Friday Free-for-all! March 3rd 2017

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all! 

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

empty dwellings

balanced-ish budget 

detached report

farewell sfh

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend! 

Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“February 2017 Condo/Townhouse Market Report”, Van City Condo Guide

http://vancitycondoguide.com/february-2017-condotownhouse-market-report/

“Condos Remain Red Hot, Townhouse Inventory Scarce”

“At this rate, condo prices will continue to rise. Inventory is far too low, sellers are hesitant to sell and although buyer demand has slipped there is simply not enough listings at the moment. This is resulting in multiple offers and quick sales (Median days on market hit new low of 9 days).”

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Herd mentality. Get in at any price before it’s too late! A smart buyer would realize that shopping for a condo with inventory this low is sheer lunacy. Even if you’re happy with the high prices you could at least wait for greater options rather than having to compete with 100 other buyers for the same 12 listings.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Or maybe once all the expensive homes are bought out and permanently removed from local market, the next move for the big money is down the ladder to duplex, townhouses, and condos?

You do know that you only need 50% + 1 now to force the entire complex to be sold. Any older complex sitting on redevelopment land better watch out! Take the first offer and risk seeing your investments destroyed.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

80%, actually.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

They just started giving out free money though. This is the main factor behind the surge in the low end. It’s likely helping the chain of move up buyers as well. It will peeter out after a month or so. Sales already appear to be slowing in most cities on Zolo.

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Janet Yellen Says Fed Is Likely to Raise Interest Rates This Month”, New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html?_r=0

“Janet L. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, said Friday that the Fed was likely to raise its benchmark interest rate this month, barring any unpleasant economic surprises.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

At last, some good news.
I am eagerly waiting to see if they follow up, or if this is more empty talk.
Poloz should start reflecting about whether having a weak CAD$ is in our best national interest.

ostritch
Member
ostritch

LOL.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

I don’t know…is massive cross border shopping when the CAD was a par in the nation’s best interest?

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

discussed this a long while ago. many of the retailers north of the border are US companies anyway. i suppose it is a good thing from a jobs perspective, however, average cdns will now have to pay more for many items leaving less left over for nights out on the town. i don’t necessarily buy the staycation argument either since most vacation spots in cda are crowded, busy and overpriced now (assuming one has cash left over to begin with)

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

But the money stays in Canada and can circulate in the economy and generate more activities. Every $ spend in US is a dollar that’s gone period.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

when shopping in the US made sense, consumers could stretch dollars out much further. now we just pay more for essentials here (from the same US co’s in many cases) and have less left over for misc spending say at a restaurant or other local attraction

patriotz
Member

BoC mandate is to target CPI inflation, not exchange rate.

Just me
Guest
Just me

And you genuinely think that is what Poloz is doing? Every time he talks down the canadian dollar, after a bit of a runup?
Poloz wants a cheaper canadian dollar, as he is(mistakenly) convinced this will help exports, especially in manufacturing. Evidence (academic and non) suggests that the elasticity of maufacturing and exports to cheaper CAD dollar is very weak, and certainly swamped by other factors (like the US business cycle stage).

Poloz has bet the house on a cheaper CAD, and so far he has been wrong.

patriotz
Member

If BoC were targeting a low exchange rate rather than CPI inflation the latter would be exceeding its target. It isn’t.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Inflation would be roughly the same if CAD was at .9 USD .

It is the rate of change in prices that matters, not the level.

Poloz WANTS a weak Cad$.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Specuskeptic posted this link in the previous thread. Interesting.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/03/03/Global-Elites-Profit-Unaffordability/

“How Global Elites Profit from Unaffordability And why they make it harder to fix Vancouver’s housing crisis.”

From the article (read it all if you can):

That doesn’t mean that these elites necessarily want to live in the homes they buy. In its 2016 Wealth Report, Knight Frank surveyed 400 top investors and financial advisors — people who as a group oversee the assets of 45,000 ultra-wealthy people. “Asked what factors had been growing in importance as a reason for [their wealthy clients] to buy residential property,” it observed, “the most popular (55 per cent of respondents) was as an investment to sell in the future.” Knight Frank continued, “Investment diversification (46 per cent) and as a safe haven for funds (47 per cent) also scored highly.”

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

At least it is clear what Vancouver’s problem is and what should be done to stop the carnage and clean up the shit so Canadians can actually exist and live in their country.

“Over the past decade these elites have invested more and more of their wealth in property. But they tend to cluster in the same cosmopolitan cities. London attracts wealth from Russia and the Middle East, for instance, whereas wealth from China has flowed to Pacific Rim cities. Such places have seen property prices hit record levels. In its 2016 Wealth Report, Knight Frank pointed to Vancouver as a particularly striking example. “A lack of supply, coupled with foreign demand, spurred on by a weaker Canadian dollar explain the city’s stellar performance,” it explained.”

Just me
Guest
Just me

You are an optimist. Many people still do not accept that this is the key reason for the massive run-up of last year.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Ignore those “people”.

They have an agenda that aligns with the vermin, not with Canadians.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Do you drink in the evenings?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

No, I drink in the mornings.

Fuck off, idiot.

Can you do that?

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Sorry, no can do.

I’m just curious. Your are clearly intelligent and often rational. But, as I am sure you are aware, some of your posts are totally removed from what would be considered normal sane discourse. For example, you will admit that you could never say the things you say here in a public place. Likewise, I doubt you would say them to people whose opinion you valued, like your parents, or children, or employers, or employees. And yet you are not a troll in the ordinary sense of the word. That’s what made me wonder if you were drunk at some times and sober at others. I guess it will have to remain a mystery.

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Now I know why husbands kill their wives.

The endless, useless yapping.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Aw, honey. Don’t be like that.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

He blames China for having no friends, too.

Just me
Guest
Just me

No. Just for having no house. And he is right about that.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Oh do pipe down, racist.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Many of those foreigners working in my office have at least 1 $3M+ house in Van West / West Van and it’s not for sale. Almost all have $1M+ condo or townhouse for either investments or they don’t want to do the necessarily yard work, etc.

Combat roach
Guest
Combat roach

What are they doing in your office with such investment portfolios for fcuk sake? Are you a hedge fund executive?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

As I said earlier, they are foreign students and need work experience and company sponsorship to get citizenship. However, most of them can’t even string together a simple sentence in English, and likely cheated their way through university. As I said, most of them are so bad that they can’t get a real job elsewhere. However, that doesn’t mean their rich parents won’t buy their spoiled brat a multi-million house, or transfer money out of China to invest in Van RE that’s been so good to them.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Work permits are aplenty.
Krusty saw the opportunity!

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

I doubt people in the union membership office you likely work in own $3 million houses.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Many also have multiple investment condos. Some go to condo sales events and buy condos like weekend shopping. They are almost never rent out.

best place on earth
Guest
best place on earth

did i not warn you about your chance in buying your condo in 2015 and 2016? you people missed it.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Condos would have crashed like everything else if it was not for Christy Clark’s free money to condo buyers.
You could not possibly know about that. This market was cooked and ready to fall, until Christy stepped in and made a massive ($700 million dolars) gift to condo developers.

Funkey Monkey
Guest
Funkey Monkey

My guess is that you own?

Rent not buy
Guest
Rent not buy

In 2015 it was cheaper to rent than buy.
In 2016 it was cheaper to rent than buy.
In 2017 it is cheaper to rent than buy.

Nothing to have missed.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Except for the massive run-up in the last 10 years. Condos are still selling and they aren’t being rented out to locals.

2020, it is cheaper to rent than buy – if you can find a place that rent to locals.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Unsubstantiated bullshit claims…..?

Oh, hey Oracle!

ostritch
Member
ostritch

Like being right when you’re wrong? 2014 it was the same to rent or buy. That was your window. You missed it. And for that matter condos were range bound for the five years before that.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Nonsense.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Strong argument, Newcomer. Ostrich is correct and there are torrents of data on this very site to support that. Dave even predicted the flat market in advance.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

We have run the numbers countless times. You can only get the same buy/rent if you subtract principal repayment, which is speculation as you assume constant or increasing equity.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Constant (or near to) isn’t exactly an unreasonable assumption given that long term RE prices track inflation. You also can’t assume your equity will go to zero, which is effectively how your calculations work.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

My calculations work the way everyone’s calculations worked for all of recorded time, until a few years ago in places like Vancouver.

Counting on the resale value of a property in your decision to buy is the very essence of speculation. But don’t let me stop you. There are lots of places out there that are cheaper to buy than to rent if you include an arbitrary equity gain. Even a West Van McMansion can be cheaper to buy than to rent by those metrics. Go for it, man.

Just me
Guest
Just me

People who took the gamble in the past 15 years have made more money that you probably will make in the next 20 years.
You are arrogantly preaching to people who have made mountains of money while you rented.

I am not happy about it, but it is the truth. If waiting for the day of reckoning makes you feel better, so be it. But don’t make a fool of yourself. So far buyers have won (big time).

If you really want to do something useful, make it clear to our elected official that Chinese millionaires are no longer welcome.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

I’m not talking about speculating on equity gain. Read my reply again.

Or maybe you could show me a property which has gone to zero? Don’t let me stop you, man.

And no, not all properties – especially large SFH – are cheaper to buy by this method. But for many condos it still makes sense. Or at least did until about 4 weeks ago.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

You cannot find such an example. Several people have tried an none have succeeded. It works out OK when you imagine it, I guess. But when you run the numbers, it never works.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Newcomer, if you think that you are inthe money by renting over the oast few years, you are delusional.

donut
Guest
donut
ostritch
Member
ostritch
Bears, WAKE UP. If there isn’t A LOT more inventory and very soon, prices will skyrocket. As it is people are paying insane prices for absolute sh*it! 1002-1355 West Broadway. Really a non-preferred (35 yr old) building in S Granville. 1600 sq ft penthouse with views of the kind of ugly Oak St surrounds but then onto and over the water facing westwards. Asks 1.198M get 1.301M. The oh one tells me someone was worried about not getting it. This one built in 1980 and fugly building. 201 674 W 17TH AVE, so 2nd floor on the alley. Ask 579K, gets 573K. There’s your price decline. Two years ago, it probably would sit. Now there’s literally nothing else to buy. So small 2 bedroom at less than 800 sq ft. Big mansion on the water side of Point Grey goes… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

It is not the bears’ fault if Christy Clark and the BC Libs suddenly decided to resuscitate the market. Within a few weeks Krusty delivered two knock out punches to the bears: (i) free money for downpayments; (ii) effective repeal of the Foreigh Buyers Tax by promising to allow work-permit holders to buy.
Point number (ii) above is critical: she basically brought back into the market Chinese money.

People get the government they deserve. If they cannot afford a home, I hope the go homeless. They should not vote for Christy Clark.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

regarding point (ii)…
krusty not only kicked many recent sellers in the balls by implementing the FBT in the first place (thereby pressuring sellers to lower asking prices), she also landed another shot to the chops by doing an about face on chinese new years. the ultimate slap in the face will occur when post aug 2 foreign buyers end up getting the 15% cash back, now about that class action lawsuit…something tells me it just magically goes away.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Krusty is a horrible human being but a very effective politician. It will take an herculean effort to get rid of her.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

i would imagine she’ll keep details of the FBT reversal under wraps until the last minute. should it become widely known by the joe sixpacks this is indeed occurring (contrary to what is being blurted out every 2 minutes in the commercials) it could be a deal breaker. add to this the fact that bc ferries, bc hydro, icbc are all being run into the ground either on purpose or due to total incompetence, horgan might have something to talk about. if he wants to swing for the fences, he should revisit at the very least the deleted email story and/or a host of other scandals dating back to the very beginning

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

How do you privatize government agencies & crown corp if you don’t run them into the ground first?

history
Guest
history

easy, have them issue bonds to hedge funds. BC Ferries was hooped into doing this, and like good little ivy league yankee hedge Hogs, they made BCF raise prices sky high.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

But it is not totally privatized yet. The gov’t still owns it as a crown corporation.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
ostritch
Member
ostritch

A local Trump would do it with a message of Locals First. In fact, that message would work at City Hall too.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

So when is BPOM & CR & YVR get together to start a new party for at least the next CoV Civic election?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Unlikely. West coast citizens aren’t exactly known for their intolerance and bigotry.

Just me
Guest
Just me

But many of them have had enough of millionaire migrants.

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

I gained respect for the libs when they announced the foreign tax without any warning and started immediately. They understood that giving a future date to the tax would cause a surge in buying. I judge them on this and because of this, they knew that their free money for ftbs and the relaxing of the foreign tax would cause a surge. Respect lost.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I never gained respect if the BC Libs. I always suspected they were up to no good. You cannot (!) trust Krusty.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

Wake up and do what, exactly? Would you suggest a startled gasp, a bemused grin, what?

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Do what BPOM & CR & YVR have done? Man up, join the army and kick some Chinese ass? Follow the bear leaders and rid Canada of the Chinese menace?

history
Guest
history

Bears, check out March Kelowna at myrealtycheck.ca
theories why the Month has started so brutally bearish?

Brian Ripley
Guest

My Vancouver Housing Charts
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html
The manic detached buying spree moved prices up 21.5% per year since the JAN 2013 low. HPI Prices now are deflating at 11.4% since the peak in July 2016.

As pointed out here from other commenters, the strata market has been goosed.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

I’m just reporting what I’m told, and I’m told that restaurant’s specialty buns are imported from China, not made in Vancouver / Canada, and the reason it’s special and unique and authentic is because the meat is grade A dog meat. But to get around any potential import issue, they label it as pork on the packaging.

As for reporting to health authority, why do I want the extra work? I don’t eat in Chinese restaurants and their greasy slop, and me reporting it is not going to stop the dog slaughter in China. Not to mention it’s pretty easy to figure out who report it since they aren’t a lot of non-Chinese eat there or know the secret.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Shush, troll.

Shinola
Guest
Shinola

Let people eat what they like to eat. After all this is their city and about the time to stop this nonsense of Vancouver being Canadian.

Bag it and tag it
Member
Bag it and tag it

send the the meat in for a DNA test, then reveal your results to the media.

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

You going to pay for it and take the risk from backlash by people who rich, spoiled rotten, and are now quite pissed at you?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Pay for what?

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

Those buns he’s making fun of might contain more chicken meat than a subway chicken sandwich.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

name the restaurant

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

I can’t read Chinese.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

address?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

And you’re a liar.

history
Guest
history

when you see Star Meat on a chinese menu, you’re getting Rat

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

If you are lucky…there are worse things than rat now. Read the news…

Confucius
Guest
Confucius

Wow, looks like someone is a major loser and they eat scapegoat all day. I would be better off if I bought, but I made that decision. Instead of blaming others I’ve accepted it and I’ve been improving myself and getting ready for new opportunities. Wake yourself up.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29

Vancouver considers allowing laneway houses to be stratified for first-time buyers
http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/03/03/vancouver-considers-allowing-laneway-houses-to-be-stratified.html

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

This is another example of the “affordability” that everyone is trying to come up with, when the real path to affordability is to prick the bubble and truly let prices reset.

Just me
Guest
Just me

It is almost a taboo, but let me say it loud and clear:
“Christy, affordability means lower prices. Owners must take a hit. There is no other way”.
All the rest is just nonsense. The BC Libs are full of it.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

no, your definition of affordability means free housing for free loaders. there are plenty around here.

Just me
Guest
Just me

30% adjustment from current prices is free? In which universe?

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

“Affordability means lower prices” is exactly the truth that no developer, realtor, politician, or homeowner is willing to acknowledge.

Any other tricks to keep prices elevated but improve “affordability” really just mean that either locals live in smaller and smaller spaces or incur greater and greater debt to enrich a lucky few.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

Which policy, if implemented, would ‘prick the bubble’?

patriotz
Member

Ontario tried a speculation tax on property, and the market ‘collapsed overnight’

If you’re willing to settle for a longer wait, just getting rid of all of Christy’s attempts to prop up the market, i.e. property tax deferral and interest free loans, would probably be enough.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Taxing the carrying costs of housing, especially for people who don’t produce significant income locally.
This is the policy outlined last year by academics at UBC and SFU.
It is also easy to implement, as it works just like a tax deduction based on declared income.

The market would adjust iver 30% overnight if that simple and equitable policy were adopted.

Chance that Krusty will do it after election day? A big fat zero.

If you vite for Christy Ckark, you vote for higher prices.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite
City level: 1) Enforce Airbnb bans 2) More enforcement against illegal rental suites 3) Empty home tax (needs to be implemented and enforced, not just announced) Provincial level: 1) Get rid of property tax deferral, except maybe for special cases 2) Get rid of the First Time Buyer program (interest free loan) 3) Apply Foreign Buyer Tax province wide. 4) Like patriotz and Just Me (and even space) have posted before, increase carrying costs of housing, and reduce income tax. 5) Add additional tax on homes, means tested by reported income. If someone has no history of T4s in the Province or Canada they should be paying a fair share of taxes if living in a million dollar home. Federally: 1) Tighten CMHC lending even more. 2) Capital Gains exemption on Primary Residence should be limited to once every X… Read more »
Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

USCIS Will Temporarily Suspend Premium Processing for All H-1B Petitions

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-will-temporarily-suspend-premium-processing-all-h-1b-petitions

Don’t worry international coperate globalists, Canada is still open for business and we are in the same time zone as Trumarica.

patriotz
Member

“Premium processing” is paying an extra fee to get in a high priority queue. The suspension is to better process their backlog of existing applications. Also this seems to happen regularly, here is the same thing from two years ago. So BFD in other words.

http://badmuslaw.com/uscis-alert-premium-processing-temporarily-suspending-for-h-1b-extensions/

KickThemOut
Member
KickThemOut

Or maybe, just maybe, Trump is starting to get his program and policies slowly through the Liberal fanatics heaven that’s the government.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Unlikely. He’s achieved essentially none of the “first day” or “first hour” things he campaigned on and it’s not because he’s been obstructed by the opposition.

Also, you know as well as I do that if he was responsible for anything like that he’d complement it with a nonsensical Tweet claiming some sort of triumph.

patriotz
Member

What Trump has said explicitly is that he wants the US immigration system to be more like Canada’s. Which means fewer immigrants from Latin America and more from you know where.

And no cutbacks on legal temporary foreign workers, which is understandable given he employs them himself.

paulb
Member

New
151
Price Change
32
Sold
118

TI:8074

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

North Van Detached:
Feb 2016 = 159 sold, Median $1.588M.
Feb 2017 = 88 sold, Median $1.627M.
West Van Detached:
Feb 2016 = 141 sold, Median $3.32M.
Feb 2017 = ONLY 35 sold, Median $3.21M.

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode

Flipping Special: 1540 Wesbrook Crescent, UBC.
Listed for $12,800,000 (rented out $4,600/month)
Assessed Value $10,911,900

Sale Date February 27, 2014
Sale Price $7,700,000

Sale Date February 14, 2012
Sale Price $7,060,000

Sale Date March 17, 2011
Sale Price $5,330,000

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2134710&rowc=12&rowp=11&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=21&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=3000000&MXPRC=992000000&SCTP=RS

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

What do you think, Shut It Down? Would this place be cheaper to buy or to rent? If you say it would be cheaper to rent, it would be nice if you could show us your math.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Clearly cheaper to rent, but thanks for the sarcasm.

Newcomer
Member
Newcomer

No, but seriously, why? Is it not because you don’t think that the portion of the mortgage payments that exceed the market rent can be relied on to pay off equity that can be recovered at a later date? If that is the case, why is it any different for a condo? There were no condos in 2014 that could be bought for a monthly cost that was lower than the rent. When we have run those calculations here before, the only way to argue equivalency is to count the increase in equity. But, as this example makes clear, that is not how sensible people evaluate something as being equal to rent.

patriotz
Member

“If that is the case, why is it any different for a condo?”

What’s different for a condo is that depreciation amounts for much greater % of the purchase price, thus the break even price/rent is lower.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

You don’t need to count the increase in equity (appreciation). You only need to have an expectation that a decent proportion of your equity gets returned to you.

But if you expect not only to get positive cash flow (including prinicpal as an expense) for 20 years AND a free property at the end of it paid for by the tenant then good luck competing against more reasonable investors.

In your example above I could tell that the rent is about the same as a million dollar mortgage payment. So given the $13m price there really wasn’t much need to do further calculation.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

SIDA, using your methodology could you share what you feel is the break even sale price of that property?

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Depends on how much it would rent for, but I’d surely count 80% of my principal at least. As in, factor in an expectation of a possible 20% drop but zero appreciation (no speculation). It’s hardly speculating to assume that a property won’t go to zero.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Also depends on interest rates and how much leverage is involved. I believe there are still properties that make sense from an investment perspective at the lower end of the market.

Bear Vancouverite
Member
Bear Vancouverite

The property was rented for $4600/mo, let’s assume that is the rental rate you can get after you buy, and assume no vacancy for the same of simplicity.

With that rental income, 20-25% down, and current interest rates of say 2.8%, using your investment methodology, what is the break even purchase price of this property for an investor?

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

Trump is right again.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/police-3-teen-girls-kidnapped-salvadoran-gang-houston-195556145.html

What the locustshave done to Vancouver is a thousand times worse.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

How does that make Trump right about anything?

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Janet Yellen hints at March rate hike — and more to come”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/yellen-speech-interest-rates-1.4008671

“Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen gave investors a pretty clear sign on Friday that the U.S. central bank is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate later this month — and more hikes to follow later this year.”

southseacompany
Member
southseacompany

“Toronto’s housing market could ‘run out of control’: Warnings mount amid 27.7% price surge”, BNN

https://www.bnn.ca/toronto-s-housing-market-could-run-out-of-control-warnings-mount-amid-27-7-price-surge-1.686538

““[Toronto] is not a market operating normally,” BMO Capital Markets Chief Economist Doug Porter told BNN via email Friday in response to fresh data from the Toronto Real Estate Board showing the average selling price across the Greater Toronto Area soared 27.7 per cent year-over-year in February to $875,983.”

““My biggest concern here is that speculation will now take full command and the market will absolutely run out of control, eventually ‎leading to a serious correction,” Porter added. “Better for policymakers to take steps to cool things now, before conditions completely get out of hand.””

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Still way cheaper than Vancouver. Amazing how the mainstream press and politicians care when prices bubble in Toronto but have effectively ignored Vancouver for the past 5 years.

YVR
Guest
YVR

I think the GTA market is around 5 times the size of Metro Vancouver. That would make it much more important. The banks, CMHC, etc. would have 5 times the losses with a similar bust. I bet the federal gov is going to act on the GTA RE market this coming budget. Vancouver will be collateral damage.

Just me
Guest
Just me

You might be right there. Our best shot is to hope for continued appreciation in Toronto. If it goes parabolic, we might see some effective regulation that impacts Vancouver.

patriotz
Member

Population wise the whole province of Ontario is around 5 times the size of Metro Vancouver, and GTA is about half of Ontario. But the political importance is greater than the ratios would indicate due to the number of swing ridings between the Liberals and Conservatives.

Van real estate buff
Guest
Van real estate buff

Mar 3, 2017 Daily Video Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News
https://youtu.be/Jg9mteaA-H4

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

time to stop advertising for these useless none sense clips.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Love the clips, keep them coming. Great way to inform people about the market.
I am sure the BC Libs would like to silence you.
A heartfelt thank you!

patriotz
Member

British Columbia: The ‘wild west’ of fundraising

Lobbyists and other power brokers are routinely buying their way into British Columbia’s political inner circles by donating generously to the party in power several times a year, a practice industry insiders consider the cost of doing business in a province with an entrenched pay-to-play culture.

Just me
Guest
Just me

This is what 20 years continuously in power does. It corrupts.
We need change.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?

Change? That’s what people said and voted for Trudeau and look how that turned out. Things were going along just fine but people wanted change because they didn’t like Harper.

Sunny Boy will add $100 Bil to our National Debt and go down as one of the worst PM’s in history.

BC is booming and leading Canada. Kristy has her flaws but be careful voting for “change”. She is the leader but the party is much more than the leader.

Whistler or Bust?
Guest
Whistler or Bust?
Further: Trudeau’s Liberals see sharp drop in poll numbers, CBC reports The honeymoon appears to be over for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party. CBC’s poll analyst Éric Grenier reports the Liberals plummeted 6.8 points in the polls over the past three months, bringing them down to their lowest levels of support since the 2015 federal election. This drop has instantly boosted the Conservatives and the New Democrats, who are still trying to find their feet as each party searches for a new leader following crushing election losses. The numbers provided by CBC shows the Liberals sitting at 40.5 per cent support (down 6.8 per cent), the Conservatives at 31.8 per cent (up 3.5 per cent) and the NDP at 15.6 per cent (up 2.3 per cent). The Greens and the Bloc Québécois are polling at 5.4 per… Read more »
patriotz
Member

You might like to know that the federal Liberals are not participating in the BC provincial election, although some of their alumni such as Christy Clark are.

It’s pretty comical trying to associate them with the BC NDP given the latter’s membership is the same as the federal NDP.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“It’s pretty comical trying to associate them with the BC NDP”

It is true the parties are not affiliated but they are both political parties led by career politicians. History tells us politicians of all parties including the BC NDP do not keep their promises once elected. Do not expect the BC NDP to be any different this time. For the party in power at least you can expect the status quo so you do know what you are getting.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I would argue the opposite is true: I am very worried that Krusty will keep her promises if and when she gets re-elected.

She promised to do her utmost to preserve the “hard-earned” equity of homeowners. Read: house prices should not go down ever!

You vote for her, you vote for higher prices.

YVR
Guest
YVR

The fundraising laws were the same when the NDP was in power for two terms. Why the NDP not change them at that time?

patriotz
Member

Short answer is Glen Clark didn’t want to. You know what he’s doing these days.

YVR
Guest
YVR

And neither did Mike Harcourt before him nor Ujjal Dosanjh after him. WIll Horgan be different? Who knows but the NDP track record indicates they will keep the status quo. If the NDP are in power donations will roll in. There is a big difference when you are in power and can impact policy.

Just me
Guest
Just me

I don’t know whether the donation rules will be radically reformed under the NDP.
What I know for sure is that they will NOT be reformed, and perhaps even weakened, under the BC Libs.

Having a single party in government for 20 years is guarantee for corruption. And believe me, unlike you, I am not leaning right nor left. I just don’t care about politics.

patriotz
Member

“BC is booming and leading Canada.”

Leading Canada in growth of personal debt, house prices and homelessness. This is the foundation that Christy’s “boom” is built on. BC’s provincial debt has also grown substantially, not as much as some other provinces but those don’t sell the fiction of a “balanced budget”.

YVR
Guest
YVR

“Leading Canada in growth of personal debt, house prices and homelessness. ”

Correct. Exactly why the NDP will not deliberately crash housing in BC. They need to keep it going just like the Liberals or we go into a depression and they can get none of their agenda done and will be thrown out in the next election.

patriotz
Member

“Exactly why the NDP will not deliberately crash housing in BC.”

The NDP has not promised to bring prices down at all. What they have promised is to address some of the tax evasion by wealthy homeowners both offshore land local, discourage properties from being kept empty, and create more non-market housing. Maybe half measures, but that’s far removed from Christy’s insane pumping.

Just me
Guest
Just me
Let me be clear. There is no amount of tax relief by the BC Libs that would make me better than what i would gain from lower housing prices (and I currently pay the highest marginal rate for Provincial income taxes). Nothing! This is likely true for the vast majority of the Van Metro population. House prices have become the single, most important problem in my view. And the BC Libs are doggedly determined to avoid any decrease in house prices. Regarding your statement about Trudeau (who is not my favorite guy by any stretch, I should remind you that: — the Harper government was the one that gave us 40 year amortization for a good few years, as well as introduced progressively higher intervention by the CMHC; — the Mulroney government is the one that gave us the Investor… Read more »
history
Guest
history

‘WildWest’ was a name for a Vcr westside property maintanence company, ghey.
Hankering for old days?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Good news from Xinhua.
Tightening coming to Chins. It will be felt here as well.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-03/04/c_136101756.htm

UBC in Crisis Mode
Guest
UBC in Crisis Mode
kabloona
Member
kabloona
Housing market will burst like all bubbles do: Pape https://www.thestar.com/business/wealth/2017/03/04/housing-market-will-burst-like-all-bubbles-do-pape.html Gordon Pape writes that between 1989 and 1996, Toronto house prices fell by 40 per cent, adjusted for inflation. Sat., March 4, 2017 “The other day, a reporter called to ask me about Toronto real estate prices. She was specifically interested in whether older people with a large capital gain on their property should sell their homes and move into rental accommodation. Now, I don’t claim to be an expect on real estate, but I know a bubble when I see one and the Toronto housing market is in one now. That’s not just my opinion. Doug Porter, chief economist for the Bank of Montreal, used the “bubble” word recently in describing the housing market in the Greater Toronto Area. He said that prices anywhere within commuting area of the… Read more »
history
Guest
history

Pump for REITs.

what you will never read is selling your house and downsizing to a vehicle, which is the best thing in the world.

BubbleTea
Guest
BubbleTea

Only reason I am voting for the NDP, Eby.
“I was disappointed to see the significant non-compliance by realtors, found by Fintrac,” Eby said. “Police should be knocking on the door of these brokerages and saying, ‘Who are you taking money from and why are you hiding it?’”
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/real-estate-scams-need-high-tech-attention-say-vancouver-and-canadian-experts

Just me
Guest
Just me

The silence pof the BC Libs about this is embarassing. I cannot believe they ignore it as if there was no problem at all.

bullwhip29
Guest
bullwhip29
Polozi Scheme
Guest
Polozi Scheme
patriotz
Member

So can someone explain why anyone – including some people on this forum – claim that Oz is some sort of model in controlling the RE bubble?

Just me
Guest
Just me

Do you know how Australia would be without their curbs on Asian buying? They are in the same time zone, and geographically much close.
My guess is that, while imperfect, their curbs are avoiding a full and complete overhaul of the country.

patriotz
Member

Limiting a segment of buyers (e.g. offshore) to some segment of sales (e.g. “new”) does not change aggregate demand which is what determines prices.

So in fact the outcome is no different than if they had no controls at all, and they know it. There is one difference – without controls you wouldn’t have as many existing properties torn down for “new” properties which foreigners can buy. Oh and they collect some trivial tax revenue too.

Just me
Guest
Just me

The incentive to build new homes for new buyers is not misplaced. The implementation is poor if/when they allow to destroy and rebuild.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Limiting a segment of buyers (e.g. offshore) to some segment of sales (e.g. “new”) does not change aggregate demand which is what determines prices.

Of course it makes zero difference in demand or prices. But as demonstrated here it fools simpletons.

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Sydney is two hours ahead of Beijing.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Right. Exactly my point. It is like variation within Canada. Negligible.
If Australia is not careful, it will become part of the Sinosphere. Not just economically but also politically (and most worrying, socially, in terms of social customs and rule of law enforcement).

Shut It Down Already
Guest
Shut It Down Already

Ah, the Daily Mail – that famous impartial source for all things related to immigration. You might as well cite Fox News.

MarKoz
Member

The Daily Mail is the only major news outlet that Wikipedia has banned as a source for citations.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/feb/08/wikipedia-bans-daily-mail-as-unreliable-source-for-website

Burnaby
Guest
Burnaby
I am sitting in my rental house in Burnaby as watch the Asians who recently bought my elderly neigbour’s house last year where they raised their family for over 50 years. They paid $400,000 over asking in May of 2016 at the peak insanity. They show up now and then to check out the place and then leave again not to be seen again for another month or two. Meanwhile, the place slowly deteriorates into the ground and sits empty. This travesty is unfolding all over the lower mainland. This is an absolute crime against the hard working and taxpaying people of Canada that this has taken place. Disgusting that our houses have now become speculative commodities. I also live in a house owned by a speculator in which I could never afford to buy it. The whole area is… Read more »
Just me
Guest
Just me

Krusty calls them “investors”. She claims they are good for our economy.
You draw your own conclusions.

YVR
Guest
YVR

Asians who recently bought my elderly neigbour’s house last year where they raised their family for over 50 years. They paid $400,000 over asking…
This is an absolute crime against the hard working and taxpaying people of Canada that this has taken place.

Not really in this case. It looks like a hard working family just hit the lottery paid for by foreign money who will, in the end, lose most of what they invested. If your former neighbors do not buy again they have done very well. Good for them.

I do agree it is sad to see perfectly good housing sit empty. Burnaby has the most pathetic mayor and council of any city on the BC.

Just me
Guest
Just me

Hope you are just drunk because it is saturday.
Are you saying that it is all A-OK because one family hit the jackpot and got a lot of money from the Asuan buyers?

Do you realize that housing is not just a safe-deposit box? The costs to others, and the whole economy, of this single transaction is a lot larger than the gains of that single family.

You cannot replace that plot of land that has been removed from the market. It is gine and won’t be used for housing for years to come.

Bestplaceonearth
Guest
Bestplaceonearth

You and your hers should rise up, and demand free land in the West side for every one. While you are at it, demand high speed internet to come with it.

Just me
Guest
Just me

You don’t deserve response. Why waste time and effort.

bestplaceonearth
Guest
bestplaceonearth

no one put and gun on your head and force you to respond.

Burnaby
Guest
Burnaby

The kids will get it eventually because she went into a care home. Her husband died years ago. You are right abt the useless Burnaby mayor and his cow-towing council they are truly pathetic. They have allowed the social fabric of the city to be destroyed by property speculatio

Best place on meth
Guest
Best place on meth

“This is an absolute crime against the hard working and taxpaying people of Canada that this has taken place.”

I’ve been calling the locust vermin from china “economic terrrorists” for a long time.

Here in Canada, our politicians embrace foreign terrorists, invite them to launder money here and allow them to terrorize us as much as they want, anytime they want.

It’s treason, plain and simple. It should be punishable by death.

Hyper-mega-Bull
Member
Hyper-mega-Bull

When the current owners sell make sure CRA knows that the house was never lived in.

CBM999
Guest
CBM999

Yes, CRA will respond to leads given to them on their website and that one piece of information will be enough to likely ensure they are hit with any capital gains tax.

I’m always shocked at how cavalier people are. Landlords have to remember that all it takes is one pissed off tenant to rat you out to CRA…….

wpDiscuz