Open Topic

Friday Free-for-all! Happy Friday 13th!

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268 Comments

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all, our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–BC Gov to spend $1.2 billion on homeowner assistance?
–BC Housing supply hits highest level in decades
–Detached avg sales price down 22% year over year.
–Prices to drop 8.5% in 2017
–Or 50 to 80% drop from peak?
–Downgrade of CIBC, Genworth & Home Capital
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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[…] too early to call this one, but Whistler or Bust points out the steep crash in December prices at the National Bank home price index. This one is […]

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Bear Vancouverite

As for Steve Saretsky, what a real trooper. Here’s his post from yesterday: http://vancitycondoguide.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/ Some selected passages from the post (I encourage you to read the whole thing): “The entry level condo market is still chugging along. Whatever entry level is for your specific area. In Vancouver that’s the sub $600,000 market, in Richmond that’s the sub $400,000 market. These markets are still relatively “affordable” and thanks to Christy Clarks brilliant first time home buyers loan, it could keep pace. I was showing condos in Richmond this weekend in the $300,000 range, open houses were busy. Affordable Richmond condos are selling quick, some still going to multiple offers.” Townhouses are heading DOWN: “At the midway point of January there have only been a combined 5 sales in Vancouver East and West. For comparison, there were 22 sales in the same… Read more »

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Whistler or Bust?

I was just looking at the National Bank house price index which for those of you who are unfamiliar only measures sales of the exact same property to create its figures

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

If you follow the link and click on Vancouver you will see the chart descends sharply downward as of December. I will not that it appears to be steeper than in 2008. I am expecting that after January is in the line will be somewhere near a 45 degree angle.

Can anyone with a straight face deny we are in a crash?

PS – Prices in Whistler are actually going up but that is a tiny market with Americans buying with $0.75 dollars.

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Boombust

I believe it when Ross Kay stated on “This Week in Money” awhile back that Vancouver is now in bull-blown crash mode.

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Boombust

BTW, I just read one of Steve Saretsky’s tweets; he says that January sales figures will be “horrific”…

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Bear Vancouverite

In my mind there’s a correction under way right now. What is not certain is where that correction stops. I can’t speak for everyone else, but I get the feeling some thing now we’ll revert to “mean”.

Personally, I think its dangerous to make projections/predictions based on the small hump in the National Bank chart. I like how promising it looks, but I’m not going to celebrate until I see prices roll back at least to 2009 or earlier.

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Abdul lahazi

I have seen a few new “sold” signs on properties that have been for sale for months.

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paulb

New
303
Price Change
26
Sold
65

TI:6944

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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Boombust

VERY low sales numbers. What say?

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Shut It Down Already

Last year:

paulb
New
279
Sold
68
TI:7061

http://www.paulboenisch.com

00
11 months 29 days agom

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southseacompany

“Canadian Home Prices Slow After Vancouver Sales Drop 40%”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/16/home-sales-prices-canada-vancouver-toronto_n_14202664.html

“Home sales in Canada hit an all-time high in 2016, but with new mortgage rules in place and mortgage rates rising, 2017 promises to be a different story, experts say.’

“Residential sales in Vancouver were down 40 per cent in December, compared to the same month a year earlier. That’s taken the steam out of the city’s house price growth. The average price for all housing types, $948,246, is 3.4 per cent lower than a year earlier.”

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Just me

Nice while it lasted.
It was so nice not to have Space ruining this blog for everyone. Nobody really appreciates what he contributes, he simply disrupts the flow of the conversation. The guy has serious issues, but this is not the venue to resolve them.

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Newcomer

I think everyone agrees.

Space, you should go play somewhere else. Your posts really are disruptive and distracting and do not make any kind of useful or entertaining contribution. There must be lots about you to like, but your posts on this blog aren’t one of those things. Go and develop those other things and leave us alone, please.

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space889

Is it lack of use of profanities? Not referring to China as a hellhole, or Chinese as locust scumbags that disappoints you? Not enough cheering of racists BS put out by team BPOM? Or just too much discomforting info that the world just might work the way you thought?

Oh well…I had some hopes for you…but I guess in the end, birds of the same kind flock together, and you like to hang with racists pigs who are resentful of everything and everyone else…especially people who should be poor, working in menial jobs, and forever be grateful to the white men who allowed them in.

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Newcomer

Like some others, you got the wrong idea about what the subject of this blog is. It’s real estate, not race. I’ve heard that there a places on Reddit where you can discuss race. They might suit you.

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BubbleTea

Goodbye Krusty and good riddance.
“It’s embarrassing,” UBC political science professor Max Cameron said. “The New York Times is saying the emperor has no clothes, and it’s one thing for people here to say it, but it’s another thing when it’s publicized globally.”
http://globalnews.ca/news/3182946/its-embarrassing-experts-politicians-weigh-in-on-new-york-times-article-exposing-b-c-political-cash/?sf51108156=1

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Newcomer

I don’t think most voters care about that. I think they will turn a blind eye in exchange for keeping house prices up.

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Oracle

Yes. Liberal majority with the help of the NDP.

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Whistler or Bust?

Sorry Oracle perhaps you missed my post. Here it is again.

Sorry I have missed a lot of the comments in the last few weeks.

Is it true that Oracle has sold the house he was building in Surrey?

If so why?

I thought prices had barely moved there and any drop would be met with strong buying from immigrants?

Contrary to many on this site, I think Oracle provides a different view point. Further, he is almost always polite in his posts.

Oracle can you answer these questions?

Thanks

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YVR

Oracle is too embarrassed to tell you she was lying about pretty much everything.

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Oracle

Lol

I’d be embarrassed if I was wrong for 10 years straight.

I’m just sitting on the sidelines…gonna watch how the massive crash you guys predict in 2017 just doesn’t happen.

Just like 2016,

2015,

2014,

2013,

2012,

2011 – ‘after the Olympics’ Lol

2010

2009- it did but but but the Feds. Lol

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

Maybe your missing something staring you straight in the face:

Concentrated Immigration/Temp Immigration/Foreign money inflows.

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bullwhip29

Canadian home sales rose in December, average home worth $470,661
http://globalnews.ca/news/3183813/canadian-home-sales-rose-in-december-average-home-worth-470661/

>>> so, in other words, most detached homes in Vanc proper increased in value by as much or more than what the average home sells for nationwide (where prices increased YoY by just a fraction of what a local realtor makes in commission for a single typical sale)

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bullwhip29

was out for dinner yesterday. overheard HAM at next table discussing the possibility of a huge 35% tariff on BMWs (and possibly other luxury imports) and that they all had to rush out and order as many as they could get their hands on, some for personal use, some for resale… i got to hand it to these guys, the wheels are always turning. we’ll see if this has any legs or not…

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Newcomer

Were you out to dinner in the States or do you think they were visiting American tourists?

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Shut It Down Already

Haha, nice one.

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bullwhip29

Robertson has lowest approval rating among big city mayors: poll
http://www.news1130.com/2017/01/16/gregor-robertson-lowest-rating-among-big-city-mayors-poll/

>>> for his sake he better come out of hiding before Salt Crisis 2: The Big Dump hits theatres

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Newcomer

That crisis should be averted by the SALT II treaty.

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bullwhip29

Tiny-house movement gets big push forward in Vancouver campaign
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/tiny-house-movement-gets-big-push-forward-in-vancouver-campaign/article33630429/

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bullwhip29

Gordon Clark: Metro’s management class could be leaving in droves
http://theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/gordon-clark-metros-management-class-could-be-leaving-in-droves

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squeak

But the softening end of article says: “If the Resonance/Insights West data are true, prices could fall even further. It appears that the Metro Vancouver housing market is about to prove that old saying that “what goes up, must come down.” Look out below.” “could even fall further” – are we throwing a tiny bone at the young, management class: Oh, don’t leave yet, it could get better. As I have said before, young and young families, should not waste their time or hold their breath for the housing in Vancouver to become reasonable. Look after yourself first, this government that keeps getting voted in is not looking after you. And the most radical way to look after yourself now, is to dump this province. Do not look at words that are said, look at what has been done, look… Read more »

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Just me

The last paragraph is on topic

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-38587580

Following a crackdown on a rare protest against pollution in the central city of Chengdu recently, one blogger dared to speak out in favour of the protesters. The police, he suggested, should bear in mind that the elites, whose interests they protect, have sent their families to breathe clean air overseas.

He was promptly detained.

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space889

This relates to local RE how?

There are over 100,000 protests in China every year…I’ve seen one large protest that lasted over 1 week, ended with no one arrested, factory owner got fined & forced to install proper air scrubber equipment.

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space888

他妈的你

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Stratahacker

There goes the neighbourhood. Sigh.

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bullwhip29

Analyst says B.C. should look to India for international students as other markets slow
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/asia-pacific-analyst-says-b-c-should-look-to-india-for-international-students-as-other-markets-slow

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Newcomer

Those numbers don’t seem to match up with what we know to be the truth from Oracle’s reports. They must be from an unreliable source like Statscan.

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Oracle

“A Statistics Canada report last fall said almost 20 per cent of B.C.’s university students come from abroad, with provincial data showing China (51,130), South Korea (12,695) and India (12,105) as the top three origins.”

In 2015, was 1/5 students at BC universities .

Now is 1/4 students at BC universities.

Parents come in on 10 year visitor visa. Tens of thousands of homes were being purchased. Now just have to wait until little johnny gets PR.

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Oracle

Something about my posts burns you up…maybe the truth?

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Newcomer

Not at all. I like your enthusiasm and your boundless confidence. I do sometimes worry that your paranoia may cause you to suffer, and I hope that you will monitor that and speak to a doctor or religious counselor if you find yourself unhappy, but I have great affection for you and your posts.

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space889

Religious counselor? Next thing you know, he’s going to go on and on and on about a Canadian purge jihad to cleanse motherland of all ilks from Asian and anyone of that descent.

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space888

他妈的你

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bullwhip29

‘It’s embarrassing’: Experts, politicians weigh in on New York Times article exposing B.C. political cash
http://globalnews.ca/news/3182946/its-embarrassing-experts-politicians-weigh-in-on-new-york-times-article-exposing-b-c-political-cash/

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bullwhip29

Richmond looks to address megahomes built on farmland
http://globalnews.ca/video/3183130/richmond-looks-to-address-megahomes-built-on-farmland/

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Whistler or Bust?

Sorry I have missed a lot of the comments in the last few weeks.

Is it true that Oracle has sold the house he was building in Surrey?

If so why?

I thought prices had barely moved there and any drop would be met with strong buying from immigrants?

Contrary to many on this site, I think Oracle provides a different view point. Further, he is almost always polite in his posts.

Oracle can you answer these questions?

Thanks

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Best place on meth

Ah yes, the poster who tells us 20 times a day why transitory people like temp workers, foreign students and even mere tourists are all buying up real estate here.

I have nothing against different viewpoints as long as they’re not completeley ridiculous.

By the way, Oracle lied about ever owning a house.

Carry on.

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space889

Like yours?

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space888

他妈的你

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No Money Down

Going through a few sold listings. I assume that the Assessed value represents (on average) what the properties would have sold for last summer at the peak of the market.

870 W 24TH AVENUE
Assessed $2.56M
Sold $2.05M (20% below assessed)

2341 41ST AVE E VANCOUVER
Assessed $2.08M
Sold $1.97M (5.3% below assessed)

3225 TRUTCH ST VANCOUVER
Assessed $3.78M
Sold $3.28M (13% below assessed)

3275 22ND AVE W VANCOUVER
Assessed $4.06M
Sold $3.47M (15% below assessed)

1487 27TH AVE E VANCOUVER
Assessed $1.51M
Sold $1,21M (20% below assessed)

You get the picture. Somewhere around 15% below the peak.

I am not able to determine whether secret bags of unmarked bills also changed hands under the table to reduce the 15% foreign buyers tax payable. Oracle might have more insight on that.

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Oracle

Sounds about right for properties over $1.5 million.

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YVR

What happens when a property that was assessed at $1.5 million at peak sells for 30% lower at $1.05 Million? Do you think that may puts some downward pressure on lower priced properties in the $1.0 million range at peak? Then if those drop what happens to the $700K place? All properties sales are connected.

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Oracle

Detached prices in Surrey to Abby have barely budged compared to Vancouver. Explain that?

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YVR

“I assume that the Assessed value represents (on average) what the properties would have sold for last summer at the peak of the market.”

Assessed is almost always lower than the market value. If they assessed at actual market value they would be swamped with people disputing the assessed value to try to lower their taxes. If prices are selling 20% below assessed that indicates prices are down closer 30% from time of assessment.

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bullwhip29

it is a given that BC Assessment/e-valueBC website will probably not be publicly accessible starting next Jan as govt officials not to mention underwater RE investors enter the “denial” stage of investment grief. naturally, all parties involved will cite privacy concerns and the like which (as one would expect) weren’t an issue whatsoever during the tulip mania years

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Shut It Down Already

It’s not a given. People need to be able to check their assessments against their neighbours in order to establish fairness. There’s no chance they take that site offline if prices decline.

The government also has no reason to be in denial.

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bullwhip29

what did RE owners do before assessments were put online? and don’t kid yourself, this govt will do anything and everything if it benefits them. i can guarantee you that information will be a heck of a lot more difficult to obtain if/when the SHTF

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Shut It Down Already

Remove the tinfoil.

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patriotz

The SHTF before in 2008 and the assessments stayed on line. The government knows perfectly well that hiding such information would only make people assume things were even worse. And anyway you have data from REBGV and Teranet which get media coverage monthly, as opposed to assessments which are annual.

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Kim

Anecdote: several of my realtor friends are remarking how they are cutting back on spending because of the slow market. Things they used to spend quite frivolously on they no longer are. Even a 50 dollar hair cut is become too expensive for them.

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Best place on meth

Just wait until that sentiment becomes commonplace among the general population of homeowners with large mortgages.

Restaurant business down, grocery stores packed.

$50 haircuts? I hope these are women.

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bullwhip29

it is already happening. standard sales looking more and more like black friday events as increasingly grumpy consumers look to stretch dollars further and restaurants being busy only during promotions/groupon/dineout etc. and totally empty otherwise. and dont get me started on the merchandise returns line at costco…

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Newcomer

Really? I haven’t noticed this. Has anyone else noticed this?

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Time to go

Not I, went for dinner Friday evening with the wife and couldn’t get in to a couple of restaurants on main. Finally got in to Fable. Doesn’t seem like things have slowed at restaurants.

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Oh NO

Gonna be a lot of Fabio agents working as greeters/Walmart

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southseacompany

“The Big Boom: Metro Vancouver Adding Record Supply of Housing”, Steve Saretsky, Van City Condo Guide

http://vancitycondoguide.com/the-big-boom/

“Metro Vancouver saw 27,914 units started in 2016, 57% above the 10 year average. Further, only 19% of new housing starts were for single family homes. Interestingly, Per stats Canada, the average household consists of 2.5 people. Simple math shows we are building enough supply for 69,785 new households. Population growth is only expected at 30,000 people per year. So are we building enough? You be the judge.”

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Oracle

So only 10% of all immigrants come to. Euro Vancouver along with 0% temps?

Or 0% immigrants come to metro Vancouver when we know he foreign student population of metro vancouver grows by about 30,000 per year?

Right! LMAO.

Read why the Statscan head resigned.

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Bear Vancouverite

Each time you ask us to check facts or read about something, like “Ready why Statscan head resigned”, could you link to a credible source?

Thanks.

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Shut It Down Already

He resigned due to structural and operational reasons which led to a perceived loss of independence. Not because numbers are fabricated.

Of course, certain posters now think they get to refute anything from StatsCan by implying that the numbers are faked. It’s an idiots dream come true.

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Oracle

Now we got 3 stooges here who try to deflect criticism of foreign money inflows. This blog is doomed.

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Newcomer

And the Committee has the funds to hire many more. I know that you are working toward a DP on a Surrey condo (or SFH) and may need some extra cash. If you would like to apply to work on this blog, meet me at the north entrance to Tianmon Square tomorrow at 3. We can work something out.

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Spec

“This blog is doomed.” … says the repeat sock-puppet master/liar. Credibility = 0.

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Bear Vancouverite

I feel like the past week the blog discussion has gotten better. Not surprisingly it was also when Oracle’s repetitive immigration message was toned down, and space has been mostly absent, and there’s a bit more on topic discussion.

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Just me

Yes, it is noticeably better. Fewer ad personam attacks, more facts and certainly no silly innuendos that nobody really enjoys.
Thanks Pope!

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Best place on meth

Told ya’.

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space889

You mean unfettered, and welcoming environment to post anything bearish RE or racist and hateful comments about Chinese people, then yes.

I guess BPOM and rest of you have less to prove when there is no one to call out your bullshits, bubble vision, or simply trying to educate you a little about the world, beyond MSM fake news propagandas.

Yeah for freedom of speech right?!

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space888

他妈的你

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Just me

To remind everyone on the blog about the situation, here is a clear statement from GS:

The monetary authority’s yuan positions — which reflect the amount of foreign currency held on its balance sheet — slumped by 383 billion yuan ($55 billion) in November, PBOC data showed. A total of $1.1 trillion of foreign currency has left China since August 2015, when China devalued the yuan, according to Goldman.Dec 18, 2016

Do you really think that this tsunami of money has only a marginal effect on housing markets loved by the Chinese?
This amount of money (especially if leveraged) makes the standard credit market effect look tiny.

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Oracle

No educated person would deny that. People with vested interests just trying to confuse the less educated as a vote is a vote.

Even a small amount of that money entering real state causes shock waves. here in Vancouver, we are more affected because of all the “Locals”. The 10 year visa holders, foreign students, IMP have all been grounded due to the 15% tax.

BUT, this has given the local100,000’s of recent PR’s a huge opportunity to buy with them continuing to funnel money in. They are the ones buying now…with money China has deemed illegal.

This should even be debated at all here. Ban those who try to throw a wrench into this discussion.

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Shut It Down Already

Alas, the stats don’t really agree with you.

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Newcomer

“This should even be debated at all here. Ban those who try to throw a wrench into this discussion.” — The Committee likes your style, comrade.

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