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Have we seen this movie before? Canada surpasses US bubble peak

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Even outside of ridiculous vancouver, this nation is real estate crazy. In many key metrics Canada has surpassed the US housing bubble at its peak.

As David Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff told BNN Thursday, “This bubble is on par with what we had in the States back in ’05, ’06, ’07. We have to actually take a look at the situation. The housing market here is in a classic price bubble. If you don’t acknowledge that, you have your head in the sand.”

Read the full article over at Macleans.

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fomostyle
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-10/canadian-housing-starts-explode-9-year-highs-renter-nation-spreads

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fomostyle
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“It seems clear that lack of affordability after Chinese economically irrational bids for Canadian homes has sparked an apparent demand for renting and this is the capital misallocation result.”

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Shut It Down Already
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How is it clear from the info they presented? The conclusions do not follow from the article. More ZH nonsense.

Perhaps builders are building condos because the government is lending money to greedy locals who want to buy now or be priced out forever? The low end of the market is on fire right now. That doesn’t fit the China narrative even if the stats supported it (which they don’t).

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bullwhip29
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speculators have set their sights on the older fixer upper t/h or apt (not to mention any old property that could get rezoned) to either flip or purchase as part of a potential “assembly” type situation. when there are no houses left to buy or tear down, this is simply the next best thing…

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Combat roach
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Nearly 2 in 3 homeowners won’t sell because of how much it costs to buy again: CIBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cibc-housing-survery-1.4063470

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CBM999
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Interestingly it says that a lot of millennials regret their home purchases.

I guess they would tell a survey what they would never tell me in person. Whenever I talk to friends a relatives they are constantly rubbing in my face how their house in the worst part of Surrey is now worth $750,000.

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history
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Buyers remorse and potential buyers remorse.
Sellers remorse and potential sellers remorse.

Remorse is showing up on both sides, if you look at the low inventory and sales.

Refi remorse and potential refi remorse is hidden, and not talked about.

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5 months 11 days ago
bullwhip29
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US housing bubble largely caused by giving away free money to those that could never ever pay it back and watching them walk away from mortgages the very moment the SHTF. while much of the same is probably happening in Cda now, there is one distinct and significant difference with respect to how this frankenstein of a market was created and that is the addition of unprecedented levels of HAM. the end result for many overleveraged homeowners will be a repeat of what occurred in the US, however, i believe HAM will not only stay put but increase its presence here as things continue to unfold. fast forwarding a number of years you will see a RE market with only rich and uber rich participants while the rest of us are left with scraps on the outskirts to either rent… Read more »
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squeak
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Sad state of affairs indeed. I am quite surprised (but yet not when it comes to Canada..) that in 2017 and the decade before the elected governments in Canada has turned a blind eye to this very serious problem and completely ignored how this has affected its very own people, the true born Canadians with true Canadian values. We are now in a CRISIS situation, and still some politicians (you know who) are still smiling, photo ops and cutie cutie. If I was a leader in Canada now, I would wipe that smirk of my face real fast, frankly there is nothing to smile about, nothing. And they let this happen. What does it take for Canadians to get mad as hell and at least show this through a measly vote? It is time to get real, call the spade… Read more »
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patriotz
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The 70% of the population who already own, or most of them anyway, don’t think it’s a problem. That’s the problem. 🙂

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bullwhip29
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what % of these can afford a serious body blow let alone have suitcases full of funny money to double, triple and quadruple down as HAM would surely do in time of crisis?

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Shut It Down Already
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Shut It Down Already
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People who take the oath of citizenship are legally as Canadian as anybody born in Canada.

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squeak
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squeak
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Join the discussionLegally yes. But I think it takes much more to become a part of the back bone of a nation than just a scribble on a piece of paper.

Commitment
Loyalty
Values
Transparency

Just to name a few qualities that are needed to make a strong and united country.

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Shut It Down Already
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Another racist steps forward!

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history
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Already is correct to dispute the general whitewash that it’s the Chinese who’ve caused the problem. It’s the availability of financing that’s driven the RE market to it’s peak. What i’m more concerned with is the focused purchasing, vis-a-vis, the capture of the margin, houses over $3M, which seems unusual and politically motivated., at least in Vancouver. It has occured to me that RE at the fringes has been weaponized.

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Combat roach
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Admin, these “racist” insults should eventually stop, they don’t make any sense but to hurt and irritate the audience. No forum should let a bully to unreasonably call people names as he sees fit, shame.

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Best place on meth
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All of our finest newcomers take their solemn oath of Canadian citizenship very seriously.

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/americas/article/1932754/chinese-teenager-fast-vancouver-police-furious-wrecked-mercedes

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Proud Chinese-Vancouverite
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Metro Vancouver is Asian majority now or soon will be. Your people sold it out from under you. Not our fault we legally bought the best properties and that laws allowed many of our brothers to come so we have more people. Get over it or move away. Expect more changes ahead culturally speaking.

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Proud Chinese-Vancouverite
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Going forward, we fully expect 100,000 more of our kids from China to come here every year to get an education in OUR city. We will keep voting Liberal as they have been very generous to us.

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Best place on meth
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Thanks for the tip, Oracle.

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Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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….or newcomer.

It’s hard to keep track of which liars and hypocrites are sock-puppeting the blog these days.

Remember kids, just be yourselves ok?

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specuskeptic
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Mos def Boracle on that one. Such a beauty “we fully expect 100,000 more of our kids from China to come here every year to get an education in OUR city”
Hi-larious…

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Combat roach
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Oracle, boracle, shmoracle… but he is right here, and we all know it.

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bullwhip29
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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/19/garden/inside-the-homes-of-mexicos-alleged-drug-lords.html

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bullwhip29
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http://www.infrastructuremexico.com/2016/04/27/the-pathway-to-quito-and-the-global-urban-crisis/

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ostritch
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I agree totally with you. And it’s happening in every major hot city. The 640 Billion Dollar Question is what happens to real estate here when China hits the credit wall? I used to think they’ll swamp out; now I’m thinking more funds swamp in.

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bullwhip29
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Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne says her government will introduce a package of housing affordability measures “very soon”…
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/housing-affordability-measures-coming-very-soon-wynne-says/article34651752/

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Just me
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Hopefully not more help-to-buy programs, that make the situation worse.
Christy Clark has shown how effective these programs are in raising prices!

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patriotz
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“Very soon” means after the BC election, when she’s had a chance to see if the voters really want effective measures to control prices, and to see if the NDP’s measures, if the party is elected, will moderate prices without causing a bust.

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southseacompany
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southseacompany
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‘Affordability measures’? Sounds ambiguous. No mention of controlling or lowering prices.

‘Affordability measures’ could mean a BC style teaser loan.

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patriotz
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It could, but remember that Wynne is very close to the federal Liberals, who are concerned about the bubble in Toronto, and not nearly as close to the RE industry as Christy.

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Bear Vancouverite
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Governments at all 3 levels keep saying “affordable” only to mean “getting you in at any cost”. The only true affordability is a substantial decrease in housing costs.

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history
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Simply putting the brakes to Refi’s is enough to drop prices. The Feds have done this, but the mainstream media hasnt the balls to enlighten us. It takes scouring the blogs to figure This out. The refi business needs to be crushed to bring back affordability. Landlords will realize they must generate rental revenue to manage their RE asset. Many are currently not up to the task, another item that is hidden from the mainstream press RE narrative.

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KickThemOut
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Lack of university space for locals? Lack of funding? No problem! Local university got the perfect solution!

Some B.C. universities leasing spaces on their campuses to private Chinese high schools to boost revenue
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/national/some+universities+looking+lease+private+chinese+high+schools/13291158/story.html

Not to worry, cuz they eventual plan to “expand” to local Canadians as well, as long as you got lots of $$$ to spare.

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/dev/null
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So, what’s this all about? Just curious.

R2145287
Listed: $3,879,000
Sold: $2,579,000
Days on Market: 32
“This home has found its match. Restructuring of price reflects buyers desire to purchase and pay separately for build. $2.579 for property as is and agreement for Arix developments to build beautiful new home for $1.3 plus gst is under contract. Sorry this one is gone…”

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patriotz
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If the build is unbundled from the property PTT is payable only on the latter. Look at the hilarious graphic for this, looks like a low budget kids’ cartoon.

https://www.remax.ca/bc/vancouver-real-estate/na-3475-ash-street-na-wp_id167672187-lst/

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Abdul Lahazi
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I like all the young kids around the outside of the house; as if anyone can afford to raise a family there.

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fomostyle
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There are some kids in that hood. Not many but some due to renters squished in.

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Bear Vancouverite
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This is the type of listing I’ve mentioned before, it seems some developers have some cold feet and want to sell prepackaged development opportunities rather than taking the risk of building the homes and selling them potentially at a loss in the future if things continue going downhill. I see more of these types of listings in the past 6 months than in the past few years.

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YVR
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Exactly. The builder bought the lot with the intention of building. Now no builder is willing to build without a purchaser. Tells a lot about the market and how builders see it going forward.

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history
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Builders have done the math, unlike the greedy high school dropout mortgage broker who is more concerned with making a deal (maintain their velocity of deals in order to capture skim).

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paulb
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New
261
Price Change
58
Sold
172

TI:8203

https://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul/

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Sebastien
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Despite several days of surplus new listings, the TI doesn’t move too much. Are we seeing the creation of a shadow inventory?

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Best place on meth
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There can’t be inventory growth with a sell/list ration in the 70’s, which is where it’s been for the last 2 months.

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specuskeptic
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Seems to be seized up. Seller won’t sell unless they have somewhere to go/buy. Few will want to sell, then rent.
It’s like one of those tile games where all the pieces are frozen and you can’t move them into their slots.
Any economists out there want to ID the phenomenon?

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Combat roach
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Funny place is BC…

B.C. Green Party Leader Is More Popular Than Christy Clark: Poll

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/04/10/andrew-weaver-christy-clark-poll-bc-election_n_15924348.html

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bullwhip29
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even funnier (or not) is how the green party’s emergence as a bonifide alternative may mean another 4 years of the same ol’ bull$hit…

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Combat roach
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Right, that is classic. The waste of votes for scum to succeed, the Trojan horse.

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Oracle
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It’s quite obvious.

I’m spreading this so the naive are aware. Post as much on all social media sites as you can. I am.

Plus signs in the 10 ridings that the Green vote split.

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patriotz
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It’s not peculiar to BC, federal Green leader Elizabeth May has always had high popularity compared to major party leaders as well.

It’s easy to be personally popular as leader when your party has never been in power and has no prospects of it in the foreseeable future, because nobody is PO’d at what your party has done or might do.

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Oracle
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You know it’s all bullshit.

They are given MSM time because they ARE Liberals in Green clothing.

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Simple Solution
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I wonder how many people truly understand how debt works…
https://twitter.com/sobata416/status/851601957886324736

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Just me
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I wonder how many people understand who you are?

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Best place on meth
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Best place on meth
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Newcomer, please fuck off like you promised.

“To participate in this blog while you are participating is to promote hatred of an identifiable group, and I will not do that anymore.”

Yeah right, as if reading the blog and voting on posts isn’t “participating in this blog”.

You fucking liar and hypocrite, this is the exact same behaviour you slammed Oracle for.

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5 months 11 days ago
Shut It Down Already
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You’re pathetic.

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5 months 11 days ago
Combat roach
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WTF! Look who’s talking, unbelievable shit.

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5 months 11 days ago
Bear Vancouverite
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Lately we’ve sen a lot of attack ads from the NDP, I found these more uplifting ones that I think do a good job of helping people see more of John Horgan and some of the good messaging that I think will resonate well with voters:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nc-qxddolJQ

I like the style of this one, I saw this today on TV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBGCkCcYVlU

“To me, a strong economy is where we’re all doing better. Where government invests in education and healthcare, and families can afford to build a future here…. The people at the top have had their premier, it’s time you had one that works for you”.

So I know I’m the one who commented that John Horgan doesn’t come across as charismatic but I think he’s doing a good job here.

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5 months 11 days ago
YVR
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All the stuff Horgan is promising to make things more affordable is just a shell game. Someone has to pay for these promises. Cutting bridge tolls, MSP premiums, etc. just means people who work and pay income taxes will cover these costs for those who do not pay income taxes. I especially like the freezing hydro rates. Those people who own those 8000 square foot houses in West Van will love that. Too bad the poor guy living in the basement suite is the one who pays for it with his income taxes subsidising BC Hydro. Still no mention of how the NDP are going to make housing more affordable. The one promise they could make that working tax payers would not have to pay for.

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5 months 11 days ago
Combat roach
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Just tax the shit out of all those motherfuckers that laundered, sheltered, flipped and abused and things will start to get sorted out. Scum isn’t quite immune when it gets hit in the pocket.

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5 months 11 days ago
Just me
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Yes. You are right. Start taxing home equity like the rest of jurisdictions on North America. We have lower property taxes than Hawaii.
Voting for Christy Ckark is voting for ever higher house prices and worse standards of living. She likes offshore investirs more than she likes you.

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5 months 11 days ago
Oracle
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Gonna have to buy if Christy wins.

Prices will only go up. If they crash, leave the country. Leave the gov holding the bag.

Buy with minimum down as possible. Come back after 7 yrs of crash.

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5 months 11 days ago
Oracle
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So says a Libtard shill.

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5 months 11 days ago
YVR
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John Horgan today:

“Three simple commitments: lower costs, better services and good jobs for the future,” Horgan told a packed banquet hall.

No mention on housing in his three commitments. But he did come up with this beauty:

When challenged on how the NDP would pay for any expansion at the Delta-Richmond crossing, Horgan said it would be paid for like any other capital project.

“You amortize that over a longer period of time.”

LOL. He must have been a mortgage broker in another life.
http://www.ladysmithchronicle.com/news/john-horgan-promises-no-tolls-and-better-jobs-at-ndp-campaign-kickoff/

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5 months 11 days ago
Just me
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In other news, Christy Clark says: we will defend the hard won equity of home owners…..

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5 months 11 days ago
Oracle
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You try to think your smarter than everyone here you House pumping Christy humping troll.

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5 months 11 days ago
fomostyle
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https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/millennial-bc-buyer-im-sick-of-living-in-a-basement/article34637420/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&campaign_id=A100

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5 months 11 days ago
Sebastien
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Burnaby again:
4737 Watling Street, Burnaby
Jan 14:$1,868,000
Apr 10: $1,499,999
Change: – 368,001 -20%

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5 months 11 days ago
Oracle
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Admin, Can you ban this troll?

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5 months 11 days ago
Funkeymonkey
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I like this info. It actually talks to real-estate and not paranoid delusions.

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5 months 11 days ago
specuskeptic
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“Admin, Can you ban this troll?” You’ve been banned. You first, fuckface.

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5 months 10 days ago
Burnaby
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I drove past this place today because it was off the MLS so I thought maybe it was sold. But the sign is still up so I think it was pulled off MLS to re-list again. They paid $696,000 in July 2010.

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Burnaby
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Assessed at $1,712,400

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5 months 11 days ago
Sebastien
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Following last week’s conversation about Richmond:

7 6033 Williams Road, Richmond
Mar 15:$1,288,000
Apr 10: $990,000
Change: – 298,000 -23%

5-8771 Cook Road, Richmond
Nov 27:$638,000
Apr 10: $518,000
Change: – 120,000 -19%

8395 Ruskin Place, Richmond
Oct 20:$2,198,000
Apr 10: $1,898,000
Change: – 300,000 -14%

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5 months 11 days ago
Oracle
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Oh please. We all know this is a scam that involves foreign $$ exchange and lower FBT and PTT taxes.

At least here the people know about your BS. But you may deceive the unwashed on other sites.

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5 months 11 days ago
Shut It Down Already
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You’ve still not explained why s many parties to a sale would willfully commit fraud to save the buyer – and only the buyer – a few bucks. Why would they all take such a risk?

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5 months 11 days ago
Funkeymonkey
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Your nuts! also you don’t own anything and probably cant.

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5 months 11 days ago
Bear Vancouverite
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Thanks for posting these Sebastien, if you don’t mind including 2016 assessed values I feel that adds some valuable context.

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5 months 10 days ago
Just me
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Is the truth starting to surface in public debate?

The Only Solution to Britain’s Housing Crisis May Be a Crash

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-10/the-only-solution-to-britain-s-housing-crisis-may-be-a-crash

Increasing supply may be of limited help: academic paper. Average U.K. house prices are almost eight times incomes. The solution to the U.K.’s housing woes may not be pretty.

Staggeringly high prices, which are preventing many Britons from buying a home, may only be corrected by a market crash, according to economists from the University of Reading. While many say boosting the supply of property for sale would help with affordability, the academics say the effect would be very limited, because the amount of building needed just isn’t feasible.

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5 months 11 days ago
bullwhip29
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BIV: Transparency advocates raise alarm over anonymous ownership
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/4/transparency-advocates-raise-alarm-over-anonymous-/

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5 months 11 days ago
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Here is why people do it: “Most commercial real estate and people with a bit of brains or sophistication will often hold just any property, real property, whether it’s residential or commercial, in a corporation,” Fernandes said in a phone interview. “There’s only a transfer tax if there’s a change in title ownership, so if you sell your corporation, you do not have a transfer tax because the property’s not being transferred – it’s the same owner.” The provincial government, for its part, made changes last June to track registrations of bare trusts and is “monitoring the data closely,” Ministry of Finance spokesman Jamie Edwardson said in an emailed statement. The Provincial government is monitoring the situation? This is tax evasion of epic proportions.The government is losing in the tens of millions in taxes. But not to worry….the BC Libs… Read more »
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5 months 11 days ago
bullwhip29
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Massey tunnel replacement project off to a rocky start
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/4/massey-tunnel-replacement-project-rocky-start/

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5 months 11 days ago
southseacompany
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“Vancouver housing starts hit highest level in decades in March: CMHC”, Business in Vancouver

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/4/vancouver-housing-starts-hit-highest-level-decades/

“The number of multi-family dwellings jumped from 1,895 units in March 2016 to 2,044 units in the same month this year”

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5 months 11 days ago
southseacompany
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“Canadians are delaying home buying on the hope that prices will fall: poll”, Global

http://globalnews.ca/news/3368241/canadian-home-prices/

“the annual RBC Home Ownership Poll, which was released Monday showed that only a quarter of Canadians plan on buying a home in the next two years, down from nearly 30 per cent in 2016.”

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5 months 11 days ago
bullwhip29
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stated in a less cryptic manner, the % of average Cdns that can afford a home continues to drop

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5 months 11 days ago
patriotz
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“only a quarter of Canadians plan on buying a home in the next two years, down from nearly 30 per cent in 2016”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/2016-was-a-record-setting-year-for-canadas-housing-market/article33640396/

“Nationally, a record 536,118 residential properties changed hands last year (2016) on the multiple listing service, a 6.3-per-cent increase from 2015.”

Given there are about 28 million adult Canadians, about 2% of them bought in 2016. Clearly the results of the poll are meaningless.

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5 months 11 days ago
patriotz
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I forgot to take into account that many sales are to 2 people jointly. Still, that’s less than 4% of adult Canadians, far below the “plans” reported by the poll.

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5 months 11 days ago
bullwhip29
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Last gas station in downtown Vancouver put up for sale
http://globalnews.ca/news/3370576/last-gas-station-in-downtown-vancouver-put-up-for-sale/

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5 months 11 days ago
southseacompany
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“‘Full-blown housing bubble’: Economist alarmed by view of never-ending price gains”, BNN

https://www.bnn.ca/full-blown-housing-bubble-economist-alarmed-by-view-of-never-ending-price-gains-1.720189

“Despite lofty valuations in the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets, 54 per cent of respondents to the CIBC poll say housing prices will rise indefinitely, while only 40 per cent think prices will decline over the course of the next five years.”

“David Madani, senior Canadian economist at Capital Economics, thinks the unbridled optimism is just one more sign the Toronto housing market is in bubble territory.”

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5 months 11 days ago
Ulsterman
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As insane as this mode of thought is, it isn’t that surprising. When prices have risen for almost 17 years, it’s easy to see why someone without little interest in economics would assume that this is the new norm.

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5 months 10 days ago
southseacompany
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“Canada’s Housing Bubble Can Be Traced to Carney”, Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-11/canada-s-housing-bubble-can-be-traced-to-carney

“But let’s be clear, this mistake happened because Carney had a bias toward easier policy. He was in no hurry to hike, even when it became apparent that Canada had escaped the worst of the crisis. What Group of 10 economies need are central bankers with a bias toward tighter policy. We now know what happens when you leave interest rates too low. Entire civilizations are ripped apart.”

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5 months 11 days ago
Abdul Lahazi
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In 2009 no one dreamed we would have to endure ZIRP for a decade or longer. It may already be too late to fix the damage that malinvestment through low interest rates has caused. Low interest rates are the lazy man’s approach to “fix” an economy.

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5 months 11 days ago
southseacompany
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“Low interest rates are the lazy man’s approach to “fix” an economy.”

Good definition.

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5 months 11 days ago
ostritch
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I love it when dead people are blamed.

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5 months 11 days ago
southseacompany
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“Fed’s Yellen aims to let ‘healthy’ US economy coast along”, CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/yellen-says-feds-independence-under-threat-from-congress.html

“The Federal Reserve’s plans to raise U.S. interest rates gradually are aimed at sustaining full employment and near-2-percent inflation without letting the economy overheat, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Monday.”

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5 months 11 days ago
Combat roach
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The Bard of the Yukon, Robert W. Service, once wrote, “a promise made is a debt unpaid.” If that’s true, then the BC Liberals owe the province a trillion dollars – plus or minus a few billion.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/fact-check-promises-promises-last-election-s-epic-fail-1.4065027

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5 months 11 days ago
Abdul Lahazi
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I never believed that LNG nonsense. It made no sense.

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5 months 11 days ago
Combat roach
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The utmost productivity of a Canadian preferred ally.

A human rights group has estimated that China executed around 2,000 people in 2016, outpacing the 1,032 executions of all other countries combined.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017/04/11/executions-in-china-said-to-outpace-world-total-despite-decline.html

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5 months 11 days ago
Abdul Lahazi
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All good for the organ harvesting business though…

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5 months 11 days ago
wpDiscuz