Friday Free-for-all! February 24 2017

Hey, what’s going on?

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all! 

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, normally we post links to kick off the chat here, but this time it’s up to you!

What are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend! 

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southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Vancouver’s endangered demographic: Millennials consider leaving the city”, Vancouver Sun

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouvers-endangered-demographic-millennials-consider-leaving-the-city

“In their late 20s, they also grapple with the high costs of living. Yet Bradley and Aziz are also filmmakers who co-founded the boutique video production company Pixel Motion Films.”

“And they recently made a short documentary with a title that speaks directly to the barriers faced by young adults in Metro Vancouver. Called Vancouver’s Millennial Crisis, the five-minute film examines the economic obstacles facing this age group.”

realist
Member
realist

Sound familiar?
“How Much Money Laundering is Going On in the Housing Market? A Lot”
by Wolf Richter Feb 24, 2017
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/24/how-much-money-laundering-in-us-housing-market/

“Tough luck for New York, San Francisco, Miami…The US Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) announced on Thursday that it would extend for another 180 days a “temporary” program that was due to expire on Thursday, to identify and track secret homebuyers who hide behind shell companies and “other opaque structures” for the purpose of money laundering.”

“The US housing market has been a perfect platform to launder large amounts of money, no questions asked. Brokers, banks, and other industry professionals played along…”

patriotz
Member

At one end sat Wu Xiaohui, the chairman of the Waldorf’s owner, Anbang Insurance Group, a Chinese financial behemoth with estimated assets of $285 billion and an ownership structure shrouded in mystery. Close by sat Jared Kushner, a major New York real estate investor whose father-in-law, Donald J. Trump, had just been elected president of the United States.

Jared Kushner, a Trump In-Law and Adviser, Chases a Chinese Deal

YVR
Guest
YVR

The New York Times. I am sure we are getting a fair assessment of the situation.

patriotz
Member
Just me
Guest
Just me

Sounds familiar?

The US housing market has been a perfect platform to launder large amounts of money, no questions asked. Brokers, banks, and other industry professionals played along. There were no reporting requirements. Everyone in the world knew it. And they came to launder their cash by buying expensive homes.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

That could bring more locust scum to our shores, as the leaders of all levels of government are clearly onboard with selling us out.

Come on Trump, please liberate us from Turdeau, Clark and Mayor Qu!

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

I hope you aren’t thinking again of asking a foreign power to occupy our land with their military? What do you think Trump would think of any American inviting a foreign military to occupy America. He might just say that person was a traitor.

Just me
Guest
Just me

In Canada we are whither than snow. We would never use RE to launder dirty money. After all we have thriving economy beyond RE.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

At least they talk about it for us it is a racial taboo.

Slava
Member
Slava

It is not a racial taboo.

The lesson for the rest of us Canadians is that if you don’t bring large amounts of money to Canada from overseas, you are not not exempt from Canadian Laws.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Idiot. Talking about money laundering is not a racial taboo. Using racial slurs is, however. Should we use crayon to explain it to you once again?

Slava
Member
Slava

It is his poor attempt at psychological games, that are not working.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

I have no doubts any longer. You aren’t acting stupid, playing games or else, you are seriously mentally challenged but somehow computer keyboard capable. Very toxic combination.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Combat Roach…no sane, intelligent person believes that “locust” is an actual racial slur.

You know very that people who make such ridiculous claims have an agenda.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer
People here have positions, not agendas. Nobody benefits from promoting one view over another here. This is just a blog for real estate geeks. Your thinking here is doing you a disservice. Just as CR says, “people disagree with me only because they wrongly accuse me of racism,” and thereby gets to stop considering any of the substantive reasons for which people disagree with him, when you talk about agendas, you are dodging the actual reasons behind other viewpoints. CR is probably a victim of his own thought processes and limited knowledge base, but you are easily intelligent and informed enough to know, for example, that nobody here is a paid ringer, and that nothing said here matters in any way outside of this blog. So why the intellectual laziness of taking such a stand? You’ve nothing to gain from… Read more »
Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Your agenda is political correctness.

Your agenda is to correct those who you believe think incorrectly.

If you could send people to re-education camps, you would.

It’s because of people like you that Trump is POTUS, not because of redneck racists.

If things go south, I won’t hestitate to put a bullets in people like you to preserve my liberty.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Actually, I am one of the least politically correct people that I know. I’m just not a douchebag. I actually agree that it is politically correct dweebs who are responsible for Trump’s victory.

How will putting bullets in me, or anyone else, preserve your liberty? What kind of situation do you imagine in your southward bound scenario?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

This is how perspective works. From my point of view, you are behaving foolishly, just as Shut It says. And I cannot see what you base your criticism of Shut It on. But I am sure that you are sincere in your criticism and that you believe that you have made a strong case. We are each bounded by our perception and, while it is possible that any of us may be right when considering a limited set of information, it is certain that all of us are wrong in ways that we have not even come close to considering.

All that said, you do use racial slurs and that is, by definition, racist. If you were to stop that one habit, people would be less likely to dismiss what you say as emotional whining.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Let’s distinguish between perception and reality. Is the case described here perception or reality?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chinese-real-estate-investor-to-repay-millions-1.3998380

Why would you think this is a marginal and isolated case, given that various people working on such cases think otherwise?
Is it your “perception” ?

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

“Perception and limited set of information…” Really???

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

No, not really. Why are you using quotation marks and ellipsis like that? It’s OK if you don’t know what they mean or how to use them, but in that case, you should just leave them out entirely. Again, you get into trouble by guessing when you don’t know, rather than seeking to find out.

Do you mean, “….perception and … a limited set of information…?”

If you do, then, yes., really.

Just me
Guest
Just me

What are you ranting on about? Are you on some meducation?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Yes. You should try meducation, too. I think it could transform your outlook.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Seek help.

Just me
Guest
Just me

We would rather condone widespread illegality than admit it is practiced mostly by a specific national group.
This is Canada in 2017, sic.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You have evidence in the form of statistics I take it?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Well, as of today I just posted an article shwoing almost half a billion dollars laundered by a single Chinese family from the mainland. As Duhaime and many others (including the CEO of RBC) have pointed out, Chinese money is significant and likely sourced illegitimately.
Draw your own conclusion.

I guess in your fantasy world someone should administer a survey to Chinese money launderers asking: “Is the source of your large money deposit legitimately sourced? YES or NO [Please put an X on the answer that best applies to your case.]

Just me
Guest
Just me

And this guy keeps spending our money as if there is no tomorrow.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/ottawa-is-now-14-billion-in-the-red-compared-with-a-3-2-billion-surplus-last-year

Did he not say just a year ago that the deficit would not exceed ten billions? Between him and Christy Clark, there is nowhere to find fiscal prudence.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Plenty of tax evasion going on in principal residence exemption.

patriotz
Member

So connect the dots. Do you think a government this money hungry is going to pass up tax revenue they are legally entitled to?

YVR
Guest
YVR

The PR declaration on income taxes tells you everything you need to know. Probably more taxes coming or at minimum more enforcement on taxes already in place.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

The far right can’t even colour in without going over the lines – connecting the dots is a bit of a stretch.

Slava
Member
Slava

Describe what is left and right, simpleton, so we can have someone submit a diagnosis.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I am neither left nor right. I really don’t care about those categories any more. I would vote for anyone that gets closer to being faithful to his/her word.

Trudeau had promised short-lived budget deficits, not exceeding a certain amount. He has more than doubled that amount and committed to expenditures that far exceed his political term. To me, that signifies he does not take his own word seriously enough.

For the record, there was no major macroeconomic shock that justifies breaking his own word. This was deliberate.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Turdeau also guaranteed, absolutely guaranteed that 2015 would be the last election under a first past the post system.

He’s a lying, traitorous, sellout scumbag like the rest of our politicians.

We need some patriots to take over this country.

Just me
Guest
Just me

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/rbc-boost-dividend-after-24-profit-growth-to-3-billion-beats-expectations

Oh, look. Another guy who thinks that Chinese money is playing an oversized role in the (Toronto) housing market. Well, I guess it must be a financially illiterate guy, after all the experts on this blog keep telling me that it’s all about locals buying multimillion dollar mansions.

““You’re seeing 20 per cent house price growth in a market where you shouldn’t see that much,” McKay said in an interview. “That’s concerning. That’s not sustainable. Therefore, I do believe we are now at a point where we need to consider similar types of measures that we saw in Vancouver.”

Toronto might be introducing the tax just when Christy Clark kills ours. The irony!

patriotz
Member

Toronto has no power to introduce a foreign buyers tax and even if it did Mayor John Tory (and most of council as far as I can see) doesn’t see today’s RE prices as a problem. Toronto has its own PTT which means the higher the prices get the more money they get.

And that goes for every provincial party (yes that includes the Ontario NDP). The big issue they are preoccupied with is Hydro rates.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Similar things had been said in Vancouver. Christy Ckark and moonbeam had both made it clear they thought such a tax would be “racist”. Ut anger in the population forced them to act.

You are underestimating how angry people are about the Chinese buying up our country. It us not only poor people getting angry. It includes one oercenters.

Slava
Member
Slava

It includes the working class immigrants who work and pay taxes in Canada.
If these fools think that it is only white english as first language males, they are in for a very big surprise.

YVR
Guest
YVR

You mean people WERE angry. We have a 15% tax now. Foreign buying has disappeared. Still local Chinese buying like other locals.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Also, the tax is likely to be substantially scaled back ( effectively repealed) by the Clark government.

Just me
Guest
Just me

As I said many times before, the tax had an undeniable effect but it was relatively minor compared to the curbs imposed by the Chinese government on capital outflows.
In addition, there has been a slight tightening (from zero to at least something) of the rule of law in BC, meaning that courts (not Christy Clark) have started going after illegitimate investments from Chinese crooks.
If and only if these conditions persist, we might be able to see some lower prices. Unless of course Christy Clark extract another bunny from her hat and makes Vancouver an area where Chinese crooks can hide their money again.

patriotz
Member

“You are underestimating how angry people are ”

I hope I am actually. But if I’m not, it’s very likely Christy will be re-elected.

Just me
Guest
Just me

On the CBC ( better late than never). Still not reported on the Van Sun, as far as I can see.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chinese-real-estate-investor-to-repay-millions-1.3998380

Kim
Guest
Kim

Ive been seeing a lot more Chinese requesting to immigrate to Caribbean countries. Clearly they are selling their homes and moving (stolen) money to offshore accounts. I’m sure the banks or authorities are after them. And they are quite desperate, wanting things done quick. How sad that they want to keep their few millions but need to go on the run. What a sad pathetic lot they are.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Good to know. What is your broad area of work, if I can ask? Just curious since you seem to be privy to Information I never read elsewhere.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“The bank then filed a petition with a B.C. court in August 2016 seeking to recognize and enforce the Chinese arbitration award.”

“She (Duhaime) says in the past the banks have simply accepted these losses, but now because of the success of this case many more will look to recover their money.”

This is interesting because it was about the same time Krusty brought in the FBT.

I wonder which had more effect on the top end of the market collapsing and the money laundering garbage from china virtually disappearing in August – this ruling or the new tax.

Just me
Guest
Just me

This ruling has the potential to disrupt even more than the tax. The Chinese are paranoid about their money. If they perceive Vancouver RE as suddenly risky, they will certainly consider alternative.

That smirking Premier of ours must be really worried about this. Who is going to make her great electors rich? Hiw will baby boomers be able to sell their crack shacks for 3 millions, and spend the winter in Mexico or Hawaii? Tragic, really…

Slava
Member
Slava

Baby boomers (incidentally mainly anglo-saxons) and their establishment are responsible for this mess 25 years running.
They have ruined this city, and the end game is near.

Only a total real estate collapse can save the Vancouver Lower Mainland.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Baby Boomers are responsible for a lot more than that! Who set up the global economy and endless consumerism of not the me, me, me generation.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Entitled boomers are the worst. They vote for Christy Clark, sell out the city to the Chinese, use the money to spend the winter in Mexico or Arizona.
Then they complain about younger generations being lazy.

Ulsterman
Member

and then they cry about “how hard it was for them too when they bought their first Vancouver SFH!” Like, like, like, it cost them four times their joint income and they couldn’t go on a vacation for two years. Oh the hardship.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Have you met their children? The computer-addicted, entitled, millenials? They may be worse.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Listings have collapsed….why?

Are potential sellers waiting until May 9th to figure out what their next move should be and how to price their properties?

Looking to buy soon
Guest
Looking to buy soon

Listing has collapsed because the seller has just received the 2017 property tax assessment and wanted to list his property only to hear the realtor telling them that he can’t get what he has hoped for… so he is confused and holdon to his hope of a quick market rebound this spring.

Hope that answered your question.

yvr2zrh
Member

The listing volumes have collapsed – in any way you slice it. Something has happened to cause a very massive shift from the trend on the listing side. Listings for Feb 2017 are on track to be the second lowest ever after Feb 2009 (which we all remember). We are on track to be around 35% below the 10-year average for “Net Lists” . We have been trending along at about 10% below the 10-year average. Sales for Feb are on track for about 10% below the 10-year average. There have been some pretty weak February months including 2013 and 2009. 2012 and 2013 were also quite weak. What a strange month, however.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“Listings for Feb 2017 are on track to be the second lowest ever after Feb 2009 (which we all remember).”

Even lower than Feb 2009, actually.

“New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 25.6 per cent to 3,916 in February 2009 compared to February 2008, when 5,260 new units were listed. ”

3916 in 2009, on pace for 3450 this month.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

I would guess that people believe that it is a bad time to sell and that better times are coming.

Just me
Guest
Just me

You can find listings in Van East and south. You can find listings in the below 800k category, or above 3 millions.
But listings between 1 million and 3 millions have evaporated. The stock offered at those prices is little and of really bad quality.

This market is not functioning anymore. Too much interference from government and mainland investors.

This is what happens when you entrust the market regulation to a Finance minister who has 8 investment properties.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Yes. That is another thing I am noticing, the emergence of Vancouver South as part of the city. The new buildings going south along our major arteries are selling at $1,000/sq ft and more which I find shocking. I thought there would be a moment when these units coming online would cause a glut?

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Which brings me back to Rennie’s last statement about the market. That housing shortages will continue.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I’m sure most people have no idea there’s even an election in May.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

You’re sure?

You were sure that Harper would win another majority.

You were sure that Trump would flame out even before the very first primary.

Can I get an opinion from someone else, someone who isn’t a complete fucking moron on the subject of politics?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already
I guess when you’re right as infrequently as you are you need to savour the moment for as long as possible, even for events like the US Election where most of the world didn’t consider a Trump presidency to be likely. I admitted that I made the wrong call in both those situations, too. If only you could be so gracious after being so utterly wrong for 10 years about real estate. Voter turnout was greater than 50% last time, which is actually quite good. But it’s baffling you’d think that people would time listing their house due to an election. Most sellers will be buying again afterwards in the same locality, so it makes little difference unless you intend to pull all your money out of the market and rent. But if you’ve already come to that decision why… Read more »
Slava
Member
Slava

It is self evident on this board, that you are moron when it comes to politics.
Case closed.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“I guess when you’re right as infrequently as you are you are…”

Great comeback from the clown who makes not just wrong predictions, but proudly supersizes them into SUPER-WRONG predictions.

Not just Harper will win, but HARPER WILL WIN A MAJORITY!

Not just Trump won’t become president but TRUMP WILL BE GONE BY CHRISTMAS!!

Fuck, I don’t know why I even bother with you, I should just dismiss your worthless ass and “shun” you like Fake Newcomer shuns Oracle.

Shun it is, motherfucker – you’re not worth my time.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Hope you enjoyed your Friday night.

Slava
Member
Slava

Nice attempt at a cheeky comeback.
Sometimes it is better just to keep quiet.
This was one of those times.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Bye, asshole. I hope you and the rest of these pricks enjoy the next 4 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55hS0FKg9a8

Just me
Guest
Just me

People with money know pretty well what is happening. We are not talking about 600k condos.

MLS watch
Guest
MLS watch

8 000 Chinese millionaires and 12 000 millionaires from France moved to Canada last year. Students from Muslim countries now willing to study in Canada rather than in the US. In my field, the competition for jobs went up one order of magnitude since Trump, with senior US staff applying for jobs in Canada. I am not happy with those news, but I must deal with it: we are past the point of no return.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Wrong. The French millionaires went to other countries. I read that article.

The Chinese millionaires mostly cane to canada.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Betcha not one of the millionaires from France came to Vancouver.

Just me
Guest
Just me

They wanted to emigrate to Canada, not to China.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Sorry Vancouver, according to Juwai, Toronto is now the “most sought-after Canadian city by Chinese buyers” for real estate displacing Vancouver from No. 1.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Locust evolved and became more resilient to cold…

Just me
Guest
Just me

With a bit of luck they will never comeback here.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Sorry Vancouver?

More like sorry Toronto.

Poor bastards, having to deal with that shit.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Suggesting that people using Juwai are chasing appreciation.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

+ 1. They are momentum buyers which is why I don’t celebrate price declines anymore.

paulb
Member

New
129
Price Change
30
Sold
108

TI:7987

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

WOW.

7K Party!

Also heard condo sold for $200,000 over asking yesterday. Can you confirm Paulb?

Just me
Guest
Just me
By the way, the inventory on the West side is as low as I have ever seen it. If you restrict attention to properties below 2.5 millions and with at least 3 bedrooms (say, 1400sqft or more) you actually can count them properties using your hands. Some people claim that many sellers are holding on before listing, hoping for Chinese buyers to appear again. My view is different: a large chunk of the property stock has been effectively removed from the market because it is being held by absent mainland “investors” who do not care about renting out or selling it. For these individuals those houses are like gold bricks and any taxation is just a cost of doing business. I hope to be wrong, but if my hypothesis is even partly correct, we have passed the point of no… Read more »
ostritch
Member
ostritch

I have been looking at what sells in the 700K to .5 million segment. It’s like there’s been a nuclear blast taking out all the decent properties. It sounds shocking how really ugly, leaky questionable stuff is getting high prices.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“If you restrict attention to properties below 2.5 millions”

Of course you’re not going to find much at that price, it’s been that way for the last 2 years.

Most of what’s selling on the west side is the low end, just like most sales in the broader market and it’s been dragging the average price down.

Benchmark is down 200K from peak, average is down 800K.

Other than that sub 2.5M segment, inventory on the west side is pretty high.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Yet, it is stunning tgat we now routinely consider 2.5 millions as the basic threshold for decent accommodation. This is niw normal.

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

yes, we have passed the point of no return.

Watch as this blog spews the same info in 12 months time. Its been 8 months since the FBT.

Remember when i said inventory is going to hit 7K? Now there is a possibility of hitting 7K in MARCH!!!

Banned Oracle
Guest
Banned Oracle

Bingo.

Every month, about 2000 millionaires from China arrive (via students/QIIP/regular immigrant entry). They will invest in condos/townhomes after getting PR BUT will live in SFD homes as soon as they buy.

They will not put that on detached home back on the market again. Thus as time goes by, you will see less and less Vancouver detached homes being sold. Speculation of foreign money will go towards multi-family. Thats what is happening now as locals buying condos are getting priced out.

The sheep will think prices are falling because ‘average’ price down. The idiots can’t see its the sales mix causing it.

Local renters are doomed in Vancouver. If they move south of Fraser, good luck commuting 4 hours a day.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

What you say is very possibly true. They just don’t sell. It’s always Johnny Appleseed putting his place on the market thinking it’s the top or better get out before it falls. Foreign money just holds.

Owe B.C.
Guest
Owe B.C.

In the budget released on Feb. 21, 2017 the B.C. government is expecting a budget surplus of $295 million in the 2017/18 fiscal year. In this same 2017/18 fiscal year they are expecting the total provincial debt to increase by $3.1 billion, up to $69.7 billion.

They are expecting a budget surplus of $244 million in the 2018/19 fiscal year. In this same 2018/19 fiscal year they are expecting the total provincial debt to increase by $3.7 billion, up to $73.4 billion.

They are expecting a budget surplus of $223 million in the 2019/20 fiscal year. In this same 2019/20 fiscal year they are expecting the total provincial debt to increase by $4.2 billion, up to $77.6 billion.

(First and second tables at the following link:)

http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/PT/dmb/ref/debtSummary.pdf

Just me
Guest
Just me

This is well know. Effective Provincial debt has doubled in the last 15 years under the BC Libs. However they are free to claim that they have achieved a debt reduction because the split the debt in two components (current account and capital account). The one on the capital account has grown enormously under Christy Clark.

Did you really trust Christy Clark that she would do something in our interest?