BC, data, economy, prices, renting, supply, west side

West Van population slip sliding away.

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According to BC Statistics the community of West Van is seeing a steady population decline.

According to a B.C. Statistics report, the population in West Vancouver dropped by 2.1 per cent between 2015 and 2016 with just under 41,000 people now calling that community home.

The downturn in West Vancouver is the largest year-over-year decline of any B.C. municipality with at least 15,000 residents. West Vancouver has been in a slow and steady decline since 2011, which doesn’t follow the current trend of most municipalities across the province that have seen a steady increase in their populations.

So whats driving the decline? Housing prices? Aging Population? Lack of Bars and Restaurants? Lack of rentals? The mayor is concerned about all those factors.

“So we need more rental accommodation so when our young people are graduating and want to stay in West Van, have a place to rent.”

The business community, Smith says, is also suffering from the lack of vibrancy.

“We don’t have the bars and restaurants to create any vibrancy in the community. It’s a very serious situation,” Smith explained.

Read the full article at Globalnews.

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Jerry Boyle

Last year, February I think it was, a friend turned 50 and rented a West Van mansion for the party on AirBnB. Three stories of cheap opulence, up by the tree line, with panoramic windows wrapping every level, looking back out over Vancouver. We were there from about 5 pm until late, so from sunset on. The block was lined with new mansions, and all through the night their windows were dark. It was like a preview of the Rapture. That’s the future of Vancouver proper, if nothing changes. It might seem like a good thing to a civic politician, I suppose. Easy to balance the budget — the owners can afford their property taxes, and probably don’t need much in the way of city services. No-one around to make a fuss at council meetings. Easy money, if you don’t… Read more »

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Fear monger

Never understood why Paul would bother with this blog frequented by basement dwelling losers.
Go to his website, and you see 3 white guys in their 40s flashing their artificially whitened dentures, selling 4 million plus homes.
Must have some twisted, perverted humor.

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Oracle

They all own. And aren’t running to the exits. Wonder why.

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fomostyle

Do you remember when Paul moved out to the maritimes a few years back ?

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Newcomer

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/world-s-biggest-real-estate-buyers-are-suddenly-short-on-cash

”In London, Chinese citizens who clamored to purchase flats at the city’s tallest apartment tower three months ago are now struggling to transfer their down payments. In Silicon Valley, Keller Williams Realty says inquiries from China have slumped since the start of the year. And in Sydney, developers are facing “big problems” as Chinese buyers pull back, according to consultancy firm Basis Point.”

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southseacompany

“CMHC: Problematic conditions continue to linger in Canada’s housing market”, BNN video

http://www.bnn.ca/real-estate/video/should-we-be-concerned-about-a-toronto-housing-bubble~920253

“Bob Dugan, chief economist at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, joins BNN’s Greg Bonnell for a look at the latest CMHC Housing Market Assessment and why the likes of Victoria, Abbotsford, B.C. and Hamilton, ON are feeling the grunt of Toronto and Vancouver’s escalating home prices.”

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paulb

New
161
Price Change
24
Sold
118

TI:7645

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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Newcomer

Looks like a rush to the entrances.

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goofus ottawais

entrance to your Bathouse.

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Yikes

What did 4089 Marine we dr just sell for??

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LS in Arbutus

What’s the website that shows the price drops to date? I can’t find it. And…. was thinking today, how illiquid this market has/will become. It’s simply (almost) impossible to afford to move in Vancouver. If you got in before prices rose, great, but then you’re essentially stuck unless you want to downsize. If you’re in a $2 million bungalow, to get anything much better, you have to send anywhere from what, $500k to probably more like $1 million, plus realtor fees and property transfer tax. So you’re stuck, unless you want to take on another huge mortgage after you just paid down your initially (expensive) house at pre-bubble prices. Say you paid $500k for it. That’s STILL a lot of money. You can see how things eventually stop as people simply can’t afford to trade up or even if they… Read more »

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Just me

http://myrealtycheck.ca/

And yes, for an appreciating market to keep functioning (that is, to keep allocating the traded goods to the people that value them most) you need an ever increasing amount of liquidity.

Essentially, even though people who own homes have made some additional money, the price differential relative to more expensive homes has also gone up in absolute terms. This means that the resources they accrued by owning are not sufficient to make up for the extra step. Eventually the market comes to a standstill. The only things that can start this market up again are: (i) lower interest rates; (ii) robust inflows of money from mainland China.

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Newcomer

You need more market entrants (aka, sacrificial lambs) tat the bottom. Clark has tried lending them money, but there are other things she could do, such as giving them a larger grant or forgiving their provincial taxes. I wouldn’t rule anything out. But once downward momentum has built, however, there is nothing the government can do, as has been demonstrated many times over, around the world.

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Kim

Agreed. We are actually looking to move up to a house. We can sell our current home, which we have about 800k-1m equity in depending on how much we can get. I have no idea how much I will get as nobody knows how much my home is actually worth. We don’t want to sell any of our stocks so to move up, so we’re looking at a 1.2m mortgage for a 2m dollar home (not including fees, taxes, moving expenses, etc.) We can afford this at current rates but I don’t want to overpay. Again, I have no idea whether that 2m dollar home we’re looking at is actually worth 2m. Or 2.5m. Or 1.5m. Our home is actually quite adequate and we don’t NEED to move. So we stay and our realtor does work for us but gets… Read more »

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Newcomer

Leaving aside speculation, the value of an asset is the amount of money that would pay you as much if invested somewhere else, no? So find what the rent would be and crunch the numbers and you’ve got the market value. What it is worth to you is something different.

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Just me

More signs that the direction of the wind is changing in China. They are serious about stopping outflows (and no money laundering service by Canadian lawyers will be able to counteract this). http://in.reuters.com/article/china-forex-outflows-idINKBN15A1CJ “China’s foreign exchange regulator on Thursday issued new guidelines aimed at helping curb capital outflows from the country and boosting foreign currency inflows, in the latest step to ease pressure on the yuan currency.” “Firms who want to remit foreign exchange profits equivalent or above $50,000 out of China must submit resolutions from board of directors on profit distribution, alongside tax documents and audited financial statements, according to the new rules.” I think this will be a more effective curb than anything so far: imagine these two-penny corrupt bureaucrat and their proxy firms submitting actual financial details about the money being transferred. That is a big no… Read more »

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Dave

It’s hard to know what goes on in China without having a good inside source. I know realtors who focus on that market and it’s definitely gone quiet for them, but I haven’t asked pointed questions about currency controls… which they might have some good anecdotes.

I wonder if the election of Trump has affected how aggressive they are in keeping monetary control. You’d think China would want more investment from the private sector with a potential decline in the US export market due to Trump policies.

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Newcomer

They may not want further currency devaluation because it would give Trump cover for labeling them a currency manipulator, which in turn gives him authority to impose sanction without going through congress. I don’t see playing nice being much of an advantage with Trump, but it is one possible explanation.

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Newcomer

Could be. Certainly another nudge in the right direction.

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Dave

A trade spat between the US and China will certainly affect us here. I would expect that we get flooded with cheap Chinese imports. I’m not sure how that could affect real estate but it’s possible it could increase the flow of money from China as we buy more stuff from them (it could be another way of getting money into our country).

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Newcomer

I don’t see Canada getting cozier with China if China is on the outs with the US. If they fight, my guess is that Trump would make giving China the cold shoulder part of the trade deal that replaces NAFTA (which pretty well died today). Think, Mean Girls.

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Just me

I sure don’t want us to become a harbour and safe heaven for Chinese multimillionaires escaping the US.

Knowing Christy, she is probably licking her chops and hoping we get some more fresh money from China. She absolutely loves that, her constituents would vote her in office if she could pull that off.

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goofus ottawais

christy’s fangs are dripping with fresh foreign blood every day since she cheated on the father of her kid”

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Pipa

Translate please

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bullwhip29

CMHC issues alert for Victoria housing, warns of ‘overvaluation’
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/cmhc-issues-alert-for-victoria-housing/article33776490

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bullwhip29

Speculation likely still driving up house prices in B.C., Toronto, Hamilton, CMHC says
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-market-conditions-1.3953358

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bullwhip29

Jack Ma’s Ant Financial Buys MoneyGram for $880 Million
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/jack-ma-s-ant-financial-close-to-buying-moneygram-wsj-says

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Best place on meth

The asshole who got rich stealing American ideas is now using that money to buy American companies.

Typical locust modus operandi.

Trump will deal with him.

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southseacompany

“Canada’s biggest bank warns of possible cooling measures coming to Toronto housing market”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/canadas-biggest-bank-warns-of-possible-cooling-measures-coming-to-toronto-housing-market

“Royal Bank of Canada warned on Thursday that policymakers are more likely to introduce measures to cool the Toronto housing market after home sales hit a record high in 2016.”

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goofus ottawais

MSM like Financialpost can flock off to ANTarctica, take their robot servants with them… they can run, but cant hide

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southseacompany

“CMHC keeps red flag on Canada’s housing market, with several cities still too hot”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cmhc-keeps-red-flag-on-canadas-housing-market-with-several-cities-still-too-hot

““Price acceleration in Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto and Hamilton indicates that home price growth may be driven by speculation as it is outpacing what economic fundamentals like migration, employment and income can support,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist with CMHC. “

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Dave

I think foreign ownership is a symptom of the larger issue of building a community. There is more or less no support for creating density in West Vancouver across a wider range of incomes. While it might not be obvious from the Highway, there is actually a lot of densification that could be done. Of course, that won’t happen. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out in Vancouver. I think the next stage of the housing crisis will be the loss of family owned and small commercial businesses. I think it will get harder and harder to keep afloat as wages for people working in the City have to be high, Commercial taxes are unbelievable and disposable income for a lot of people is going to get squeezed as so much goes to housing. We’ve seen… Read more »

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Kim

Agreed. West Van and North Van don’t want density. It boggles my mind that you have a three lane (for both directions!) aging Lions Gate Bridge that they will not replace. Apparently people on the north shore would rather sit in traffic for hours to get to Vancouver for any services. They could easily have extended skytrain over and increased density but the citizens that live there now don’t want it and never will have any of it.
The sad thing is the government will not do anything about this as they can brag about property values and it fills their coffers. The lying Libs are all bought off by realtors and developers. The onlyindustry/businesses Vancouver is known for is Lululemon and real estate–kind of a sad indictman on this place.

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Dave

The demographics of North Vancouver show a lot of older boomers and younger teenagers, but not many working families. It got that way mostly due to lack of affordable options.

From what I recall, sales of condos along Marine in North Van haven’t been as robust as you would expect (I’m talking before this past year), which might have a lot to do with traffic and transit issues.

At least North Van has pushed for densification.

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fomostyle

Hhhhmmmmm. Younger teenagers. Doesn’t that Imply working age parents??

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Just me

“We’ve hollowed out our communities. And our elected officials and bureaucrats are oblivious to it.”

They are NOT oblivious to it. Politicians are getting re-elected on the premise that they will do nothing. Many voters are benefiting from this situation and politicians know and exploit this fact.

Blaming politicians for trying to be re-elected is naive. We should start voting for change, and not re-elect the BC Libs.

A vote for the BC Libs is a vote for the status quo and for even higher house prices in the future. The problem is that many voters actually like that!

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Dave

Don’t ascribe to malice what can be attributed to incompetence…

I have met many of these people behind closed doors and believe me, they have been drinking the koolaid. A lot of them actually view high prices as a validation to their political beliefs. They truly believe that our prices are high because Vancouver is a ‘progressive livable City.’

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Just me

How can I not attribute to malice. Our own Premier Christy Clark said not long ago: “We are not considering policies that would seriously reduce the level of home prices. This would put in danger the hard-earned equity that property owners have accumulated so far”.

This is not incompetence. This is Christy Clark telling home-owners: vote for me and I will make sure that policy will aid and abet the continuous appreciation of RE. Her foreigners tax is windo dressing, and likely to be reverted if she gets re-elected (at the first sign of serious and lasting crash).

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tokyorealestateman

vancouver is a very nice place–i like it a lot–it s contact with the ocean is second to none in the english speaking world–but my wife doesnt like it–she thinks it has no style–i agree with her on that point

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squeak

These officials are marching to their own drum. Definitely disconnected from the realities of the people.
And forget about not being able to move into the north shore, it is more like young people/families are in planning stage or seriously considering of exiting Vancouver/vicinities including Victoria, very likely BC altogether. They are not stupid, the BC arithmetic does not add up. There is no future here. The housing market and job market in BC is a complete FUBAR.

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Dave

I think the people who leave are smart. Problems created over decades don’t resolve themselves quickly. Whatever price drops we get now and not likely to be significant enough to change affordability. 80% of unaffordable is still unaffordable.

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tokyorealestateman

prices wont be moving much–this is the new world–people are aware of the best places in the world–social media has intertwined with real estate–if interested in tokyo specifically shibuya real estate please do contact me–

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Kim

Oh lordy. What happened to the “we have too many people who want to live here which is why our prices are so expensive” thesis?

How many homes are empty in West Van?

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Abdul Lahazi

Half are empty. Apparently the mayor of W.V. thinks that adding more rentals will solve the problem. That is someone who doesn’t see the bigger picture.

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Shut It Down Already

What would you suggest the mayor of West Van do?

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Slava

These Canadian Boomers are in denial.
Talk and no action for 30 years. We need a Canada First Trump!

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Hyper-mega-Bull

you choose to ignore all the municipalities with growing populations and focus on the single anomalous exception. that’s an excellent example of bear logic. good work!

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goofus ottawais

movin to West Van soon.. anyone got a parking spot for my van?

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