Canada, data, hype, opinion, predictions, prices

We’re all super-high on housing

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From southseacompany, confidence in the Canadian housing market has reached a record high:

“The experts are getting louder in their warnings that a housing bubble has formed in some parts of Canada, but Canadians don’t seem worried.”

“In fact, confidence in the housing market hit a record high in the latest weekly Bloomberg-Nanos index — even as respondents turned negative on their own personal finances.”

“The survey found 48.5 per cent of Canadians expect house prices to rise in the next six months, the highest level recorded in the survey since 2008. Fewer than 11 per cent expect to see house prices decrease.”

Read the full article over at Huffington Post.

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[…] –House prices down, condos up –The path to bubble panic –Microsuites in bad hood only $1700 –Flip-Flopped –Who’s lending money to HCG? –Bad day for lenders –Drowning in debt is the new normal […]

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[…] money for real estate in Canada would be a no-lose deal, but Home Capital Groups shares collapsed 41% at open […]

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realist

The price action in Home Capital Group this week is undoubtedly a significant event for the Canadian housing market. The timing from the distress of this vulnerable canary to the demise in the remainder of the mine remains to be seen. Will the timeline to generalized distress follow the interval of many months, as in the case of the collapse of the UK’s Northern Rock Building Society (September, 2007), or the much shorter interval of the collapse of Countrywide Financial (June, 2008)?

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Whistler or Bust?

I would love to believe that but I think this is more a crisis in confidence which resulted in their access to capital drying up than the quality of their mortgages. They are likely going to zero but not because people are defaulting on their loans (as the examples above)

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Whistler or Bust?

Many others falling as well:
Genworth -8%
First National -10%
Canadian Western Bank -5%
Equitable Group -31%

I wonder what Capital Direct would be down today if it was publicly traded?

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Bear Vancouverite

Losing $200k on a flip:

2883 E 43rd Avenue (Van Special in Killarney area)

Listed this week: $1,488,000

2016 Assessed: $1,526,000
2015 Assessed: $1,163,600

Last sold:

14 Mar 2016: $1,680,000

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Bear Vancouverite

Another flip that flopped (selling price below last sold price in 2016)

4855 Lanark Street (Knight area)

New price this week: $1,498,000
Previous price in Feb: $1,598,000

2015 Assessed: $1,098,500
2016 Assessed: $1,485,200

Last sold:
17 May 2016: $1,583,000

After closing fees and etc the seller may be out $150k plus carrying costs. He’s probably lost most or all of his downpayment (assuming it sells at this price)

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Oracle

This is more like an actual decrease. Not the ones going -25% in a single reduction and under assessed. Those are foreign transactions because China tightened outflows so buyers are paying sellers in cash in China.

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Bear Vancouverite

Those ones you keep harping about are not foreign transactions because some of them as of yet have not been sold.

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Shut It Down Already

Shocking.

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Oracle

Check the titles…..not the MLS system. Thats all I’m gonna say.

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BubbleTea

Canada’s Housing Bubble Explodes As Its Biggest Mortgage Lender Crashes Most In History
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-26/canadas-housing-bubble-explodes-its-biggest-mortgage-lender-crashes-most-history

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BubbleTea

More People Are Buying Toronto Real Estate That Shouldn’t, And Half Are At Risk of Defaulting
https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/more-people-are-buying-toronto-real-estate-that-shouldnt-and-half-are-at-risk-of-defaulting/
Can you say bubble!

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BubbleTea

CTV: Watchdog says 177 donors gave B.C. Liberals millions, got billions
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/watchdog-says-177-donors-gave-b-c-liberals-millions-got-billions-1.3385054#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=0AL7yhT
Krusty should be locked up. Where are the RCMPs?

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Ulsterman

Looking like Canadian real estate bear and short seller Marc Cohodes may be right -Home Capital opened down another 50% today….

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Kskks

You can be right about home capital but wrong about Canadian real estate.

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Abdul Lahazi

or you can be in denial.

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bullwhip29

i think the problem is more widespread than advertised with similar shenanigans likely going on at place like Dominion lending, capital direct etc not to mention the boiler rooms of the big 5 banks themselves

HCG is just the tip of the iceberg

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YVR

HCG is being charged 10% interest for a $100m loan. That tells you everything right there about the risk. Giving mortgages for 3% with a cost of money of 10% does not work.

HCG will be wound down. Those with HCG mortgages will be forced to qualify with someone else except this time following the rules. In other words they will not qualify. CDIC insurace will end up paying back depositors. Credit will massively tighten for all lenders and CMHC. CDIC wil adjust its rules for lenders The credit bubble just popped IMO.

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Shut It Down Already

Equitable down 40% today, too.

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Bear Vancouverite

The loan is scarier then that. They have to pay a $100M commitment fee, and 10% on outstanding amounts. They have to draw down $1B or there are additional costs. And the carrying cost of the line of credit, on the unused portion is 2.5%. yikes.

“Home Capital will pay 10 percent interest on outstanding balances and a non-refundable commitment fee of C$100 million, while standby fee on undrawn funds is 2.5 percent. The initial draw must be C$1 billion. The loan has an effective interest rate of 22.5 percent on the first C$1 billion, declining to 15 percent if fully utilized, according to a note from Jaeme Gloyn, an analyst at National Bank of Canada.”

Carrying this loan will be like swimming through shark infested waters with a metal chain around your neck.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-26/home-capital-gets-c-2-billion-loan-will-miss-financial-goals

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bullwhip29

Home Capital plunges 41% at open as it seeks $2B line of credit amid declining deposits
http://www.bnn.ca/home-capital-seeks-2b-line-of-credit-as-deposits-plunge-1.735043

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airborne canine

I am the only one here who is shocked in a good way about the new 15% foreign buyers tax being imposed in Victoria. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/victoria-looks-to-follow-vancouver-on-foreign-buyers-tax/article34801717/

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patriotz

Actually the article says that the City of Victoria, which has only a fraction of the metro population and is an NDP stronghold, has asked the provincial government to bring in the tax.

However it may well happen, a lot depends on who wins provincially.

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YVR

“However it may well happen, a lot depends on who wins provincially.”

We know if Horgan wins it ain’t happening. He owns 2 houses in Victoria. Probably his whole net worth is ‘invested’ in Victoria RE. P

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Oracle

All HAM does is travel in packs in big SUVs and travel from property to property buying houses.

No income tax paid. We have to tax these people.

The Sauder plan but at 5%. Not 2%.

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Best place on meth

Mayor Qu congratulates Krusty on her victory in 2013

http://www.mayorofvancouver.ca/bcelectionstatement

As Mayor, I’m committed to working with the Premier on building the partnerships we need to deliver on Vancouver’s priorities, including strengthening our local economy (unknown), ending street homelessness( MASSIVE FAIL!), making housing more affordable (SUPER MASSIVE FAIL!!), and investing in urgently-needed transit improvements (HYPER MEGA SUPER MASSIVE FAIL!!!).

Just my humble opinion, but I truly believe that our elected representatives at all three levels of government have become so fucking useless that they’re not even suitable to be burned as fuel.

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Just me

That is quite a quote you found.
We have been let down so badly, it will take years to dig ourselves out.

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Combat roach

That’s what you get when you elect complete clowns or politicians in attempt, who are each individually obsessed with Chinese shit due to their personal agendas..

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Best place on meth

Krusty up in Prince George telling people to “remember the 90’s”

What a fucking one trick pony.

http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/news/local-news/clark-touts-liberals-economic-track-record-1.16466301

Comments are great, she’s going to lose a lot of seats in the interior.

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Just me

Comments are great. These people have figured out the number of Kruelty Clark.

PS She did not wear one of her expensive (tax payer subsidized) dresses. She is folksy Clark when talking inlamd….so fake.

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Abdul Lahazi

Like Gordon Campbell wearing his plaid shirt.

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Best place on meth

REMEMBER THE 90’S?

SQUAWWWWK!!!

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Oracle Sockpuppet Doppelganger III

FAST FERRIES RAAAWRK

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Oracle

The name is trademarked.

Pay up $$$

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Oracle

But but Horgans ancestors in the Bronze Age weren’t good fiscally. They spent too much on swords. Can’t vote for him /S

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Best place on meth

Latest poll shows a major move after weeks of gridlock, NDP extend their lead to 10 points over the Liberals with 44% to 34%.

Greens rise yet again to 22%.

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-surges-post-radio-debate/

I blame Krusty’s innapropriate touching for her slide.

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Oracle Sockpuppet Doppelganger III

Too big a gap and BC millennial lazyfucks will stay home and we’ll be all at square one…again.

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Best place on meth

Start a rumour the day before the election that West Nile Virus has broken out across the province and the useless “protect my equity” Boomers will stay home as well.

Advantage retaken.

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bullwhip29

Fannie Mae Introduces Innovative Solutions for Borrowers with Student Loan Debt
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/media/financial-news/2017/student-loan-debt-6546.html

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Sebastien

Your opinion on this piece Oracle?:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-b-c-election-and-the-folly-of-strategic-voting/

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Best place on meth

McLean’s fails on the very first sentence:

“In two weeks, British Columbians will go to the polls to decide whether to grant Premier Christy Clark’s Liberals a third term. ”

Anyway, we wouldn’t have to even think about strategic voting if we had a proper electoral system like proportional represention rather than this garbage British parliamentary system.

Turdeau made electoral reform his #1, iron-clad, guaranteed promise but he’s decided “fuck that shit” and is now focused on doing business with mass murdering, communist gangsters.

Sunny ways, bitches!

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YVR

“Turdeau made electoral reform his #1, iron-clad, guaranteed promise but he’s decided “fuck that shit””

Shocking. The party not in power trying to get elected makes a bunch of promises they renege on once elected.

When you become the party in power the existing rules all of a sudden favour you. Same thing couldn’t happen here in BC, right?

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Shut It Down Already

Like promises to “defeat ISIS within 30 days”? That sort of thing?

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Oracle

Don’t worry. The US Military will be keeping a keen eye on HAM central (China). I’d worry about them more than stuff in the Mideast if I were you.

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Shut It Down Already

So I shouldn’t worry about broken/dumb promises depending on who made the commitment?

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Best place on meth

Not just any promise, commie boy’s #1 promise.

Guaranteed.

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Oracle

You should be worried about the USA military in the South China Sea.

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patriotz

“Same thing couldn’t happen here in BC, right?”

You mean Liberals not keeping their promises? Already happened.

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Oracle

Who owns McLeans?

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Sebastien

1346 Crestlawn Drive, Burnaby
Feb 2:$1,980,000
Apr 23: $1,488,000
Change: – 492,000 -25%
Assessment: $1,656,000

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paulb

New
287
Price Change
47
Sold
233

TI:8556

https://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul/

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Oracle

Trudeau has just lifted the 2 yr wait before becoming PR in marriages.

Now:

Foreign student wants to buy $5 million house.

Step 1: Marry Local and buy her a $100,000 ring. Immediate PR
Step 2: Buy the house and avoid paying the $750,000 foreign buyers tax
Step 3: Divorce on grounds that spouse spends too much time in China

New industry about to sprout up in Richmond.

Un Fucking believable what Trudeau Liberals are doing. Enabling the law breakers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-immigration-marriage-fraud-1.4084865

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Oracle

PR rates are going to go through the roof no matter who is elected now. The FBT is irrelevant now.

Canada has been sold.

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Sebastien

One more argument to vote Green.

If you take out the FBT, the Greens’ plan is much better because they’ll jack up the PTT and cap the cap gains.

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Sebastien

You’re omitting a lot of things here. Think about it.

Imagine you’re a drug-lord from Guangzhou and you send your child in Vancouver to launder your fortune by buying 10 houses. Then, overnight, you have a white daughter in law that can milk half of your child’s fortune and demand insane amounts of alimony for life. Smart move?

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Abdul Lahazi

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/iconic-vancouver-outdoor-store-3-vets-closing-after-70-years-in-business-1.4084234?cmp=rss
Jerry Wolfman said a land developer approached the family earlier this year, in the hopes they would want to sell the building at 2200 Yukon Street. “They came with an overwhelming offer and we just couldn’t refuse it,” he said.
The land is assessed at $12 million and they probably got at least 16 million. It doesn’t pay to have a functional business in Vancouver any more when you can make more on the land than running a viable business.

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Combat roach

When it rains it pours or one shit never comes alone. Trump driving Canada to China But the Trudeau government’s preoccupation with how to deal with the Trump administration has stalled its much-vaunted re-engagement with China over the last five months, said Paul Evans, a China relations expert at the University of British Columbia. The “surge” of this past week, which included Finance Minister Bill Morneau joining Champagne in Beijing for the start of a high-level political and economic dialogue with China’s vice premier, came at an opportune time, Evans said. “China’s curiosity about Canada right now is a lot bigger than softwood lumber,” said Evans, who was also in Beijing this week. Trump’s anti-Canadian trade tirades could soften the ambivalence many Canadians feel about deepening economic co-operation with China, he said. “Trump has accentuated the necessity for Canada to… Read more »

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Oracle

Part of me wants Trudeau to sign a free trade deal with China.

It will be so one sided (we have nothing to gain from it) that Canada will turn into a 3rd world country very fast.

Only through peoples misery will the slaves rise up.

Sign it Trudeau.

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Abdul Lahazi

http://www.cknw.com/2017/04/25/greater-vancouver-home-prices-see-11-drop-report/
BUT Remax still pumps:
Even though the average residential sale price has gone down in Greater Vancouver, the report found sale prices for condos has gone up by nine per cent from $542,268 to $592,784.
As well, Remax says buyers from Vancouver and those migrating from other provinces continue to fuel activity in Fraser Valley, Kelowna, and in Victoria, because they are more affordable.

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bullwhip29

Vancouver buyers continue fueling Kelowna housing market
http://globalnews.ca/news/3402962/vancouver-buyers-continue-fueling-kelowna-housing-market/

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Best place on meth

15% Head Tax coming.

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BubbleTea

Breaking: Toronto lawyer says $1B of Ontario investors’ money lost in syndicated mortgages
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/syndicated-mortgages-losses-1.4083261
My oh my, first it was Home capital group, and now this.

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