data, predictions, prices, supply

Full-blown crash mode?

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Way too early to call this one, but Whistler or Bust points out the steep crash in December prices at the National Bank home price index. This one is interesting because it only measures sales of the exact same property to get it’s numbers.

If you go to housepriceindex.ca and click Vancouver you’ll see a chart that shows the recent dip, which looks like one of the steepest declines on the index so far.

Some realtors have stated that January sales are not looking very good so far and Paul Boenisch posts daily numbers here that are showing listings bumping up in the new year, but not too much on the sales numbers so far.

Paul also has a new website up at clivestevepaul.com if you’re looking for help buying or selling particularly on the north shore.  That’s a shout out to a realtor who has consistently shared daily sales stats for years and years for your amusement and edification. Cheers Paul!

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[…] not as many as Quebec which created more full time jobs than any other province and accounts for 42% of national labor […]

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Just me

Could the cheaper cost of housing have anything to do with this?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-18/there-s-a-surprise-leader-in-canada-s-race-for-smart-global-jobs

Quebec accounts for 42% of national labor force growth in 2016. Added more full time jobs than any other Province.

Question for Crooked Christy supporters: how are her economic plans working out for you? Afford a good life?
Christy’s approach is top-down: social engineering of high house prices, bring in mammoth investments in LNG and so on.
But a “bottom-up” approach is preferable: make the place livable and companies will be able to attract talent and grow. Living in Quebec right now might be a lot easier than living in BC for a young, smart and entrepreneurial individual.

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No Money Down

Full Blown Crash Mode?
Zolo Stats last 4 weeks

West Van Detached Y/Y Sales -90% Y/Y, Average Price -26%
Van Detached Y/Y Sales -72%, Average Price -34%

Of course, the average price is affected by sales mix, and probably reflects continued activity at the “entry level”.

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Donald T

weather, dude.

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Oracle

Can you imagine if our corrupt government investigated the source of funds for each house that was paid for with >20% down? And set up a database with China to see who moving money out illegally.

This illegal outflows have a detrimental effect on the poor Chinese workers left back home to toil in slave like conditions. The gov there is trying to stop these illegal outflows. Canada is not helping them at all.

Then you would see a full blown crash mode.

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Shut It Down Already

Yes, damn those locals with a large downpayment from the sale of their previous residence. Let’s investigate them all. Shouldn’t be a burden on the taxpayer at all to hire enough investigators.

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Just me

Those locals where the last to take a leap over the crumbling bridge. Now there is no more bridge to take you to the other side. Feel smug as much as you want, but the reality is dire for most people in Vancouver who don’t already own, or own small condos.

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bullwhip29

BoC Governor Poloz: Rate Cut Could Be Considered If Downside Risks Materialise
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/01/18/boc-governor-poloz-rate-cut-could-be-considered-if-downside-risks-materialise/

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southseacompany

“CMHC’s mortgage insurance hike could have widespread effects: RateSpy”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/real-estate/video/cmhc-s-mortgage-insurance-hike-could-have-widespread-effects-ratespy~1037276

“Rob McLister, founder of RateSpy.com, joins BNN’s Catherine Murray for a look at the CMHC’s move to hike insurance premiums. He also discusses some interesting developments coming out of alternative mortgage lenders.”

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southseacompany

“Bank of Canada holds rates steady as focus shifts to U.S.”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-poloz-1.3940748

“The Bank of Canada opted Wednesday to keep its trend-setting interest rate at 0.5 per cent.”

“In a statement, the central bank said while “uncertainty” continues for the global economy as a whole, the forecast for Canada’s largest trading partner, the U.S, is looking up — something that could imply a rate hike down the line.”

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southseacompany

“History Repeating Itself? Toronto’s Long Record Of Housing Busts”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/18/house-prices-toronto-historic-boom-bust_n_14230574.html

“It’s clear Toronto’s housing market has a long history of booms and busts. But these aren’t Florida- or Nevada-style housing bubbles, which inflate quickly and pop suddenly. Toronto’s house-price cycles are longer and slower, and when the bust comes, it lasts for a long time.

“Toronto house prices, adjusted for inflation, have fallen for 23 of the last 63 years, or about a third of the time.”

“In other words, if you get a 25-year mortgage in Toronto today, the odds are good you will spend some eight or nine of those years watching prices fall.”

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bullwhip29

SCMP: Federal Liberals were told wealthy donor was China graft suspect
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/1/federal-liberals-were-told-wealthy-donor-was-china/

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bullwhip29

Extend foreign buyer tax to capital region, 2 Victoria councillors urge
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/extend-foreign-buyer-tax-to-capital-region-2-victoria-councillors-urge-1.7740345#sthash.DjdpVIlo.dpuf

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bullwhip29

Moby Dick’s Restaurant Barred as an Offensive Name
http://courthousenews.com/moby-dicks-restaurant-barred-as-an-offensive-name/

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patriotz

You ought to have pointed out that it was a commercial strata council that was responsible.

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Donald T

That is why reading to kids is important.

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bullwhip29

1 in 4 millennials get financial help, risking family’s retirement savings: report
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/1-in-4-millennials-get-financial-help-risking-family-s-retirement-savings-report-1.3246195

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Just me

No comment (I don’t want to write espletives….)

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/property-developers-topped-b-c-liberals-donor-list-in-the-past-year

Real estate developers topped B.C. Liberals donor list in the past year.
Eight of the 10 top donors to the B.C. Liberal party in 2016, and so far in 2017, are involved in the province’s property development and construction industries.

Crooked Christy has to go!

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Just me

By the way, what is this “restructuring” of the ALR that I have seen mentioned in public,forums recently? Any chance Christy is up,to no good again?

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bullwhip29

given recent activity, it is pretty clear that friends and family were given a heads up once again and will pocket many tens of millions in the coming years. i also think there are more moving parts to the whole massey bridge mega deal than meet they eye.

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YVR

Sounds like you know more than even Oracle. Are you buying up farm land in Richmond/Delta?

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bullwhip29

this has been ongoing for years with many big players having already monopolized much of the game board before the rules of the game were even made public…

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/developer-signs-deal-for-600-acres-of-alr-land-1.500777

http://www.bcbusiness.ca/farmland-or-more-homes-the-choice-is-metro-vancouvers

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Just me

YVR thinks it is all hunky dory, and we should just get on with it. He can’t see that there is now a sizable part of the population who is angry as they cannot even dream to have a decent life in Vancouver.

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Oracle

As expected, defending christy’s corruption.

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Best place on meth

Turdeau brutally roasted in a commentary on CBC tonight for his private dinners with communist billionaires.

Clock is ticking on this fraud.

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YVR

The CBC? Someone in the control room let that air?

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Oracle

Hearing reports that one of the aims is to privatize CBC..so the families who own most of MSM in Canada can get a oligopoly.

There is infighting at the board as to how to go about doing that while making Justin look good (Globalist policies).

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Kim

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/i-was-screaming-woman-says-of-painful-eye-lift-by-suspected-fake-doctor-1.3937934

“Bandaged patients seen leaving in luxury cars

A steady stream of luxury vehicles, including two Bentleys, a Mercedes, and a Porsche was captured on surveillance video outside the residence.”

So rich locusts rich enough to drive bentleys prefer to get their plastic surgery done from a fake doctor to save a few thousand bucks. Pretenders

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Chinabuyeverything

Anything to save a buck

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Best place on meth

“The young woman says she needs another surgery because one eye looks square and the other is triangular.”

I’m sorry, but normal eyeshapes cost $10 extra.

If you want matching shapes that will be another $10.

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Shut It Down Already

Do you ever pause to read what’s already been posted before contributing your slur-ridden garbage?

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Best place on meth

I take you still haven’t figured out why Trump won.

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patriotz

Because the electoral college lets Republicans win even if they’ve lost the popular vote.

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YVR

I thought it was Russian hacking or the FBI?

How come the Left can’t just admit the primary was rigged for Hilary to win and they got caught, Hilary is corrupt, and they ran a poor campaign targeting the wrong people?

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patriotz

The Left supported Sanders, and they certainly believe Clinton lost because she ran a lousy campaign. “Corrupt” in the absence of charges is just a slogan. Clinton did intimidate other Democrats from running (e.g. Biden who probably would have won Nov 8). As for Sanders it was his very first campaign as a Democrat and he didn’t have enough of a base with minorities to win the primaries that mattered. They weren’t “rigged”.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

it also lets democrats win even if they’ve lost the popular vote.

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patriotz

The Electoral College is biased toward the “Old America” states against the “New America” states. The fact is that the two most recent GOP winners have been elected despite losing the popular vote. You can hypothesize all you want, but reality speaks otherwise.

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Oracle

Hahaha. BS.

Texas could have came out in force and won the popular vote for trump. They didn’t because even a low turnout would mean a republican victory there.

But you already knew that.

People are not going to fall for that BS anymore.

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Oracle

Patriots is playing the card that no longer flies.

Hence, Trump elected.

Only a matter of time before Canada wakes up.

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Oracle

What BS!

No explanation needed for utter BS.

Enjoy Friday.

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bullwhip29

i think it is more about staying off the radar vs saving a few bucks in many of these cases

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Kim

http://globalnews.ca/news/3160338/report-of-plastic-rice-served-at-vancouver-restaurant-unsubstantiated-health-authorities/

Fake rice? Locusts faking out other locusts. Just like in China.

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bullwhip29

new money is not necessarily smart money

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Abdul Lahazi

My family does not eat any food produced in China or any food made in Canada by any Chinese.

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Best place on meth

Inventory is up by 322 in 2 days.

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paulb

New
272
Price Change
40
Sold
84

TI:7097

http://www.paulboenisch.com

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southseacompany

“Treasury yields are plunging”, Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-treasury-bond-market-update-january-17-2017-2017-1

“Tuesday’s bid has down to their lowest levels since at least the beginning of December. Yields rallied sharply from election night until the middle of December amid expectations President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies and plans for massive infrastructure spending would spark a return of inflation in the United States”

“The benchmark 10-year yield put in a high 2.64% the day after the Fed hiked its benchmark interest rate for just the second time since the financial crisis and said it expects three rate hikes in 2017.”

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southseacompany

“Vanguard says Bank of Canada will hike rates this year because economy is better than we think”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/vanguard-says-bank-of-canada-will-hike-rates-this-year-because-economy-is-better-than-we-think

“Canada’s economy is in better shape than many analysts think and will require an interest-rate increase by the end of the year, according to Vanguard Group Inc., the world’s second-biggest money manager.”

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Just me

“Overseas property investment by Chinese firms rises 53 percent year-on-year to $33 billion in 2016”

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-property-idUSKBN151232

“”Investing overseas is a strategic move for most Chinese investors,” Stuart Crow, JLL’s head of Asia Pacific Capital Markets, said in a note.

“While there may be some short-term slowdown or delay, we expect few long-term structural changes. The trend of Chinese capital going out for real estate is not stopping. If anything, it is going to gather momentum due to the enormous capital base in China,” he said.

China’s non-financial outbound investment hit $170.1 billion in 2016, up 44.1 percent from 2015, the commerce ministry said on Monday.”

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Just me

Hey Newcomer, this has “Chinese” in the title but it is about real estate? Allowed?

You have a reluctance to openly talk in an informed way about the impact that China is having on our lives and on Vancouver.

Having lived here for a while, perhaps casual observation should explain why people here are so interested in what the Chinese do and how they behave. It is a legitimate topic of conversation, if discussed properly.

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Newcomer

That article has a connection to real estate and is, indeed, very interesting. Thanks for posting it. At the same time, cultural stuff (like what Chinese women do after childbirth — who gives a fig?) is not interesting on a real estate blog because it does not impact the real estate market. And let’s be honest about why the cultural stuff gets posted. Some people who visit the blog resent Chinese investment because it distorts the market and, mixed up with that, they dislike people from China and/or people of Asian heritage. Often, but not always, the reason why they think that Chinese money is the main driver of Vancouver real estate in the first place is because they dislike Chinese people. So they start to see this as place where they will encounter other people who hate in the… Read more »

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The Man

Money has no ethnicity. Chinese, Millennials overextending themselves, Gen x and Boomers trading up or parking money in condos as an investment, are only the conduits. It’s the force that is pumping the money into the conduits that is the cause. And that is force has been central bankers.

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Just me

Nope. Given saving rates and growth rates in China, what we are facing us an unusually large pool of money that our relatively small city cannot handle without being changed in significant ways.
Some people have, and will become, incredibly rich from this. But the majority of us will lose. The quality if our lives will be affected negatively.

Of course, ghe guys who benefit from it will tell you otherwise. But the “China shock” is not your run of the mill economic shock. It is a monster shock that will change Canada and Vancouver forever.

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Combat roach

Our culture and society (related to housing) steadily keep degrading with all this shit that we keep importing and yet everybody gets excited about the number of direct flights between Vancouver and China. “Though practices vary depending on whether you’re from southern China, northern China or Taiwan, the basic rationale is the same: after giving birth, a mother needs a month to allow her body to recover and to prevent long-term illness. This means staying indoors, following a restricted diet, avoiding or limiting bathing and washing of hair, and staying away from strenuous activity. There is no consensus on how much of this is rooted in science. Still, in cities like Vancouver and Toronto with large Asian populations, there is now said to be a thriving industry catering to these mothers. Some service providers specialize in daily home delivery of… Read more »

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Combat roach

And of course, no TAX gets included for all those shitshow services…

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Shut It Down Already

Isn’t it time Canada banned homeopathy? I’ll wager a fair few yoga-practicing Vancouverites buy into that pseudo-scientific shit too.

I once saw a children’s homeopathic remedy that contained deadly nightshade amongst its ingredients. Think about that for a moment.

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Combat roach

Interesting, I would never think I would ever agree with you but here, totally, the same primitive crap…

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Spec

The woo woo is strong in the LM… amazingly high level of credulity. Goes a long way toward explaining the housing situation and the tacit acceptance of the “buy now or be priced out forever bullshit”…

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Newcomer

You can’t just put “(related to housing)” and thereby magically make it so. This has diddly squat to do with Vancouver Condo Info. Go check out Reddit.

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Combat roach

Are you now some kind of a self-appointed editor of the forum or what? Monitoring 24/7 and policing posts? Perhaps we should submit posts to you for analysis before publishing or something, I don’t know?

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Newcomer

Haven’t you noticed how much the quality of comments has improved recently? That’s mostly because people are posting about the one thing that we are all interested in, Vancouver real estate.

I’ll admit it, my work is very boring and very demanding at the moment (14 hour days), so I keep flipping over here to see if anyone has said anything interesting. And when I see something that really drags down the level of conversation, which is almost always some off-topic post about Chinese people, I comment on that.

Since we are talking about this. Why is is that you keep posting this stuff here? You know it’s unwelcome by almost everyone. Why do it?

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Combat roach

I admire your enthusiasm on getting in charge and pointing on the interest of VCI audience but you haven’t convinced me that we should ignore “Chinese factor” and its multiple influence on the local housing, neighborhood, community, city, culture and life in general of local people therefore units/places/homes that shelter them. We always need to understand the “bigger picture” in order to discuss relevant details like “5% of mortgage insurance increase and its game-changing impact on housing”, etc. If you are talking about “political correctness and racism” as preached by RE lobby, Moonbeam, Bobby-Renie, and other “developers” than it is a different story.

Check this one…

How Political Correctness Is Hurting the Poor

https://thewalrus.ca/how-political-correctness-is-hurting-the-poor/

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Donald T

He could be your mother, checking if your diaper is wet sort of thing.

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Donald T

OR SMOKE A DUBBIE TO BECOME LOCAL? what is YouR pOint?

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ostritch

Ewwwww. The tie between pig’s feet and breast milk.

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Combat roach

There’s a sucker born every minute…

B.C. housing minister says first-time home buyer program attracting applicants

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/01/16/b-c-housing-minister-says-first-time-home-buyer-program-attracting-applicants.html

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Best place on meth

Minister Fat Bastard seems quite proud of subsidizing home buyers with taxpayer money.

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No Money Down

2273 Gravely: Flip that flopped.

Purchased May 2016: $1.6M
Currently Listed $1.499M$

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Emma

Now 1 in 10 Canadian students are doing sex work to keep up with the bills. What a glorious time to be alive.

https://betterdwelling.com/1-in-10-canadian-students-are-seeking-sugar-daddies-to-help-pay-the-bills/

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Combat roach

Not too many from UBC or SFU. Guess, the majority is doing fine due to money from home…

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Emma

UBC has it’s own student mortgage program. I’m guessing the students there don’t need cash.

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Whistler or Bust?

That is complete bullshit.

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Oracle

Not really.

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Oracle

Its rampant among TFW and foreign female students from India. Employers and landlords taking advantage. Community looking the other way as they’re focussed on how high house prices can go.

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FOMO

It’s all over Yaletown restaurants and bars also. A not so secret secret.

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ostritch

It looks like there’s more slutty chicks in TO vs. Vancouver. Too bad aye?

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Best place on meth

They’re not sluts, they’re prostitutes.

Sex for cash, business arrangement.

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ostritch

Picky. Picky.

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Best place on meth

No, sluts are not picky.

They’ll give it away to anyone.

Except space889.

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Oracle

The new rules by CMHC are meant to address private sales between 2 individuals that may or may not have met via MLS. IE. mortgage fraud.

It involves selling a house at a price above the true transactional price and then the buyer gets a mortgage of 90% (when really its 100%) of sale price. Saves these CMHC premiums.

At least now audits can be done but buyers and sellers may just say down payments changed hands overseas.

It’s a farce.

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Whistler or Bust?

Like the house you were building?

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Oracle

Are you volunteering for the low IQ group? Try to refrain from publishing stupid remarks and focus on your future son. Wishful thinking won’t make it any better.

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Newcomer

Oracle admitted several times that she was lying about the house, but I still wonder why she hasn’t bought a condo in Surrey. There is just no reason that I can think of, based on her market analysis. Who knows, maybe she’s lying about living in Surrey.

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Shut It Down Already

Liars generally lie about everything.

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Oracle

Thats why a bigger increase for those putting 20% down than those putting 15% down…You’d think it would be the other way around.

But now you either give 25%+ down or they get you. Sale price out of whack with appraisal will raise a red flag and audit happens.

CMHC going to be raking in cash but at same time sales have fallen…trying to make up lost revenue?

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Newcomer

It’s a technical adjustment based on changes to capital requirements.

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Shut It Down Already

Lost revenue? You do know how insurance works don’t you Oracle? Oh wait.

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