Friday Free-for-all! February 24 2017

Hey, what’s going on?

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all! 

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, normally we post links to kick off the chat here, but this time it’s up to you!

What are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend! 

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Owe B.C.
Guest
Owe B.C.

In the budget released on Feb. 21, 2017 the B.C. government is expecting a budget surplus of $295 million in the 2017/18 fiscal year. In this same 2017/18 fiscal year they are expecting the total provincial debt to increase by $3.1 billion, up to $69.7 billion.

They are expecting a budget surplus of $244 million in the 2018/19 fiscal year. In this same 2018/19 fiscal year they are expecting the total provincial debt to increase by $3.7 billion, up to $73.4 billion.

They are expecting a budget surplus of $223 million in the 2019/20 fiscal year. In this same 2019/20 fiscal year they are expecting the total provincial debt to increase by $4.2 billion, up to $77.6 billion.

(First and second tables at the following link:)

http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/PT/dmb/ref/debtSummary.pdf

Just me
Guest
Just me

This is well know. Effective Provincial debt has doubled in the last 15 years under the BC Libs. However they are free to claim that they have achieved a debt reduction because the split the debt in two components (current account and capital account). The one on the capital account has grown enormously under Christy Clark.

Did you really trust Christy Clark that she would do something in our interest?

Just me
Guest
Just me
By the way, the inventory on the West side is as low as I have ever seen it. If you restrict attention to properties below 2.5 millions and with at least 3 bedrooms (say, 1400sqft or more) you actually can count them properties using your hands. Some people claim that many sellers are holding on before listing, hoping for Chinese buyers to appear again. My view is different: a large chunk of the property stock has been effectively removed from the market because it is being held by absent mainland “investors” who do not care about renting out or selling it. For these individuals those houses are like gold bricks and any taxation is just a cost of doing business. I hope to be wrong, but if my hypothesis is even partly correct, we have passed the point of no… Read more »
Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Bingo.

Every month, about 2000 millionaires from China arrive (via students/QIIP/regular immigrant entry). They will invest in condos/townhomes after getting PR BUT will live in SFD homes as soon as they buy.

They will not put that on detached home back on the market again. Thus as time goes by, you will see less and less Vancouver detached homes being sold. Speculation of foreign money will go towards multi-family. Thats what is happening now as locals buying condos are getting priced out.

The sheep will think prices are falling because ‘average’ price down. The idiots can’t see its the sales mix causing it.

Local renters are doomed in Vancouver. If they move south of Fraser, good luck commuting 4 hours a day.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

What you say is very possibly true. They just don’t sell. It’s always Johnny Appleseed putting his place on the market thinking it’s the top or better get out before it falls. Foreign money just holds.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

yes, we have passed the point of no return.

Watch as this blog spews the same info in 12 months time. Its been 8 months since the FBT.

Remember when i said inventory is going to hit 7K? Now there is a possibility of hitting 7K in MARCH!!!

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“If you restrict attention to properties below 2.5 millions”

Of course you’re not going to find much at that price, it’s been that way for the last 2 years.

Most of what’s selling on the west side is the low end, just like most sales in the broader market and it’s been dragging the average price down.

Benchmark is down 200K from peak, average is down 800K.

Other than that sub 2.5M segment, inventory on the west side is pretty high.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Yet, it is stunning tgat we now routinely consider 2.5 millions as the basic threshold for decent accommodation. This is niw normal.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I have been looking at what sells in the 700K to .5 million segment. It’s like there’s been a nuclear blast taking out all the decent properties. It sounds shocking how really ugly, leaky questionable stuff is getting high prices.

paulb
Member
Active Member

New
129
Price Change
30
Sold
108

TI:7987

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

WOW.

7K Party!

Also heard condo sold for $200,000 over asking yesterday. Can you confirm Paulb?

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Sorry Vancouver, according to Juwai, Toronto is now the “most sought-after Canadian city by Chinese buyers” for real estate displacing Vancouver from No. 1.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Suggesting that people using Juwai are chasing appreciation.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

+ 1. They are momentum buyers which is why I don’t celebrate price declines anymore.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Sorry Vancouver?

More like sorry Toronto.

Poor bastards, having to deal with that shit.

Just me
Guest
Just me

With a bit of luck they will never comeback here.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Locust evolved and became more resilient to cold…

MLS watch
Guest
MLS watch

8 000 Chinese millionaires and 12 000 millionaires from France moved to Canada last year. Students from Muslim countries now willing to study in Canada rather than in the US. In my field, the competition for jobs went up one order of magnitude since Trump, with senior US staff applying for jobs in Canada. I am not happy with those news, but I must deal with it: we are past the point of no return.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Betcha not one of the millionaires from France came to Vancouver.

Just me
Guest
Just me

They wanted to emigrate to Canada, not to China.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Wrong. The French millionaires went to other countries. I read that article.

The Chinese millionaires mostly cane to canada.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Listings have collapsed….why?

Are potential sellers waiting until May 9th to figure out what their next move should be and how to price their properties?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I’m sure most people have no idea there’s even an election in May.

Just me
Guest
Just me

People with money know pretty well what is happening. We are not talking about 600k condos.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You’re sure?

You were sure that Harper would win another majority.

You were sure that Trump would flame out even before the very first primary.

Can I get an opinion from someone else, someone who isn’t a complete fucking moron on the subject of politics?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already
I guess when you’re right as infrequently as you are you need to savour the moment for as long as possible, even for events like the US Election where most of the world didn’t consider a Trump presidency to be likely. I admitted that I made the wrong call in both those situations, too. If only you could be so gracious after being so utterly wrong for 10 years about real estate. Voter turnout was greater than 50% last time, which is actually quite good. But it’s baffling you’d think that people would time listing their house due to an election. Most sellers will be buying again afterwards in the same locality, so it makes little difference unless you intend to pull all your money out of the market and rent. But if you’ve already come to that decision why… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“I guess when you’re right as infrequently as you are you are…”

Great comeback from the clown who makes not just wrong predictions, but proudly supersizes them into SUPER-WRONG predictions.

Not just Harper will win, but HARPER WILL WIN A MAJORITY!

Not just Trump won’t become president but TRUMP WILL BE GONE BY CHRISTMAS!!

Fuck, I don’t know why I even bother with you, I should just dismiss your worthless ass and “shun” you like Fake Newcomer shuns Oracle.

Shun it is, motherfucker – you’re not worth my time.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Hope you enjoyed your Friday night.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Bye, asshole. I hope you and the rest of these pricks enjoy the next 4 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55hS0FKg9a8

Slava
Member
Slava

Nice attempt at a cheeky comeback.
Sometimes it is better just to keep quiet.
This was one of those times.

Slava
Member
Slava

It is self evident on this board, that you are moron when it comes to politics.
Case closed.

yvr2zrh
Member

The listing volumes have collapsed – in any way you slice it. Something has happened to cause a very massive shift from the trend on the listing side. Listings for Feb 2017 are on track to be the second lowest ever after Feb 2009 (which we all remember). We are on track to be around 35% below the 10-year average for “Net Lists” . We have been trending along at about 10% below the 10-year average. Sales for Feb are on track for about 10% below the 10-year average. There have been some pretty weak February months including 2013 and 2009. 2012 and 2013 were also quite weak. What a strange month, however.

Just me
Guest
Just me

You can find listings in Van East and south. You can find listings in the below 800k category, or above 3 millions.
But listings between 1 million and 3 millions have evaporated. The stock offered at those prices is little and of really bad quality.

This market is not functioning anymore. Too much interference from government and mainland investors.

This is what happens when you entrust the market regulation to a Finance minister who has 8 investment properties.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Yes. That is another thing I am noticing, the emergence of Vancouver South as part of the city. The new buildings going south along our major arteries are selling at $1,000/sq ft and more which I find shocking. I thought there would be a moment when these units coming online would cause a glut?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Which brings me back to Rennie’s last statement about the market. That housing shortages will continue.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I would guess that people believe that it is a bad time to sell and that better times are coming.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Listings for Feb 2017 are on track to be the second lowest ever after Feb 2009 (which we all remember).”

Even lower than Feb 2009, actually.

“New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.6 per cent to 3,916 in February 2009 compared to February 2008, when 5,260 new units were listed. ”

3916 in 2009, on pace for 3450 this month.

Looking to buy soon
Guest
Looking to buy soon

Listing has collapsed because the seller has just received the 2017 property tax assessment and wanted to list his property only to hear the realtor telling them that he can’t get what he has hoped for… so he is confused and holdon to his hope of a quick market rebound this spring.

Hope that answered your question.

Just me
Guest
Just me

On the CBC ( better late than never). Still not reported on the Van Sun, as far as I can see.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chinese-real-estate-investor-to-repay-millions-1.3998380

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“The bank then filed a petition with a B.C. court in August 2016 seeking to recognize and enforce the Chinese arbitration award.”

“She (Duhaime) says in the past the banks have simply accepted these losses, but now because of the success of this case many more will look to recover their money.”

This is interesting because it was about the same time Krusty brought in the FBT.

I wonder which had more effect on the top end of the market collapsing and the money laundering garbage from china virtually disappearing in August – this ruling or the new tax.

Just me
Guest
Just me

This ruling has the potential to disrupt even more than the tax. The Chinese are paranoid about their money. If they perceive Vancouver RE as suddenly risky, they will certainly consider alternative.

That smirking Premier of ours must be really worried about this. Who is going to make her great electors rich? Hiw will baby boomers be able to sell their crack shacks for 3 millions, and spend the winter in Mexico or Hawaii? Tragic, really…

Slava
Member
Slava

Baby boomers (incidentally mainly anglo-saxons) and their establishment are responsible for this mess 25 years running.
They have ruined this city, and the end game is near.

Only a total real estate collapse can save the Vancouver Lower Mainland.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Entitled boomers are the worst. They vote for Christy Clark, sell out the city to the Chinese, use the money to spend the winter in Mexico or Arizona.
Then they complain about younger generations being lazy.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Have you met their children? The computer-addicted, entitled, millenials? They may be worse.

Ulsterman
Member

and then they cry about “how hard it was for them too when they bought their first Vancouver SFH!” Like, like, like, it cost them four times their joint income and they couldn’t go on a vacation for two years. Oh the hardship.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Baby Boomers are responsible for a lot more than that! Who set up the global economy and endless consumerism of not the me, me, me generation.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Ive been seeing a lot more Chinese requesting to immigrate to Caribbean countries. Clearly they are selling their homes and moving (stolen) money to offshore accounts. I’m sure the banks or authorities are after them. And they are quite desperate, wanting things done quick. How sad that they want to keep their few millions but need to go on the run. What a sad pathetic lot they are.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Good to know. What is your broad area of work, if I can ask? Just curious since you seem to be privy to Information I never read elsewhere.

Just me
Guest
Just me

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/rbc-boost-dividend-after-24-profit-growth-to-3-billion-beats-expectations

Oh, look. Another guy who thinks that Chinese money is playing an oversized role in the (Toronto) housing market. Well, I guess it must be a financially illiterate guy, after all the experts on this blog keep telling me that it’s all about locals buying multimillion dollar mansions.

““You’re seeing 20 per cent house price growth in a market where you shouldn’t see that much,” McKay said in an interview. “That’s concerning. That’s not sustainable. Therefore, I do believe we are now at a point where we need to consider similar types of measures that we saw in Vancouver.”

Toronto might be introducing the tax just when Christy Clark kills ours. The irony!

patriotz
Member

Toronto has no power to introduce a foreign buyers tax and even if it did Mayor John Tory (and most of council as far as I can see) doesn’t see today’s RE prices as a problem. Toronto has its own PTT which means the higher the prices get the more money they get.

And that goes for every provincial party (yes that includes the Ontario NDP). The big issue they are preoccupied with is Hydro rates.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Similar things had been said in Vancouver. Christy Ckark and moonbeam had both made it clear they thought such a tax would be “racist”. Ut anger in the population forced them to act.

You are underestimating how angry people are about the Chinese buying up our country. It us not only poor people getting angry. It includes one oercenters.

patriotz
Member

“You are underestimating how angry people are ”

I hope I am actually. But if I’m not, it’s very likely Christy will be re-elected.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You mean people WERE angry. We have a 15% tax now. Foreign buying has disappeared. Still local Chinese buying like other locals.

Just me
Guest
Just me

As I said many times before, the tax had an undeniable effect but it was relatively minor compared to the curbs imposed by the Chinese government on capital outflows.
In addition, there has been a slight tightening (from zero to at least something) of the rule of law in BC, meaning that courts (not Christy Clark) have started going after illegitimate investments from Chinese crooks.
If and only if these conditions persist, we might be able to see some lower prices. Unless of course Christy Clark extract another bunny from her hat and makes Vancouver an area where Chinese crooks can hide their money again.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Also, the tax is likely to be substantially scaled back ( effectively repealed) by the Clark government.

Slava
Member
Slava

It includes the working class immigrants who work and pay taxes in Canada.
If these fools think that it is only white english as first language males, they are in for a very big surprise.

Just me
Guest
Just me

And this guy keeps spending our money as if there is no tomorrow.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/ottawa-is-now-14-billion-in-the-red-compared-with-a-3-2-billion-surplus-last-year

Did he not say just a year ago that the deficit would not exceed ten billions? Between him and Christy Clark, there is nowhere to find fiscal prudence.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Plenty of tax evasion going on in principal residence exemption.

patriotz
Member

So connect the dots. Do you think a government this money hungry is going to pass up tax revenue they are legally entitled to?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The far right can’t even colour in without going over the lines – connecting the dots is a bit of a stretch.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I am neither left nor right. I really don’t care about those categories any more. I would vote for anyone that gets closer to being faithful to his/her word.

Trudeau had promised short-lived budget deficits, not exceeding a certain amount. He has more than doubled that amount and committed to expenditures that far exceed his political term. To me, that signifies he does not take his own word seriously enough.

For the record, there was no major macroeconomic shock that justifies breaking his own word. This was deliberate.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Turdeau also guaranteed, absolutely guaranteed that 2015 would be the last election under a first past the post system.

He’s a lying, traitorous, sellout scumbag like the rest of our politicians.

We need some patriots to take over this country.

Slava
Member
Slava

Describe what is left and right, simpleton, so we can have someone submit a diagnosis.

YVR
Guest
YVR

The PR declaration on income taxes tells you everything you need to know. Probably more taxes coming or at minimum more enforcement on taxes already in place.

realist
Member
realist

Sound familiar?
“How Much Money Laundering is Going On in the Housing Market? A Lot”
by Wolf Richter Feb 24, 2017
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/24/how-much-money-laundering-in-us-housing-market/

“Tough luck for New York, San Francisco, Miami…The US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) announced on Thursday that it would extend for another 180 days a “temporary” program that was due to expire on Thursday, to identify and track secret homebuyers who hide behind shell companies and “other opaque structures” for the purpose of money laundering.”

“The US housing market has been a perfect platform to launder large amounts of money, no questions asked. Brokers, banks, and other industry professionals played along…”

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

At least they talk about it for us it is a racial taboo.

Just me
Guest
Just me

We would rather condone widespread illegality than admit it is practiced mostly by a specific national group.
This is Canada in 2017, sic.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You have evidence in the form of statistics I take it?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Well, as of today I just posted an article shwoing almost half a billion dollars laundered by a single Chinese family from the mainland. As Duhaime and many others (including the CEO of RBC) have pointed out, Chinese money is significant and likely sourced illegitimately.
Draw your own conclusion.

I guess in your fantasy world someone should administer a survey to Chinese money launderers asking: “Is the source of your large money deposit legitimately sourced? YES or NO [Please put an X on the answer that best applies to your case.]

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Idiot. Talking about money laundering is not a racial taboo. Using racial slurs is, however. Should we use crayon to explain it to you once again?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

I have no doubts any longer. You aren’t acting stupid, playing games or else, you are seriously mentally challenged but somehow computer keyboard capable. Very toxic combination.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

This is how perspective works. From my point of view, you are behaving foolishly, just as Shut It says. And I cannot see what you base your criticism of Shut It on. But I am sure that you are sincere in your criticism and that you believe that you have made a strong case. We are each bounded by our perception and, while it is possible that any of us may be right when considering a limited set of information, it is certain that all of us are wrong in ways that we have not even come close to considering.

All that said, you do use racial slurs and that is, by definition, racist. If you were to stop that one habit, people would be less likely to dismiss what you say as emotional whining.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“Perception and limited set of information…” Really???

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

No, not really. Why are you using quotation marks and ellipsis like that? It’s OK if you don’t know what they mean or how to use them, but in that case, you should just leave them out entirely. Again, you get into trouble by guessing when you don’t know, rather than seeking to find out.

Do you mean, “….perception and … a limited set of information…?”

If you do, then, yes., really.

Just me
Guest
Just me

What are you ranting on about? Are you on some meducation?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yes. You should try meducation, too. I think it could transform your outlook.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Seek help.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Let’s distinguish between perception and reality. Is the case described here perception or reality?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chinese-real-estate-investor-to-repay-millions-1.3998380

Why would you think this is a marginal and isolated case, given that various people working on such cases think otherwise?
Is it your “perception” ?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Combat Roach…no sane, intelligent person believes that “locust” is an actual racial slur.

You know very that people who make such ridiculous claims have an agenda.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
People here have positions, not agendas. Nobody benefits from promoting one view over another here. This is just a blog for real estate geeks. Your thinking here is doing you a disservice. Just as CR says, “people disagree with me only because they wrongly accuse me of racism,” and thereby gets to stop considering any of the substantive reasons for which people disagree with him, when you talk about agendas, you are dodging the actual reasons behind other viewpoints. CR is probably a victim of his own thought processes and limited knowledge base, but you are easily intelligent and informed enough to know, for example, that nobody here is a paid ringer, and that nothing said here matters in any way outside of this blog. So why the intellectual laziness of taking such a stand? You’ve nothing to gain from… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Your agenda is political correctness.

Your agenda is to correct those who you believe think incorrectly.

If you could send people to re-education camps, you would.

It’s because of people like you that Trump is POTUS, not because of redneck racists.

If things go south, I won’t hestitate to put a bullets in people like you to preserve my liberty.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Actually, I am one of the least politically correct people that I know. I’m just not a douchebag. I actually agree that it is politically correct dweebs who are responsible for Trump’s victory.

How will putting bullets in me, or anyone else, preserve your liberty? What kind of situation do you imagine in your southward bound scenario?

Slava
Member
Slava

It is his poor attempt at psychological games, that are not working.

Slava
Member
Slava

It is not a racial taboo.

The lesson for the rest of us Canadians is that if you don’t bring large amounts of money to Canada from overseas, you are not not exempt from Canadian Laws.

Just me
Guest
Just me

In Canada we are whither than snow. We would never use RE to launder dirty money. After all we have thriving economy beyond RE.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

That could bring more locust scum to our shores, as the leaders of all levels of government are clearly onboard with selling us out.

Come on Trump, please liberate us from Turdeau, Clark and Mayor Qu!

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

I hope you aren’t thinking again of asking a foreign power to occupy our land with their military? What do you think Trump would think of any American inviting a foreign military to occupy America. He might just say that person was a traitor.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Sounds familiar?

The US housing market has been a perfect platform to launder large amounts of money, no questions asked. Brokers, banks, and other industry professionals played along. There were no reporting requirements. Everyone in the world knew it. And they came to launder their cash by buying expensive homes.

patriotz
Member

At one end sat Wu Xiaohui, the chairman of the Waldorf’s owner, Anbang Insurance Group, a Chinese financial behemoth with estimated assets of $285 billion and an ownership structure shrouded in mystery. Close by sat Jared Kushner, a major New York real estate investor whose father-in-law, Donald J. Trump, had just been elected president of the United States.

Jared Kushner, a Trump In-Law and Adviser, Chases a Chinese Deal

YVR
Guest
YVR

The New York Times. I am sure we are getting a fair assessment of the situation.

patriotz
Member
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver’s endangered demographic: Millennials consider leaving the city”, Vancouver Sun

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouvers-endangered-demographic-millennials-consider-leaving-the-city

“In their late 20s, they also grapple with the high costs of living. Yet Bradley and Aziz are also filmmakers who co-founded the boutique video production company Pixel Motion Films.”

“And they recently made a short documentary with a title that speaks directly to the barriers faced by young adults in Metro Vancouver. Called Vancouver’s Millennial Crisis, the five-minute film examines the economic obstacles facing this age group.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“RBC CEO says Toronto real estate market ‘not sustainable,’ company posts record net income”, Financial Post

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/rbc-boost-dividend-after-24-profit-growth-to-3-billion-beats-expectations

“The CEO of Canada’s largest bank says it is time to consider bringing measures that cooled Vancouver’s sizzling housing market to Toronto.”

“Dave McKay, the chief executive of Royal Bank of Canada, cited a “somewhat dangerous mix of catalysts” in Canada’s largest city, such as ultra-low rates, lack of supply of single family homes, speculation, and foreign money coming in at an increasing rate since Vancouver instituted measures to dampen its market, including a foreign buyers’ tax.”

YVR
Guest
YVR

At some point soon the federal government will have to act on Toronto. It is way too important to let this bubble keep inflating. Vancouver, which is already crashing, will be collateral damage.

yvr2zrh
Member

Any thoughts on this? A reliable source of mine has just told me that banks are not lending to “housewives” or “students” with50% down payments where the funding is clearly coming from overseas, there is no local income, and the source of the funding is not going on title.

I suppose it could be a policy that’s in place to ensure there are no FBT avoidance fines? or?

Either way, there is certainly a complete stop of the top-end of the market. This makes sense and will take time to continue to play out.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I would be surprised if it were true. But also happy.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

If it is happening at multiple banks one would expect a directive of some sort that would make at least the industry news.

patriotz
Member

“or?”

Or not getting their money back if prices fall. I think you’re off the mark on the FBT issue per se, lenders have no liability under it.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Any thoughts on this?

The move up buyer is not moving. When you factor in massive transactions costs and the amount you have to pay to get something even marginally better nobody can afford to move up. Move up buyers are market neutral. That is why prices are still declining with the move up buyer out.

I think you also have a bunch of speculators who bought at peak last Spring and cannot afford to crystallize the massive loss. It is cheaper in the short term to pay the holding costs rather than to sell at 100s of thousands below what you have sunk. At some point these speculators will be forced to sell.

Just me
Guest
Just me
Buynow or Getlaidnever
Guest
Buynow or Getlaidnever

Every person who owns a home in Vancouver is essentially a millionaire, according to data from BC Assessment analyzed by urban planner Andy Yan.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3270040/vancouver-homes-under-1-million-2017-extinct/

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

But only if the house is paid for.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Even if they bought the house 10 years ago and have 30 years left on their mortgage (yes, 40 year mortgages, thanks Harper), they’re still millionaires.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Yup. They won the lottery.

Abdul lahazi
Guest
Abdul lahazi

Are “they” selling?

Slava
Member
Slava

You are not millionaire until you hold that money in your hand. If it is in a house value, you have to sell and buy somewhere much cheaper to realize that money.

Good luck with that in Vancouver Lower Mainland.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Why would you have to buy again?

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

This is a gross exaggeration IMO and at best a weak justification for sitting on a high horse during a bubble. Nobody holds “money in their hand” in modern times. Wealth is always sequestered away in some form.

Real estate is less liquid than equities, but it isn’t completely illiquid. At any point in time your net worth is your assets minus liabilities. There were billionaires who saw their net worth evaporate during the financial crisis, it doesn’t mean they weren’t billionaires before the crisis.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Let’s out it thus way. Given a choice, would you have bought RE 20 years ago or an index of the TSX?

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Taking reinvested dividends into account, the TSX index has done better than most real estate.

Ulsterman
Member

Exactly. I’m so tired of people saying homeowners aren’t rich because they haven’t sold and crystallized their profits. If you have $1-2m in equity you ARE rich. You have options. Banks are falling over themselves to talk to you. If the shit hits the fan you can sell and move elsewhere. A non-owning, renter just doesn’t have this option unless of course, they’re a blog reader who is fantastically rich from their amazing investing prowess…

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

If the SHTF a renter can pack up and move easily; the homeowner has to sell their shack first and if the economy is bad that will be a hard sell. It is well known that a society of homeowners is not a mobile labour force.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Not a major problem for people with 1-2 M in equity. Move, let the realtor take care of it and get on with your life. Problem solved. Of course, the renter with 1-2 M in cash has one less headache, but I’d still rather be an owner with 1M in house equity than, a renter with smaller nest egg in cash.

Just me
Guest
Just me

You oay zero taxes on RE capital gains.
Check your tax returns to see how much the giverment is getting out of your “liquid” investments.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Which it probably won’t be, because we know HELOC usage is incredibly high.

david
Guest
david

The ABC News website has a story about the “controversy” that the soon-to-be opened Trump Tower in Vancouver is causing….because Vancouver is so cosmopolitan, immigrant-friendly and tolerant. Some city councillors are now in a tizzy.

The article fails to mention a rather glaring issue: that Vancouver is one of the very best places on Earth for real estate hucksters, crooks, and flim-flam artist to make a quick buck. If anything,

The fact that Donald Trump is THIS late to the game here is more evidence he’s a complete putz of a businessman.

The “moral outrage” argument is cute and self-gratifying for locals, but Vancouver real estate devlopment remains a foreigner con artist’s dream.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Trump has just licensed his brand name to this project; he is not involved in any other way.

YVR
Guest
YVR

The fact that Donald Trump is THIS late to the game here is more evidence he’s a complete putz of a businessman.

Trump tower sold out last year at peak pricing and actually sold for record $ per sq ft for a condo in Vancouver. Trump has already been paid for his licensing deal. The snowflakes who are protesting are not the target market.

david
Guest
david

YVR you sound like a young Warren Buffett. Thanks for slumming.

patriotz
Member

” he is not involved in any other way. ”

Quite obviously he is, as there is a Trump hotel on the property. The hotel is a tenant though. The same setup in Toronto has led to condo owners suing the developer – successfully -due to terms unfavourable to them.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/10/13/ontario-appeal-court-ruling-sides-with-trump-tower-investors.html

YVR
Guest
YVR

The Trump Toronto project sold the hotel rooms as strata’s. That is the part that sued. Strata hotels are always losers. In Vancouver the hotel rooms are owned by the developer. Trump gets paid a licensing fee for the project and a management fee for the hotel. That is it.

Trump has no direct stake in the court decision. He has never owned any share of the building, but he licensed the use of his name on the development.

Patiently Waiting
Member
Patiently Waiting

I’m thinking maybe the real estate industry is discouraging listings until after the election. The average house seller may not be politically aware, but the agents are.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

That would be absurd. In a low volume market why turn away a potential sale during the peak buying season? The extra commission, if prices indeed climb after the election, would surely be negligible. Simply not worth the risk.

Just me
Guest
Just me

True. This us the sellers holding up, not the agents.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Correct. And it’s because:

A) they think prices will climb further
or
B) they can’t afford to move-up

I’m sure it’s a combination of the two, and fail to see that A would make B even worse.

Brian Ripley
Guest
Vancouver Listings 7K yes, but so have sales collapsed, almost at the January 2013 lows. What appears to be more dynamic is the Monthly Absorption Rate and Months of Inventory: http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html Both are showing signs of trend reversals. The former (MAR) has decelerated very sharply and the latter (MOI) has surpassed Calgary and has diverged from running parallel with Toronto for about a year. This suggests to me that the market has definitely peaked with not enough buyers to retest the highs especially in the SFD sector. Condos of course might see a crackup high this spring thanks to Ms Clark’s helicopter drop. I use total listings not new listings added to arrive at my MOI and MAR plots. 2Q will give us more evidence of trend direction. We will be deep into the Trump Budget and U.S. Fed-Speak by… Read more »
UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

New on the market (big flip after less than a year?), and it looks like all for the lot values.

5570 Chancellor Blvd, UBC, listed $7,180,000 (assessed $5,683,100)
History: 15/Jun/2016 sold for $5,720,000

5590 Chancellor Blvd, UBC, listed $7,580,000 (assessed $6,134,000)
History: 10/Jan/2016 sold for $5,100,000

YVR
Guest
YVR

For a flip you need to sell it. No way these places sell for anywhere near those prices.

Just me
Guest
Just me

How do you know?

YVR
Guest
YVR

I know everything. Check these listings in a month and they will still be there. They may sell if they dropped the price by 50%.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Ok. Let’s in a month.
For the record, I hope you are right but I suspect you are not.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

These high priced UBC listings don’t sell, they languish and get de-listed.

There was 1 sale this month and the next most recent sale was back in October.

15 such listings are sitting there getting no attention.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Until Xi Jinping opens the spigots again. Perhaps after his confirmation next November.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Potential Homeowners To Face The Wrath of CMHC Hike”, HiBusiness

http://hibusiness.ca/2017/02/25/potential-homeowners-to-face-the-wrath-of-cmhc-hike/

“Things are about to get worst for Canada’s potential first time buyers as the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation have decided to increase mortgage insurance premiums for the third time in the past years. Hopeful home-buyers will have to worry about more than just increased home prices in the blazing housing markets. Premiums for borrowers with a loan-to-value ratio up to 95 per cent will go up by 4 per cent as at March 17.”

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Typically missing the point that withdrawing CMHC subsidies is the very thing that will cool blazing markets. Sigh.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

There are hordes of people who think that tightening lending policy will hurt affordability. This is immensely frustrating.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Agreed.
It is a bit like saying there are loads of people who still vote for Christy Clark. Although one is never quite sure how many have figured out her scam lending help and vote her exactly because they benefit from it.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
As patriotz has said many times, many people vote for the Liberals because they are happy with their policies. Many are baby boomers (likely both yours and my parents and relatives will vote Liberal). Many of your friends and colleagues who own real estate, work in real estate, or else like low taxes (like YVR) will vote Liberal. I’m ready for a change and want to see what the NDP can pull off. And unlike YVR, I don’t mind paying taxes. What I don’t want is for MSP rates to be lowered based on T4 incomes since we know that can benefit millionaire homeowners who declare no income. The NDP is the only party that has ever talked about any means testing based on more than reported income and I like that very much. I did write to my Liberal… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I can see your point on principle, but how many millionaire tax cheats are there out there? 4000? Certainly not more than 40,000? So certainly not more than 1% of the population? At a MSP policy level, that is negligible. There are bigger fish to fry.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Could you expand on what those bigger fish would be?

I don’t consider MSP a burden (I pay it in full and without complaint or reluctance), I think everyone should pay for it to some degree (based on ability), and I think it is our individual responsibility to use services sparingly and only when truly needed. The health care system in general is constantly under budget pressure and the Feds are not committed to giving us more than a few percent increase per year over the next 5 years.

And unless the BC Liberals have done away with them, the MSP has always had subsidies for low income earners. So my primary concern with MSP is that those with more ability to pay should pay, and pay more.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Well, I gues his point is exactly that there are a few thousands Chinese millionaires families (or more tens of thousands by now) who get the services but pay close to nothing.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
Income tax evasion is responsible for a massive loss of revenue. The odd millionaire not paying MSP is a very small fish compared to that. Even the property tax deferrals are of more importance than millionaires not paying MSP. In fact, I cannot think of a fiscal issue of lesser importance. Can you? The MSP is just another way of labeling tax. It’s a tinsy tiny percentage of the total tax bill that most of us pay. If they collect less through MSP it just comes from other revenues. Changes to MSP are irrelevant window dressing. BTW, it is a good idea to see your doctor early rather than try to cut down on visits. That is why your doctor tells you as much. People who avoid the doctor cost the system more by leaving things until they get to… Read more »
Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
Sorry Newcomer, you wrote “At a MSP policy level, that is negligible” so I thought you meant there were bigger fish to fry in MSP premiums than introducing means testing. I should mention that you took this conversation towards tax evasion which is not my original intent. When I say millionaire homeowners who declare no income I include the many legitimate homeowners who have no taxable income. I only mentioned a means test is easy to implement and would help make MSP more fair by not giving such people a pass. I also don’t think that we should marginalize the importance of the MSP for funding health care. The province spent $15.5B in the Ministry of Health. MSP premiums came up to around $3B. This is 30% of our Ministry of Health budget covered by MSP Premiums. Cutting that to… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I think that would be 20%, but you are right, 3B is not negligible and even one percent of that would be a significant chunk of change.

I’m not at all against wealth testing for government supplements, it’s just that my first priority would be going after undeclared (worldwide) income, cheating on the principal residence exemption, cooked company books, and so on.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Many are baby boomers (likely both yours and my parents and relatives will vote Liberal). Many of your friends and colleagues who own real estate, work in real estate, or else like low taxes (like YVR) will vote Liberal.

Baby boomers, real estate owners and those that like low taxes will vote Liberal? I think you just covered 90% of the voting population. I guess the NDP still have Just Me and the crack heads on the DT eastside who may vote for them.

Just me
Guest
Just me

It will be very interesting to see the many different ways the BC Libs will slowly make life even harder for people like you over the next four years.

You vote them because you are fixated on ideological lines. You also think (mistakenly) that they will save you some money.

Christy Clark knows that there are people like you out there, and she takes full advantage of it. Once in office, she will simply ignore you and keep on with her Chinese-friendly and developers-fruendly agenda.

YVR
Guest
YVR

There are hordes of people who think that tightening lending policy will hurt affordability.

You are confusing what people say and what people think. There is a difference.

patriotz
Member

Perhaps you are confusing people in the RE industry, who know that tighter lending will lead to lower prices but say otherwise, and the general public, who we know rush to buy before tighter lending goes into effect.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Not just RE industry, but connected industry like banks, politicians and the media who parrot their commentary. Those are the people that you hear commenting. The general public who rush to buy before tighter lending goes into effect do so because they would not qualify or would have less favorable loans otherwise. It has nothing to do with their opinion on the price effect of tighter lending policy. I think they would feel a lower price is meaningless to them if they can’t buy anyway due to tighter lending.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

For the most part, when the majority of buyers see their ability to buy drop by $100k, prices will likely drop by $100k sometime afterwards.

The exact same person who could have bought at $600k instead can buy the same product at $500k. The problem is that people are not long term thinkers and can only see the short term, plus there’s a lot of FOMO (I’ve felt it too).

Just me
Guest
Just me

We have been saying this for years on the blog. But we still get a few moronic comments to the contrary.

Some people prefer fantasies to reality.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

So 4% of3.5% on a $300,000 mortgage is equal to $420 paid off over 25 years?

Less than $2/months and they call it wrath??

But dumb sheep will read it as that cause they can’t do math.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Christine Duhaime Tweets: “DHS says illicit funds are used to buy luxury homes in “every 2nd case” they handle. I bet its the same in VanRE.”
“FinCEN says 30% of luxury home buyers were named in a “suspicious transaction report” for money laundering.”

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I don’t know where she is drawing the line for “luxury,” but the number of people with 10 M or more legitimately sourced money to spend on a house is quite low.

Just me
Guest
Just me

True. You just confirmed that several thousands residents of Vancouver (mostly from Mainland China) are using illegitimate money.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Duh.

Just me
Guest
Just me

DHS = Department of Homeland Security.
These guys are not amateurs. They know what they are talking about. And so do Canadian agencies: for reasons beyond me, they keep deliberately ignoring the fact that Chinese use our country as a Banana Republic to launder money.

Probably there is a mixture of self-interest and fear to be labeled racist. Whatever the reaon, in the last 15 years Chinese mainlanders have abused the system. New evidence of this emerges almost every single day.

Slava
Member
Slava

They are ignoring as they are pathetic WHORES for money and they do not want to know where it is from.

patriotz
Member

“every 2nd case” they handle.

That is, every 2nd case they think warrants investigation, not every 2nd purchase.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Well, by the same token, I am sure they are not abke to follow up on all potential cases that might deserve wttention. So, the reported number would still be a lower bound of the true number of cases involving Chinese millionaires laundering money.

Each of such cases may run in the tens of millions or more, as we have seen recently. You do the math.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Sadly the crackdown in the US will only drive more money here. The Chinese view the CRA as a joke but the fear the IRS big time.

This means the legitimate Chinese money will likely flow to the US and will get the criminals.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

How did you gain your insight into the collective view of the world’s tax agencies by the Chinese?

Just me
Guest
Just me

His point is simple. Chinese money follows the oath of keast resistance.
Vancouver is not resusting at all.

Van real estate buff
Guest
Van real estate buff

Feb 25, 2017 Daily video Review of Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News

https://youtu.be/WBJiWnFW5LA

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

another self-serving-advertising youtube clip!

Just me
Guest
Just me

These videos hit you right where it hurts, hey?
I think they are great! Keep them coming.
We need to educate the residents of Vancouver and infirm them, since the MSM are not doing a great job of that.

fomostyle
Guest
fomostyle

Don’t know how I missed this last year. Wonder if luxury Opus Hotel in Richmond still going ahead??

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/04/vancouver-property-developer-wanted-interpol-chinese-corruption/

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

https://www.ft.com/content/02c97b84-c185-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354

Tide of Chinese apartment buyers slows in Australia
Regulators crack down on foreign lending amid fears of property price bubble

patriotz
Member

That headline should be “amid fears of property price bubble bursting if it gets too big.”

YVR
Guest
YVR

Which you have to think Toronto going parabolic leading into Spring is making the federal government freak out right now.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
For everyone (like Oracle) who is gloating about the continued heat in condos and Valley RE, I wonder what your thoughts are on the reversal of the “trickle down effect” and the slowdown of downsizing as a result of current low listings and sales. We’ve often seen suggestions for instance that sellers will simply pack up and wait until the market gets better. We all know that a segment of the market always has to sell (due to age, illness, death, financial strain, sudden change in financial standing, etc). These sellers will have to keep lowering prices until they find someone willing and capable of buying their homes. We also know that part of the market in the surrounding suburbs and in condos is the trickle down from downsizers. If all the potential downsizers are suddenly shy of selling their… Read more »
Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

It’s looking like people will keep buying as long as the banks let them. Even when the condo market starts to fall, as long as mortgages are available, I would not be surprised to see FTB snapping up “bargains.”

Sooner or later, however, I imagine that the banks will tighten lending standards.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Me gloating? Good grief. And I bet you believe that Newcomer YVR and Shut it are here to have an intelligent conversation.

Face palm.

They are playing you guys. Only stupidity can be played. Good grief.

wpDiscuz