Vancouver Down, Toronto Up.

House prices never go down in Vancouver, except when they do.

But what about Toronto? The city that seldom thinks about BC?

Prices are up 11.8 per cent from a year earlier.

“In fact, there’s anecdotal information that suggests that foreign investors … are now turning to other cities that are not as expensive as Vancouver, because even that market’s gotten out of reach for wealthy foreign buyers.”

A separate report from real estate agents showed a 2.4 per cent monthly rise in sales in October and a 14.6 per cent surge in annual prices as buyers rushed to get into the market before tighter mortgage rules could take effect.

Taken together, the data showed Canada’s market cooling in most markets outside of Toronto, where a building boom and rising household indebtedness have spurred fears of a U.S.-style collapse if borrowing costs, already rising, spike further.

“Almost all seems to be well in Canada’s housing market, with most regions enjoying moderate sales activity and price gains, Alberta’s hard-hit market stabilizing, and Vancouver’s zany market returning to earth,” Guatieri said in a research note.

“However, accelerating prices in Toronto and its surrounding areas will only increase the chance of a correction if interest rates rise too sharply … and the chance of that happening is now somewhat higher under a new U.S. president.”

Read the full article over at BNN.ca

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[…] Southseacompany linked to this article in the Globe and Mail that talks about the CMHCs vulnerability to rising interest rates: […]

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Yellen says Fed could raise interest rates ‘relatively soon’”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/us-business/yellen-says-fed-could-raise-interest-rates-relatively-soon/article32883500/

“The Federal Reserve could raise U.S. interest rates “relatively soon” if economic data keeps pointing to an improving labour market and rising inflation, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday in a clear hint the U.S. central bank could hike next month.”

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

She will have to raise rates just to keep her job under Trump.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“CMHC’s mortgage business vulnerable to sharply rising interest rates”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/sudden-rise-in-rates-could-send-home-prices-reeling-cmhc-warns/article32883563/

“A sudden sharp rise in interest rates that could cause Canadian home prices to plunge 30 per cent would trigger more than $1-billion in losses to the country’s government-backed mortgage insurer, according to the results of stress tests released today by the federal housing agency.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Stress Test Indicates Canada Housing Prices Could Drop Precipitously”, Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/stress-test-indicates-canada-housing-prices-could-drop-precipitously-1479393315

“A severe and prolonged economic depression could result in a 25% decline in Canadian house prices by 2021, Canada’s national housing agency says.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, barring a ‘surprise,’ official says”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/federal-reserve-rate-hike-bullard-1.3853427

“U.S. interest rates will go up next month, unless there is a major shock to the economy, a key Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Why Trudeau’s Tighter Mortgage Rules Are Likely Canada’s Last”, Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/why-trudeau-s-tighter-mortgage-rules-are-likely-canada-s-last

“While Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s recent measures to cool Canadian housing markets are only the latest in a decade-long effort to stem demand, beginning with (former BoC Governor )Dodge’s letter (warning about lax standards fueling demand for homes. ), they have also begun to reveal something else: the federal government’s waning ability to solve the problem.”

patriotz
Member

” the federal government’s waning ability to solve the problem.”

That should be ” the federal government’s continuing unwillingness to solve the problem. ” Every player in RE, including the Feds themselves, knows that the latter has the power to crater the market. Which is exactly why the Feds have been so timid in their measures.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

For those who don’t quite get all the buzz about Trump here lately…

Canada Has Strong Potential For A Trump-Like Revolt

Imagine a middle class Canadian family. They can’t afford to own a home, their income isn’t changing very much, and the only jobs becoming available to them are temporary ones that don’t provide any benefits.

Try to envision the anxiety that parents must feel when they can’t afford shelter; when there’s little hope of them doing that in the future; and when governments fail to make their situation any better.

Now imagine a politician claiming to understand their pain. Who explains away their suffering using a bogeyman like trade deals or foreigners. And who gives them a sense of catharsis at knowing they have something to blame for their troubles.

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/12976338

patriotz
Member

“Who explains away their suffering using a bogeyman like trade deals”

That part sounds like the NDP. As for scapegoating immigrants, every federalist party knows that immigrants (e.g. 905 voters) decide federal elections. Canada has a huge first and second generation citizen population. And blaming the “ethnic vote” doesn’t even work for the separatists in Quebec anymore.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Can we just wait and see what the asshole does? If all he does is re-negotiate trade deals to US benefit by even a small amount, re-patriate even another small amount of jobs, bring a few US corporations home, throw out or incarnate the f*cking scary illegal gangsters up and down the I5, and no one else, he’ll be a f*cking hero.

Why is every news story suddenly about the US president? Banks raise rates it’s because of Trump’s America. Someone’s told you too kiss their ass? Only in Trump’s America. Eczema? Trump.

paulb
Member

New
163
Price Change
54
Sold
161
TI:9476

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

Lotta sales pre nov 9th sheeple thinking the worst was over. ….they got trumped and now face Mr interest rates spiking. Not to mention low listings as nobody wants to deal with agony of selling houses in falling market before santa come. Jan 1 reality and bill’s arrive no more heloc equal rush to list early spring market. The herd acts in herd fashion.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Wow. Almost 100% sale/list ratio.

Until they address the real cause, the buying will continue. They playing the naive.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Just balancing out yesterday’s disastrous sales…wanna bet tomorrow’s sales are disastrous once again?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not really.

Still doesn’t change the fact that the real issue isn’t addressed.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Polina just keeps coming back ! So she knows she’s getting flagged. Must mean running out of options to keep replacing flagged ads.

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/search/sub?query=polina&availabilityMode=0

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Just e-mail her and let her know the city has taken a great interest in her numerous short term rentals and will be following up with her shortly.

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

Vancouver west side SFH sales
September: 59 sales
October: 66 sales
Remember these are multi-million dollar houses and purchased by foreign money (not foreign persons)

patriotz
Member

It’s been pointed out here that even most offshore buyers are getting financing from Canadian banks for over 50% of the purchase price.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Fucks are regrouping but continue with their cunning shit about laundering and stashing money here. Until governments realize that we are under brutal attack by foreign organized crime and respond seriously in defending Canadian sovereignty nothing will significantly change. They are organized at all levels, social, political, financial and very motivated striking directly or using numerous 5th column in meeting their strategic objectives.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

blame the politicians and strategically placed bureaucrats.

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything

I am truly concerned for Canada. By resting on our laurels of non productive home price growth, we have lost a decade and are now lazy.
Not a great thing to be in this highly competitive global environment.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

You are totally right!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Be concerned about yourself. The homeless population is exploding and no one seems to give a damn about them as they drive by.

Canada is a place to exploit now.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

You’re right. Homeless increasing exponentially and sadly no one seems to care.

Specuskeptic
Member
Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

All 3 NPA members voted against it. Last election I voted for NPA in pretty much every category as a protest vote against Vision and Gregor, but I now plan to vote Vision next time around since I don’t want there to be a reverse in course on issues like this.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I’m with you, Vision is bad but NPA is disgraceful.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Have a freind who listed in September. He’s dropped his price once and is about to drop it again. He has also told his realtor that, if she can’t sell it at the new price, he’ll find someone else willing to try. The new price is still 20% above last year’s theoretical price. Must suck to be a realtor at the moment.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Realtors will be putting on the squeeze soon enough.

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

Banks upping rates. .rumors realtors are too as it now takes some effort to sell a property so they want more commission.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

How’s this garbage even published? Is our tax dollar keeping this asholle Qiyan employed at SFU? Another shill worried about the slowdown of locus’s invasion…

A Simon Fraser University professor is asking whether B.C.’s new 15 per cent foreign buyer tax could have a negative impact on international students whose families have taken on considerable financial risk to get them a coveted Western education.

Many of the parents aren’t planning to join their children in Canada right away, but wait until they have retired in the next 10 or 20 years. But what Wu heard from some of the people he interviewed was that the parents are now considering other cities because of the 15 per cent tax.

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2016/11/16/how-international-students-are-changing-vancouver-.html

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

“Coveted education”

Hahaha. No shame left in professors.

Dumbass knows it’s all about getting a PR card.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Yet another “intellectual” asshole using Canadian institution ( university) to lament over a slowdown of locust’s invasion. Is this shill talking his shit on a expense of the Canadian taxpayer? Those people have no shame at all…

“Many of the parents aren’t planning to join their children in Canada right away, but wait until they have retired in the next 10 or 20 years. But what Wu heard from some of the people he interviewed was that the parents are now considering other cities because of the 15 per cent tax.”

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2016/11/16/how-international-students-are-changing-vancouver-.html

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

This SFU professor should resign and go back to china immediately.

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

These locust fockers are so entitled they feel they are owed something by Canadian taxpayers. Wu is contradicting himself anyways; he admits the children’s “education” is just so the parents can get into Canada.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Isn’t it good news that people are considering other cities due to the tax? It means the tax is effective. Imagine how quickly things would happen if all the kids of tax payers were “priced out” of Ontario :).

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Mortgage rates up” CBC’s The National video;

http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/mortgage-rates-up-1.3852834

“Renee Filippone reports there is more to today’s mortgage rate hike by RBC than just Donald Trump”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“TD Bank joins Royal Bank in increasing fixed mortgage rates”, CBC News

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/td-mortgage-rates-1.3854172

“TD Bank has raised its fixed mortgage rates, ahead of a similar move by the Royal Bank of Canada as the costs of borrowing rise”

Oh oh
Guest
Oh oh

632 e 20th down to 1180000 another 20k bye bye

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

A house in South Granville at 1611 W. 61st was bought only last March for $3,535,000 and it is now listed for $3,000,000.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Someone needs to create a speadsheet with these examples.
Purchased date and price
Sold date and actual price
Thos would be great.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

1611 W 61st sold for $2.68M in June 2015, and then flipped for $3.5M in March 2016.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Perhaps the bills will reconsider their theory that, when prices fall, owners will simply choose not to sell, and realize that, when prices fall, it is the owners who cannot choose not to sell who set those very prices.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Better to lose half a million now than a million in Spring.

Ulsterman
Member

I posted to my wife’s facebook (she has hundreds of “friends”) the article about YOY prices declining 6%. Almost immediately the comments generally followed the theme that prices wouldn’t go down too much more because, “…people here just won’t sell if the price is too low”. Yup, that’s the level of Vancouver-is-so-special delusion so many people live under here.

Ktown
Guest
Ktown

Yes just like 2 years ago the buyers said they wouldnt buy if it went up too high… hah!

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well, considering that prices are set at the margins, they’ll be in for a rude awakening.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

When the shoeshine boy gives real estate tips, it’s time to sell.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Typical behaviour for any type of addiction – alcoholism, drugs, junk food, real estate…

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

I struggle against people with that type of response all the time. So far I’m always wrong so it’s hard to really be too enthusiastic in defending my position anymore.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Could you put that into English?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Ya. He’s wrong. You’re wronger.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

space889
Member
space889

Hmmm…so you think people in HongKong would like to send their wives and kids to Toronto with its -30C winters and foot tall snow? Or Vancouver where it usually snows at most once or twice a year?

Anyways, happy news for you guys. Mainlanders are on the way out and those classy western educated HKers are now poise to move to Canada again. It’s HK out-migration v2.0 on a bigger scale than the 90s. Best of all, most of those hundreds of thousands immigrants are already Canadian citizens. Woohoo! Think those condos prices are high now? Wait until people used to triple the prices starts coming and bump up regional population by 10% to 20% over 1 to 3 years.

Oracle’s & BPOM’s wet dream….

patriotz
Member

” to Toronto with its -30C winters ”

Even Ottawa and Montreal aren’t nearly that cold. Have you ever been to Toronto in the winter?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

some do some don’t.

i know that many mainland chinese like to have their babies in quebec because of it has much more generous child benefits. 4 years later they leave.

of course they regret not living in quebec when it comes time to pay for university for their kids since quebec also has very cheap university for residents. i’m sure there are people faking quebec residency to get this benefit, but i can’t confirm it’s happening.

patriotz
Member

Children of immigrants aren’t allowed to go to English public schools in Quebec. That might offset those child benefits.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

They learn bloody French. And English elsewhere. Where have you been. Clearly not to MTL with your ears and eyes open.

patriotz
Member

In fact I was in MTL a couple of weeks ago and I know that the guys in the kebab joints can speak English. But a couple of hours of English a week in school topped up by Dr. Phil or Jay-Z is not a substitute for a full English education.

patriotz
Member

” i’m sure there are people faking quebec residency to get this benefit”

Most of the faking is in the other direction – Quebec residents claiming to live in Ontario to avoid the former’s high income taxes. If you claim child benefits you are of course a resident for income taxes.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
Just to give some context to what space is alluding to. HK recently held city legislature elections in which a number of former China protestors were surprisingly elected to office. China has since stepped in to bar 2 of them from office due to legal technicalities and protests ensued. This is a very big deal in Chinese circles even in Vancouver. I don’t pretend to know what effect it has on the HK residents who are also Canadians. I do believe it will add some pressure for those who may want to seek “more stable” conditions in Vancouver. To be fair, a lot of those citizens of convenience left Vancouver to return to HK after 1997 when it was apparent HK would still be relatively independent. And in general I know of others who even now intend on leaving Vancouver… Read more »
history
Guest
history

looking forward to your explanation how you and your Hk buddies will be productive citizens in Canada, hasnt been the case for a full generation.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Many of my peers, friends and buddies hold STEM degrees or are professionals of some sort and earn wages in careers related to their degrees, even the ones from HK. I think they are fairly productive and respectable members of our society.. You might even enjoy talking to them if you gave them a chance.

history
Guest
history

wages in VANCOUVER

you mus

history
Guest
history

sòrry

wages in Vancouver?

im puzzled

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

The ones out of country earn wages out of country, but when they come back here to live they will have to get jobs here. I consider they will be productive members of the city.

I think all that matters to the rest of us is that if they reside here, they earn wages, pay taxes locally and do their civic duty in various areas.

space889
Member
space889

Well, how likely are barring those anti-China councilors going to affect day to day biz? Probably 0. China isn’t going to go crazy with innovation / economy killing regulations, unlike here who thinks regulation solves everything.

Most of what China do realistically have no effects 99% of the time to 99% of the folks. There are a lot of angst among HKers about the economy and the sad fact that their little isn’t the jewel of China anymore, and frankly they aren’t nearly as rich as their poor uneducated uncultured mainland cousins. No longer can they go across the border, flash cash and be treated like kings like in the good old times. Nor do the mainlanders come groveling to HK willing to do any menial job and take any and all humiliations.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

No, the mainlanders don’t come to Hong Kong to grovel, but they still come there to piss and shit in places where no decent human being would ever piss and shit.

And innovation? China? What are you, retarded?

They don’t innovate, they just steal America’s ideas.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

Space When is the last time you have been anywhere in Canada other than Vancouver?
I grew up is the prairies lots of South Asian and Pilipino and Chinese there now wasn’t when I grew up. I don’t think they are dreaming of Vancouver since they have businesses, jobs ect.
The largest Asian group immigrating to Canada is Philipinos then south Asian then Chinese.

space889
Member
space889

So, I’m talking about HK migration. There are 300K+ Canadian citizens in HK right now. Most of them were children who migrated to Vancouver during the 90s and went back after univ. Maybe you should learn some history? Most of them have no intention to send their wife & kids to the prairies to run a biz and earn a living.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Just goes to show Vancouver has been sold out without a single shot fired.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

makes no difference to a money launderer which city they stash their cash in given that they have no intention of actually living here.

space889
Member
space889

Uhmm what?! They are planning to send at least their wife and kids here. However is that not having no intention to actually live here?

Foo Man
Guest
Foo Man

ever been to Richmond?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

your point?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

It’s an Asian city now…in case you haven’t realized it yet. Money laundering is now secondary.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You say that like it’s a bad thing.

Donald T
Guest
Donald T

It won, they just issue more shares to dilute what you own and work for. Built a wall and stop the convertible Bentley carrying the foreign students their 5-Properties moms.

Built the wall.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Palm Springs is a dying town.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Interest rates will go up, says former Bank of England deputy – but it could take many years”, The Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/16/interest-rates-will-go-up-says-former-bank-of-england-deputy—b/

“Interest rates will start to rise in coming years as the population ages and the middle-aged savers who dominate the economy start to retire and become spenders, according to Sir Charlie Bean, a former deputy Governor of the Bank of England.”

HAMster
Guest
HAMster

This Charlie Bean guy has it backwards; when people retire they generally don’t become spenders. When people are middle aged they are spenders on houses, cars, vacations, etc.

patriotz
Member

He didn’t phrase it well. What he really meant is that retirees become negative savers, i.e. they spend more than their incomes because they are using up their retirement assets (that includes things like negative mortgages). It your spending versus income that matters, not just how much you spend.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

How many people are actually saving any money? I don’t know about Britain, but not many here in Vancouver. Lots are going to be working until they die,.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

vancouver = ponzi house of cards economy

space889
Member
space889

Seems like every bear has investment portfolios into at least hundreds of thousands, all just waiting to pounce on hapless owners when they are down and helpless.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Markets are almost certain the Fed is hiking interest rates in December”, Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/markets-almost-certain-fed-hiking-interest-rates-in-december-2016-11

“Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probability (WIRP) function, a market-based tracker of the likelihood of different interest rate corridors, now shows investors are pricing in a 96% chance the Fed raises its key interest rate 25 basis points to a range of 0.50% to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting on December 13 and 14.”

Diadora
Guest
Diadora

Not a 100% yet, they don’t call her Chicken Yellen for nothing. The US needs a strong and more decisive person in charge of Fed Rev.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

yeah, don’t bet on things that look too obvious. imho one more big rug pull before year end to ensure mkts go parabolic into final days of 2016 = massive bonuses for wall street.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Here’s how much mortgage payments will go up as banks hike rates”, Global News

http://globalnews.ca/news/3067913/heres-how-much-mortgage-payments-will-go-up-as-banks-hike-rates/

“Some homeowners across Canada, and those trying to enter the market, should expect to spend more money on mortgage payments as both RBC and TD Bank have raised mortgage rates in recent weeks.”

“And it’s only going to get more expensive.”