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Friday Free-for-all! December 2nd 2016

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146 Comments

It’s the end of another work week, are you ready for the weekend?

It’s also time for another Friday Free-for-all, our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–David Dodge calls for higher rates
–Things probably pretty bad
–A ‘disorderly’ correction for Vancouver & Toronto
–CIBC exposure to real estate correction
–Co-housing lite
–Data: 2008-2015
–BCREA: prices and sales to drop in 2017
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] ‘JustMe‘ posted this article from Bloomberg about wealthy buyers moving from Vancouver to Seattle after the foreign buyer tax was implemented. […]

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Interesting. From 2006

http://www.bcbusiness.ca/housing-bubble-trouble

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bullwhip29

As Australia’s housing bubble gets bigger, the Reserve Bank prepares to blame Trump
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/01/as-australias-housing-bubble-gets-bigger-the-reserve-bank-prepares-to-blame-trump

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bullwhip29

Does Vancouver housing funk mean ‘the other shoe just dropped’? Michael Babad The Globe and Mail Published Monday, Dec. 05, 2016 5:50AM EST Last updated Monday, Dec. 05, 2016 12:17PM EST http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/does-vancouver-housing-funk-mean-the-other-shoe-just-dropped/article33202995 The other shoe? At least one economist wonders whether the collapse in Vancouver home sales means “the other shoe has just dropped” for Canada’s economy. David Madani of Capital Economics was referring in a recent report to the latest measure of economic growth, which rebounded in the third quarter at an annual pace of 3.5 per cent. But what Statistics Canada’s report also showed is that housing investment sank by 5.5 per cent in the quarter, the first contraction in about three years and tied to the Vancouver slump. Housing has been a big part of Canada’s economic performance, particularly after the thud of the oil shock and… Read more »

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southseacompany

Best line:

“Like Mr. Madani, economists believe the Vancouver easing began last February, in advance of the tax and new rules, so something else has been playing out. “In short, Vancouver’s housing bubble has burst, and we expect housing investment there to decline much further,” Mr. Madani said his report, titled “The other shoe just dropped.””

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Oracle

Madani?

Hahahahahahahahahahaha.

Read his track record. GT quotes him. LMAO

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bullwhip29

City of Vancouver to announce assistance for property owners hit with empty homes tax
http://globalnews.ca/news/3106889/city-of-vancouver-to-announce-assistance-for-property-owners-hit-with-empty-homes-tax/

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bullwhip29

Media Manipulation 101: How Real Estate Developers Are “Crafting The Narrative”
https://betterdwelling.com/media-manipulation-101-how-real-estate-developers-are-crafting-the-narrative/

>>> sign up now, space is limited…

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Oracle

The naive are being fed stories. Nothing going to change what they really want.

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bullwhip29

‘Why pay more for the same thing?’: Vancouver tax pushes Chinese buyers to $1 million Seattle homes
http://business.financialpost.com/news/why-pay-more-for-the-same-thing-vancouver-tax-pushes-chinese-buyers-to-1m-seattle-homes

>>> i think in due time many of these buyers will regret moving to the US

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bullwhip29

CIBC, supposedly the most vulnerable of the big 5, trading at an all time high

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MarKoz

This is an absolutely mind-blowing article. Behind the pay wall so I have reproduced it whole. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/realtors-reluctant-to-share-data-on-foreign-buyers-cmhc-meetings-reveal/article33202319/ Realtors loath to share foreign buyer data, CMHC talks show Ottawa’s attempts to track foreign investment in the housing market are likely to be hampered by realtors’ reluctance to share information on overseas clients, industry players told closed-door meetings with the country’s housing regulator. “The [real estate] industry needs assurances why data on foreign investment will be collected and how it will be used,” Toronto-area realtors and developers told Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., according to summaries of meetings CMHC held with key industry players obtained by The Globe and Mail through an Access to Information request. “Foreign buyers are sensitive to too many questions being asked.” As part of its search for data on the role of foreign investors in driving up… Read more »

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Oracle

You shouldn’t be surprised. Foreign $ and immigration.

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BubbleTea

Donald Trump has complained about Chinese economic and military policy after a phone conversation with Taiwan’s President drew the ire of Beijing.

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Oracle

Only a matter of time before globalism is defeated and replaced with “Fair trade”.

Italy has voted against globalism and rampant immigration that has made western cities unaffordable for its workers. All while claiming the racist cards. The people don’t give a fuck anymore what they’re labelled.

While all english speaking countries are going towards reducing immigration, Tru deau and Mc Callum are going the other way. No doubt their “foundations” are seeing an influx of anonymous deposits as are tax haven accounts held by relatives.(Pana ma papers)

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11759352

http://www.sbs.com.au/yourlanguage/punjabi/en/article/2016/11/16/breaking-australian-government-announces-changes-457-visa-conditions

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Just me

“Vancouver Housing Tax Pushes Chinese to $1 Million Seattle Homes”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/vancouver-housing-tax-pushes-chinese-to-1-million-seattle-homes

“Just a few days after Vancouver announced a tax on foreign property investors, Seattle real estate broker Lili Shang received a WeChat message from a wealthy Chinese businessman who wanted to sell a home in Canada and buy in her area.

After a week of showings, he purchased a $1 million property in Bellevue, across Lake Washington from Seattle. He soon returned to buy two more, including a $2.2 million house in Clyde Hill paid for with a single cashier’s check.”

So, is Chinese cash just a myth?

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Oracle

For the gullible to believe. easy votes for the establishment.

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Newcomer

The thing to remember with anecdotal evidence is that something can be true, and yet not be significant, and things can also be significant but not determinant. Knowing that Chinese cash exists, doesn’t tell us that Chinese cash is the determining factor in prices.

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patriotz

Chinese cash is “the” determining factor if every purchase is made with Chinese cash. Obviously that’s not true, and we know that even offshore buyers depend substantially on Canadian credit.

Every source of funding for every buyer matters in the market. You can’t narrow it down beyond that.

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Oracle

Wrong.

Wont even try to explain it to you “son” of GT

btw, Italy referendum failed! sorry…

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history

sawdust admonishing bathouse, does it get better than ×this×

??

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Best place on meth

“Knowing that Chinese cash exists, doesn’t tell us that Chinese cash is the determining factor in prices.”

I have an idea. Raise the foreign buyer tax to 50% and let’s see if every house on the west side suddenly goes on the market with “motivated seller” in every description.

A week after that let’s check on Seattle and see if they have a ridiculous spike in sales.

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bullwhip29

VanMag’s Ranking of the Year’s Most Powerful People
In a city dominated by real estate, who really runs Vancouver?

http://vanmag.com/best-of-the-city/power-50-2016-vanmags-ranking-years-powerful-people/

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Gross. All real estate connected people. Sad that they are are stars.

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YVR

David Ebby #4 and John Horgan #16. Not looking good for the NDP leader.

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patriotz

Horgan represents a Vancouver Island riding and appears to be the highest ranking person on the list who isn’t from and doesn’t live in Vancouver. It makes sense for the NDP to have a housing critic from Vancouver but there’s the rest of the province to win over, and Horgan is going to appear to have a lower profile in the city.

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Bag it and tag it

That list is pathetic considering claims we’re a world class city. 90% of that list are politicians, leaders of crown corps, and real estate industry…sad.

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Best place on meth

#1 and #2 are grade A assholes, #3 and #4 deserve statues for their heroism, the rest are mostly laughable.

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BubbleTea

BIV podcast (episode 40): Why housing is No. 1 priority for B.C. voters
Say goodbye to Krusty this spring

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Just me

Getting rid of that hyena ridens is not going to be easy. People will need to get off their bums and vote for the NDP.
There are still many who claim to be fed up with the housing situation but will shoot themselves in the foot and vote for the lying, corrupt Christy Clark liberals.

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history

Christy cant lose, she is the leader of the defacto Mortgage party of BC. Greens had a chance but globalist Agent Jill Stein…

….. welllll, you connect the dots.

ie. there will be No political party in Canada, federall or provincialy the covelesces around a platform of no debt = freedom..

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Just me

The money laundering party has not ended (yet)

http://www.chinalawblog.com/2016/12/getting-money-out-of-china-its-complicated.html

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Oracle

It can take be stopped. Why? 2 reasons

Reason 1: “import over-invoicing ” — impossible to regulate

Reason 2: I’ll tell another day

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Oracle

Can’t. Damn lag on mobile site when you type

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Oracle

Limiting immigration USB only way. If you can’t live here, you won’t launder here.

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Oracle

USB= is

Admin: fix this issue

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Shut It Down Already

It’s been almost a year – admin clearly does not care. Those pop-over ads are probably too lucrative.

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Combat roach

Eventually our clueless politicians will start to understand how locust’s focus drives housing markets in the past 10 years.

Toronto’s Middle Class Is About To Be Priced Out Of The Condo Market

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/13395896

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Just me

The worst it gets in Toronto, the better from my point of view. It will push the Feds to stop the obscene inflows of money from China.

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patriotz

Nope, if prices keep getting higher in Toronto the Feds will further restrict borrowing (and remember many if not most foreign and immigrant buyers are borrowing most of the money locally). They are not going to stop inflows of money from China or anywhere else because the economy needs it.

The voters of BC can make their choice next May about whether to bring the RE market under control. If BC voters don’t care, why expect the Feds to care?

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Just me

Because the Feds cannot afford to lose Toronto. If it becomes clear tgat chinese are moving large smounts of money into that market (as it is apparent to all but those who are blind) the Feds will have to step in.
Vancouver can be left to burn fir an indeginite time, but Toronto cannot. It is the sad way in which Canada works.

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patriotz

Oh they’ll step in all right by further restricting borrowing, which likely accounts for more money going into the market than offshore transfers just for foreign and immigrant buyers alone.

There is no practical way for a country with an open economy like Canada to restrict money coming into the country or restrict how money coming into the country can be spent.

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Oracle

Restrict immigration to 10,000/country.

too bad for all the foreign students.

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Best place on meth

China quota should be negative 10,000 per year.

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Newcomer

How would that have worked out for your parents, or grandparents?

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Abdul Lahazi

It has to be stopped at the source (China); not by the Canadian government. Canadian government can’t do anything about it from this end.

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Oracle

Hearing reports that the inventory drop was yugeee.

Paul?

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Garth

I’m sorry guys.

If you go to my blog and read today’s post, my company is forecasting a rise in interest rates of 0.75% over the next few years. No going back to normal. Read it.

Sorry for those that sold. But hey, rates went up by 1000 percent. So I was right. From like 0.1 to like 1%.

Oh well.

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Lurker

“next few years”

You mean they forecast .75% rise over the next 13 months. That’s pretty huge. Nothing specific further than that.

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Kim

Are sellers in the burbs getting more and more delusional? Take a look at this house in Brentwood.

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Summary.cfm?BCD=GV&imdp=11&RSPP=5&AIDL=279&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=200000&MXPRC=9000000&SCTP=RS&ARPK=&AreaTitle=&agentid=&ComID=&rowp=6&vse.x=10&vse.y=8

For almost the same amount, you can buy a house, similar age, slightly smaller lot, but centrally located in Westside Vancouver:

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2103656&rowc=10&rowp=6&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=35&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=200000&MXPRC=9000000&SCTP=RS

Seriously. Who would buy in Brentwood for that price when you can get a similar home, slightly smaller lot, in westside Vancouver.

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chilled

I’ll take, “Who would rather live in Burnaby than Vancouver?” for $500 Alec!!!

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Newcomer

So we’ve reached the point at which even bears think of a million dollars as a negligible difference.

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Newcomer

Yup, that is a little pricey for the ugly part of a lower-middle class suburb surrounded by aluminum sided bungalows. But it is pretty close to London Drugs.

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Oracle

The centre of the metropolis is moving eastward. Gradndview heights will one day Center the city.

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Whistler or Bust?

And what a city it will be!

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Best place on meth

Does Burnaby have a “downtown”?

I’d love to visit downtown Burnaby on a Sunday afternoon, but I can’t tell if it’s Brentwood or Metrotown.

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Garth

Westside is reserved for the non working class who spend most of winter overseas.

For those that stay here during winter, the center of the city is moving eastwards.

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bullwhip29

Disclosure forms document BC Liberal MLAs’ travel junkets to Taiwan and China
https://www.biv.com/article/2016/12/disclosure-forms-document-bc-liberal-mlas-travel-j/

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bullwhip29

City of Vancouver looks to reduce building permit waits as citizens suffer
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/city-of-vancouver-looks-to-reduce-building-permit-waits-as-citizens-suffer

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Abdul Lahazi

Only in Vancouver would the word “suffer” be associated with building permits.

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bullwhip29

Trudeau discussed Chinese investments at fundraiser, host says
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-discussed-chinese-investments-at-fundraiser-host-says/article33200126/

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bullwhip29

Vancouver rental incentive program hurting tenants, benefiting developers, experts say
http://globalnews.ca/news/3103720/vancouver-rental-incentive-program-hurting-tenants-benefiting-developers-experts-say/

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bullwhip29

Richmond firm New Coast Realty fined by Real Estate Council for unlicensed services
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/richmond-firm-new-coast-realty-fined-by-real-estate-council-for-unlicensed-services

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Best place on meth

That’s not even a slap on the wrist, they should have been shut down and the ringleader jailed and banned from doing business in the industry after his 20 year sentence.

The BC Real Estate Council is as corrupt as the crooks at New Coast.

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Oracle

The whole world has become corrupt. Join them or you’ll become roadkill.

Sad truth these days.

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Abdul Lahazi

New Coast Realty sprang up out of nowhere about three years ago just when the Chinese speculators really came into the lower Mainland and NCR was set up to take advantage of the Asian influx. NCR has been in trouble many times for their dishonest sales practices and even for screwing over their own agents. NCR should absolutely be shut down immediately and the owners should be in jail.

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franko

The owner has been in Canada for 11 years, but has been unable to pass the realtors exams because he cannot speak English.

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WTF

$2.7 BILLION in sales – under fraudulent conditions & fined $7500.00? Disgusting.

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Combat roach

Anything beyond that would be considered racially motivated and politically incorrect.

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Just me

Was just browsing Zolo. Truly depressing experience. I thought there would be sizable price reductions. We are still at peak insanity. Houses in Renfrew or South Van are still asking well over 1.7 millions. Is that the going rate? How do people pay for that? Who is buying?

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Boombust

Very few are buying, according to the recent stats. Give it time, vendors are still stuck on “old prices”.

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Oracle

Lol.

Wait till spring.

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Boombust

Lol.

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YVR

“Houses in Renfrew or South Van are still asking well over 1.7 millions. Is that the going rate? How do people pay for that? Who is buying?”

Since those house are still listed and not sold clearly they are not priced at the going rate and people are not buying them. For the going rate look at the the houses that have sold (which is very few).

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squeak

Stand off. Sellers are gambling on winning the lottery. Buyers: time is on their side.
Personally I rather have 1.7 million in my pocket than a house that is costing in taxes, maintenance, time, effort in an iffy market. And once it accelerates down, I guess “go fund me” will pick up in activity – it would rhyme with the theme to get something for nothing.

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StrataHacker

It took about two years from the peak for prices to roll over hard in the US from 2005 to 2007.

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Oracle

Like I’ve been saying. Barely any price correction in the sub $1.3 million range.

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history

Depressed from RE prices listed online? This will warm your c#ckles:
I know of a prime location condo on Van isle, listed for over $1Mil. But t call up the realtor, and the price is 17% less. Try it…but t you have to sound sincere, not like some ashat who shows up at the car dealership to joy ride.

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