Friday Free-for-all! February 3rd 2017

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all.

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Home sales plunge 40%
Foreign buyer tax zone effect
12 WTF charts
REBGV monthly report
FBT and real estate donations

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

When Stephen Poloz says ‘uncertainty’ a dozen times, listen: Signs flashing loonie surge has gone too far, too fast
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/when-he-says-uncertainty-a-dozen-times-listen-signs-flashing-loonie-surge-has-gone-too-far-too-fast

Dave
Member
I think we would have been wise to incur a recession a couple years ago when oil crashed rather than cutting interest rates which caused housing to boom in Vancouver and Toronto. If the market eventually crashes and people suffer for it, I put the blame on Poloz. I think he is an idiot. When our dollar crashed with oil, he predicted that our exports would increase significantly. At the time, I predicted that wouldn’t happen because our dollar had already taken a 15% hit from par to $0.85, which was already maximum stimulus. I was correct in this and the central bankers were shocked the low dollar did little for exports. Likewise, I think he’s wrong that an increase of $0.05 from the low 70’s will hurt our exports. It’s not as if he doesn’t have the benefit of… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

Good analysis. I could not agree more.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

at the end of the day it’s all about the too big to fail housing market and the RE cartel that wants to keep prices heading upwards

franko
Member
franko

I wouldn’t worry too much about Poloz, Dave. The financial world pays no attention to him. Previous BOC governors have always realised that their job was to follow the FED and that it did not come with any real clout, hence they had just talked the talk with a nudge and a wink. Sadly, what makes Poloz an “idiot” is that he is not aware that the buttons he is pushing are not really connected to anything.

Dave
Member
I think he’s dumb enough to cut rates again, so that’s my worry. In my opinion, he’s focussed and talking about the wrong things. He’s stuck on the CAD and thinks the link to exports and hence economic growth is strong and he’s wrong about that. I can a scenario where he cuts rates. Let’s say our dollar goes above $0.80 and we get a low economic growth and inflation report with weak job growth numbers. This guy will cut in that scenario. And that scenario is completely plausible. Low economic growth, low inflation and weak jobs are pretty much the norm so we’ll get that at some point. So the only real unknown I see is whether the dollar is above $0.80 when we get those soft numbers. I’d say there is a 1 in 3 chance of that.… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

You are fully correct. Poloz got it all wrong, and is likely to add to the original mistake. Not sue whther he really believes he can stimulate exports that way. The evidence is clearing piling up against him, but he does not seem to care.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

The 5 yr Govt bond has moved from 0.75% pre Trump victory to a high of 1.20% and now sits around 1.10%. I don’t think a cut would have any effect on mortgage rates. The market says they are going higher and the banks have no interest in cutting. They will not pass on any cut to the consumer. They make money with higher rates and are loving this move up.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Well said franko. I laughed out loud.

He’s like a kid in a car seat with a steering wheel who thinks he’s driving.

history
Guest
history

Dave, reco any 5 cent stocks you think will run to 0.85? stop out at 0.70, dont want to be greedy

Rain360
Member
Rain360

Bang on.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Poloz can cut rates, and we can offset those rate cuts with further mortgage tightening, as Morneau has done already. Rate cuts are no longer necessarily bullish for real estate.

Rain360
Member
Rain360

How are those Morneau rules working out for lucky Toronto home buyers?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

B.C. mulls rebate of foreign buyer tax
http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/b-c–mulls-rebate-of-foreign-buyer-tax-220694.aspx

>>> so, correct me if I am wrong…we are now talking about refunds for buyers who had work permits AND those that obtained Cdn citizenship or PR status “shortly after” buying a home? what a deal! get a discount, 15% cash back and an automatic bump in equity…

Dave
Member

I’m starting to buy into the Patriotz theory that our politicians are willfully propping up the real estate bubble on the advice of their financiers. The minute CMHC increased premiums for high ratio loans, the Province came out with help for first time home buyers, more or less nullifying what the Feds did. You have to wonder what kind of coordination went on behind the scenes there.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Better late than never! Welcome to the real world.

Politicians love to give housing equity to their constituents. They don’t care about the costs they impose on others.

Dave
Member
I’m just dipping my toes in the water. I think the Premier has been getting a lot of pushback from the real estate industry with the foreign tax, so she’s throwing them a bone here and there to signal that they’re listening. That doesn’t detract from my belief that our local leaders and bureaucrats think prices are high because they have built such a liveable city. I have seen that opinion too many times behind closed doors to think otherwise. They don’t see high prices as a problem. They see it as a sign of success. It’s crazy but that’s the truth. It’s only just sinking in to the collective consciousness that we have a housing crisis. Less than a year ago, the attitude I described was still being sung by those on high. I think the next step in… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

“The people at the City of Vancouver still don’t get it. Trust me on this.”

Perhaps. But many of those who benefit from high prices get it very well. That is why they keep voting for the BC Libs. Money talks!

patriotz
Member

“The people at the City of Vancouver still don’t get it.”

Irrelevant, because any city has little power over prices one way or another.

On the other hand, each of the Provincial and Federal governments has to power to influence prices upward or crater them downward, and they are very much aware of it.

MarKoz
Member

I agree Patz, but the thing is that what the city fathers say influences public opinion too.

patriotz
Member

So what are they saying? Got some quotes?

Rain360
Member
Rain360

Not the ones with more than one kid under 18.

Rain360
Member
Rain360

Some bureaucrats get it if you ask them, “how are my three kids every going to be able to afford to live here?”. Of course, some just reply with the industry spoon-fed mantra of “density”.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Christy is very pleased with her Jobs Plan with was an education plan to get foreign students in. They targeted students from”all over the world” but the data showed 70%+ from Asia. And her choice of media were all Chinese. And only Chinese. They know what they’re doing.

history
Guest
history

govt is negotiating loopholes, it’s a give and take. Goo wants money borrowers to score some wins, establish a track record, escape velocity for cities built to the sky’s… and populated by broker, middlemen, and the leisure classes

YLTNboomerang
Member

It’s an expensive vote purchase, those folks that “recently” got their citizenship also “recently” got the right to vote for Krusty…

Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme
Dave
Member

As to the 12 WTF charts from the Huffington Post link. The author isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. LOL.

The first graph shows record levels of construction as a percent of population. Later on, the author says that there is record low construction and confuses unsold units as being constructed units. We have record low new inventory because we’re mostly building condos and the business model is now pre-sales. They go on to speculate that developers are conspiring to keep prices high by limiting inventory. LOL.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

News from a different planet;

“Metro residential prices rise, affordability declines as demand outstrips supply”, Business In Vancouver

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/1/metro-residential-prices-rise-affordability-declin/

““Mice nuts!” called Eric Carlson (Anthem Properties Group president ) … the long-term impact of the (15% property transfer tax ) tax is small … potatoes. The market is already absorbing its impact and moving toward new pricing heights in the months to come, Carlson feels, as demand stays strong.”

Dave
Member

I discussed this last week, but that opinion is shared by most in the industry.

That said, developers are always bullish. The business model filters out cautious people. A project takes years from start to finish and is negative cash flow for 99% of that time. You don’t see your profit until the very end.

So, if we were to expect a market correction, the developers are probably the last people who are going to be making that prediction.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Makes sense. They didn’t see the last one coming, hence all the “condo mob” firesales.

MarKoz
Member

Christy wants it to be “mice nuts”. That’s how she planned it.

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Such a liar.

The Man
Guest
The Man

Hmm. Well, let’s revisit Mr. Mice-Nuts’ prediction in about a year and see if he was correct.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Federal watchdog is investigating complaints banks are signing customers up for credit cards without proper consent
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/federal-watchdog-is-investigating-complaints-banks-are-signing-customers-up-for-credit-cards-without-proper-consent

>>> no, not directly related to housing, however, it should be clear that salespeople employed by numerous financial institutions are encouraged to partake in such activity as it applies not only to credit cards but also loans, HELOCs and mortgages in order to meet their quota and prevent the untapped business from going elsewhere. I know for a fact that one of the banks I deal with pretty much automatically signs you up (unless you opt out) for whatever other products one would qualify for under lending guidelines even if you were not intending to take on that much debt in the first place. typical lazy consumers are sitting ducks imho…

Sebastien
Guest
Sebastien

Hi everyone,

2165 Rupert Street, Vancouver
Nov 18:$1,888,000
Feb 2: $1,288,000
Change: – 600000.00 -32%

Found worst?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

assessed value is $1,309,700. so that sales suggests that prices have gone down very little since July 1st assessment date. July 1st was very near the peak of the housing market.

Just me
Guest
Just me
Prices will keep going down if the Provincial government stops interfering. If re-instate the ability to buy for all foreigners vua labor permits (eg, extend it to students and homemakers buying multimillion abodes) then prices might revert direction again. The only thing that would save us in that case is the curbing of chinese outflows by Xi Jinping. You have to admit we live in really peculiar times: one cannot trust the Canadian goverment anymore and has to put faith in a totalitarian regime. Money corrupts, and Vancouver has been corrupted to the core. People and homeowners accept dirty money and shady dealings. Christy Clark condones miney laundering. Agencies like Fintrac and CRA do not interfere in fear of being labeled as racist and being seen as targeting a group (chinese millionaires). Apart from a few honest journalist and local… Read more »
franko
Member
franko

Might be wise to ease up a bit, “just me”. Knocking yourself out over Christy for the next three and a half month could do more injury to yourself than to her.
While I’m pissed off about the recent exemptions of the foreign buyers tax, I have welcomed the implementation of the tax, along with RCA’s commitment to go after foreign tax evaders, our empty house tax, and the new mortgage insurance requirements. But they are NOTHING compared to China’s ban on exporting of their currency.
If it hasn’t sunk in yet, HAM is dead, and our market is in freefall.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

regarding china’s supposed ban…i think to a degree it is a classic example of do as i say, not as i do with much of the cash flowing across the border belonging to friends, family and associates of corrupt politicians. the witch hunt or operation skynet and what not being conducted by present administration equates to nothing more than the same gangster crap that has been going on in russia

Just me
Guest
Just me

I will accept that this correction is for real when I see people listing en masse for reasonable prices. Until then, I hold my judgement about the market. Politicians have shown that they can and will try to support prices.

As for Christy, I am quite curious what she will come up with. I wish I did not have to discuss her, but every time I forget about her she comes up with some nasty surprise!

The next one? I am waiting to see who will qualify as a “worker” in the regulations about the FBT. I am expecting some dirty tricks from the BC Libs.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Too late. Students included.

Inventory will stay low.

Watch.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

And a legitimate foreign worker here doesn’t make enough to buy a townhome.

Think!

This is all about the students. Rich students.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Can you really imagine the NDP not allowing foreign investment? Really? Where will they get their money from once they’ve raided the Crown Corporations? Over their term, they will be the same as the Libs.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

>Prices will keep going down if the Provincial government stops interfering.

if i want to see inside a fantasy world i’ll watch game of throwns.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Is that a ripped off Chinese version of Game of Thrones?

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

It’s the #2 rated TV show in china, right after Braking Bad.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

It’s human nature and human history. How does anyone say no to big money? What else does the province have to float its projects except for resources and real estate. They even commodify classroom seats. Maybe to help themselves go to sleep at night, our leaders dream of the day when China collapses and the breadwinners must come to live permenantly and declare their net worth. A day when CRA can finally have at them.

DaMann
Member
DaMann

Was that a sale or just a price reduction?

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

Price reduction. 2165 Rupert is still listed.

vangrl
Member
vangrl

Higher price included a new house. Now just selling land with a crappy house

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

No way. The peak was last February-March.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

potato potahto tomato tomahto

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

It’s not a sale. That is the list price. It last sold in July 2015 for $935k.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

How did you guys all get on MLSX? I want in

ostritch
Member
ostritch

That’s what I’m seeing in the agent’s sold lists that I get. It’s +/- 5% for central Vancouver. And really crappy stuff is getting good prices because there is no inventory.

I am waiting for well-located WestSide SFH to dip below 2M, where it was last year, and so far nothing.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

The worst drop from assessed that I’ve seen was the one No Money posted yesterday:

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/233-e-26th-avenue

Assessed $1.45M
Listed $999k (31% below assessed).

Needs work, but the lot is assessed at $1.4M.

I don’t think I’ve seen list of 31% below assessment so close to Main so far.

Also, this puts us very close to Patriotz statement that he’d like to see West side under $1M, we’re only about 5-6 blocks away. Unfortunately it’s a fairly narrow lot with no rear alley, and by the time you rebuild you’re still looking at say $1.4M total (assuming 2000sq ft build, not sure if the FSR and zoning allows for such a large unit on that lot).

At this point, if a lot like that can drop to $500k then I’d consider things going pretty well.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down

I’m tracking that one.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Aren’t these outliers just hilighting deficiencies in the way assessments are calculated (as in nobody visits the property)?

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

I don’t think so? About a block away, this house sold for $1.76M in May of 2016 and both are equally dilapidated:

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMjZLRA==

Both have no rear alley, the same building value, but the latter is larger. Using per the lot per sq ft of that sale, 233 E 26th could have sold last year for $1.39M.

So there’s a clear 40% drop right there from an equivalent property not 1 minute’s walk from this one.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

This is sort of my point. You use price per foot and hey presto end up at assessed value. Perhaps there are other factors in play that only come to light when you visit the property or talk to the agent.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Yes that makes sense, for all we know there’s a whole bunch of huge rocks under ground making redevelopment expensive. Whatever the case may be, the two properties I am comparing are so close together that many things affecting the value of one is likely to affect the other: street noise, crime, bad soil, contamination of some sort, bad air, unruly neighbours, pollution, risks from natural disaster and fire, loss of services, sewage, civic utilities, etc.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Is the agent Paul Eviston? He always does that. Drives in the bids.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Too bad you can put one of them pre-fab Lindell houses on it. They’ve got some nice ones. That would do me.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Enjoying our celebrity abroad? Easier for outsiders to comment freely and without fear of reprehension.

http://ochousingnews.com/will-chinese-investors-shun-vancouver-real-estate-market/

Boombust
Guest
Boombust

Ooooh! We’ve been noticed!

history
Guest
history

snowing like the dickens mid Van Isle today. Free spending geeaers not able to get around, what a drag.. and if one of ’em falls and cracks their skull, news gets around. Falls are how people die in this country…

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

China’s new capital controls are just one factor influencing Vancouver housing prices
http://www.straight.com/news/864656/chinas-new-capital-controls-are-just-one-factor-influencing-vancouver-housing-prices

>>> who want’s to bet that Poloz will not turn on the printing presses?

history
Guest
history

i will, $50 he wont, but lets set the metrics first.
kratz61@gmx.com

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

False Creek residents wary of viaduct-free park design
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/false-creek-residents-wary-of-viaduct-free-park-design-1.3965326

>>> this will not be the last waterfront development, marketing depts only want you to believe that…

Rain360
Member
Rain360

Good point. I can’t count how many last Yaletown condos went up over the past decade.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Illegal dumping of construction waste costing Lower Mainland taxpayers
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/illegal-dumping-of-construction-waste-costing-residents-in-lower-mainland/article33895254/

>>> mercury laced blueberries to go along with your dioxin contaminated seafood…what’s not to like?

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Make Vancouver China Again!

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Of course illegal dumping of anything was never a problem until those pesky foreigners arrived.

Brian Ripley
Guest

On my Vancouver Housing Chart I show that total residential sales are at a new seasonal low since 1Q 2013
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html
The continued sales drop is lining up with price resistance and reported large price reductions and listings priced below the July 2016 BC Assessments. The small bounce in total active inventory is a plus for those on the sidelines, but we are a long way off from buyers having more choice in the market.

I think we need a big move down in the equity markets before fear sets in on the vendor’s side of the real estate equation.

goofus ottawais
Guest
goofus ottawais

equity markets have nothing to do with RE

different investor class

years ago the equity markets drained the capital of the retail stock pickers

i write on this forum as a hobby.

Lurker
Guest
Lurker

You charts give me fucking cancer.

Stop cramming then full of every fucking thing you can find. They look like amateur hour. Seriously, I’ll offer to proof read them for you because you have interesting data, you presentation is just at the level of a piss-soaked hobo. No one’s going to listen to him talk about houses and no one is going to give those charts the time of day.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Thank you, Brian.

No Money Down
Member
No Money Down
paulb
Member

New
129
Price Change
23
Sold
145

TI:7740

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Just me
Guest
Just me

Wow.

This is why I am still very worried. This market is incredible, people are back in force buying.

specuskeptic
Member

N = 1. It would be inadvisable to extrapolate based on one day’s worth of data…

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

You are gonna be proven so wrong over the next 60 days.

specuskeptic
Member

Conjecture there ChinaOne. The subtext of what I’m saying is avoid conjecture. I’m not proposing any theory at this point because of not enough data.

So… wrong about what? … never mind… don’t engage… just back away…. don’t make eye contact….

Just me
Guest
Just me

You are tight. But this is not the first day of fairly robust sales.
Maybe people are getting discounts on asking price? If not, this is back to insanity 101.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

Your autocorrect is filthy.

Get a bucket of soapy water and drop your device in it.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Feb 1st and we are BELOW 8K inventory. Have you ever seen that before? I can’t say I have.

Close your eyes and imagine a group of people who are scared of their government who have bought homes on safer shores. Under what circumstances would they all list?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Foreign tax lifted. Or about to be.

Billions of $$$ leaving China.

100,000’s of local PR here who came here via IIP programs etc.

Population increasing.

What do you expect?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You just pull those numbers out of your ass again?

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Are you that dumb? So you don’t think there are a few hundred thousand PR here?

naive

Shut It Down Alreadyhr
Guest
Shut It Down Alreadyhr

Via the IIP? That’s what you said after all.

And you have a link, of course. Oh no – you’re full of shit once again.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Do you have stats to prove otherwise asshole?

specuskeptic
Member

Aliens from Mars are holding up real estate. Do you have stats to prove otherwise asshole?

Shut It Down Alreadyhr
Guest
Shut It Down Alreadyhr

Yes, but you won’t accept any source put in front of you. Especially statscan.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

I’m truly not concerned this time. This is some pent up demand for those waiting for the crusty scheme to open up…it’s mostly bottom end with some move up buyers. It will burn itself out over the next couple months. Way too many reserves at the high end which will in time clobber the market from the top down.
Keep in mind China capital outflow crackdown. Ya ya, I know Oracle, invoice over billing, we get it..

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

…and legitimate work permit holders will have only a very slight impact on prices
…no way they’ll hold up the Avalanche from up top, no chance. They are just an extension of the local work force in terms of what they can afford.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Who told you that Christy and her band are going to give the right to buy only to people with legitimate work?
They mentioned “job permits”, and that is a very large category. Millionaire students at UBC can work legslly.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

If that happens, sales like that will make headlines, and she could be forced to react and close those types of loopholes. We’ll see

Just me
Guest
Just me

Do you think she will care after she gets re-elected for 4 more years? She us gambling, and if we don’t stop her, she might win.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

9 west side house sales posted today. 2 were even from November, a side by side land assembly.

The rest from about a week ago.

Happy CNY!

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

http://www.yattermatters.com/2017/02/not-an-alternative-fact-vancouver-real-estate-market-is-down/

“You can’t massage these numbers to make you feel good. Unlike Kellyanne Conway’s spin of “alternative fact”, Vancouver real estate average prices are down. In fact, January 2017’s sales were 10.3% below the 10 year average.”

The market continues to deteriorate. Townhouses and Condos were still hot late last year, but Townhouses have since been turning down. Sales down 32 percent and Inventory up 32 percent. Two down, one to go.

Year over year detached sales numbers are likely going to remain down by large amounts, at least over 50 percent for the next 3 months. We hit record or near record sales levels several months in a row last year.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Love the way he confuses sales with prices in the previous sentence to a smug comment regarding “alternative facts”.

patriotz
Member

Poorly written, but it is a fact that average prices are down and it is a fact that sales are down. So he’s not deceiving anyone, unlike someone who talks about a non-existent “massacre” south of the border.

Shut It Down Alreadyhr
Guest
Shut It Down Alreadyhr

You definitely work in politics if you think that language isn’t deceptive.

Abdul Lahazi
Guest
Abdul Lahazi

Larry is only semi-literate.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Apparent is the theme, that you are so right, exclamation is the feeling that upped your vote.

Best place on meth
Member
Best place on meth

He’s also old and confused.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Larry was very angry when Christy announced the FB tax. Like she poisoned the well for realtors or something. But he’s never bought into HAM ever so why, according to his logic, would the tax kill the market?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Larry is full of it. He lies in a fluorishing style.
Who can blame him, it is his livelihood we are talking about. And a pretty good livelihood too, given his skills.

patriotz
Member

“But he’s never bought into HAM ever so why, according to his logic, would the tax kill the market?”

Maybe because he believes that local buyers have bought into it, and have used this as a rationalization to buy. I do.

Just me
Guest
Just me

You have been saying that HAM is only a trigger for locals to buy ever more.
Facts have shiwn you have been wring fir 10 years. If you lived in Vancouver it would take you one week to realize that HAM is real. And in some areas it is most of the game, at keast fir the kast couple of years (west side, arbutus kerrisdale, richmond). Now it is taking some time off and prices are tanking.

Just accept you were wrong about this one.

patriotz
Member

I have been saying for years that offshore buyers are significant in the West Side, Richmond and West Van.

What I don’t agree with is the idea that these buyers are forcing local 20 somethings to buy $500K condos.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Perhaps write your comments more clearly. Innuendos about locals being deceived sound like the HAM presence is a fable.
However most honest observers now recognize that HAM is real, dangerous and likely to grow if our politicians let it.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

No. That has not been your opinion over the vast majority of years. Let us hear you say you were wrong.

Westside watcher
Guest
Westside watcher
From Stuart Bonner’s monthly email on Westside detached: While December & January are typically the slowest months for Real Estate in Vancouver, this year January was even slower than December. There were 37 detached home sales on the Westside in January, 73% less than January 2016, and 60% less than the 10 year average. Of last month’s sales, 4 received over the asking price and 30 sold below the asking price. The median sale price was $2.82M (down 24% from the high in June 2016) and the average was $3.408M (down 21% from the high in July 2016). The highest sales price for a Westside detached home in January on the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s MLS® System, was $8.62M in Shaughnessey. The lowest sales price was $1.838M in Dunbar. 309 new detached listings came onto the market, 5%… Read more »
bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

cant believe it, there are only 70 condos for sales in the entire east van for under $500k. most of them start from $350k. yeah, we need to find more affordable housing soon! let pull out the fundamental calculation!

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

Yeah, Mount Pleasant is the new Kits!

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

My calculator shows that you fundamentally have low self-esteem.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

does your calculator also show you on which day rent is due!

history
Guest
history

plenty of alternative housing, only idiots buy the sheit you look at.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

yeah, it’s the “sheit” the posters here are drooled for! come on, admit it!

myraandrews
Member
myraandrews

How much do you think the snowfall has had an impact? For most of December and half of January we were living in a ‘deep freeze’. Who wants to go looking at houses? There was so much ice around it was nerve-wracking walking too and from the car.

history
Guest
history

careful about falls, they are a killer.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

Some words of encouragement to flippers, speculators and the rest of RE scumbags.

http://www.straight.com/news/864656/chinas-new-capital-controls-are-just-one-factor-influencing-vancouver-housing-prices

would-be buyer
Guest
would-be buyer

If VA plummeting sales is due primarily to China capital controls, you would expect the TO market to plummet as well, but it’s not. The TO market is on fire. So, is this correction due mainly to the 15% FBT?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Wrong logic. Toronto never got even close to the capital inflows it is getting right niw. The tax certainly opened up Toronto as an alternative. Starting from a lower baseline, this can give significant price growth. Even if chinese outflows, in aggregate, are much lower.

So yes, the tax certainly helped that way. That is why Christy is killing it!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Bear logic. The Chinese are now in Seattle and Victoria. If Capital controls are effective they will be effective across the board.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Capital controls can only constrain, but not eliminate, money outflows from China.
Chinese residents are renowned for finding ways to get around the rules.
Of course flows are still ongoing, albeit at a reduced pace. Yet, that reduction in pace is being felt in Vancouver’s high end market.
The tax added some uncertainty to the mix and pushed some Chinese buyers to explore alternatives.

The big question is: is the tax going to be effectively eliminated by the changes the BC Libs promised last Sunday?
It all depends how they will define the notion or work-permit holder.

history
Guest
history

Ontarie arie, ario

Canada is a cold country. abstain from bacon at your peril

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

Completely ….. on the sentiment of the 15% FBT. When sellers and buyers think (sentiment) that there is always going to be buyers (re:foreigners) buying homes at whatever price then sellers become emboldened and buyers fearful.

This pushes the fear of missing out or getting in to ridiculous levels creating unstable markets. … Vancouver.

When that sentiment disappears (with the FBT), then the sellers become fearful and the buyers become cautious. … Vancouver. Capital controls in China simply exacerbate the fear and cautiousness.

Toronto is simply experiencing Vancouver’s flu right now. Perhaps a FBT there will drive sentiment in a different direction there, as well.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Yes.

Just me
Guest
Just me
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/business/20170203/chinese-money-could-flow-away-from-us-experts-fear In downtown Los Angeles, the cranes are signs of a boom in Chinese real estate investment that’s poised to reshape the city’s skyline and market thousands of high-rise condos to wealthy buyers in Beijing and Shanghai. Chinese investors poured a record $16.4 billion into California last year, more than any other state and nearly double the amount invested during the previous 10 years, according to the Rhodium Group, which tracks Chinese foreign investment. Chinese money could flow away from U.S., experts fear Metropolis, 889 Francisco St. Los Angeles, CA 1/29/2017. Photo by John McCoy/Los Angeles Daily News (SCNG) Oceanwide Plaza, Flower and 11th streets. Los Angeles, CA 1/29/2017. Photo by John McCoy/Los Angeles Daily News (SCNG) Oceanwide Plaza, Flower and 11th streets. Los Angeles, CA 1/29/2017. Photo by John McCoy/Los Angeles Daily News (SCNG) In downtown Los Angeles, the… Read more »
Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

It is tough. Some major global fuckup would be required for Vancouver to get relieved of that “investor” crap.

CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName
Member
CanNeverThinkOfAGoodName

Careful what you wish for.

Not all global fuck-ups are equal. We should discriminate among potential global fuck-ups as only some are wish-worthy. None that bunion and turnip envision are wish-worthy.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Would love to see the bulls spin this?

The westside median sale price was $2.82M (down 24% from the high in June 2016) and the average was $3.408M (down 21% from the high in July 2016)

First up on the phone lines, from Surrey: Oracle.

“Oracle please go ahead”

“Well Jim I think that number is pure BS. Did you know there are 13 million students waiting to come to BC and 97% of them want to buy a detached house”

Just me
Guest
Just me

As in the oast, this may be a lull in the market. I suggest caution.
Trust me, I would be the happiest guy in the world if prices crashed an extra 50% and local residents got back their city. But what we have seen so far only brings prices back to early 2015 levels.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

Not in the Valley. Up 33%.

oncebittwiceshy
Guest
oncebittwiceshy

Well, my friend, the trend hasn’t changed since September. Surrey has 53 price changes so far in February and 41 of those are down.

http://myrealtycheck.ca/

Average Change: -2.62% Up:12 Down:41
Overall $ Change: -2206785.00 Average Change Amount:-41637.45

ostritch
Member
ostritch

SFHs on the decline since the Chinese bid up the market. They left March 2016. FB tax July 2016. But before that SFHs were going up exponentiallly and breaking all records, so much so that they caused the gov’t to act. So from that fast pace, and the underreporting of the slowdown from March onwards, you get an appearance of a collapse in general. Add to that low transaction levels plus you are comparing January with June, which is like comparing ice to fire, and you’ve got your numbers. They don’t describe the overall market. Wake everyone up when capitulation comes to the SFH market.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Price adjustment lags quantity (adjustment) by a few months. Chinese stopped bidding up SFH in March last year. Prices did not start to invert direction until July.
What is so strange?
If we can keep millionaire migrants out of the market for a few more months, we might start seeing more significant price declines. Wheter it is through tax or thanks to the Chinese dictator.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

I agree. Things to watch: Crusty has propped up the bottom, Trump wants a dovish Fed for his Big Infrastructure Spending, Poloz wont follow the Fed if they tighten. CDN could decline again. And there’s a chance of Ham getting around regs or China reversing course in a few months. It sucks but the market is like a vampire. It awakes from the dead.

Shut It Down Alreadyhr
Guest
Shut It Down Alreadyhr

Low volumes at the high-end. Doesnt really matter what the reason is once the media and general public catch on, though.

Oracle
Guest
Oracle

I hope I’m wrong. Will know in a few months. I’d love for prices to crash. But …

history
Guest
history

immigration is losing its merit all over the world. People moving willy nilly. Now they become saviours of the non working debt classes, of which you are the standard bearer. Produce something local, or fck off and die

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