Houses now cost one car less than a month ago.

Shopping for a house but didn’t buy yet? Now may be the time! The benchmark price of a detached home in Vancouver just dropped by $27k.  That’s just about the price of a brand new Civic, so if you buy now it’s like getting a free car!

2017civic

What will next month bring?  Is this free car premium a temporary result of snow or will you be able to upgrade to a BMW next month? Time will tell.

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[…] –Private mortgage insurer matching CMHC hikes –Housing market pits one generation against another –optimism in real estate –Future of BC housing –Vanguard says BOC will hike rates this year –The good, bad and ugly in the market […]

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

Stop spreading fear mongering. This blog has destroyed many home ownerships’ dreams.

Whistler or bust?
Guest
Whistler or bust?

Sign #21 this market is DEAD!

China’s Yuan Outflows Plummet, Showing Capital Controls Pay Off
http://bloom.bg/2iQR4dA

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Year of the chicken shits.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

These Vancouver homeowners made over $1M last year by doing nothing
http://globalnews.ca/news/3193348/vancouver-home-prices-graphs/

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“You could work as long or as hard as you can to make a living in Vancouver.”

“Or you could own a single-family home in the city and earn twice as much by basically doing nothing.”

Nice maps.

Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The article says that the strata objected for multiple reasons, but guess which one all the media outlets put in their headline? I wouldn’t want any sort of restaurant whose primary method of cooking is deep-frying underneath my window either – no matter the name.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

In just over 10 hours, Donald Trump will raise his tiny hand, take the oath of office, and assume the most powerful position in the world (after Fed Chair).

Good riddance, Obama. A real leader is here.

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Second most powerful person is Merkel.
And she’ll kick Trump’s ass.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Are you Betty DeVos by any chance?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

No, but I used to perform with Bell Biv DeVos in the 90’s.

Will you be crying your eyes out tomorrow?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

No. Will you be cheering for the racist who trivializes sexual assault? Dumb question, I guess.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

What sexual assault?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Be careful to not cross the border into the USA anytime soon. You are deemed a threat with posts like this ‘threatening’ the POTUS. Watch yourself.

The USA democratically elected a leader. And here you are trying to encourage a coup.

Specuskeptic
Member

“And here you are trying to encourage a coup.”

Insight here – now we see where you derive your “real stats” from (as opposed to those pinheads at Statscan). It’s quite the imagination/persecution complex you have there….

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Get a grip. Nobody is threatening anybody. But while you’re here, care to answer some of the questions you’ve been ignoring lately?

paulb
Member

New
149
Price Change
27
Sold
49

TI:7220

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“How a real estate developer’s efforts to silence a critic failed” Maclean’s

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/how-a-real-estate-developers-efforts-to-silence-a-critic-failed/

“Last week an Ontario judge tossed out a defamation lawsuit filed by a Goliath of the syndicated mortgage industry against a veritable David of real estate analysts.”

“The ruling didn’t attract much attention, though. Which is unfortunate, because the saga between Fortress Real Developments and independent analyst Ben Rabidoux offers a modern parable for Canada’s overheated housing market.”

Just me
Guest
Just me
I am glad Rabidoux has had his rights recognized. The SLAPP lawsuits are a trademark of dodgy bullies who don’t want the truth to be revealed (sadly, the guy being inagurated tomorrow is a big fan of SLAPP lawsuits). By the way, fat chance that legislation in favor of free speech like the one in Ontario will be introduced in BC. Sometimes I feel that BC has remained stuck in the old west, while the rest of the country has moved into the 21st century, Count the, we have – campaign contribution laws that allow those who should be controlled to pay the controllers; – vastly unregulated financial services (remember the Vancouver stock exchange scandals)? – no freedom of speech legislation like the one in the article above; – fairly lax and benevolent regulation of higly polluting industries (we need… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

These guys are the scum of the earth.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Some of you may remember Ben Rabidoux, as he would occasional post on VCI a few years ago.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

4 per cent rent hike: Median price now $1,870 for one-bedroom
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/4-per-cent-rent-hike-median-price-now-1-870-for-one-bedroom-1.3248675

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

This kind of reporting is very deceptive and harmful. Padmapper scrapes Airbnb listings, which have nothing to do with prices paid by locals.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Padmapper uses multiple sources. I wasn’t aware that airbnb was one of them, but you tend not to make things up like some other posters. It’s just a shame that Craigslist is no longer one of those sources.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yeah, I went and poked around on it.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

“Rents aren’t rising” mantra.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Well somebody has to pay. We can’t expect people scraping by in $1.5 M shacks to pay for the services they use, so it makes sense that businesses foot the bill. And if they don’t like it, too bad. We don’t really need businesses here anyway, as we are not into that whole working for money thing.

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything

Sad. But true. They are killing small business in this town

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
patriotz
Member

Facebook is banned in China. I still don’t like Zuckerberg though.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

right now it is…

Mark Zuckerberg met with China’s propaganda chief

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/21/technology/zuckerberg-china/

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
space889
Member
space889

F*cking locusts….we need to exterminate them all! Can you imagine if this were to happen in Vancouver, especially if the big one hits? OMG, these locusts will eat us alive!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-19/empty-shelves-madness-america-minor-winter-storm-drove-people-panic-buying-food-and-

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Space, you still haven’t criticized china one single time in 10,000 posts.

I’ve criticized my country hundreds of times.

You are fucked in the head my commie friend – totally brainwashed, useless and dangerous to my nation.

Get out.

Donald T
Guest
Donald T

That is in North Carolina, where only the whitest of the white cracker heads live. Please pick a better example to sell your case. gee can you read?? no wonder your are poor.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

it did happen in vancouver with the free salt give away.

but it’s a good lesson for people. have a plan and extra food and water. because when a disaster hits you will have people lining up for free shit regardless of need.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the sequel will undoubtedly feature the same cast of characters dumping all the unused salt and sand into sewer drains, ditches and into their neighbors yards in the dead of night…

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

If it was put onto the road or sidewalk it would have ended up down the drain anyway.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“OMG, these locusts will eat us alive!”

You probably know the best. In the case of a disaster that could be possible otherwise, some might end up as an ingredient in a traditional delicious meal.

http://tinyurl.com/hk8puap

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/hong-kong-and-mumbai-have-some-of-the-most-unaffordable-housing

900 square foot condo to family income ratios in selected cities:

Mumbai, Shanghai, Beijing well above 30. Sydney above 10. Vancouver around the 10 mark as well. ways to go in Vancouver…

Its all about population pressures (immigration) that the land can’t support anymore.

Don’t even ask about detached home price to income ratios in Beijing or Mumbai. In the hundreds! But keep listening to the likes of Newcomer and YVR.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I’d say the income distribution in either Mumbai or Beijing is vastly different to Vancouver or Sydney as there are huge numbers of poor and relatively few middle class. The median is therefore likely biased towards the low end, making the ratios artificially high. It’d likely be a different story if they removed the outliers – perhaps those below the poverty line who aren’t likely participants in the housing market. Just a guess.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Ratios artificially high? Hahaha.

It’s the going rate for income there. And there are going rates for house purchases.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Read again what I said, but with your brain engaged this time.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yes, that is no doubt true. It is also the case, though, that both India and China have absolutely insane housing bubbles, which are far worse than anything in Canada. And, before anyone attributes that to real demand, let’s not that the population growth rates in both countries are at historic lows.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
From the article you just posted: “And the return from rents in Mumbai, Shanghai, Beijing, and also Delhi are “remarkably low,” which could be an indicator that the valuations in those cities are “stretched.” In all four cities, gross rental yield was lower than 10 year government bond yields in 2016, unlike places such as Tokyo, Sydney, New York and Seoul. “We expect housing price increases to moderate in the coming years across Asia, with outright falls possible in some markets,” economists Tianjie He and Louis Kuijs wrote in the report. In addition to rising supply and efforts in some places to cool red-hot markets, changes in interest rates will also put downward pressure on prices. Low interest rates in the last decade have helped fuel house price growth across the world, and the rise in rates in the U.S.… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

And the other day someone said they only receiving 10% (<30,000) of annual immigrants into metro Vancouver. Same is said about Toronto (20%).

Then where is the other 70%. Hmmm Lies and Stats.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Montreal, Ottawa, the oilfields and mining areas, etc.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Oh I get it now. Face palm.

Most immigrants are going to Ottawa and Montreal and Fort macMurray.

But their stats say no. Where is everyone going.

North Pole? LMAO.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

A quick statscan search suggests almost 50% go to Toronto. But that was 2003, so I look forward to seeing your more recent – and contradictory – info.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Shut It Down Already
“A quick statscan search suggests”

Newcomer
“That is incorrect, as two minutes on Wikipedia or any other source of information”

What a pair of pricks, so condescending.

Shut your yap already, you don’t have to settle for 14 year old stats http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/2fbb56bd-eae7-4582-af7d-a197d185fc93

In 2015 there were 271K immigrants to Canada.

28K went to greater Vancouver, 82K went to greater Toronto.

That’s roughly 10% and 30%

What surprises me is that 21K and 16K went to Calgary and Edmonton.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Thanks, Meth. Good stats.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

That’s only PR, so I doubt your source will satisfy Oracle. In fact that number 271K alone is going to be enough to send him into a tailspin. But now at least we know that more end up in Edmonton and Calgary than Vancouver.

Oracle would do his self a favour by providing supporting links every once in a while. It’s not hard. Oh dear, am I being condescending again?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

But you already know people coming in Alberta PNP programs end up here in Vancouver. Nova Scotia even has a PNP program

Want true data? ICBC has year over year growth of cars on the road. You’d be surprised that every man woman or child coming here seems to buy 1.25 cars and insure them.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I forgot for a moment that you were replying to “all talk, no data” Oracle in that instance.

My apologies for the condescending comment.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Would you mind posting those stats?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Deja vu?;

“The Mortgage Market’s $1 Trillion Pocket of Worry” MSN Money

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-mortgage-markets-dollar1-trillion-pocket-of-worry/ar-AAm1hjN?li=BBnbfcN

“Bonds backed by certain risky single-family mortgages topped $1 trillion for the first time in November, crossing that threshold amid rising warnings for one corner of the housing market.”

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

China’s Largest Company Just Partnered To Sell US & Canadian Real Estate
https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-largest-company-just-partnered-sell-canadian-real-estate/

Just me
Guest
Just me

There are massive amounts of money to be made in this. That is why a company like Tencent is interested. They would not be bothered otherwise.
Anyone still doubting the size of these money outflows?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

People in power know.

Buddy had a friend work on a deal of a acquisition of a junior mining company. The appraisal of the company was $50 -75 million. Sold to a company from China which promptly paid $400 million for it.

Obviously deal was for outflows. $300 million taken out of China. Some of it will go into housing when relatives kids become ‘students’ and wives become ‘homemakers’ here.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

A friend of a friend. Sounds like a reliable source to me.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I haven’t seen anyone express doubt about the size of these money outflows. The question is how much of those outflows make it into the lower mainland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Plenty. 5 destinations are USA, UK, Canada, NZ, Australia.

Canada and Australia have the easiest ways to immigrate for entire extended family.

I’m guessing 5-10% of outflows. Billions a month.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So 100% of the cash is spent on real estate? How ever would they affford groceries and lamborghinis?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Ah, guesswork. It’s so fast and easy! It’s a wonder that anyone bothers with anything else.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Show me data that says the educated ‘guesswork’ is wrong.

Show me the data??

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It was an uneducated guess.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That’s not how proof works. That’s like saying, “Prove that leprechauns don’t exist.” It can’t be done. But nobody thinks that means leprechauns do exist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logic

patriotz
Member

From the previous thread, but I think it’s important:

Your argument is akin to saying that we cannot prove climate change without modifying the behaviour of the world’s population then waiting for a bit to see what happens.

Climate change is a fact. We can measure temperature, rainfall, storm frequency, etc. and we know they are changing. A theory is an explanation for observed facts. It’s a theory that human activity is responsible for climate change. I think it’s correct, but it’s not proven in the sense that Pythagoras’ Theorem is proven.

Likewise Vancouver RE market stats are facts. Just what factors are responsible for prices is a theory. Unfortunately, you can’t perform experiments varying the factors.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It’s “just a theory” like gravity is. Theory has a specific definition in science, but you’re confusing it with the layman’s definition.

But in the context of the argument you’re making it’s a distinction without a difference. We can be just as confident in the causes of Van RE prices as we can climate change without needing to tweak any of the parameters.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Nothing is a fact. Even scientific experiments have 95% confidence limits. Meaning only considered fact when can be wrong up to 5 times out of 100.

MLS watch
Guest
MLS watch

Nothing is a fact? What about death and taxes.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Gravity?

Nah, it’s totally rigged.

Just me
Guest
Just me
YVR
Guest
YVR

Wow that was quick. A fee hours ago you said it had stopped.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Have you read the article at all?
The Chinese government has reduced the outflows, but the underlying pressure remains.
For reasons I don’t understand you seem to hate the very idea that foreigners have anything to do with prices in Vancouver. Even if the evidence was right before you, you would ignore it.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

Dave (from previous post)
I don’t think these prices drops have much meaning at this point. Prices are moving on very thin volume. If listings don’t pick up significantly, prices will not fall very much.

Your reasoning sounded fairly sound, Dave, but apparently it didn’t ring true last year. I think that you can start to be a little more bearish.

“As an example, the peak of the market was in March 2016. Despite (at the time) record low inventories, we set a record number of sales. Just see the charts below.”
http://vancitycondoguide.com/are-we-in-denial/

Dave
Member
Thank you. That’s a good response and you’ve changed my opinion on this a bit. The key number in all that data is the end of the year inventory is second highest in the last 10 years. That’s a positive sign for bears. But, I still maintain my overall point in that I believe we need to see record inventory for there to be a substantial correction. It’s true that prices corrected a little bit this past Fall on low inventory, so it’s not impossible for that to happen this year too. I just don’t think that will be the case though. I believe that significant price corrections will require a lot of inventory. And I believe that a flood of inventory will require something significant to happen (e.g. economic downturn, higher interest rates, new Provincial government). Anecdotally, I hear… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I agree that the market is frozen.

As for significant changes, it may not be possible to tell the difference between lower prices and an economic downturn. Either one would cause the other. For example, with volumes down, as they currently are, the flow of money has been greatly decreased. This will impact the economy, possibly by enough to be seen as a trigger for price drops.

Conversely, if prices were to rise, people would start buying again, which would support the economy, and provide an explanation for the increases in prices.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

On the US:

“Mortgage-Rate Rise Hits Coastal Property Markets Hardest”, Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rate-rise-hits-coastal-property-markets-hardest-1484755945

“Pricey real-estate markets on the coasts are bearing the brunt of the recent rise in mortgage rates and are likely to feel more pain as rates climb, housing economists say.”

“The average rate for a 30-year mortgage has risen to 4.12% from 3.5% before the election in November.”

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

This blog is soo boring.
What about some old fashioned racism.
Meth guy, get it going.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Yellen: Expect Fed to gradually hike rates over next 3 years”, CFJC Kamloops

http://cfjctoday.com/article/556140/yellen-says-fed-close-achieving-its-economic-goals

“Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen says she expects the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate several times a year through 2019, as it moves closer toward to its economic goals of maximum employment and stable inflation.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s largest private mortgage default insurer is matching CMHC’s premium hikes”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/largest-private-mortgage-default-insurer-is-matching-cmhc-premium-hikes

“Genworth Canada said late Tuesday that it would be increasing its transactional mortgage insurance premium rates for homebuyers, essentially duplicating the increases brought in by CMHC.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Bank mergers, housing and marijuana: Kevin O’Leary on his leadership bid”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/bank-mergers-housing-and-marijuana-kevin-o-leary-on-his-leadership-bid-1.652967

On Canadian housing intervention:
“The policies we’re putting in place are regional in nature, and don’t take into account that we have very low interest rates, people want to own homes. Why mess with them? Why not let the market be the market, including the volatility in pricing?”

On CMHC:
“We have to strip away all the tinkering on policy on housing. The market will be the market, and it’s able to sustain some volatility.”

patriotz
Member
patriotz
Member

Translation: I think that CMHC and Federal policies that inflate housing prices are just fine and I won’t change them.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I think it’s a bit more nuanced than that. I think the message also includes, “I think the people watching this are uneducated morons who are happy to be lied to.”

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

wow… obviously wrong.

whoever is paying you to shill isn’t getting their money’s worth.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

From this comment I can tell: a) you are angry; b) you don’t like whoever you imagine patriotz to be; c) you are trying to be insulting by suggesting he is paid (or you actually believe that people are paid to post on VCI). I cannot, however, tell what you think the quotes mean.

It would be more interesting to know you think about the quotes than to be reminded, yet again, about what you think of whoever you imagine patriotz to be.

Just me
Guest
Just me

My reading of what O’Leary said is exactly the same as Patriotz’s. I think that is exactly what he was saying.
What is your reading of what he said?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“BC’s housing market pitting one generation against the other”, News 1130

http://www.news1130.com/2017/01/18/bcs-housing-market-pitting-one-generation/

“So, we have a tale of two British Columbia’s. On one side, we have the British Columbia where the housing lottery winners deserve to be shielded from the challenge of facing life without a $570 annual subsidy. On the other side, we have the entitled Millennials of British Columbia, Millennials who must lower their expectations in the face of wage stagnation and housing cost inflation.”

patriotz
Member

Wanting the government to stop waging economic warfare on you is not being “entitled”.

Ulsterman
Member

“Millennials who must lower their expectations in the face of wage stagnation and housing cost inflation.”

Lower their expectations! It sounds like they have to lower them from hardwood floors to laminate. No it is from owning an average house in which to raise a family (kinda important to sustain the population of the city) and either raise a family in a crap rental house with no security of tenancy, or give up on a family and just buy an overpriced condo.

It’s almost as bad as listening to boomers exclaiming “In my day houses were expensive too!”

Just me
Guest
Just me

This is the best commnetary i have read in a long time. I fully agree with almost every single line. And I am not even a millennial….

Just me
Guest
Just me

Some good news on the horizon?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/china-s-remaining-weapons-in-capital-outflow-fight-bitcoin-art

How sad that we have to rely on a dictatirial regime to restrict illegal flows. We just pretended not to understand and pocketed the money. How many baby boomers got rich this way?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So who exactly should be enforcing China’s laws if not China?

Just me
Guest
Just me

China is enforcing its laws.
Is Canada enforcing its laws? Money laundering laws anyone?
We have the laws, but they don’t seem to count. We have become like a banana republic.

Another example: declaring world income. Don’t even get me started…

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I thought you were talking about outflow from China?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Ok, ket me explain how it works.

You take a massive bribe in china, you exchange it into dollars, you move it to yor country of choice, you go to a bank, you leverage the money, you buy real estate.

How many laws dud you break ( conservative estimate):
1. You acquired that money illegally in the home country.
2. You moved the money illegally from the home country.
3. You moved the money illegally into the host country.
4. You misrepresented the origin of said miney to the hist bank, making up stories ti get a mortgage.
5. All of the abive suggest you are a money launderer.

Warning: the actual number if crimes and infractions may be lower or higher, depending on the specific case.

This is why we have becone a banana republic . We condone all this.

patriotz
Member

So you’re saying that in fact China isn’t enforcing its laws.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Until recently, not so much.
Lately, a bit more.

Canada? Not at all. Christy would sell herself and all of us to the highest bidder.