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Friday Free-for-all! December 16th 2016

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257 Comments

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday free-for-all!

This our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–Homes so pricey gov will chip in to help
–FAQs about fat family debt
–prices slide in YVR up in Toronto
–Looks like Vancouvers bubble has burst
–What benefits to new loans program?
–Bush downpayment act of 2003
–How a US rate hike will affect Canadians
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] move seems designed to undo some of the federal ramp back of housing market fuel. Bearvancouverite points out this might help developers who are seeing people backing out of presales […]

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southseacompany

“B.C. Liberals’ home-buyer plan short-term gain for long-term pain”, 24 Hours

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/12/19/bc-liberals-home-buyer-plan-short-term-gain-for-long-term-pain

“Premier Christy Clark’s home-buyers plan is short-term gain for the B.C. Liberal Party and long-term pain for both those who borrow money from the government, taxpayers and the entire B.C. housing market.”

“But for Clark this is all about getting re-elected next May. Who cares if some first-time home buyers can’t make their mortgage payments and lose their houses down the road?”

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No Money Down

I am actually surprised how unified the negative response has been.

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Oracle

No offence, but so what? The dictators are going to make sure the policy goes ahead and all the sheep can do about it is whisper.

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southseacompany

“B.C. is desperate to keep its housing bubble aloft. It won’t work”, Canadian Business

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/b-c-is-desperate-to-keep-its-housing-bubble-aloft-heres-why-it-wont-work/

“Canada’s household debt is at record highs and a reckoning is coming. B.C.’s offer to further burden the most vulnerable borrowers will surely backfire”

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Boombust

I have a feeling it DEFINITELY won’t work.

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Oracle

Its been working for 14 years now.

With high population growth rates, either rents or house prices will go up. Make it harder for people to get into housing and rents increase.

Can’t stop the population juggernaut. – That everyone is scared to talk about. Hahahah .

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Oracle

Lets see Newcomer come up with one of his “stats”. he really thinks people are still stupid nowadays.

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Spec

Yeah. Newcomer with his “facts” and “logic” and “evidence”. I’m with you Oracle: go with my guts and feelings…. also booze and wishful thinking…. and glue fumes.

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Newcomer

I can’t deny it. There are indications that some people are still stupid.

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elvince

Even the motley fool, which is all about stocks, is getting in on the CC’s dumb move:
http://www.fool.ca/2016/12/19/thanks-christy-clark-youve-just-worsened-vancouvers-housing-crisis/

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bullwhip29

Macdonald Realty opens boutique offices in Sidney and Sechelt
http://www.remonline.com/macdonald-realty-opens-boutique-offices-sidney-sechelt/

>>> tax free view properties anyone? get ’em before the next mega project is made public…

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bullwhip29

Canada Gets A New Subprime Lender – The BC Government
https://betterdwelling.com/canada-gets-new-subprime-lender-bc-government/

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bullwhip29

Premier Christy Clark mulls major tax changes in 2017
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/premier-christy-clark-mulls-major-tax-changes-in-2017-1.3902112

>>> hints of more goodies to come right on cue…

“Christy Clark has promised to change Medical Services Plan premiums — which she described as unfair…”

“…would not provide any specific details on how she plans to change the health tax…”

“…government is also considering changes to who pays the province’s property transfer tax…”

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Best place on meth

As yuan weakens, Chinese rush to open foreign currency accounts

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-forex-deposits-analysis-idUSKBN1470YZ

Things are lining up beautifully. We may actually get to witness the destruction of china under President Donald “they can keep the drone” Trump.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

are we supposed to have an emotional reaction to what he or his opponent said?

he’s just trying following his role model trump. either it will get him votes or it won’t.

is being a warrior good or bad? who cares?

it’s not a real issue. it’s just rhetoric for lowbrow emotional voters who don’t have attention span, or intelligence, or time to understand real issues.

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fomostyle

Long, but right on the money.

http://evonomics.com/joseph-stiglitz-inequality-unearned-income/

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Newcomer

Interesting analysis of inequality here.
https://t.co/jROJriG92C

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Chinabuyeverything

Interesting. But I liked the comment section even more. Poster “suburbs” very nicely explains it.

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chilled

The poor man’s Laneway House;

https://i.sli.mg/YGvXir.png

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Best place on meth

The ideal tenant for this listing will be someone with irritable bowel syndrome who likes to cook curry three times per day.

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Newcomer

Have we has this?
http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

Quite fun.

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YVR

According to Ross Kay the free mortgage program cannot be used unless you already have 5% down. A second mortgage cannot be put on a property without 5% down in cash. If true this program will not draw in any new buyers and just helps people get from 5% to 10% which is little incentive to bring in someone who is not already planning on buying.

http://www.howestreet.com/2016/12/17/this-week-in-money-83/

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Boombust

Clark is shrewd and slippery enough to bet AGAINST this program being successful. After all, potential FTB’s need to qualify under the new mortgage stress test, many of their debt loads are probably already at all-time highs and higher interest rates are in the forecast.

If ll these buyers haven’t bought in the past few years with such cheap lending rates and downright reckless lending practices, what would make them want to jump in now?

In other words, this scam/scheme is all about looking like she did “something to help” FTB’s when the May election rolls around.

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Newcomer

If you go the the site (I can’t find it now because Google is swamped by new stories but I did look) it explicitly says that you do not need 5%. Ross Kay not a very careful with facts. Nice guy and all, but not really into things like facts, spelling or grammar.

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Boombust

His Tweets can certainly be hard to figure out at times!

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Bear Vancouverite

news 1130 has a web poll up asking if the new BC homebuyer plan is a good idea.

Results so far? 51.52% say Yes. I thought it might pull the wool over some eyes, but seeing that poll… Good grief.

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Boombust

If anyone is a current homeowner, they are probably rubbing their hands together over this. It won’t change the downward trend, though.

If any government has to come forward with a last-ditch effort like this to prop up the market, things are probably worse than anyone knows.

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Best place on meth

Krusty’s personal approval rating is 37%, disapprove 56%, for a net -19. Another 7% are unsure.

Horgan’s numbers are 40 and 29 for a net of +11 but he has 31% undecided.

He still has considerable room to grow his vote, she does not. The majority of the electorate despise her.

Just like Adrian Dix, this race is Horgan’s to lose if he chooses to screw it up.

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Patiently Waiting

It is smart for Horgan to keep a low profile until the election, and to hold off on policy until the Liberals play their cards.

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fomostyle

It should be David Eby. Not Horgan.

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Patiently Waiting

These polls are probably easy to manipulate.

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Shut It Down Already

Online polls are inherently biased not only because of the readership of the site that hosts them but because the readers themselves elect whether or not to participate.

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bullwhip29

B.C. Law Society takes over part of Richmond lawyer’s practice
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-law-society-takes-over-part-of-richmond-lawyers-practice

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chilled

They’ve come for Dim Sum with Space and Newcomer and to take away BPOM. Has anyone heard from BPOM lately?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/china-military-navy-victoria-visit-1.3901923

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Abdul Lahazi

Just a recon mission or they are looking for houses, or both.

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Best place on meth

“As a Chinese immigrant living in Canada I feel so proud to witness the growing military strength and prosperity of my motherland, China,” he said.

That’s all you need to know right there.

Very disturbing.

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Combat roach

And instead of deporting that and alike garbage within 48h, after glorifying and supporting criminals they even find their way to MSM to be heard as some who is part of our society, who have to say something and eventually who can contribute with something smart and constructive, complete shame. Why do I feel like second class citizen being frequently slapped in the face?

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Whistler or bust?

China Must Curb Speculation Amid Bubble, Top Official Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-17/china-must-curb-speculation-after-bubble-grew-top-official-says

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Newcomer

Oracle, I stumbled across this and I thought you might want to comment.
https://www.biv.com/article/2015/10/bc-immigration-crashes-15-year-lows/

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chilled

I’ll comment. That is absolute bullshit. The population of Vancouver is increasing at a rate that exceeds our ability to maintain quality of life, infrastructure and public services. End of story. Stop mincing words.

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Oracle

Newcomer is a troll. Probably on federal payroll.

That article is a propaganda piece.

PNP (Provincial Nominee Immigration) is at record levels. We had a relative get approved recently Is Sask PNP program. Guess what? He is going to live in BC! Even though stats will count him as Saskatewan Immigrant.

10’s of thousands coming to bc via other provinces PNP programs because easier to get in.

Now for those that still haven’t realized that Newcomer and Patriotz are here to confuse the immigration debate : no hope for you.

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Newcomer

I’m a federal troll. That has a ring to it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBmD2prxCuY

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space889

So you are basically taking advantage of the very thing you are protesting against on this blog every day, and ask others to start an anti-immigration party to shut down exactly what you are exploiting?

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Newcomer

OK, I guess that was inaccurate and you are basing your opinion on some other data. Would you mind sharing that data with us, so that we can learn the truth?

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No Money Down

The BNN article is dated October 2015

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Newcomer

Yes. I was looking for stats about people’s plans to move in 2015, to see if they were different from the stats in Buynow’s article, when I can across this. And of course, prices surged together with this fall. I don’t imagine that you are suggesting that anything has changed in 13 months but, for what it is worth, while the report is not out yet, the raw numbers are about the same as last year.

There is nothing surprising here. Growth is weak because prices are high and jobs are few. That’s also why schools are closing. To pretend that population growth is driving price increases is ignore the plain facts.

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space889

It is not uncommon for foreign students to buy a few house & condos while they are here. And there are a lot of asset rich immigrants in Vancouver too working in minimal wage type of jobs just to keep busy or get out of the house, or simply not working at all.

Remember, any family in Beijing, Shanghai, Guanzhou who had a company dorm, or had neighborhood redeveloped pre-1990s basically got a $500K CAD+ assets handed to them. If they followed what any regular joe here did and bought more during the 30yr RE growth in those cities, they would easily sit on top of $1M or $2M+ assets right now. Nothing special needed.

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southseacompany

“First-time buyer program potentially adds fuel to hottest part of B.C.’s real estate market”, Vancouver Sun

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/first-time-buyer-program-potentially-adds-fuel-to-hottest-part-of-b-c-s-real-estate-market

“British Columbia’s new assistance program for first-time home buyers has the potential to bolster a segment of the property market that has stayed strong in the midst of sliding sales, according to one market observer.”

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southseacompany

“Editorial: Mortgage help is risky business”, Time Colonist

http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-mortgage-help-is-risky-business-1.4777157

“For years, the rule of thumb was that you shouldn’t buy a house that cost more than three times your annual income. For middle-class families these days, that’s a joke, and a cruel one at that. People are buying houses worth eight or 10 times their annual income, and they can do that only because they are mortgaged to the hilt and interest rates are low. Even a modest increase in interest rates could push many over the financial brink.”

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southseacompany

“Globe editorial: B.C. Liberals are buying votes with free money to buy houses. Good politics, bad economics”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/bc-liberals-are-buying-votes-with-free-money-to-buy-houses-good-politics-bad-economics/article33356068/

“what Ms. Clark’s government is proposing is to use taxpayer money to subsidize first-time home buyers, and in a way that will likely push up prices at the lower end of the market. We get the politics. The economics, not so much.”

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Buynow or Getlaidnever

New study finds a majority of British Columbians plan on moving http://resonanceco.com/reports/future-of-bc-housing/
http://www.insightswest.com/news/more-than-half-of-british-columbians-likely-to-move-in-the-next-5-years/

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Newcomer

Is that any different from the norm historically or elsewhere?

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Bag it and tag it

I think it’s a big deal when 27% of BC residents plan to leave the province within the next 5 yrs…

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Bag it and tag it

Or maybe that 27% of the people that are planning to move…but still…

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Shut It Down Already

It’s 27% of 51%.

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Newcomer

It sounds like that but, for all we know, that could be a low number. People leave all the time, for various reasons, and for everyone who leaves, there must be many more who dream of leaving. Without context, I don’t see that the number provides any useful information.

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chilled

Most residents of BC are here because they were unhappy in their last place of residence. BC is unique, in that it is a society of migrants. Too bad this “study” doesn’t factor this into the equation.

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Newcomer

Indeed, we have more than the average number of migrants. I’m one, as the username suggests.

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patriotz

“BC is unique, in that it is a society of migrants”

Alberta?

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Bear Vancouverite

The problem with surveys like this is that people always plan to do stuff and never get around to doing it. All talk, no action.

I can point to 50 people who say how they hate their job and want to find a new one. Not one of them has ever even looked for a job, never mind going to interviews. I know 5 guys who always say how much money they can make if they start a business. You can guess how many have started a business.

I’d be more interested to know data on people who have actually left and how those figures look against a chart of housing prices.

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Oracle

How long will it take people to realize that if you don’t address the root cause of the high house prices, changing window dressing is. It going to have any impact.

But I don’t blame the majority here for being led astray. The likes of Patriotz, Newcomer, and sometimes YVR are doing a masterful job deflecting the others here from the root causes.

No matter. The others will learn sooner or later but may be toooo late for some. In 99 days, prices are set to take off again and this time, ask Patriotz and Newcomer why they leading you astray.

But if you guys had half a brain to begin with, you should know it’s all about foreign money and temp/perm immigration.

Prepared to be bewildered by the March April stats in 2017.

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Bear Vancouverite

So exactly what are you doing, besides posting on this blog, to address the “root cause”? Could you share all the hustling you’ve been doing to fight this root cause?

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Bestplaceonearth

Poking the bears for fun!

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Oracle

So you guys don’t waste your time and lives by “trying to figure it out”.

Seriously, how many years has it been? Those dimwits on GT’s blog still haven’t figured it out after 8 years.

Unless this is entertainment or a fantasy fun time, then truth needs to be hammered into people.

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Newcomer

Don’t you find it a bit odd that this one truth, which you and every sensible person knows to be true, cannot be supported by any data.?I mean there are billions of dollars turning on this truth, right? Government policy is based on this truth. Certainly, the banks and developers know this truth and act accordingly. And yet, there is no one single source of data to support it. Can you explain why the government and the banks haven’t been able to document this truth?

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Oracle

Traitor. Troll. Treason.

Your kind were hanged not too long ago.

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Newcomer

A temper tantrum. How cute is that!

When exactly was it that people were hung for basing opinions on data? I can’t think of any instances of that.

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Shut It Down Already

He has nothing to back up his opinions. You’re wasting your time by repeatedly asking him. He’s just one of those immigrants who wants to close the door behind him.

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space889

Oh no, he made plenty clear that he wants all his cousins and relatives come and live in his house and pay rent. He just doesn’t like the rich Chinese commies. India & China doesn’t have a lot of love for each other.

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dan

who does?

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Best place on meth

India and china are both overpopulated shitholes that everyone wants to get out of.

The difference is the Indians aren’t bothering anyone and they’re quite pleasant people.

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YVR

“The difference is the Indians aren’t bothering anyone”

No, the difference is you live in Vancouver not Surrey.

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