BC, data, equity, prices, supply

Condo sales see big drop in December

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105 Comments

So far it’s been single family homes that have seen the biggest drop in sales and prices in Vancouver with condo sales chugging right along.  That may be changing. Whether you blame it on market changes or weather, Vancouver condo sales saw a 23.7% drop in December.

Bubble talk might be impacting sales, as they declined significantly across the GVR. 915 sales were logged through the MLS, this represents a 23.7% decline from the month prior. Of those sales, 1 in 4 were in Vancouver West – which only experienced a 19.9% decline from November. Declining sales is expected in December, but this was a 25.3% decrease across the GVR from the same time last year.

Of course prices are still way up from a year ago.

Read the full article over at betterdwelling.com.

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[…] –Freedom 85 for todays forty year olds? –CMHC: speculation driving up BC, Toronto & Hamilton –No foreign buyer tax for leasehold (cause you don’t own it) –White Rock: Waterfront ghost town –Interest free loans can hurt buyers – […]

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Smitty

Did you know that some leasehold properties are NOT subject to BC’s new foreign buyers tax? This has been really under -reported. This is the only place I’ve seen reference to it. But it also applies to the Tsleiwaututh properties in Deep Cove.

http://www.westerninvestor.com/news/opinion/first-nation-titles-free-from-b-c-foreign-tax-1.3130473

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Newcomer

That’s because those properties are not for sale, they are just for lease, which is kind of an advanced version of being for rent.

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Just me

The bank of economists are simply repeating (and accepting) what UBC and SFU economists have been saying for a while: follow the money. And look where it comes from.

We need to stop the illicit money flows into Vancouver from mainland China. Until that happens, we are at risk of ever rising housing prices.

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patriotz

Just need to stop the money going into RE, something which the provincial government has the power to do on its own.

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bullwhip29

Toronto and Victoria upward spiral driven by foreign money – BMO
http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/toronto-and-victoria-upward-spiral-driven-by-foreign-money–bmo-220209.aspx

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bullwhip29

Home thoughts in the Year of the Rooster
http://vancouversun.com/life/homes/home-thoughts-in-the-year-of-the-rooster

“For Grace Kwok, co-owner of Anson Realty, Lunar New Year is all about new beginnings, a new start. It’s like when you rewind something or reboot — like your cellphone, when you close it down and restart it, it seems to work better,” she says with a laugh.”

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southseacompany

“Los Angeles Sees Biggest Drop in Home Sales Since 2008”, Mansion Global

http://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/52337-los-angeles-sees-biggest-drop-in-home-sales-since-2008

“The U.S. election and interest rate rises led to a slowdown in demand last year”

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southseacompany

“U.S. 30-year mortgage rates rise for 1st time in four weeks – Freddie”, Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-mortgages-freddie-mac-idUSW1N1D3019

“Interest rates on U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose for the first time in four weeks in step with bond yields on expectations of faster growth and inflation underpinned by actions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump, according to mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac on Thursday.”

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southseacompany

“U.S. new home sales tumble in December”, Global News

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/u-s-new-home-sales-tumble-in-december-1.3258055

“uch of the sales growth during 2016 came from low mortgage rates and a steadily improving job market. But 2017 begins with some of that momentum possibly stalling as mortgage rates have risen since the November presidential election, worsening affordability and potentially curbing sales as more buyers cope with affordability issues.”

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patriotz

Needless to say this is an upscale neighbourhood. A good example of how NYC is cheap compared to Vancouver.

https://www.zillow.com/blog/trumps-childhood-home-auctioned-210679/

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Newcomer

True, but NYC just doesn’t have the jobs or the amenities of Vancouver.

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southseacompany

“Is it Freedom 85 for today’s forty somethings?”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/relationships/is-it-freedom-85-for-todays-fortysomethings/article33771301/

““This is the prime decade to start thinking about retirement, absolutely,” says Jim Yih, an Edmonton-based retirement planner. “You start to think about things in your 40s: Do I have enough time? Do I have enough money? Have I saved enough?””

“For many people in their 40s, the answers are probably, no. Chances are, not even close. Part of the problem might be living large: Today’s fortysomething have taken on record high mortgages and are drowning in record levels of consumer debt.”

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bullwhip29

i think many in this target group are likely aware these debts can never be paid off in their lifetimes and are simply hoping they can stay on the hamster wheel long enough to build up some equity and eventually cash out and retire comfortably with whatever winnings are left over. a lot of big assumptions here…

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Newcomer

“It’s hard to consider going without the amenities our parents did, but the fact is, our jobs aren’t as good as theirs were.”

In the 70s and 80s people did not buy SUVs worth a year’s salary and bring in teams of contractors to reno their houses. It’s all about consumption, and most of that consumption is all about debt. We all lined up to return to the feudal system.

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bullwhip29

Travellers from Asia drive Vancouver’s travel trends
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/chinese-new-year-travellers-from-asia-drive-vancouvers-travel-trends

“…YVR passenger data from two years with the same Lunar New Year date, 1995 and 2014, shows that traffic for January and February more than doubled (up 117 per cent and 103 per cent, respectively) during those two decades.”

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MarKoz

“What the tax did” – Sorry if this has already been posted. Paywall, so article provided whole. With so many IIP buyers still in play, I still find it hard to believe that the foreign buyer’s tax is responsible for the decline. Anyway: What the tax did The evidence to date leaves no doubt that the tax on foreign buyers is doing just what it’s supposed to do to Vancouver home prices. Here’s how it looks in living colour, courtesy of BMO Nesbitt Burns: “The vertical line marks the spot at which the non-resident tax went into effect in the Greater Vancouver area,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter. “We have enough history now to distinguish the clear divergence between Vancouver (down) and Toronto (still straight up),” he said in a research note. “And, in case there was any doubt… Read more »

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Newcomer

I don’t think so. What Trump has in mind is not so much isolationist as imperialist. He’s not saying there will be no more trade, he’s saying there will be no more fair trading conditions. He still wants to deal, he just wants to be sure that he “wins” in the deal. Part of that would, of course, involve making China lose. You can be sure, for example, that trade talks with Australia and Japan will include conditions such as their not making better deals with China.

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bullwhip29

B.C. pension fund to sell Canadian hotel portfolio for more than $1-billion
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/streetwise/bc-pension-fund-to-sell-canadian-hotel-portfolio-for-more-than-1-billion/article33767646

British Columbia’s public pension fund manager is moving to sell off its portfolio of large Canadian hotels, which is valued at more than $1-billion, as it retools its real estate investment strategy, according to people familiar with the sale process.

British Columbia Investment Management Corp. has entered into an agreement to sell SilverBirch Hotels & Resorts, including its 26 hotel assets and management operations, to Leadon Investment Inc., a private investor group with ties to Hong Kong. These well-known properties span the country, including Delta hotels in Toronto, Calgary, Victoria and Halifax.

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bullwhip29

Business closures turning White Rock waterfront into a ‘ghost town’
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/business-closures-turning-white-rock-waterfront-into-a-ghost-town

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bullwhip29

Housing costs forcing mass exodus from B.C. cities
http://globalnews.ca/video/3206323/housing-costs-forcing-mass-exodus-from-b-c-cities/

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Newcomer

Oracle, could you give us your analysis on this?

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history

why dont you? save the trouble switching browsers

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Newcomer

You would have to switch IP addresses, not browsers. You could stay on the same browser. So, who do you think I am a sock puppet for?

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Oracle

Someone is filling those newly vacant residences.

Regardless, Vancouver will be an Asian city within 2 decades. Learn the official languages of China, India, and/or Philippines. I’m good on that front.

Hope your kids do well. They will since you’re background is Chinese. I just worry about the others you try to brainwash here.

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Oracle

And once Asians (I consider myself one as Canada is not a ‘country’ anymore.). It’s an open place for people to set foot in and have their motherland as base.

Since I’m not going to win convincing the white folk here about immigration (they are so screwed and they don’t even know it) then I’m gonna try my darnest to make sure we get a majority here in the lower mainland.

Then we can truly call the shots. T minus less than 20 years.

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Newcomer

Hey, have you tried Reddit? I hear it’s a great place to talk about things like ethnic backgrounds and so on. People there may be interested in that kind of discussion.

Say, speaking of topics, this is a real estate site and I was wondering if you had any opinion on that. For instance, would you consider buying a home at the moment?

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YVR

It is not berry season. Oracle hopes to be the top berry picker in the Spring and can then save up that 2.5% downpayment requirement.

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YVR

“Asians (I consider myself one”

What are you going to switch from picking berries and delivering flyers in Abbotsford and Surrey to collecting pop cans in Vancouver?

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Best place on meth

Another 17 west side houses listed today, 1 sold.

Did chinese new year come and go already? I don’t recall hearing a bunch of annoying loud drumming.

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Foo Man

Do you and your mom have a system worked out so that she can deliver the pizza bagel to your room without interrupting while you furiously masturbate to asian porn?

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Combat roach

Are you talking from a personal experience? Food choice sounds like mainland peasant grasping the western nutrition and also that deviant sexual obsession, same as spaceshit.

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Oh NO

Landlord headed to HK tomorrow asked to pick up rent today…sure NP… picks up assessment notice too, says crazy buy the way Im listing the property soon says cash out time.

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Oracle

Assessments have nothing to do with tax rate. Educate yourselves.

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Oh NO

How East side today looks

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Sebastien

Hi Everyone,

Is this a typo or a MLS mistake?

1214 Como Lake Avenue, Coquitlam
Nov 24:$2,499,900
Jan 12: $1,099,900
Change: – 1400000.00 -56%

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vangrl

Lot was subdivided

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paulb

New
180
Price Change
20
Sold
74
TI:7648

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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No Money Down

Sold Over Asking! Has it started again?

4643 DUNBAR STREET
Listed: $1.688M
Sold: $1.838M

Oh wait…
Assessed: $2.087M

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Oh NO

Classic case of knife catching

CCOKC

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Dave

I actually think that’s a good price. It’s worth $4 million once the City allows redevelopment, which they eventually will.

Don’t get me wrong though, I think a lot of typical SFH pricing is crazy. But this lot isn’t your typical one.

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Newcomer

It’s good to have your insight. I was wondering why we had a return of the bidding wars for this one.

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Emma

Just heard Better Dwelling and a big 5 bank are going to be presenting this correlation to a conference of money laundering fraud investigators. This is going to be huge.

https://betterdwelling.com/chinese-gangs-and-canadian-real-estate-the-odd-correlation/

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Oracle

Many bureaucrats probably on payroll as well.

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history

nah, this isnt India or China… but the bullocrats Are snowflake HELOC addicts, which is just as bad, considering the Enormous reverse doji candle that occurred Nov 8th

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southseacompany

“Airbnb pays off Vancouver home price 60% faster than renting: study” Metro Vancouver

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/01/25/airbnb-pays-off-vancouver-home-price-60pc-faster-renting.html

“Vancouver homeowners can recoup the cost of their home 60 per cent faster by posting it on Airbnb than renting it out to tenants, according to a new report released Wednesday.”

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Patiently Waiting

This was posted above. I think the consensus is that this study is BS.

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Combat roach

A great learning advice for an aspiring investor.

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YVR

I can produce a study that shows you can make $300k per year collecting pop cans.

It takes 30 seconds to pick up 15 cans from a bin = $1.50 per 30 seconds work. That is $180 per hour. Multiply by 1 years working hours and there you go. About as likely as the Airbnb numbers.

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Best place on meth

Tell me more about this can picking venture.

It sounds promising.

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Newcomer

As earlier, the article is totally misleading. The study just calculated the months of rent needed. In Vancouver, they used a 3 bedroom selling at $865,344 and renting at $2,540. That means that 28 years of rent equals the purchase price, but there is no way you could actually pay it off in just 28 years. If you financed it, the rent wouldn’t even cover interest and property taxes in the first year. If it was a cash deal, even without opportunity cost, strata, taxes, maintenance, etc would push it out to something more like 40 years.

https://nested.com/index/2017/global?currency=usd

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southseacompany

“West Vancouver’s population shrank in 2016”, North Shore News

http://www.nsnews.com/news/west-vancouver-s-population-shrank-in-2016-1.8719731

“While most municipalities in the region are showing moderate population growth, West Vancouver is the fastest shrinking city in the Lower Mainland.”

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Oracle

There are more people living there now. Just less citizens and PR.

Ask ICBC.

Most new residents are foreign students, 10 yr visa holders, Supervisa holders, IMP holders.

More fake news propagated by MSM and helped along with people like Newcomer. Paid to post with your tax dollars.

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Oracle

Those people aren’t counted in population stats. Only PR and Citizens.

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Oracle

Newcomer and YVR busy downvoting.

Ban these idiots Admin.

They are poisoning the discussion. Really? Vancouver population shrinking?? This blog gonna be laughing stock of all blogs.

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Confucius

Fake news is terrible. It’s so awful when people say or write things that are untrue.

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history

hijack the narrative, Alinsky ‘Rules for Radicals’

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Newcomer

We had the stats from metro Vancouver on the visa holders and students. You were proven wrong. Take it like a dignified woman and stand corrected.

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southseacompany

“Vancouver’s population growing slower than province’s”, Vancouver Courier

http://www.vancourier.com/news/vancouver-s-population-growing-slower-than-province-s-1.8868736

“Insights into why won’t be available until Census date revealed in February”

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Newcomer

Yeah, it’s pretty hard to figure out.

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patriotz

If you read far enough down you’ll see they are talking about the City of Vancouver, whose population has been growing slower than the province’s for a very long time, because most of the vacant land in the province is outside CoV. Duh. Circa 1970 CoV’s population was actually falling in absolute terms.

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history

duh, gays dont reproduce

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Best place on meth

They don’t need to, they can adopt.

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