BC, Canada, data, Open Topic

Friday Free-for-all! April 21, 2017

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234 Comments

It’s the end of another glorious work-week in the ‘couve and that means it’s time for another fabulous Friday free-for-all!

This is our standard run-on-the-mill end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–Richmond Air BnB RIP
–Vancouver sees first price increase in 8 months
–Should first-timers rethink buying in a hot market?
–Canada shadow banking half the size of banks
–Ontario starts tracking residency for RE purchases
–Define ‘foreign buyer denier’
–Site C losses up to $1 billion?
–Who would benefit from a crash?
–44% like idea of 30% tax on foreign buyers
–

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments section below and have a superb weekend!

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[…] southseacompany, confidence in the Canadian housing market has reached a record […]

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southseacompany

“Cracks appear in Toronto’s housing market as alternative mortgage lender Home Capital drops”, National Post

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cracks-appear-in-torontos-housing-market-as-alternative-mortgage-lender-home-capital-drops

“The issues at Home Capital relate to an investigation into loans with faulty income information. The company cut ties with 45 brokers in 2015 after finding falsified borrower income information, the same flaw that sunk many subprime lenders in the U.S. during the housing crisis. The Ontario Securities Commission alleged Wednesday night that the company’s former officials didn’t satisfy disclosure requirements, made “materially misleading statements” and failed to comply with other securities rules.”

““I think a lot of this mortgage fraud in Canada has been covered up and you’re now starting to see tips of various icebergs hitting the boat,” Marc Cohodes, an investor who’s betting against Home Capital’s stock, said in a telephone interview.”

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southseacompany

We are on a ship of fools;

“Canadians’ Confidence In Housing Hits Record High”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/04/24/confidence-canada-housing-market_n_16209488.html

“The experts are getting louder in their warnings that a housing bubble has formed in some parts of Canada, but Canadians don’t seem worried.”

“In fact, confidence in the housing market hit a record high in the latest weekly Bloomberg-Nanos index — even as respondents turned negative on their own personal finances.”

“The survey found 48.5 per cent of Canadians expect house prices to rise in the next six months, the highest level recorded in the survey since 2008. Fewer than 11 per cent expect to see house prices decrease.”

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Bear Vancouverite

Vancouver SFH almost back to 2015 assessed value:

3371 Napier Street (looks like a teardown)
Now: $999,000
Early April: $1,095,000
Jan 19: $1,145,000

2015 Assessed: $951,900
2016 Assessed: $1,271,100

All comparables in the neighbourhood sold for $1.2-1.3M in mid 2016, but then started only selling for $1-1.1M towards end of 2016.

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paulb

New
328
Price Change
44
Sold
103
TI:8514

https://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul/

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Noracle

My well connected cousin knew the Trump tariffs were coming, listed all of his places.

By using my PHD in statistics and analyzing Zolo, I see that sales have already started declining from the spring bounce and inventory is building on the high end. Mid end and low end are leveling off already.

Whisperings from well connected locust swarms are showing that the elite are concerned about Vancouver’s proximity within North Korea’s missles range. Everything is going to go on sale soon.

My uncle who is having an affair with Janet Yellin told me the business cycle is over and it’s time to pay the piper.

Stay tuned.

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bullwhip29

HCG-TSX another new 52wk low today as mkts in general are rockin’ and rollin’. I wonder if Home Capital is the Canadian equivalent to Countrywide Financial? When this pie finally topples over onto the floor which lucky soul will step in to pickup the relatively intact, edible portions for pennies? and how much of the oozing disgusting mess that was splattered elsewhere will be force fed to the rest of us chumps? Shame on the regulators for totally botching this one up…

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Just me

This could have been written by Marc Cohodes himself. I am starting to doubt your identity.

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kabloona

Drowning in debt is the new normal in Canada http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/drowning-in-debt-is-the-new-normal-in-canada/ An expert in consumer insolvency describes what it’s like on the front lines of Canada’s worsening household debt crisis Scott Terrio April 23, 2017 The Canadian Press/Ryan Remiorz On any given day now you can expect to hear at least one economist, public official or financial commentator express grave concern about the mountain of debt Canadians now carry. The bloated debt loads of Canadian households has become a pervasive topic in media. But for all the attention the subject has received, it’s a safe bet that most people still cling to very clichéd notions that only so-called “deadbeats” ever hit the debt wall. Nothing could be further from the truth. The reality is Canadians would be shocked if they could peer into the private financial lives of many of their… Read more »

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bullwhip29

Mounties investigating serious crime in Richmond
http://vancouversun.com/news/crime/mounties-investigating-serious-crime-in-richmond

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bullwhip29

Victoria council votes for 15 per cent foreign buyers tax
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/victoria-council-votes-for-15-per-cent-foreign-buyers-tax-1.4082632

The successful vote, which passed five to three, means the city will ask the province to immediately impose the same 15 per cent tax to Victoria. The province will ultimately decide whether or not the tax will be implemented.

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YVR

The successful vote, which passed five to three, means the city will ask the province to immediately impose the same 15 per cent tax to Victoria. The province will ultimately decide whether or not the tax will be implemented.

Imagine if Horgan gets in and has to turn this down because he owns two houses in Victoria. He loves it just the way it is.

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Bear Vancouverite

Let’s not imagine, let’s prove you right by voting him in so we can see how he handles it. We already know what Christy Clark will do (try to prop things up).

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YVR

Actually Christy Clark owns a property in Vancouver and still brought in the foreign buyers tax to Vancouver. Lets see how Horgan reacts to this proposal for Victoria foregn buyers tax. I bet he is against it or at least dances around it unitl after the election. Note Chisty Clark only owns 1 half duplex where Horgan and most the the NDP own multiple properties.

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Oracle

How many properties your PR parents own???

And where did they get the money to buy???

Xi wants to know!!

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Best place on meth

One of the clowns who voted against:

“Victoria City Councillor Geoff Young voted against the tax, saying he is concerned about the way it targets foreigners.
“It brings back memories of the Chinese] head tax of many years which in some ways was a response to the economic concerns of people who were competing for jobs,” he said.”

Fortunately the mayor mocked him mercilessly for his idiotic race baiting.

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Bear Vancouverite

1) Anyone claiming a foreign buyer tax bringing back memories of the Head tax is just making excuses: almost nobody alive today was around when the tax was in place and if they are they probably aren’t much involved in civic politics.

2) The “Head tax” targeted people of a specific race. A foreign buyers tax is an equal opportunity tax: it taxes anyone who not a local resident, so it cannot be racist.

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KickThemOut

Busy weekend for me – Varsaki parade in Surrey and Sun Run. In both events, the amount of people offloading the generosity of others is unbelievable.

At the parade, people were basically scooping the free food into plastic bags they brought, go back to the car for new bags, and repeat the processes.

After the Sun Run, there were literally people with paper box / reusable bags to get the freebies that are handed out, despite the long line-ups, and people handing out the sample saying 1 per person.

I leave to you to figure out what group these people belong to. It just amazes me people can be so thick-skinned.

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bullwhip29

the folks supplying the food know what they are getting into and the sun run is far from being a free event as they entry fee is quite high and most of the crap given away is just promotional material. come back with a more applicable comment the next time the city dolls out some free salt…

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KickThemOut

And the people selling houses to foreigners also know what they get are getting into, same as homeless renters who refuse to buy. Yet it seems like the bears complaining and bitching exactly about this.

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best place on earth

the food givers at the festival were glad they gave out all the supplies they had brought in. the spirit of giving was felt warmly by all around.
the sun run promoters also were glad that they handed out more promotional materials. the faster the promotional materials went out, the sooner they could go home. what is the issue here?

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KickThemOut

Then why not give everything to the first person that shows up and call it a day? Geez…get a brain.

no wonder you people are losing to the immigrants who have to fight just for scraps to survive, never mind succeeding.

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best place on earth

then why doing any at all? just become an arm chair economist and whine about anything. If the immigrants come to Canada and be successful, kudos to them and to all level of governments.

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wrong

You don’t go to someone’s house, fill your pockets and bags with their food and then leave. It’s rude disgusting behavior.

Sikh community was hosting people in a joint celebration. They weren’t handing out supplies to parasites to take home and stick in the garage next to their free salt.

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Oracle

CKNW 980AM has turned on a dime.

Attacking NDP while giving Green lots of positive airtime. And at the same time, making Christy look invisible.

Vote Greens if you want Christy elected. Fortunately most people getting it now. Targeted shock and awe campaign by NDP to educate the Greens on not splitting the vote.

Cue the Liberal shill responses who are trying to decide Green supporters. Ugly people these deceivers. Right up there with the money launderers…wait..

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Shut It Down Already

People should vote for who they align most strongly with, not who they think has a chance of winning. Parties like the Greens will rarely, if ever, reach the highest office in a single election. They need to gain popularity over the course of many years, if not decades. Tactical voting might feel good in the short term, but if you’re a firm Green supporter then that’s really who you should vote for.

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Oracle

so says a HAM money laundering pumper who wants Christy back!

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Oracle

Don’t believe HAM deceivers.

Dont split the vote. Spread the word.

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Shut It Down Already

Is this your first election?

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bullwhip29

cknw = global = msm bought and paid for by RE cartel

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Combat roach

A good sample on what kind of “locals” are driving housing markets to insanity. They are also called smart investors, right?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/syndicated-mortages-1.4078124

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bullwhip29

none of this happens without the sheer greed and recklessness of both the fraudsters and all those eager roaches also looking to make a quick buck without spending two minutes to conduct even some basic due diligence.

just as it was with all the Eron Mortgage investors (not to mention various other RE scams over the years), the end result will be unpleasant for this group of wannabee sophisticated “investors” and probably less so for the perpetrators of this little scheme.

too bad, so sad folks…move along.

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southseacompany

“Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble: why ultra-low mortgage rates are dangerous”, The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/24/ultra-low-mortgage-rates-bubble-interest-house-prices

“Older generations complain of interest rates that reached 17%. But today’s record lows have contributed to house prices soaring out of reach of the young”

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southseacompany

“‘It will end in tears’: A drop in housing prices would hurt the loonie, says currency analyst”, BNN

https://www.bnn.ca/it-will-end-in-tears-a-drop-in-housing-prices-would-hurt-the-loonie-says-currency-analyst-1.732463

“Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive, told BNN in an interview, ““The two things that are certain in a housing bubble: When it starts to bust, it’s denial,” he added. “There will be denial. And there’ll be denial in prices and in the market. And the other thing that is certain is that it will end in tears. And where the losses are, and the shape of it, and the timing of it, is extremely difficult to predict.””

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bullwhip29

…and a strong loonie would drop housing prices (among other things…)

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patriotz

He doesn’t give any reason why falling house prices in themselves should result in a lower CAD. There is a historical correlation, but it’s because both oil and house prices go down during recessions and there’s a strong correlation between oil and the CAD.

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southseacompany

“Beware unintended consequences as governments meddle in real estate: Don Pittis”, CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-realestate-future-uncertainty-1.4079431

“The current round of tools to cool the Ontario market is only the latest in a cumulative series of changes by federal and provincial governments. Like shifts in interest rates, alterations in rules can take a long time to work their way into the market — especially a market as disparate as housing. There is some danger that as foreign buyers, first-time buyers, owners of vacant homes and domestic speculators find themselves nudged out, the housing market will cascade into a tailspin, revealing what so many critics have predicted: that the real estate market is a dangerous bubble in need of a serious correction of between 30 and 50 per cent.”

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bullwhip29

imho wynne did krusty a huge favour by announcing the considerably more verbose but less stringent version of the FBT and related conditions before may 9. – although not completely levelled, the playing field tilted back towards Vanc without krusty having to lift a finger – the move in ontario comes on the heels of actions taken in BC only months prior = feather in the cap in the eyes of some critics – ontario announced loopholes which BC will most likely adopt in the future (all while appearing to keep FBT in place) – when all is said and done and to the delight of the many thousands of Vanc homeowners, local RE prices will be at fresh new highs before summer is over. – once BC’s FBT rules are harmonized with those of ontario, i suspect victoria (where… Read more »

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southseacompany

“Why Canada’s politicians won’t do what it takes on the housing market”, Canadian Business

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/why-canadas-politicians-wont-do-what-it-takes-on-the-housing-market/

“Elected officials can see the fault lines in Canada’s housing market just as well as anyone else—but fixing them is too politically unpopular”

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YVR

Looks like the same old corrupt NDP. Run and controlled by the unions.

Steelworkers union paying salaries of senior NDP staff

One of the B.C. NDP’s largest donors is also directly paying for the salary of the New Democrats’ election campaign director, raising questions about its influence within a party….That means the Steelworkers hired Dewar, Sanford, and potentially others, as union employees on contracts, before immediately loaning them back to the NDP campaign to work the election while still being on the Steelworker payroll.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-election-2017-steelworkers-paying-the-salary-of-ndps-campaign-director

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Oracle

so says HAM that wants money laundering to continue.

Those values are not wanted in this country!

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Just me

May I point out that our own Premier was drawing, until a few months ago, an extra 50k salary paid to her by wealthy BC Libs donors? Is that preferable?
If you look at the party structure of the BC Libs, generous salaries can be paid thanks to their fundraising from corrupt Chinese millionaires, local developers and the like.
If the NDP miracolously managed to get elected they have already committed to eliminate union and non-union donations. As it stands, they need to compete with the corrupt BC Libs.

For what us worth I think that, in 2017, donations from steelworkers are way kess dangerous than donations from the RE lobby and Chinese millionaires (not to mention foreign goverments).

So far, not a pip about financing refirm from Kruelty Clark.

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YVR

The NDP operatives are paid directly by the union. They work for the union. They could be fired by the union. They answer to the union. Big difference between the party receiving donations and then deciding how to distribute the donations as salaries or what ever compared to people in the party employed by them. Kind of like a citizen paying taxes which pay a police officers salary compared to paying the police officer directly as a bribe.

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Best place on meth

How is it corrupt if it’s legal?

NDP is playing by Krusty’s rules, the rules she refuses to change in order to clean up the bribery.

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Just me

Lack of Chinese money taking its toll at the high end: ews from the UK.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-23/london-house-prices-post-biggest-annual-decline-in-eight-years

London House Prices Post Biggest Annual Decline in Eight Years.

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Oracle

England is going to cut immigration to the Canadian equivalent of 50,000. Canada at 300,000 with temporary floodgates also open.

So even if HAM buys in London, they can’t move there. Brexitt saved England.

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Combat roach

Canada would definitely need something, sooner or later, to curb the appetite of voracious swarm to save itself from total destruction.

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patriotz

It’s still the UK for now, not “England”. Anyway Brexit has nothing to do with immigration or foreign ownership from China because because China isn’t a member of the EU.

My prediction is that after London loses most of its financial industry the UK government (or perhaps England by then) is going to have to open the country up to the wealthy from China, Russia, and what have you just to keep the economy going.

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Just me

The high end of London housing is a foreigner playground already. You live in lalaland.

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Shut It Down Already

According to the ONS there were 600,000 immigrants to the UK year ending September 2016.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/feb2017

Where did you get that 50,000 number from? I’ve heard of some wanting to close the net (not the absolute) figure to 100,000, but your claim goes a long way further than that. Even if you adjusted for population size to reach your 50,000 figure given that the UK is roughly twice as but as Canada you’d still be wrong.

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patriotz

That 600K includes British citizens (no joke) and EU citizens who are not immigrants as we would understand it.

Immigrants as we would understand the term number 257K which would be comparable to 140K for Canada.

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Shut It Down Already

British citizens might never have stepped foot in the country previously given th me various ways with which citizenship can be acquired (many overseas territories), so it makes sense to include them.

I’m also not sure how you don’t think EU citizens are immigrants. It’s not as if the EU members are provinces – they’re countries. You might as well not count Mexican immigrants to Canada because of Nafta.

The number is 600,000.

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Oracle

Canada sold out.

Via half million foreign students and 2 million ten year visas and 300,000 Supervisas.

That’s all you need to know. And the taps are going to remain wide open until we have mini countries here in the lower mainland. Would definitely not want to be a Caucasian going forward. Or their daughters. Lol

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Oracle

YVR the HAM voting me down.

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Shut It Down Already

Everybody is voting you down.

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Just me

Canadian investors looking to LA, where celeb home prices rival inner-city Toronto’s
Some actors selling Hollywood homes for same price as family dwellings in coveted Toronto areas

http://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/los-angeles-celeb-homes-compare-toronto-1.4082052

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southseacompany

“Canada’s central banker happy with Ontario’s measures to cool housing market”, CTV

http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/canada-s-central-banker-happy-with-ontario-s-measures-to-cool-housing-market-1.3381101

Perhaps Poloz is happy because he believes the new measures won’t actually bring on any correction.

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Just me

“Perhaps Poloz is happy because he believes the new measures won’t actually bring on any correction.”

Different interests are coalescing around high RE prices. To break this unholy coalition we would need serious political disruption. Meaning, a set of politicians willing to take on the establishment supporting ever higher home prices.

Poloz is scared shitless of a housing crash. he will do whatever he can to prevent it during his mandate. The hot potato will then be passed to the next governor.

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patriotz

“Different interests are coalescing around high RE prices. ” Indeed they are, like this guy:

SUN: How about government stepping in to help cool the hot housing market?

Kevin O’Leary: “Anytime you meddle in any market there’s very bad unintended consequences. He’s going to learn the hard way. It will probably cost (Trudeau) the election if he collapses housing by 20 or 30 percent. (Finance Minister Bill) Morneau probably knows that too. They better tread very lightly on housing. The number one debt of Canadians, and the number one asset of Canadians, are their homes. If they mess with that, and make a mistake, the boot that will kick them out of government is so large it will probably scrape down a lot of houses down in Ottawa.”

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Just me

I never even contemplated the possibility of voting for that clown of O’Leary.
You don’t need to convince me about the fact that he would be a total disaster.
I really hope the Federal Conservatives can come up with someone much better.

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patriotz

At least O’Leary has made his position clear. All the other candidates for the Con leadership won’t say anything, which leads me to think they don’t really differ from him on this issue. You coould say the same about the candidates for the federal NDP leadership.

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Just me

Sad but true. They are all lining up to pander to the RE special interests.
Honestly, if a politician (of any party) at the Federal level came out with clear plan to eliminate government support of RE and tax exemptions, I would vote for them regardless of any other issues. I would basicaly accept most other things, as long as they seriously commit to drive prices down. Including serious curbs on mainland China inflows.

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Bestplaceonearth

Free stuff is good right? Are you for real?

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Combat roach

Get the hell outta here, shithead!

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Bestplaceonearth

Why? Cuz I pointed out the reality and you don’t like it?

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Just me

The reality in your fanciful little head. Go and sell a condo.

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Bestplaceonearth

Just made the rent for may. You?

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Shut It Down Already

It’s the only form of discussion he knows – shout down your opponent.

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LS in Arbutus

Saretsky is another local hero. Check out this graph of sales mix. It shows condos and SFH sales diverging. Overall you can blend it to make it look like an “OK” market, but SFH are down 10%, 33% of the sales mix vs 44% a year ago. Condos are up 10%, 53% of the sales mix vs 44% a year ago. Anyhow… look at the graph. Making up the rest are townhomes are pretty constant at 12%-.

Why would you buy a condo in this market? At this rate, prices will start to converge…

http://vancitycondoguide.com/the-composition-shift/

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Doomcouver

Joe Shmoe Vancouverite hasn’t figured out that the market is tanking and has a major case of FOMO. They’re jumping on the bottom of the property ladder in condos not realizing that the top of the ladder is on fire, with a can of gasoline ready to tip over on it. Motivated sellers in detached may start slashing asking prices further to compensate for poor sales volumes. Like Steve says though, time will tell…

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Just me

This sums it up nicely:

“Condos became the new prized possession. The sales composition began to shift, fewer and fewer detached sales were taking place. As foreign capital began to dry up, locals were unable to pick up the tab on a 1.8 Million dollar detached home.”

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Bestplaceonearth

Listingless realtor to be exact.

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Just me

The problem with economies addicted to real estate political favors.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/22/business/trump-tax-real-estate.html?_r=0

Trump’s Industry, Real Estate, Poses Hurdle to Tax Overhaul.

Many tax experts say a key element to any fundamental overhaul is getting rid of certain deductions for businesses — the “special-interest giveaways that are masked as tax breaks,” as House Republicans describe many of them in their own proposal. That is the only way tax rates for much of the country can go down without starving the Treasury, the experts say.

But there is a major roadblock to that fundamental change, and it comes from a sector well known to the president: the real estate industry.

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would-be buyer

So, if CC gets in again, I’m fucked. What are the odds of me being audited if I buy a place and declare that I’m living in it as a primary resident, but rent it out instead. I met with an mortgage broker w o basically skirted the issue and raised it with me and my husband that we could buy a property with “the intention of living in it within 1 year” to qualify as first time buyers. Otherwise, if we buy a revenue property we lose our first time buyer’s benefits. We are fucked because we earn north of $200K but most of our money is in investments which mean if we pull it we will pay capital gains. We have awesome income but no down payment. CMHC has fucked us to a limit of $1M property which… Read more »

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Just me

My (admittedly uninformed) guess is that many people are using Kruelty Clark’s interest free loans to buy investment properties. It would be absurd to explain the crazy condo market without a large share being investments.
Does the law explicitly forbid investment properties?

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bestplaceonearth

you are uninformed on a lot of thing. talk to a loan officer to see how this process works.

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Just me

Since you are so knowledgeabke and intelligent, enlighten me.
Can I commit fraud and go undetected? I want to understand how things wirk in Vancouver in 2017.

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Doomcouver

Lots of people commit fraud and go undetected. Some people commit fraud and get fined or go to prison. If you like your chances and don’t mind being a total scumbag, have at it. You’ll certainly be in good company in Vancouver, we’re full to the brim with fraudsters.

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Just me

Chances are they will not catch you. Enforcement is very lax.
But I would not do it for $5,000 savings on interest.

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Bestplaceonearth

Go talk to a loan officer at the bank. They won’t bite.

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bestplaceonearth

so what is it you are complaining about? you earn $200k and no saving for down payment; then obviously you have a problem of managing your own money. it’s always good to point the finger to someone else. now you contemplate to commit fraud!

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Just me

Have you read what she wrote? They have plenty of investments but they don’t want to liquidate and incur taxes.
Unlike RE, capital gains from normal investments are actually taxed. That is why we should start taxing RE capital gains and have a more fair system.

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Bestplaceonearth

So this person wants it all without spending her his own dime.

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Just me

No. She is just forced to consider alternatives because capital appreciation on housing is not taxed, but capital appreciation on other assets is.
Do you see the problem or are you really that dumb?

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Shut It Down Already

If the gains are taxed then the losses need to be deductible. Introducing such legislation at what may be the peak could be a mistake.

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Just me

Fair nough. But is this the leak? I doubt it.

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Bestplaceonearth

Why bears are so greedy. They wanna bake the cake, eat it, and still collect the money.
Principal shelters are not taxed, but investment shelters are taxed. Grade 1 should know it. By the way, if you’re so smart, why are you still writing checks to your landlord?
Why is it all the bears claim to earn top dollars, and landless always? Stop living in lala land.

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YVR

The first time home buyers loan will save you about $5000 in interest over the 5 years. Not much IMO to even worry about. If you intend to rent it out, it would be at a loss. You may have to choose writing off the loss on you taxes or the interest free loan. The tax savings on the loss with a $200K salary would be much greater than the $5000 over 5 years. If you are happy in your rental stick with that otherwise buy a place and move in.

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Shut It Down Already

You don’t have $120K in both of the TFSAs available to you? Why do all your investments come with capital gains liabilities? Or why not transfer into an RRSP and use the refund to cover your downpayment and CGT, whilst also utilizing the HBP? Something sounds amiss.

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