Realtors expect decline in 2017

Praising a forecast market correction in Vancouver as a return to sanity:

Vancouver’s long-awaited housing correction may be around the corner: prices are headed for a double-digit decline in 2017 as buyers drop out of the market, according to the head of Canada’s largest real estate services company.

“Home prices had gotten so out of whack with the growth in underlying wages and salaries that there had to be a correction,” said Phil Soper, chief executive officer of Royal LePage, a unit of Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. “And it’ll happen in 2017.”

Royal LePage is preparing a formal forecast for release in early January based on data from Brookfield, which also runs the nation’s biggest property valuation company. Those appraisals are used by banks, insurance companies and mortgage underwriters.

Read the full article here.

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Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Goldman Warns China Outflows Rising

“Capital outflows and yuan depreciation will continue or even worsen by the end of this year and the first quarter of 2017, as investors are getting increasingly concerned about a stronger dollar and China’s economic conditions”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-19/goldman-warns-china-outflows-rising-in-both-yuan-payments-forex

specuskeptic
Member

From CBC’s Early Edition: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/1st-time-homebuyers-say-no-thanks-to-b-c-loan-1.3908606

Mainstreaming this thinking is what’s needed. Once stories like this become standard, the barn door will be closed and horses long gone.

Funkey Monkey
Guest
Funkey Monkey

Yes looks like being a bear is becoming main stream. Even my wife said recently maybe buying (in our desired city not the lower mainland) is not a good idea right now.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Good news…

Average price of a new detached house in Toronto now $1.24 million

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/12/22/average-price-of-a-new-detached-house-in-toronto-now-124-million.html

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Here’s how the economy could combust, according to the Bank of Canada”, Global News video

http://globalnews.ca/news/3143577/heres-how-the-economy-could-combust-according-to-the-bank-of-canada/

“The Bank of Canada recently explained in a video different ways the Canadian economy could fall apart. The two main culprits? High household debt and housing market imbalances.”

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Trump team floats a 10% tariff on imports

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-tariffs/index.html

‏@realDonaldTrump
We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back.- let them keep it!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Chinese are upset that he used the word “stole”.

Hilarious, stealing what they’re famous for.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Must be some traditional obsession combined with superstition or some mental collective shit otherwise how to explain this sort of insanity…

Chinese home price increases surpass Vancouver: report

http://www.news1130.com/2016/12/22/vancouver-home-prices-drop-global-scale/

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Inexperience.

space889
Member
space889

Always amazed at how well and adept you are at describing yourself and other bears.

dan
Guest
dan

slant eyed pwick

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Fuck off, racist.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Are you offended when chinese call you a round eyed prick?

50 cents
Guest
50 cents

In your case its round assed losa

50 cents
Guest
50 cents

White trash trolls every where

paulb
Member

New
26
Price Change
6
Sold
66
TI:7424

http://www.paulboenisch.com

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
Watch as Trump starts squeezing China. Beijing fires trade warning after Trump appoints China hawk The appointment of Peter Navarro, a campaign adviser, to a formal White House post shocked Chinese officials and scholars who had hoped that Mr Trump would tone down his anti-Beijing rhetoric after assuming office. Mr Navarro, a Harvard-trained economist and University of California Irvine professor, is the author of Death by China and other books that paint the country as America’s most dangerous adversary. “Chinese officials had hoped that, as a businessman, Trump would be open to negotiating deals,” said Zhu Ning, a finance professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “But they have been surprised by his decision to appoint such a hawk to a key post.” Adding to rising tensions between the two countries, the US Office of the Trade Representative yesterday put Alibaba,… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Do you find that hyper-mega bullish?

My take is that China taking a major hit (whether or not the US also takes a hit as a result) is massively bearish for Vancouver RE. The reason is that people in Vancouver believe that rich Chinese folks will buy their houses at any time that they care to sell. They see it as back-end coverage. They think that they can buy and house, and they can wait to sell any amount of time, without any real risk because, in the worst case scenario, they can sell it to Mainlanders. If Chinese buyers were no longer seen as infinitely rich, there would be pandemonium at the thought that the bottom line for houses might actually be what they are worth as places to live.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“people in Vancouver believe that rich Chinese folks will buy their houses at any time that they care to sell.”

Not anymore. That is why prices of SFH are down 30% from peak and heading a lot lower. The smart money knows the Chinese thing is done. (Hyper-mega-bull does not = smart money).

Whistler or bust?
Guest
Whistler or bust?

Don’t tell Oracle. He says prices in Surrey are flat.

patriotz
Member

He said “people in Vancouver”, not “The smart money”.

🙂

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

That’s definitely a possibility. I think it would be short term bullish and long term bearish.

In the short term more money and people will escape China because a China that isn’t growing is at risk for social instability. Many of those people and that money will come here. There are 300k canadians living in HK. The result will be a blow off top.

Long-term, with wealth creation in China coming to an end HAM stops and the prime mover of Vancouver real estate disappears. There is nothing left holding up the market. Saudis aren’t here in great enough numbers yet.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“The result will be a blow off top. Long-term, with wealth creation in China coming to an end HAM stops and the prime mover of Vancouver real estate disappears.”

H-M-B you missed the memo. You are about 12 months behind. The blow off top was early Spring 2016 and HAM has already disappeared. Even the RE pumpers are predicting 2017 double digit losses in YVR SFH.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I agree.

However, the bullish input from Chinese moving money would be more than balanced by the bearish impact of locals losing faith in China. Remember, the total direct impact of HAM is tiny compared to the impact of the perception of HAM. Also, in the event of a disorderly collapse, there may not be any money to move.

patriotz
Member

“Saudis aren’t here in great enough numbers yet.”

Saudis aren’t in Saudi Arabia in great enough numbers. Anyway, the place is going broke.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Chinese officials had hoped that, as a businessman, Trump would be open to negotiating deals,”

You have to love Trump. He starts at such an extreme position anyone who negotiates with him is just happy he even talks with them. China is about to get a lesson. No more weak Obama to deal with. Unfortunately Jr Trudeau will get a similar lesson. These people who have never earned anything in the real world won’t know what hit them. Trump will walk away with everything. It is going to be fun to watch.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Or maybe his extreme stance on China will be yet another campaign platform he drops before the inauguration.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You wish.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Death by China is a great film, anyone who hasn’t seen it should do so to get a full accounting of how those evil scumbags are trying to destroy us.

Another genius move by Trump.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
Just me
Guest
Just me

It turns my stomach to read more news confirming the soft colonization of BC.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

That shit should start sorting itself out soon with US stance on China and their unconventional presence in the US closest neighbourhood.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

If Turdeau doesn’t smarten up, I’m going to send an impassioned plea to Trump begging him to send in troops to rescue Canada from the communist chinese and our communist sympathizer government.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

So instead of a soft invasion by China you want an actual military invasion from the US. Isn’t calling for a foreign invasion of Canada an act of treason?

Just me
Guest
Just me

More than 6,300 households in the city delayed paying their property taxes in 2016, under a provincial tax deferment program. Although that is only about three per cent of total residential properties in the City of Vancouver, it amounts to a $36.8 million tax bill footed by the B.C. government for just the one municipality.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-homeowners-owe-36-8-million-in-property-taxes-1.3904380

Are they hoping that thr RE-friendly government of Christy Clark will eventually write off and forgivr these taxes? I would not be surprised if she came up eith the usual sob story about elderly ladies unable to cope with taxes and facing eviction.

Poor, elderly multimillionaires.

fomostyle
Guest
fomostyle

Ironically it is often the wealthiest who do delay these taxes.

Whistler or bust?
Guest
Whistler or bust?

Why wouldn’t they its almost free?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Nothing ironic about it – rich people don’t get that way by pissing their money away.

patriotz
Member

“I would not be surprised”

I sure would. It would be extremely unpopular with the 90%+ of people footing the bill, and since it would count as a government expenditure it would increase the deficit and threaten the government’s credit rating.

history
Guest
history

Dec stats, update Dec 23

http://www.myrealtycheck.ca

Average Change: -3.79% Up:105 Down:671
Overall $ Change: -48,257,449.00 Average Change Amount:-62,187.43

patriotz
Member

Lend first-time buyers cash to buy houses, Ontario realtor chief says

Tim Hudak, chief executive officer of the Ontario Real Estate Association, said Wednesday he liked the newest housing announcement from British Columbia Premier Christy Clark

Until last year, Hudak was the leader of the PC Party of Ontario. Although Ontario does not have BC’s craziest RE boosting policies, no provincial party has proposed any solutions comparable to those advocated by the BC NDP.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Like Krusty, this asshole is getting paid under the table by the real estate cartel.

Just me
Guest
Just me

China Flexes Economic Muscle, Scores Diplomatic Hat Trick

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-22/china-scores-diplomatic-hat-trick-after-flexing-economic-muscle

Three nations on three continents — Norway, Mongolia and the tiny West African country of Sao Tome and Principe — together this week demonstrated China’s readiness to use its economic leverage to achieve its national interests.

AddCanada to that list. We have sold out our country (and land).

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Er, no we haven’t. Stop being a drama queen.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Good memo to Canada’s politicians…


Stein Ringen, a Norwegian professor of sociology and social policy at the University of Oxford, called the decision a “humiliation for Norway,” which has cast itself as a leading defender of human rights.

“Norway was made an example of,” said Ringen, author of “The Perfect Dictatorship: China in the 21st Century.” Ringen said China’s message was, “if you want to be on business terms with us, kowtow, bring tribute and accept our interests as we define them and our versions of history and international relations.”

MarKoz
Member

Hi Pope:

I tried to post a series of stories with 4 links in it and it seemed to get eaten by your spam filter. It illustrates how every time the Federal Liberals bring in measures to try to slow housing demand, Christy brings in some sort of countervailing measures to boost it. I will try posting again, please check for it in your junk file.

MarKoz
Member
Just me
Guest
Just me

Christy Clark is unashamedly in favor of booming house prices. She has made it clear over and over again.
More affordability in her view means larger and larger mortgages, and debt for life.

Affordable prices are not something she will EVER pursue.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Don’t Want More Debt? You ‘Don’t Live In Real World,’ Christy Clark Says
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/12/20/christy-clark_n_13751800.html

>>> very similar to comments she made about Fort St John a while back…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

BNN: A look at key Canadian housing measures unveiled in 2016
http://www.bnn.ca/a-look-back-at-key-canadian-housing-measures-unveiled-in-2016-1.637720

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Bubble fears, intervention and runaway prices: The year housing boiled over”, BNN

http://www.bnn.ca/bubble-fears-intervention-and-runaway-prices-the-year-housing-boiled-over-1.637701

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Experts weigh in on B.C.’s loan program for first-time homebuyers”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/experts-weigh-in-on-british-columbias-first-time-homebuyers-initiative/article33419797/

“A new interest-free loan program touted by the British Columbia government as a boon to first-time homebuyers who are struggling to save for a down payment is drawing harsh criticism from economists and other experts who pan the proposal as a politically motivated move that is likely to inflate housing prices even further.”

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