It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!
This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.
Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:
–house price correction all done?
–rate increase in canada thanks to US
–
“Lender upselling has raised the stakes for Canadians addicted to debt: Don Pittis”, CBC
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/upselling-debt-addiction-interest-rates-1.4029568
“While bank employees have been under pressure to encourage customers to borrow, Canadians have been all-too-willing dupes. Rock-bottom rates that only seemed to be going one way — lower — have created a unique situation where both lenders and borrowers have begun acting like addicts.”
“And as rates begin to rise, the process of withdrawal from that borrowing binge is likely to have painful symptoms for the entire economy.”
“Speculators super-heating the Toronto real estate market”, Globe & Mail
“Investors could be responsible for a chunk as large as 25 to 30 per cent of all sales in the GTA, according to the special report by Realosophy Realty Inc. ”
““When we began to see investors act on the assumption that the price of houses will continue to rise indefinitely, we started shifting from a market driven by an investor’s mindset to a speculator’s mindset,””
The Province letters:
http://theprovince.com/opinion/letters/letters-greens-ndp-should-unite-to-fight-the-b-c-liberals
>>> some good comments here…
Five things to watch for in the federal budget
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/five-things-to-watch-for-in-the-federal-budget-1.3334935
>>> a change to the cap gains inclusion rate might have unintended consequences…and imagine for a moment if YVR was sold to the likes of Anbang?
Many owners of top-tier Vancouver homes who were planning to sell are now sitting on the sidelines, Henderson said.
“The individuals involved have less pressure to sell the properties, so they can afford to take a wait-and-see attitude,” Henderson said. “Arguably some of those properties would be the target of foreign buyers.”
Mar 21, 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News
https://youtu.be/7hn5EBnfUio
Outer Fraser Valley seems to be cooling off already, while HAM areas have picked up ever so slightly.
Oh boy, here we go again, A bunch of priced out with wishful thinking.
New
240
Price Change
38
Sold
114
TI:8192
It matches the negative data of Zolo and myrealtycheck.ca. 3 out of 3 indicators are bearish for now.
I am rooting for you Sebastien. Give me more evidence of a significant slowdown and you will become my hero!
So far, I have not seen any real smoking gun suggesting prices will come down in a substantial way (say, 10% or more) over the next few months. I would of course love it if it happened.
The data does not indicate a crash. Having said that, the data of the last few months talk about a perma-melt. If prices go down 1% per month, after 20 months we’ll see many people underwater.
Sales jumped up in February to last Fall’s numbers, but have flattened out since. Seems like a pretty normal Spring pick up , but considering the free money for virgins, it’s pretty weak. If sales stay flat, the next leg down will be in the summer.
Agree. An NDP gov’t might haste the downturn too.
Very interesting article about NYC. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/21/china-is-beating-america-again-buying-up-pricey-brooklyn-real-estate.html The Chinese government is taking steps to further limit the flood of real estate investment leaving the country. In January, China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange further tightened restrictions on foreign currency exchange for mainland Chinese residents, making it essentially illegal to use such conversions for foreign real estate transactions. Penalties for violators are steep, from being placed on a government watchlist to losing access to foreign currency for three years. That has already led to some international projects dependent on funding from Chinese investors to go under — the investors can no longer make recurring payments during the construction process. Despite tightening restrictions and increased scrutiny on foreign investments, Dr. Kwong said many Chinese remain “desperate to get their money out,” and he thinks they will find ways to get around the rules.… Read more »
Seems like the Bears are bored and resigned to the fact that they missed the boat and will forever missed the boat. At least they got this blog and each other for comfort that they are still ahead in renting and they are so smart with their investments. Oh, and they can be 100% racists without worry cuz Chinese isn’t a race and anyone who objects is a race baiters 😉
No wonder they are so successful and happy with their life.
several names here can do a group hugs – after all, they always have one another.
Right, like you two metards?
oooh, why so touchy! another lonely soul, aint we !
Hey Space, I caught that boat in 1979 when I bought my first house for $48,000. Within a year and a half the price on that home climbed to $108,000. Being an incredibly bright “bull”, I sold and upsized to a brand new split level home. Now, mortgages were just starting to climb (11%) and my realtor thought it would be smarter to take out a one year mortgage with the builder until rates came down. Yada Yada Yada …….. I kissed the buyer of my new home because he left me with $10,000. Longer story short, I watched the market very closely and bought another brand new home for more than 50% off the price. Developers were offering cars with their new builds, such was the fear at the time. If you don’t follow the trend you end up… Read more »
At least you have your massage parlours and sock puppets to comfort you while playing out your misogynistic, perverted fantasies.
think like one, act like one!
instead of thinking about these things, why don’t you put your brain power to solve your housing crisis?
High end of the market (say, above 2 mils) is currently still dormant.
Here is why:
http://fortune.com/2017/03/21/china-outbound-investment-capital-control/
Efforts to contain outbound investment appear to be having a significant effect. Non-financial outbound investment fell 52.8% in January-February from the same period last year, with amounts in the property and entertainment sectors down over 80%.
City of Vancouver launches Historical Discrimination Against People of Chinese Descent Advisory Group
https://twitter.com/CityofVancouver/status/844273908224331776
They should start by reading VCI.
Ah, yes, more identity politics.
Used by politicians to divert energy and attention away from more fundamental issues.
City of Vancouver should worry about current problems, not some crap from 100 years ago.
It never ends with this garbage.
I remember in the 70s early 80s when Vancouver was a “nuclear free zone ” as if the USSR would not drop the bomb on us because of that. There were even street signs declaring the nuclear free status. There have always been flakes running Vancouver City Hall.
As far as I can tell, the changes to the Foreign Buyers Tax are not finalized in any bill of law or administrative directive. If anyone familiar with this process could clarify the details of the changes being implemented, it would be very helpful.
I suspect that Christy Clark and her faithful Mike DeJong might be making changes that let many more buyers in without us realizing it. This would consistent with the observations that many offshore buyers may be re-entering the market, as they realize the tax might not apply to them.
Any info about this would be much valuable. Hopefully the press will hold them accountable if they play some dirty trick.
good luck getting details right now. many i’ve talked to are simply shooting first and asking questions later with regard to buying RE. the thought of having to watch the govt whip the rug out yet again on the public and not being properly positioned in advance is incredibly unpalatable for many to say the least. i can only speculate that recent changes will end up being more sweeping than advertised to appease many who have already paid the tax (and some who are currently part of the class action suit) and the many thousands who own RE in this city. as i said, once the election is over she can drop the phony act and kill the tax. if you read between the lines, krusty and de jong have already laid the groundwork in recent commentary as they have… Read more »
VCI Admin – i would like to provide some market commentary for your next post. add it to your next post, thanks:
Ouch!:
14450 Colebrook Road, Surrey
Mar 2:$9,800,000
Mar 20: $5,388,000
Change: – 4,412,000 -45%
Please stop. Random pie in sky asking prices that are being brought down, does not market analysis make.
This is just silly these random postings.
Nonsense. They reflect what is going on in people’s minds. People have been living in a fantasy world that is even crazier than the actual ridiculous situation. Price changes are also market drivers.
On top of it all, they’re funny!
Don’t you see the pattern? 18 months ago this property would have been sold at 9.8 mil.
Why would it have sold at 3x assessed value?
Speculation. Local or foreign
The speculation is all yours, it would seem.
Assessed at $3m, includes 20 acres of land. Sounds like an outlier to me. Maybe rezoning issues?
That’s gotta hurt:
3315 E Broadway, Vancouver
Nov 22:$3,300,000
Mar 20: $2,100,000
Change: – 1,200,000 -36%
Are we in a seller’s market?
We are in a market of fools.
Only half of them….
hurt what? $3.3mil was way way over priced, now $2.1mil is also way over priced. this seller calls whatever he wants – if someone willing to pay for it. bears like making a mole hills out of nothing.
It must hurt; psychology speaking. The greedy realtor and sellers through the towel and now are resolved to sell this house at “only” 2.1 mil. They probably had tons of plans to do with the 3.3 mils.
Sebastien is following the trend, my friend. The point to be made is that in a hot market you don’t see close to 5x as many price drops as price increases. I love the “bull” comments on dropped asking prices. Two years ago it was the “bears” stating that the asking prices were wishful thinking because they were going up so fast. Vancouver is still experiencing significant price drops in prices. http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/ Average Change: -3.35% Up:52 Down:217 Overall $ Change: -29212310.00 Average Change Amount:-108595.95 Oracle made a point, late last year, that this website doesn’t establish a trend because a couple of months don’t make a trend. How about 6 months and consistent drops? Surrey: Average Change: -1.00% Up:58 Down:141 Overall $ Change: -9023022.00 Average Change Amount:-45341.82 If a frog is put in cold water which is then brought to… Read more »
You make good points, and I appreciate Sebastien’s posts.
But I should warn you that volumes are increasing steadily. If this is due to lower transaction prices, it is not clear right now.
GT officially against increases to taxes on housing. See BNN. I would too if i owned multiple properties.
Sales are trending strongly upwards. SFHs in the east side are going like hotcakes.
Do you have any numbers for this? I am not seeing movement on the places I keep an eye on. Maybe I am looking in the wrong areas.
in the last 2-4 weeks sold signs having been popping up all over richmond (on properties that have been sitting quiet since last summer)
Are you for real? Surrey taking off like crazy too.
Yep, big time. It looks like locust is back in the field with the Spring. This one went 2 weeks ago for the listed price.
Look at the graphs at the very bottom (sales):
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/mount-pleasant-vw/trends
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/mount-pleasant-ve/trends
West side is still dormant, not enough Chinese millionaires (yet).
Locals buy East side.
That’s a hot neighbourhood (4th hottest) and the sales mix is mostly condos, which are the hottest segment right now. That graph includes 95 condos, 10 TH and 6 SFH, you can see the breakdown at the top. All 6 sold like hotcakes? That may be true, but that’s way too small of a sample to say that SFH for the entire east side are selling like hotcakes. From a larger sample east side SFH are selling well, but I wouldn’t call it hot.
Clark’s Failure on Housing Affordability Big Problem for BC Liberals
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/03/21/Clark-Housing-Affordability-Failure/
“…the BC Liberal government last week exempted foreign nationals with work permits and, potentially, up to 170,000 foreign students from the Metro Vancouver 15-per-cent foreign buyers tax, letting them apply for refunds if they recently bought homes…”
It looks like Bill is channeling Oracle and hasn’t even bothered read about the exemption.
i hope i am wrong about this but the info on bc govt website is pretty vague with respect to the “foreign nationals” exemption and how it will apply to future purchases. all the focus had been on the PNP exemption when this is really only a drop in the bucket numbers wise (as you also pointed out). until things are outlined more clearly i am going to assume this paper thin press release was drafted in a misleading way on purpose and will go out on a limb to suggest the FBT has for the most part been eliminated in a round about way for those that don’t mind filling out some more paperwork and waiting for a refund. now going forward, what happens? will the same rules apply to all future purchases by PRa and citizens to be?… Read more »
But don’t we know that to be untrue? Didn’t we already conclude that it is not possible to get PR in less than two years, so the refund would not apply to purchasers who had not applied for PR at least one year prior to making the purchase?
What makes you think otherwise? Is this just a gut feeling on your part?
technically it is a year from the date the transfer is registered with land title office assuming this amount of time is even needed. i’ve heard many conflicting stories as to how long it actually takes to get PR. to extend window, buyers could fork out juicy deposit and ask for extra long closing. and how would this apply to presales? hmm…. and then of course there are all those that could obtain the various work permits (incl open ones) that would exempt themselves from FBT. would they be subject to the same guidelines? i’m not suggesting this won’t complicate things in a significant way, but i am sure some it will be worth it to many (and those clever folks that figure out how to streamline the process) to do this in order to potentially save many 100’s of… Read more »
Your thoughts are disordered here. We know which work permits are exempt and which are not. And you seem to be imagining that enough buyers to impact market prices will agree to buy a house based on the gamble that they will be granted PR in time. That’s just silly and leaves aside obvious fact that permanent residents are not foreigners but immigrants.
It’s odd, you are sometimes clear thinking, but this is worthy of Oracle.
it is not as cut and dry as you make it out to be. sure, nothing is a certainty 100% but if handled correctly, many buyers will not end up paying FBT. no, they wont be exempt upfront, but at the end of the day the cash ends up back in their pockets. if you can’t see hows this differs from possibly banning sales until proof of PR or citizenship is obtained first, then so be it.
Nobody was discussing “banning sales.” You are off in your own world on this one.
The CIC website tells you the current application waiting times. Non-express entry PNP is about 16 months, apparently. Add to that the time it takes the province to confirm your nomination.
for express entry wait time is 6 mos or less
We developers are so glad you confused.
8 weeks to get PR from PNP–>Express Entry—> PR
Now tell us how many get express entry as a %age (of an already small number) of all those accepted under PNP.
These are processing times, once you have everything ready. It takes months to get things ready. For example, you need a criminal record check from every country you have lived in. All of these countries have their own wait times. You need a medical checkup. You need this that and the other. Even working with lawyers and consultants, it takes years to get these things done.
Nobody will ever say, “Hey, that house looks like a good investment, but the 15% tax looks expensive, so I’ll get Canadian permanent residence to avoid paying it. ” That is ridiculous on its face.
You can usually do the criminal record check in parallel (because the CIC know they take time to obtain and also have an expiry date). The medical is counted in the waiting time, too.
But your conclusions are still correct. For somebody to exploit this as a loophole they’d had to have predicted both the introduction of the FBT and the recent changes to it prior to their application.
my concerns are not about past purchases by people playing jedi mind tricks but rather whether or not these exemptions to foreign nationals will apply to future purchases as well and if so, how?
I would not be surprised if Christy Clark and DeJong pulled another dirty one on all of us.
I was surprised that they exempted only the PNPs. I expect some nasty surprise from the actual implementation of the tax changes. Like, some little publicized paragraph that opens up tax-free buying for mainland Chinese university students (and their deserving parents).
I think we have not seen the end of this story, and Chrsity and DeJong are jockeying to introduce the loophole without voters realizing it.
Of course, they are just the “legal” henchmen of the local RE villains, enabling business with fellow Chinese criminals laundering and stashing dirty money. Students and PNPs are just the cute terms for mules involved in crime.
Yes. That is our goal.
Christy is fiddling on the knob of a garden hose
In the face of a roaring forest fire,
Ignited by central bankers
Dropping napalm onto the woods for years.
Change in B.C. strata law has unintended consequences
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/3/tale-two-ways-sell-condo-complex/
part 2 of 2
part 1 of 2 (from Mar 14)
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/3/new-condo-sale-rule-brings-relief-many-grief-some/
“Real estate tax” CBC News Video
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/real-estate-tax/vp-BBytiTd?ocid=mailsignout
“Jean-Francois Perrault, chief economist at Scotiabank, says it’s time to hike taxes on speculators”
Only the beginning?:
8477 10th Avenue, Burnaby
Oct 27:$1,988,000
Mar 20: $1,288,000
Change: – 700000.00 -35%
You Canucks are so naive.
The other $700K will change hands overseas. The PTT only would apply to remaining balance. And you have a year to get the 15% tax back by becoming PR.
MLS needs to have ‘sale’ price listed for all docs to check out. Saying someone got a house for $700k less than asking raises red flags.
This way, someone pays 98% of asking and business as usual.
Oh. 7K party tomoro.
Meaning the house is already sold. Try putting an offer $100K above asking. They won’t accept.
😉
How much PTT do they save for all this risk then? I thought rich foreigners could suffer enormous losses in the name of having either a safe store for their wealth or a place for their relatives to live?
And now they’re going to try and save a few thousand this way? Please.
(Original ask was $500k over assessed, btw)
we’re talking about people who but basic insurance on limited edition aston martin bond cars and get plastic surgery in delta basements.
people who have cheated the tax man again and again and gotten away with it.
have people learned nothing in a decade? boggles the mind.
These are all the same person or are you extrapolating poorly?
Bull would not put anything past them. There is nothing he believes his fantasy nemesis group incapable of. As a result, everything can be explained by referring to them. It’s a very comfortable position to be able to explain all things with one answer.
Imagine if you cherry-picked the worst news articles involving Canadians then stated that all Canadians acted this way without exception. Total insanity, yet somehow the racists think it’s logical.
Burnaby is bleeding badly.
assessed value is $1,482,000 so it was obviously listed much higher than market value.
also for a house built in 2014 it looks pretty shitty. the kitchen looks dated despite being almost new and the rest of the house looks a bit off.
Mar 20, 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News https://youtu.be/608cDmo_HsA
Mar 20, 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble Newshttps://youtu.be/608cDmo_HsA
