BC, debt, politics, prices, supply

Free money popular with first time buyers

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199 Comments

The new BC first time buyer program is proving to be popular with over 1000 applicants who will hopefully vote for the current government in the next election.

“The B.C. Liberal government has received more than 1,000 applications from first-time home buyers who have been lured by new incentives under a program designed to improve housing affordability.”

“Critics, however, say the program is adding fuel to an already heated market for condos, notably in the Vancouver region.”

““Ottawa has been saying let’s have fewer highly leveraged buyers, but the province is saying we have to help the risky, leveraged first-time buyers get into the market,” Prof. Davidoff said in an interview Sunday. “The province has sweetened the pot.””

Read the full article in the Globe and Mail.

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[…] Southseacompany pointed out this article at global news: according to zolo, Vancouver home prices have lost almost half of their down payment value in one year. […]

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southseacompany

“Is Toronto’s housing market on the cusp of a late-80s style bubble?”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/home-prices-real-estate-market-bubble-crash-1.4043803

“The rapid rise in the price of the average Toronto-area house — up 27 per cent from last year — is evoking memories of the way prices skyrocketed three decades ago. During the late 1980s, the average GTA house price more than doubled in just three years.”

“After 1989, prices dropped for seven straight years and didn’t reach that level again until 2002.”

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Newcomer

Yeah, but at least they aren’t throwing their money away on rent.

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southseacompany

“Vancouver homebuyers lost almost 50 per cent on their down payments in 1 year: graphic”, Global News

http://globalnews.ca/news/3338634/vancouver-down-payments-infographic/

“Once considered Canada’s hottest locale for real estate, home values in the West Coast city took a beating over the course of a year, with the average home price dropping from over $1.1 million in February 2016 to $995,583 a year later.”

“Zoocasa calculated the loss (or gain) of return by taking the year-over-year change in average home prices and then dividing it by the down payment buyers would have had to make in February 2016.”

“By this measure, Vancouverites lost 49 per cent of the return on their down payments.”

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Whistler or Bust?

But is the market really down at all? I would love it if it was but do we have enough data to say so?

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Dave

Averages are more or less meaningless. We know the mix of units has changed substantially with more condos and townhomes being sold and less high priced single family homes. It doesn’t follow that prices have dropped.

Some people have no business writing articles.

I think median and HPI are the best for tracking our market.

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Shut It Down Already

Zolo maintain stats per property type broken down by number of bedrooms. Just about everything is down except 1 bed condos.

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Dave

I’m not arguing prices haven’t dropped. I believe they have. I’m arguing that averages are more or less meaningless which was the premise of that article.

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Shut It Down Already

Averages are almost always useless. I thought we’d settled that years ago.

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Bear Vancouverite

You literally said “It doesn’t follow that prices have dropped.” which implies you do’t think they dropped.

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Abdul Lahazi

Thailand’s ex-tourism chief gets 50 years for taking bribes:
http://www.250news.com/canadian-press/?loc=3&id=25e27f5e-e35f-41fb-8a70-eba1f1660338
Some serious jail time; 50 years behind bars for accepting $1.8 million in bribes . Now that’s how to deal with criminals.

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Combat roach

Bloody Norwegians, again and again…

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Combat roach

Wrong post, sorry.

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Newcomer

Is it possible that you have a slight bias and maybe even a tendency to blame Norwegians before looking at the facts?

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Combat roach

Not really, please check the previous post about the Yukon hotel and surrounding shitshow.

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fomostyle

At what point do people recognize how fucked this all is?

http://yukon-news.com/news/yukon-hotel-sued-over-alleged-multi-million-dollar-immigration-scam/

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Combat roach

Bloody Norwegians, again and again…

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Shut It Down Already

ConfirmationBias Roach

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Polozi Scheme

If the Liberals win this next election (20 years ongoing) it will no doubt be time for me and my wife and 3 kids to move far away from Vancouver and perhaps out of BC entirely.

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Sebastien

Where would you go? Alberta? Newfoundland?

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southseacompany

“ViewPoint | Canada’s most deranged housing market” CBC The National

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QqtRv6gYZM

“CBC Columnist Robyn Urback says governments need to do something about Toronto’s alarming housing market, which is following in the footsteps of Vancouver.”

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Just me

No coverage of the NDP housing policy on local media/ newspapers. So far.

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Best place on meth

Blow off top in locusts coming?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-26/rich-chinese-race-to-fund-kushner-tower-other-high-end-projects

Smurfs are going to be the fastest growing occupation in the evil empire.

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Vancouver Review

Mar 28, 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News
https://youtu.be/bGBcGJ7GesI

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Best place on meth

“”If the technology is transferred, China would be able to domestically produce advanced military laser technology to Western standards sooner than would otherwise be the case, which diminishes Canadian and allied military advantages,” a national-security report by the Department of National Defence and CSIS said in 2015.”

Good god, what a moron and traitor this piece of shit of a PM is.

Save us, Donald!

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Doomcouver

At least cozying up to China might get us an extradition treaty. I’m looking forward to corrupt chinese officials getting sent back and their multiple Vancouver houses going to the auction block.

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Whistler or Bust?

A vote for the NDP is a vote for:

A tax increase of 2%
$10 day care – Who’s gonna pay? I have kids and people with kids should pay their own bills and not ask others to.
No Uber because we pander to taxi unions
Letting the unions back in charge
The 1990’s all over again – bingo gate, fast ferries, etc.

No WAY am I voting for the NDP! Christy might be tough to take but as many have pointed out she’s the best of the worst.

Besides, you may not have noticed but BC is booming.

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Just me

House prices are booming. Families are struggling.
And you don’t oay the 2% tax if you file taxes in Canada.
But play dumb and vite Christy, you are a lost cause any way.

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Whistler or Bust?

The 2% tax will be an increase to the marginal rate dumbass. The max rate in BC will go from 47.7% to 49.7%. This tax will take money directly out of my pocket and I think sharing 47.7% + what I pay on GST/HST/Carbon Tax, etc is more than my fair share. When the Libs took power they reduced our income tax by 25% on the first day from 54% to 43%. We have been a HAVE not a HAVE NOT Province ever since. Not everyone who thinks our real estate market is out of control is a poor renter. Many of us are “rich” by Justin and the NDP standards ands views as cows to be milked. Sadly, there are a lot of bitter low paid people here who want someone else to give them free stuff and a… Read more »

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Just me

If it makes you happy, I also pay the highest marginal rate. And I think that a reduction of 25% in house prices would compensate me many times over for the extra tax charges.

Having high income in Vancouver is useless, as it stands. Taxes or no taxes, I have neighbors with no jobs who own multimillion dollars homes in Point Grey. Single mothers driving BMW SUVs.. And I am “rich”? What a joke. The only change that would make me whole at this point is a large drop in prices. If the cost of that is a few thousand dollars per year in extra yearly taxes, so be it. At this point taxes are peanuts.

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YVR

If it makes you happy, I also pay the highest marginal rate.

On the internet you can be whomever you want.

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Just me

As i said, I would be quite happy to pay an extra few thousands per year. It would be peanuts compared to thr mortgage costs at current or,higher prices. I did my math. And I guarantee that even if the marginal rate went up by 4%!under the NDP, if housing costs tank.
After 4 years, I might vote liberal again. It is not a religion, it is just an election.
If you don’t believe me, who cares?

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YVR

The 2% tax will be an increase to the marginal rate

Tax increases will be a whole lot more than 2% on income taxes. Look at the NDP carbon tax in detail. Not only will they raise it but they will eliminate it offsetting income taxes as is currently legislated. Plus there will be many more taxes they will dream up. Count on about 10% of your income in additional tax.

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Shut It Down Already

Do you think it’s a good thing for the overall economy that somebody who is able and willing to work has to stay home because they cannot afford daycare? Reducing it to people paying their on way is a massive over-simplification. You might as well start billing parents for elementary school and their additional healthcare burden if that were the case.

And don’t even get me started on Uber.

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Just me

People like YVR and WoB would probably be OK with abolishing public subsidies to education, healthcare and old age. Everyone must pay their way, right? Except the homeowners, who got massive subsidies from Krusty and they are even free not to pay taxes on their multimillion dollar assets.

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YVR

People like YVR and WoB would probably be OK with abolishing public subsidies to education

If our public education produced a simpleton like you then yes it should be abolished.

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Whistler or Bust?

You don’t like Uber? You would prefer broken down cabs with drivers that ask you for directions to where you are going? Cabs that stink with drivers that don’t speak English? Cabs that are impossible to find on any weekend or during an event? Cabs that charge the highest prices in the world and would be off the road in Europe?

Yes Uber is a terrible thing.

Terrible if you are a union member and you think you can stop progress. Its so sad it comical. Its like the payphone operators suing the cell phone companies for loss of business.

Even a vote for the NDP won’t stop Uber. 80% of BC’cers want it.

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Newcomer

I must admit that I basically never take cabs in Vancouver, except to go to the airport (I have a car and a bicycle and I don’t drink alcohol). I don’t think we are well served by having amateurs supplementing their crappy incomes by driving other people around.

And you are wrong on the numbers.

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2016/02/12/38-percent-want-uber-in-british-columbia.html

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Best place on meth

38% for, 9% against.

I’m with the majority who don’t give a shit one way or the other as I have more pressing issues to be concerned about.

Besides, I prefer my own vehicle.

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YVR

I must admit that I basically never take cabs

We need affordable daycare but affordable transportation we don’t need? Cabs are hard to get, crappy service and expensive kind of like daycare. Uber solves all that plus actually gives people an option to not own a car, will prevent hundreds of drunk driver deaths, and cost tax payers nothing.

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Newcomer

Yes, of course daycare for working families comes before a cheap convenient taxi service for you when you don’t want the hassle of driving or taking transit.

The entitlement on the guy! I feel like I’m debating Mr. Burns.

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Shut It Down Already

I take cabs all the time. None are broken in any way. None “stink”. I’ve never once been asked for directions (except when presented with a choice of routes to see if I have a preference).

What’s more, Uber does not require a language test. In fact the company actively fights against any such requirement (they just lost such a case in the U.K. earlier this month, btw).

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YVR

Do you think it’s a good thing for the overall economy that somebody who is able and willing to work has to stay home because they cannot afford daycare?

Yes. It forces companies to pay a higher wage. With free daycare wages just drop because people can afford to go to work for minimum wage. What do you think all those couples with kids will do with that new income? Can you say mortgage. Housing prices go higher and the will be working for nothing, leaving their kids with strangers and we all pay for the daycare.

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Newcomer

That’s like saying government road building lowers wages because otherwise companies would have to pay their employees enough to buy all-terrain vehicles that they can drive to work over the fields.

As for the idea that they will just squander it on mortgages, I have to wonder when you became such a social engineer that you think you need to decide what people spend their wages on.

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Doomcouver

Yeah the real estate sector is booming and not much else. Christy and her cronies are just riding the wave of real estate speculation, and claiming they brought the economic prosperity. We need any party that has the balls to put some real measures in place to kill this housing bubble. Sure it will tank the economy in the short term but we need to bring housing back in line with local incomes at all costs, or risk a bubble we won’t recover from in our lifetimes.

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Newcomer

Unless we get some really kick-ass inflation going, I think we are well past the point at which recovery is multigenerational.

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bestplaceonearth

Go Liberal!

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Combat roach

Shut the fuck up, motherfucker and get lost.

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Abdul Lahazi

More BC Liberal bribery and vote buying:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-government-spending-announcements-1.4027251

There were 107 separate funding announcements that went out during the period between Feb. 14 and March 13. 84 were for funds going to Liberal ridings, compared to just seven for NDP ridings and 16 that were for funding across the province.

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paulb

New
236
Price Change
46
Sold
164

TI:8291

Thinking of buying or selling? http://www.clivestevepaul.com

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Doomcouver

From these numbers I can see a lot of sellers still waiting in the wings. The seller paradigm is still that prices only go up, so they think they can time the market to get the price they want. I have a morbid curiosity to see what inventory numbers might look like closer to the summer. Chinese capital controls are starting to bite in most markets so we may see seller realization that Chinese capital is harder to come by now. Time will tell…

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Newcomer

Based on no evidence whatsoever, I am going to guess that both listings and the weather remain cool all summer. I think people have decided to sit a whole year out. That could change if, for example, Toronto or China started to crash.

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Yikes

Cheapskate J Pattison making a measly 75 m donation to St Paul’s today, if he truly has a heart he would donate a billion to help with housing affordability, only reason for hospital funds is so he gets primo care in his old age. Old prick

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Oracle

He lobbied to get PST + GST on used cars instated. His new car dealers and used car lots made a killing after this. 100’s of millions. The Light rail terminus is going to end on his land most likely at 156/104 in Surrey. Land value probably went up by tens of millions. Skytrain wouldn’t have done that.

$75 million is cost of doing business. He is still way ahead.

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Best place on meth

Somebody has to fund health care since Krusty won’t do it.

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Doomcouver

I’m no fan of Christy Clark but why should she? BC is so overloaded with immigrants gaming the system to pay no tax and get free healthcare our healthcare system is groaning under the strain. We’d need to kick way more recent immigrants off of free healthcare before I’d support additional funding.

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history

Fess Up Time

Newcomer does what? Works where? Income?

Already does what? Works where? Income?

Traitor works for the govt and cleans toilets in the Ottawa bathouse

Space is an agent of PRoC, but dates Chinese Canadian women that launder ‘clients’ money, in houses, up and down the coast.

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Oracle

Newcomer’s parents prob own multiple homes in Vancouver and pay no taxes here. Dad probably just renounced Cdn citizenship.

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history

BC has become a Developers paradise. The shear numbers of humanity that wants to live here defies even Newtons gravity laws

So supply gets vaporized, and demand is a maiden with baited breathe, fantasizing her first rogering with History.

But History is none other than an Insurance mans mortality table. You know ho to read them? Space? Already? Newcomer, Traitorz?

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Newcomer

Were you aware that population growth and net immigration are at historic lows? BC in general, and Vancouver in particular, has rarely been as unpopular as it is now.

So, here you are, about as wrong as it is possible to be. How did this happen? I can’t be sure, but I am going to guess that you just wrote down what you were thinking, without checking to see if there was any evidence to support it. You should consider looking things up before you post.

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history

You keep spouting The Soros Line, Mr. snowflake. We still dont know what you do for a living, your career.

Ive mentioned many times i live in my vehicle, and do mainteanence repairs on junk made in asianfactories.

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Newcomer

What is “The Soros Line?”

I have actually mentioned several times that I own small businesses here and in the States. I don’t, however, see how that is relevant to what we are discussing.

Does the fact that population growth is at historic lows change your analysis of the situation?

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history

Did you miss the part on Peak Leisure travel, age 54?
dont think so.

what business? selling what? Original manufacturer, or is it like Avon, Amway or Herbalife?

Your company listed on an Exchange? provide a link

like pulling teeth, christ!

the deceiving shit this Coast attracts boggles the mind.

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Shut It Down Already

Are you some sort of stalker?

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Newcomer

It’s hard to understand what you mean. You seem to be in your own private world.

It’s B2B and unrelated to real estate, immigration or anything we ever discuss here.

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Doomcouver

Newcomer, what history is trying to say is he wants to get to know you better, in the biblical sense.

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Oracle

BS meter just exploded.

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Oracle Sockpuppet Doppelganger III

Yeah. I don’t believe anyone says… except Oracle.

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Shut It Down Already

Strong argument once again, Oracle. How about a link to some reliable source for once? It won’t kill you.

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KickThemOut

Oh my…cement, caulking, tire sealant for butt implants! How crazy do people get for vanity?? Come to a clinic near you soon? I’m sure it will be so popular here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/03/28/woman-who-enhanced-butts-with-glue-and-cement-gets-10-years-for-manslaughter/?utm_term=.c3e30e281f13

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Bear Vancouverite

I am firmly against the first time buyer program, but I think we’re reading a little too much into it. According to the article, only 270 people have entered into a contract to buy under the program. Paul’s stats show an average of 100-150 sales per day. So since introduction of the program on Jan 16th the total number of sales that took advantage of the program is less than 3% of purchases and likely much less than 3% of dollar value, yet we constantly hear posters say how this has “goosed” the system, and some of those same posters will argue that foreign buyers at 3% has no impact on the market. Some posters have argued foreign buyers at even 10% or even 12% have no impact on the market. Surely if both are at 3% they must have… Read more »

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southseacompany

You’d have to count the total applicants as a part of the total of sales below $750k to understand the impact more fully. According to Steve Saretsky; “Since the program began January 16, 432 applicants in Metro Vancouver have been approved. For context there were a total of 2106 apartment sales in Metro Vancouver in January and February combined, if those 432 applicants were successful in purchasing that would equate to 20% of the market” http://vancitycondoguide.com/bc-loan-program-adding-to-overheated-condo-market/ Steve’s compares the total applicants to sales of apartments – arriving at 20%. If we were able know the actual number of apartment sales less than $750k this % would, no doubt, be even higher. A quick look on the MLS map shows that 25% of apartments are listed above $750k. So the applicants could be easily buying 20-30% of homes under $750k. Consider,… Read more »

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Shut It Down Already

I’d say it’s unlikely that they all were successful buying given that they’re all competing against each other. Competition in that segment is fierce right now. Because, you know, it’s a good investment.

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KickThemOut

@SpacedOut / Whistler or Bust – so why are a lot of bears on this blog so bitter about life in BC and how it is screwing the young families? Seems like renting would solve all the problems?

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Newcomer

It more or less does.

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KickThemOut

So why all the bitterness about not able to own a coveted SFH? Seems like not able to own an extremely overpriced particle board box really destroy people’s standard of life here for some reason.

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Newcomer

I am in no way bitter. I think the problem you are having is that you see people only as groups. You saw a bitter bear, so you think all bears are bitter. You saw a dishonest Chinese person, so you think all Chinese people are dishonest, and so on. Generalization is a common reasoning error. You can avoid it by simply pausing and asking yourself if you know the thing you are about to say is actually true, before you say it.

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Doomcouver

I don’t think the vast majority here are bitter. They, like me, want to see housing return to normal prices based on local incomes as soon as possible. I think “extremely frustrated” is the word that best describes the mood of the Vancouver housing bear.

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Whistler or Bust?

I think that most people have not wrapped their heads around renting. They have been raised in an area where home ownership is religion and renting is for “losers”. It will take some time for these attitudes to change.

The other side is that very few people can get a 5 yr lease like I did. Until the rules change to give renters a little bit more security it will be hard to convince them. The majority of people sign a 1 yr lease and then go month to month and are living in constant fear that they get kicked out with 3 months notice. Not the best circumstances to be raising a family.

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Newcomer

When you think of all the events that can disrupt family life, such as job loss, divorce (or simply a degraded relationship), illness, emotional/mental/addiction problems in any family member, kids falling in with the wrong crowd, accidents, etc. you realize that a pretty sizable number of families will be impacted by at least one of these sort of things. And they will deal with it. And when you compare any one of these issues to moving house (not moving cities, or even school zones, just moving to a new house), you will see that it is no big deal. It’s an inconvenience to be sure, and if you can avoid it great, but it is hardly something to plan your life around. Having to move from one house to another once or twice is no way a greater burden than… Read more »

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YVR

The majority of people sign a 1 yr lease and then go month to month and are living in constant fear that they get kicked out with 3 months notice.

The only way you can get kicked out on month to month is if they sell or if direct family moves in. If you do a little research before renting there is no worry.

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Newcomer

Even if they sell, the buyer has to move in.

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Just me

From the BIV article. “Eby said that, under the NDP’s proposed Housing Affordability Fund and Speculator Fee Act, a foreign national who did not pay taxes in B.C on his or her income would be subject to a retroactive foreign-buyer tax on all B.C. home purchases, regardless of how long the properties had been owned. Eby said an NDP government would apply a 2% tax on the assessed value of all such property. The NDP would also close what Eby termed two “loopholes” in the foreign-buyer regulations: the use of trusts and other corporate vehicles to disguise home ownership and the exemption on transactions of pre-sale condo assignments. Currently, the foreign-buyer tax does not apply to any foreign national who sets up a company in B.C. as long as no more than 25% of the shares are owned offshore, said… Read more »

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Combat roach

Enough for the vote but not yet enough to exterminate the locust (laundering, stashing and speculating), hence exclude the crap completely from the equation so-called “rational housing”.

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KickThemOut

So what’s your big plan? I’ve seen a lot of repetitive talk, but no actions so far. Seems like talk is about as much efforts as you are willing to put into this crisis that is irking you so much. I would have expected more from someone as pissed off as you.

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southseacompany

“Toronto House Prices Are World’s Fastest-Growing”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/03/28/toronto-fastest-growing-house-prices_n_15662688.html

“Canada’s largest city saw the fastest pace of house price growth of any major world city in the past year, according to research from analytics firm CoreLogic, carried out for Australia’s Daily Telegraph.”

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Doomcouver

Anyone with a shred of objectivity should be able to see this is extremely unhealthy for the economy and will end badly.

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bullwhip29

Vancouver city councillor wants city signage to reflect region’s diversity
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/diverse-signage-vancouver-1.4043477

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Doomcouver

More worthless identity politics. I find it disturbing how politicians don’t bother focusing their attention on any of the various crises we have going on right now in housing, opioids, homelessness, etc. and instead care about what streets are called and whether it’s “inclusive” or not. Canada has a European culture, if you don’t like it there are plenty of other countries you can go to that are less European.

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Newcomer

May I point out that you are in the middle of focusing on worthless identity politics. They could name my street Pol Pot Rd. or ISIS Blvd and I wouldn’t care.

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