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Friday Free-for-all! December 9th, 2016

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It’s another work week wrapping up and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent link to kick off the chat:

–Negative game changers in real estate
–Vancouver a victim of its own success
–Better off in Cape Breton?
–Fed set to raise rates again
–Average house price down 15% or more
–West van detached falling $6300 per day
–BCREA: Expect $1730 /week losses in 2017
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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Hyper-mega-Bull
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CREAM

More than half of B.C.’s most expensive homes owned by secret shell companies spurring money laundering fears

http://www.canada.com/business/real-estate/hidden+ownership+homes+prevalent+report+says+raising/12502054/story.html

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YVR
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How many of these 50 high end houses were bought or sold after the foreign buyers tax? My guess is none. What does that tell you about future prices of these high end properties? The market can only go no bid for so long and prices collapse.

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2 years 4 months ago
StrataHacker
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As I said regarding the blow off top in the spring, china = dumb money. Their “investments” will go down the toilet all over the world. Just like Nexen.

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Newcomer
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I’ve got to agree. I don’t like to paint a whole country with one brush, but in this case the whole country has literally no investment experience.

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bullwhip29
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the real dumbos are the naive fools who hopped onto the coattails of a bunch crooks throwing around monopoly money. in a way i get why they buy lambo’s and other fancy toys without hesitation as paper money stuffed in a mattress essentially serves no purpose.

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50 cents
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Another bitter loser Bullwhip yourself

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StrataHacker
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Hyper Mega Bull = Nazi collaborater on the eve of D Day.

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Hyper-mega-Bull
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In your analogy who represents the invading allied forces?

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50 cents
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Cream – which is coming out of your butt as your comments are a reflection of the words of a bitter losa …

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space889
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Realtor’s monopoly are powers granted by the province. In fact, one of the big scandals reported this year was the use of unlicensed deal finders who go around on behalf of buyers / agents to find people to sell their house quick and ideally for under market value (which we know by definition is impossible, right Patriotz?). The province then passed a law that anyone who acts on behalf of a buyer / anyone to search for home to purchase must be a licensed realtor. So if you want to blame the monopoly of realtors, blame it on the province who deemed it in public interest that only licensed realtor can help others in RE transactions. You can off course do everything on your own.

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patriotz
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“Realtor’s monopoly are powers granted by the province. ”

You don’t understand the difference between a REALTOR® (note official spelling) and a real estate agent. A real estate agent is someone who holds a license from the BC government to act as a buying or selling agent for the public. A REALTOR® is someone who belongs to the monopolistic business association known as the REBGV or its counterparts elsewhere.

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space889
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Let’s see how successful you can be if you are a RE agent but not a REALTOR.

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space889
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@Bear Van – Yes, Chinese gov’t have huge sway and often dictatorial power over huge swath of economy. That I believe gives an advantage over the Canadian gov’t when it comes to implement certain controls / needs in time of crisis. However, believing that is an advantage is not the same as saying I agree with it or it is better. As well, there are still many companies that are basically state owned / crown corps in China, especially in what are considered vital industries. It is mostly those companies / industries that are affected. In many other sectors of the economy, there are far few regulations / rules than here, and gov’t tend to keep interference to a minimal. Thus, there is a saying that China is a more capitalistic economy than US. In some ways that is true.… Read more »
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Buynow or Getlaidnever
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Remember when the RCMP and CSIS accused the Chinese government of purchasing real estate in Canadian urban centers as a method of threatening Canada? No? That’s because the recommendations from a former classified program called Sidewinder was abandoned. All documents were ordered destroyed, and buried in 1997 by the Liberal government. Turns out we were as anxious to build ties with China then as we are now. Despite our national spy services advising the government that, well…this would happen to real estate.

https://betterdwelling.com/csis-warns-of-chinese-influence-on-canadian-real-estate-20-years-ago/

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Yunak
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Brutal, very painful to read. It is the same as ISIS but different implementation. Canadians must wake up!

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space889
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Oh no…big scary China is coming and they are going to destroy your way of life!!! They will implement revoluntionary communist policies and everyone must know Mao’s little red book by heart!

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BubbleTea
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Trusts and shell companies can be used in BC, the report states, to avoid property transfer taxes.

Enough is Enough JT, Krusty and Moonbean!!!!

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YVR
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You would have to pay capital gains and corperate income tax on any gain which would work out to more in taxes. Unless prices are falling. But then nobody buys with that expectation. That is why these proprties are not selling.

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patriotz
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“Moonbean”

BC cities have no power over property transfer taxes or income taxes. Also they aren’t involved when properties or their shell companies are sold in the first place, that function is handled by provincial agencies.

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Brian Ripley
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My Monthly Absorption rate chart suggests that crazy is still evident in Canada
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html
Really nuts in Toronto, not so much in Vancouver

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oh la la
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Some interesting charts you have there Brian. Thanks.

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Oracle
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US 10 yr bond yields at 2.47%. Up from 1.8% prior to the Clinton era.

Hopefully it can break the 3% mark and resultant mortgage rates toast real estate outside HAM areas.

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Whistler or Bust?
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Hey Oracle perhaps you didn’t see this from the article about prices being down 15% –

In analyzing sales data available to realtors, he says South and North Surrey appear to be the “hardest hit” by the price reductions, but that Langley is starting to be affected as well with the average sell price down 19 per cent in November compared to June.

I thought you said, Surrey SFH was unmoved?

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No Money Down
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Uh-oh. Vancouver Detached median house price breaks down below $1.85 M support.
Failed retest is a bearish signal. ;P

https://i.imgsafe.org/b3baa23b63.png

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bullwhip29
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still early in the game. homes are still selling above 2014/15 levels. initial reality check when ave det prices break $1.4M for good and blood starts flowing in a big way if we go under $1.2M where a high % of buyers would be underwater. naturally the troubles would only be magnified when it comes to TH’s and condos

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Shut It Down Already
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People buying $1.5m houses aren’t FTBs. They have larger down payments (from a previous sale) and won’t be underwater with a 10-15% drop.

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Bag it and tag it
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Yes and I’m sure they’ll be thrilled to find out their net worth chopped in half in six months.

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Shut It Down Already
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Most people don’t have any idea what their net worth is.

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Newcomer
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To be fair, it’s very hard to have a good accounting of net worth when you have most of it in a single highly volatile asset.

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bullwhip29
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true. they either think they are millionaires because they have the keys to an expensive property or they dont bother to check because they already deep down they are essentially broke

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
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why wouldn’t they? Is it such a hard thing to figure out?

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space889
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Wow, 50% drop in 6 months, must be your daily wet dream?

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bullwhip29
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true enough but as they moved up they also took on more debt to the tune of $750k or more. a typical owner in the $1-1.5M range could easily see 30,40,50%+ of their equity wiped out if prices fall by several hundred thousand.

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Shut It Down Already
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30% loss of equity is neither underwater nor “blood”. It’s severe tutting at worst.

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bullwhip29
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if an owner tapped that equity and bought additional RE with little money down in the last few yrs then the equation changes. no question that just a 200-400k drop in prices alone would be a heavy body blow to many. if ave prices drop from the $1.8M to under $1.4M and remain there for prolonged period (or even lower to $1.2M) then financial plans for 1000’s are likely changed forever

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space889
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really? Cuz $750K mortgage would great at least $150K income as well. So unless their income is also growing a lot, they can’t take on more debt automatically just cuz they are moving up.

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Oracle
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No offence but you can’t compare housing to stock technical analysis.

There are no algorithms and computers in housing that say sell after a certain price is reached., not is it liquid.

Good work but misses the point.

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Confucius
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You do realize that technical analysis started before computers were even invented.

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Shut It Down Already
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… and it’s total garbage, to boot. The only reason it appears to work is because there are enough participants playing the same patterns.

Look at any chart and see how many failed “head and shoulders” patterns that didn’t quite emerge. They’re there on just about every scale – days, weeks, months, years. It’s nonsense on stilts.

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history
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http://www1.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

HK RE, updated as of Dec 9. A few good charts, but no TA

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bullwhip29
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MP’s law firm sued in case involving allegations of Chinese underground banks and missing millions
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/mps-law-firm-sued-in-case-involving-allegations-of-chinese-underground-banks-and-missing-millions

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bullwhip29
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Secret ownership rampant in Vancouver real estate
http://www.news1130.com/2016/12/09/secret-ownership-rampant-vancouver-real-estate/

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Oracle
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Mostly Drug dealers and Chinese nationals.

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Madashell
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You mean Communist Chinese Party officials and corruption fugitives.

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Bag it and tag it
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Thanks Doug!
http://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/why-is-cmhc-boss-trumpeting-dubious-foreign-buyer-stats

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Oracle
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This is a fluff piece to minions so they can blame the federal gov for inaction by the Provincial liberals all these years.

They hope the minions reading this willtake the bait and elect Christy again.

Mission accomplished.

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ostritch
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12-20 weeks until we get a real taste of the market eh boys? that’s a damned long time.

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Boombust
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Sure. Why not? It’ll be interesting.

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West Coast Woman
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Obviously there are still some people out there with more money than brains. This crappy shack just had a sold sticker slapped on the sign:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17436071/2275-MCMULLEN-AVENUE-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6L2E2

Can’t understand why anyone would pay anywhere near that much for a house built in a swamp out of composites, plastics and laminates, and with foam window frames and pillars!

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Boombust
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Ooooooh! The RE pumpers will be happy; it’ll drag up the “average”.

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Bear Vancouverite
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Uhh… while I agree it’s far overpriced, for us mere mortals and middle class wage earners, could you refrain from calling a 6000sq ft brand new build mansion covered in solid limestone a “crappy shack”?

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West Coast Woman
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It may be a new build, but it’s hardly a “mansion”. It’s not 6000 square feet, but instead 4300 square feet – 1600 sq ft of which is underground surrounded by a swamp. The water problem was so bad that the builder was pumping water out of the basement for 1 1/2 years. That leaves 2700 sq ft above ground. It’s not covered in “solid limestone”. The window frames, pillars and most of the tiles are made of molded foam covered in a thin layer of cement. The floors are engineered hardwood. It may be fancy looking, but most of it is fake, and will require a substantial amount of costly maintenance. And I call it a crappy shack because it is not a home built for the average family in what was formerly an affordable family area, but rather… Read more »
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paulb
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New
61
Price Change
22
Sold
107

TI:8382

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah
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Toronto Airbnb. Bye bye.

http://business.financialpost.com/legal-post/ontario-court-ruling-says-condo-buildings-can-ban-sharing-services-such-as-airbnb

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Bear Vancouverite
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The Dark Side of the Housing Boom. This is a very long article, I hope you read the entirety to avoid missing some of the key information. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/genymoney/mortgage-overload-canadian-housing-finance/article33279552/ “households on average have a respectable 39.5 per cent of their take home pay left after accounting for major expenses. Buried in this average number are both homeowners in great shape and the house poor. Almost 7 per cent of homeowners with a mortgage were in extreme stress and 10 per cent were on the threshold.” The above is from a tool that the globe posted and which collected data from 1318 homeowners. Based on the above it doesn’t sound to me like the majority of owners are struggling, however, the common wisdom (as repeated by the article) is that having debt equal to 3.5 times your gross income is being “heavily… Read more »
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Good article.

Still, we are doing pretty good if we write about the poverty-stricken 30-year-old who is reduced to driving a ten-year-old car and giving less lavish gifts, and the family of four with one breadwinner who can only go to restaurants infrequently. It’s probably the lack of actual hardship that makes people confident enough to commit half their income to debt repayment.

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Boombust
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As “they” say, it is the people at the margins who set things in motion.

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YVR
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Most people will do fine until they must sell. Job transfer, divorce, job loss, etc. Plus all the people that bought 500 sq ft condos who want to move up when they get married and or to have kids will be stuck. As prices go lower more and more move into negative equity.

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“Vancouver Real Estate Declines On Almost Every Measure In November”, Better Dwelling

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-real-estate-declines-almost-every-measure/

“Vancouver real estate definitely isn’t ending 2016 the way it started. The latest report from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) didn’t even try to sugar coat it. The newest stats from REBGV show lower prices, lower sales, and a significantly lower absorption rate from last year.”

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southseacompany
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“WSJ Survey: Economists See Fed Moving Faster on Rate Increases”, Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wsj-survey-economists-see-fed-moving-faster-on-rate-increases-1481209201

“Four quarter-percentage-point rate increases are expected between now and the end of 2017”

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So a five fold increase over the current rate.

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Did we have this already?

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/02/vancouver-house-price-bubble-collapses-sales-crash-for-sale-signs/
Comments are interesting.

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history
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yep, try and keep up.

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MarKoz
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All those “Niko” signs make me think most of those properties are part of a land assembly, not just some of them. I want to believe but…

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No Money Down
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It is a land assembly

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Yes, it says in the article that it’s a land assembly.

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cosmo
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EXCLUSIVE: Proof that Communist China is infiltrating Vancouver

http://www.therebel.media/exclusive_proof_that_communist_china_is_infiltrating_vancouver

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patriotz
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Goldman executive Gary Cohn tapped for White House economic post… the third Goldman alumni picked for a spot in Trump administration
Meet the new Republican, same as the old Republican.

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you’re deluded if you think your seeing “republicans”

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franko
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Damned reassuring that at least one administration is heeding the old “IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID” lesson. Unfortunately, can’t say the same of our team of Keystone Cops like BAMBY and BUTTS.

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Looks more like a democrat to me.

Cohn is a registered Democrat who has donated money to both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Both of these former Goldman alumni worked under President Clinton as well. Friedman also worked under Bush.

If he takes the post, he will be following in the footsteps of Robert Rubin and Stephen Friedman, two other onetime Goldman Sachs executives who served in that role.

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Shut It Down Already
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Right, but Clinton never stood on the “drain the swamp” platform. Trump is a total hypocrite who outright misled the electorate.

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YVR
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Drain the swamp referred to Washington insiders. Cohn has never worked in Washington. Trump has also put a ban on people who work in his administration from becoming a lobbyist within 5 years of leaving the position.

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And his attacks on Hillary for giving a speech at Goldman and also Cruz? Those were a reference to something else too?

Come off it.

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patriotz
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“Looks more like a democrat to me.”

I was talking about Trump himself. Same old putting Wall Street first.

“Drain the swamp referred to Washington insiders.”

You mean like GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell’s wife, who he’s appointing to the cabinet?

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I don’t understand. Does someone’s employer tell us something about their character? Is that the implication here? Seems like lazy reasoning.

I understand that some don’t like bankers, but GS is the top financial firm and if you are in finance it is probably where u want to be. They are among some of the best. Sad to see people trading in anti elitism on this blog.

Is it full of shit heads and psychopaths? Of course, but what big corporation isn’t?

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Grease problems add to utility costs, require $3.5 million fix
http://www.richmond-news.com/news/grease-problems-add-to-utility-costs-require-3-5-million-fix-1.4090670

>>> only here would something so absurd happen…

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Combat roach
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What else could happen when primitives massively and quickly inhabit civilization because they can, but where they don’t know how to function and behave ?

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add to this all the paint, chemicals and other banned substances that are also being dumped down the drains

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Like in Saskatoon?

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/saskatoon/saskatoon-tells-citizens-not-to-pour-grease-down-drain-1.3501012

Must be all the Chinese these right? Why not just piss off, you racist imbecile?

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Richmond News Letters: Letter: Homeowners, hold onto your wallets
http://www.richmond-news.com/opinion/letters/letter-homeowners-hold-onto-your-wallets-1.4159041

>>> couldnt agree more. so obvious that the rollout of the tax was carefully timed and planned not to mention the fact that key insiders were given a heads up weeks, if not months in advance which further explains the cooling of the market here in advance of the announcement while other markets continued to motor on full steam ahead

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This makes no sense at all. First, if they rolled out the tax a month or 2 earlier, assessment values would not have changed much, if at all. Second, home values have no impact on how much is collected overall from property tax, so it makes not difference to the government what your assessment value is.

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disagree. had the tax been rolled out in a more timely fashion ie. in spring and what we witnessed from aug to present had actually occurred pre july 1 then govt would have had 2 problems on their hands (1) big property tax increase would have been a tougher sell and (2) public confidence would have taken a hit as assessments plummeted vs the presumable reassurance we will see as owners see how much they are worth at least on paper. remember it is election time and information will be carefully massaged and disseminated only if it benefits the liberals

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I am puzzled at how many people do not understand how property taxes work. An increase in assessments across a city is irrelevant to the actual taxes paid. It is only if you own a property that has increased more than the average place in your city do you get a tax increase (over the city budget increase of ~3%). You would think people could figure it out simply by realizing their property tax did not triple with their home values over the past 15 years.

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it is safe to say that more people will see their taxes increase if assessments are up by 30-50%

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LS in Arbutus
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The biggest issue is that people start to lose the homeowner’s grant past $1.2 million and totally when values are in excess of $1.369 million. So essentially every SFH in Vancouver. Taxes aren’t cheap.

http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/are-you-eligible.aspx

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patriotz
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The other issue is that SFH have gone up more than attached dwellings so their share of the tax bill will go up. This is something the North Van mayor was complaining about some months ago – he wanted the BC government to allow cities to charge a lower rate for SFH. At present all residential must be charged the same rate.

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For the love of Pete. People are complaining because their house is worth over a million dollars and other people’s apartments aren’t.

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Oracle
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So then condo taxes should go down. Why that not mentioned. There is a flip side.

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when have taxes ever gone down?

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patriotz
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Quite often actually. You just haven’t noticed because it’s almost always the well off and corporations who’ve been getting the cuts. There’s also non-enforcement of taxation for the wealthy in addition to formal tax cuts.

JT’s recent middle income cut was an exception. I will also point out that Harper cut the GST (which was a bad policy).

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Actually, you are wrong on your last point. GST type (consumption) taxes are disproportionately burdensome to middle and lower class people, simply for the fact that they spend a vastly larger proportion of their income on consumption (of necessities) than rich people. If you weren’t so ideologically blinded, you would justifiably credit Harper with the most progressive tax cut in all of human civilization.

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patriotz
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“The biggest issue is that people start to lose the homeowner’s grant past $1.2 million”

This is a saving for the provincial government. Cities get the same tax money regardless of HOG status.

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no, krusty will take care of this is in the new year by raising the threshold to $1.4M. this is basically a get of out jail free card for her

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What makes you say that? It’s kind of weird that you would say that, seeing as you spend most of your life on a real estate blog. Do you seriously not understand what YVR is saying?

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Oracle
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Wonder what agenda the media has to publish that? That’s not how property taxes work.

Maybe media wants to be seen like they understand the plight of the people and maybe then they vote Cristy. Lol

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Mortgage overload: Are Canadians living too close to their financial edge?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/genymoney/mortgage-overload-are-canadians-living-too-close-to-their-financial-edge/article33291062

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Great article. Informative, sobering, a refreshing slap in the face.

Knowledge is power: Somebody’s stupidity is somebody else’s gain. It is too bad Canada did not look into this housing mania long time ago, but then again, what to expect from corruption or it is baffling incompetence? It has to one of the two or both.

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squeak
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I want to add, to be cautious in statement, that the home owner/buyer has to take ownership of their buying decision: Probably was expecting to “win the lottery” as in RE value going up, if convinced it was going down they would not buy. A gamble.
I have never been able to return a lottery ticket for a refund when it did not win.

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patriotz
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” It is too bad Canada did not look into this housing mania long time ago”

Both the Federal and Provincial governments knew and know exactly what they are doing. Governments like RE bubbles because they make homeowners feel richer and create jobs in the absence of real production.

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Globe and Mail = as#whipe
…
stopped reading at ‘we profiled six people’

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Oracle
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All carefully planned propaganda. Give a little and then take back a little more.

Don’t be fooled by likes of that Tomlinson “reporter”

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Royce McCutcheon
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If you’re not going to put up evidence, you really should provide some details on the vague rumors you’re peddling with respect to her reporting. Your thesis that her stories are a plant encouraged by the BC Liberals might be the oddest thing you’ve come up with.

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“With uninsured mortgages driving an increasing portion of overall mortgage and loan growth…the consequences of a decline in housing prices—most notably in the Toronto and Vancouver markets—weighs more heavily with each passing quarter.”

http://canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2016/12/q4-2016-bank-earnings-mortgage-morsels.html

dont worry bulls, since when does a banker give a bathouse care about scales? Just offload your cleaning problems to TFW’s

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Development opportunity in highly sought after neighbourhood of Mount Pleasant. RM4-N zoning allows 4 dwelling unit allowing approximate 5000 sqft building in total. Plans & Conditional Permit (prior to letter) in place. Seller to do their own diligence but vendor will share plans and prior too. Quick closing preferred. All measurements are approximate.LISTING AGENT HAS A INTEREST IN PROPERTY.

http://archive.is/6QxbA#selection-2541.0-2550.2

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2116966/373-e-16th-avenue-vancouver?property_search=436402802

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John
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BC Assessment says 1.115M. Lets say +30% for peak of the year – 1.5M – that is still a lot less than the 2.450M listing price. The property sold in March 2015 for 1.26M. Those plans and a conditional permit must be made of solid gold – apparently they are worth about 1M dollars.

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Hyper-mega-Bull
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rezoning and the anticipation of rezoning is a huge reason why detached houses are the price they are.

i can’t say if the numbers work for this project, but it may.

also, chinese builders can make profits where others can’t by importing everything from china. they can put up a house for half the price of east indian builders. that changes the equation.

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