Houses now cost one car less than a month ago.

Shopping for a house but didn’t buy yet? Now may be the time! The benchmark price of a detached home in Vancouver just dropped by $27k.  That’s just about the price of a brand new Civic, so if you buy now it’s like getting a free car!

2017civic

What will next month bring?  Is this free car premium a temporary result of snow or will you be able to upgrade to a BMW next month? Time will tell.

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Just me
Guest
Just me

The more people claim that HAM has nothing to do with our local hiusing crisis, the more evidence to the contrary seems to pop up.

It reminds me of Crooked Christy and her faithful servant DeJong. The also used to claim that HAM was nit real. Until they had to finally admit it was.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

False. The numbers demonstrate it’s a small fraction of the overall market. Why ignore the available data? Because it doesn’t suit you to believe it?

Ulsterman
Member

I agree that it’s a small percentage of the money spent on housing here, but the psychological lift it gives to locals is enormous. “Everyone wants to live here!” “The wealthy foreigners all want to move here – they’ll always be buyers!”

Just me
Guest
Just me

Report data. Discuss data quality. Convince people.
Burden of propf goes both ways.
Provincial figures are easily swindled. High end is all anonymous lately.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

These stooges here to try to confuse you.

Foreign money at root of problem and being brought in by locals from china already here on PR.

These Permenent Residents from China will stop at nothing. Including trying to deceive Canadians in blogs.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

So you’ll simply make up your own data then?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Where’s the data that local PR from China aren’t bringing in loads of foreign money illegally?

Where’s that data?

Two can play that game.

Next.

Specuskeptic
Member

Onus/burden of proof is on the advocate. Thanks for playing… NEXT!

Just me
Guest
Just me

No. I will use the best data I can find and use judgement based on that.
I sadly have little or no trust in the current BC government. I consider Christy Clark a bare faced liar.

If you trust her, knock,yourself out.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

So you are just guessing. That’s fine, but boring. Once we’ve heard your guess once, why repeat it. We get that, based on your seat-of-the-pants sense of things, you believe that an overwhelming amount of RE in Vancouver is bought by people from China. You have made it clear that you do not trust any data that proves you wrong. What else is there to say?

history
Guest
history
Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It was posted 2 hours ago ffs.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Prices have dropped FAR more than 27 K as that phoney-baloney “benchmark price” lags at least 6 months behind what is truly going on price-wise.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

The only way to stop the illicit money from China is to BAN all Chinese from coming to Canada from the PRC. Obviously that won’t happen, so we will not stop the flows.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

All PRC rodents should have been banned from immigrating here immediately after this happened.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/how-a-b-c-man-pulled-off-one-of-the-most-sophisticated-immigration-frauds-in-canadian-history

Fraud is all they know in that corrupt shithole.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
You loose a lot of respect when you talk about all people in a group based on the action of individuals. Do you have difficulty understanding the difference between a group and individuals, or are you knowingly grouping people together because it makes you feel good? You’re a smart guy, so I cannot imagine that you are just confused incapable of grasping why it is wrong to take this approach. I think you are doing it, even though you know it is wrong, because it feels good, very much like a kid peeing in the pool. You must recognize that there is no real difference between your words and the words of, for example, the KKK or antisemites. That kind of approach causes hate and suffering for all, including yourself and those who you love. You are a grown man.… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Why are you incapable of realizing that this is not a case of a “few bad apples”, that this is systemic in that country?

There is a culture of corruption throughout their entire society and I don’t want them here, period.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

So you actually believe, in your heart of hearts, that everyone in China is bad?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

No idiot. I said the corruption is systemic, widespread and rampant.

That doesn not mean “everyone” is bad.

You’re beginning to sound as stupid as space.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

So, when you say, “All PRC rodents should have been banned from immigrating ,” what do you mean by that? My understanding is that you mean all people in or from the PCR should be banned (because they are bad) and you mean that all people in or from the PCR are subhuman (rodents).

Is that what you meant, or did you mean something different?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

See my previous comment re: shut the fuck up.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

On the principle of silence being assent, I am going to take it that you agree that you said, in that instance, that everyone in China was subhuman.

I don’t believe you think that is OK.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

We’re done.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

By the way, the KKK are white supremacists. All they care about is skin colour.

You’re awfully stupid to be bringing this up, you have no credibility.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That is incorrect, as two minutes on Wikipedia or any other source of information on the KKK would have told you. The KKK is also anti-Catholic, anti-Jewish and anti-immigration.

I find it very hard to distinguish between what you write and what a member of the KKK would write. To be clear, your behavior is evil. You will be happier if you do less evil. That’s just how life works.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

We’re all tired of your sermons.

Shut the fuck up.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I’m sorry for the inconvenience, but to turn a blind eye while some does something evil is a great wrong. If you keep your comments with in the very outer bounds of reasonable discourse, I will go back to bugging Oracle about her condo.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

This is not a classroom, it’s not a re-education camp, it’s not the Church of Newcomer.

You do not get to tell everyone how to behave or how to think.

You do not get to tell people how bad they are because you don’t like their opinions.

We’re all bored of your tedious preaching.

Shut the fuck up.

Seriously, shut the fuck up.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

If you do not want to be called out for being evil, just stop.

Comment about real estate. You are good at that. Why spoil it?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Everybody knows it is the only solution but rather playing dumb and misinformed while selling the country to the scummiest bidder.

paulb
Member

New
189
Price Change
23
Sold
86

TI:7160

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
@Just me offered some interesting data in the last thread. I like where you’re going with this Just me. Let me help you out a bit with some data I dug up. Btw before I get yelled at, I’m not arguing that foreign money is a major component of our price problems. I merely want to show that it can be a big enough component that we should care about it. The CREA announced that in 2016 a total of $77.6B of residential real estate was sold (source http://www.rew.ca/news/bc-and-canada-smash-records-for-home-sales-and-prices-in-2016-reports-1.7540188) 2015 saw sales of about $64B. We know for a fact that foreign buyers accounted for up to 20%, and at least 10% of real estate in a 5 week period during summer 2016. Let’s use your figure of $25B extra credit but attribute it to all of BC instead of… Read more »
Ulsterman
Member
I don’t think it matters whether the split between foreign / domestic money is 10/90, 15/85, or 20/80. I think the significant factor is psychological. Foreign Chinese money is like a steroid injection into our market – the catalyst that emboldens local buyers and specuvestors. If all foreign money was stopped tomorrow, locals earning local wages would very soon lose the confidence to borrow to the max to buy homes. Just the thought of “ooh, ooh, all this foreign money is pouring into Vancouver and because they’re so rich they’re unaffected by local conditions so prices will never REALLY go down” just keeps this market from really collapsing. I’m hoping that enough foreign cash has found more attractive and lower risk markets elsewhere and there will be the slow-but-steady drift down in prices. Hopefully we get to a psychological breaking… Read more »
squeak
Member
squeak

But there is one thing: lacking of data of who is buying and where they got their money from. By compliments of the Government.
Begs the question: Why is not such valuable data collected?

Lack of transparency : where there is smoke there is a fire.
It takes more work to hide, mislead, not being transparent than to be plain honest. Which makes one ask why would you want more work?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Ulsterman, you are delusional. There is a large amount of foreign money in Vancouver. These flows are very real and will continue unless we stop them in some way.

Ulsterman
Member

Just Me, i think your having trouble comprehending what i wrote – i don’t say it wasn’t a significant sum of money. I said it doesn’t matter the specific split. Whether it’s 5% or 20%, it’s the psychological boost this given domestic buyers to continue the real estate mania.

I’m intrigued. Do you have well-researched research show the dollar amount of real estate transactions buy foreigners being far in excess of 20%. Mine is just an example percentage, but your “delusional” statement makes me think you think my example is too low by several orders of magnitude. What’s your number?

patriotz
Member

You stop foreign money from going into RE by levying taxes that make high priced RE (relative to the buyer’s declared income) a bad investment though high taxation.

You cannot target “foreign money” per se because it’s impossible in an open economy like Canada’s.

realist
Member
realist

“I’m not arguing that foreign money is a major component of our price problems.”
You’re not? Then you don’t have much of an argument, at least in Vancouver West and West Van. Unless you wish to argue that foreign money in Vancouver West and West Van is the only component…that is more plausible.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Christine Duhaime: $2,000,000,000,000 in Proceeds of Corruption Removed from China and Taken to US, Australia, Canada and Netherlands.
http://www.antimoneylaunderinglaw.com/2017/01/qa-on-the-2-trillion-in-proceeds-of-corruption-removed-from-china-and-taken-to-us-australia-canada-and-netherlands.html
It’s China.

Alice
Guest
Alice

That total was all capital outflows, not explicitly the proceeds of crimes. Pretty sure she’s wrong. That capital also went to Europe, Africa (where Chinese investment is soaring), etc. Not saying it’s not a problem, but even 10% of that would be the size of all real estate sales last year in the whole country – it doesn’t make sense.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Wow.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Don’t tell the HAM deniers.

Just me
Guest
Just me
“I think regardless of the lack of data, its interesting to note that total new credit extended to Canadians is a drop in the bucket compared to estimated outflows from China. Even a small fraction can have significant distortion on our market. 0.5%: $6B, or around 8% of our total BC 2016 real estate sales 1%: $13B, or around 16% of our total BC 2016 real estate sales 2%: $26B, or around 32% of our total BC 2016 real estate sales There’s no analysis intended here, just an attempt to show some numbers. It’s foolish to assume 0% of foreign outflows from China made its way here to Vancouver. ” Thanks BR. I think you are much more eloquent than I am, and some of your arguments are exactly what I meant. As you wrote above, the main point here… Read more »
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

There are lots of numbers between 0% and 1%, you know?

And of course, we’ll know exactly how much revenue the foreign buyers tax has brought in.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Based on the implmentation of similar taxes elsewhere (HK) I reserve the right to doubt that all people who should pay it actually do. In HK it is clear that money flows where unabated, but official buyers were classified as locals.

Origin if the money and name on the title are not the same thing.

YVR
Guest
YVR

If a Lamborghini-driving”UBC student” brings in 5 millions from China and borrows 15 million to buy a home on the endowment lands, should that simply be counted as “local credit”?

Of course it is. Without the local banks lending at a ridiculously cheap rate with no income verification they couldn’t buy the house. Same as the local with $500k down who buys the $2M house. The $5 million brought in is less of an issue than the credit in this case.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Play dumb if you want. But my point is simple: this is not an over-extended local. And it might account for a much larger share of total borrowing.

of course it is credit. But not of the type I keep reading of this blog. More to the point: this is not a poor over-extended local family mortgaging its future; this is a business person that is trying to make some easy dough on Vancouver RE.
The two types might look similar to you, but they are not the same in my eyes.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
I think we’re both on the same page with this, but I do want to caution that foreign money is probably the hardest for us to control, so I do believe that improving housing costs will have to come in the form of making it harder for locals to buy and doing what we can to reduce all speculation and storing of wealth in homes, regardless of source of money. I know some people who believe strongly in the foreign money effect will argue that foreign money will then buy up everything, but I don’t think that’s the case. If the policies being announced throughout 2016 are well enforced in 2017, and if prices are cooling for a longer period, we’re going to see (IMO) a substantive reduction in foreign money involvement. Those policies are: – the City effectively reducing… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me
I agree. It seems clear though that the millionaire migrants we are talking about will not be subject to the CMHC constraints, as they will always be able to bring more than 20% of the value. I would suggest the following very easy fixes: 1 – require banks to charge a risk-premium (significant one) on mortgages by non-residents or by residents who do not have proof of any income, even if they bring a lot of wealth to the transaction. There is a difference between income and wealth. We should not launder money! 2 – make the carrying costs higher: this means higher property taxes. Perhaps a way to go is to make property taxes more progressive. The marginal property tax rate on a 20 million dollar home should be higher than that on a 1.5 million dwelling. If someone… Read more »
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

These are all good proposals. These would require well organized, empowered, brave and uncorrupted teams to enforce it in order to succeed in fighting locusts, scumbags and their allies. Almost the same as Eliot Ness and police department confronted organized crime in Chicago, 80 years ago.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“These would require well organized, empowered, brave and uncorrupted teams to enforce it”

We have a communist chinese mayor and a communist chinese PM, not to mention a thoroughly corrupt premiere who dresses in every ethnic costume on earth so we’re not even sure where she’s from .

Getting these things done seems like a longshot.