Normally this post would happen on a Friday, but somebody went amiss.
This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes in the comments below and have an excellent weekend!
Who has a handle on all the new inventory going up on our 3 major North-South corridors into the city? There must be 60 projects planned for Cambie alone. All of these places have to add to inventory? No? But so many projects sell out. When I ask, they say it’s a blend of locals and foreigners buying.
IMO the good news is all these projects come online over the next couple of years as interest rates rise, SFH slowly drops, empty home taxation kicks in, and CMHC has tightened some rules.
This makes it a perfect storm for this inventory to come online just in time for presale speculators to sweat a little and maybe lower asking prices. Would be interesting if enough of them lose money to discourage further speculation.
[…] Owe Canada posted this in the weekends thread and it’s got some very interesting numbers: […]
It’s weird. I guess Xi only managed to block Chinese money heading to Vancouver, but it’s still flowing to Toronto. There is no other way to explain it.
They bid prices up too high here. They were then “insulted” by the tax. They love momentum so they’ll get over it.
Election: Parent group founder goes it alone in Richmond
Dong Pan, one of the organizers of grass roots group Parents Care, wants to draw attention to school board’s proposed LGBT sensitivity policy
Obviously, he doesn’t want to be priced out of Richmond;
“Your Gay Neighbors Really Are Raising Your Real Estate Values” https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/07/your-gay-neighbors-really-are-raising-your-real-estate-values/260437/
New Coast Realty is doing so well: http://newcoast.ca/Eng/Index
According to their recent flyers, they did $2.5 billions in sales in 2016.
Simple math: assuming 2% commission: $2.5 b x 2% = $50 million
Divided among 13 realtors: $3.85 million each, well done.
Sales Hotline: 778-888-7777
“Hotline” LOL.
98 BC Liberal Falsehoods, Boondoggles and Scandals
https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/04/03/BC-Liberal-Campbell-Falsehoods-Scandals/
part 1 of 15 part series…
Fintrac document to real-estate sector to be wary of certain ‘ethnic communities’ nixed after CREA catches it
http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/fintrac-document-to-real-estate-sector-to-be-wary-of-certain-ethnic-communities-nixed-after-crea-catches-it
>>> naturally, the real estate industry crys foul, indirectly plays the race card and then gets what it really wants at the end of the day.
New mixed-use development proposed for Vancouver’s west side
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/new-mixed-use-development-proposed-for-vancouvers-west-side
“It’s absolutely huge that we get supporters out to the meeting,” said Wood. “The only people that usually show up at these meetings are the local homeowners that don’t want change, and it biases the city planners. We want to see support for projects like this.”
Wood said it’s time to address the growing inequity in how and where density is being allowed in the city. “The west side has a really troubling history of exclusionary zoning, although we have decades and decades of demand for affordable housing in the area.”
The joke is on us infighting here all the time by lauding the Liberals and trashing the NDP OR vice-versa.
They are the same people behind the scenes. I’m going to leave it at that. I’m not helping any of these parties who are only different in name. But I will vote NDP knowing this.
People need to wake up and soon.
Remember that you need to show ID and sockpuppets don’t vote LOL.
Apr 2nd, 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News
New ambassador to Beijing bullish on Canada-China ties
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/new-ambassador-to-beijing-bullish-on-canada-china-ties
McCallum, in an interview with Postmedia, said his mandate from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is simple: “I summarized my philosophy as ‘more, more, more.’ We want more trade, we want more investments, we want more tourists, more students and more co-operation in areas like the environment and climate change.”
Has anybody even considered checking whether such speeding up of the relationship is desirable from the point of view of most Canadians? Are we sure this is what most people in Canada truly desire? And is there any obvious reason why this is going to be beneficial to Canada? All this enthusiasm should be backed by serious arguments showing benefits for Canada, both immediate and in the long run. Is this too much to ask of our government?
Follow up from Bloomberg.
Trudeau Ramps Up Courtship of Xi Amid China Free-Trade Talk
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is doubling down on a push to deepen ties with China, with Canada’s new envoy signaling he can move ahead on a free-trade deal without quickly advancing extradition treaty talks.
The worst of both worlds. Free trade without repatriation of money launderers.
Turdeau is a smart as his Marxist father who said Mao’s government was “leading its people out of several millennia of misery.”
With Jr. it’s “There’s a level of admiration I actually have for China. Their basic dictatorship is actually allowing them to turn their economy around on a dime.”
Neither father or son seemed to care much about the 50 million killed by Mao and his gangsters which doesn’t include atrocities outside of china by accomplice regimes.
Canadians should be disgusted by Justin’s behaviour.
During the Federal Election the Liberals were not shy about their intent to increase immigration. So anyone voting for Trudeau had to weigh that consideration. When the Federal Election was taking place, there were some debates on this blog. I mentioned that a vote for Trudeau was a vote for more immigration, and many mentioned that was OK for them as long as they got rid of Harper. You do realize that Trudeau has been less of a house pumper than Harper, and the CMHC’s new rules are a reflection of that? Anyway, as Newcomer has pointed out. Immigration doesn’t necessarily lead to higher housing prices. We’re in a speculative bubble right now and many non-immigration suggestions have been put forth that will lower prices. Things like limiting credit, increasing mortgage rates, reducing CMHC support further, taxing non-local tax payers… Read more »
” taxing empty properties will lower prices despite Trudeau’s immigration agenda, assuming we don’t allow tons more wealth immigration and stick to skills based immigration.”
As much as I would like to believe you, that ismjust not possible with China.
Rob Shaw: Government braces for bombshell report into health firings scandal
This confirms the very poor moral compass of Christy Clark and her band. If there was any need of confirmation.
4598 W. 8th Ave, Vancouver, price reduction:
Brand new house with a lane way house.
DATE PRICE
Feb 17, 2017 $4,180,000
Jan 20, 2017 $4,390,000
Jan 15, 2017 $4,480,000
More Poloz-splation;
“The Bank of Canada’s muddled message on house prices”, Macleans magazine
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-bank-of-canadas-muddled-message-on-house-prices/
“Stephen Poloz refuses to say whether Canada’s housing market is in a bubble. But he does have one message: don’t blame him for soaring prices”
Note what Poloz said back in 2016
What I feared is actually becoming reality.
As much as most people hate Christy and the BC Libs for especially their inaction on runaway house and rent prices, I now can say with certain confidence that the NDP will also be in the pockets of developers and banks.
People are being given the illusion of choice (like Trudeau) without there being any choice at all. I’m seriously considering withdrawing any support for any party here in BC.
What we need here in BC is proportional representation, mandatory voting, and donation limits so at the next election the people maybe represented.
The NDP, Libs, Greens are parties with different names but the powers behind them are all the same.
Write ‘None of the Above’ on the ballet.
After this election, I’m tempted to form the ‘None of the Above’ Party. We would nominate a token candidate in each riding who would do no campaigning whatsoever. We would have no platform and if elected, our representatives would not show up in the Legislature. The salary and pension would be donated to a worthy cause.
Do they have some safeguards in place to ensure the election is not going to be hacked….? I wonder who (interests) would do the hacking?
After all: Canada won silver! In corruption that is.
(And CC accused NDP of hacking, and made it worse with a Mickey Mouse explanation and “apology”, how pathetic.)
If it can be hacked then the chinese will be the ones doing the hacking to keep Krusty in place.
These crooks have a mutual admiration for each other.
Not voting is by default probably going to allow the Liberals to win. Some sneaky BC Liberal supporters and RE pumpers may try to convince people to not vote or vote None of the Above for just that purpose. I suggest that people who are undecided try to weigh the pros and cons and just make a decision. Regardless of Oracle and YVR fearmongering, the truth is that the NDP has proposed some things to try and address housing affordability, and we already know Christy’ Clark’s idea of creating affordability is through having us take on more personal debt. Only you can decide if more the chance of more affordable housing is worth the risk of not having Uber, having $150k+ earners pay 2% more tax, and whatever else you may fear from the NDP. For me I’d like to… Read more »
My NDP candidate is unelectable. Too much Social Justice BS. I could consider holding my nose for other candidates but I don’t have that choice. My green candidate seems best of the bunch but I don’t like their leader.
Still with None of the Above.
Nonsense. We need a change of government after 20 years. We are becoming like Zimbabwe, with a handful of politicians openly taking bribes (and calling them salaries).
I will vote NDP since it is the only realistic alternative.
The report by Transparancy International on money laundering in real estate is a good read. http://www.transparency.org/whatwedo/publication/doors_wide_open_corruption_and_real_estate_in_four_key_markets The lowdown on Canada: Canada’s legal framework has severe deficiencies under four of the 10 identified areas. In the other six, there are either significant loopholes that increase risks of money laundering through the real estate sector or severe problems in implementation and enforcement of the law. While anti-money laundering provisions cover real estate agents, brokers and developers, notaries from British Columbia and accountants, they do not cover other professions such as lawyers, law firms and Quebec notaries. Given their roles in real estate closings, this is a major loophole. Real estate professionals are not required to identify the beneficial owners of customers when conducting due diligence. Transparency International Canada’s analysis of land title records found that nearly a half of the 100 most… Read more »
China cracks down on ‘financial ants’ smuggling cash to Hong Kong
https://www.ft.com/content/6aa1faca-bd2e-11e6-8b45-b8b81dd5d080
Look at the pic on this FT article.
Can’t read it’s behind the paywall apparently.
Sorry, cant solve that. Perhaps try a VPN? It should work.
Or search for it with one of the alternative search engines that might give yo a cached version.
The article and the pic are both great.
Google “China cracks down on ‘financial ants’ smuggling cash to Hong Kong” and click on the link. The picture doesn’t match the story.
For the record, not sure what picture they have now. But just off the press, the article featured a guy being detained by Chinese police (presumably at the HK border) with wads of US dollar bills strapped around his legs.
Incidentally, this picture was featured by the FT itself, not some third rate news source.
The article is also very instructive, should be mandatory for people planning to vote BC Libs in the next election.
Yup. That is the picture selected by the FT this morning. Good find.
Yup. That’s the guy. Does match with the story, which is about getting ren min bi out of the country.
We are number two, yeah!!!
Transparency International has released a new report, entitled Doors Wide Open: Corruption and Real Estate in Four Key Markets, which has identified Australia, Canada, the UK and the USA as the top four spots targeted by corrupt officials or criminals for real estate crime.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-01/australia-has-worlds-worst-money-laundering-property-market
Christy Clark and her government of crooks must feel proud.
On Friday, when asked why the BC goverment refuses to pass along information about housing transactions to the CRA, one of her brilliant ministers said that…it is not their duty.
Inviting more money laundering from the main door.
Zero Hedge? Really?
That site is based on the principle that people have too a short memory to recall their past predictions. I’m not sure they’ve been right about anything, ever.
You have a problem with a report by Transparacy International on money laundering in real estate because it was reposted on Zero Hedge?
Really, fake newcomer?
Admit it, you’d never heard of Transparency International before today.
Is this the best argument you have after BPOM just pointed out hiw ridiculous your statement was? Of course we all know TI, we live in one of the money laundering capitals of the world. Even if we wanted to ignore TI, we could not.
May I add that we are a money laundering capital exactly thanks to people like you, who minimize the problem and play the race card.
He wasn’t even replying to me, dummy.
You are the most arrogant and least humble individual I ever interacted with. Hopefully I will never cross ways with you in real life. I pity those who will.
There’s a reason why I don’t interact with that lying, race-baiting, traitorous sack of dogshit.
Now you know.
I was just surprised that the OP wasn’t embarrassed to have people see where they get their ideas. But good for you for backing them up, I guess. Might as well own it.
It seems that Canada fails in all 10 areasl. This assessment identifies the following 10 main problems that have enabled corrupt individuals and other criminals to easily purchase luxurious properties anonymously and hide their stolen money in Australia, Canada, the UK and the US: 1 Inadequate coverage of anti-money laundering provision 2 Identification of the beneficial owners of legal entities, trusts and other legal arrangements is still not the norm 3 Foreign companies have access to the real estate market with few requirements or checks 4 Over-reliance on due diligence checks by financial institutions leads to cash transactions going unnoticed 5 Insufficient rules on suspicious transaction reports and weak implementation 6 Weak or no checks on politically exposed persons and their associates 7 Limited control over professionals who can engage in real estate transactions: no “fit and proper” test 8… Read more »
I really hope we can ratify the extradition treaty with China. There’s way too much dirty money flowing to Canada as it’s a perceived safe haven away from the clutches of the CCP. If the extradition treaty goes through, I could definitely see a rush to the exits after the first few scumbags get extradited. They’ll likely run to Australia or the USA though, so it sucks to be those two countries if this plays out.
Open question for the bears? Do you see any real evidence of price drops in the trenches? I am seeing sold signs on places that have been on the market for sometime. Everyone says it feels like it’s back to before the 15% tax was put on.
Are prices actually dropping or this is a “phoney war”?
Stories from the trenches are of no use. You cannot understand a market by looking at a few individual sales.
Don’t forget it’s spring. So they’ll be some natural activity. Many stats points to a downturn in prices.
The data (as linked by Newcomer) is very specifically pointing to price reductions. Steve Saretsky’s also been reporting on this. From the trenches I can report two things: I went to a $1.2M Eastside SFH open house recently. The house was very livable. Over 10 parties showed up in the 10 minutes I was there, and people were coming in as I left. Not a single “foreigner” (everyone spoke English and 50% were caucasians). One older 50s asian gentlemen was overheard speaking to the agent asking how he could buy the home if he had to split the downpayment with someone else as he couldn’t afford the home himself. I went to a $1.5M Eastside SFH open house. The house was much newer, the lot smaller, the house smaller. Only 4 parties were there, with one speaking only Mandarin and… Read more »
This would make sense due to the new capital controls in China. The main players in the market now are likely almost exclusively locals, or foreigners that still have some money left they got out of China before the capital flight blockade came down.
You nailed it on the head. The cash flow has (temporarily) stopped. The longer Xi Jinping keeps the floodgates from breaching, the longer Vancouver will have no buyers of properties above 2 millions.
Hey Just Me,
What’s your opinion exactly about locals who are snatching up $1.2M properties. Isn’t that still very overpriced? Would you not agree that many locals are the problem at that price point?
Of course. That price is probably what most people with some existing equity from previous purchases can affird. Maybe up to 1.6 for but nit more. And yes, there are scared locals buying out of fear. But their pool has been depleted over the years, and the real trickle diwn money comes from larger transactions.
With supply so constrained, any property that might be buyable (with pooled downpayments etc.) is likely to attract interest from those looking to buy the dip.
Whistler, i had the same unsettling feeling. BUT, as Newcomer mentions, individual stories generally are not a good indicator. It is Spring, so more houses will sell. If you’ve been watching certain houses sit for months and then they do sell, well that was probably inevitable. It would be interesting to know if the prices were marked down to generate the sale. I’ve seen some here in North Burnaby sell that’d had been listed for months. But I’ve also seen several that have been sitting for ever, even in the Spring market. Sebastien’s examples certainly suggest SFH’s have come down.
Even one bedroom condos have come down a bit. Zolo was showing 13% yoy 3 weeks ago, now that’s down to 7%.
I think the bottom line is we should not get too stressed about it “starting up again” until we see the data show something more substantial. Right now the data is showing what we all want to see.
No way. Look at the house price index at Larry’s site. Up. It’s up.
Odd for Dunbar:
5830 Alma Street, Vancouver
Oct 15:$4,398,000
Apr 1: $3,500,000
Change: – 898,000 -20%
Ah good old Burnaby…:
452 Northcliffe Crescent, Burnaby
Oct 15:$2,700,000
Apr 1: $1,848,000
Change: – 852,000 -32%
What happened there? Development got cancelled? 10.35 million were exchanged overseas? In a brown paper bag?:
2186 97a Avenue, Surrey
Mar 13:$11,500,000
Apr 1: $1,150,000
Change: – 10,350,000 -90%
They realized had put extra 0
It took them 3 weeks to find this out? Talk about crappy realtors…
April 1, 2017 Daily Review Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News
https://www.pressreader.com/canada/the-globe-and-mail-bc-edition/20170401/281487866192317 Really interesting article on Mortgage Investment Corporations. I guess that it’s a coincidence that Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia are/were also the bubbliest provinces. Never mind the risky investment portfolios, let’s all ask why people are jumping all over high rate mortgages. Why are developers paying these higher interest rates? “Official figures on the exact size of the mortgage-investment industry today are hard to come by, but it is estimated to be as high as $25billion.” “But there was a tradeoff for borrowers. MICs and other similar firms often charged annual interest rates between 5 per cent and 15 per cent, which meant they provided expensive debt. ” “Through his research, he learned that MICs operate on a similar model as U.S. banks that specialize in construction lending, rather than that of run-of-the-mill residential mortgage lenders. This is troublesome,… Read more »
The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated. Growing the debt in the economy significantly faster than the economy itself grows seems to have developed into a way of life in Canada. At the end of December, 2016 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $7.29 trillion. At the end of December, 2015 the total debt outstanding was $6.98 trillion. In the one year period from the end of December, 2015 to the end of December, 2016 it increased by $309 billion. This is an increase of 4.4%. The approximate beginning of the global financial crisis was June, 2007. At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding was $3.99 trillion. In the last 9-1/2 years it has increased by $3.3… Read more »
Canadian annual gdp at the present time is $2.06 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2015 to the end of December, 2016 (calendar year 2016) the Canadian economy grew by 1.4% – ie: the size of the economy grew by $28.9 billion. In this same 1 year time frame the total debt outstanding in Canada grew by $309 billion. For each $1.00 the economy grew in this 1 year period the total debt outstanding increased by $10.69. Looking at just the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors in Canada. In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2015 to the end of December, 2016 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors increased by $215 billion. For each $1.00 the economy grew in this 1 year period the total debt outstanding of… Read more »
Those are some impressive numbers.