BC, Canada, data, Open Topic

Friday Free-for-all! April 21, 2017

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It’s the end of another glorious work-week in the ‘couve and that means it’s time for another fabulous Friday free-for-all!

This is our standard run-on-the-mill end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–Richmond Air BnB RIP
–Vancouver sees first price increase in 8 months
–Should first-timers rethink buying in a hot market?
–Canada shadow banking half the size of banks
–Ontario starts tracking residency for RE purchases
–Define ‘foreign buyer denier’
–Site C losses up to $1 billion?
–Who would benefit from a crash?
–44% like idea of 30% tax on foreign buyers
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments section below and have a superb weekend!

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Londonernow
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Tracking ultimate beneficial ownership needs to be done for all existing homes as well. Not only for new purchases. Most importantly, this information needs to be publicly accessible.

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Just me
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Yes.
And in addition, any change of ownership of numbered firms owning residentual real estate should incur property transaction taxes. It is ridiculous that in Vancouver there are no transaction taxes on Shaugnessy mansions because they are held through numbered companies.
Will the BC Libs introduce such legislation? Or will they csll it red tape anti-business and keep the status quo?

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southseacompany
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“Impact of Ontario’s housing measures likely to be short-lived, say experts”, Maclean’s

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/impact-of-ontarios-housing-measures-likely-to-be-short-lived-say-experts/

” Toronto’s runaway real estate market could take a breather due to Ontario’s new housing measures, but much like what transpired in Vancouver, the impact of the changes is expected to be short-lived, experts say.”

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history
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MacLeans? When have they ever been right? Pulp this magazine for toilet paper.

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southseacompany
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“Vancouver’s presale condo market reaches fever pitch”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/vancouvers-presale-condo-market-reaches-fever-pitch/article34771425/

“The presale market is the “wild west” of the industry, says realtor Steve Saretsky, who posted a blog post recently, titled “Vancouver Pre Sale Condo Ponzi Scheme.” Mr. Saretsky, who often speaks out against his own industry, says it’s common that offshore investors get first dibs on presale purchases. Those purchases are assigned, or flipped, to local buyers at a premium. He says in recent months, as the condo market has hit a fever pitch, so too has the flipping.”

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history
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Refi’s are the Wild West.

Mop andPail is an organ of the Deep State. Another rag that is best pulped for bum wad.

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southseacompany
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“Loonie weakens as cooler inflation slams rate hike talk”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/market-updates/loonie-weakens-as-cooler-inflation-slams-rate-hike-talk/article34771321/

“The Canadian dollar weakened on Friday against its U.S. counterpart as cooler-than-expected domestic inflation reduced pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider interest-rate hikes.”

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southseacompany
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“The Fed’s Sticking to Its Rate-Hike Plan Despite Soft Patch”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/fed-unmoved-by-soft-patch-hardens-conviction-on-rate-hike-plan

“Don’t bet on the Federal Reserve blinking again.”

“U.S. central bankers appear to be on course to raise interest rates twice more this year and remain confident in their forecast for growth of around 2 percent despite a series of weak first-quarter reports.”

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Oracle
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Propaganda.

Please comment on the articles you post.

Futures indicate only 1 more rate hike this year of 0.25%.

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Dave
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To hear the Green Party folks talk about the Site C dam as being uneconomical is infuriating. These same people want to shut down the oil economy and claim that alternative sources of energy can replace them. But as we know, those sources are very expensive (see Ontario). A hydroelectric dam will provide centuries of clean renewable energy and it’s a proven technology.

The argument that the power will be used for Natural Gas is stupid to anybody who has ever observed a powerline. We can move it to wherever we like and it can replace hydrocarbons.

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DaMann
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Welcome to the Green party. Let’s eliminate all fossil fuels but we have no idea how to replace them yet…

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Best place on meth
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SIte C is a make work project.

We don’t need the power and if we export it we lose money.

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history
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Green is talking their book. What’s more revealing in Peace River BC, is that there are 3 independents running. Why is that?

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Combat roach
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Unlimited locust’s demand while shills are still arguing the foreign factor and shit…

“Yes, stuff is being sold primarily overseas because it is the path of least resistance for the seller,” he says. “The demand is unlimited…I don’t think that not selling a 60-storey highrise luxury-apartment is going to solve the affordability issue in Vancouver.” realtor Keith Roy.
I don’t think the point can be made more clear than this. A realtor has said the demand is “unlimited”. The implication of this is that supply side intervention (building more) will not work, because the demand is “unlimited”.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/vancouvers-presale-condo-market-reaches-fever-pitch/article34771425/comments/

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Shut It Down Already
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Demand is not unlimited. Saying that it is merely makes the locals fear that they have to make a dumb decision to buy at any price on the expectation that if they don’t they’ll be priced out – or alternatively make them count on the fact they can sell in 6 months for an extra $100K to one of the “unlimited” buyers.

Are you trying to help these dishonest salespeople?

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Combat roach
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Locust’s demand is unlimited unless shut off by a government. Locals do not have access to it. Shit goes first to Shanghai, Beijing and Hong Kong to “friends and family”.

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Can you point to any other bubble in history that has been preserved indefinitely by unlimited demand?

What makes you think a seller would artificially limit their pool of buyers, which almost guarantees that they won’t get the best possible price?

You’re so gullible.

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Combat roach
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Of course, not theoretically indefinite unlimited demand. At some point, the human kind might not exist or the planet will eventually disintegrate so there will be no need for demand. However, no bubble in history has seen such huge number of available participants, potentially a hundred of millions and in theory even way more.

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Hundreds of millions of potential buyers of Vancouver RE from China?

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Combat roach
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You split hairs now but even you would agree that Vancouver is one of the Chinese preferable destinations to do “whatever they need to do” and that there are more than plenty of them compared to the local population. Perhaps if they would do the same in India that would be less noticeable due to adequate numbers of people involved in the “equation”.

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So why isn’t this unlimited demand reflected in the stats? Is it because the greedy locals are aggressively outbidding them?

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Combat roach
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What about the empty objects where stats doesn’t tell the whole story. How about the money that comes here and local “friends and family” parks it on the safe place until further notice? Yesterday I saw something so called Solo District in Burnaby ( had some appointment there) and couldn’t fathom the number of shiny new condos which are insanely expensive but sold. It is at the scale of the whole glass jungle built in Yaletown around Cambie bridge but larger. Who lives there, where do they all work, go to school, etc, how they got into those condos if they work and pay taxes here, no way? Is it possible that they are all locals with high-end jobs and incomes that the rest of us even don’t know about? Where are all those companies and businesses that all those… Read more »
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So your entire position is based on the fact that you cannot fathom certain things? Why do you find it impossible to imagine that people who live next to a Skytrain station might commute into Vancouver because they cannot afford to live there?

Phase 1 units started in the low 200s. Maybe that’s insanely expensive to you.

http://www.vancouversun.com/touch/location+price+draws+solo+district/6966915/story.html

No wonder you’re confused.

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Combat roach
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Are you a realtor?

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Shut It Down Already
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“Anybody who disagrees with me must be a realtor, or Chinese, or both!”

Pretty lazy debating style, wouldn’t you agree? It just goes to show how little attention you’ve been paying.

Ever considered the far more likely possibility that you might simply be mistaken in your “analysis”?

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Just me
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David Ley is an internationally recognized geographer, and former head of the Geog. Deoartment at UBC.
David Ley, by and karge, would agree with Combat Roach. Is he lazy and confysed as well.
You try to silence good arguments with a polished attitude and tine. You should be ashamed of yourself.

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Best place on meth
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You are still wasting your time with Shut It Down All-Rennie?

Shame on you!

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“Appeal to authority”

http://www.don-lindsay-archive.org/skeptic/arguments.html#authority

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Just me
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I am appealing to facts. It so happens that these facts are regularly cited by scientifica authority.

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Specifically which facts? And which scientific authority?

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Oracle
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HAM with parents who are PR and one non-resident.

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Ulsterman
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I understand your frustration but there is an element of truth that these pre-sale studio and one bed condos are still very accessible to specuvestors. From the linked Van Sun article (2012) “Prices: Junior One-bed (479-489 sq. ft) $229,900 to $243,900; One-bed (587-616 sq. ft) $289,900 to $375,900…” So a one bedroom could be bought for about a $1350 mortgage and $300 in tax and strata (it was 35c/sqft strata). If you are part of the “prices only go up and half my payment goes to principal” mantra, then i can see how regular people can line up overnight to get one of these “homes”. These new one bedrooms are renting for close to $1500 now, so from the owner’s perspective they’ve seen capital gains and the renter pays are the interest, tax, strata. I’m sure the same logic is… Read more »
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Just me
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This is the crux of the problem in Vancouver.
Other cities may be different but here Chinese money drives valuations along the whole value chain.
The problem is that many people like it that way. And keep voting for the BC Libs to keep the circus going.

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Oracle
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Then this will.become a Chinese colony.

With their laws and customs. Hope the BC Liberals are ready for that.

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Diadora
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Vancouver’s presale condo market reaches fever pitch
“it’s common that offshore investors get first dibs on presale purchases. Those purchases are assigned, or flipped, to local buyers at a premium.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/vancouvers-presale-condo-market-reaches-fever-pitch/article34771425/?click=sf_globe
Krusty, Justin, you sold out Canada.

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Combat roach
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Not only that they sold Canada out, they are very proud of it. They must be thinking how they reinvented the wheel and how successful they are. The same way when drug dealer sees himself as a smart businessman.

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Joe Condo
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Pre-sale buyers usually buy at a discount as compared to current resale prices, especially if they buy in bulk. Since developers need to pre-sale the vast majority of units in order to receive financing to build, this is the way developers entice pre-sale buyers to buy into the development.

It is the market that sets resale prices, hence the real driver of the price is the idiot who buys the flipped property from the pre-sale buyer.

So who’s that?

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squeak
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I also like to add in regards to the “unlimited supply”. Canada’s population is 35 million China’s population is 1, 400 million. Canada’s housing homes is/was built in numbers to echoe the number of people that live and actually work and actually pay taxes here in Canada. So with the relatively open door that Canada has and no what so ever concern with vast amounts of money being “parked” here, or used to speculate here, is doing the true Canadian population no good what so ever. And we know it, and we see it every day and it hurts the Canadians, it shows up in various ways: homelessness, crime, young leaving the province, frustrations voiced every day, the list goes on and on.. And what is the current gov. doing about it? No.. don’t anwer, I go by actions, not… Read more »
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Just me
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I like the analogy! Very fitting to Vancouver, bith East and West.
This does not feel loke a rich and pleasant city to many people, not anymore.

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Diadora
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“Obviously they presold them offshore,” says Mr. Saretsky. “They bought them three years ago, made a lot of money, and they don’t have any intention of living in them.

“If you call one of the developers, they say, ‘we are only selling to friends and family and we are open to the public next week.’ But what is friends and family? What is the definition? It’s basically offshore. And everybody in the industry knows it, and nobody likes to talk about it.”

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Hyper-mega-Bull
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Remember when patriotz’s buddy Jesse left the blog because he said we were being racist for saying that HAM is driving the market?

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Shut It Down Already
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Got a quote from Jesse, with link?

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Best place on meth
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I remember.

Good riddance to the politically correct.

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Bear Vancouverite
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I don’t recall him leaving because of HAM debates, he left because of actual racist comments. Nice try twisting things around though.

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Provide one example of a racist comment that caused him to leave.

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Shut It Down Already
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Van Coffee used a racial slur (Feb 5th 2014), which jesse referred to directly in the following comment announcing his departure.

That pretty much defines the very moment admin let this blog became a safe haven for knuckle-draggers.

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KickThemOut
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Sunset Beach trashed by potheads. Was the bears among them? Or were they infiltrated by communists agents?

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-field-trashed-during-annual-4-20-pot-protest-says-park-board

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Combat roach
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Spaceshit, fuck off.

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history
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On vcr island some of the richest people you could meet on the street own or manage grow ops. But they are like most BC people, and Canadians in general.. highly indebted from constant mortgage refinancing. Balance Sheet economy still remains the untouchable reality of our times, doesnt matter if you trash a house with a party or misuse indoor plumbing to grow weed… a clever mortgage broker will Save The Day.

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freeloaders had a blast last night.

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2 years 2 months ago
Combat roach
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Blog’s favorite retard spreads his wisdom again.

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2 years 2 months ago
best place on earth
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were you there getting sick with the sickened crowd? are you one of the freeloaders? unfortunate, the retard’s wisdom has been right for so many years should the freeloaders have listened to him.

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2 years 2 months ago
Hyper-mega-Bull
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Guys, listen to smart ppl like patriotz. HAM isn’t driving the market, patriotz says so. Prices will revert to the mean, patriotz says so.

Don’t worry, keep renting like patriotz… Oh wait, he bought a house years ago…

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2 years 2 months ago
history
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just for that, im gonna park my van on the street within eyesight of your place… and sleep in it overnight.

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2 years 2 months ago
Brian Ripley
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Real Estate and Financials have been detached from the Oil patch in Canada since 2013
http://www.chpc.biz/tsx-indexes.html

And most analysts I have read are calling for further weakness in oil pricing and strength in the USD… if so this is going to move the tipping point for weak handed real estate owners to consider listing before the winter season.

I have been out there looking and I see quite a few flippers trying to unload. You can look up the BC Assessment online ***https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/*** and check the assessment (from July 2016) and get a 3 year history of sales… a lot of flippers bought last year which was a banner sales year.

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2 years 2 months ago
history
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Brian, dig a little deeper, and give us the stats on Refi’s. You know what I mean? Like how many Times the 71% of the population refi’d their precious house mortgage the last 20 or 30 years. And while you’re at it, break out the numbers on the Spending Catagories… how much spent for renos, how much for that thong trip to Cabo…. how much for Just Surviving.

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2 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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Feds applaud plan to cool Toronto housing market, but won’t make it national policy

The federal government welcomes Ontario’s move to tax foreign home buyers in and around Toronto, but says it won’t be replicated on a national level because it’s unnecessary in the vast majority of the country.

If the people of BC want more done, they know what they need to do.

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2 years 2 months ago
Combat roach
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Yes, to get rid of locust influx by all means, simple.

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2 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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The BC government has the power to bring prices down regardless of any federal policy including immigration and nobody understands this better than Christy.

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2 years 2 months ago
Best place on meth
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“it won’t be replicated on a national level because it’s unnecessary in the vast majority of the country.”

Eventually it will be necessary unless we want to keep playing Whack-A-Locust®

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2 years 2 months ago
ostritch
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For the part of Vancouver that sits slightly above downtown, and across the water to the South, $1000.00 per square foot is just a memory. Last year’s memory.

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2 years 2 months ago
best place on earth
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no, you don’t say!

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2 years 2 months ago
ostritch
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It didn’t happen because of “the first increase in 8 months”, now did it?

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2 years 2 months ago
paulb
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New
184
Price Change
34
Sold
162
TI:8346

https://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul/

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2 years 2 months ago
paulb
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New
184
Price Change
34
Sold
162
TI:8346

https://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul/

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2 years 2 months ago
Best place on meth
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Horgan to Krusty during debate: ‘Don’t touch me again’

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/don-t-touch-me-again-the-moment-the-provincial-debate-changed-1.4078156

Should Horgan have just let it go or does he have a point when he says “What would have the response been if I laid my hand on the premier?”

I bet she would have accused him of assault.

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2 years 2 months ago
ostritch
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OMG. He’s so weird.

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2 years 2 months ago
Best place on meth
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She’s creepy, putting your hand on someone during a debate is nasty.

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2 years 2 months ago
Just me
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If he had touched her arm, he would have been crucified. They would call him sexist, intimidating, unable to control his istincts.
Kruelty Ckark is cunning: she tried to elicit an e treme response, even using these dirty tricks.
I think Horgan did great to stand up to Kruelty snd hold his ground. Kudos to John!

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2 years 2 months ago
bestplaceonearth
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Mr. J was just like a virgin boy being so offended for a handshake. The true color showed.

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2 years 2 months ago
Just me
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Kruelty Clark was trying to irk him, with her evil grin and pretentious demeanor. She probably jetted off somewhere after the interview, on a plane lartly oaid fkr by developer buddies.
Even her supporters dislike her, but she makes them money so they keep voting for her.

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2 years 2 months ago
history
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John Turner used to grope women’s ass, now it’s women that want to sexualize their politics. Which parent does Crusty’s kid have a better relationship with? Anyone are to look into this?

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2 years 2 months ago
squeak
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She should keep her hands to herself, untimely and inappropriate touching during a debate in front of a nation.

I think he had every right to express his feelings about this.

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2 years 2 months ago
southseacompany
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“The risk of a financial crisis in Canada is growing”, Maclean’s

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-risk-of-a-financial-crisis-in-canada-is-growing/

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2 years 2 months ago
history
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and the puppet masters will be right there, leverage peoples misery, building debtors prisons. All you have to do, to get a lucrative contract govt, is build Christy, Horgan or Weaver, a cedar deck.

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2 years 2 months ago
Best place on meth
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Entire NEWS 1130 debate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1SYavgIdUDY

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2 years 2 months ago
history
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ii miss Newcomers debates. He was a rather sanguine figure. But something happened and he took flight. Perhaps he’s found a new city to post leisurely comments?

who knows? He knew Pittsburgh rather well, and a few other places.

Maybe the cold and rain got him down? Or he figured hanging out here isnt quite like the yacht club.

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2 years 2 months ago
Best place on meth
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The clown is still here, reading and voting despite proclaiming he will not participate in this blog.

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2 years 2 months ago
Sebastien
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Good news!

The Greens are leading on Vancouver Island: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbm8bHX28HE

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2 years 2 months ago
history
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We need a Pet and Animal Welfare Party like Holland. They would immediately gain 4-5% of the popular vote. Dont laugh, This sizable part of the electorate really only care about their pets, and how their mutts project Owner Power

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2 years 2 months ago
patriotz
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Single boomer bought house in metro Vancouver 2 years ago.

“On average, Bethany barely manages to break even with her expenses,” the planner says. Her expenses are likely understated. “There is no extra cushion for emergencies or major expenses like the replacement of a car or major house repairs.” She has no budget for entertainment, hobbies or dining out.

House rich, cash-flow poor – and she wants to retire early

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2 years 2 months ago
YVR
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A single lady buys her first house with money borrowed from her RRSP for a down payment in her mid 50s about 6 years from when she wants to retire. Her $450K mortgage will be paid off when she is near 80 years old. She pays out $3000 for her housing expenses before maintenance. Just another example of why we are in a housing bubble. 55 years old, $450K mortgage, single with a $3000 housing expense when she retires? Yes foreign buyers are driving this market.

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2 years 2 months ago
Just me
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People have lost their mind. And this is partly due to the very deleterious effect of foreign money inflows.
Nobody denies the irrational local responses. But you forgetbthe trigger to those responss.

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2 years 2 months ago
history
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you’ll lose your mind trying to make sense of Mop and Pail fiction as fact.

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2 years 2 months ago
realist
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I up-voted you for “foreign buyers are driving this market”. Of course, I was distracted and overlooked your sarcasm…
YVR, I am waiting for someone to explain to me the following asymmetry: new money coming in to the RE market as first time buyers at the low end is generally agreed to “drive markets”, whereas millions pouring in at the top end is irrelevant to the market. Can you enlighten me?

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2 years 2 months ago
YVR
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I have never heard someone make such as statement other than you. You may have noticed the high end is not selling with 4 years of inventory and foreigners have disappeared since the foreign buyers tax came in. Less than 2% of the buyers are foreign. Still people are buying and those would be locals. You do the math. Foreigners not buying, high end not selling, locals buying, low end selling. Which is driving the market? Those foreigners who are not buying the houses that are not selling or the locals who are buying multiple properties? Heck just look at the NDP candidates where 2/3 are RE speculators with multiple properties.

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2 years 2 months ago
realist
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I don’t dispute that for the past year the high end has cooled and the low end has not, for obvious reasons. I do question the argument (advanced by others) that the high end is irrelevant to the overall market. I wondered what were your views on that.

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2 years 2 months ago
Just me
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http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/oei-hearing-continues

Investor Sui Zhang on Friday added Richmond Conservative MP Alice Wong’s name to the list of B.C. politicians the panel has heard Oei mentioned to investors, a list that includes Premier Christy Clark.

Lawyers for the commission have alleged Oei raised money from Chinese investors for recycling plant company Cascade, but diverted $6.9 million of $13.3 million for his own uses, including donations and luxury car rentals.

Of course, Kruelty Clark is as clean as it gets. She would never encourage such behaviors, right?

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2 years 2 months ago
Oracle
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Vancouver real estate back on fire.

Trudeau has just given away 1.4 million and counting ten year visas to the Chinese.

Think about that for a moment. All their kids will want to go to school here. It’s game over for whatvwas once Vancouver.

50%+1 = big changes ahead.

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2 years 2 months ago
history
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non working, social progrsm parasites, immigrants and refugees … Save My Sawdust!

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2 years 2 months ago
Abdul Lahazi
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http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/i-wanted-to-kill-myself-chinese-investor-testifies-his-family-destroyed-in-alleged-b-c-immigration-investment-scam

I’ve been following this for awhile now and my initial takeaways are that Chinese are okay with skirting the law as long as it benefits them, but run to the law when they get screwed out of their money by someone else. It’s quite ironic that their own stolen money gets stolen by someone else.

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2 years 2 months ago
Best place on meth
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These are some quality immigrants we’ve been getting lately.

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2 years 2 months ago
Just me
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No! Don’t tell me? Mainlanders might be “bending” the rules slightly to their advantage? You are clearly a rabid racist and xenophobe.

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2 years 2 months ago
Doomcouver
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Is it just me or is anyone else getting the odd feeling that all it’s going to take is a spike in unemployment to start a 1907-style race riot in Vancouver? The racially charged flyers that have been circulating seem symptomatic of widespread resentment and anger towards wealthy immigrants. If you crank youth unemployment up to about double what it is now I believe that would be enough to start some pretty crazy riots. Politicians are to blame as they have done nearly nothing to ensure young people can afford to live here, yet have rolled out the red carpet to wave after wave of wealthy immigrants who do not work or pay taxes here. It’s basically a powder keg waiting to explode.

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2 years 2 months ago
ostritch
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Everywhere I go, where Chinese people are absent, the locals express just how much they dislike the Chinese. I think people are scared, angry and everything else you need for serious problems.I’m not talking just whites but Vietnamese, Philippinos, Hong Kongers, etc etc. Like famines, the type of social collapse you are describing, if it happens, is thanks to our politicians.

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2 years 2 months ago
Specuskeptic
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Toronto-based, but germane. http://ipolitics.ca/2017/04/21/finally-a-housing-policy-for-people-who-cant-afford-houses/

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2 years 2 months ago
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https://canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2017/04/government-committee-reports-on-mortgage-changes.html

Government Committee Reports on Mortgage Changes

Following weeks of consultations with mortgage experts, the government’s Standing Committee on Finance has issued five recommendations for Parliament.

1. Work with provincial governments to ensure stable, affordable regional housing markets.
2. Consider increased support for first-time homebuyers.
3. Use Statistics Canada to beef up housing data and allow for more informed policy decisions.
4. Put a moratorium on new mortgage regulations until the last set of policies can be assessed.
5. Ensure that mortgage regulations treat all mortgage lenders fairly.

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2 years 2 months ago
ostritch
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I laughed. I cried. I fell asleep on number 3.

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2 years 2 months ago