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Friday Free-for-all! April 28th 2017

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It’s the end of another lovely work-week in Vancouver-land!

And at the end of each week we have a tradition here at VCI, it’s Friday Free-for-all time. This is our news round-up and open topic discussion thread  for the weekend, here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

–House prices down, condos up
–The path to bubble panic
–Microsuites in bad hood only $1700
–Flip-Flopped
–Who’s lending money to HCG?
–Bad day for lenders
–Drowning in debt is the new normal

So what are you seeing out there in the streets and back alleys of Vancouver BC? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comment section below and have an excellent weekend!

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KickThemOut

Another Trump victory – North Korea Threatens China With “Grave Consequences” Over “Betrayal”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-03/north-korea-threatens-china-grave-consequences

Look for more “refugees” from China’s border provinces in the near future.

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Sebastien

11038 168 Street, Surrey
Oct 19:$1,588,000
May 2: $999,000
Change: – $589,000 -37%
Assessment: $1,252,000

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Oracle

Election internal polling is giving Christy Clark the victory. All due to the BC Conservative (sitting out) vote going to the Liberals and the Green party siphoning off votes from the NDP. Here’s what we can expect in the next 4 years: 1) Site C go ahead. It will be over budget because THEY can; they have a mandate for corruption. Debt will balloon. Consumers given a choice between higher BC Hydro rates or privatization. Privatization it is. 2) Liquor. Prices will continue to rise for liquor as the retail licence holders want more money now that they have a monopoly. And yes, these will be the guys that sell marihuana as well. 3) ICBC. Rates will continue to rise. This will limit congestion. Unfortunate that foreign students with deep pockets will become a greater share of the car population.… Read more »

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Sebastien

Fearmongering

When Obama was elected back in 2008, did you think that he was a secret Kenya-born Muslim that will impose Sharia all over the U.S.?

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KickThemOut

As demonstrated continuously throughout history, government is NEVER the answer to any problem. I don’t know why bears, of all people, don’t get this. The less government, the better society will be. Looks at all the government intrusion over the last 3 decades. Have things gotten better, once you take out technology advances? NO!

If half of the things on the list come to pass then it’s a win in my books, and every other freedom & democracy loving people’s books. Less government = better society. Simple as that.

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Sebastien

You voted / are voting BC Libertarian?

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southseacompany

“Don’t Call It Contagion, But Another Canadian Lender Just Got A Bailout”, Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/05/03/equitable-bank-credit-line_n_16407186.html

“The crisis at mortgage lender Home Capital is putting pressure on other Canadian lenders, who have seen their share prices drop, and — in some cases — depositors withdrawing their money.”

“That’s been the case with Equitable Bank, known online as EQ Bank, which on Wednesday announced it had secured a $2-billion line of credit, just in case, from Canada’s “big six” banks.”

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southseacompany

“Toronto Homeowners Scramble To Cash Out In April, New Listings Soar 33%”, Better Dwelling

https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-homeowners-scramble-cash-april-new-listings-soar-33/

“Sellers are suddenly looking to realize their windfall, as new listings reached a multi-year record. According to the latest numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), sellers are flooding the market, while the number of buyers are declining. Despite the increase in supply and lack of demand, buyer mentality has sent prices to a new all-time high.”

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Combat roach

Vancouver’s unlimited supply of “locals” would never let this to happen here, right?

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KickThemOut

Listing are still below multi-year average, buyers are still there in force. Just look at Garth’s latest post – http://www.greaterfool.ca

Stop trying to confuse people and present fake news to try to make yourself feel better.

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southseacompany

More Christybubble:

“Trading a rental for a $650,000 condo, with help from the B.C. government”, Metro News

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/05/02/buying-a-650000-condo-with-help-from-the-bc-government.html

“Mitchell and Johnson used the full amount available under the HOME loan program — $37,500 — and contributed a matching amount from their own money and some help from their parents, to make up a 11 per cent down payment.”

“Since Johnson, an environmental consultant, is working four days a week and studying for a master’s degree, the payments are “right at the edge of our affordability right now,” “

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bullwhip29

not that i was a big steve darling fan from the get go, but i now have zero respect for this total sellout disguised as a do gooder, model citizen

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Abdul Lahazi

They went from $1500/mo rent to $3000/mo mtg & strata payment (ignoring taxes etc.) in a 1980’s vintage building which will likely have special assessments levied. Yup, nothing could go wrong with this plan….

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Joe Condo

And of course… mortgage rates will never go up.

Who needs Lehman Brothers or Home Capital when you have Christy Clark?

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KickThemOut

So says the bears who have been saying the same thing for the last decade. How did all those other times worked out?

Oh wait, I forgot, it’s really different this time! It really is! We are so close to the 12th year and everyone knows that a broken clock is right twice a day!

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bullwhip29

Company linked to Malaysian LNG play in B.C. accused of building dams without permits
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/company-linked-to-malaysian-lng-play-in-b-c-accused-of-building-dams-without-permits

>>> all on krusty’s watch i am sure…

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bullwhip29

Canadian cities are turning into condo jungles
http://globalnews.ca/news/3423169/census-2016-canadian-cities-are-turning-into-condo-jungles/

“We have a way more abundant lifestyle because I’m not shovelling the walk, I’m not taking care of the yard.”

>>> all the little ways those that missed the boat rationalise the reality they now face…

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bullwhip29

RBC joins big banks in Equitable Group standby financing
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rbc-joins-big-banks-in-equitable-group-standby-financing/article34882743/

>>> nothing more than leaders of the drug cartel tossing some of their minions a lifeline. certainly does not give one a warm and fuzzy feeling. the additional delay from HCG only points to more trouble and desperation on the part of all concerned. had there been no material development over the course of the last couple of weeks then today would have been a go, one can only deduce from the change of action that some new development has indeed materialized, yet the powers that be think it’s both ok to not disclose it and also allow trading in the shares (which are worth zero) to continue.

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Dave

Very interesting stuff. I think the greater motive by the big banks is to preserve the valuation of the debt with the fear being all the debt gets revalued which hits their balance sheets. Look how fast six banks were able to come to an agreement to cough up $2 Billion. It takes longer for one of them to approve a simple mortgage. I think that shows how concerned they really are.

I think behind closed doors, each bank will tighten their lending. While they can agree to cooperate on broader market issues, they will of course act in their self interest. So it does have the potential to slow the real estate market.

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bullwhip29

it’s all about optics, only we have seen this all before. poloz/morneau likely met with bank ceo’s and directed them to take action (with the real backstop provided by ottawa thereby creating moral hazard) as it looks more like a vote of confidence this way. if problems subside, everyone continues on. if things escalate, then powers that be in ottawa turn up the heat. if it means taxpayers foot the bill to have 10’s of billions of dollars of garbage purged from bank balance sheets (again), then so be it.

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Dave

But ironically, that action doesn’t give me confidence, and I’m not sure the market will buy it either. The fact that six banks were able to act that quickly to cough up Billions speaks volumes. If you weren’t concerned about debt, wouldn’t you let it play out?

And yes, this smells like moral hazard and Ottawa intervention.

The banks are also in a competitive business after all. Shouldn’t you want your competition to fail? If I was a pizza shop and if the pizza shop across the street was about to go out of business, I wouldn’t be sending him a loan to bail him out.

As of today, I’m putting my money where my mouth is too as I’m short Canadian banks. That could change any minute but for now, that’s my take.

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KickThemOut

Not if people think after that pizza shop fails, you are next and stop going to your store as well.

Also, Apple was bailed out by MS back in the day too.

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Bestplaceonearth

From all the headlines , the “I told you so” came to mind.

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patriotz

‘Eye-watering prices’: Australia’s housing affordability crisis laid bare

Steve Keen, an economist and academic who has long pointed to rising mortgage credit from banks as the fundamental driver of high property prices, (and) others believe the federal government should banish the key incentives for making money simply by betting on the rising price of an existing house.

Phasing out negative gearing to stop investors writing off rental losses on multiple properties against their income, and tax discounts on capital gains, (economist Richard) Robinson says, are key to “deflating the bubble slowly before it goes pop”.

The Turnbull government has resisted calls for such moves, leaving in place what Robinson calls the world’s most “generous tax breaks for residential property”. “To me, that’s where all our savings have gone.”

World’s most generous? Maybe they haven’t heard about BC.

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Doomcouver

As has been mentioned before: many commentators, with good reason, are comparing Home Capital to New Century Financial. They’re both alternative lenders that have/had large balance sheets, targeted by banking regulators for massive fraud. In case anyone is not aware, New Century unwinding was one of the primary catalysts for the 2008 financial crisis in the United States. It seems likely Home Capital is the trigger that could bring our whole financial system to its knees. I’m going to live up to my doomer web-handle, but I will offer some fairly lengthy advice for anyone who will listen. For anyone you really care about, please warn them as well. There is still time to prepare, we may have months before the contagion starts to spread through the financial system. I can’t predict how bad it will get, but plan for… Read more »

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bullwhip29

LOL your armageddon scenario isn’t going to happen. if the SHTF for real then the following things will likely take place: – smaller alt lenders like HCG will be wound down in the dark of night – depositors will not lose their money – poloz and morneau will flood the system with more funny money; banks to get backdoor bailout 2.0 etc – credit will become difficult for the riff raff to obtain while rules for the cash rich will be relaxed – programs like krusty’s first time buyers loan will be expanded and extended – fbt will be rolled back – the cdn dollar will continue to freefall and only put cdn’s further behind the eight ball – movement of HAM into this market will accelerate for a variety of reasons – canada takes one or two more steps… Read more »

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Combat roach

How will HAM keep up with the uncertainty and unpredictability of being surrounded with “North Mexicans”?

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KickThemOut

I don’t know…but I know they wouldn’t be listening to self-righteous lazy ass armchair RE experts who’s been wrong for decade and counting, and wrong so badly that even if by miracle they are right, they are still priced out! Talk about irony 🙂

Priced out if you are right and priced out if you are wrong.

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southseacompany

“15% of Canada’s economy vulnerable to a housing slump, RBC says”, Global

http://globalnews.ca/news/3419800/canada-economy-housing-slump-rbc/

“Nearly 15 per cent of Canada’s economy is vulnerable to a housing slump, according to a new report by the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC).”

“If several housing markets across the country were to see a 30 per cent decrease in home sales — a scenario similar to what recently happened in Vancouver after the introduction of a foreign homebuyers’ tax — Canada’s GDP could shrink by one per cent to two per cent, RBC noted.”

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southseacompany

“Mortgage lender woes may cool Canada housing market, finally”, Reuters

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN17Y2G7-OCATP

“he funding crisis at mortgage lender Home Capital may spark a welcome cooling in Canada’s housing market and take pressure off policymakers confounded by the hot market – as long as the crisis does not turn into contagion, analysts said on Tuesday.”

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Best place on meth

The Vancouver Housing Bubble Is Back, And It’s (Almost) Bigger Than Ever

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-02/vancouver-housing-bubble-back-and-its-almost-bigger-ever

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bullwhip29

SCMP: China now links graft suspects to investor migration, but alarms have been ringing in Canada for years
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/2092538/china-now-links-fugitives-investor-migration-alarms

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bullwhip29

No apology from Clark as BC Liberals throw in the #IamLinda towel
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-liberals-take-back-claim-woman-was-ndp-plant-in-iamlinda-debacle/article34882222

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bullwhip29

Neighbours worried aquifer flood hurting home prices on exclusive Vancouver street
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/neighbours-worried-aquifer-flood-hurting-home-prices

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Abdul Lahazi

“Cynthia Chen, who lives several doors north of the Beechwood property flood site, said safety risks — and the need for evacuation alerts — were somewhat reduced, because the majority of pricey mansions on the block appeared to be left vacant by owners in the first place.” This statement just says it all about how fuked up Vancouver housing is. LOL !!!

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Best place on meth

NDP back in the lead.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-2017-poll-tracker-1.4054593

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Spec

OK, but the fact that it is even close boggles my fucking mind. Anything short of torches and pitchforks out on the streets is complacency….or stupidity.

Specu – pro pitchfork, pro torch.

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Best place on meth

Voter turnout among greedy boomers protecting their equity will be 100%.

Millenials will be out getting tattoos May 9.

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Fomo

Sad but true. At my early voting station …. all boomers.

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KickThemOut

hahaha…yeap, lazy ass bears staying at home on election day and then bitch and complain about others exercising their democratic rights….

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BubbleTea

“The government is selling B.C. as a tax haven for the global elite to park investment here, but not have to contribute.”
According to ministry figures, though, fewer than 300 have been created as a result of the program, and possibly as few as 122.
Way to go Krusty. You stink!

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Combat roach

Lol… “the global elite” it’s fucking scumbags and red-rednecks.

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Best place on meth

Of course, who else would this BC Lib scam cater to, they just need 4 more years and we will be completely sold out to the commies and they’ll retire with offshore accounts stuffed full by politburo members. “Provincial officials have praised the tax breaks as a boon to economic ties between China and British Columbia, and have devoted significant time and political capital in recent years to tailoring it to Chinese investors and the financial institutions that cater to them. In 2014, the province expanded the program for foreign banks, which it said would raise the potential for investment from Asia, especially China. “These amendments to the International Business Activity Act send a strong message to foreign companies that B.C. welcomes their business, setting the stage for increased investment,” said Michael de Jong, the finance minister, according to a… Read more »

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paulb

New
286
Price Change
38
Sold
135

TI: 8577

https://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul/

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bullwhip29

it’s nice to see that the city is busy focusing on hard hitting issues that matter versus dealing with riff-raff like the Feng Lin Lui’s of the world…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/slidey-slides-park-a-victory-for-vancouver-s-smallest-citizens-1.4095844

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/vancouver-scraps-criticized-8k-logo-just-10-weeks-after-rollout-1.3395173

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southseacompany

Christybubble?

“Greater Vancouver condo prices surge, but sales slow down”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/greater-vancouver-condo-prices-surge/article34877701/

“Industry experts say the B.C. government’s subsidy program for first-time home buyers, introduced in mid-January, has contributed to the run-up in entry-level property prices over the past three months.”

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Abdul Lahazi

Absolutely caused by the Libs. free money handout. The craziest thing I’ve ever seen in this province.

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Doomcouver

Yeah this makes it very obvious that either the Liberals have no concept of how asset prices work, or they wanted to see entry level homes become more expensive. Either way it’s really bad.

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bullwhip29

Home Capital pushes back Q1 earnings, shareholders meeting
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/home-capital-pushes-back-q1-earnings-shareholders-meeting

>>> simply more shenanigans and stalling to screw the shorts…

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Simple Solution

are you suggesting something has changed in the 2 weeks since this:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/chair-of-embattled-home-capital-confident-about-company-future/article34771194/

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KickThemOut

Undercover VCI Blogger / poster appearing on BNN? Best Place on Meth real identity revealed?

Vancouver homebuyers shift to condos in droves in April

http://www.bnn.ca/video/vancouver-homebuyers-shift-to-condos-in-droves-in-april~1113943

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