney’s housing affordability crisis is being artificially inflated by up to 90,000 properties standing empty in some of the city’s most desirable suburbs, experts say. Vacant properties were among the “perverse outcomes” of tax incentives that encouraged some investors to favour capital growth over rental returns, according to the analysis by the UNSW’s City Futures Research Centre

Just me
Guest
Just me

Incentives apply to both locals and investors.
As people have been telling you for years, things are not mutually exclusive.

patriotz
Member

“both locals and investors? ” Clearly the tax incentives described in the article apply primarily to local investors. I have always maintained that the “housing crisis” in Oz is primarily the outcome of local tax policies and local buyers, just as it is in Canada.

Just me
Guest
Just me

We know what you maintained.
Flat earth.

Just me
Guest
Just me
paulb
Member
Active Member

New
141
Price Change
47
Sold
97
TI:9619

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Toronto prices up 29% year over year.

Don’t you just love what record immigration is doing and is GOING to do. FOMO.

People realize there that FOMO is real. All political parties are going to increase immigration going forward. Got your place yet?

I can see a life of servitude to the landlords for many people here. YOU make the bed you lie in.

Toronto going to grow by about 110,000/year going forward.
Vancouver by 70,000/year going forward.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

We cant all live in our parents basement, shooting msgs off whenever we come into contact with free wifi like you. HA

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Toronto prices up 29% year over year.”

Perfect. The federal government and CMHC have already stated they intend to stop the market from rising (the market being Toronto). As long as Toronto rises, expect more credit tightening, CMHC restrictions and higher mortgage rates going forward. All this while Vancouver is crashing. The most bearish thing for Vancouver is a rising Toronto market.

space889
Member
space889

And all the bears will be there to scoop up the deals for pennies on the dollar with their multi-million $ investment portfolios, right?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

6.) In the FVREB area – the most amazing statistic was the very large increase in sales of apartments. This has to be showing that people rushed to purchase to beat the mortgage rule changes.

///////////////////////
Wrong. The people I know who bought apartments are going to rent them out. They say rents are going to rise considerably the next few years.

Lets see who is right.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Lmfao. YOU are an idiot.
Whats your deal? Nobody else to talk to so you come on here and act like an idiot to get attention? Your whole story is likely bs. I doubt you even have the sawdust you claim.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Already pointed it out moron. It was to see how long it took for you to figure it out.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

We will see who has the last laugh regarding rent prices.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Kitsilano rentals just hit 502, never seen them climb this high this fast.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

Rental rates are trending down now.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Not you!

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Because rents will continue to increase just like HMB predicted prices to do in the Spring.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“The people I know who bought apartments are going to rent them out. They say rents are going to rise considerably”

If people are buying all the apartments to rent them out that means rents will go down with the new supply. LOL Oracle fails again.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Your “friends” appear to be just as stupid as you

Oh NO
Guest
Oh NO

Cars sales in down trend also…. not just housing bubbles out there. Everything with a $ sign rolls in cycles up n down. Down we go

space889
Member
space889

Surprised that team BPOM hasn’t posted this important story showing what a country of low life scumbag killers Canada is yet – innocent students killed & maimed in school stabbing.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/1-student-dead-another-wounded-in-double-stabbing-at-abbotsford-high-school-1.3831825

Oh wait, what am I thinking, stereotype and generalization obviously don’t apply to Canada due to Canadian exceptionalism, and plain old double standard.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Ignore racist comments for now. Another T2 gov and wham! It’s 2026 and ….

Stats Can forecast demographics for Metro Vancouver:

37% Asian
33% Caucasian
18% South Asian
12% other.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Cool as long as they they are hard working and contributing to the city instead of just buying and selling real estate like the undesirables we have now. That’s you, if you don’t get what I mean.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Amen to that.

space889
Member
space889

Well, I guess that would exclude you who does nothing beside spewing verbal diarrhea on here.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Hey, do you and shut it down have your next vacation planned yet?

Let me know, I have some great ideas where you two should go.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Your $1400/month palace?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

South side of Chicago would be ideal for you two.

YVR
Guest
YVR

But caucasians will still be running things and south asians doing the low paid labour jobs like picking berries, delivering flyers and driving cabs. Not looking good for berry picker wages. Oracle you better get a second paper route or take in another 30 relatives to live with you.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not really. The majority will demand affirmative action. Crown Corps and municipal Govs then must reflect the community.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
space889
Member
space889

You are a such a despicable loser.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
YVR
Guest
YVR

You are such a despicable loser.

space889
Member
space889

You mean I’m still not learning enough from people like BPOM? I have to redouble my efforts to be meaner, nastier, and more hateful?

YVR
Guest
YVR

Space all you do is promote the hatred of Chinese living in Vancouver. The sad part is most a nice people and few are scum like you.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I see admin has let this place fall to the level of monkeys throwing shit at each other once again.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

It always happens when space shows up.

There’s something about him that causes the blog to degenerate.

Then when he leaves it becomes much more civil.

I’m sure it’s our fault though.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Looks like Space and Oracle are the best buddies now although I am confused which one of them is currently a primary Jester at VCI?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not buddies.

After the racism directed at me, I realize that my kids best hope is to have foreigners flood this city so everyone is an equal.

I’m gonna advocate for yearly immigration of 500,000.

Newcomer-can\'t-post
Guest
Newcomer-can\'t-post

If you advocate for it, it’s sure to happen. Everyone knows you have the prime minister’s ear.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Toronto diverges from Vancouver as home sales hit all-time high”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/toronto-diverges-from-vancouver-as-home-sales-hit-all-time-high-1.599135

“Home sales hit an all-time high in Canada’s largest city last month, providing more evidence of divergence between the country’s most-watched housing markets as buyers and sellers face a wave of new regulations.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Terence Corcoran: Time to rethink the Bank of Canada’s obsession with interest rates”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/terence-corcoran-time-to-rethink-the-bank-of-canadas-obsession-with-interest-rates

“Central banks, including the Bank of Canada, have failed to restart key global economies. They keep trying, mostly with near-zero interest rate policies and various forms of quantitative easing, but the world remains mired in slow growth, or worse.”

patriotz
Member

That’s not really the fault of the central banks, but of right wing governments (and that includes the US because Congress controls taxation and spending) that have refused to implement fiscal stimulus.

Tvashtar
Guest
Tvashtar

Like Japan!

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Whoopsie! Vancouver Real Estate Board Was Off By Up To 5%”, Better Dwelling

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/whoopsie-vancouver-real-estate-board-was-off-by-up-to-5/

“The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), quietly issued a correction, and replaced the September statistical package. According to REBGV, September’s numbers were off by up to 5%. This has a dramatic impact on the interpretation of the market. Single Family Detached Homes are doing much worse than stated, and condos might actually be doing better.”

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Ten years ago, you could have a surrogate in California with a base compensation of $25,000. Now, with all the Chinese people coming here, that base compensation is at $40,000. Europeans and Israelis have been priced out.”

Man, they’re driving up the price of everything these days.

And what’s the deal with sticking a frozen embryo in someone else’s womb for 9 months?

I thought the chinese hated renting.

Midnight toker
Guest
Midnight toker

Nothing much really to get excited about, still seeing lots of sold signs in the tricities area

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