Can it happen here?

Ulsterman commented yesterday sharing an exchange with a local radio host.  Will the current price drops end up the start of something bigger or a rehash of 2009?


I sent an email to Lynda Steele on CKNW because she stated that she was confused by the local market. Some say prices are down, and yet others say they’re going up. Then they quoted the BC Assessment report that came out today and is warning that assessments will be up 30-50%. I explained in my email that since prices peaked in Spring 2016, they had since made a fairly significant correction.

She responded and asked if i were a realtor. I replied with:

No, i just take a keen interest in the local market but i have no “official” expertise. But neither do i make my living from encouraging people to buy or sell a house, so I have no vested interest either. It’s always a good time to buy or sell according to BC Realtors, so when i hear they are guests on radio shows I don’t put much faith in their advice.

My understanding of markets before corrections is as thus. First sales collapse (check), sellers desperately hang on, refusing to make significant discounts – price stickiness ( check), eventually some people have to sell (job losses, moves, divorces, debt loads etc) and this sets the new price – already happening in the single family home market.

By Spring there will be a tsunami of houses hitting the market as people try to beat the price drops and of course buyers figure this out and wait for lower prices, compounding the problem for buyers. This has happened in all markets that have corrected, from the US, to Ireland, to Spain. Vancouver will feel the pain too. With all the new mortgage qualification rules, foreign buyer taxes, so-to-be reduced AirBnB gravy train, rising interest rates etc, I think you’d be foolhardy not to just wait and see before buying. There’s almost no upside potential, but a massive risk of watching hundreds of thousands of equity get wiped out in months.

Imagine someone who has moved from a condo to a townhouse over the years and just recently leveraged to the maximum to buy a house this Spring. Maybe they put $500,000 down and borrowed a million. With the already-happened 20% correction they’ve watched $300,000 disappear. It won’t take much more before a decade of equity accumulation is gone. Leverage is wonderful when prices are rising, but it’s brutal when they go down.

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
>By Spring there will be a tsunami of houses hitting the market yes, the mythic vancouver real estate tsunami. honestly, that email reads like a rant. the fact that you guy’s don’t see it is a good example of bear logic. “agree, waves of listngs will come and for various reasons. Like a tsunami, it strikes in waves and quickly without much warning.” 7 years 11 months ago “Tsunami of listings will start next week. The “new” spring market.There will be “no” ozone when it heats up and scorches MLS.” 3 years 10 months ago “In my opinion, the bigger story in Vancouver real estate is the huge volume of new condo units that will continue to pour onto the local market over the next year or two. The reason why I believe this tsunami of new condo projects is… Read more »
duh
Guest
duh

So we’ll put your vote down in the ‘No. It can not happen here’ column then. 😀

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You’re right, people should stop using the word tsunami.

It’s actually a DELUGE of listings.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Like every spring.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Every time I blow into this balloon, someone says it will pop. It hasn’t popped yet, so I’m sure I can keep blowing forever.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Exactly. That’s Bull logic.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

you’re reasoning by analogy. another example of bear logic.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s a fair analogy, keeping in mind that it is in response to your argument which is only that people have said the same in the past and it has not turned out to be the case. I’m guessing that you are fully aware that such an argument has no basis in logic. I’m just trying to be friendly and come down to your level.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The reality is that houses were underpriced in the recent past. Those who think prices will return to those levels are delusional.

Will prices decrease? Sure, at some point. Will you be able to pick up a 1000sqft view condo downtown for under $100K just because you can in some Arizona backwater? Unlikely.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

“Will prices decrease? Sure, at some point.”

Prices have already decreased. I have seen listings sold for under asking, and sold prices for comparable units in parts of both Richmond and Vancouver are below prices fetched in the summer. The question is how much more they will decrease.

tedeastside
Member
tedeastside

Vancouver has much nicer weather than AZ.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It does in the summer.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Underpriced by what metric?

It’s worth noting that they last time you could get a 10000 sqft with a view downtown for under 100K was probably in the mid-eighties. Definitely not the recent past.

That type of property rents for about 4K, so somewhere in the 400 to 600 K range would be reasonable.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I never said you could have bought one in Vancouver for that price recently. Also you should know better than to try an explain complex market mechanics via simple metrics and technical analysis (tealeaf reading). Even more so when most here can’t even do a fair buy/rent comparison without fabricating BS numbers.

My “metric” is experience of (far higher) prices in other places around the world. Even until last year even condos here were quite cheap.

But I’m not here to try and persuade you – by all means side with those who’ve predicted a crash every month since the Olympic closing ceremony.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Can you list some comparable places that have far higher prices?

history
Guest
history

cough, cough,… metric system

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Sorry. That went over my head. What do you mean?

history
Guest
history

Metric System was introduced into Canada in 1970. It was hated by the people. There is a danger with this analogy, we are mixing noun and verb. It also helps if you understand astrology, and the dynamics between PET and Junior.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

So tell, me are you a frequent user of marijuana?

Foo Man
Guest
Foo Man

Even though evidence suggests I’m spitting into the ocean, I will continue to believe I am instead blowing into this balloon.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

What do you envision then, short-term history repeating infinitely by default , lowest interest rates and changed mortgage rules removing all restrictions, RE buying incentives for Chinese investors, foreign students and TFVs, climate change, booming economy and insanely increased local incomes, or some other surprise that we haven’t heard of yet before?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

short term? lol.

space889
Member
space889

Looks like you touched a nerve reposting bears past predictions and reopening some old wounds. Interesting that most homeowners and some well adjusted renters don’t get upset like this. But the growling bears who are trapped in dank moldy basements and likely with pent up frustration do.

I still think that BPOM & Combat Roach, Yunak, Vangrl, etc would all be happier and likely more successful if they just accept their fate of no true love from opposite sex, and just get a room and work out the frustration. Just get a few extra tubes of lubes. After all, with all their 6 / 7 figures investment portfolios, I’m sure you can afford a few tubes.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Is your vulgarism part of the traditional folklore or you were badly treated during the childhood? Either way, you should look for help.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I always wonder about that too. I don’t think he/she/it is a very good representative of their culture, whatever it may be. Or maybe he/she/it is cutting edge, at the cusp of a new age of vile misogyny and bullying heralded by Trump

YVR
Guest
YVR

“By Spring there will be a tsunami of houses hitting the market”

So far no tsunami of listings but prices are down and clearly continue to trend down. We are only 4 months into the foreign buyers tax and weeks into the CMHC changes and prices are easily down 20%. If the current trend continues prices will be down 70% within 2 to 3 years. No tsunami of listings needed.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not down 20% or anywhere near that south of Fraser river.

Maybe 5%

After like 40% increase over last year and half.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Who cares about south of the Fraser River? Having said that sawdust houses in Slurry will be $200k within a couple of years.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

I forget who it was, but someone did some analysis of multi year pricing trends and charted it out here some days ago, and his charts showed that listings volumes don’t change significantly YOY during crashing or rising prices, but sales volumes did.

He drew upon that data to posit that prices were determined by demand, not by supply, so what we want to see going into spring is low demand. We should not expect a “tsunami of listings”.

I’d like to see strong listings, lower sales volumes, aka a low sales to list ratio.

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

oh deal, stupid bears have been fear mongering since 2004. every time there is a correction, they come out of their hibernation and eat rotten fish; just to crawl back to their hidings a year later. What else is new!

patriotz
Member


‘Danger Report’: Real estate pros fret court could break lock on secret sales data

One of the (Toronto Real Estate) board’s main arguments is that openly posting a home’s final selling price compromises the privacy of sellers and buyers.

Which is complete BS, since land titles are public record in Ontario just as they are in BC.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

I think the valid part of their argument would be the easy and availability of the info. It’s much harder to get the info from Land Title Offices than from an easy to use, online database that is available 24/7.

PS. I’m pro this data being available publicy in an only searchable format, preferably with an API so entrepreneurs and enterprising individuals can mine the data and create additional services from it.

patriotz
Member

“I think the valid part of their argument would be the easy and availability of the info.”

It’s already directly available to any realtor, who is free to pass it on to clients. I think that’s what they are PO’d about, that their members would lose their carrot.

specuskeptic
Member

We all know what happens to businesses whose models rely upon an asymmetry of information/knowledge in this information age.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

What?

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

I believe it should be public information on an easy to search website, preferably with an API for third party query. That doesn’t negate the fact that such easy access affords much less “privacy” of the information, so their argument is valid regardless of whether such info should be private or not.

space889
Member
space889

So, why should a private entity that spend money and time collecting and storing this info should make it free for everyone else to access and profit off? If the info is already public in the land title office, why can’t the entrepreneurs access that to provide more value added services? Why must they get a free coattail ride of the RE boards?

How would your company like it if gov’t deemed that all its info must be made public free of charge in the interest of public? After you have spend tons of money and years of work to collect, clean, store, and process that info? And then watch people profit off that free access?

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I don’t see why the real estate board should own it. Librarians spend time and money collecting and storing books: that doesn’t mean that they own the books. There’s no reason whatsoever why the real estate board should have proprietary rights over the prices of houses bought and sold; that they do at present is simply robbery of a publicly generated resource.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
I’ve seen this argument by realtors as well, and I don’t disagree with it in principle. But let’s look at this objectively. The Real Estate Board is not spending money collecting this info. Realtors submit the info themselves, and the storage and display of this info isn’t some huge enterprise. I’m sure you or I could code something to handle this in a week’s worth of work. Regardless, let’s say for the sake of fairness that there’s a cost to defray. That cost is either the cost of doing business (like any business paying for licenses, certification, Accounting, EI, CPP), or maybe it can be passed down to anyone who wants to subscribe to the system. Heck, give me the rights to manage the info and make it public, as long as you let me monetize it I’ll take on… Read more »
Burnaby Bear
Guest
Burnaby Bear

If you read Canadian privacy legislation (yes, I have) you will realize that the RE boards do NOT own the information. The information is owned by the vendor and buyer.

Given that the information is made public (on MLS) during the sale period, it is not unreasonable to expect that it will remain public – at least the numbers; the names of the parties could (and should) be wiped.

SpacedOut
Guest
SpacedOut
Why not just have the land title office make it available online? For that matter, why not just collect all the metrics that should be avail;able to the general public as part of the title transfer process and put it in a public database? If Realtors have shown us anything over the years it’s incompetency and deceit. This information is better collected and disseminated through a legal disclosure process Property tax assessment should be the same (shared or not). Require the form to be completed and returned showing citizenship status, and tie to to a SIN #, DL #, Passport #, etc. Put all the questions to rest. This is in the interest of any municipality, and is very easy to enforce via property tax fines for not submitting. That’s what I would do. A lot of this information should… Read more »
yvr2zrh
Member
I’ve done some analysis of the sales / inventory / listing numbers for the past 15 years. Based on this, I have built some models from which I can see the “momentum” of the market. It’s a model which takes all the average seasonality into consideration. From this, I can also make certain predictions – These are predictions only – and are based on technical analysis. I am thinking of writing these down to see how accurate it is. Here are some things of note. 1.) The market we have now, started its inflection point in April. That was the time at which the rate at which upward market pressure started to slow. Market pressure continued to be upward until July, when it became sharply downward. August was sharply down as well, but not as much as July. September, had… Read more »
Sebastien
Guest
Sebastien

Interesting analysis.

Maybe one day Hollywood will make a movie equivalent to “The Big Short” with you in it.

space889
Member
space889

They say insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results. The bears ecstatic, if not almost orgasmic, joy at the latest housing correction numbers, despite being wrong again and again, seem to fit the bill perfectly. And hate, self-loathing, violent outbursts also fits very well with the psychological profile of those afflicted with this insanity disease.

Man, it’s going to be fun watching this bear gong show as they go on a self-destructive rampage. Gonna pop some popcorn, sit far back in the safety zone, and enjoy this show.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Gonna pop some popcorn, sit far back in the safety zone, and enjoy this show.”

Where is the safety zone? Your rental house.

Have you seen the Richmond flyers? They are coming for people like you.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Pipe down, racist.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
You are right that this does happen from time to time, where some posters will count their chickens before they hatch and will post vindicated victory posts predicting doom. I’ve watched this market since 1999. Unlike some uber bears I was not on the sidelines the whole time (owned between 2002 to 2012), so I might not feel as much pain as some. You often like to lump all “bears” into one monolithic group and chastise this group as a whole, delighting in “their” suffering. The reality is that bears and bulls exist on a spectrum and all of us have our own opinions, hopes, fears, and emotions. I don’t hate current homeowners and I don’t wish doom upon them. What I care about is that the value of homes need to be sustainable for those who wish to live… Read more »
Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

PS. maybe, in spite of being a homeowner, you are as much victim of this bubble as angry bears, as you clearly have become more and more toxic as the years have gone by. The city is getting ugly, and housing prices is a big part of that unhealthy vibe. Owning in that environment must change a man.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“But the constant sense of instability in Vancouver has led to a social and political backlash. There are rising tensions between Chinese and non-Chinese, but also between wealthy new Chinese immigrants and the middle-class ethnic Chinese they are displacing. And there is rising hostility between those who own homes and those who have stopped looking — a hostility that may be increasingly familiar in Seattle.

“If someone asks, ‘Do you own?’ and you answer “Yes,” then right away, you can see the distrust,” says Gary Lui, an affordable housing advocate in Burnaby. “It has put up invisible walls between people. We’re literally drawing lines between people. Friends don’t trust each other. People don’t trust each other.”

http://crosscut.com/2016/12/vancouver-real-estate-foreign-investment-lessons-seattle/

From yesterday, amazing article…

space889
Member
space889

I had some good teachers on this blog about what’s the proper way to behave and believe.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

You know the interesting thing is they say your personality, habits, and behaviour is a blend of the 5 closest friends you spend the most time with. Some of the things BPOM, chilled, and combat roach say are grossly negligent and offensive, so I can guess either their friends are equally uncouth, or they hang out alot on this blog. What’s that say about you though?

space889
Member
space889

That’s I’m privileged to have such esteemed teachers and a great blog admin who protect freedom of expression and refuse to kick / ban these great model posters, bear, and champion of Canadian values!

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Oh! I’ll say “I told you so” alright. ESPECIALLY to the ones who looked at me like I was some sort of a lunatic for even “suggesting” there was such a thing as a bubble. I’ll also be sure to say it to the ones who gloated over how “wealthy” they all were with no qualms whatsoever about whoever might have overheard them and was “never going to be in the same league”…

space889
Member
space889

There you go….when you are surrounded by toxic mist, what is going to happen.

patriotz
Member

“They say insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results. ”

Isn’t that what happens when you roll dice? Anyway, this saying (which is often incorrectly attributed to Einstein), appears to have actually originated with Narcotics Anonymous.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Indeed. It is also worth bearing in mind that doing the same thing and expecting different results is also the definition of practice (such as on a musical instrument), training for improvement (such as in sports), fishing, gambling and a host of other human endeavors. It’s meme that makes little sense.

space889
Member
space889

But in case of practice, you aren’t doing the exact same thing, or else you wouldn’t get better.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Have you ever done a physical workout?

Loon
Guest
Loon

I prefer, ” if you don’t succeed, try, try again”.

history
Guest
history

give us a quote from Tesla, sniveller

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Another great contribution to the city from China…

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Real estate bubble, fentanyl, space889…..nothing good has ever come out of china.

space889
Member
space889

So when are you going to throw away your iPhone or Android phone? Cuz they came out of China.

And didn’t Great Britain fight 2 wars to ensure the international rights to export opium to another country? Even if opium is illegal in the exporting country? And that the import country should pay all military expense & war reparations? What were those wars called again??

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Hahahaha. You think China invented the iphone?

You sure do a lot of touche ad hominem ‘reasoning’. Two wrongs don’t make a right. you don’t prove anything about the moral permissible of bringing in fentanyl by pointing to the history of bringing in opium.

space889
Member
space889

So iPhone are manufactured in USA / Canada?

history
Guest
history

nothin made in Canada, but bogus hedonists

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Far more more important than manufacturing is invention. Location of manufacture can change without much problem. A culture that gives rise to invention and implementation of invention is less easy to come by.

nufio
Guest

you dont have to go as far as the opium wars, canada still exports asbestos while it is still illegal to use it for construction here.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

But not illegal to rent out apartments with asbestos behind the cracks in the walls by the radiators.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Clark says Notley’s trip to B.C. to promote pipeline took courage
http://globalnews.ca/news/3112734/clark-says-notleys-trip-to-b-c-to-promote-pipeline-took-courage/

>>> and not surprisingly, Krusty does the slip out the back door routine not wanting to declare with certainty one way or the other if she’s on board with this.

squeak
Member
squeak
It sounds like Vancouver/vicinities is bursting in the seams, unraveling: drugs, shootings, homelessness, tent cities, huge debt loads, corruption in government, corruption in real estate, housing bubble beyond what an honest Canadian afford, lying news media, food banks screaming for funds, charities needing more and more. Maybe it would be better if BC was run by the mafia, can it get any worse? Or wait a minute, is it some foreign country running this place now (behind the scenes) ? I am not just getting the pop corn out, I am secretly planning to exit. And I rather have a scrooge Christmas and stay afloat than an anxious debt ridden Christmas, because January always comes after December. And does a burst come after a bubble? There is something they are not coming out in the clear with. Again, these are… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

On bubble burst.

Canada is taking the most immigrants per capita out of any first world country in the world. And within, YVR is ground zero.

patriotz
Member

Actually Christy held a news conference immediately after JT’s announcement and said that her 4 conditions (or is it 5) were very close to being fulfilled and she was optimistic she would give it the green light by April. Saw it live.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

yes, but she did not speak with notley face to face or answer any questions regarding her visit. besides if it suits her she can just say ALL conditions were not met and torpedo the deal at any given moment

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Slip? She’s wearing a slip this time you say? Where is her sari?

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

I’d watch the two of them fuck.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

I’m pretty sure that $800K sale was shady. Happy it made it to the 6p.m news, all involved in that deal are probably crapping themselves.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Remember all those news stories in the past couple years where a house was listed way under value, only to sell for $600K over asking an make the front page…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

surely they all received a memo from upstairs to not discuss the matter any further. 100% certain there is something fishy about that sale.

paulb
Member

New
97
Price Change
24
Sold
128

TI:8535

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Wow. Look at the sold.

7K party coming Jan 2

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

By that time, it will be almost half a year since the 15% tax. No effect.

And now most here are saying wait till the listings surge in spring. Why? Is there another policy change coming?

Or is it because you “think” it’s going to happen? LMAO

oh la la
Guest
oh la la

yes. Actually looks like that 7k is going to happen again this coming Jan. In spring it is also about surge in buyers side – with second year in a row of low inventory, prices really not going drop any further. Anyone can say anything beforehand…but wait and see.

oh la la
Guest
oh la la

thanks Paul. Keep up the good work.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Regarding a supposed and hoped-for Deluge/Tsunami of Listings, there is no evidence for that.

From 2007 – 2016, total annual listings averaged 57,300, and fluctuated +/-10% of that value in good times (2015: 57,300) and bad (2008: 62,600).
https://i.imgsafe.org/8b9fd28519.png

At best, there is a weak correlation between annual listings and annual sales. In years with low sales, the total listings tend to be higher. However I suspect this is due largely to expired listings being relisted as in “New Listing! Hurry on this! First open house Sunday!”
https://i.imgsafe.org/8baf20ddbe.png

If sales remain low, expect a slow build in total inventory over 2017.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

2016 REBGV Annual sales: 40,000 (est) or 123% of Average

Predictions based on Annual Sales Only (2007-2015 correlations)
2016 Peak Inventory: 10, 130
2016 End of year Inventory: 7,500
2016 Y/Y change in HPI : +18%
2016 End of Year HPI (Dec 2016): $896,600

Observed 2016 (to date)
2016 Peak Inventory: 10, 070 (Sep 27)
2016 End of year Inventory: 8,535 (Dec 7)
Nov 2016 Y/Y change in HPI : +20.5%
2016 End of Year HPI (Nov 2016): $908,300

Note that 2016 data were not used to develop the correlations. Sales are almost all that matters.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Inventory goes up

Bears: “inventory is growing at an alarming rate. The trend is very bad for indebted homeowners and my poor and I’ll finally be able to laugh in the face of everyone who did better than me!”

Inventory goes down

Bears: “actually inventory doesn’t matter….”

That’s bearlogic folks.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Bear 1: says something
Bear 2: says something else
Hyper-mega-Bull: says something really dumb and no cares cause the market is crashing and his equity is getting wiped out.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

if you don’t what I say why do you read it? Must be a bearlogic thing.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Makes me laugh. Bulllogic is so funny.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Anyone know how to send a message to VCI Admin (aka Pope)? Seems like any time one problem is addressed (in this case voting button issue) we lose some other functionality (in this case the sorting feature eg. by newest, by rating, etc…

Ulsterman
Member
So i got a nice reply from Lynda but i don’t feel it right to post it verbatim here as it was a private message. She said i made good points and her quandary is whether to sell her condo, rent, and buy in again later. She’s made this point on air too when talking to expert guests. Like most people, she doesn’t know what to do at this point in the market cycle. I was guilty of hyperbole with my “tsunami of listings” comment. Who the hell knows, but i’m assuming that this may be a bigger Spring surge than normal. Hopefully it will create further downwards pressure on prices. Bear Vancouverite said, “If there’s a massive crash, my main emotion will be hope and a lifting of a sense of doom and gloom.” With family in Northern Ireland,… Read more »
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

I absolutely love this comment :

“Bear Vancouverite said, “If there’s a massive crash, my main emotion will be hope and a lifting of a sense of doom and gloom.” With family in Northern Ireland, i was closely acquainted with their massive crash (50-70%). I’ve said it before, but it was a wonderful reset for that society. The younger generation regained hope that they could buy a home in which to raise a family. Flippers and speculators disappeared. People became less arrogant and obnoxious. It just became a much nicer, less stressful place to live. One would think after such a catastrophic price meltdown that the economy would be ruined – it wasn’t.”

With so much angst and stress in this city now, one can only hope.

Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
Guest
Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Good little power point about Ireland’s property correction.

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/Crisis/KellyCrisis.pdf

space889
Member
space889

Didn’t most of the families in their prime earning years and thus highest contribution to society get royally screwed by the RE meltdown and the resultant debt problems? Hence an exodus of young Irish talents to other parts of the world to escape the hopeless of the situation back home?

I doubt the ones graduating from univ now face much better future. Sure lower house prices sound good, but when your pay is next to nothing, I don’t think the low housing prices really matters.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You might want to gain a passing acquaintance with recent Irish economic history before you start randomly typing.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I know there are people in real life who think like you, but I find it very hard to get my mind around this thought: so-and-so are “in their prime earning years and thus highest contribution to society” There is much unpaid work in our society that is of extremely high value. Official economics is not the real economics.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

China Should Heed Pearl Harbor’s Lessons

Another Asian power is in danger of repeating Japan’s mistakes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-06/why-china-should-heed-lessons-of-pearl-harbor

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

More bullish news for housing and landlords. McCallum at it again..

http://www.voiceonline.com/faster-processing-and-shorter-wait-times-for-spousal-reunification-ircc/

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Where is this market that is crashing by like 20% in price? Maybe a $5 million home ut anything less than $1 million is not moving price wise.

Show me a detached house in Surrey thats gone down 20% and i’ll put an offer on it.

Its unbelievable how you guys are so out of touch with reality.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Why are you so obsessively concerned about totally irrelevant things, like some group of people that have nothing to do with you is “out of touch with reality, naive or shortsighted”? Why is that your biggest pain?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Because you guys keep spewing nonsense and hurting the housing affordability cause. The people who want the status quo are laughing at you guys. Ever think that group think here has you guys off on a tangent?

For example, tell me what is this magical policy change that is going to cause a “deluge of listings” come spring? Oh, because you ‘feel’ it? Stuff like this..

The 15% tax did not cause a crash yet some of you keep saying we are in one. How delusional is that?

These kinds of statements without fact discredits this entire site even without the racist tones displayed by some.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

I don’t understand what are you trying to say here but it sounds like you are selflessly fighting for some “factual truth” that according to you everyone is aware of except a few of us delusional sinners at VCI, who might eventually cause confusion and jeopardize “some strategy” related to housing affordability issue, right? Still, it doesn’t make any sense, so can you elaborate further? However, I believe your time would be much better spent if you volunteer at the DTES and work with drug addicts and people with mental issues to help them with their recovery and the right life choices.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

There’s no danger of group think here

There are many different opinions being shared (some based on no facts unfortunately).

Does it look like Hyper mega bull for instance has the same investment thesis as Patriotz?

Or that Boombust saying there will be a 70% crash is what Newcommer and Ulsterman believe? If you asked Boombust to stake his life on his prediction he will do so without hesitation. Me, I won’t take that bet even with a $100M prize.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Absolutely! 100%!

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

What’s going to happen to HAM supposedly going to Seattle when Trump is through with China?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

When Trump gets through with China, there may not be any Chinese money left to spend on RE.

StrataHacker
Guest
StrataHacker

You tell us since you fellate them.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

look small like my new acronym CREAM is getting traction. Good to see!

Just me
Guest
Just me

The Most Momentous Event of 2016 Happened In Between Brexit and Trump
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-08/the-most-momentous-event-of-2016-happened-in-between-brexit-and-trump

For financial markets, the most momentous day of 2016 wasn’t Nov. 8, when President-elect Donald Trump prevailed in the U.S. elections, nor June 23, when the U.K. voted to leave the European Union.

It was July 11, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett.

“That day was the day that the greatest bull market ever in the bond market ended,” he said during the bank’s year-ahead outlook presentation on Wednesday. “And since then, yields have been rising, and that without a doubt is the biggest event of 2016.”

The world is changing fast. Bulls fail to realize this.

Bondman
Guest
Bondman

The selling of bonds is almost over.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Bond markets everywhere are getting destroyed”, Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/treasury-bond-market-update-december-8-2016-2016-12

“Bond markets all over the world are getting demolished after the European Central Bank announced it would extend its quantitative-easing program until at least December 2017 but would scale down its asset purchases to €60 billion a month from €80 billion.”

Bondman
Guest
Bondman

Please. put it in context. Look at the Canada 10 year bond over the last 30. record low rates continue.

http://ca.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-10-year-bond-yield

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Fake job, fake education, fake residency: 15 clients of fraudulent immigration scheme now kicked out of Canada

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/fake-job-fake-education-fake-residency-15-clients-of-fraudulent-immigration-scheme-now-kicked-out-of-canada-1.3886719

yet naive canadians think that the foreign buyer tax and empty house tax is going to make a difference.

tut-tut. some people never learn.

sad!

C.Junta
Member
C.Junta

Good news – it’s in the mass media.
Bad news – 15 people figure is a joke.

I would offer a $100 reward to whistleblowers to make it 1500 within a few months, it would be taxpayers’ money well spent.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

I guess they are working on it…

“The CBSA says another 500 ex-clients are also under investigation, bringing the total facing possible deportation to more than 800.

So far, 44 removal orders have been issued, but some have pending appeals.”

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

China should patent word “FAKE” and make it a national trademark.

history
Guest
history

f@ke, hey, dress it up like a christmas tree. maybe F#KE gift for twitter, F♡Ke for your dating site, F÷Ke for yor you nerd buddies, F%ke for your RE pals…

space889
Member
space889

Reading typical moronic, liberalturd & alt-right comments from bears here is sure fun.

I guess it’s true what they say, only morons believe they are experts in something and proud of their opinions when they are demonstrably wrong and wrong and wrong.

Ignorance is a bliss though and I guess most of bears will just have to take solace in China bashing and crying about how unfair it is they can’t buy that SFH in Van West for a few more decades in their moldy basements. I think I’m going to run out of popcorns before the bears on here will be buying their first micro-condos.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

It’s better to be wrong, wrong and wrong and THEN right, instead of the other way around. You should try it sometime.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
This is simply not true. The length of time you are right and wrong matters a lot, since our time on this earth is not infinite. If you’ve been waiting since 2002 to buy, you will have waited 14 years. A person waiting from the age of 27 would be 41 today. If it then takes 5 more years to reach reasonable prices that person would be 47 years old taking on a 25 year mortgage. He’ll be paying down debt into his 70s. Let’s not kid ourselves, many on this blog (past and presence) have been waiting more than 10 years. My guess is some of the people waiting today have kids entering or leaving high school by now. If all this downward pressure now reverses itself before a major crash can occur, you can bet yourself some of… Read more »
Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
What I’m trying to get at is that hardcore and self righteous bears need to recognize and acknowledge that they have been wrong. They have been wrong many times and for a long time, and being wrong has cost them financially, emotionally, and has affected their quality of life. Some are desperate now to be right. Time will tell whether the next few years will finally give us relief. I readily admit this. I had opportunities, I let them go due to my belief that housing was overpriced. I bet my well being and quality of life on a financial thesis and I was wrong. I accept full responsibility for this and I am lucky that my personal quality of life is still very high. If I was a homeowner today, having bought in 2008, 2009, 2010, or 2011 when… Read more »
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

See my previous reply to that space cadet something or other.

Ditto for you.

Foo Man
Guest
Foo Man

Noooo!!! Everyone is blowing into a balloon! It has to pop! Fundamentals! I have been sitting back eating popcorn watching the real estate crash since 2006!

Can’t wait to pick up that sweet house in west van! Prices down 6% last month! Luckily I have $4 million saved by renting and contributing to my diversified portfolio. Stupid home moaners.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

good to see some aren’t subject to bearlogic.

if you need a new thesis, may i suggest this: China rule everything around me.

It even has a nice acronym: CREAM.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Have you encountered anyone who denies it?

space889
Member
space889
Very good post Bear Van, though I doubt you will change any minds here. At this point, my view is does a crash really even matter anymore? Say you had your eyes on that old charm 80yrs un-renovated Dunbar house on a big lot. Does it matter if that $3M house drops 30%, 50%, or even 70% to just $1M? Add in probably $100K+ reno cost to bring everything up to code & safety (assuming you care about that stuff) and probably $100K+ in more cost to modernize and put in whatever fancy appliances, chef kitchen, etc. That’s probably $1.2M to $1.4M in total cost, still out of the reach of most average family here, unless they have previous savings, inheritance, equity, or in the top 1% of wage earners. Add in probably $20K/yr property tax bills. It’s still not… Read more »
Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Of course it matters. A generous 40% drop will affect detached and attached across the entire region. Someone who is buying a condo in Surrey today might suddenly have the option to buy a condo in Vancouver, where he/she may be working.

Not every person in the city will have the means to buy a SFH, nor should they. What’s more, it’s likely that someone in a career that in the 80s would have bought a SFH can not buy a SFH after the big crash, they may have to settle for a good sized townhouse in the same area. That ship migh have sailed, and we just have to be ok with that.

Ulsterman
Member
I’ve accepted the fact that I will never end up ahead of where i’d be had i just bought back in the early 2000’s. Prices are down 10-20% for SFH’s and even if they end up down 40%, those houses are STILL expensive. I’m 44 and am acutely aware that any mortgage would have me making payments until my mid sixties in the best case scenario. That of course wasn’t part of the plan. But i can also retire with a full pension at 60 and move elsewhere. Or i could pull my money out of the market and buy a townhouse around Burnaby Mountain and have almost no mortgage. So i have options. But of course now i simply have to wait this market out another 6-12 months just to see if prices continue their descent. It IS possible… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That is true in my case.

Foo Man
Guest
Foo Man

If you believe this in the context of Vancouver real estate over the last 10 years you are a bigger idiot than your previous posts indicate. NOTE: that is a really huge idiot.

space889
Member
space889

If cantthinkofagoodname is any example, it’s no wonder that bears can’t get anything right. Seriously, if you suck at doing something and repeatedly doing the exact same thing that cause you to suck, how exactly do you expect to get better? Just magic? People who are better than you is 100% not doing exactly what you are doing. They improve by doing things slightly different during each practice that make the end result better. Improvement means you are doing something better than last time, not the same as last time.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
If you want to play with semantics, you will be forced to admit that nobody has ever done the same thing twice. The “definition of insanity” meme is used to argue for changing behavior and, while there is nothing wrong with changing one’s behavior as a strategy for achieving better results, it is in no way true that this is the only sane strategy out there. For example, I had to ask my wife out three or four times before she would go on a date with me. Was I crazy? I play the same chord progression a hundred times over when learning a new song, am I crazy? People send resumes and attend interviews with dozens of companies before getting a job, are they crazy? Your basic argument is that bears are foolish for expecting change, but the only… Read more »
space889
Member
space889
Well, after getting excited at the prospect of an imminent crash, only to have all their hopes utterly crushed, I would think the bears would at least learn some humility. No, instead they simply get more callous, more toxic, more hateful, and more violent at anything & anyone who even disagree with them in the slightest, or they feel are responsible for their current lot in life, including people who are born on a different continent and who never travelled more than 100 km from their birthplace. Seriously, after the utter trashing they gave Dave and other bulls for the last 8 years, you would think they would at least re-examine their case and you know…maybe actually analyze why they might be wrong. But no, it’s more it’s all everyone else’s fault, it’s so unfair, etc, etc, etc… Seems to… Read more »
Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Well, aren’t you the class act. (or the class clown?)

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“…get a room and self-jerk each other there.”

You are must be talking from a personal experience when it comes to a collective happiness? Is that another traditional custom back at homeland? A usual way to celebrate holidays when family and friends get together at home over a dinner.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Ha ha!

Served along with the dessert.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Who are you talking about? The only really angry folks I notice here are you, BPOM, Combat roach and, to some extent, Oracle (though she is more OCD than angry). Everyone else seems to be pretty relaxed.

xyz
Guest
xyz

@ space889

You complain about the bears here but keep coming back here for more and re-commenting on it. Seriously Space, you are free to “get on with your life” and not come here if it bothers you that much.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

If I were Space, I’d just be enjoying my big Westside house and counting my money, but I’m glad we have bulls here, otherwise there would be no one to lecture.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Space is enjoying poking the bears’ stupidities and stubbornness.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Space889 lives in a strange little world of his own.

wpDiscuz