Houses now cost one car less than a month ago.

Shopping for a house but didn’t buy yet? Now may be the time! The benchmark price of a detached home in Vancouver just dropped by $27k.  That’s just about the price of a brand new Civic, so if you buy now it’s like getting a free car!

2017civic

What will next month bring?  Is this free car premium a temporary result of snow or will you be able to upgrade to a BMW next month? Time will tell.

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Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
@Just me offered some interesting data in the last thread. I like where you’re going with this Just me. Let me help you out a bit with some data I dug up. Btw before I get yelled at, I’m not arguing that foreign money is a major component of our price problems. I merely want to show that it can be a big enough component that we should care about it. The CREA announced that in 2016 a total of $77.6B of residential real estate was sold (source http://www.rew.ca/news/bc-and-canada-smash-records-for-home-sales-and-prices-in-2016-reports-1.7540188) 2015 saw sales of about $64B. We know for a fact that foreign buyers accounted for up to 20%, and at least 10% of real estate in a 5 week period during summer 2016. Let’s use your figure of $25B extra credit but attribute it to all of BC instead of… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me
“I think regardless of the lack of data, its interesting to note that total new credit extended to Canadians is a drop in the bucket compared to estimated outflows from China. Even a small fraction can have significant distortion on our market. 0.5%: $6B, or around 8% of our total BC 2016 real estate sales 1%: $13B, or around 16% of our total BC 2016 real estate sales 2%: $26B, or around 32% of our total BC 2016 real estate sales There’s no analysis intended here, just an attempt to show some numbers. It’s foolish to assume 0% of foreign outflows from China made its way here to Vancouver. ” Thanks BR. I think you are much more eloquent than I am, and some of your arguments are exactly what I meant. As you wrote above, the main point here… Read more »
Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
I think we’re both on the same page with this, but I do want to caution that foreign money is probably the hardest for us to control, so I do believe that improving housing costs will have to come in the form of making it harder for locals to buy and doing what we can to reduce all speculation and storing of wealth in homes, regardless of source of money. I know some people who believe strongly in the foreign money effect will argue that foreign money will then buy up everything, but I don’t think that’s the case. If the policies being announced throughout 2016 are well enforced in 2017, and if prices are cooling for a longer period, we’re going to see (IMO) a substantive reduction in foreign money involvement. Those policies are: – the City effectively reducing… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me
I agree. It seems clear though that the millionaire migrants we are talking about will not be subject to the CMHC constraints, as they will always be able to bring more than 20% of the value. I would suggest the following very easy fixes: 1 – require banks to charge a risk-premium (significant one) on mortgages by non-residents or by residents who do not have proof of any income, even if they bring a lot of wealth to the transaction. There is a difference between income and wealth. We should not launder money! 2 – make the carrying costs higher: this means higher property taxes. Perhaps a way to go is to make property taxes more progressive. The marginal property tax rate on a 20 million dollar home should be higher than that on a 1.5 million dwelling. If someone… Read more »
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

These are all good proposals. These would require well organized, empowered, brave and uncorrupted teams to enforce it in order to succeed in fighting locusts, scumbags and their allies. Almost the same as Eliot Ness and police department confronted organized crime in Chicago, 80 years ago.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“These would require well organized, empowered, brave and uncorrupted teams to enforce it”

We have a communist chinese mayor and a communist chinese PM, not to mention a thoroughly corrupt premiere who dresses in every ethnic costume on earth so we’re not even sure where she’s from .

Getting these things done seems like a longshot.

YVR
Guest
YVR

If a Lamborghini-driving”UBC student” brings in 5 millions from China and borrows 15 million to buy a home on the endowment lands, should that simply be counted as “local credit”?

Of course it is. Without the local banks lending at a ridiculously cheap rate with no income verification they couldn’t buy the house. Same as the local with $500k down who buys the $2M house. The $5 million brought in is less of an issue than the credit in this case.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Play dumb if you want. But my point is simple: this is not an over-extended local. And it might account for a much larger share of total borrowing.

of course it is credit. But not of the type I keep reading of this blog. More to the point: this is not a poor over-extended local family mortgaging its future; this is a business person that is trying to make some easy dough on Vancouver RE.
The two types might look similar to you, but they are not the same in my eyes.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

There are lots of numbers between 0% and 1%, you know?

And of course, we’ll know exactly how much revenue the foreign buyers tax has brought in.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Based on the implmentation of similar taxes elsewhere (HK) I reserve the right to doubt that all people who should pay it actually do. In HK it is clear that money flows where unabated, but official buyers were classified as locals.

Origin if the money and name on the title are not the same thing.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Christine Duhaime: $2,000,000,000,000 in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, Australia, Canada and Netherlands.
http://www.antimoneylaunderinglaw.com/2017/01/qa-on-the-2-trillion-in-proceeds-of-corruption-removed-from-china-and-taken-to-us-australia-canada-and-netherlands.html
It’s China.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Wow.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Don’t tell the HAM deniers.

Alice
Guest
Alice

That total was all capital outflows, not explicitly the proceeds of crimes. Pretty sure she’s wrong. That capital also went to Europe, Africa (where Chinese investment is soaring), etc. Not saying it’s not a problem, but even 10% of that would be the size of all real estate sales last year in the whole country – it doesn’t make sense.

realist
Member
realist

“I’m not arguing that foreign money is a major component of our price problems.”
You’re not? Then you don’t have much of an argument, at least in Vancouver West and West Van. Unless you wish to argue that foreign money in Vancouver West and West Van is the only component…that is more plausible.

Ulsterman
Member
I don’t think it matters whether the split between foreign / domestic money is 10/90, 15/85, or 20/80. I think the significant factor is psychological. Foreign Chinese money is like a steroid injection into our market – the catalyst that emboldens local buyers and specuvestors. If all foreign money was stopped tomorrow, locals earning local wages would very soon lose the confidence to borrow to the max to buy homes. Just the thought of “ooh, ooh, all this foreign money is pouring into Vancouver and because they’re so rich they’re unaffected by local conditions so prices will never REALLY go down” just keeps this market from really collapsing. I’m hoping that enough foreign cash has found more attractive and lower risk markets elsewhere and there will be the slow-but-steady drift down in prices. Hopefully we get to a psychological breaking… Read more »
patriotz
Member

You stop foreign money from going into RE by levying taxes that make high priced RE (relative to the buyer’s declared income) a bad investment though high taxation.

You cannot target “foreign money” per se because it’s impossible in an open economy like Canada’s.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Ulsterman, you are delusional. There is a large amount of foreign money in Vancouver. These flows are very real and will continue unless we stop them in some way.

Ulsterman
Member

Just Me, i think your having trouble comprehending what i wrote – i don’t say it wasn’t a significant sum of money. I said it doesn’t matter the specific split. Whether it’s 5% or 20%, it’s the psychological boost this given domestic buyers to continue the real estate mania.

I’m intrigued. Do you have well-researched research show the dollar amount of real estate transactions buy foreigners being far in excess of 20%. Mine is just an example percentage, but your “delusional” statement makes me think you think my example is too low by several orders of magnitude. What’s your number?

squeak
Member
squeak

But there is one thing: lacking of data of who is buying and where they got their money from. By compliments of the Government.
Begs the question: Why is not such valuable data collected?

Lack of transparency : where there is smoke there is a fire.
It takes more work to hide, mislead, not being transparent than to be plain honest. Which makes one ask why would you want more work?

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
189
Price Change
23
Sold
86

TI:7160

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

The only way to stop the illicit money from China is to BAN all Chinese from coming to Canada from the PRC. Obviously that won’t happen, so we will not stop the flows.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Everybody knows it is the only solution but rather playing dumb and misinformed while selling the country to the scummiest bidder.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

All PRC rodents should have been banned from immigrating here immediately after this happened.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/how-a-b-c-man-pulled-off-one-of-the-most-sophisticated-immigration-frauds-in-canadian-history

Fraud is all they know in that corrupt shithole.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
You loose a lot of respect when you talk about all people in a group based on the action of individuals. Do you have difficulty understanding the difference between a group and individuals, or are you knowingly grouping people together because it makes you feel good? You’re a smart guy, so I cannot imagine that you are just confused incapable of grasping why it is wrong to take this approach. I think you are doing it, even though you know it is wrong, because it feels good, very much like a kid peeing in the pool. You must recognize that there is no real difference between your words and the words of, for example, the KKK or antisemites. That kind of approach causes hate and suffering for all, including yourself and those who you love. You are a grown man.… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Why are you incapable of realizing that this is not a case of a “few bad apples”, that this is systemic in that country?

There is a culture of corruption throughout their entire society and I don’t want them here, period.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

By the way, the KKK are white supremacists. All they care about is skin colour.

You’re awfully stupid to be bringing this up, you have no credibility.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That is incorrect, as two minutes on Wikipedia or any other source of information on the KKK would have told you. The KKK is also anti-Catholic, anti-Jewish and anti-immigration.

I find it very hard to distinguish between what you write and what a member of the KKK would write. To be clear, your behavior is evil. You will be happier if you do less evil. That’s just how life works.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

We’re all tired of your sermons.

Shut the fuck up.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I’m sorry for the inconvenience, but to turn a blind eye while some does something evil is a great wrong. If you keep your comments with in the very outer bounds of reasonable discourse, I will go back to bugging Oracle about her condo.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

This is not a classroom, it’s not a re-education camp, it’s not the Church of Newcomer.

You do not get to tell everyone how to behave or how to think.

You do not get to tell people how bad they are because you don’t like their opinions.

We’re all bored of your tedious preaching.

Shut the fuck up.

Seriously, shut the fuck up.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

If you do not want to be called out for being evil, just stop.

Comment about real estate. You are good at that. Why spoil it?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

So you actually believe, in your heart of hearts, that everyone in China is bad?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

No idiot. I said the corruption is systemic, widespread and rampant.

That doesn not mean “everyone” is bad.

You’re beginning to sound as stupid as space.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

So, when you say, “All PRC rodents should have been banned from immigrating ,” what do you mean by that? My understanding is that you mean all people in or from the PCR should be banned (because they are bad) and you mean that all people in or from the PCR are subhuman (rodents).

Is that what you meant, or did you mean something different?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

See my previous comment re: shut the fuck up.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

On the principle of silence being assent, I am going to take it that you agree that you said, in that instance, that everyone in China was subhuman.

I don’t believe you think that is OK.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

We’re done.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Prices have dropped FAR more than 27 K as that phoney-baloney “benchmark price” lags at least 6 months behind what is truly going on price-wise.

Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It was posted 2 hours ago ffs.

history
Guest
history
Just me
Guest
Just me

The more people claim that HAM has nothing to do with our local hiusing crisis, the more evidence to the contrary seems to pop up.

It reminds me of Crooked Christy and her faithful servant DeJong. The also used to claim that HAM was nit real. Until they had to finally admit it was.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

False. The numbers demonstrate it’s a small fraction of the overall market. Why ignore the available data? Because it doesn’t suit you to believe it?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Report data. Discuss data quality. Convince people.
Burden of propf goes both ways.
Provincial figures are easily swindled. High end is all anonymous lately.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So you’ll simply make up your own data then?

Just me
Guest
Just me

No. I will use the best data I can find and use judgement based on that.
I sadly have little or no trust in the current BC government. I consider Christy Clark a bare faced liar.

If you trust her, knock,yourself out.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

So you are just guessing. That’s fine, but boring. Once we’ve heard your guess once, why repeat it. We get that, based on your seat-of-the-pants sense of things, you believe that an overwhelming amount of RE in Vancouver is bought by people from China. You have made it clear that you do not trust any data that proves you wrong. What else is there to say?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Where’s the data that local PR from China aren’t bringing in loads of foreign money illegally?

Where’s that data?

Two can play that game.

Next.

specuskeptic
Member

Onus/burden of proof is on the advocate. Thanks for playing… NEXT!

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

These stooges here to try to confuse you.

Foreign money at root of problem and being brought in by locals from china already here on PR.

These Permenent Residents from China will stop at nothing. Including trying to deceive Canadians in blogs.

Ulsterman
Member

I agree that it’s a small percentage of the money spent on housing here, but the psychological lift it gives to locals is enormous. “Everyone wants to live here!” “The wealthy foreigners all want to move here – they’ll always be buyers!”

Just me
Guest
Just me

Some good news on the horizon?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/china-s-remaining-weapons-in-capital-outflow-fight-bitcoin-art

How sad that we have to rely on a dictatirial regime to restrict illegal flows. We just pretended not to understand and pocketed the money. How many baby boomers got rich this way?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So who exactly should be enforcing China’s laws if not China?

Just me
Guest
Just me

China is enforcing its laws.
Is Canada enforcing its laws? Money laundering laws anyone?
We have the laws, but they don’t seem to count. We have become like a banana republic.

Another example: declaring world income. Don’t even get me started…

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I thought you were talking about outflow from China?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Ok, ket me explain how it works.

You take a massive bribe in china, you exchange it into dollars, you move it to yor country of choice, you go to a bank, you leverage the money, you buy real estate.

How many laws dud you break ( conservative estimate):
1. You acquired that money illegally in the home country.
2. You moved the money illegally from the home country.
3. You moved the money illegally into the host country.
4. You misrepresented the origin of said miney to the hist bank, making up stories ti get a mortgage.
5. All of the abive suggest you are a money launderer.

Warning: the actual number if crimes and infractions may be lower or higher, depending on the specific case.

This is why we have becone a banana republic . We condone all this.

patriotz
Member

So you’re saying that in fact China isn’t enforcing its laws.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Until recently, not so much.
Lately, a bit more.

Canada? Not at all. Christy would sell herself and all of us to the highest bidder.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“BC’s housing market pitting one generation against the other”, News 1130

http://www.news1130.com/2017/01/18/bcs-housing-market-pitting-one-generation/

“So, we have a tale of two British Columbia’s. On one side, we have the British Columbia where the housing lottery winners deserve to be shielded from the challenge of facing life without a $570 annual subsidy. On the other side, we have the entitled Millennials of British Columbia, Millennials who must lower their expectations in the face of wage stagnation and housing cost inflation.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

This is the best commnetary i have read in a long time. I fully agree with almost every single line. And I am not even a millennial….

Ulsterman
Member

“Millennials who must lower their expectations in the face of wage stagnation and housing cost inflation.”

Lower their expectations! It sounds like they have to lower them from hardwood floors to laminate. No it is from owning an average house in which to raise a family (kinda important to sustain the population of the city) and either raise a family in a crap rental house with no security of tenancy, or give up on a family and just buy an overpriced condo.

It’s almost as bad as listening to boomers exclaiming “In my day houses were expensive too!”

patriotz
Member

Wanting the government to stop waging economic warfare on you is not being “entitled”.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Bank mergers, housing and marijuana: Kevin O’Leary on his leadership bid”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/bank-mergers-housing-and-marijuana-kevin-o-leary-on-his-leadership-bid-1.652967

On Canadian housing intervention:
“The policies we’re putting in place are regional in nature, and don’t take into account that we have very low interest rates, people want to own homes. Why mess with them? Why not let the market be the market, including the volatility in pricing?”

On CMHC:
“We have to strip away all the tinkering on policy on housing. The market will be the market, and it’s able to sustain some volatility.”

patriotz
Member

Translation: I think that CMHC and Federal policies that inflate housing prices are just fine and I won’t change them.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

wow… obviously wrong.

whoever is paying you to shill isn’t getting their money’s worth.

Just me
Guest
Just me

My reading of what O’Leary said is exactly the same as Patriotz’s. I think that is exactly what he was saying.
What is your reading of what he said?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

From this comment I can tell: a) you are angry; b) you don’t like whoever you imagine patriotz to be; c) you are trying to be insulting by suggesting he is paid (or you actually believe that people are paid to post on VCI). I cannot, however, tell what you think the quotes mean.

It would be more interesting to know you think about the quotes than to be reminded, yet again, about what you think of whoever you imagine patriotz to be.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I think it’s a bit more nuanced than that. I think the message also includes, “I think the people watching this are uneducated morons who are happy to be lied to.”

patriotz
Member
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Canada’s largest private mortgage default insurer is matching CMHC’s premium hikes”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/largest-private-mortgage-default-insurer-is-matching-cmhc-premium-hikes

“Genworth Canada said late Tuesday that it would be increasing its transactional mortgage insurance premium rates for homebuyers, essentially duplicating the increases brought in by CMHC.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Yellen: Expect Fed to gradually hike rates over next 3 years”, CFJC Kamloops

http://cfjctoday.com/article/556140/yellen-says-fed-close-achieving-its-economic-goals

“Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen says she expects the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate several times a year through 2019, as it moves closer toward to its economic goals of maximum employment and stable inflation.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

On the US:

“Mortgage-Rate Rise Hits Coastal Property Markets Hardest”, Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rate-rise-hits-coastal-property-markets-hardest-1484755945

“Pricey real-estate markets on the coasts are bearing the brunt of the recent rise in mortgage rates and are likely to feel more pain as rates climb, housing economists say.”

“The average rate for a 30-year mortgage has risen to 4.12% from 3.5% before the election in November.”

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

This blog is soo boring.
What about some old fashioned racism.
Meth guy, get it going.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

Dave (from previous post)
I don’t think these prices drops have much meaning at this point. Prices are moving on very thin volume. If listings don’t pick up significantly, prices will not fall very much.

Your reasoning sounded fairly sound, Dave, but apparently it didn’t ring true last year. I think that you can start to be a little more bearish.

“As an example, the peak of the market was in March 2016. Despite (at the time) record low inventories, we set a record number of sales. Just see the charts below.”
http://vancitycondoguide.com/are-we-in-denial/

Dave
Member
Thank you. That’s a good response and you’ve changed my opinion on this a bit. The key number in all that data is the end of the year inventory is second highest in the last 10 years. That’s a positive sign for bears. But, I still maintain my overall point in that I believe we need to see record inventory for there to be a substantial correction. It’s true that prices corrected a little bit this past Fall on low inventory, so it’s not impossible for that to happen this year too. I just don’t think that will be the case though. I believe that significant price corrections will require a lot of inventory. And I believe that a flood of inventory will require something significant to happen (e.g. economic downturn, higher interest rates, new Provincial government). Anecdotally, I hear… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I agree that the market is frozen.

As for significant changes, it may not be possible to tell the difference between lower prices and an economic downturn. Either one would cause the other. For example, with volumes down, as they currently are, the flow of money has been greatly decreased. This will impact the economy, possibly by enough to be seen as a trigger for price drops.

Conversely, if prices were to rise, people would start buying again, which would support the economy, and provide an explanation for the increases in prices.

Just me
Guest
Just me
YVR
Guest
YVR

Wow that was quick. A fee hours ago you said it had stopped.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Have you read the article at all?
The Chinese government has reduced the outflows, but the underlying pressure remains.
For reasons I don’t understand you seem to hate the very idea that foreigners have anything to do with prices in Vancouver. Even if the evidence was right before you, you would ignore it.

patriotz
Member

From the previous thread, but I think it’s important:

Your argument is akin to saying that we cannot prove climate change without modifying the behaviour of the world’s population then waiting for a bit to see what happens.

Climate change is a fact. We can measure temperature, rainfall, storm frequency, etc. and we know they are changing. A theory is an explanation for observed facts. It’s a theory that human activity is responsible for climate change. I think it’s correct, but it’s not proven in the sense that Pythagoras’ Theorem is proven.

Likewise Vancouver RE market stats are facts. Just what factors are responsible for prices is a theory. Unfortunately, you can’t perform experiments varying the factors.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Nothing is a fact. Even scientific experiments have 95% confidence limits. Meaning only considered fact when can be wrong up to 5 times out of 100.

MLS watch
Guest
MLS watch

Nothing is a fact? What about death and taxes.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Gravity?

Nah, it’s totally rigged.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It’s “just a theory” like gravity is. Theory has a specific definition in science, but you’re confusing it with the layman’s definition.

But in the context of the argument you’re making it’s a distinction without a difference. We can be just as confident in the causes of Van RE prices as we can climate change without needing to tweak any of the parameters.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

China’s Largest Company Just Partnered To Sell US & Canadian Real Estate
https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-largest-company-just-partnered-sell-canadian-real-estate/

Just me
Guest
Just me

There are massive amounts of money to be made in this. That is why a company like Tencent is interested. They would not be bothered otherwise.
Anyone still doubting the size of these money outflows?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I haven’t seen anyone express doubt about the size of these money outflows. The question is how much of those outflows make it into the lower mainland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Plenty. 5 destinations are USA, UK, Canada, NZ, Australia.

Canada and Australia have the easiest ways to immigrate for entire extended family.

I’m guessing 5-10% of outflows. Billions a month.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Ah, guesswork. It’s so fast and easy! It’s a wonder that anyone bothers with anything else.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Show me data that says the educated ‘guesswork’ is wrong.

Show me the data??

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That’s not how proof works. That’s like saying, “Prove that leprechauns don’t exist.” It can’t be done. But nobody thinks that means leprechauns do exist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logic

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It was an uneducated guess.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So 100% of the cash is spent on real estate? How ever would they affford groceries and lamborghinis?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

People in power know.

Buddy had a friend work on a deal of a acquisition of a junior mining company. The appraisal of the company was $50 -75 million. Sold to a company from China which promptly paid $400 million for it.

Obviously deal was for outflows. $300 million taken out of China. Some of it will go into housing when relatives kids become ‘students’ and wives become ‘homemakers’ here.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

A friend of a friend. Sounds like a reliable source to me.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

Deja vu?;

“The Mortgage Market’s $1 Trillion Pocket of Worry” MSN Money

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-mortgage-markets-dollar1-trillion-pocket-of-worry/ar-AAm1hjN?li=BBnbfcN

“Bonds backed by certain risky single-family mortgages topped $1 trillion for the first time in November, crossing that threshold amid rising warnings for one corner of the housing market.”

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/hong-kong-and-mumbai-have-some-of-the-most-unaffordable-housing

900 square foot condo to family income ratios in selected cities:

Mumbai, Shanghai, Beijing well above 30. Sydney above 10. Vancouver around the 10 mark as well. ways to go in Vancouver…

Its all about population pressures (immigration) that the land can’t support anymore.

Don’t even ask about detached home price to income ratios in Beijing or Mumbai. In the hundreds! But keep listening to the likes of Newcomer and YVR.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

And the other day someone said they only receiving 10% (<30,000) of annual immigrants into metro Vancouver. Same is said about Toronto (20%).

Then where is the other 70%. Hmmm Lies and Stats.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Montreal, Ottawa, the oilfields and mining areas, etc.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Oh I get it now. Face palm.

Most immigrants are going to Ottawa and Montreal and Fort macMurray.

But their stats say no. Where is everyone going.

North Pole? LMAO.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Would you mind posting those stats?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

A quick statscan search suggests almost 50% go to Toronto. But that was 2003, so I look forward to seeing your more recent – and contradictory – info.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Shut It Down Already
“A quick statscan search suggests”

Newcomer
“That is incorrect, as two minutes on Wikipedia or any other source of information”

What a pair of pricks, so condescending.

Shut your yap already, you don’t have to settle for 14 year old stats http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/2fbb56bd-eae7-4582-af7d-a197d185fc93

In 2015 there were 271K immigrants to Canada.

28K went to greater Vancouver, 82K went to greater Toronto.

That’s roughly 10% and 30%

What surprises me is that 21K and 16K went to Calgary and Edmonton.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

That’s only PR, so I doubt your source will satisfy Oracle. In fact that number 271K alone is going to be enough to send him into a tailspin. But now at least we know that more end up in Edmonton and Calgary than Vancouver.

Oracle would do his self a favour by providing supporting links every once in a while. It’s not hard. Oh dear, am I being condescending again?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I forgot for a moment that you were replying to “all talk, no data” Oracle in that instance.

My apologies for the condescending comment.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

But you already know people coming in Alberta PNP programs end up here in Vancouver. Nova Scotia even has a PNP program

Want true data? ICBC has year over year growth of cars on the road. You’d be surprised that every man woman or child coming here seems to buy 1.25 cars and insure them.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Thanks, Meth. Good stats.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
From the article you just posted: “And the return from rents in Mumbai, Shanghai, Beijing, and also Delhi are “remarkably low,” which could be an indicator that the valuations in those cities are “stretched.” In all four cities, gross rental yield was lower than 10 year government bond yields in 2016, unlike places such as Tokyo, Sydney, New York and Seoul. “We expect housing price increases to moderate in the coming years across Asia, with outright falls possible in some markets,” economists Tianjie He and Louis Kuijs wrote in the report. In addition to rising supply and efforts in some places to cool red-hot markets, changes in interest rates will also put downward pressure on prices. Low interest rates in the last decade have helped fuel house price growth across the world, and the rise in rates in the U.S.… Read more »
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I’d say the income distribution in either Mumbai or Beijing is vastly different to Vancouver or Sydney as there are huge numbers of poor and relatively few middle class. The median is therefore likely biased towards the low end, making the ratios artificially high. It’d likely be a different story if they removed the outliers – perhaps those below the poverty line who aren’t likely participants in the housing market. Just a guess.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yes, that is no doubt true. It is also the case, though, that both India and China have absolutely insane housing bubbles, which are far worse than anything in Canada. And, before anyone attributes that to real demand, let’s not that the population growth rates in both countries are at historic lows.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Ratios artificially high? Hahaha.

It’s the going rate for income there. And there are going rates for house purchases.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Read again what I said, but with your brain engaged this time.

space889
Member
space889

F*cking locusts….we need to exterminate them all! Can you imagine if this were to happen in Vancouver, especially if the big one hits? OMG, these locusts will eat us alive!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-19/empty-shelves-madness-america-minor-winter-storm-drove-people-panic-buying-food-and-

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“OMG, these locusts will eat us alive!”

You probably know the best. In the case of a disaster that could be possible otherwise, some might end up as an ingredient in a traditional delicious meal.

http://tinyurl.com/hk8puap

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

it did happen in vancouver with the free salt give away.

but it’s a good lesson for people. have a plan and extra food and water. because when a disaster hits you will have people lining up for free shit regardless of need.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

the sequel will undoubtedly feature the same cast of characters dumping all the unused salt and sand into sewer drains, ditches and into their neighbors yards in the dead of night…

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

If it was put onto the road or sidewalk it would have ended up down the drain anyway.

Donald T
Guest
Donald T

That is in North Carolina, where only the whitest of the white cracker heads live. Please pick a better example to sell your case. gee can you read?? no wonder your are poor.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Space, you still haven’t criticized china one single time in 10,000 posts.

I’ve criticized my country hundreds of times.

You are fucked in the head my commie friend – totally brainwashed, useless and dangerous to my nation.

Get out.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
patriotz
Member

Facebook is banned in China. I still don’t like Zuckerberg though.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

right now it is…

Mark Zuckerberg met with China’s propaganda chief

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/21/technology/zuckerberg-china/

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Well somebody has to pay. We can’t expect people scraping by in $1.5 M shacks to pay for the services they use, so it makes sense that businesses foot the bill. And if they don’t like it, too bad. We don’t really need businesses here anyway, as we are not into that whole working for money thing.

Chinabuyeverything
Guest
Chinabuyeverything

Sad. But true. They are killing small business in this town

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

4 per cent rent hike: Median price now $1,870 for one-bedroom
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/4-per-cent-rent-hike-median-price-now-1-870-for-one-bedroom-1.3248675

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

This kind of reporting is very deceptive and harmful. Padmapper scrapes Airbnb listings, which have nothing to do with prices paid by locals.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

“Rents aren’t rising” mantra.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Padmapper uses multiple sources. I wasn’t aware that airbnb was one of them, but you tend not to make things up like some other posters. It’s just a shame that Craigslist is no longer one of those sources.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yeah, I went and poked around on it.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
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