Canada, debt, economy, equity, mortgage

Home Capital Plunges 41%

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You’d think that lending out money for real estate in Canada would be a no-lose deal, but Home Capital Groups shares collapsed 41% at open today:

The embattled lender announced early Wednesday Home Trust has a non-binding agreement in principle with an unnamed institutional investor for a $2-billion line of credit to be secured against mortgages. The agreement is expected to be finalized later in the day. Home Trust will have to pay the investor $100 million to tap the line of credit and interest will be charged at 10 per cent on outstanding balances.

Read the full article at BNN.

 

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realist
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An updated question from the previous thread (thanks to reminder from Zero Hedge):

Will the timeline to generalized distress follow the interval of many months, as in the case of the collapse of the US’s New Century Financial (March, 2007) & UK’s Northern Rock Building Society (September, 2007), or the much shorter interval of the collapse of Countrywide Financial (June, 2008)?

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history
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This time it’s different. We know that RE went straight back up in USA snd UK after CBs brought Currency Reserves forward. Today many global speculator nutcases are anticipating What the BoC will monitize, and how. Fully expecting Poloz to pull the Polar bear outta his ass. Could be gold, in many respects our counrty has a lock on it.

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patriotz
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It would be nice to know which mortgages. They have two portfolios – CMHC insured at standard (i.e. low rates), and non-qualifying at high rates. I would guess the latter, since CMHC-insured mortgages as collateral should get them a much lower rate.

In other news:

http://www.bnn.ca/o-leary-withdraws-from-conservative-leadership-race-1.735352

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YVR
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“They have two portfolios – CMHC insured at standard (i.e. low rates), and non-qualifying at high rates. ”

A large portion of those CMHC insured mortgages were done fraudulently. That was the HCG game. Approve people who couldn’t get a mortgage anywhere else with a little help from the mortgage brokers (false employment records, etc.). It will be interesting to see if CMHC revokes the insurance on these as it all flushes out. If that happens all of a sudden a CMHC insured mortgage on a lenders books is not so rock solid. More down side industry wide coming IMO.

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history
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Refi is a game, I concur. High School flunkies infest these Boiler Shop mortgage brokers. They’ve had a helluva run. My next business is building debtors prisons, and putting these asholes in charge of cleaning outhouses.

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Abdul Lahazi
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Bank stocks in general will be affected by this. TD RY BNS are all down in later day trading.

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bullwhip29
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also names like genworth MIC-TSX

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Dave
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If you want to short Canadian banks, consider ticket symbol HFD. In my opinion, if you’re going to short something a good way to do it is through an ETF that covers an entire sector, such as this. Note that it’s levered.

I’m looking at it now to see if I want a position. If you look at the technicals on RBC and CIBC, it doesn’t look good.

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bullwhip29
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slaughterfest carrying over into other names like FN and EQB as clients accelerate withdrawals from savings accounts. surely action from regulators must be (?) imminent as things appear to be spiralling wildly out of control. meanwhile the boys in Ottawa likely firing up the printing presses as we speak and carefully planning the next back door bailout

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bullwhip29
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slaughterfest carrying over into other names like FN and EQB as clients accelerate withdrawals from savings accounts. surely action from regulators must be (?) imminent as things appear to be spiralling wildly out of control. meanwhile the boys in Ottawa likely firing up the printing presses as we speak and carefully planning the next back door bailout

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bullwhip29
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imho HCG doesn’t survive past this wknd. Regulators will step in and assume control. this is basically a Bears sterns/ countrywide like moment all over again. Failure by the powers that be in Ottawa to backstop this asap will lead to further contagion within the industry and could cause a massive wildfire across cda’s entire financial sector. Not to worry though… all those wealthy homeowners (at least those that pay taxes) will get a chance to put there money where their mouth is and deservedly so….

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Just me
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HCG is way too small, not comparable to Bear-Stern or Countrywide. Yet, a very significant development.
I think Morneau and Poloz will step into the fray over the next couple of days (my best guess is Friday afternoon).
Poloz is all too eager to bail out lenders: he’d love the housing shitshow to go on. One thing he got out of this mess? The CAD$ is in the gutter again, we all collectively got an extra 5% paycut in the last week.
Thanks Poloz.

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patriotz
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Also neither Bear-Stearns not Countrywide were federally insured banks. The only bailout here, if required, is going to be of the depositors. Shareholders and creditors get the scraps once CDIC assigns the deposits to somewhere else (likely PC Financial or Tangerine).

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bullwhip29
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common shers are going to zero

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bullwhip29
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obviously not on same scale as US but a pivotal moment imho. we are still talking about billions of dollars nevertheless. the issue at hand is that liquidity could dry up for alt lenders in the blink of an eye which would be problematic to say the least for RE and overall consumer confidence. the powers that be in Ottawa are acutely aware that RE is the only game in town and that the sector is too big to fail.

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patriotz
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The Feds know all too well that the higher Toronto goes the more likely a devastating bust becomes inevitable. Witness the extraordinary declaration recently that they will not take any measures to boost prices, and yet people keep buying.

I think this may be the “kill the chicken to scare the monkey” opportunity – let Home Capital go down in flames to try to get the public to cool it. HCG doesn’t have the tentacles into the financial system that the majors have so the collateral damage will be minimal. The very fact that they had to go to the private sector for funding at high rates speaks volumes.

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oncebittwiceshy
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It might be small in relation to the big banks, Patriotz but it looks like the fallout could be a lot bigger. I have to agree with Bullwhip on this one.

http://www.raymondjames.ca/en_ca/equity_capital_markets/equity_research/sample_research/docs/HCG.pdf

Major market participants consistently describe this market as underpenetrated and cite this as a
reason for its historical growth trend. Based on a yield-based stratification of Teranet-provided
industry data, Home estimates that ~20%, or ~$280 billion, of the ~$1.4 trillion Canadian
residential mortgage market falls into the non-prime category. After further refining this market
to exclude higher-yield (i.e., subprime) loans and loans in regions not targeted by Home (including
most rural locations), Home estimates that ~60%, or ~$168 billion, of the non-prime segment
represents its addressable market. Home’s current Traditional mortgage portfolio of $11.1 billion
therefore represents an estimated 7% share of its true target market.

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patriotz
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I suggest you look at the details of that private line of credit. Clearly the Feds told them to take a hike, otherwise they would not have resorted to this.

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oncebittwiceshy
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Very true, my friend, but what better way for the feds to blow up the market without taking the fall.

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ostritch
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Sorry but Joe Q Public won’t get the connection between a lender they never heard of and their desire to own property. Most CDNs don’t even understand that CMHC insurance insures the banks not them.

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ostritch
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Bailing out lenders is what the Goldman Sacks Boyz are there to do.

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Whistler or Bust?
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The whole lending game is based on trust and while HCG’s mortgages are not failing (at this point) no one trusts them and their access to credit to drying up. It will be very very interesting to see if there is a knock on effect on local smaller lenders and MIC’s who rely on investments and deposits. IE: http://www.capitaldirect.ca/private-investors Why on earth would someone give these guys money for 8% when they could buy a publicly traded REIT and earn nearly the same yield WITH capital gains potential? I wonder if HCG will result in a drying up of capital for these much smaller firms and if any are running a Ponzi scheme we shall soon find out. I predict notices going out any day to anyone in a small MIC that redemptions and withdrawals are “temporarily suspended due to… Read more »
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Best place on meth
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It’s debate time and a great opportunity for a VCI drinking game.

Every time the corrupt cunt mentions the 90’s, do a shot.

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Bestplaceonearth
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NDP was shot down during the affordable debate by both green and liberal. No need to see the rest.

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YVR
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Horgan lost. No question. They guy has not ideas. Just bitching and complaining.

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Whistler or Bust?
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Whistler or Bust?
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Yep. An angry union hack that wants to run our province.

But Burnaby is getting a shiny new hospital. Who will pay?

The NDP doesn’t care, they know if they win, in 4 years they will be in Siberia for another 20.

Liberals win again in 2017!

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Best place on meth
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Boom! There’s the first one.

SQUAAAAWK!!!

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Best place on meth
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Boom! #2.

SQUAAAAWK!!!

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Specuskeptic
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Kudos for facing the dragon. I react violently at sighting the visage – I can’t even use the name…

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Best place on meth
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sorry, I’m totallly hammered right now

what the dragon…is a visage…

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paulb
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New
245
Price Change
47
Sold
138

TI:8531

https://instagram.com/clivestevepaul

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YVR
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Here is how I rank the debate:

1. Andrew Weaver
2. Christy Clark
3. Red Face

Does red face have any ideas other than bitching and complaining like a bitter old lady? That is two losses in a row for red face.

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Best place on meth
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1. Beaver
2. Horgan
3. Corrupt Cunt

Every time Corrupt Cunt was asked about her failures, she changed the subject.

Moderator: Premiere Clark, you are under investigation by the RCMP for illegal campaign donations, you’ve only recently given up your $50K a year salary top up which came from campaign contributions after much public outrage, and you’ve falsely accused Mr. Horgan of hacking into your party website.
What can you do to repair the lost trust with the people of British Columbia?

Corrupt Cunt: Uhmm….you know…. I believe that the most important thing to the people of British Columbia is the economy and jobs…..

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Whistler or Bust?
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Sorry Meth. Your boy got his ass handed to him.

Get used to it.

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Best place on meth
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Who the fuck cares what a “Today’s BC Liberal” supporter thinks?

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Just me
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A Today’s BC Liberal does not think. They repeat soundbites, smile and rue about the 90s.
Hirgan had a great performance, he should have been even more direct and call Kruelty Clark corrupt, right in her fat face.

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Liberal 2017
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His vote is worth as much as yours

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Dyugle
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1 Geek
2 Dork
3 Prom Queen

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Best place on meth
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Top 10 takes on tonights debate:

1. I learned absolutely nothing new. Seriously, not one fucking thing.
2. All 3 of them came across as sleazy politicians
3. When sleazy politicians debate, it’s painful to listen to and I want to stab my eardrums with steak knives.
4. I’ve been more inspired by coupons I find in my mailbox than I was by this debate.
5. Debates in Canada are so boring, they should be banned – or a snap poll should declare which candidate came in last and that candidate will be summarily executed on live TV.
6. Andrew Weaver is alternatively fiesty and super-annoying.
7. The moderator was the worst I’ve ever seen.
8. The whole time I was wishing Trump was on the stage.
9. Thank god there was a hockey game on the other channel.
10. HOORAY, NO MORE DEBATES!

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Just me
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The moderator was the only thing worse than Kruelty Clark. Don’t we have any better?

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Best place on meth
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Pre-debate photo from L-R

https://i.cbc.ca/1.4087769.1493256086!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_620/christy-clark-andrew-weaver-john-horgan.jpg

Fake smile….taking a shit…..let’s get to work.

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Just me
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Weaver is really pushing for this one. Might get a hernia.

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Hyper-mega-Bull
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Guys, how r house prices? Anyone look at stats anymore?

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Confucius
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Peaking out along with your recently posted space shuttle launch pic, same as last year. Prices will fall from now throughout summer.

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ostritch
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Ask them again after the election.

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ostritch
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Sounds like Home Capital is soon a buy. Government will back it.

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bullwhip29
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Pricey catering at Vancouver housing affordability talks raise eyebrows
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/city-catering

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southseacompany
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southseacompany
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“The path to real estate bubble panic”, Maclean’s

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/the-path-to-real-estate-bubble-panic/

“We trace the growing concern over Canada’s housing market—particularly Toronto’s—as shown by quotes from policymakers, economists and analysts”

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southseacompany
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“Is Home Capital’s crisis the pin that pops the housing bubble?”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economic-insight/is-home-capitals-crisis-the-pin-that-pops-the-housing-bubble/article34824837/

“Right now, this is a meltdown at a scandal-plagued company that just fired its CEO amidst a regulatory investigation. But in Canada’s overheated residential real estate market, there are analysts predicting Home Capital’s woes could be the pin that pops a housing bubble.”

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southseacompany
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“Mortgage rates continue to defy expectations as Trump sunup fizzles”, Globe & Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/mortgage-rates-continue-to-defy-predictions/article34817515/

“Here’s the least surprising news you’ll hear all day: Interest rates are not doing what most experts predicted.”

“Mortgage rates blasted off after Donald Trump’s presidential win last November. The narrative back then was that he’d trigger higher inflation and borrowing demand and potentially exacerbate credit risk – all of which are rocket fuel for interest rates.”

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bullwhip29
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Micro suites in Vancouver renting for $1,700 a month
http://globalnews.ca/news/3408585/micro-suites-in-vancouver-renting-for-1700-a-month/

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http://macro-man.blogspot.in/2017/04/im-yelling-timber-cads-going-down_27.html

‘Focusing back on the USDCAD cross. This whole time, current account in Canada has shrunk versus that of the US while unemployment has risen relative to that of the US. Normally, I would try to be a contrarian and look for reasons to fade those fundamental changes.

‘But in this situation, the housing bubble has gotten me thinking that things can actually continue to worsen.’

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https://canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2017/04/home-capital-stares-into-the-abyss.html

Here’s what’s not going for Home Capital

A reputation-crushing OSC investigation (the company maintains its innocence; the first hearing is May 4)
A run on deposits
A cost of funds that just hit double-digits (at least for the short-term)
Broker perception (a material percentage of brokers may no longer refer it business)

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bullwhip29
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co clearly had its head in the clouds for too long and/or thought they could weasel their way out of the clusterf&%k they created without anyone noticing. now out of total desperation they do deal with the devil and are now bringing on advisors to explore “strategic options”. the big 5 banks turned their heads on HCG 18-24 months ago and will most certainly not be interested in buying them complete with all their baggage. perhaps someone will kick the tires and possibly cherry pick the carcass (leaving the toxic mess for the likes of you and i to choke on). hopeful longs should take the opportunity to cash out of the shares while they are up somewhat this morning on relief rally, bottom fishing and short covering.

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bullwhip29
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on the debate, it was clear weaver stole the show while horgan and krusty did little to convince any fence sitters. unfortunately, this also plays into the premiers hands. i suspect once the election is over (and according to horgan, it is) christy the crook will wipe the silly smile off her face and move ahead with all the plans (both announced and ones deliberately kept under wraps) she is itching to unleash on the public. once all is said and done, the next 4 yrs will be her last term and final opportunity to make hay, so to speak. first move will be to harmonize bc’s FBT rules and conditions with those of toronto. should the HCG situation result in a meaningful shock to the credit markets and RE prices in Cda, expect both wynne and clark to water… Read more »
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Christy reminds me of Neville Chamberlain, working the appeasement routine. Try and spot WinstonChurchill. He’s out there, in many a blackbook, meddling in the clusterfck abdication.

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Bank stocks still trending down today….

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Kim
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https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/us-hedge-funds-make-bets-against-canadas-home-capital-group/article33438764/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

Dug up this article from December. Lol at the author. Sounds like the typical ignorant and arrogant Canadian. “It can’t happen here ” because we are too prudent and don’t take risks and don’t do shady things. Never the case when the “market” or more aptly put Ponzi scheme is driven by 3rd world locusts.

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bullwhip29
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China exposes whereabouts of corruption fugitives
http://www.china.org.cn/china/2017-04/27/content_40707772.htm

Chinese authorities Thursday released information on 22 corruption suspects who have fled overseas, including their possible current whereabouts…

Cheng Muyang, former chairman of Hong Kong Jiadali Investment Co., Ltd. and former manager of the Beijing subsidiary of Beifang International Advertisement Company, was suspected of embezzlement and concealment of illegal gains. He is believed to be living in “Oakridge Community, Vancouver, Canada,” according to the notice

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the public can report relevant information to the Chinese authorities via the website http://www.12388.gov.cn/ztzz

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Funkeymonkey
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He is old news. Last I heard he was fighting deportation.

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“Whistleblowers are accountable for the authenticity of their reporting. Those who deliberately invent stories against others or make trouble and interfere with the functioning of discipline inspection and supervision agencies will be seriously handled according to relevant regulations.”

Oooh, that sounds terrifying.

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The very top of the Chinese food chain needs a good shit kicking. Same with Europe and North America.

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Funkeymonkey
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I live in that neighborhood. I will keep watch I hope there is a reward.

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Doomcouver
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Extradition treaty please. Trudeau is always going on about how great China is. If they’re so great let’s send them some scalps and really buddy up to them. Canadians don’t want these criminal scum here anyways.

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Careful what you wish for. The Japanese during the 1930s comes to mind. But dont expect the same results.

The essence of our times is one of Financial War, Trade War, and Currency War. Global ashats want to move here for the freeride,to get a slice… not actually want to integrate into the Canadian matrix. They are petrifried to actually work and add value. Sadly i see the day when their uselessness is laid bare. They are really only good at consuming Free Social Capital built on the backs of the Canadians born here, despite what the historical record suggests about immigrants. They add little, except more debt for the UN deep state pigs and their plans.. which you dont wanna know. More debt, and More debt… thanks morons.

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