BC, economy, hype, politics, prices, USA

Moving to Seattle

‘JustMe‘ posted this article from Bloomberg about wealthy buyers moving from Vancouver to Seattle after the foreign buyer tax was implemented.

“Just a few days after Vancouver announced a tax on foreign property investors, Seattle real estate broker Lili Shang received a WeChat message from a wealthy Chinese businessman who wanted to sell a home in Canada and buy in her area.
After a week of showings, he purchased a $1 million property in Bellevue, across Lake Washington from Seattle. He soon returned to buy two more, including a $2.2 million house in Clyde Hill paid for with a single cashier’s check.”

Read the full article here (warning autoplay video).

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[…] Sellnoworbepricedin4evah shared this article at CTV news about Vancouver house prices ‘plunging‘. […]

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bullwhip29

A division of one of China’s biggest state-owned corporations, which has links to the military, opened a downtown Vancouver art gallery gallery November 30, and its CEO said corporate siblings may follow.

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/12/hard-currency-soft-power-poly-culture-rolls-bc/

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Oracle

Its China’s city now.

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Combat roach

Who at the end will be responsible for all this shit that came and took place in Canada and the inevitable devastating consequences? Our establishment just decided to fuck the country up and hand it over to Chinese overlords. “Carleton University political science professor Jeremy Paltiel, who specializes in China issues, said there are several reasons for Poly to choose Vancouver. “There is no doubt that as a major cultural operator in China, the government and the Communist Party are pushing for increasing China’s soft power, then clearly this is an opportunity for them,” Paltiel said. “There is a push factor, but I think we might also want to look at the pull factors. They already have a customer base here.” Given the company’s history – Poly Technologies is an international arms dealer – Canada would be a less-sensitive place… Read more »

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ostritch

I love the way Trump jostles everyone months before he’s going to negotiate with them. Now it’s China’s turn. He sticks his finger in their eye and gets them all riled up. Eventually, he’ll sit down to the negotiating table and then walk away with his nose in the air. Maybe he’ll go to Taiwan or HK after that just to double down on irritating them. Whatever it is, it’s sure to get them off-kilter before they sit down to negotiate. Just like he likes it. And everyone plays into his hands. The Chinese and Mexicans need to google “Germanic & Scandinavian negotiators” ASAP.

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The Man

Reminds me of the story of Robert Moses, the great builder of New York, from the biography “The Power Broker”.

One day at an opening to a new bridge or something, Moses spotted some new bureaucrat or official he’d need to deal with. He leaned over to his colleague and said, “Watch this.” Moses walked up to the man, pick him up, shook him violently, put him down and walked back.

Moses’ colleague asked him why he did that. “To put him in his place”, Moses quipped back.

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bullwhip29

For anyone wondering if this gong show couldn’t fall off the rails anymore than it already has, we get this nonsense. The BC Govt’s announcement of the 15% tax conveniently occurred just a couple of weeks after the July 1 assessment date. More engineered and orchestrated policy from this sham of a govt who will undoubtedly continue to roll out nothing but “good” news (whether it is of their doing or not) until election date. Rumors going around that Evergreen line could have opened months ago but was deliberately pushed back for political reasons.

Property assessments climb up to 50% in Greater Vancouver
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/property-assessment-preview-1.3883751

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bullwhip29

Property assessments climb up to 50% in Greater Vancouver
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/property-assessment-preview-1.3883751

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Newcomer

Guaranteeing that everything will be selling under assessed in 2017.

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bullwhip29

also guaranteeing that bar was deliberately raised as high as possible prior to rollout of tax and other measures. then in subsequent yrs taxes will be frozen (even if mkt drops) a la ICBC, BC Hydro etc. in the coming wks Krusty and co will be back to save day promising no new property tax increases starting in 2017 all according to playbook

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Newcomer

Probably. IMHO, the big question will be how voters react to plummeting RE in the spring. It could go two ways. They could be spooked and vote for the party that has always been good for RE, or they could panic and vote for the NDP because they think the collapse is an indication or incompetent governance. Obviously, the second choice would be MUCH worse for RE prices, but voters are not always rational.

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bullwhip29

my prediction…there will be light panic selling by locals in jan/feb/mar and all that volume will be scooped up by HAM & connected insiders who will be given heads up that tax will be rolled back. as election nears krusty will let cat out of bag citing BS like how effective policy has been to date. given most are long RE it is a no brainer who they’ll vote for

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Newcomer

Yeah, but then she loses the racist vote. It’s a toughie.

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Bear Vancouverite

If this is true and you believe it to be true, then yours and all of our best course of action is to really just buy something in Jan/Feb/Mar

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Newcomer

The 15% has almost nothing to do with the current state of the market. Repealing it will do nothing. And even the tiny sliver of the market that might have been influenced by it won’t come back if it’s repealed, because they will now see Vancouver as a regulatorily unstable market.

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ostritch

This government is always a day late and a remnimbi short.

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patriotz

Don’t hike ‘punishing’ land transfer tax, realtor advocate says to (Toronto) city council

Tim Hudak, head of Ontario Real Estate Association, says an increase would be ‘greedy’

Takes greedy to know greedy I guess. Until recently Hudak was the leader of the PC Party of Ontario. Toronto has its own transfer tax in addition to Ontario’s.

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YVR

What they should do is triple the tax for properties held 1 to 5 years prorated and cut it in half for properties over 5 years. That should cut down on transactions and make realtors happy.

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Oracle

Or for residential housing, tax 100% of capital gains. Then any gains are treated all as Income.

And ban anyone with investment properties from collecting child benefits, EI, claiming poor for MSP.

Jail time for anyone that doesn’t pay this tax.

Then investment advantage from accounting side out of the equation.

But they won’t do anything. Because the same guys are behind the scenes.

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southseacompany

“BCREA: Vancouver Real Estate Expected To Lose $1,730 A Week In 2017”, Better Dwelling

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/bcrea-vancouver-real-estate-expected-lose-1730-week-2017/

“The worst area in the projections was the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), where prices are expected to decline. Economists from the BCREA project the average benchmark price will drop 8.7% by the end of next year. This would bring the average home in the GVA down to $940,000. “

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YVR

$1730 a week or $7500 per month loss to hold an average property. In YVR. That is RE cartel forecast. You can easily quadruple that. Plus you get the privilage of paying interest, property tax, vacant home tax and maintenace fees. I guess this is the oposite if forced savings and building equity. The rush to the exits in Spring will be fun to watch.

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tedeastside

Seattle? Vancouver has AA baseball, CFL , and Yaletown Brewing =Boeing for job opportunity.

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Boombust

Seattle is ugly.

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bullwhip29

perhaps, but there are way more crooks and a-holes in Vanc

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Newcomer

Pope,

Thanks for the new configuration. Very nice!

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/prices-plunging-houses-selling-well-below-asking-some-under-1m-1.3190864

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Oracle

China fires a shot across the bow of trumps ship.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/05/rumors-of-sharp-drop-in-chinas-yuan-swirl-on-social-media.html

Message is ‘we are holding the Yuan at a high level’ and ‘we can make it go lower!’

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Oracle

Watch outflows to accelerate.

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Oracle

World colonization by the Chinese without firing a singe shot.

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Just me

Some times it takes insane people (like Oracle) to say something essentially through.

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Newcomer

Through enough.

Oh, wait a minute, …

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Best place on meth

Whoracle’s not insane, he has a house to sell.

It’s propaganda.

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Confucius

Shameless sawdust McMansion owner in Grandview Heights.

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space889

And what do you have? Nothing….so you are even worse than Oracle whom you despise.

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Oracle

You are so lost.

LMAO

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Boombust

CTV News at 6 did a story on recent Vancouver price drops; the house on E. 8th (SP $1,268K ) and the house on Slocan (SP $800K) were featured. So, maybe this is NOW becoming “mainstream” so Joe Sixpack will sit up and take notice?

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Oracle

No offence, but Mainstream is way ahead of you. Mainstream knew about HAM when you guys were siding with Garth and trying to shut down those that were trying to expose it..

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Boombust

You MUST be kidding.

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bullwhip29

imho this sale not typical. pretty sure this was an arranged sale (for tax reasosn) with an undeclared cash component included

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Newcomer

Could well be, but it’s a comp for the neighborhood and a story in the newspaper, nonetheless.

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bullwhip29

imho this is same as institutions trading securities via dark pools with average chumps getting royally fleeced as they come and go. with 15% tax expect lots of fishy lowball trades facilitated by the New Coasts of the world esp now that they are off the hook for executing a whack of transactions way over asking just months ago. scam now is to get naive fools to give up their homes WAY below mkt value.

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Newcomer

If that’s the price that more than one or two people take, that’s market value.

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bullwhip29

you assume the buyer and seller are always at arms length? in this chop shop of a town where the use of every loophole occurs unabated, that’s laughable.

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Newcomer

Not always, no. But you are jumping from “this sometimes happens” to “this is the dominant pattern” when in fact we know that the dominant pattern is, indeed, arm’s length transactions and, more importantly, that the vast majority of buyers assume that essentially all transactions are arm’s length, and thus constitute legitimate comps.

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southseacompany

“The interest rate party is over, and the only way is up”, Sydney Morning Herald.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-interest-rate-party-is-over-and-the-only-way-is-up-20161205-gt45yz.html

“Australian banks are drawing a line in the sand. Interest rates on mortgages are going up – by stealth. And there will be flow-on effect to the residential property market and temper the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne.”

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Oracle

Governments won’t raise rates too much unless its coordinated all around the world. Unlikely.

The sovereign debts can’t take it and all the billionaires holding bonds will not let it happen too much.

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Newcomer

Yeah, those billionaires with their cigars and monocles were great at stopping a trillion dollars in bond wealth from disappearing last month. They are pretty cool players.

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Oracle

Only a few percent of their net worth at max. Stocks went up.

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Newcomer

So, they are cool with bonds going down? Didn’t you just argue the exact opposite at the top of this thread?

I’ve got to admire your intellectual flexibility.

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Sellnoworbepricedin4evah

Bond mkt exponentially bigger than the stock mkt. and it puked all over itself with Trump elected and higher chances of rates going up.
It’s a crazy world. Doubt RE looks like a deal anywhere now.

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space889

I will hold off until I see Europe and Japan sovg yield curve moves completely out of NIRP first.

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ostritch

They better hurry up because the Sydney and Melbourne markets got a fever again. And the only cure is… more cowbell.

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southseacompany

“Why Poloz may use words to cool the ‘Trump effect’ on interest rates”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economic-insight/bank-of-canada-poised-to-hold-interest-rates-into-2017/article33201559/

“Despite signalling over the fall that it had inched toward an interest-rate cut, the Bank of Canada doesn’t look prepared to take that plunge in this week’s rate announcement.”

“The Bank of Canada will issue the last of the year’s eight scheduled rate decisions on Wednesday morning, and it now looks overwhelmingly likely that the bank will hold its key rate steady at 0.5 per cent, where it has sat for the past 16 months. The bond market is pricing in just a 3-per-cent chance of a rate cut – a pretty definitive declaration that it’s off the table.”

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paulb

New
137
Price Change
41
Sold
96
TI:8627

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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YVR

Wow 137 new listings and 41 price drops 2 weeks before the holidays. Some desperate people want out.

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MarKoz

Wow, 137 new listings and 96 sold. Don’t count your chickens…

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Boombust

Why not?

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Best place on meth

Nothing unusual about 137 listings in early December.

You know what is unusual?

West Van detached benchmark price falling 6% in a month.

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Just me

Chinese stopped buying, at least temporarily. There is no other explanation for that. It is certainly not lack of credit for those transactions.
Can we agree on that, at least?

I fully expect Christy Clark to reverse the tax altogether or partly a few months after re-election.

What we need is what David Eby proposed with the UBC economists. A carrying-cost tax that gets rebated if you pay taxes in Canada (according to the amount of taxes of course).
If you are rich enough to buy RE without working (and paying taxes) you are rich enough to pay the carrying cost.

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Oracle

IF NDP elected , they will back track on promises just like Trudeau. Same people running the province now.

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bullwhip29

if krusty has to filter through the ballots herself to rig the election results, she’ll do it without batting an eyelash

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space889

So basically you are arguing for more taxes then?? I’m sure those extra property taxes will be used for good things, instead of just wasted or giving to insiders. Also, I think the proposal is only 1% which isn’t that much if the foreigners buyers are as rich as the bears claim. Also, think of all the old people living in their $2M/$3M+ homes they worked so hard for!!! No new property tax or whatever carrying cost tax unless it can be offset by either direct income tax cut or at least income tax credit so it’s revenue neutral. Off course, an income tax credit will simply be another f-u to the face of the bears who just loves renting here. 🙂 Doubt NDP / BC LIb will go for anything tax neutral though if they do end up doing… Read more »

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ostritch

Has anyone ever commented that you have a childish way of arguing?

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Newcomer

It’s not more than average for this time of year. Look it up:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dYtxpv5aEMF-Ccyyb8sKmtHI4nQL8rqP4vEVxMx4VUc/edit#gid=0

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Billybonger

I would stop paying taxes on my stock capital gains if they do that.

Highly doubt cra would do that it would absolutely upend the tax system.

But then again who knows.

If this happens it is absolutely robbery

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bullwhip29

in all honesty, CRA can do whatever they please. if they give owners some runway to work with then there will be a rush to the exits. if transactions as of a certain date are grandfathered, it is simply to late to act on it now anyway

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BubbleTea

“Did China’s Currency Just Drop Off a Cliff?”
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/05/did-chinas-currency-just-drop-off-a-cliff/
Can’t be good news for Chinese would be buyer of world real estates!

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C.Junta

Empty home tax. It’s official. All info in a single place. So, it’s about renting your place for 180 days a year. Now let’s see how they will enforce it and how many people will be penalized.

“Will your home be taxed?
All owners of residential property in Vancouver will be required to make a property status declaration, which will determine if they are affected by the Empty Homes Tax.”

http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/will-your-home-be-taxed.aspx

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space889

What if you rented to someone who doesn’t live in it?

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Oracle

This is all political theatre to appease the naive ‘bears’ who then spend a few months discussing this while the plunder continues.

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Newcomer

I can totally see spending three hundred million dollars, or whatever it was, to keep the forty-six bears in Vancouver distracted. We’re just that important.

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Oracle

This may be a reason for low inventory.

Developers are lobbying CRA to not apply the capital gains tax retroactively to real estate purchased as investments.

People are holding off listing and cashing in on billions.

Some palms will be greased and these investment homeowners will be offered a loophole to make their gains tax free.

Wow.

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Newcomer

And I’m lobbying for free nachos on every street corner, but it’s not going to happen.

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Shut It Down Already

Inventory is low because many would-be move-up buyers can’t afford to move up.

Meanwhile, would-be sellers are holding on thinking they’ll get a higher price if they wait.

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Combat roach

Yet another own-goal scored by JT and his team of bozos…

OTTAWA – Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr’s assertion the police and military will deal with civil disobedience over pipeline projects was “stupid and clumsy,” a British Columbia grand chief says.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/jim-carr-s-comments-senseless-clumsy-b-c-leader-says-1.3187619?google_editors_picks=true

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space889

oh please, he’s simply doing what you enjoyed doing to the first nation people for the last few centuries. Stop pretending you suddenly care about their welfare while busy living off your plunder. You don’t care or give a shit.

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Best place on meth

You hear that CR?

Apparantly, you personally have been screwing over the native people for centuries.

Don’t you feel like shit, roundeye?

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Combat roach

I mostly gave up on his rubbish. The patient is either an acid junkie on some cheap steroids from fatherland or a bipolar psychopath who strolls through VCI when in crisis, looking to pick a fight. Classic moron…

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space889

Pretty good diagnosis for yourself…I guess the saying he who’s always sick becomes a good doctor is somewhat true for the bears here.

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UBC in Crisis Mode

It appears that CMHC officials are too corrupt to collect “foreign data”.

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patriotz

CMHC has no power to involuntarily collect information on RE sales, other than those it insures. That power belongs to the provincial governments, as should be obvious everyone on this forum.

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MarKoz

My favourite quote (with respect to Toronto Realtors):
“Many were curious as to what share of foreign buyers CMHC considered a problem,” CMHC wrote. “Many hoped that any data collected by CMHC will not be used to say that there is a problem.”

Tell us what percentage is a problem so we can tell you it is less than that. Palm, face, smack!

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Combat roach

Interesting comment at: http://globalnews.ca/news/3106889/city-of-vancouver-to-announce-assistance-for-property-owners-hit-with-empty-homes-tax/ City of Vancouver to provide ‘support and information’ for property owners hit with empty homes tax Sharon Zhu · Alpha Secondary School What about all the empty condos in burnaby…over a hundred new highrises being built do you really think there is this much demand if not for investors…if you earn your income in China or somewhere else only have canadian residency or citizenship for a quick exit from china you really arent a contributor to a canadian community….time for lower mainland to think as one vancouver richmond surrey burnaby coquitlam all lower mainland is affected by same transit housing healthcare issues…should amalgamate streamline all these silly mayors who are filling their pockets…if you really think their is difference between vancouver burnaby surrey or richmond etc etc your living in the past 30 years ago now… Read more »

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space889

wow, ability to post somewhat coherent thoughts without resorting to hate, racism, or rudeness…maybe you should learn something from this locust.

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Oracle

The only way to stop this corruption and PC is for immigrants to start a movement against foreign money.

The downside of that is the racists then gain traction.

Caught between a rock and hard place.

What really needs to happen is these bureaucrats and politicians need to be held accountable (min 10 years in jail) for the corruption. Its affecting locals immensely and CRA, CSIS and the RCMP have got to step it up.

Otherwise society falls apart. Its already happening.

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Shut It Down Already

Which part of that was coherent, exactly?

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space889

Well, my bar is pretty low nowadays…runon sentences with some semblance of logic and no profanities is already a B+ by this blog’s bear’s writing standards.

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Just me

MarKoz posted this in the previous thread. Worth re-posting. This is an absolutely mind-blowing article. Behind the pay wall so I have reproduced it whole. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/realtors-reluctant-to-share-data-on-foreign-buyers-cmhc-meetings-reveal/article33202319/ Realtors loath to share foreign buyer data, CMHC talks show Ottawa’s attempts to track foreign investment in the housing market are likely to be hampered by realtors’ reluctance to share information on overseas clients, industry players told closed-door meetings with the country’s housing regulator. “The [real estate] industry needs assurances why data on foreign investment will be collected and how it will be used,” Toronto-area realtors and developers told Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., according to summaries of meetings CMHC held with key industry players obtained by The Globe and Mail through an Access to Information request. “Foreign buyers are sensitive to too many questions being asked.” As part of its search for data… Read more »

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BubbleTea

Was shopping in Bellevue a couple of weeks ago, surprised to see so many mainland Chinese there. Vancouver is not the only destination for the wealthy Chinese in the Pacific NW.

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Boombust

Vancouver is in the Pacific Southwest.

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Oracle

They are tourists there.

They are immigrants here.

A difference.

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ostritch

Not true anymore. Many of them have WA plates.

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bullwhip29

no they are working (and making good coin) at microsoft, amazon etc

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Hyper-mega-Bull

china has a huge population. if they only loved vancouver a detached house would be a billion instead of a million.

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patriotz

“mainland Chinese” does not automatically mean “wealthy”. There are lots of mainland Chinese immigrants working in IT in Vancouver and I’m sure there are lots in metro Seattle. In fact I’ll bet many of those in Seattle originally immigrated to Vancouver.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/explore-this-where-do-king-countys-chinese-born-residents-live/

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Shut It Down Already

You can identify somebody’s country of origin by how they look?

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Best place on meth

No, you identify them by how they behave.

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space889

Rude, obnoxious, stupid, racist, full of anger, talking to themselves, all signs of a good old stock Canadian then?

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bullwhip29

not that I am defending you, but the chinese in seattle behave differently than the ones here.

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Combat roach

Of course, they don’t feel like “being at home”, yet.

Bubble? What Bubble?