It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all! Here are some recent links to kick off the chat:
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
““Contrary to the conventional wisdom, there hasn’t been any macroeconomic catalyst or trigger for this abrupt slowdown. The new provincial foreign buyer tax also has little to do with this,”
“We simply think the housing bubble has burst. Housing bubbles are, of course, inherently unstable because they are largely driven by unpredictable investor mania.””
Madani sums it up fairly well – There’s no rational trigger for an irrational market
Madani opines that the foreign buyers tax in BC had little or no influence on the situation. Yet he does note that the overheated lower mainland has been abandoned for the (now rapidly overheating) Toronto market.
Dear Mr. Madani: Other than the local job markets and real economies (which have not changed materially in either place) , the key economic difference in those two markets is the recent government taxation change for foreign buyers. And the timing of the demand change coincides exactly with the implementation of the tax.
Economists are worse than useless. They are idiots.
Economists are not even suitable to made into animal feed.
Premieres are though!
He has vested interests.
My Absorption rate chart shows a continuing plunge:
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html
Based on total listing counts (as opposed to new listings added) we are up to 5 months of inventory and only 20% of it gets sold per month.
Some of the recent repricing of listings shows that vendors and their agents are still guessing at what market value is.
I suspect that vendors would like to see all those unoccupied units hit the market sooner rather than later… the more people who are involved with setting prices, the sooner we might be able to stop guessing what market value is.
Of course there is always a fundamental approach to value; that would be refreshing to see.
Thanks, Brian. I appreciate the time you spend on these charts. They make it easier to see things in context.
House bust aye? Someone better tell these buyers near the truly problematic social housing unit called Marguerite Ford. These are townhouse units that sold for 750K each plus whatever the G or HST was back in 2010-2011. So now
256 West 1sr Ave. Ask: 1.250M. Sold: 1.320M. That must have taken a bidding war.
Then there are all the new builds coming up along our North-South highways into the city. This not too special one along Cambie, well the assignor has given up a little. He’s decided to sell for more than $1,000/sq ft and I think he’s free from some kind of tax. But I can’t remember which one:
201-4139 Cambie. Ask: 855K. Sold: 832,500. 818 sq ft
US house bust huh? Someone should tell those buyers of houses in Detroit for 1000 dollars in 1910. They just sold for 40k.
I have to say I have become a big fan of Ian Young and of the South China Morning Post. Ironic how the SCMP seems to be the only ones who have the balls to tell it like it is. His latest piece on Mayor Moonbeam was fantastic. I had no idea that hypocrite has come out now saying “if only I had known” about the capital inflow problems. Yet only a year ago he was branding everyone a racist who would suggest such a thing. The mayor is a tool.
Ian Young is great. Like Tomlinson at the G&M. Some of the (very few) journalists who are not scared to call things like they are.
In the face of this public criticism, I am really curious to see how Clark and De Jong will go about weakening the foreign buyers’ tax. People are realizing their scam and an election is close.
The good thing about Ian Young is that he makes it quite obvious that this crisis is about money (laundering of illicit funds) and not about race. He is doing a fantastic job for the wider community.
Absolutely agree
Don’t forget about Sam Cooper who blow a lot of lids off with his stories. Hats off to these three!
Yup. Sam Cooper is also highly deserving. Journalism as a form of service.
Ian Young is great. Like Tomlinson at the G&M. Some of the (very few) journalists who are not scared to call things like they are.
It is nothing to do with being “scared”. It is a combination of incompetence (the media report what someone tells them) and most have drank the kool aid. You can’t have a bubble without most people being sucked in. Reporters are no different from your neighbours, family and co workers who believe prices can only go higher. Young and Tomlinson are smarter and have not been sucked in.
It’s important to remember that. Almost nothing comes about through conspiracy. Basically ever dumb-assed action out there is done with open eyes and genuine belief.
I don’t buy it. It is their job not to be sucked in.
Now, that’s funny. Not only is their first job to be sucked in, but their second job is to suck everyone else in. The media is, and always has been, suck-in central. How did you think sucking in happens?
May I remind you that it was journalists who took down Nixon?
You might want to read up on that.
Enlighten me professor!
Go read. It’s good for you.
It has everything to do with being scared. In oarticular, with being scared to be called racists.
Expressing negative views about corrupt chinese millionaires is frowned upon by the higher powers and mainstream press. They silence dissent by telling people that every disagreement is race-based.
These guys took the heat.
Here is Horgan’s interview. People should listen to what he has to say before shooting prejudiced comments.
https://www.facebook.com/VancouverSun/videos/10154313735867083/
People should listen to what he has to say before shooting prejudiced comments.
Sorry couldn’t get past the carbon tax increase where the NDP plan to jack up the tax, then instead of giving an equal amount back in reduced income taxes to working people as is done now, they will spend the money on transit and give cheques to low income people. HAM (low income) will enjoy those free cheques and if Translink doesn’t waste every dollar the NDP gives them I guess we can look forward increased housing prices around the transit projects (transit spending = gift to developers).
You must be in a drunken stupor if you think that the NDP id not net negative on house prices.
And there is amount of extra tax they can charge me that would make me worse off relative ti 5 more years of Christy Ckark. Five more years of Christy would probably make many people effectively homeless (rent will go up even more).
I will take more carbon tax any day. It will go up no matter the government, it is federally mandated.
I don’t understand why the fuck you and YVR keep trying to convince each other how to vote.
He’s going to vote Liberal and you’re going to vote NDP.
Period. Done. Finished.
It’s absolutely frustrating seeing two people wasting their time as well as everyone else’s on a futile debate where there is zero chance of anyone changing their mind.
I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. Just pointing out the NDPs many flaws. Next time don’t speak until spoken to.
Don’t speak until spoken to?
Did you notice I wasn’t speaking to you?
You are just another shill for the rich (who you like to call “working people”), who hates governments doing anything to help the less fortunate. And you pretend that the NDP wants to help rich immigrants who don’t pay their fair share of taxes, when in reality the NDP wants to make them pay their fair share.
In other words you’re just like Christy.
NDP “wants”? Can you please link one official NDP policy which will make these rich immigrants pay one dime more? All I have seen is a carbon tax change which will send these wealthy (but low income) immigrants a cheque, provide free day care and free MSP all paid for by middle class income earners. There is no NDP policy on taxing the wealthy who don’t pay taxes.
I have already linked this directly below one of your posts. I know you have seen it, but I want to remind the rest of the board what a liar you are.
http://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/id/lc/billscurrent/5th40th:m209-1
A liar? Wow. If you can’t win an argument resort to name calling. That was a defeated bill which they knew would be defeated as all opposition bills are. There is nothing in the NDP official policy NOW that states they will bring in this legislation if elected. I do hope they add this to their policy, although, there are many loop holes and the tax amount is not stated.
If you write incorrect statements, you are, techincally, a liar.
That does not qualify as name calling.
That is incorrect, though that does not make you a liar. In addition to the statement being untrue, the speaker has to believe it to be untrue and has to have the intention of deceiving.
You might want to bookmark http://www.merriam-webster.com and
wikipedia.org
It’s easy to look things up before you say them.
YVR is definitely either lying or else in denial. Neither makes his position or opinions more palatable or his posts more credible.
Saying someone is “in denial” is just another way of saying that they do not believe what you strongly believe. If you stop to consider all the odd things that people believe, I don’t find anything odd about YVR’s beliefs. I make a very clear distinction between YVR, who I don’t always agree with and, for example, Oracle, who is indeed a liar.
You may be right that it is useless. But YVR is the typical guy who is penny wise and pound foolish.
He wants people to believe that electing Horgan would be the expensive option. Hell no, 5 more years of Christy Clark would bankrupt us all.
Daily review of housing bubble news: Feb 10 – https://youtu.be/PmmD5tgoJwo
These summaries are good. Keep ’em coming.
Two consecutive 80% sell/list ratios.
Am I reading too much into this? Are there any significant discounts?
Several people mentioned that condos are still going like hotcakes. Townhouses and SFHs?
Data, info and insights greatly appreciated.
Yes – still not enough data to extrapolate or ring alarm bells. Post easter is generally a starting point for extrapolating IMVHO… and even then, GIANT grain of salt.
I do. But prices are picking up according to Zolo as well.
It’s Spring, sales are picking up as they always do. Christie’s free down payment scheme likely caused sales from January to be pushed back. The YOY numbers for detached are still consistent with last Fall as sales are still down roughly 70 percent.
Am I reading too much into this?
Sub $700K condos are in bidding wars where anything above is plummeting and going 10% below asking which is already 10% plus below assessed. At some point the two will cross and we will have lots of inventory below $700K.
Sub 700 condos are in the range of your beloved Christy Clark help to buy.
“Two consecutive 80% sell/list ratios.
Am I reading too much into this?”
Two consecutive days of sales in the 80’s.
Sales and listings are low.
9% of West Van homes not occupied by PR or Citizens as per statscan.
They’re surprised the population there isn’t booming when they don’t count these 9% in the stats?
8.2% of all Vancouver houses occupied by non PR/Citizens. In other words foreigners. Source:
http://www.nsnews.com/news/statcan-data-shows-north-shore-population-slightly-up-1.9771546
Is it any surprise what’s happening to our housing stock? Especially coupled with the fact that they don’t count non PR/Citizens in official population stats.
These people aren’t even immigrants. WTF is Vancouver going to become?? 25% Foreign, 50% PR, 25% Citizens??
Oracle, are you a genuine split personality or do you just like playing other characters for fun?
New name, same character…. over and over and over and over…. Gaslighting doesn’t work over the interwebs.
Peter, from the way you talk, I’m guessing you are from Surrey. That is a great buying opportunity at the moment, you know. Prices there are headed for the moon. Have you invested yet?
They might have work permits, though. We will let them buy some more.
So how does that 8.2% compare to other cities worldwide? Oh that’s right, you’ve no fucking clue.
Also isn’t that number about the same (a bit less in fact) than the stats concerning foreign real estate buyers? As in, foreigners are slightly less likely to buy than locals?
Thanks for the update “Peter” and welcome to the board. #sockpuppetsmatter
I’m also really curious as to your thought’s on the Langley area specifically, have any of you been following it? Is it me or have Langley prices actually been going up for detached homes?
The idiot premiere is now eligible to be charged with Public Mischief, an offense punishable by up to 5 years in prison.
Personally, I’d like to see her executed for treason.
Probably not. This Province is full of morons who practice self-harm
SHOCK UK Snow radar: Whole of Britain to be blanketed by HEAVY SNOW by Sunday
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/765883/UK-snow-weekend-forecast-news-radar-heavy-snow-Britain
We aren’t alone
Damn you, global warming!!
Damn you to hell!!!
What forces do you think are responsible for moving all that water into the sky?
Can you phrase that question in a way that isn’t retarded?
Specifically which part don’t you understand?
It would be better to ask if ANYONE understands your idiotic way of speaking.
Hello? Anyone?
Does anyone out there speak retard?
Meth, just because you don’t have a science background, don’t assume that what doesn’t make sense to you doesn’t make sense to anyone. Could you not be satisfied with the schoolyard bullying you did when you were twelve and, now that you are an adult, quit picking on other people just because you think they are smarter than you?
Ok, we’ve found someone who speaks retard!
Thanks for the non-explanation, asshole.
I’m not going to talk about climate on a real estate blog. You could always go study. A day or two of reading would be enough for you to understand what he was saying. But what the deal with being a douchebag? Is there an upside to it?
What’s happening with the Airbnb ban in Vancouver?
Has moonbeam let that one slide?
Perhaps too many homeowners using AirBnB to pay their mortgages?
Do you think that hypothesis passes the smell test?
Maybe moonbeam is actually dead but “city” plays he is well and alive, like Weekend at Bernie’s? They just don’t know what to do with corpse.
Whispers writes that Developers threatened to withhold political donations unless foreign buyers tax watered down: http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2017/02/cynicism-stand-aside-moonbeam-krusty.html
OSC serves Home Capital Group with enforcement notice over disclosure of problems with applications.
The notice is in connection with the company’s disclosure of the impact of falsified income information found on some loan applications, and remedial steps taken.
Anybody here still long HCG?
Patriotz shorted them in, like, 2012 but he won’t admit it.
Big corporate donors give big to the B.C. Liberals
…However, the largest group by far among top donors to the Liberals are property developers: 21 are in the top 50.
These developers include the Aquilini family, which also own the Canucks, in the No. 2 spot ($1.43 million); the Adera Group ($1.1 million), started by Ken Mahon; Wesbild ($929,576), owned by Future Shop founder Hassan Khosrowshahi; and Peter Wall and nephew Bruno Wall ($914,425), who own and manage Wall Financial Corp.
The top 50 list also includes Polygon, Concord Pacific, the Beedie Group, Onni, the Redekops, the Ilichs and the Bosas.
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/big-corporate-donors-give-big-to-the-b-c-liberals
I’m so happy the Canucks are a garbage team.
Fuck the Aquilini family.
Hilarious, this piece of dogshit that is considered the leader of BC accuses her opponent of being a criminal, then after days of sinking deeper into the mire finally gives in and apologizes….ON HIS VOICEMAIL!
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/clark-leaves-voicemail-apology-after-blaming-breach-on-ndp-1.3279828
“Hello, you’ve reached the voicemail of John Horgan, leader of the BC NDP party.
I’m not able to take your call right now but please leave a message and I will get back to you as soon as possible.”
——————————————————————————————————————–
John?…..John?……It’s..uhmm..Christy.
Listen, about that hacking stuff I said about you….I just wanted to say that I…uhmmm…I …I applegize, ok?
Please call me back, ok?
Ok? Call me, please?
I’m waiting!
LOL !!!
I’m officially banned but VPN helps.
China outflows being strangled. Now is time to go in for kill and strangle market.
Kill china illlegal money, keep 15%tax, end of YVR bubble.
Newcomer and YVR ultimatum to Admin.: “either we stay or Oracle stays. “
Just go with “Neckbeard” as a handle and you will be sending a message to the readership that you’re at least trying to be honest…
Another reason YVR real estate is doomed is no White Europeans want to immigrate here. It’s all Asians and South Asians.
Like the USA will allow this shitshow to continue without putt
Putting up a wall at the northern border.
You misspelled “Putin”
>>Housing is particularly prone to bubbles because, in contrast with other products, we seem to want it more when it is expensive and less when it is cheap. And no matter how many times we look out an airplane window to see vast acres of emptiness, we somehow still believe that land is a great investment because nobody is making more of it.<<
Has Premier Christy Clark had her enough’s enough scandal
If Premier Christy Clark loses this spring’s provincial election, she may look back on this week with bitter regret. It may have been the point when the public said enough – enough of the deceit, enough of the partisan game playing, enough of the cynical politics that voters abhor and leave them shaking their heads in disgust.
Also, Horgan gave a good impression to a lot of voters who weren’t really aware of him until now. Her lies just rolled off his back. A sign of a strong leader. I expect to see some positive polling numbers for him.
People vote with their wallets. It is about jobs and the economy. People won’t even remember this come election time but they will remember if they are working and they know they do not want to pay higher taxes. If the NDP wants to win they need to figure out increasing taxes, killing jobs through green initiatives, more social programs and increasing the size of government is not what most voters want. Many voters do want a change but NDP policy is flawed and outdated. That is why they have lost 4 elections in a row and it looks like this one will be no different.
What jobs? Minimum wage jobs? We have one of the lowest earnings averages in the country.
Good jobs are lacking, but you can move to BC and become a really cool west coast barista.
Our economy sucks, if one looks beyond appearances. The BC Libs have borrowed heavily off the books. They don’t tax developers nearly enough. And their job creation record (for good psying jobs) is poor, to say the least.
But go on and report more inexact and untrue things…it is fashionable nowadays.
Its true. I hate Christy Clark but I remember the 1990’s with Harcourt and Clark and the NDP has not changed. I know my taxes will immediately go up and I (and the province) will get nothing for it.
If the NDP wanted my vote they would run on a campaign in which they would make do with the tax revenue they have and not campaign on raising taxes.
Voting what your wallet means getting rid of Christy Clark.
How much would you spend in extra taxes? A few thousands at most?
How much would you spend in extra housing costs? Several tens (or hundreds) of thousands.
Penny wise, pound foolish.
I’m renting with a 5 yr lease.
Why not month to month?
How much would you spend in extra taxes? A few thousands at most? How much would you spend in extra housing costs?
I will spend zero on extra housing costs because with housing I have a choice to buy or not and a choice to keep renting which is fine with me. WIth taxes under the NDP you will have no choice but to pay more. There is also no guarantee housing will be cheaper under the NDP but it is guaranteed taxes will be higher.
Feb. 10 sold in Van West, someone still has the money (bank loans?):
1. 3643 W 10TH AVENUE, Kitsilano, listed $2,168,000, assessed $2,382,000
2. 128 W 47TH AVENUE, Oakridge, listed $2,495,000, assessed $2,587,000
3. 2991 ALMA STREET, Point Grey, listed $3,780,000, assessed $4,410,000
4. 4596 W 12TH AVENUE, Point Grey, listed $4,200,000, assessed $3,877,200
2991 ALMA STREET sold for 3,625,000
4596 W 12TH AVENUE sold for 3,950,000
Bank Loans? LMAO.
Sale history:
1. 3643 W 10TH AVENUE,
Sale Date February 21, 2011
Sale Price $1,190,000
2. 128 W 47TH AVENUE,
Sale Date July 16, 2009
Sale Price $1,070,000
3. 2991 ALMA STREET,
Sale Date April 4, 2011
Sale Price $2,718,000
4. 4596 W 12TH AVENUE,
Sale Date March 6, 2011
Sale Price $2,428,888
128 W 47th was renovated.
S&P500 in 2009 was at its low point, about 600-700. It’s 2316 now. Factoring exchange rate, and dividends, you’re up even more. (And I’m not even including the fees to buy and sell and renovate a house)
Sorry, not interested.
Chinese buyers are fewer but not out.
“The global implications are dire,” said Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson of the unrest in the United States. “But it may result in more workers coming to Vancouver to be part of the boom here in a city that welcomes immigrants with open arms.”
January stats for the last 5 years: https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/5ta4vg/vancouver_real_estate_stats_for_the_past_5_years/
There Are 66,719 Empty Mansions In Vancouver!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-11/there-are-66719-empty-mansions-vancouver
And we are talking about lack of housing, no land for building and affordability crisis.
Go Developers Go!!
you are winning!
dont quit now
no one likes a quitter!!
So my guess was high. That’s only enough to cover the next five years of growth if they stop building now.
You really believe those homes are empty?
#naive
Yes. The ones on the west side are totally desrted. Entire blocks with no lights on at 8pm or 9pm.
Oh, hey Oracle!
You keep missing a key detail: these homes are not coming back on the market any time soon. Thei ain’t selling them. They have been removed quasi-permanetly from the pool of local housing.
We’ll see.
From the linked article,more confirmation of what we have known for quite some time:
One year ago, when we first started discussing the Vancouver housing bubble, which as we first speculated – and was later confirmed – was the result of Chinese oligarch money-launderers parking “hot cash” in this offshore housing market (at least until a 15% property tax on foreign purchases made Seattle the new Vancouver), we said that Vancouver houses had become the de facto new Swiss bank account, and because of that the houses – once purchased – would remain a highly overprized, if vacant tribute to China’s soaring capital outflows
Took A YEAR ONLY here to figure out that it was laundered Chinese money?
General public have known for a decade.
Stats for the whole country. Compare to Vancouver CMA.
Your point being?
Well for example Kingston appears to an unoccupied rate of about 12%. How come?
And Kingston is a reasonable comparable to Vancouver?
Well I don’t think it has a lot of rich foreigners buying houses and leaving them empty. But it does have a lot of something else that Vancouver has a lot of.
Kingston has pensioners and snowbirds. Vancouver has massive white Mercedes SUVs and Range Rovers being driven by what appear to be single mothers with no job and no income.
Fair comparison.
How about comparing stats rather than your biased. observations?
Even by zerohedge standards, the headline is ridiculous. Statscan’s count is all unoccupied dwellings, not “mansions”, in Vancouver CMA accounting for 6.5% of all dwellings.
Mansions or not, this stock of housing will be out of the market for the foreseeable future. No rental tax will convince those buyers to liquidate, it will be just a cost of doing business.
They did not buy housing, they bought safe deposit boxes.
First of all you are assuming that all these dwellings are individually titled. They could be secondary suites, half duplexes or units in multiple unit rentals. Second note that some of them are properties awaiting sale or rental, or owner-occupied dwellings where the owner is away. Also note that AirBnB rentals will show up as “unoccupied” in the census.
Bottom line is that there are many other scenarios than rich guy buys house to put money in and leaves it empty.
I am not assuming anything. I live in Vancouver and I regularly go for walks around the city. On the west side, homes are pitch dark: entire streets with no visible signs of occupancy.
I cannot quantify how many of the 66,000 homes are actually investments by rich millionaires. But I can see first hand that, on the west side, there is certainly a heck of a lot of those. Certainly more than a few thousands. And those units are virtually out of the market.
I am not making this stuff up. Let me add: the more we come up with fanciful alternative explanations, the longer the problem will persist.
Some people switch off the lights when they go out.
They must be coordinating to go out every evening and at the same time, all week long.
There are no lights on any night in whole blocks.
But we can keep making hypothesis that are more and more far fetched, right? It doesn’t cost anything to come up with more fanciful explanations.
You spend your nights walking the same blocks over and over? Weird.
Is it so far-fetched that well-to-do people go out to dinner at the time people eat dinner?
Maybe he walks his dog every night, or jogs the same route.
What is your fucking problem with people reporting on their own neighborhood?
Whether he’s walking or jogging there’s an inherent bias in such observations.
What is your fucking problem with statistics?
Let’s not forget that your model of Van RE has been flawed for a decade, given the track record of the predictions you’ve made.
His model has been right all along. He gave you an explanation for what is driving prices higher.
Without chinese miney, prices inthis city would be half what they are tiday.
But what do you care? You have stats, right?
Patriotz’s point is that other cities have shown huge runups in prices AND empty homes and they don’t necessarily have tons of Chinese investors.
There are definitely huge swaths of Vancouver West where the night time “dark homes” and emptiness is way more than just people being out for dinner.
I recently had opportunity to go to Kerrisdale to buy something from a homeowner there. I was pretty depressed at how dark the streets were.
Gut feelings are OK, but you seem to mix up your gut feeling and fact at times. Instead of saying, “Mansions or not, this stock of housing will be out of the market for the foreseeable future,” you might consider, “I believe, based on the feeling I get when walking in my neighborhood in the evening, that many of these are owned by foreigners. Based on the way I imagine foreigners to be, my guess is that they will not sell.”
You might want to look at figures for the whole country:
Links don’t work.