BC, data, equity, opinion, prices

Downtown condo sales prices drift down

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222 Comments

An anecdote from commenter YVR on asking prices downtown:

Every month a realtor send me listing and sales for my building where I rent. It is a newish building in downtown Vancouver so suites are almost identical to compare sale prices to. Here are the last 3 sales for almost identical suites:

March 2016 $1.32 million
June 2016 $1.36 million
Nov 2016 $1.15 million

From June to Nov that is over a 15% reduction or $210K in 5 months. Imagine being the person who bought in June and just received the same flyer with the recent sale price. Ouch. If he/she sold today after transaction costs they would be down by $280K and that assumes they could get the November price which is unlikely.

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Yunak

“The problem John Horgan’s got is nobody knows who he is,” Baldrey said. “This ad is going to start running on a saturation basis on television and radio pretty soon and a lot of people who haven’t heard of John Horgan up until now will be hearing about him – basically for the first time – along very negative lines. That’s a challenge for him to meet in the days and weeks running up to the May election.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/3173651/businesses-pay-for-attack-ads-targeting-ndp-leader-john-horgan/

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Just me

Let’s stop for a second to think which ones are the big businesses in Vancouver (the ones with deep pockets, having made much dough over the past few years):
— RE developer
— RE agents
— mortgage brokers
— furniture sellers
— RE lawyers and related services

Do you now understand why these people DO NOT want John Horgan to become BC Premier? They are clearly willing to spend money to brainwash voters.

Vote NDP if you want change. Things will not improve if you leave the BC Libs in office for a record fifth term.

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bullwhip29

BC Hydro gives families a cold-weather break — but NDP says rising rates the real problem
http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/01/11/bc-hydro-defers-heating-bill-ndp-blames-rising-rates.html

>>> more on operation Kick the Can…

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bullwhip29

Vancouver community centre closed to homeless after toddler finds needle in washroom
http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2017/01/11/vancouver-community-centre-closed-to-homeless-after-toddler-finds-needle-in-washroom

>>> rumors circulating that the needle was planted in an effort to get warming center closed down. game, set and match…lululemon moms

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bullwhip29

Bloomberg: Vancouver Renters Help Million-Dollar Homeowners With Their Taxes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/vancouver-renters-aid-million-dollar-homeowners-with-their-taxes

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Newcomer

Word!

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bullwhip29

Frank Gehry’s $1-billion downtown project could finally be a go after a Chinese builder’s $290-million investment
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-grand-avenue-redux-20170103-story.html

>>> it never fails that projects like this seem to always have ties to Vancouver

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bullwhip29

Even with changes, condo not welcome on important Chinatown site
http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/01/11/condo-not-welcome-on-important-chinatown-site.html

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Hyper-mega-Bull

funny that it’s always WASPs and chinese who complain the most about their neighborhoods being changed.

little italy, greektown, punjabi market, etc, etc, all transformed and people just get on with their lives.

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Newcomer

Everyone complains. Some complaints make the paper. And you notice a subsection of those complaints.

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southseacompany

More supply:
“BC housing starts hit highest level in decades last year”, South China Morning Post

http://www.scmp.com/property/international/article/2061199/bc-housing-starts-hit-highest-level-decades-last-year

“Housing starts in British Columbia, Canada increased to 41,800 units on an annualised basis in December, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, giving last year the province’s highest yearly total since 1993.”

“In Vancouver alone, starts reached 26,500 annualised units in December, which is up from 22,400 in December 2015”

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Newcomer

That’s more than twice corresponding population growth. Those who think current prices reflect the relationship between supply and demand must now predict price drops. Right, Oracle?

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southseacompany

“Fed on Edge as Trump Growth Bump Boosts Risks of Rate-Hike Error”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/fed-on-edge-as-trump-growth-bump-boosts-risks-of-rate-hike-error

“Since quantitative easing ended in 2014, Fed officials have indicated a preference for moving their benchmark policy rate to normal levels. Gradual is the term they’ve used to describe the rising trajectory. Now, they are trying to convince investors — and themselves — that they’re prepared to shift to faster rate hikes if necessary.”

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southseacompany

“Fears of Canadian housing market correction prompt downgrade of CIBC, Genworth and Home Capital”, Financial Post
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/trading-desk/fears-of-canadian-housing-market-correction-prompt-downgrade-of-cibc-genworth-and-home-capital?__lsa=014a-e933

“The risks of a correction in Canada’s housing market have risen, and home prices would need to fall by as much as 30 per cent or more to return to trend levels, Macquarie Capital warned in a new report.”

“Downgrading CIBC, Genworth MI Canada Inc. and Home Capital Group Inc. to underperform from neutral, analysts Jason Bilodeau and David Doyle recommended investors reduce their exposure to the Canadian financial services sector, specifically domestically-focused banks and lenders.”

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Newcomer

And that 30% is Canada wide. Imagine what it translates to in Vancouver.

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southseacompany

“How lenders are sidestepping Canada’s mortgage rules with ‘bundles’ of debt”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/how-lenders-are-sidestepping-canadas-mortgage-rules-with-bundles-of-debt

” Canada’s subprime mortgage providers are increasingly teaming up with unregulated rivals to sidestep rules designed to clamp down on risky lending.”

“The result of these partnerships are so-called “bundled” loans, which pair a primary mortgage with a second loan from unregulated groups called Mortgage Investment Corporations “

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Oracle

Glad to see people see what Newcomer is really about.

It was only a matter of time.

If we can stop the flow of foreign money from China or the flow of people getting immigration status from China (by posting the articles of deceit, corruption, breaking laws, etc,), then maybe we can make this city affordable for families who make ONE country their home.

Fight back at people who play the race card.

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YVR

“Fight back at people who play the race card”

Yes like those people who come up with names such as ChinaOne and pretend to be a wealthy Chinese student living on the Westside when they are really a Surrey East Indian house wife who also goes by the name Oracle amounst others.

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Oracle

Sounds like a Tina Fey doing a parody on Sarah Palin. Or SNL on Trump.

Go join a Greenpeace movement or something.

It’s a dog eat dog world out there. Not for the timid.

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Richmond driver of Bond-style car shaken, stirred over bill
Jessica Liu is angry over $132,000 costs for repair of luxury, $200,000 Aston Martin

having driven the stunning limited edition — only 100 were made — for only a few kilometres before she inexplicably veered off the road and hit a large stone near Blundell and Garden City roads in December 2015.

It has been more than a year since Liu — who regularly travels to and from China on business — has driven the car and seven months since she has even seen it.

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/richmond-driver-of-bond-style-car-shaken-stirred-over-bill-1.6930405

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Kim

What? This bitch can’t afford a 132k repair bill? What a pretender.

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Best place on meth

Bitch should have bought a Honda.

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bullwhip29

is this Jessica Liu the realtor or the personal injury lawyer?

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Yunak

It is always a risk when one have fake DL or cheat on driving test. Luckily the talent didn’t kill anybody.

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southseacompany

“B.C.’s homeowner grant doesn’t distinguish between rich and poor, critics charge”, Metro News
http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/01/10/homeowner-grant-doesnt-distinguish-between-rich-and-poor.html

““I think it’s time to question why the provincial government is offering grants to wealthy homeowners when there appears to be insufficient funds to subsidize single mothers who can’t afford their rent,” said Michael Geller, an architect and urban planner.”

“In a story published Jan. 10, Metro explored the growing use of the property tax deferral program, which allows homeowners over 55 or those with children to defer their property taxes. The province reimburses municipalities for the deferred taxes.”
“Geller is critical of both programs: as neither are income-tested, they benefit the well-off as well as “house rich, cash poor” homeowners.”

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YVR

“Geller is critical of both programs: as neither are income-tested, they benefit the well-off as well as “house rich, cash poor” homeowners.”

The problem with income testing anything is we really have no idea what many of the wealthy in this province really earn (they don’t declare income). If they gave the grant and tax deferral to people with “low income” that would be most of the wealthiest HAM in the Westside of Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond. It would be working class people in East Van and Surrey and elderly who worked their whole lives here and now have a pension who wouldn’t qualify because they all declare income.

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patriotz

HOG is simply a scheme to buy the votes of homeowners regardless of income or wealth. So is property tax deferral, which has the additional effect of supporting higher prices by keeping people in houses they can’t really afford.

I don’t see why anyone needs to ask the question when the answer is so obvious.

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MarKoz

And to that end…

“Threshold for B.C. homeowner grant raised to $1.6 million”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/tax-relief-program-for-bc-homeowners-expanded-as-prices-soar/article33562174/

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YVR

Bye bye Airbnb Richmond.

Councillors in Richmond, B.C., have voted to prohibit short-term rentals such as Airbnb…councillors voted unanimously on Monday to reverse course, instead prohibiting all short-term rentals aside from hotels, motels, B&Bs and other forms of accommodation that are already permitted.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/richmond-bc-votes-to-ban-short-term-rentals/article33573930/

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Newcomer

Halleluja!

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Hyper-mega-Bull

you can make as many laws as you want, it doesn’t matter if they aren’t enforced. when everyone in the city is a cheater you have no hope of stopping them.

there are so many illegal hotels in richmond that city staff admits they can’t enforce the law. these are houses with a checkin/checkout desk by the front door and every room turned into a bedroom.

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/investigation-inside-one-of-richmond-s-growing-number-of-illegal-hotels-and-guest-houses-1.2355735

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/city-of-richmond-staff-urge-legalizing-illegal-hotels-1.6154283

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BubbleTea

Perfect for student or low-income housewife.

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paulb

New
201
Price Change
29
Sold
61

TI:6620

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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franko

BAMBI’S CABINET SHFFLE:
The Good:
McCallum banished to China.
Stefan Dion booted out of caucus.
Chrystia Freeland speaks fluent Russian.

The Bad:
Freeland is banned from Russia.
She had to be rescued from Belgium by a plane load of VIPs after bungling the Euro deal.

The Ugly:
Do we really need to showcase any more visible minorities like Ahmed Hussen to head our immigration ministry?

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YVR

“Stefan Dion booted out of caucus.”

Imagine this guy was the Liberal leader and ran for PM not too long ago. Now he can’t hold a cabinet post for more than a year in a group of flunkies. Maybe he has too many bad traits. Like being male and white. I guess being French is just not enough these days.

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Best place on meth

Dion stood idly by as that commie piece of shit Wang berated a Canadian reporter.

It was one of the most embarassing moments in our nation’s history.

Good riddance to that coward.

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Newcomer

You are overstating the case, but it certainly was shameful. I would have summoned the ambassador for a dressing down and canceled a visit or two at least. (Well, to be honest, if I were in charge, there would be massive trade sanctions in place and very few visits anyway, but you get my drift.) — Sorry to be off topic.

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Kim

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/patients-of-suspected-fake-delta-b-c-plastic-surgeon-warned-to-get-tested-for-hiv-hepatitis-1.3908147

China importing fake plastic surgeons into this country as well.

The good ‘doctor’ ensared an unsuspecting caucasian spouse looks like. What other fake stuff can we expect from the motherland?

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Newcomer

How does this relate to Vancouver condo information?

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Abdul Lahazi

They all live in houses and use fake and /or undeclared income to pay for said houses. Is that good enough for ya?

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Newcomer

No, it is not.

It’s not clear who you mean by “they.” If you mean fake plastic surgeons, then their numbers are not high enough to impact prices. If you mean everyone of Chinese ancestry or everyone of Chinese nationality then, as you yourself will agree, your statement is false.

If you meant something else, please explain.

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Yunak

“It’s not clear who you mean by “they.””

Perhaps here it can be figured out…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-crackdown-tax-cheats-south-china-morning-post-1.3681632

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Yunak

or here…

http://immigrationwatchcanada.org/2012/09/06/taiwan-immigrant-canada-is-being-cheated-by-wealthy-immigrants/

they all have something in common…

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Best place on meth

Don’t waste your time on newcomer, s/he prefers to play dumb.

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Yunak

I assume this topic qualifies as housing related? These are our neighbors, we live all close by.

““Statistics Canada continues to show (the entire city of) Richmond as one of the poorest cities in British Columbia, with a very high child poverty rate,” says Halsey-Brandt, who also represented Richmond as a B.C. Liberal cabinet minister.

This is a “serious financial issue,” Halsey-Brandt said, “because of the demands placed on our health care and education systems by newcomers.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Part+Ritzy+Richmond+neighbourhood+where+many+poor/11136169/story.html

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Newcomer

I’m not sure it does. My neighbor, who lives right next door to me, is a Canucks fan, but that doesn’t make Canucks games housing related.

As the man says, it is a “serious financial issue,” “because of the demands placed on our health care and education systems by newcomers.” And thus clearly has diddly squat to do with housing.

There are tons of places for racists and xenophobes on the Internet. Surely you would be better served talking about these things in one of those places.

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Shut It Down Already

Be careful, Newcomer, you just might summon the alpha douchebag.

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bullwhip29

i think if one peeled back a few layers they would be able to see that the underground economy in gr vanc and elsewhere in bc accounts for a much larger % of overall economic activity than meets the eye. without all the bogus salons, grow ops, massage parlours, plastic surgeons, dentists, contractors and real estate agents where would things really stand?

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Newcomer

You are really stretching.

What happened to the good old days when people used to say Vancouver real estate prices were made possible by grow ops. Remember that?

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bullwhip29

bottomline is that a variety of income supplements (whether legal or not) are needed to keep many from slipping off the treadmill and doing a faceplant. the other aspect of this discussion revolves around the increasing disregard for rules, bylaws and quite frankly your fellow neighbor. at the center of it all is Real Estate.

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Newcomer

Have you noticed that this argument directly contradicts your main argument to the effect that prices are maintained by an endless stream of money from China.

So which is it? Is the housing market held up by Chinese crooks generating money locally to cover mortgage payments, or is it held up my money made in China?

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Oracle

Oh please. Enough of the race card.

Go to China and plead your case.

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Best place on meth

This is a “serious financial issue,” Halsey-Brandt said, “because of the demands placed on our health care and education systems by newcomers.”

What kind of newcomers are they referring to, the ones from Ontario?

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Foo Man

If we’re lobbying for bans – can we get rid of this tedious wanker? christ newcomer – shut the fuck up

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Shut It Down Already

Solid contribution. You really raised the tone.

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bullwhip29

i suspect there are hundreds of underground businesses like this all over gr vanc in addition to bogus fly by night day cares, educational programs among other extra curricular activities whose operators are all cashing in on the govt subsidies and probably grossly understating their incomes at the same time

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Newcomer

Weren’t we talking about real estate?

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CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

You think real estate has nothing to do with the general economy nor the what kinds of communities of living we form together? That’s weird.

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Just me

If you compare the housing proposals of the NDP, they make sense and would result in a much better chance of locals having access to decent housing. The same cannot be said of the (corrupt) BC Libs.

I thought I would never say this, but next Spring I am going to vote for the NDP. There is no question in my mind that voting NDP is in the best interest of people who work and live in BC.

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southseacompany

“Canadians are getting help from ‘bank of mom and dad’ to buy first home, with B.C. and Quebec leading the way”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadians-are-getting-help-from-bank-of-mom-and-dad-to-buy-first-home-with-b-c-and-quebec-leading-the-way

“In British Columbia’s booming real estate market 42 per cent of first-time buyers received family financial aid, support that appears to be behind almost half of home purchasers getting over the key hurdle of a 20 per cent down payment, according to a survey out Tuesday.”

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squeak

Ooh the tulip mania!
Frothing and hyper ventilating.

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Bear Vancouverite

Since it was suggested that the NDP might be going for an anti-HAM platform, I wanted to share my opinion based on what I’ve read and emails I’ve traded with NDP MLA David Eby. I don’t think the NDP will have an anti-HAM platform. Instead, their position is that people not declaring local incomes might need to pay higher taxes on property. Here’s a direct quote from David Eby’s Reddit AMA (dated Jun 22 2016) User asks: “I don’t understand this reasoning. Tax jurisdiction is both a much harder test to police and much easier to circumvent than citizenship. If the goal is to stop foreign speculation, a citizenship requirement is a no brainer.” David Eby’s response: “I don’t know how it’s easy to fake paying taxes. You either do or you don’t. Plus if you’re saying “Hey, I’m paying… Read more »

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Newcomer

That all makes sense to me. Damn, I don’t like voting NDP, but I might have to this time.

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C.Junta

Consider reading that reddit discussion thoroughly, it’s worth it. NDPs stance on other things (like Uber) will make you think twice.

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Newcomer

No doubt. I have very little patience for their pinko ways in general (though I’m not a fan of Uber).

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YVR

“NDPs stance on other things (like Uber) will make you think twice.”

The BC Liberals have not exactly welcomed Uber but at least it seems to be on the horizon. Pretty clear the NDP will keep us in the dark ages for transportation. Vision Vancouver city council is all former NDP and their track record speaks for itself.

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YVR

Lets see if this new tax system is part of the NDP official election platform. David Eby is great but he is one person in a group of politically correct idiots.

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patriotz

Eby is just as “politically correct” as the rest of the NDP. Look at his record at the BCCLU. He just appears different to many people on this forum because his job is to represent the NDP’s position on housing, which they like, rather than the NDP’s positions on other issues, which they may not like.

The NDP’s position on housing like their other positions derives from their opposition to social and economic inequality. It’s a package deal. If you like social and economic inequality, vote for Christy, because that’s what she stands for.

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bullwhip29

Canada rental costs infographic shows 1 place pricier than Vancouver
http://globalnews.ca/news/3170670/canada-rental-costs-infographic-shows-1-place-pricier-than-vancouver/

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Newcomer

Neat. Quite a bit lower than I would have thought.

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bullwhip29

Victoria housing market keeps rising in 2017
http://globalnews.ca/news/3170690/victoria-housing-market-keeps-rising-in-2017/

“Expectations that foreign buyers would flock to Victoria to avoid the 15-per-cent Metro Vancouver home tax has not happened, instead purchasers are arriving from other areas of the country…”

>>> well, it is a given that many locals have moved for the so called better lifestyle and more i mportantly, for economic reasons. I don’t necessarily agree that foreign owners are not making their presense felt with neighborhoods like Oak Bay, Uplands etc looking more and more like the west side neighborhoods of Vancouver

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Hyper-mega-Bull

Xi to be first Chinese leader to attend Davos World Economic Forum

https://www.yahoo.com/news/xi-first-chinese-president-join-davos-world-economic-100127953.html

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