Vancouver renters help pay homeowner taxes

If you own a small run down million dollar house in Vancouver, let’s take a moment to thank the renters who help pay for some vital services, like the new first time buyer loans and the homeowner grant, the cap of which has just been raised to 1.6 million.

“This is a remarkably lousy policy,” said Thomas Davidoff, head of the University of British Columbia’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate. “You’re going to take money from people who don’t own homes and give it to people who own homes. That seems to be a step exactly in the wrong direction if the dominant issue is affordability.”

Read the full article over at Bloomberg.

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bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Richmond homeowners out of reach of government help despite tax grant changes
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-ups-homeowner-grant-by-a-third-as-property-assessment-values-skyrocket

>>> who wants to setup a gofundme page to help the poor Fograschers out? Even though their assessment surged by some $680k or so and they dont pay property taxes, these lottery like windfall gains are only on paper until they throw in the towel and sell

Just me
Guest
Just me

In the previous thread there was a link to a new ad being run. It is paid for by BC businesses.

Let’s stop for a second to think which ones are the big businesses in Vancouver (the ones with deep pockets, having made much dough over the past few years):

— RE developer
— RE agents
— mortgage brokers
— furniture sellers
— RE lawyers and related services

Do you now understand why these people DO NOT want John Horgan to become BC Premier? They are clearly willing to spend money to brainwash voters.

Vote NDP if you want change. Things will not improve if you leave the BC Libs in office for a record fifth term.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

Right on, besides having Clark as a premier is an insult to any intelligent and righteous person.

Dave
Member

The NDP will most definitely kill the housing market. However, it will likely be a side effect of economic stagnation, not bureaucratic competence.

If you you want another stagnant economic decade, then vote NDP.

Just me
Guest
Just me

What is your alternative? Another 10 years of what we just had? Shall we go live with our families under a bridge?
The BC Libs have made it clear who they care for: rich homeowners and RE businesses. Why should I vote for them?

Moreover, I doubt the economic competence of the NDP is much worse than the BC Libs. The only economic activity they managed to generate is RE-related. Not even their deregulation of natural resources has brough much fruit.

They have made Vancouver a resort for the very rich, why should anyone else vote for them?

Yunak
Member
Yunak

“They have made Vancouver a resort for the very rich.”

Rich scumbags, crooked officials and the other swindlers and criminals to launder money and hide but not for the rich businesspeople, entrepreneurs, creatives, and philanthropists.

Dave
Member
I partly agree with you in that RE represents too much of our local economy. But the Liberals have done well with other parts of our economy and we’ve had the best growth in Canada for a quite a long time. If you work for government or are in a Union, you’re probably best to vote NDP because you’re going to get paid no matter what happens and cheaper RE is in your interest if you don’t own. If you’re under 30 and don’t have kids, I’d suggest you vote with your feet and just get the hell out. The RE problem in Vancouver goes far deeper than the Provincial government. I would say of the three levels, they are least responsible for our current situation. The Feds get blame for immigration policies and lack of tax scrutiny. The local… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

Actually, you do have a choice. Give the NDP a chance for five years, and if they don’t turn out to be good kick them out. It is called democracy.
Do you think it is reasonable to keep the same party in power for 20 plus years? Are the BC Libs really the only option here?
Perhaps you should question your assumptions, as they seem more relevant to the 1980s than to today’s world.

Anyway, you will not convince me: I will have to vote for the NDP as I could not live with myself if I voted again for the BC Libs.
There is still something called self-respect…

Dave
Member
The NDP refuse to change with the times. They are full of the same old crowd of special interests that can’t wait to get their fingers into the workings of government. Until they present a more modern vision, I could never vote for them, nevermind the fact that I’m too right wing to vote left of centre (federal Liberal of US Democrat is as far left as I can vote). What normally happens in a Democracy is that the losing party eventually changes with the times. For example, Tony Blair took Labour to the middle and won a couple terms. Harper cracked down on the loons in the Reform Party and moderated by merging with the PC’s. The NDP refuses to stand up to their special interests and present this Province with a viable vision of governance. Until they do,… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

Exactly my point. For some people ideology trumps any other motive.

At least you are willing to admit it. Even if the NDP had the best policy proposition, you would not vote for them.

Dave
Member

I’m not an ideologue. But I am biased in my belief that the free market is the best way to manage an economy. The NDP have never believed that, nor are they likely to ever believe that (they will say otherwise at times, but it’s BS). That’s why I say I would never vote for them.

But I can vote Federal Liberal or would vote US Democrat, which are both centre or even left of centre at times because neither cross that ideological line and both of those parties fundamentally believe in the free market.

Just me
Guest
Just me

If you believe in free markets, you should certainly vote to stop the inflow of Chines money into Vancouver.

There is nothing free market about the way that money was acquired. Or does it become free market when it passes the Canadian border?

And what about the BC Libs mortgage assistance program for first time buyers? Is that free market?

You do make me laugh. Of course you are an ideologue. Otherwise you would not make such arguments. Come out of the closet.

Dave
Member

I don’t consider my belief in free markets to be an ideology. I see economics as an academic discipline, not subjective political thought. We can split hairs all day, but that’s how I view it. If a political party can’t accept the basics of economics, I reject them, the same way I reject people who don’t believe evolution.

I also don’t agree with your premise that my belief in free markets would require me to reject Chinese money. Economics would simply tell you what the implications of slowing that money down (changes demand curve) would be. You can decide whether or not that makes political sense. But with the NDP, they reject that type of analysis and believe they can have their cake and eat it too.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Just to follow up: free market means no intervention. Would you agree we should then scrap:

1) CMHC;
2) Homeowners grants;
3) first time buyers mortgage assistance;
4) equalize the marginal taxation of housing and other forms of wealth?
5) the list goes on…

This is basic economics: if you give tax advantages to a particular saving vehicle (any form of wealth) people will hold it more than it is ex-ante optimal in their portfolios. Scientific enough or shall i write equations for you?

Think, man, think…

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Your post reads like a Vote Liberal ad.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Why? Because I asked you to actually think?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

You’re talking about you. Dave is talking about the NDP doing what every other party does to encourage potential voters to come on board.

YLTNboomerang
Member
Dave, I’ve voted Liberal provincially and conservative Federally, other than guns and god I’m as right wing as you can get and I’ve already donated to the NDP this year. My vote is a protest vote, I don’t like much of what the NDP stand for and asked them to stop emailing me after donating as much of their platform makes me angry but the Liberls need to go on BC as they have been in power too long and are likely the most corrupt party in Canada! I hope the NDP does a good job and I’ll likely vote Liberal in 4 years time again but they need to learn that they need to earn votes. If you think I am an anomaly, my folks are even more right wing and they feel the same way, Krusty and the… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch

“If you have a regular private sector job or run a business, you have no choice but to vote Liberal.” That’s the ugly truth.

patriotz
Member

“However, it will likely be a side effect of economic stagnation”

Sure during the NDP decade you could blame the weak performance of RE (which did go up overall but not by a lot) on other sectors, But today RE is BC’s primary economic mover – so a weak RE market would be the cause of stagnation rather than an effect.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Patriotz, there is a subset of the population who hate the NDP and will not vote for it, even if this means financial suicide and self-flagellation.
Such individuals work under the assumption that the BC Libs have a great record of managing the economy, somewhat superior to what an NDP government would have.
I don’t do ideology and try to look at the facts. The facts are telling me that the worst case scenario is Christy Clark in office for 5 more years.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

I don’t know why they think the BC Libs manage the economy well. Why do they? What’s their reasoning here? To me it seems like they think small and close up.

YLTNboomerang
Member

I was part of this segment but I now view the Liberals as so corrupt that I will vote NDP just to force the Libs to do a housecleaning and remember they work for the population not the corporation. BTW, I even donated to the NDP this year and have never donated to a political party in my life…I can’t stand half of what Horgan stands for but can’t stand 100% of Krusty.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

What parts of Horgans platform repulse you?

The reason I ask is that many people don’t even know what the NDP stand for in 2017, but still hold an opinion of them from a generation ago.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle
Sure. That’s a no brainer for any renter… to vote NDP. Some issues: 1) The Greens are gonna get lots of media coverage from CC friendly MSM. Sheep gonna fall for it and split the opposition vote. Just like the present powers want. 2) The last decade and a half has given the corp/corrupt lobby enough time to infiltrate the BC NDP. There are some MLA’s running who’s extended families are in the home building business. Don’t shoot the messenger. 3) I’m thinking the NDP is trying to throw this election because the people behind the scenes are now the same. — Who waits until a few months before an election to start campaigning especially when they know MSM isn’t going to give them airtime? I’m sure they know you need more than 100 days for this stuff. NDP still… Read more »
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Richmond to enforce ban on short-term Airbnb rentals, says mayor
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/richmond-bans-airbnb-1.3930551

patriotz
Member
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Now now. Let’s try not to deflect attention away from foreign money inflows.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

In the other thread we had people saying you might want to think twice before voting NDP because of their other policies, including policies on Uber.

Do a bit of cost – benefit analysis and you’ll quickly find that housing costs greatly outweigh taxi costs. It gets even worse if you have to commute from Chilliwack to work in DT Vancouver.

So do yourself a favour, look at the bigger picture. Don’t vote for higher housing cost to save on taxi rides.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

PS. Someone else previously stated some months ago they would vote Liberals because they don’t like the NDP proposal for raising taxes for child care. Here’s a fact check:

– the tax only applies to those earning $150k or more a year

Do yourself a favour, look at the bigger picture. Don’t vote for higher housing costs to save high income earners some taxes.

Source: http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ndp-to-raise-taxes-to-pay-for-10-dollar-a-day-daycare

To be fair, the NDP keep bringing up this childcare concept even though according to the Sun, 80% of BC parents surveyed in 2015 province were satisfied with their child care. Maybe the NDP just needs to learn to fight for policies people care about instead of their own social agendas.

Many Franks
Member
Active Member

That 80% sure as hell isn’t raising kids around Vancouver.

YVR
Guest
YVR

That policy would prevent me from voting NDP. Housing will correct under either government. Bubbles always pop.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Also don’t be fooled the NDP will only raise taxes on the 150K and up bracket. After their last time in office they raised them on everyone. When Gordon Campbell was elected he cut income taxes by 25% at every tax bracket and they remain low today. The NDP will jack them up for everyone and hand the money to government unions.

First Timer
Guest
First Timer

Sort of. He reduced the direct taxes I paid, but my MSP premiums went up more than my income tax went down.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yes, but do you want to wait another ten years for that to happen?

patriotz
Member

“you’ll quickly find that housing costs greatly outweigh taxi costs”

No fooling. Look, everyone already knows this. The people who cite Uber are just using it to indicate an ideological preference. That also goes for those opposing the retention of the income surtax (it’s not a new tax increase) for $150K+ – as if anyone on this forum actually makes that much.

Dave
Member

Ha, in Vancouver, $150,000 makes you the working poor. Sad but true. More taxes and bureaucracy isn’t the solution, and believe me, I think our child policies in this city are terrible. This City hates families, that’s why we’re closing down schools while we build towers. We punish working people and we punish businesses. You should see what some small commercial businesses have to pay in municipal taxes. Blows my mind. Taking more money from the people trying to get ahead is dumb.

DaMann
Member
Active Member
DaMann

so your solution is to vote Liberal again and again? Odd logic. Believe me, I don’t like a lot of what the NDP stand for but to vote Liberal is to vote for the destruction of this city which is already well under way. If your’re rich then yes you will be voting Liberal, but any person who has any remote interest in making this a fair livable city should give NDP a try for one term. Again, I hate the NDP but that’s where my vote is going this time. The Liberals make me puke with the way they have been carrying on.

Dave
Member

As above, I think the Province is the least guilty party compared to the Feds and municipalities. Want to blame somebody, blame our immigration system that rewards real estate speculators, our taxman who gives zero care to sketchy financials or the central bank who kept cutting rates when it wasn’t necessary. And then you can blame the City for not creating housing or family housing. The Province is the least guilty. At least they built roads and bridges to give some families a chance at owning something more than a shoebox.

Just me
Guest
Just me
You forget what the Provincial BC Libs have declared in the past few years: 1) Christy Clark: more affordable housing is good; but this should not mean lower house prices, because we cannot reduce the equity value of existing homeowners (read: you can forget about policies that seriously reduced the crazy demand pressure on the limited housing stock!) 2) Some random minister said recently that people don’t have a god given right to live in Vancouver, but should move to Abbotsford (read: we know your livelihood and work is in vancouver, but you will have to commute three hours a day and suck it up. Vancouver has been sold to foreign non-resident millionaires, and a few baby-boomers got rich in the process. We don’t care about you) 3) Mike DeJong iterated in multiple occasions that any policy that would seriously… Read more »
Dave
Member
The collective realization that Chinese money has inflated our market is actually quite recent. The public and political shift only happened about a year ago. If you made this claim two years ago, most people wouldn’t have agreed or have seen it that way. People will remember it being otherwise because we rewrite history in our minds (we think we’re always right), but truth is, this wasn’t conventional thought just a couple years ago, even on this blog. This was a 50:50 debate here only until recent history. I was definitely wrong about the amount of Chinese money in our market and I bought into the statistics (which are faulty) that showed it only a small percent of the market. A lot of people here had that aspect right before I did and I’m only a couple years into thinking… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

If you were wrongly swayed by collective opinion before, how do you know that you are not so now?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You forget the CMHC and the banks. Immigration is a red herring.

Dave
Member

I agree on CMHC, but banks are going bank, that’s their job.

I’m all for immigration and I think Canada should aim for higher growth rates. We should aim to be the size of the UK or Germany in population. Being 10% of the US, we have more or less no meaning. If we were 20%, it would be a different story and I think tremendously economically beneficial for us.

But I don’t agree that importing Chinese millionaires is good immigration policy. We need to bring in people who want to invest and create jobs rather than just buy real estate and a passport/insurance policy. We also need to find a way to get working immigrants moving to places other than Vancouver and Toronto.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Of course the banks will do their job, which is why they must be regulated so that they do their job in a way that benefits the country. Banks enjoy enormous protections from the Canadian government, starting with oligopoly status and continuing to things like the right to create money. It is appropriate that they be tightly regulated and work for, not against, the interests of the people.

DaMann
Member
Active Member
DaMann

No, immigration is not a red herring. Is it a big factor? Probably not huge. I agree, CMHC and “free money” in the name of cheap interest rates are probably the biggest but to suggest immigration is a red herring is simply not true. There has been more than enough evidence to suggest it is a factor, how much is debatable.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s a factor, but it’s not a controllable factor. Immigration rates haven’t changed (they are no larger as a percentage of population) and there is more than enough housing stock to accommodate all the immigrants. Some immigrants have brought a lot of money and this impacts prices, but that is not something that can be stopped by policy.

I say it is a red herring because realtors like Dave, and many other well intentioned people, talk about it as if lower immigration would impact house prices, when it almost certainly would not.

DaMann
Member
Active Member
DaMann

In some cases controllable. The IIP being but one thing.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

The IPP was shameful. It was corrupt in its very nature and an invitation to further corruption. But it was cancelled and prices still went up, so that’s not a major driver.

patriotz
Member

“that is not something that can be stopped by policy”

The province can’t stop immigrants, it can’t stop them bringing money, but it can stop immigrants (and everyone else) from buying RE at excessive prices.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Right, but that would not be an immigration policy, just a plain old housing policy.

patriotz
Member

That is exactly the point. The problem is housing policy, not immigration policy.

Just me
Guest
Just me
Can’t believe we are still questioning the importance of Chinese money. Of course it is massive: both in absolute and in relative terms. If we were in 2012, perhaps some people might still have a few doubts. But not now. CMHC and credit were NOT responsible for the final, majestic run-up in prices of 2015/2016. There is only one explanation for that: sudden and massive capital outflows from China. When the Chinese government started claiming down on outflows (circa February/March 2016) the Vancouver market started ebbing. This slowdown has become more pronounced after the 15% tax on non-residents, but a further slowdown should be expected if the Chinese government manages to restrain outflows over the next few months. I also had doubts in the past about the relative importance of Chinese money for home prices in the GVRD. Now I… Read more »
Oracle
Guest
Oracle

No ones debating. Newcomer wants to their a wrench your guys thinking process.

Newcomer doesn’t have a response why prices are higher in Vancouver than Edmonton. Both places have the same CMHC …

I’ll stop. Liars don’t deserve a response.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Oracle, it is clear that you have never been to Edmonton.

specuskeptic
Member

“Liars don’t deserve a response.”
I’ll just leave that right here, sock-puppet master.

Also, does promising to leave and then continuing to post constitute lying? Asking for a friend…

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I’m not questioning the importance of Chinese money (though I think you are overstating the case). I am questioning the importance of immigration. They are not the same thing at all. You could half or double the immigration quotas without having any impact on the influx of Chinese money.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Right. LMAO

Immigration is a red herring?

That ship has sailed. Your deceiving days are over.

.

specuskeptic
Member

“Your deceiving days are over”

Oracle/China One’s deceiving days just continue rolling along…

DaMann
Member
Active Member
DaMann

I simply can’t agree with that assessment. Yes, the Feds have played a huge part, I’m not so sure the municipalities have as much to blame as their powers aside from zoning are pretty limited. But for me, the Libs are one of the most culpable. Just Me pointed out a few of the many examples of disdain the Libs have for anyone not wealthy. Increasing the home owners grant thresh hold and the ridiculous no interest loan is but a mere example of not having ANY intention of fixing the housing issue, in fact it’s the last thing they want.

BUT having said all that, I like your contributions and feel you’re pretty spot on with a lot of things, even if i don’t agree with them. The Libs being one of them!

patriotz
Member

“The Province is the least guilty.”

Oh please. There is no provincial or state government in North America, if not the world, that has such overt and brazen policies to boost RE prices.

The BC government, on its own, can end this bubble tomorrow. You can’t claim that the NDP would cause a RE crash and then claim the Liberals aren’t responsible for the bubble. How dumb do you think we are?

YLTNboomerang
Member

Dave, $150,000 might not be much with the easy commissions you and the other realtors/mortgage brokers have been raking in but once that gravy train dries up due to a combination of price correction and liberalization of MLS data many will wish they had a “working” salary of $150K.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Can’t you make $150K as Transit Police these days?

All joking aside I believe there are many people in games and movies who make that much with the amount of overtime they do.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

150K puts you in the top 5% in BC, probably the top 10 or 15% in Vancouver. It’s not rich, but it’s head and shoulders above what most voters make.

patriotz
Member

It’s a lot lower than that, about 2.5% of tax filers in BC have incomes >= $150K. And metro Vancouver is about 3.5%.

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/gncy/stts/itsa-sipr/2013/prvtbl1bc-eng.pdf

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I use this (2014) which gives it as about 4.3% for BC, and I just guessed the Vancouver number. Do the codes on the left in your link indicate geographical regions? http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil105k-eng.htm

patriotz
Member

Per your table (2014), total >=$150K is 87,170/3,528,430 = 2.47%.

My table is just CMA’s actually and the code indicates CMA, 933 is Vancouver obviously.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

OK, I see where I went wrong. I thought those were tranches, not running totals, so I summed the last three “tranches. ”

That’s a lot lower than I thought it would be. So it is really only the top 2.5% who can afford a house in Vancouver, and a pretty crappy one, at that.

C.Junta
Member
C.Junta
>”we had people saying you might want to think twice before voting NDP” It was yours truly. I am not going to answer the “housing vs Uber” troll bait, we all know what I was talking about. It all boils down to a simple dilemma: there is a bunch of people in GV who would never vote NDP for a number of good reasons, and they are tempted to do so this time just to stop this madness blessed and fueled by BCLibs. I happened to be one of those folks and: – I am convinced that we do not have any guarantee that NDP will actually stop it; – I do not buy the “working people” rhetoric: everyone has his/her own definition of what “working people” means; – I had a chance to listen to one of our NDP… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

At least, in this tough choice, you know already what the outcome of voting for the BC Libs will be: more of the same.

Granted, there may be some uncertainty about what the NDP government will do, but there is a very high chance that the housing market will not be “business as usual”. That is exactly what RE business people fear, and why they are bankrolling Christy Clark.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“At least, in this tough choice, you know already what the outcome of voting for the BC Libs will be: more of the same.”

Last time I checked housing prices are going down. Three more of the same would put housing at 70% lower than peak. The bubble has popped. It does not matter who gets in for housing prices are going down.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Dream on.
I wish you were right. We have been at similar junctures before in the past ten years, and the market picked up stronger than before.

You are also under-estimating the determination of the BC Libs (in their unholy alliance with the RE industry) to support this market. If prices were to adjust a further 20% down, they would immediately step in and remove the 15% tax and similar pro-housing measures. They would probably claim we need to help people who are heavily leveraged or other nonsense like that.

Vote for Crooked Christy (CC) at your own peril.

C.Junta
Member
C.Junta

“The bubble has popped. It does not matter who gets in”

Well, yes and no. Even if we assume that the bubble has popped, there is one thing that bothers me: how many millions of taxpayers’ money will be burned in a futile attempt to “save BC RE market”? And something is telling me that one of the candidates is pretty determined to burn a lot.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I can’t agree. Even very well-educated people working in finance believe that the market is still strong and that, while there is a pause at the upper end, while people catch their breaths after last year’s crazy run up, the lower end is selling like hotcakes and the upper end will join in again soon. All that matters is what people think. This is because all essentially of the money in the market comes from debt. Every time the market goes up, people borrow an amount equal to the rise in equity and use it to buy more (directly, or by proxy through their children and grandchildren) and so there is no limit to how high it can go.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Even very well-educated people working in finance believe that the market is still strong”

You need to change your name to naive-one. Those well educated people in finance have a vested interest to tell you the market is still strong. Even Royal LePage has called the top and forecast a 10% decline in 2017.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

No, I’m talking about buddies I do sports with. These guys aren’t trying to sell real estate. They are stock brokers. And I’m not a client.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

As Dave pointed out, the NDP will put the breaks on the runaway economy the way they usually do. There is no need for them to plan specially. They can just do what they do best, and what comes naturally to them.

Voting for the NDP is a bit like deliberately falling if you are skiing and realize that you are out of control. The result won’t be pleasant, but it will end much worse if you don’t do it. And when it is over, we can pick our selves up and ski on under control

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

so the landlord should thank the renters? so the renters should not pay for anything at all? what a bunch of freeloaders! did i read somewhere this professor sold his north van home way too early and left lots of dough on the table?

Just me
Guest
Just me

No. the landlord should pay his/her taxes, like everybody else who gets income from their wealth.
Last time I checked, the government of Canada was taking a fair share of my dividend payments and the income generated by other savings. Taxing homes should be no different.
Davidoff just stated the obvious, and of course he is right. What is strange that so many people are willing to admit it, because they are afraid to lose moiney in the process.

We need new leaders, we need people who stop lying to us right in our faces.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Don’t waste time replying to that fcuking shitbag. It is another paid provocateur, same as spaceshit.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

Read what you typed! you were saying, the landlords don’t pay taxes? Last time I checked, the Vancouver landlords even have to pay a half percent more to support the druggies, not to mention everything also on top of it.
The professor probably has became a renter, and stated the bear-obvious. Nothing the government does will be enough to satisfy the naysayers and freeloaders.
BTW, good job on the government today to approve the pipeline. Of course, the naysayers said no to that too, and want free health care, affordable housing, free drugs, ice-free-snow-free bike lanes!

Just me
Guest
Just me

Housing is taxed at a fraction of the taxation rates applied to any other wealth form in this country, and in Vancouver especially.

Home owners feel entitled to this preferential tax treatment.

Governments indulge them, in exchange for polling results.

This is the sotry in Vancouver, unless we stop it and vote CC (Crooked Christy) out.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

If CRA would enforce capitals gains evasion with jail time and deportation then maybe people will start following the law.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Oracle, why are you here typing when you should be out buying a condo?

We sorted this out. For you, it makes perfect sense to buy today. Why don’t you?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

BUT RENTERS ARE “WINNING” RIGHT GUYS?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

What do we win?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Stop posting dumb remarks like this. Hypocrite. And you tell other people to post only Vancouver condo related stuff.

specuskeptic
Member

“Stop posting dumb remarks like this. Hypocrite. ”

Hypocrites promise to leave and then keep posting.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Don’t forget the lying!

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

ABSOLUTELY WINNING, BIG TIME! Huge dividends, cash stuffed under the pillow etc…

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Winning since Spring. Remember Spring? You predicted prices to accelerate even more around that time. Remember that too?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

you mean the prediction i made before the foreign buyer tax based on the thesis that HAM is driving the market? that one?

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Foreign buyers tax was summer bra. Get your seasons right.

So you’ve been bearish since the tax?

Dec 30th
Hyper-mega-Bull
market is about to take off like never before. hold on to your hats!

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
paulb
Member
Active Member

New
157
Price Change
18
Sold
89

TI:6657

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

C. Junta – Could you care to share what NDP policies are making you hesitate to vote if Uber and the childcare tax is unimportant to you?

C.Junta
Member
C.Junta

“if Uber and the childcare tax is unimportant to you”
Where did I say that? Strike two.

As for you question, I am not sure it really matters in the context of this discussion, but anyways here are a few:

– I do not think that corporate tax increase is a panacea for budget issues (not that I am against corporate tax increase in general)
– I do not support collective bargaining in its modern form (maybe except for a few special cases)
– I am scared of dramatic minimum wage changes

May I ask why you asked?

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Thanks, I was merely curious to learn more about your position.

Dramatic minimum wage increases only serve to inflate prices of various goods IMO. By contrast, I think lowering cost of living (rents, housing, food) will help the minimum wage earners as well as the middle class.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
Regarding the “bubble has already popped” (YVR). IMO assuming anything is very dangerous. It’s one reason I don’t agree with YVR’s overconfidence and his firm stance on voting Liberal. Various governments have already shown they can keep bubbles going far longer than anyone thought possible. I have been on this blog a long time. I’ve seen how overconfident some bears have been, mocking million dollar teardowns years ago. The thesis for over 6 years has been that nothing could stop the bubble from popping. I remember how exuberant some bears were when things slowed down a bit, only to watch in dismay as it powered on for many more years. We don’t want or need the BC Liberals to pull every trick they can to sustain the bubble longer. In life and financial planning I don’t take chances based on… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

There seems to be nothing that the Liberals won’t do to keep the madness going. They are giving away billions of dollars already. They could make mortgage interest deductible on provincial taxes. Cancel all taxes for home owners. Pay down payments in full for new buyers. If there is a bust, they might use government money to buy up housing stock, in the manner of the Wheat Board. Nothing is off the table for these guys.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“There seems to be nothing that the Liberals won’t do to keep the madness going.”

The 15% foreign buyers tax was intended to keep the madness going? They came up with the first time home buyer loan because things are crashing faster than they forecast after the foreign buyers tax. Down 20% in a few months is a full on crash.

Just me
Guest
Just me

The price drop is only partly due to the tax.
If you look at the graph for sales, they started trending down in late winter or early spring 2016.
Thst is roughly the time the Chinese giverment started turning the tap off the money flows from the mainland.
The BC Lib would never (and let me stress this: never) put in place and retain any policy that significantly and persistently reduces house prices.

If you think I am wrong, here is a question: say that Crooked Christy and the BC Libs get re-elected in May; further, assume that prices in the GVRD start dropping even faster by the Summer.
What do you think they would do then? It is practically guaranteed they would (1) repeal the tax, and (2) introduce new measures to support the market using OUR tax money.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“The BC Lib would never (and let me stress this: never) put in place and retain any policy that significantly and persistently reduces house prices.”

You are saying the foreign buyers tax had zero impact and was intended to have zero impact? You should change your name to Oracle.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“If you think I am wrong, here is a question:”

It does not matter what happens next. The bubble has popped. It is not if, it is how fast. Google “pushing on a string”.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i think she will drop hints prior to election (to friends/family) that she will mothball the tax. look for a sudden and unexplained surge in sales volume beginning late Feb. (lower priced detached and some uber expensive trophy properties) imho the dip in the Vanc mkt was engineered to a large degree and could be reversed at the snap of a finger. then, of course all the RE experts will be scratching their heads as to why Toronto RE suddenly hit the wall and cooled off much like Vanc did last summer/fall as the hot money shifts back to the west coast

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Like most conspiracy theories, this gives too much credit for competence to the would-be conspirators.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

They knew foreign buyers were not a major market driver but rather a convenient boogeyman that could be safely sacrificed for cosmetic purposes.

patriotz
Member

“The 15% foreign buyers tax was intended to keep the madness going?”

Yes it was, because its goal was (as Bob Rennie himself admitted) to get Christy re-elected, so she could continue her policy of supporting the RE market at all costs. It was just a tactical retreat, and Christy is already advancing again with her interest free loans.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

once the election is over all bets are off that the tax stays in its current form

Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme

The NDP’s David Eby was making Christy Clarke look so bad (again) that she was forced to institute the tax. It was only in May 2015 when she was saying: “That’s good for first-time home buyers but not for anybody who is depending on the equity in their home to maybe get a loan or use that to finance some other projects,”
http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/05/christy-clark-says-no-taxing-foreign-real-estate-investors/

Just me
Guest
Just me

You must be reading my mind. Thanks for writing this, it spared me some typing (and a few embarassing typos).
I fully agree, of course.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“I don’t agree with YVR’s overconfidence and his firm stance on voting Liberal.”

I never said I would vote Liberal. I will wait to see the official platforms and then decide. There are lots of reasons not to vote Liberal. Also lots of reasons not to vote NDP. Hopefully someone comes up with something to vote for.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
@Dave “This City hates families, that’s why we’re closing down schools while we build towers. We punish working people and we punish businesses. You should see what some small commercial businesses have to pay in municipal taxes. Blows my mind. Taking more money from the people trying to get ahead is dumb.” The city is closing down schools due to low attendance not because they hate families. The schools have low attendance because families can’t afford to live in regions which have traditionally been affordable. I am eager to see school closure risks go down as housing becomes more affordable. If you care about families and schools what you want is lower housing prices. PS. Could you share exactly what those municipal taxes are . I am privy to our company’s tax details and I don’t see Municipal taxes as… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

Amen to that.
I could not have written it any better.
Thank you BV.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“PS. Could you share exactly what those municipal taxes are .”

Property taxes. CoV commercial tax rates are over 4 x the residential rate. A $1 million commercial property pays $13860 in annual property tax compared to $3150 for the valued residential property.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Can’t you see you are making exactly our point (and the point of Davidoff)?
What you wrote indicates we should move away some of the tax burden from business to residential property taxes.
The folks at UBC have been saying this for years. Of course, CC knows better (she kniws full well what would happen).

YVR
Guest
YVR

I was not making a point I was answering a question on what the municipal tax burden on business is. The City of Vancouver sets the business vs residential rate not CC. The city could change it anytime and actually they are making a slight adjustment each year and have been for years. It used to be a bigger differential.

Just me
Guest
Just me

The Province gives cities rebates when it changes taxes (like the HOG). They could rebalance things in a heartbeat…if only CC wanted to do it.

Bullwhip29
Guest
Bullwhip29
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Hmmn. I’d like to see more of this story.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Teranet has Canada wide prices up 0.3% in December.

Vancouver down 0.9%

Victoria and Toronto up 1.2%

15% chinaman tax not responsible for the huge disparity according to two highly respected experts on VCI blog as well as the Honourable Garth Turner.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Price to rent and price to income universally recognized as having no bearing on real estate markets.

MarKoz
Member
Active Member

All the Canadian citizens who immigrated under the Immigrant Investor Programme, and the Quebec IIP can still use foreign money to purchase as many homes as they want. Christie’s tax is a sop to the masses just like her dog-whistle “We’re going to have ICBC stop insuring cars worth more than $150K”. If foreign money wants in, it can still crash into the province like a tsunami. It isn’t (yet). There is more to this market than Christie’s carefully calculated tax.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yes, I think that is the point of being rich. You get to do what you want.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

621 65TH AVE E

Originally listed Sept 6 for 1.388, sold for 958k.

Nu Stream Realty

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Assessed $1.275M
Sold for 25% below assessed value.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

any of the transactions New Coast, Nu Stream etc are involved in must be scrutinized more closely. this is an example of deal where undisclosed cash under the table was involved.

YVR
Guest
YVR

It would not be in Nu Stream or any other realtors interest to sell a property with cash under the table. It simply sets a lower price for the next sale as well signals prices are falling which keeps people out of the market. Either way bearish and puts further downward pressure.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s quite possible that they don’t care. Sales volume is much more important for individual agencies than sales price. Being the guy who gets things sold is all that matters in a down market.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

real estate is just a vehicle to wash money for many of their clients. their list of advisory services now includes methods to avoid and/or reduce the 15% foreign tax hit. in a way lower prices (however they may be generated) will draw in more foreign money as asians just can’t resist a sale. i buy three more, my husband gonna buy three more…

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Asian thinking doesn’t work like that. They know low price mean to save tax. Maybe westerners think like that. Just saying.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Thinking driving a car and thought patterns. I’ll leave it at that.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Bingo!

It’s a huge loophole for foreign money. Locals of Asian heritage also do this to save PTT.

Europeans don’t do this because no Western Europeans want to immigrate to Canada anymore. lol. That says a lot.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You can’t just make something up ( no Western Europeans want to immigrate to Canada anymore) and then use it as proof as if it were something that you had found somewhere.

I know three guys from the UK and one girl from Poland who have got their PR in the past year. And that’s just in my running club.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

4708 BRUCE ST

Originally listed Nov 28 at 1,488,888, sold for 1.25

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Assessed $1.4M
Sold for 11% below assessed value.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Toronto housing extends surge as Vancouver slump deepens”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/toronto-housing-extends-surge-as-vancouver-slump-deepens/article33594129/

“Prices in Vancouver have been easing as sales slump, particularly in the wake of a new provincial tax on foreign buyers of Vancouver area homes.”

“Thus, prices in Vancouver slipped 0.8 per cent in December from November, marking the third straight drop for a cumulative 2.8 per cent.”

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

At this rate, we’d need seven years to get to reasonable levels.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“‘The correction has begun:’ Greater Vancouver home prices forecast to drop 8.5% in 2017”, Metro News

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/01/12/greater-vancouver-home-prices-forecast-to-drop-8-per-cent-.html

“Royal LePage is forecasting Greater Vancouver home prices to fall by 8.5 per cent in 2017 as buyers continue to grapple with a crisis of consumer confidence, according to the company’s CEO.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“New forecast says Vancouver home prices to drop in 2017 while Toronto still on the rise”, Financial Post with video

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/new-forecast-says-vancouver-home-prices-to-drop-in-2017-while-toronto-still-on-the-rise

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver Looking at 50-80% Drop in Peak Real Estate Prices? Hilliard MacBeth – Jan. 11, 2017”, Talk Digital Network

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Om1QsvUOPJI

“Canadians Getting Around New Mortgage Rules
Hilliard is author of “When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash””

20 min audio

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

If you have the time watching these kind of useless clips, why don’t you use your time wisely to earn more $$! Heck, you might even save enough to buy a Yale town condo by now.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Or you could have purchased last summer and be down 15% or more relative to the July 1 assessed value.

Listings:
1784 E 27th. Listed $998k. Assessed $1.285M (-22%)
3150 School Ave. Listed $1.15M Assessed $1.44M (-20%)
1978 Nanaimo. Listed $998k Assessed $1.26M (-21%)

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You are naive or deceitful. Ever hear of overseas sales while making it look like it was advertised locally.? Save tax and make it look like it wasn’t fraud.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Shithead, why do you care about renter’s time when you are smart owner? Aren’t you golfing or skiing right now and sailing in the afternoon while making killing with your RE investments?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

This is correct and as many times pointed out. If can’t be stopped immigration from China should be significantly reduced until Canada gets its housing shit together.

“Should the Chinese or immigrants be blamed for our housing crisis? Why not? Many of the expensive properties are purchased by people with Chinese surnames. “

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
You didn’t read it, did you? Can’t you recognize the sarcasm is the sentences that you quoted? Even the stuff you cite in support of your theories shows your theories to be without merit. From the article: “Statistics Canada data show that, from 2011 to 2015, the housing start in B.C. was 140,721 units. For a family of 2, these units could house over 280,000 people. For a family of 3, it could house over 420,000. That is 2.5 times more than the total immigrants and in-migrants landed. Studies indicate that in the 90s, the average family size of immigrants was from 3.2 to 4, depending on the period they arrived. Thus, immigrants and in-migrants did not contribute to the shortage of housing stock; they are contributors to the economic growth during that period. …. For those who want to… Read more »
Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Please, don’t baffle Combat Roach with logic and reason.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Those numbers don’t include the more than 1 million temps (and growing) in Canada at any given time.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

And that’s why the Statscan head resigned. He couldn’t stand the data manipulation.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

True, those damned temps are buying everything. And can you blame them? Who wants to pick fruit or work in Tim Hortons when you could buy a condo in Vancouver and let the money take care of itself.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Where’s your upvotes? Hahaha. Outed.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Higher mortgage rates? They’re already here, and they hurt Rob Carrick The Globe and Mail Published Thursday, Jan. 12, 2017 12:21PM EST Last updated Thursday, Jan. 12, 2017 12:21PM EST http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/higher-mortgage-rates-theyre-already-here-and-they-hurt/article33595514 We’re starting to get a picture of what mortgage rate increases do to household budgets. If you’re buying an average-priced home in Vancouver, the increase in five-year fixed-rate mortgage costs over the past two months could add up to something like an extra $1,824 a year; in Toronto, you’re looking at $1,584. In a small market like Saint John, the extra cost would be close to $350. The biggest question in housing today is what will happen when mortgage rates rise from the historic lows they’ve been at in recent years. We saw the very beginning of this in the final months of 2016 and the results are significant.… Read more »
Yunak
Member
Yunak

Condo King Bob Rennie’s abdication as chief Liberal fundraiser raises questions

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/1/condo-king-bob-rennies-abdication-chief-liberal-fu/

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

being done for optics reasons only. no doubt he’ll remain involved in a big way. first time buyer loan program has his fingerprints all over it

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Not really. Krusty is just doing what the dogs are baying for. Cut off the top end, help the kids into the low end.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

yup…all optics. Once in bed always in bed

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

http://www.news1130.com/2017/01/12/generation-x-exodus-survey-finds-want-sell-home-leave/

“Potentially losing 40 per cent of the management age population in the city of Vancouver could have serious implications for the future of Vancouver’s economy,” warns Chris Fair, president of Resonance Consultancy.

Vancouver: no families, no children, no workers, no hope.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Have no fear, falling populations are great for correcting house prices.

Yunak
Member
Yunak

All those, in the meantime accumulated, housewives, homemakers and officials can take a crash course and quickly become managers. They already know business quite well and language isn’t a big deal anyway…

specuskeptic
Member

Love how various vested groups are engaging in some CYA. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/royal-lepage-report-q4-2016-1.3932424

As the math teacher says, “show your work”. How (other than rectally) was that 8.5% derived?

patriotz
Member

It’s what I call “predicting the past”. Just project the last few months over the next year. Since RE cycles move so slowly you’ll be right about 90% of the time.

Superfly
Guest
Superfly

Also known as Aftcasting.

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