Friday Free-for-all! February 17th 2017

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all! 

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. A few recent links to kick off the chat:

widespread mortgage fraud?

housing affordability flaw

bc ferry single bid

help to buy drives up entry prices

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend! 

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Don Lapre
Member
Don Lapre

First!!!

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

First with info!

“Greater Vancouver home sales prices expected to keep falling this year”, News 1130

http://www.news1130.com/2017/02/17/greater-vancouver-home-sales-prices-expected-keep-falling-year/

“Vancouver-area home sales are forecast to fall by double digits this year while prices also decrease for the second year in a row.”

“The BC Real Estate Association’s quarterly outlook for Greater Vancouver predicts sales of 34,000 units, 16.8 per cent less than last year although that’s an improvement of nearly two percentage points from its previous forecast.”

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You know BCREA, they have always been a very bearish bunch.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Toronto’s Tory rejects BMO’s bubble claim; calls housing market ‘healthy’”, BNN

https://www.bnn.ca/toronto-mayor-john-tory-rejects-bmo-s-bubble-claim-argues-housing-market-is-healthy-1.673655

“Toronto Mayor John Tory is rejecting the notion the city’s housing market is in a bubble and insists the rapid rise in home prices shows the market is healthy. “

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“There’s a new culprit for Toronto’s so-called housing bubble: move-up buyers”, Financial Post
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/theres-a-new-culprit-for-torontos-brewing-housing-bubble-move-up-buyers

“Capital Economics is stirring the housing pot again, this time suggesting Toronto’s growing housing bubble can be blamed on move-up buyers who are leveraging equity in their existing homes.”

“The firm, led by its economist David Madani, has long been known for its predictions, last week saying housing housing imbalances were a threat to the overall economy. ”

““Toronto’s growing housing bubble is being blamed on desperate first-time buyers chasing a dwindling inventory of homes for sale, but that’s a red herring,” Madani wrote, in a note out Friday. “The truth is that it’s mainly being driven by move-up buyers leveraging the equity in their existing homes. New mortgage rules introduced last year might not prevent a further escalation in prices and a more painful bust down the road.””

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I don’t see why it can’t be both. And foreign buyers. And speculators. Everybody’s at the party.

House Party
Guest
House Party

Yep. All at the party. And central bankers are supplying the E.

I see a big white rabbit that tells me I need to buy a condo.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

David Mandani is Ben Rabbidoux spelled backwards.

Boom
Guest
Boom

Time for Christy to enact a 20% tax credit to all foreigners whou would purchase a house in BC.

history
Guest
history

she already has, you buy a ‘Christy Put’ with your mortgage, free, since debt housing is too big to fail, dont even have to pay your proprty taxes, differred indefinetly.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

Credit against what? Non of the pay tax

Screwed
Guest
Screwed
patriotz
Member

The article fails to mention whether the auction will have a hidden reserve price, like that one in Burnaby. If there is everyone is still bidding blind really because they don’t know what price they have to beat.

Van real estate buff
Guest
Van real estate buff

Daily R/E video review from Twitter and news for February 17th: https://youtu.be/agCZwKtwYDg

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

Sold: 4498 W 5TH AVENUE, Point Grey, listed $3,380,000, assessed $3,468,000
History
Sale Date May 29, 2007
Sale Price $1,725,000

ostritch
Member
ostritch

When I see that I think it’s some other HAM scam going on like tax writeoffs or something. Regular Pt Grey lots aren’t under 2M.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Sorry but the agent’s site says sold over asking. Where are your sold numbers coming from.

http://www.gordoncartermarketing.com/property/index.php

Ulsterman
Member
I’ve signed the lease on a 7 bed, 4 bath executive home in N Burnaby for $3750/month. My long-term owner colleagues asked about the new place and were horrified i was paying so much in rent. Throw in 2 homestays and a mother-in-law renting the self-contained basement suite i pay $700 for my family – i can live with that. Why, they asked, did i not simply buy a place instead of throwing away so much on rent. Their comments made me realise how significant was the disconnect long-term owners have to the plight of anyone just entering the market. These people mostly bought 15-20 years ago. I told them that after paying property taxes, garbage and water rates, and a very modest maintenance fee, my $3750 in rent would probably only purchase a $600-700k home. Where was i likely… Read more »
Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?
I will echo those sentiments. When I tell them I am paying $5500 a month on a 5 yr lease they gasp. When I tell them the house was assessed at $5.0 mil they bend a bit, when I tell them the DP on said house would be $1 mil and the mortgage would be about $20K a month, the PPTY $10K+, The insurance $7K and the maintenance on a 1926 home, well huge. Then bend a bit more, then I throw in the landlord put in 20K in maintenance in the first 6 months I was in the house they fall over. By the end of the conversation a good number of them think it is a smart idea. I could care less if they do or not. As mentioned I own my vacation place in Whistler. This house… Read more »
YLTNboomerang
Member

When I look up houses for $4000+/month to rent on the North Shore, there are tonnes but how many people are there out there that can afford this if the average family after tax income on that side is $53K? That’s like 90% of income on shelter! I can afford $4K but can’t justify this when we are renting a penthouse for $2500 downtown right now.

Just me
Guest
Just me

And you think you are ahead? Get your head checked.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?
Just me: How do you define ahead? I define ahead as living the life that our family wants to live. We are living in the perfect house for us and the fact we don’t own it does not bother us. As mentioned we have a 5 yr lease so we cannot be kicked out for any reason. This arrangement allows us to travel, invest in non-real estate investments and live exactly where we want. Would I like to own it? Of course but as mentioned it is a $ 5 mil house and I am paying for a $1mil house. If I wanted to buy a $1 mil house we would have to move to areas where we don’t want to be. That is not how we define ahead. Everyone on this blog is in a different financial position but… Read more »
Burnaby
Guest
Burnaby

When I was a kid growing up in Burnaby in the 1960’s and 1970’s all my friends parents owned their own houses and the moms mostly stayed home while the dads went off to work. All the families had one car and we all lived in those common 1950’s style bungalows. There was no property speculation like there is now, and no rental houses; everybody bought because it was feasible to do so but prices were reasonable enough that we could all live that lifestyle and it was normal. We also did not have the massive immigration that we have had for the last 25 years and I think that is a large part of why we are here now. Burnaby was a sleepy suburb back then and certainly not seen as some investment mecca for houses.

YVR
Guest
YVR

There were lots of people in the past that did stretch themselves when buying and it worked out. We have had 30 years of mortgage rates trending down. That bailed out many when they get to refinance or renew at a lower rate. Going forward rates can only go up. Big difference for anyone who stretches themselves now to buy in. Your payment goes up, not down.

Ulsterman
Member
YVR, I guess the distinction i’m trying to make is that in the past they had to stretch themselves to buy their first house and scrimp and save for a few years after until they earned more money. Maybe they paid 5 times salary when they’d have been more comfortable paying 3-4. A near-retirement colleague at work told me this type of story. Her and her husband had to give up holidays for a few years and they did all the reno’s on the house themselves. To them this was a hardship. By today’s young-people’s standards they were living the dream. Being able to afford a house just after marriage in their twenties, and it’s in a nearby suburb like Burnaby – not Mission. Today for most people scrimping and saving would be a dream. There’s just no option because… Read more »
Screwed
Guest
Screwed
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Terrible, very terrible. Fucking locust keeps us all as hostages stuck in our own countries.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I don’t get that. In what way are we stuck or hostages?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Living in your city under a cluod of uncertainty and risk to be evicted at any time. Unsure of what your future living costs will be.
This is what he means. Don’t be a smartass.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

He’s an a** of the highest order.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Um. Get me a green card or let me claim Refugee status in another country from HAM price escalation and I’ll show you. But I can’t.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You don’t need those things. Just apply for a job overseas and if you’re any good your future employer will sort out a work permit. Live there for long enough then go for citizenship. Sounds like laziness is your kidnapper.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I don’t work in tech so no NAFTA approved job for me. It’s pretty hard to qualify for any job down there for me. Did live and work in Europe for a while. Could go to England but hate it. Would love to live in the US. So many climates. So many jobs, industry, and lifestyles. I would jump at the chance.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Make a company on both sides of the border, then transfer yourself on an L1 visa. Hard work, but it works.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Get yourself a green card. It’s hard, but not that hard. Or go work somewhere else (the US is harder than most places to get a visa for). I really recommend trying out the wide world. I did half of my rambling with a family in tow, so there is really nothing that can hold you back if you want to do it.

patriotz
Member

It’s politicians like Christy and the local greedbags who elect them who are keeping you hostage, not foreigners.

history
Guest
history

interesting comment, there is some truth to this, but…

The local greenbags turn on their idiot boxes to see the Housing shows that prolifierate nowadays. Contractor A competing with Contractor B to see whose home redo gets the highrest re-appraisal. Good Old 5th column Hollywood pumpin’ the Too Big To Fail debt ridden Balance Sheet economy. Suggesting its Christy or Local Capitalist/Developers is disingenious, like hacking at branches. Very few at this forum go after the roots.

Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

And stooges like you and the Garth turner groupies are her enablers by denying the obvious truth.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“SFU urban studies professor Wu Qiyan, UBC geographer David Ley and others are most closely watching China, the fast-growing powerhouse of 1.4 billion people.

They make a convincing case that no other factor — including interest rates — is as important, as surveys showing 40 to 60 per cent of China’s wealthy individuals want to emigrate and buy housing in another country.”

Of couse locusts are the main factor in our real estate prices, the interest effect ran out in 2011.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Nonsense. It has been locals gorging on the cheapest interest rates in over 200+ years.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Is this your personal war against evidence and fact? You just read an article spelling some interesting views by well known researchers. Yet you are arriogant enough to insist with your (so far unsubstantiated) opinion.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It doesn’t matter how many people “want” to buy real estate. Only those that actually participate in the market impact prices.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Ya but they didn’t like run their ideas by Patriotz.

patriotz
Member

“They make a convincing case that no other factor — including interest rates — is as important”

I can’t accept that. If rates went up to 20% again all the tea in China couldn’t save this market from a bigger collapse than in the early 80’s. And let’s not forget most foreign buyers are dependent on Canadian credit too.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I would say: most foreign buyers use (but are not dependent on) Canadian credit.

patriotz
Member

Foreign buyers using Canadian credit might buy anyway without it, but the real question is would they be buying as much (in total $ sales) without it. If not, that’s being dependent in my view, just as locals are dependent.

Just me
Guest
Just me

What I am saying is that the degree of dependence is very different.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

They are referring to the low interest rate factor, you are referring to a high interest scenario.

While you’re correct about the impact of high interest rates, that’s a completely different real estate market.

patriotz
Member

Well that’s the point. Their claim that low interest rates aren’t responsible for high prices implies that those high prices would exist even if we had high rates.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“In 2016 China’s rich injected more than $33 billion into U.S., Australian, British and other global housing markets. We don’t know how much they bought in Canada because, as Ley said, this country ranks among the few “in the civilized world” that doesn’t publish foreign investment data.”

Notice that the resident HAM denying creep on this blog likes to use the phrase “all the available data” when attempting to refute the effects of chinese on jacking up prices and putting all of the blame on locals.

Shifty little fucker, I must say. He would make a great cabinet minister in Krusty’s government.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Asking for data is the cheapest and quickest way to silence conversations about real estate. the BC Libs have been using this trick for years. Of course, they gathered no useful or reliable data in the meanwhile.

Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

In fact Liberals both fed and provincial actually work to actively suppress any meaningful data on foreign buying of our homes.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Another Friday night at home?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth
“Ley is also convinced the outrage Metro residents felt over inflated housing prices was the political reason for Premier Christy Clark breaking out of her usual pro-foreign-investment stance and applying the 15-per-cent tax. An Angus Reid poll revealed 90 per cent of Metro residents supported the move. That included most of those “profiting” on paper from the bubble, whom Ley said worried for the future for their children and grandchildren. It appears the 15-per-cent tax may have had some impact on China’s elite. The Hurun Index reports China’s wealthy now rank Metro Vancouver sixth, instead of third, as the city they most want to emigrate to and buy dwellings in. Los Angeles and San Francisco remain in first and second. Vancouver has been replaced by Seattle. New York and Boston fill the fourth and fifth spots.” Imagine how low Vancouver… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

I would vote for ANY politicians who was willing to enforce such a tax.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Make that tax 90%, farther that shit goes better. Letting them more in is like calling for a disaster of epic proportions.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

This article is a piece of junk with a lot of “missing parts”.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Ya. There’s no pics of naked girls to keep you from killing yourself when you read it.

Just me
Guest
Just me

It feels pretty good to be in the company of some smart people in my view of what is the key driver of this insane housing market:

“What is most likely to cause the bubble to rupture?

SFU urban studies professor Wu Qiyan, UBC geographer David Ley and others are most closely watching China, the fast-growing powerhouse of 1.4 billion people.

They make a convincing case that no other factor — including interest rates — is as important, as surveys showing 40 to 60 per cent of China’s wealthy individuals want to emigrate and buy housing in another country.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

This must take the cherry. Totally true:

“Offshore investors, says Ley, recognize the purchase tax is not permanent. They see Clark has already relaxed the rules, making it possible for non-citizens who pay Canadian taxes to not pay it.

That means, for instance, 170,000 foreign students and non-permanent residents, the largest group of which is from China, are again allowed to freely buy luxury or other homes in Metro as proxies for foreigners.

Some speculate the NDP would be tougher than Clark, whose party is politically indebted to the real-estate industry, at restricting offshore capital in order for Metro housing to return to some semblance of affordability.”

ostritch
Member
ostritch

This is why I don’t think HAM will be back before the election. I think they’ll give Vancouver a miss until after as you can make more money in other housing markets right now. Not sure what they’ll do if the NDP get in. Probably just wait and see if developers succeed in buying them off or not.

Just me
Guest
Just me

They will not be able to cut a deal with the NDP that is nearly as good as the deal they currently have with the BC libs.

patriotz
Member

“They see Clark has already relaxed the rules”

Of course this isn’t true, the same rules are in place, she’s just talking about changing them.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Wait and see. She will chip away until nothing is left.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Wow. It’s weird that 2 UBC intellectuals actually seem to understand what’s been going on and admit the loophole in the FB tax is large.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Why? Do you think politicians and developers are more honest than university profs? Why on earth would you think that?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Maybe because we’ve heard nothing but denial of a) a hot housing market from our universities for the last 15 years. I’m thinking of Sauder specifically, and the other schools generally and b) total Ham denial and shrieks of racism from all intellectuals from UBC–until now.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Have been considering renting a house over on the North Shore, budget is $4-5K/month, found a few nice places but all the property managers insist only on fixed term leases…most generous said they could try and convince the owner (builder) to do a 2 year. Nobody seems to want a long term renter anymore, I get the sense they are hoping that the market will recover and while rent doesn’t cover operating costs it stems the bleed and lets them hold on for a little longer. I told the property manager for the builder good luck and I’d call them back when the fixed term lease is legislated away.

Burnaby
Guest
Burnaby

Even without a fixed term lease they can still go month to month and boot you out with two month’s notice. The only saving grace is there are a lot of speculators trying to rent houses now so there is some competition and the rental market appears to be softening at least in my area.

YLTNboomerang
Member
That’s true, but they can’t put you in a fixed term lease for the first year at a reasonable price and then tell you it’s going up 50% a year later. Costs of moving a 4 bedroom house are not small not to mention kids in school etc so the sketchy landlord with a foxed term knows they have you in a tough position and often will raise rent unfairly. As for two months, if they want to pay me $10K to go away, fine but if they don’t move in, Reno, or sell the place they will get hit with a lawsuit for all my incremental costs at my next home. I offered to sign a 5 year lease with rent escalation baked in and still got a no as clearly a lot of these guys are just flippers… Read more »
Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

Good strategy

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You think not wanting to commit to 5 years makes somebody a flipper? Maybe they’ve got no idea whether you’re a good tenant and there are plenty of other people not making such demands? Perhaps you should live there for a year and then try and negotiate something longer?

YLTNboomerang
Member

Yes. If you have a property as a business to generate cash flow having a guaranteed flow with escalation is ideal and would make the property more attractive to sell to other investors. The issue is that none of these places are cashflow positive in a bubble and only make in on paper if the price goes up so these guys are trying to minimize the negative cashflow hoping for a big payout on flip – the very definition of flipper!

Stratahacker
Guest
Stratahacker

What you say is incorrect. The sole advantage of a fixed term lease to the renter is that it CANNOT be broken with 2 months notice like a regular lease by the landlord. Such a lease cannot be broken by the landlord for any reason before the end of the fixed term. Period.

YLTNboomerang
Member

I’m fine being kicked out if the owner wants to move in or the place is sold and the new owner wants to move in and will take my $10K and find another place…there are tonnes at this price range. What I am not comfortable is a landlord saying the rent goes up 20% or I have to be gone at the end of the month.

YVR
Guest
YVR

It just shows how many properties are held for short term speculation. At some point these properties must be sold.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s a pretty awful time to be looking for a place big enough for kids. Nobody moves out during the school year.

I have noticed that there is a lot of this fixed term stuff out there, including a lot for just a few months. And it makes sense. If you are not living in it, it must be an investment, and who wants to lock in an investment at a money losing rate?

Fortunately, my landlady, who was planning to sell last year, has now decided to hold off for at least a year. I guess she’s waiting for the market to recover. Of course, she bought this place at a time when the rent covered the mortgage, so she’s in no rush.

Funkeymonkey
Member
Funkeymonkey

There is a lot on the north shore. I see many hole houses for 3000-3500 I even see west van for those prices.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Go to Cali.

YLTNboomerang
Member

Too expensive. Have a job offer in TX but waiting for Trump to make the call on his visa executive order, NVan is plan B…don’t want to go down on a TN and then have to come back and commute while the permanent residency goes through…too disruptive on the kids education as well.

Ralph M
Guest
Ralph M

“The most significant job growth in B.C. happened in the range of people making between 50 and 100 per cent of the average wage – so that’s workers making $12.49 to $24.98 per hour.

The next-strongest growth came in the cohort of workers making less than 50 per cent of that wage – less than $12.49 per hour.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/3221535/bc-income-growth/

Fear monger
Guest
Fear monger

Fucking tired of waiting for Paul’s numbers.
Who would use this guy for a realtor.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Who would want you as a client?

I’d direct your worthless ass straight over to New Coast.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver’s real estate market will keep falling: BCREA” Global with video

http://globalnews.ca/news/3258122/vancouvers-real-estate-market-will-keep-falling-bcrea/

“Residential home sales in B.C. are forecast to slide 14.1 per cent in 2017 and the average home price should fall nearly five per cent, according to a report from the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA).”

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Is this a weird joke? Vancouver has stopped falling.

301-1616 W 13th. 1200 sq ft 2-bed in primo South Granville EXCEPT this concrete mid rise is the last building anyone wants to buy in the area. It’s an old building and it certainly smells that way when you walk in its small, gloomy lobby. That’s why it’s ALWAYS been way less per sq ft than any other building in the hood.

Each floor had a balcony but most are framed in with spalling concrete your companion for moist sunny afternoons. The upper floors have nice views but this unit won’t. Ask 739K. Sold 740K. One penny over ask Is a penny too much but someone must have bee. feeling pressure. This can’t be a declining market.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Below 750k the market is active. Above, it is dead.
Massive price gap between the two housing levels.

Screwed
Guest
Screwed
Just st me
Guest
Just st me
“Working from those figures, the Business Council of B.C. calculated that the real estate sector – including construction, renovations and other spinoffs – accounted for 35 to 40 per cent of the province’s economic activity.” “Since 2012, growth in the province’s real estate sector outpaced the rest of the economy. Each year, it expanded at a rate of between four and six per cent, while the rest of the economy was averaging two-per-cent growth. It means the overall economic growth that B.C. has enjoyed has been pulled up by real estate.” “However, Central 1’s senior economist, Bryan Yu, said it’s not all bad news. The 15-per-cent foreign buyers tax did help temper the market in the Lower Mainland, but in other communities where the tax was not applied, sales are still strong.” “They have built their economic plan on a… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“This Premier has the approach that you starve the system for years, and then at election time, you put the money back in. It’s a terrible approach. When you take it apart and then put it back together, it costs more than if you had supported the system all along,” she said.”

I would imagine that a psychopath like Christy Clark isn’t too concerned with the long term effects that she has on our province.

Just me
Guest
Just me

People fall for it, just like they dud fir her first time buyers loans. I think there is a large group of individuals who simply refuse to see the truth, even when it is served to them on a silver platter.

Christy Clark would sink the whole province for her own political career. So far her plan is working.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You mean those local people buying with a herd-like mentality using the government incentive are right to blame those greedy foreigners? Is that the truth they’re not seeing (presumably because they’re too busy browsing MLS)?

YVR
Guest
YVR

35 to 40 per cent of the province’s economic activity

That is 40% of peoples jobs depend on this sector. Does anyone believe the NDP will kill 40% of the BC economy? No way, they will try to keep the bubble going just like every other politician. Of course all bubbles pop so it makes no difference who is in power.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

The NDP is not known for being election-smart. That is why they are so seldom in office. They don’t necessarily do things that are likely to get them elected. Sometimes, that’s a plus.

Also keep in mind that the NDP does not have strong central leadership. They do everything by committee and in-fighting, so they don’t really have a mechanism for either implementing plans or being responsive the way the BC Liberals do. Once they are in power, things will just sort of naturally fall apart and roll down hill with gravity.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I agree the NDP policies would be bearish for the general economy which will impact real estate. When that happens they will be forced to try to boost the RE sector as jobs are lost and other businesses shutdown. The only part of the RE sector not tied to the local economy is foreign investment so I suspect we would see more HAM friendly investment policy under the NDP. That is all they will have. That is on top of all that new free stuff like no MSP, free child care and carbon tax rebate cheques that is attractive to HAM.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You give them too much credit.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Not even Pindarus had such fantasy! You have predicted multiple stages of the future under an NDP givernment, with no evidence or supporting facts. It is good to have opinions, but it is even better if they can be explained.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Christy proves no one wants that to happen on their watch. How can the NDP be any different?

realist
Member
realist

“real estate sector – including construction, renovations and other spinoffs – accounted for 35 to 40 per cent of the province’s economic activity.”

A sad statistic. Why would anyone ever work, invest, invent, and dream when all that stood between them and great riches was the construction of a few glorified shacks? We have found the cure for world poverty!

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s hard to see how anything could go wrong.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Things are going wrong for some people. But thise people are not the rich foreigners waiting in the wings for the tax to go away. It us regular Canadians who are totally and completely priced out from the place where they live and work.

But we need students to live in SFHs on the west side. Our economy would suffer otherwise, right?

history
Guest
history

see all the chinese language adds to try and get them to work?
good luck. Lazy bunch

ostritch
Member
ostritch

But if you look at the counties where global wealth is coming from this is nothing new. The working class are priced out of where they work too. And in some countries, there are classes of people who are not permitted to own land or homes. It’s nothing personal. They probably would think you are exaggerating or nostalgic for something that never existed if you explained how things were here for regular people after WWII.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

170,000 foreign students and IMP/TFW workers in metro As per Just me above.

Probably another 150,000 ten year visa holders.

That’s like 320,000. And about 70,000 become PR each year and another 70,000+ take their place.

Out of control!!

15% of metro Vancouver population!!! And people wonder why rents are exploding and housing is goin thru the roof.

Just me
Guest
Just me

People keep making fun if you, but I think sone of your numbers sound less and less crazy as one cinsiders the sheer magnitude of the students’ flows. The government of Canada has gone, to put it mildly, totally batshit.

Short term electoral convenience wins over long term planning. The evidence mounts, but many people choose to ignore it.

Leaving aside the child benefits (which I agree is nuts) think about this simple fact: allowing students with work permits to buy homes like locals will make the FBT toothless, will generate some money short term for a subset of the population but will eventually ruin the long term prospects of a vast majority of residents. A large chunk of the housing stock will be effectively removed from the market. However, pointing this out is considered extremist, crazy or worse.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

He’s implying a 15% growth rate, whereas we know the real number is nothing of the sort. He simply enjoys exaggeration. The census says metro Vancouver grew 6.5% over 5 years (not per year) and I think other posters have provided stats the development out-paced population growth.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Not all groups grew at the same speed. What is the figure for “foreign students”? And would they even appear in the census?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Relative growth speed between groups, or change in the mix, makes little to no impact on housing availability.

Again, we’re building houses at a rate equal to or in excess of population growth.

I’ve no idea what motivates all these developers, quite honestly. Maybe it’s because the locals pounce on everything they build because they think it’s a better bet than trusting the money they don’t have to “Wall St banksters” in RRSPs they’re not contributing to?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Again, the queston is: does the reported growth rate include foreigh students? I cannot see any mention of them, perhaps someone wo know the census can chip in. We are talking about large numbers of people who do buy RE.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Census methodology is posted on their website.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Then show me where they say they include foreign students. If you are so confident, provide some proof. Thanks in advance.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&SDDS=3901

“Non-permanent residents are persons who hold a work or student permit, or who claim refugee status.”

It’s under the bit where it says “methodology”. Sorry if that’s confusing.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Great. Now count them over the past ten years.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Lies.

Close to 300,000 immigrants per year and your saying Vancouver on receives about 27,000/year to account for a 6.5% growth rate over 5 years???

Either stop the malicious lies or go do grade 8 math again.

They are not counting the temp residents who are more or less permanent.

And PNP immigration counts you an immigrant of the province that sponsors you. Official stats say NO QIIP immigrants went to BC. All went to Quebec.

Keep believing this bullshit.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Dude, you pulled those numbers out of your ass again. You also forget that people leave. It’s net migration which counts.

15%/year population growth? That’s a doubling every 4-5 years you utter clown.

realist
Member
realist

Just me, you use the future tense when you outline your scenario. However, the process you describe has been going on less obviously for decades, and has accelerated in the past 10 years. As far as Vancouver RE is concerned, the changes are well advanced and will likely continue, barring a major economic reversal or political black swan.
For the record, I have never dismissed Oracle’s observations, many of which have more foundation than most on this board would like.

WOW
Guest
WOW

Just found out that Foreign students or Temporary residents with kids can get the Child benefit. $600/kid. If they file a tax return where they worked a few days while in canada.

Wow

////////////////////////////////////////////////////
“Tax Benefits and Children

Married couples and common law-partners with children may receive additional benefits. “Kids qualify for child tax benefits, (many) based on income levels,” Juneja says.

The Canada Child Benefit is a tax-free, monthly payment for families to help them with the cost of raising children under the age of 18.

You must file a tax return to receive these benefits,” Juneja explains. You also must live with and be the child’s primary caregiver. Additionally, one spouse must be a Canadian citizen, permanent resident, protected person or temporary resident.”

https://turbotax.intuit.ca/tips/does-being-married-affect-your-tax-rate-in-canada-444

Lets bring the world here!!

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

This is a means tested benefit which was paid to everyone with kids until Sunny Boy took over. I pay taxes at 47% and we had ours taken away. I am not asking anyone to cry for me but its sick that I pay a crap load of taxes to support our system and someone from China with 1000x’s my wealth can come here and collect it because they don’t report their income.

franko
Member
franko

“Its sick that I pay a crap load of taxes”

Well, somebody’s gotta pay to support the thousands of illegals that are trudging across the border to escape Trumpland, never mind that they can afford the thousand dollar taxi fare to get them there…and Bambi’s newly appointed Somali immigration minister doesn’t see any problem with it.

Looks like Oracle wasn’t too far off with his predictions.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Expect more of this type of thing if the BC NDP are elected. Everything is about increasing taxes for those that earn income and redistributing free benefits to those that report low income regardless of wealth. So far they have promised free childcare, free MSP and free carbon tax cheques all sent to wealthy home owners paid for by anyone who reports income. Who know what other taxes they will increase to pay out to low income earners.

patriotz
Member
Just me
Guest
Just me

You cannot convince YVR. He will refuse to believe even the plainest of evidence. He just hates the NDP and will never accept they may do somthing better.

patriotz
Member

Oh he believes it. It’s not hard to tell the difference between simple ignorance and malicious lying.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Sorry can you point out the lie? Everything I stated is in the NDP policy and they have held recent press conferences stating such. The link you provided to a sham bill last year is not in their policy or even stated this would take place if elected. Plus the bill has so many holes in it virtually nobody would pay anything. People who own for 5 years are except for example. That will just prevent people from selling in order to keep that exemption.

patriotz
Member

“People who own for 5 years are except for example.”

Wrong. The exemption is for principal residences owned for the previous 5 years. Others such as offshore owners would pay indefinitely.

Oh by the way, the NDP is not proposing free child care, but would charge $10/day, as widely reported. Try to make your lies less obvious..

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

$10 a day child care?

You’d almost think the NDP were putting families first.

Just me
Guest
Just me

That would be a first in Vancouver for sure. I am also giddy!

YVR
Guest
YVR

“You’d almost think the NDP were putting families first.”

It takes from one family and gives to another with a massive government bureaucracy taking 50% in between. Ever notice which families have all the kids in Vancouver who may take advantage?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

How was that a lie?

YVR
Guest
YVR

“People who own for 5 years are except for example.”

Wrong. The exemption is for principal residences owned for the previous 5 years.

Beyond splitting hairs. That is splitting atoms.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

I think we agree here.

For once.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You are naive and easily sucked in. The NDP was in power before. Google Bingogate, Fudge it Budget, Fast Ferries, NDP BC tax increase, etc. Note BC income taxes were cut by 25% the day the NDP were thrown out last time. That 25% tax cut will be put back in if the NDP are elected.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

That is 100% true. As much as I hate Kristy the NDP will raise taxes the second they get in and they will raise them a lot!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I guess you both hate paying taxes so much that you’re happy with third world services including shitty health care and education.

You’re also completely missing the typical BC Lib trick of lowering your income taxes on one hand while raising your fees elsewhere with the other hand.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Higher taxes does not equal better services under the NDP. They equal payouts to unions who have supported them for the past 12 years and need payback. Medical and education sucked the same when the NDP were in power but we had higher taxes.

User fees at least make EVERYONE pay. Income taxes only make those who declare income pay. You have been whining about HAM not paying enough for years. No user fees with higher income taxes makes it worse.

Just me
Guest
Just me

But lower taxes certainly guarantees abysmal services.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

“Third world services”

Spoiled brat.

Just me
Guest
Just me

The relative decline in quality of services is tangible, in schools, hospitals and physicians’s care.
He is just being honest.
Christ Clark would rather give an additional tax cut to homeowners than spend some serious money in socially important services.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I share your view on this. The means-testing allows millionaire real estate owners in Vancouver to receive yet another transfer from the government.
Hiwever if you actually have a good productive jib and income you get nothing. The usual story: reward wealth, tax labor.

Another example is TFSA allowance: they were reduced because Trudeau said they favored the rich. Then, why not reduce the tax-free allowance on residential real estate? Just cap it, like you do for TFSAs.

Why should my wealth be taxed so much more heavily if I don’t hold it in RE? And does it make sense to have no tax on multimillion dollars residences?

This is the leitmotif in BC and Canada for the past 10 years. Why no politician or academic asks these hard questions?

patriotz
Member

Plenty of academics have been asking these questions. As for politicians, they like to get elected. However the BC NDP does have a sound proposal for taxing those hiding wealth in RE. But they had to limit it (de facto) to rich immigrants. There are simply too many boomers counting on cashing in for anything wider to be politically possible.

patriotz
Member

“I pay taxes at 47% ”

That means you (individually) have a taxable income of over $200K. Note that the 47% is the marginal rate, not the average rate.

Now if the NDP’s bill (link posted) had not been voted down by Christy and gang, a rich immigrant with a $3 mil house would be assessed the same ($60K annually) as the provincial income tax paid by someone earning $500K.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Can you show me something where the NDP have stated they will implement this if elected?

Just me
Guest
Just me

YVR you are beyond any hope of redention. He just showed you a bill, and even if they implemented half of that bill it would be massive progress from the status quo.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

YVR, which riding do you reside in?

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

You got me. Its actually closer to 42% average but in any event it is a shit load of tax. I think I am paying my “share” but the NDP and the Federal Liberals considers me “rich” so this next budget they will find more creative ways to get more tax out of me. Look for the capital gains inclusion tax to go up to 66-75%.

Just me
Guest
Just me

That would make teh wedge between taxation of hosuing andmother wealth unacceptable.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Now if the NDP’s bill (link posted) had not been voted down by Christy and gang, a rich immigrant with a $3 mil house would be assessed the same ($60K annually)

Under the NDP plan, which the NPD has yet to confirm as policy, they pay $60K after 1 year if they don’t have a renter or a number of other loopholes. Under the current 15% tax which the NDP opposed they pay $450K up front and $450K again for each and every house they flip. Which is a bigger deterrent? $60K is the same as property purchase tax which was no deterrent.

patriotz
Member

“Under the current 15% tax which the NDP opposed they pay $450K up front and $450K again for each and every house they flip.”

Did you actually read what I said and you quoted? I said a rich immigrant, who pays nothing at all under Christy’s foreign buyers tax.

And the NDP did not oppose the tax on offshore buyers. They wanted to exempt those who work and pay taxes in BC, a policy which Christy herself now supports.

Foreign buyers’ tax does nothing for affordability, needs to be fixed: Horgan

YVR
Guest
YVR

Not if they have owned the house as a principal residence for 5 years. Not if they claim to rent the house or part of the house and claim a nominal amount of rental income on their income tax filing. After deducting expenses they would pay no income tax on that rental income but avoid the new tax. Too many loopholes to be effective.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Just found out that Foreign students or Temporary residents with kids can get the Child benefit. $600/kid. ”

Nowhere does it say in your link that foreign students with kids qualify for the CCTB.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Yes, children of temporary residents (foreign students, TFW, and IMP) are eligible for the maximum child benefit, free MSP, and free grade school education (no tuition).

Confirmed it via relatives.

10 Year visa holders are not eligible at this time.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Foreign students are not temporary residents.

Your disinformation and sock puppetry is disgraceful, WOW.

Just me
Guest
Just me

If they are not, then they cannot be accounted for by the census.

patriotz
Member

The instructions for the census say “Students who return to live with their parents during the year should be included at their parents’ address, even if they live elsewhere while attending school or working at a summer job.” Students who don’t, whether local or foreign, are supposed to be included at their residence on Census Day.

Just me
Guest
Just me

So, assuming that foeign studentsndo respond to the Census, we should be able to approximate their numbers and check whether Oracle’s numbers stand up.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Let us know when you’re done.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Since we are open forum right now I will share two real estate investments that have done exceptionally well for me over the past several years that allow participation in the US multifamily sector.

http://www.milestonereit.com

http://www.puremultifamily.com

The first recently agreed to a take over offer so it will likely be taken private. The second however is still able to be purchased and offers a very nice monthly yield.

I don’t hate RE. I just hate Vancouver RE.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
152
Price Change
28
Sold
118

TI:7945

http://www.clivestevepaul,com

Softy
Guest
Softy

Market looks hot.

Softy
Guest
Softy

Been hot for a couple of weeks.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Not sure why you’re being voted down. Zolo confirms that the market is hot despite weak yoy comparisons.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

118 is ‘hot’ for mid-Feb? last year’s average was 200 per day for Feb. That is hot.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s a hot sell/list, but volume and total dollar amounts are important too. We’ll see.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Inventory is liw by historical standards. Either people are delaying listings or there is a bunch of places frozen out of the market (held as long term safe deposit bixes).

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

People can’t afford to move up so they’re not selling their current home.

Just me
Guest
Just me

That is probably one of the few true things you ever contributed to this blog. I do agree it is a realistic hypothesis.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

It’s unfortunate you confuse the truth with what appeals to you.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Could say the same for you. I guess you have your motives to defend foreign buyers and convince others that we should embrace Chinese millionaires.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Thanks for the strawman, but you’d do yourself a favour by posting some reliable info from time to time rather than simply prejudices.

I post stats that support my view. You hand wave and post anecdotes or unsubstantiated theories. Big difference.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Stats? Facts? ? From you? Ok, sure.

Van real estate buff
Guest
Van real estate buff

Daily R/E housing bubble review video for Feb 18th, 2017: https://youtu.be/S-8KbU-Ef-c

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

hey guys, when is the crash gonna happen?

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

As soon as we block illegal Chinese money and reign in immigration (foreign students and 10 yr visa and TFW). Make no mistake, it will happen. Only a matter of time.

And for those that sell in the meantime , renters will do their due diligence that these people pay capital gains taxes. I know I will.

How you going to win?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

So in other words, never?

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

It has already started.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Why don’t you tell us? You predicted the market to get even hotter last Spring and the market slowed down right at that point. Remember your cute space shuttle launch picture?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Zolo says that condo and townhouse prices are up compared to 3, 6, and 12 months ago.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

So what? His prediction was that the market would get hotter, but the market slowed down and price growth receded, Townhouses and Condos included.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

This story sounds very appropriate for realtors over the next several months. Trying to save face, they sold their home to ostensibly travel the world, but they are selling their worldly possessions to pay for their wedding and get out of debt.

You would think that an astute real estate agent would know the market and would be making “millions”. lol.

https://www.kelownanow.com/watercooler/news/news/Kelowna/17/02/18/Kelowna_couple_ditches_mortgage_to_travel_the_globe/

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Is that really your takeaway from that article?

Just me
Guest
Just me
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Nobody wants china to collapse more than I do, but damn…it’s taking forever.

Doomcouver
Guest
Doomcouver

I don’t think you actually want that, although I also believe it is inevitable at this point. A collapse in China’s credit market likely means global recession. Also I don’t think it’s surprising it’s taking so long considering it will likely be one of the largest credit bubbles popping in human history thusfar. They almost have 255% private debt to GDP in 2016, plus all the trillions in shadow lending that don’t show up in the numbers. We in the west should be very concerned about our quality of life when the credit situation in China starts eroding.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

in the meantime, we can keep pressure on out domestic politicians and bureaucrats to tax the hell out of illegal foreign money and reduce the “temp” immigration streams.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

I’m ok with that, in fact a global recession is needed at this point.

All of this fake wealth needs to be wiped out and the debts behind it called in.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

That is basically the case. These distortions aren’t really good for anyone.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Xi Jinping must be propping things up until the congress that will confirm him next November. He can’t allow a crash to go occur between now snd then. He must be throwing everything he has to it. Capital controls might get even worse (or better, depending on your point of view).

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Do Americans who live in their houses have to pay cap gains tax when they sell? I can’t remember.

Rye
Guest
Rye

After you sell, there is a window of time to avoid cap gain, after that u paid cap gain.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Yes, the American system is totally crazy. You can use capital gains to buy new housing, otherwise they are taxable.

It forces you to buy a new place of at least equal value to completely avoid capital taxes. Effectively they create ever rising demand by households.

Housing in Nirth America is considered something that should be incentivized and treated preferentially.

fomostyle
Guest
fomostyle

Don’t forget tax deduction of mortgage in US also

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull
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